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Have Tory MPs the bottle to oust Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was a key enabler of Brexit. Like the Lib Dems, who unlocked Pandora’s box.
    He was but so were an awful lot of other people. It took a strange coalition of disparate belief systems, a huge amount of luck and a colossal degree of ineptitude: as you say, going right back to the LibDems and the coalition Gov't.

    Even as late as 24th September 2019 Brexit might have been halted. On that fateful day when the spidery Lady Hale delivered the Supreme Court verdict, it would have been possible for Parliament to seize the moment and install a Gov't of national unity or at the least an acceptable moderate unifying Conservative. Corbyn's partly to blame that it didn't happen, of course, but not entirely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Sandpit, the three line whip abstention on a Lisbon referendum, previously promised, was not a great move either.

    But the blame there really lies with Labour reneging. That referendum would've seen a crushing defeat, and presented a moment for the British and EU political class to realise the situation and re-evaluate. Small chance, but could've seen things develop in a good way.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Sandpit said:

    Nick Clegg was the funniest, in favour of a referendum on EU membership until the day there was a chance of one actually happening.

    Not that he cares now, sitting in California counting the millions he’s being paid by a company that’s turned civil society upside down.
    Not that often that I 100% agree with you but I do now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    ydoethur said:

    You could say that about most medieval kings though. It wasn’t a job that attracted the best and brightest. Only those who emerged from the right vagina in the right order with a penis.
    Hm, is 'mediaeval' needed there? Or did the Divine Right theory sanitise British Royalty somehow from 1603?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,302
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    Difficult to see what the upside is for a potential new leader and their supporters to depose Johnson before the May elections.

    In Sunak's case it is. As the economy falters his gloss wears off.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Heathener said:

    He was but so were an awful lot of other people. It took a strange coalition of disparate belief systems, a huge amount of luck and a colossal degree of ineptitude: as you say, going right back to the LibDems and the coalition Gov't.

    Even as late as 24th September 2019 Brexit might have been halted. On that fateful day when the spidery Lady Hale delivered the Supreme Court verdict, it would have been possible for Parliament to seize the moment and install a Gov't of national unity or at the least an acceptable moderate unifying Conservative. Corbyn's partly to blame that it didn't happen, of course, but not entirely.
    Corbyn was a fool. His big personal opportunity was to serve as a cabinet minister in a GoNU. He would have been seen at no10, he would have been seen with a red box and a ministerial car, the world would not have ended, He could have claimed to have served the national interest. But no, sitting next to Tories for a few weeks was beyond him.
    .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114

    Freedman tickling my prejudices nicely in the Guradian:

    We need have no illusions about the Conservative party of old. We know its record. We know that Margaret Thatcher had her own kind of revolutionary zeal, just as we know the destructive impact of David Cameron’s austerity. But there were lines it dared not cross, monarchy and the union among them. This is a different animal. Brexit transformed it from a conservative party into a national-populist party. Its instincts now are those of Viktor Orbán, funnelling public money and jobs to ideological allies, ready to burn down even the most valued institutions that stand in its way. Of course, it has contempt for the people, as all populists ultimately do. It even had contempt for the Queen on the night of her greatest grief. So let’s not pretend these faults were Johnson’s alone. Brexit is the virus. Boris Johnson was only ever its most visible carrier.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/21/partygate-conservatism-corrupted-boris-johnson-brexit-monarchy-union-bbc

    This is the interesting bit

    "funnelling public money and jobs to ideological allies"

    The worst part of the whips blackmail story is not that they are doing it (which is bad enough), it's that they are doing it with public funds.

    "You only get a school if you publicly support BoZo"

    Fuck the kids...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited January 2022
    I see that Chris Boardman is encouraging more people to cycle. Both the BBC and Sky News carry a photo of him cycling ...

    ... WITHOUT a helmet.

    Stupid f-ing idiot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60092864

    p.s. I realise that this is lighting a blue touch paper to a few of you hardiest freedom-at-all-costs folk on here who think the Meatloaf approach to control is the right example
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114
    Blackmail, and misuse of public money are against the law.

    Funding for schools and hospital should never be contingent on support for this awful Prime Minister.

    The British public deserve more respect than this. Boris Johnson and his Minister are failing our country.


    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1484645537546743810
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1484632316026757130
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114
    ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Heathener said:

    Not that often that I 100% agree with you but I do now.
    The primary reason the UK quit the EU, was a failure of both UK and EU politicians over decades, to bring the people with them. All sides preferred to use the issue of EU membership to cover up their own deficiencies and implement unpopular policies, so when an opportunity was given to take back control, to coin a phrase, the British public went with it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    eek said:

    As you say, collapsing the executive after an election would probably be the quickest way to trigger a border poll - so it's probably worth pointing out prior to them doing it that it wouldn't be a good idea.
    It is the DUP that we are talking about!

    I think though they might collapse it before the elections on spurious grounds, preferring direct rule to SF.
  • Heathener said:

    And of course the more Keir Starmer winds-up the Corbynistas the better it looks for his electability with mainstream Britain.

    To witness the venom and fury of the loony left over the defection was a thing of immense wonder and joy.

    Tbh I doubt winding up the Corbynistas helps Labour's electability in any shape or form. As with Boris, antagonism to Corbyn was personal. Corbyn was seen as anti-British, obsessed by Venezuela and Palestine, far-off lands of which we know little, and, worse, pro-terrorist. All stoked up ruthlessly by CCHQ's social media campaigning in 2019. It was not based on policy. Indeed, the blue team co-opted the popular bits of Corbyn's 2017 platform.

    Christian Wakeford's defection has reduced the number of vonc voters against Boris by one, and risks convincing cynical voters that there is no point in voting next time: if MPs like Wakeford can't see any significant difference between Conservative and Labour, why bother?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    I see that Chris Boardman is encouraging more people to cycle. Both the BBC and Sky News carry a photo of him cycling ...

    ... WITHOUT a helmet.

    Stupid f-ing idiot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60092864

    p.s. I realise that this is lighting a blue touch paper to a few of you hardiest freedom-at-all-costs folk on here who think the Meatloaf approach to control is the right example

    ha! It sounds like you deliberately set-up a rumble though ! Shall I bite? ermm - I will go this far- I have done the odd triathlon in the past and have of course worn a helmet (in the bike bit) as its the rules - fair enough. When i trained for it , I sometimes wore one and sometimes did not depending on my own risk assessment (did not actually fill in a form!) of where i was cycling. So (like facemasks ) I think it should be up to the individual to decide and I woudl have thought if Chris Boardman read your post he woudl find the name calling a bit tedious and disrespectful as would any human on the end of a judging insult like that.
    As you quote Meat Loaf - Isn't the line " will you hose me down with holy water if I get to hot" just about the best line in any rock song?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114

    risks convincing cynical voters that there is no point in voting next time: if MPs like Wakeford can't see any significant difference between Conservative and Labour, why bother?

    That is one way of looking at it, The other is "I was taken in by BoZo, but I now know he is a lair and a cheater..."
  • eekeek Posts: 29,736
    Foxy said:

    It is the DUP that we are talking about!

    I think though they might collapse it before the elections on spurious grounds, preferring direct rule to SF.
    That was my point, they are so thick that I suspect the most likely reason that a border poll occurs is because the DUP accidently / without thought creates the circumstances that triggers it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Farooq said:

    To be fair, there are very few Conservatives in the "scrap the Union" camp. Misadventure is not the same as homocide.
    Aren’t they “lightweights “?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    I see that Chris Boardman is encouraging more people to cycle. Both the BBC and Sky News carry a photo of him cycling ...

    ... WITHOUT a helmet.

    Stupid f-ing idiot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60092864

    p.s. I realise that this is lighting a blue touch paper to a few of you hardiest freedom-at-all-costs folk on here who think the Meatloaf approach to control is the right example

    Also there's a deadpan link to a story Cyclist deaths soar on rural roads in England.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    Farooq said:

    To be fair, there are very few Conservatives in the "scrap the Union" camp. Misadventure is not the same as homocide.
    Or even plain homicide.
  • Jonathan said:

    Corbyn was a fool. His big personal opportunity was to serve as a cabinet minister in a GoNU. He would have been seen at no10, he would have been seen with a red box and a ministerial car, the world would not have ended, He could have claimed to have served the national interest. But no, sitting next to Tories for a few weeks was beyond him.
    .
    The opportunity was blown up by the LibDems under the innumerate Swinson, who could not see her only route to success went through Corbyn. LBJ's first rule of politics: learn to count.
  • Farooq said:

    Mogg is sadly right about that. But then, so is he a lightweight. He doesn't seem to have the energy of a Gove, or the presence of a Boris, or the easy court-holding bonhomie of a Clarke. He's a sticky rag with superficial manners.
    I think JRM is a faction leader - The world needs faction leaders in the sense they are usually loyal to the mainstream but need to be heard so the mainstream stays true to the cause. Faction leaders are slightly thuggish , the best are pragmatic but willing to displease their more powerful allies - He is that i think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited January 2022
    The sweeping “zero-tolerance” strategy that China has used to keep COVID-19 case numbers low and its economy functioning may, paradoxically, make it harder for the country to exit the pandemic.

    https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-coronavirus-pandemic-science-sports-health-261ffc8ba574dbf1cf0e456606985143
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    My own tentative itv yankee is as follows but is subject to change:-
    Ascot 1.45 Fils d'Oudaries so against you there
    Ascot 2.20 Anything for Love
    Haydock 2.35 Empire Steel
    Ascot 2.55 Knight in Dubai
    Anything for Love will have silly money on it from Meat Loaf mourners
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anything for Love will have silly money on it from Meat Loaf mourners
    It will go like a bat out of hell...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited January 2022

    The sweeping “zero-tolerance” strategy that China has used to keep COVID-19 case numbers low and its economy functioning may, paradoxically, make it harder for the country to exit the pandemic.

    https://t.co/BOu7L6xpF7

    well what a surprise ! Its the arrogance of people who think control is everything and even to the extent of controlling the impossible (ie a pandemic)- The classis King Canute issue! On this issue Boris as been about the best world leader if you can overlook his obvious double standards about parties
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    o/t fashion (perfumes) news for a change - but not when you are having breakfast.

    https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2022/jan/22/scents-and-sensibility-whats-behind-the-rise-of-extreme-smells

    'Last week, I came across a scent called Stercus. Made by perfumer Allessandro Gualtieri, Stercus is Latin for dung. “He [Gualtieri] is eccentric to say the least,” said Daniel Williams of the PR agency. “You’resitting there at a press launch and when you ask him what the smell is based around, he tells you it’s his anus.”'
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,818

    ha! It sounds like you deliberately set-up a rumble though ! Shall I bite? ermm - I will go this far- I have done the odd triathlon in the past and have of course worn a helmet (in the bike bit) as its the rules - fair enough. When i trained for it , I sometimes wore one and sometimes did not depending on my own risk assessment (did not actually fill in a form!) of where i was cycling. So (like facemasks ) I think it should be up to the individual to decide and I woudl have thought if Chris Boardman read your post he woudl find the name calling a bit tedious and disrespectful as would any human on the end of a judging insult like that.
    As you quote Meat Loaf - Isn't the line " will you hose me down with holy water if I get to hot" just about the best line in any rock song?
    Yes, I'll bite too.
    I know a bit about Chris Boardman's position on this. Which is that if we are hoping for cycling to become the norm, like in the Netherlands, we shouldn't be putting obstacles to people cycling in place. It's not the responsibility of the cyclist to armour himself up against careless drivers. Cycling should be as unremarkable a way of getting about as walking. When Chris Boardman had this role in Mamchester, he was very deliberate that promotional material should not show helmeted cyclists, but that cycling should be a normal, unremarkable way of getting about.
    Also, it doesn't help as much as you think it does. Cyclists with helmets take more risks, and drivers take more risks with helmeted cyclists. It's a zero sum game: the safer you make people, the more risks they will take.
    Also, Chris Boardman's mum was killed while cycling (by a lorry, I think). He is tragically aware of the risks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    Farooq said:

    Mogg is sadly right about that. But then, so is he a lightweight. He doesn't seem to have the energy of a Gove, or the presence of a Boris, or the easy court-holding bonhomie of a Clarke. He's a sticky rag with superficial manners.
    Superficial is right. And he isn't even a proper Cabinet Member so why we have to hear from him I dont know.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,114
    Cookie said:

    I know a bit about Chris Boardman's position on this. Which is that if we are hoping for cycling to become the norm, like in the Netherlands, we shouldn't be putting obstacles to people cycling in place. It's not the responsibility of the cyclist to armour himself up against careless drivers. Cycling should be as unremarkable a way of getting about as walking. When Chris Boardman had this role in Mamchester, he was very deliberate that promotional material should not show helmeted cyclists, but that cycling should be a normal, unremarkable way of getting about.

    Notice also the absence of lycra. Cycling in liveable cycleable cities is not about a mad dash to the next set of lights.

    https://twitter.com/brenttoderian/status/1483710392094265344
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247

    The opportunity was blown up by the LibDems under the innumerate Swinson, who could not see her only route to success went through Corbyn. LBJ's first rule of politics: learn to count.
    The LibDems would have done better under the wiley Davey than the green Swinson in the chaotic autumn of 2019, but a GONU was never going to be possible. It would have had to call an election almost immediately, and wound up with the same result as GE 2019.

    People were sick of the chaos over Brexit and just wanted it to stop. Not that it ever will, Brexit chaos now being endemic rather than pandemic.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,818
    IshmaelZ said:

    Also there's a deadpan link to a story Cyclist deaths soar on rural roads in England.
    Cyclists deaths and injuries have increased a lot in recent years - but by less, I think, than cycle miles travelled. Which means that cycling is getting proportionally safer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    kle4 said:

    Superficial is right. And he isn't even a proper Cabinet Member so why we have to hear from him I dont know.
    He's a secret SNP agent?
  • kle4 said:

    Superficial is right. And he isn't even a proper Cabinet Member so why we have to hear from him I dont know.
    Isn't a democracy all about hearing from a lot of people not just cabinet ministers ? thb the reason he gets a lot of media opportunity is that fundamentally he is quite interesting (ie he is quirky, unusual, sometimes controversial , will speak his honest opinion)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    I think JRM is a faction leader - The world needs faction leaders in the sense they are usually loyal to the mainstream but need to be heard so the mainstream stays true to the cause. Faction leaders are slightly thuggish , the best are pragmatic but willing to displease their more powerful allies - He is that i think.
    Is he though? The faction he was part of - Brexit hardliners of the awkward squad - mostly seem to still be doing their thing on the backbenches and include common critics of the government. By entering government he may have lost some factional influence with them.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,155
    ydoethur said:

    Well, ironically he did found numerous schools and colleges, including Eton and King’s College Cambridge. They were in the charge of a government of lunatics then, and nothing’s changed.

    But actually he was also of the more mundane sort. After the battle of Northampton he was found sitting under a tree singing songs about butterflies having not noticed there was a battle going on around him in which his cousin and last remaining supporter had been killed.
    His founding of Eton and Kings weren’t exactly his genius though - they were an absolute copy and paste of what Richard II allowed his chancellor William of Wykeham to do with Winchester and New College Oxford even down to copying the foundation charter and pinching half the fellows etc. not an original bone in his body….!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Scott_xP said:

    Notice also the absence of lycra. Cycling in liveable cycleable cities is not about a mad dash to the next set of lights.

    https://twitter.com/brenttoderian/status/1483710392094265344
    Cyclists care about traffic lights?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Cyclists care about traffic lights?
    Or the pedestrians crossing when the little person is green?

    I was very nearly killed by a large group of reclaim-the-streets-for-selfish-shits-in-lycra-on-bikes whose idea of demonstrating was to go through a red light/green man when I was in the middle of the road.
  • Isn't a democracy all about hearing from a lot of people not just cabinet ministers ? thb the reason he gets a lot of media opportunity is that fundamentally he is quite interesting (ie he is quirky, unusual, sometimes controversial , will speak his honest opinion)
    Speaks his honest opinions? I have yet to hear him state in public that he regards us all as fools for his personal enrichment.
  • Speaks his honest opinions? I have yet to hear him state in public that he regards us all as fools for his personal enrichment.
    so how do you infer that then ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,818
    LDLF said:

    Johnson should certainly go - not only as the one ultimately responsible for these parties taking place, but for not being forthcoming with confessions and apologies.
    One gets the impression that his regret is more that this was found out rather than the parties happened, and, in classic Corbynite fashion, he genuinely seems to blame the media for covering this.

    What I don't fully understand is the demand for him to go right this instant, and that if he doesn't go, he will tarnish the entire brand for a decade.

    After the 2019 election, we were informed that Corbyn had toxified the Labour brand and that it would not recover for a generation.

    Sir Kier, who served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and so presumably sat in many private meetings with him, discovered that the man was racist (or at the very least had a blind spot to certain forms of racism) only after the result of an enquiry and Corbyn's response to it, at which point he expelled him from the party.
    Sir Kier also devised Labour's Brexit policy for the 2019 election, which some might consider a factor in Labour's defeat, even convincing the lifelong Eurosceptic Corbyn to adopt and endorse it. Prior to that he turned down any proposed Brexit deals from the May government, even rejecting those parts that were directly copied and pasted from the Labour 2017 manifesto. He now supports, surely with great sincerity, a policy of Make Brexit Work.

    This would seem to indicate how quickly a party can reinvent itself. All it requires is politicians who can read the weather and a certain amount of pragmatism and flexibility of principle. You can even do it with someone from the old regime if they are not perceived to be tarnished by it.

    From the Tories' point of view the sensible thing to do is wait to see who else is implicated in this whole affair - whether politician or civil servant. It would be bad for them (though hilarious for everyone else) if they appoint a leader who turns out to have had their own booze up.

    Notwithstanding the above; apart from Johnson, the cabinet members who probably need to leave for a perceived 'fresh start' in the direction of the government would be people like Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab, maybe more. Others, like Truss and Javid, have served under Cameron, May and Johnson so seem to be flexible enough to stay on under a potential new regime, assuming neither became leader.

    Besides which, this site has been very entertaining during the period of Johnson's leadership of the Tories. Ever since he became leader the posts about him have been delightfully bitchy and increasingly deranged. It's a flavour of writing I shall miss when Johnson is replaced.

    Hello and welcome. Articulate first post!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    Tbh I doubt winding up the Corbynistas helps Labour's electability in any shape or form. As with Boris, antagonism to Corbyn was personal. Corbyn was seen as anti-British, obsessed by Venezuela and Palestine, far-off lands of which we know little, and, worse, pro-terrorist. All stoked up ruthlessly by CCHQ's social media campaigning in 2019. It was not based on policy. Indeed, the blue team co-opted the popular bits of Corbyn's 2017 platform.

    Christian Wakeford's defection has reduced the number of vonc voters against Boris by one, and risks convincing cynical voters that there is no point in voting next time: if MPs like Wakeford can't see any significant difference between Conservative and Labour, why bother?
    I still don't understand your basic premise. Voters commonly switch between the two so I don't see why any significant number would be baffled at the idea. Not least because he has done so because he says he does see a significant difference between them, and it's why he is switching.

    Politicians and political wonks like us get worked up about defections and overthink them. Voters just see one side losing support and the other gaining it. And competent leadership can be a big draw regardless of party labels.
  • LDLF said:

    Johnson should certainly go - not only as the one ultimately responsible for these parties taking place, but for not being forthcoming with confessions and apologies.
    One gets the impression that his regret is more that this was found out rather than the parties happened, and, in classic Corbynite fashion, he genuinely seems to blame the media for covering this.

    What I don't fully understand is the demand for him to go right this instant, and that if he doesn't go, he will tarnish the entire brand for a decade.

    After the 2019 election, we were informed that Corbyn had toxified the Labour brand and that it would not recover for a generation.

    Sir Kier, who served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and so presumably sat in many private meetings with him, discovered that the man was racist (or at the very least had a blind spot to certain forms of racism) only after the result of an enquiry and Corbyn's response to it, at which point he expelled him from the party.
    Sir Kier also devised Labour's Brexit policy for the 2019 election, which some might consider a factor in Labour's defeat, even convincing the lifelong Eurosceptic Corbyn to adopt and endorse it. Prior to that he turned down any proposed Brexit deals from the May government, even rejecting those parts that were directly copied and pasted from the Labour 2017 manifesto. He now supports, surely with great sincerity, a policy of Make Brexit Work.

    This would seem to indicate how quickly a party can reinvent itself. All it requires is politicians who can read the weather and a certain amount of pragmatism and flexibility of principle. You can even do it with someone from the old regime if they are not perceived to be tarnished by it.

    From the Tories' point of view the sensible thing to do is wait to see who else is implicated in this whole affair - whether politician or civil servant. It would be bad for them (though hilarious for everyone else) if they appoint a leader who turns out to have had their own booze up.

    Notwithstanding the above; apart from Johnson, the cabinet members who probably need to leave for a perceived 'fresh start' in the direction of the government would be people like Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab, maybe more. Others, like Truss and Javid, have served under Cameron, May and Johnson so seem to be flexible enough to stay on under a potential new regime, assuming neither became leader.

    Besides which, this site has been very entertaining during the period of Johnson's leadership of the Tories. Ever since he became leader the posts about him have been delightfully bitchy and increasingly deranged. It's a flavour of writing I shall miss when Johnson is replaced.

    Excellent post and welcome
  • Another policing disgrace. Action fraud should be renamed No Action Fraud.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60085936

    Why not have one central fraud agency, that deals with fraud from start to finish instead of half centralising it but then farming it back out to local bobbies. The vast majority of fraud is international rather than local anyway, why does it need to touch a local force?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    What on Earth are they thinking in Germany?

    More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    Isn't a democracy all about hearing from a lot of people not just cabinet ministers ? thb the reason he gets a lot of media opportunity is that fundamentally he is quite interesting (ie he is quirky, unusual, sometimes controversial , will speak his honest opinion)
    I think you've taken me a bit too literally. What I mean is why does the government put him up so often to speak for them when he is divisive even for the government and a rather junior figure within it?

    Being quirky, unusual and controversial is a good reason for the media to want to hear from him, i think hed be a fun commentator, but those are not descriptors a government should want from people it is putting up - that's why those who are 'safe hands' get the media round on difficult periods.
  • so how do you infer that then ?
    His sneering, contempt, and lack of ethics?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106

    The sweeping “zero-tolerance” strategy that China has used to keep COVID-19 case numbers low and its economy functioning may, paradoxically, make it harder for the country to exit the pandemic.

    https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-coronavirus-pandemic-science-sports-health-261ffc8ba574dbf1cf0e456606985143

    Likely New Zealand will have this issue as well…
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anything for Love will have silly money on it from Meat Loaf mourners
    @stodge @MoonRabbit

    My bet for today. My birthday , 21 again , so looking to win but will not make me rich.
    I will enjoy first football match for a while, off to see Ayr United v St Mirren in Scottish cup.
    Also put a small amount for nostalgia re Meat Loaf.
    Trixie
    Irish Hill 12:35 Ascot
    Shishkin 15:35 Ascot
    Galia Des Liteaux 16:05 Ascot

    Single
    Outlaw Peter 12:58 Taunton

    Good luck to all on the nags.
  • His sneering, contempt, and lack of ethics?
    which he is not that fussed about hiding - hence sorta my point
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Welcome to PB, Mr. LDLF.

    Mr. Sandpit, they're addicted to Vladdy's sweet, sweet gas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    edited January 2022
    Carnyx said:

    He's a secret SNP agent?
    Well the villain of The King's Man was a Scot pretending to be a posh English toff so I guess it is possible.
  • malcolmg said:

    @stodge @MoonRabbit

    My bet for today. My birthday , 21 again , so looking to win but will not make me rich.
    I will enjoy first football match for a while, off to see Ayr United v St Mirren in Scottish cup.
    Also put a small amount for nostalgia re Meat Loaf.
    Trixie
    Irish Hill 12:35 Ascot
    Shishkin 15:35 Ascot
    Galia Des Liteaux 16:05 Ascot

    Single
    Outlaw Peter 12:58 Taunton

    Good luck to all on the nags.
    Happy birthday Malc. Hope you have a great day and a few winners.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    Farooq said:

    Most do, yes. 16% of cyclists run red lights according to one study.
    That's a pretty high number. Was that observed or self reported? As if the latter the real figure would be higher.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    malcolmg said:

    @stodge @MoonRabbit

    My bet for today. My birthday , 21 again , so looking to win but will not make me rich.
    I will enjoy first football match for a while, off to see Ayr United v St Mirren in Scottish cup.
    Also put a small amount for nostalgia re Meat Loaf.
    Trixie
    Irish Hill 12:35 Ascot
    Shishkin 15:35 Ascot
    Galia Des Liteaux 16:05 Ascot

    Single
    Outlaw Peter 12:58 Taunton

    Good luck to all on the nags.
    Happy birthday Malky! Grey but mild and dry over here.
  • which he is not that fussed about hiding - hence sorta my point
    Being unfussed about looking guilty is not the same as being honest.
  • LDLF said:

    Johnson should certainly go - not only as the one ultimately responsible for these parties taking place, but for not being forthcoming with confessions and apologies.
    One gets the impression that his regret is more that this was found out rather than the parties happened, and, in classic Corbynite fashion, he genuinely seems to blame the media for covering this.

    What I don't fully understand is the demand for him to go right this instant, and that if he doesn't go, he will tarnish the entire brand for a decade.

    After the 2019 election, we were informed that Corbyn had toxified the Labour brand and that it would not recover for a generation.

    Sir Kier, who served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and so presumably sat in many private meetings with him, discovered that the man was racist (or at the very least had a blind spot to certain forms of racism) only after the result of an enquiry and Corbyn's response to it, at which point he expelled him from the party.
    Sir Kier also devised Labour's Brexit policy for the 2019 election, which some might consider a factor in Labour's defeat, even convincing the lifelong Eurosceptic Corbyn to adopt and endorse it. Prior to that he turned down any proposed Brexit deals from the May government, even rejecting those parts that were directly copied and pasted from the Labour 2017 manifesto. He now supports, surely with great sincerity, a policy of Make Brexit Work.

    This would seem to indicate how quickly a party can reinvent itself. All it requires is politicians who can read the weather and a certain amount of pragmatism and flexibility of principle. You can even do it with someone from the old regime if they are not perceived to be tarnished by it.

    From the Tories' point of view the sensible thing to do is wait to see who else is implicated in this whole affair - whether politician or civil servant. It would be bad for them (though hilarious for everyone else) if they appoint a leader who turns out to have had their own booze up.

    Notwithstanding the above; apart from Johnson, the cabinet members who probably need to leave for a perceived 'fresh start' in the direction of the government would be people like Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab, maybe more. Others, like Truss and Javid, have served under Cameron, May and Johnson so seem to be flexible enough to stay on under a potential new regime, assuming neither became leader.

    Besides which, this site has been very entertaining during the period of Johnson's leadership of the Tories. Ever since he became leader the posts about him have been delightfully bitchy and increasingly deranged. It's a flavour of writing I shall miss when Johnson is replaced.

    Welcome and good post. Don't worry though about the site after Johnson is defenestrated. I can assure you we can be bitchy and deranged about any politician if we really put our minds to it. In fact bitchy and deranged is often the default setting for some of us. :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    Farooq said:

    Most do, yes. 16% of cyclists run red lights according to one study.
    [deleted - my comment was a bit unkind even about cyclists on reflection]
  • Sandpit said:

    What on Earth are they thinking in Germany?

    More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
    This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU

    UK supplying Ukraine with arms and personnel will be very well received by the Baltic states
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    Cookie said:

    Yes, I'll bite too.
    I know a bit about Chris Boardman's position on this. Which is that if we are hoping for cycling to become the norm, like in the Netherlands, we shouldn't be putting obstacles to people cycling in place. It's not the responsibility of the cyclist to armour himself up against careless drivers. Cycling should be as unremarkable a way of getting about as walking. When Chris Boardman had this role in Mamchester, he was very deliberate that promotional material should not show helmeted cyclists, but that cycling should be a normal, unremarkable way of getting about.
    Also, it doesn't help as much as you think it does. Cyclists with helmets take more risks, and drivers take more risks with helmeted cyclists. It's a zero sum game: the safer you make people, the more risks they will take.
    Also, Chris Boardman's mum was killed while cycling (by a lorry, I think). He is tragically aware of the risks.
    For years I commuted to work by bike, though no longer due to a change in duties. The key to safe cycling is safe routes in cities more than anything and few British cities have safe cycle routes. In Leicester there were a number that just disappeared at the point that they were needed, such as complex junctions and roundabouts.

    Certainly there are lots of anti-social cyclists breaking the rules of the road, and also unlit in dark clothes, but we cannot base policy on them.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564
    LDLF said:

    Johnson should certainly go - not only as the one ultimately responsible for these parties taking place, but for not being forthcoming with confessions and apologies.
    One gets the impression that his regret is more that this was found out rather than the parties happened, and, in classic Corbynite fashion, he genuinely seems to blame the media for covering this.

    What I don't fully understand is the demand for him to go right this instant, and that if he doesn't go, he will tarnish the entire brand for a decade.

    After the 2019 election, we were informed that Corbyn had toxified the Labour brand and that it would not recover for a generation.

    Sir Kier, who served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet and so presumably sat in many private meetings with him, discovered that the man was racist (or at the very least had a blind spot to certain forms of racism) only after the result of an enquiry and Corbyn's response to it, at which point he expelled him from the party.
    Sir Kier also devised Labour's Brexit policy for the 2019 election, which some might consider a factor in Labour's defeat, even convincing the lifelong Eurosceptic Corbyn to adopt and endorse it. Prior to that he turned down any proposed Brexit deals from the May government, even rejecting those parts that were directly copied and pasted from the Labour 2017 manifesto. He now supports, surely with great sincerity, a policy of Make Brexit Work.

    This would seem to indicate how quickly a party can reinvent itself. All it requires is politicians who can read the weather and a certain amount of pragmatism and flexibility of principle. You can even do it with someone from the old regime if they are not perceived to be tarnished by it.

    From the Tories' point of view the sensible thing to do is wait to see who else is implicated in this whole affair - whether politician or civil servant. It would be bad for them (though hilarious for everyone else) if they appoint a leader who turns out to have had their own booze up.

    Notwithstanding the above; apart from Johnson, the cabinet members who probably need to leave for a perceived 'fresh start' in the direction of the government would be people like Rees-Mogg, Patel and Raab, maybe more. Others, like Truss and Javid, have served under Cameron, May and Johnson so seem to be flexible enough to stay on under a potential new regime, assuming neither became leader.

    Besides which, this site has been very entertaining during the period of Johnson's leadership of the Tories. Ever since he became leader the posts about him have been delightfully bitchy and increasingly deranged. It's a flavour of writing I shall miss when Johnson is replaced.

    Welcome.

    Oh, I'm sure we can find something else to be deranged about :)

    Reset in government is a differentl challenge to reset in opposition, and the policy challenge of 'where after Johnsonism' will be harder to get electorally right than the personality reset. Especially as the practical political foundation of the various flavours of this 12 years of Conservative government has perhaps been even shallower than that of New Labour and continuity centrism.
  • Anyway enough of me ,its Saturday - I day I like to indulge a bit of my inner rebel -so off to do a long hike with some of the route over non-public forest (for a bit of thrill and to keep the anarchist cause!) and get some provisions for it from a shop where I will present myself maskless!

    For the cause !
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anything for Love will have silly money on it from Meat Loaf mourners
    @stodge @MoonRabbit

    My bet for today. My birthday , 21 again , so looking to win but will not make me rich.
    I will enjoy first football match for a while, off to see Ayr United v St Mirren in Scottish cup.
    Also put a small amount for nostalgia re Meat Loaf.
    Trixie
    Irish Hill 12:35 Ascot
    Shishkin 15:35 Ascot
    Galia Des Liteaux 16:05 Ascot

    Single
    Outlaw Peter 12:58 Taunton

    Good luck to all on the nags.

    Happy birthday Malc. Hope you have a great day and a few winners.
    Cheers
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    Pro_Rata said:

    Welcome.

    Oh, I'm sure we can find something else to be deranged about :)

    Reset in government is a differentl challenge to reset in opposition, and the policy challenge of 'where after Johnsonism' will be harder to get electorally right than the personality reset. Especially as the practical political foundation of the various flavours of this 12 years of Conservative government has perhaps been even shallower than that of New Labour and continuity centrism.
    We can get back to sensible discussions, like the right punishment for putting pineapple on a pizza.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,096
    Carnyx said:

    Happy birthday Malky! Grey but mild and dry over here.
    Cheers Carnyx. Dry here as well , a bit damp but reasonable luckily no rain which means I can get out on the open terracing rather than being stuck under cover.

    PS: Update on nags. I added a single on Palmers Hill in the 2:55 Ascot for fun as well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Happy birthday, Mr. G.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,150
    edited January 2022
    kle4 said:

    That's a pretty high number. Was that observed or self reported? As if the latter the real figure would be higher.
    Quite a lot glide slow across the junction when it's a green for pedestrians. I don't have any problem with that, as long as they give way.

    I usually dismount and walk across, check my phone for any PB notifications etc ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU

    UK supplying Ukraine with arms and personnel will be very well received by the Baltic states
    It’s definitely being received very well in Kiev, and widely reported in the media. The Ukrainians (and the Baltics) know who their friends are, and thankfully the UK is one of their closest friends.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Foxy said:

    While the compulsory coalition that is mandated by the Good Friday Agreement will be quite restricting, the symbolism of SF having the First Minister will be huge.

    I think at that point the DUp would collapse the executive on the basis of A16 and the NI protocol. That won't be fixable to their satisfaction though because the issue is really the loss of Unionist dominance.

    I don't see how a border poll can be put off much longer.
    Although having SF as the largest single party would be symbolic, this poll doesn't make the case for a border poll at all.

    The Unionist total of 43%, doesn't compare badly to the 43.9% for Unionist parties in 2017 given rounding and margin of error.

    The Nationalist total of 36% is actually a bit down on the 39.8% polled in 2017.

    On the basis of this opinion poll it is the Nationalists who are losing votes to the Alliance Party, not the Unionists. Not exactly a groundswell of support for Irish Unity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ydoethur said:

    We can get back to sensible discussions, like the right punishment for putting pineapple on a pizza.
    How did we end up back talking about the death penalty?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,302
    Sandpit said:

    How did we end up back talking about the death penalty?
    That's Priti obvious, I would have thought.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Looks like All my pre-Novax withdrawl bets on the Aus Open have been voided across the whole field.

    As I said at the time I didn't see how simply voiding Novax bets in a cross matched market where the Cashout button gives you dozens of bets against the field would work.

    Betfair have clearly realised it didn't.
  • This is becoming a very serious and divisive crisis for the EU

    UK supplying Ukraine with arms and personnel will be very well received by the Baltic states
    Back in the day, of course, it was the GERMANS who seemed to enjoy invading Ukraine, not only in 1941 (Barbarossa), but also in 1918, in the wake of Brest-Litovsk. They reached as far east as Rostov, in fact.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Alistair, did you bet on Djokovic (or against) specifically, or on outsiders whose odds would shorten if he didn't play?
  • Sandpit said:

    What on Earth are they thinking in Germany?

    More importantly, what are the Baltics, Poland, Romania et al thinking of Germany, the EU and NATO right now?
    I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?

    Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,680
    RIP Thich Nhat Hanh.

    If you have not read any of his books then I recommend that you do so.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    malcolmg said:

    @stodge @MoonRabbit

    My bet for today. My birthday , 21 again , so looking to win but will not make me rich.
    I will enjoy first football match for a while, off to see Ayr United v St Mirren in Scottish cup.
    Also put a small amount for nostalgia re Meat Loaf.
    Trixie
    Irish Hill 12:35 Ascot
    Shishkin 15:35 Ascot
    Galia Des Liteaux 16:05 Ascot

    Single
    Outlaw Peter 12:58 Taunton

    Good luck to all on the nags.
    Hope the Buddies gie ye a right guid seein tae.

    Happy birthday Malkie! Nearly the same date as the Bard.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,155
    IshmaelZ said:

    Anything for Love will have silly money on it from Meat Loaf mourners
    I’m hoping now that he’s sadly died his lawyer will call a press conference and open a sealed envelope which will reveal exactly what Meatloaf wasn’t prepared to do for love. One of the great mysteries of life finally solved.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Heathener said:

    I see that Chris Boardman is encouraging more people to cycle. Both the BBC and Sky News carry a photo of him cycling ...

    ... WITHOUT a helmet.

    Stupid f-ing idiot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60092864

    p.s. I realise that this is lighting a blue touch paper to a few of you hardiest freedom-at-all-costs folk on here who think the Meatloaf approach to control is the right example

    Pedal cycling is not motorcycling. Although I do choose to wear a helmet, this is mostly out of respect and deference to the feelings of my wife.

    I've tripped over and fallen a couple of times when walking or running and I don't feel the need to wear a helmet as a pedestrian. The times when I have come off my bicycle, the helmet has made no difference at all.

    We can argue all day about whether the marginal improvement in safety afforded by a bicycle helmet is worth the reduction in the number of cyclists that obsessing over helmets (and thereby the implication that cycling is more dangerous than it is). It's a handy way for motorists to distract from their role as the main cause of harm to cyclists.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,788
    Jonathan said:

    It’s a good article, the fuck business, disrespect HM, break the BBC, scrap the Union Tory party are anything but conservative.
    What a load of crap

    Alternatively: if “Brexit was the virus’ then the British europhile Establishment were the arrogant scientists in the crappy BSL2 virology lab which fucked around with British democracy in evil ways for thirty years, seeing how it responded to referendums constantly promised then denied, injecting venom into the humanized mice of the people, until eventually this nasty virus escaped from the lab and destroyed everything the scientists had hoped for. Wankers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Alistair said:

    Looks like All my pre-Novax withdrawl bets on the Aus Open have been voided across the whole field.

    As I said at the time I didn't see how simply voiding Novax bets in a cross matched market where the Cashout button gives you dozens of bets against the field would work.

    Betfair have clearly realised it didn't.

    BF completely screwed up this market. Have they ever tried to void bets on a non-runner in play before? They must have known the chaos it would cause.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    edited January 2022

    I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?

    Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
    Surely there are plenty of routes across Germany which do not pass over massive population centres? It's a big country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    That's Priti obvious, I would have thought.
    There is no other noose today.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,625
    kle4 said:

    Surely there are plenty of routes across Germany which do not pass over massive population centres? It's a big country.
    The problem is, certainly round here, many of the routes were hastily put in and ooorly thought out, just to use the money.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,247
    Leon said:

    What a load of crap

    Alternatively: if “Brexit was the virus’ then the British europhile Establishment were the arrogant scientists in the crappy BSL2 virology lab which fucked around with British democracy in evil ways for thirty years, seeing how it responded to referendums constantly promised then denied, injecting venom into the humanized mice of the people, until eventually this nasty virus escaped from the lab and destroyed everything the scientists had hoped for. Wankers
    Brexiteers continuing to blame Remainers for the problems caused by Brexit still.

    I saw one estimate that the customs delays in Kent are adding about £400 per crossing in cost to the logistics companies, mostly in lost costs while queuing. Quite some inflationary pressure.
  • Although having SF as the largest single party would be symbolic, this poll doesn't make the case for a border poll at all.

    The Unionist total of 43%, doesn't compare badly to the 43.9% for Unionist parties in 2017 given rounding and margin of error.

    The Nationalist total of 36% is actually a bit down on the 39.8% polled in 2017.

    On the basis of this opinion poll it is the Nationalists who are losing votes to the Alliance Party, not the Unionists. Not exactly a groundswell of support for Irish Unity.
    The Nationalist vote before 2017 was:

    2015 GE 38.4%
    2014 Euros 38.5%
    2011 Assembly 41.1%
    2010 GE 42.0%
    2009 Euros 42.2%
    2007 Assembly 41.4%
    2005 GE 41.8%
    2004 Euros 42,2%
    2003 Assembly 40.5%
    2001 GE 42.7%
    1999 Euros 45.4% (!!)
    1998 Assembly 39.6%
    1997 GE 40.2%
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480
    Morning all :)

    After the catastrophic failures of the past two weeks, @stodge once again invites you to, as an alternative to throwing it out the window or down a toilet, release your cash by investing in a scheme which makes the South Sea Bubble look like a good idea.

    Yes, it's the @stodge Saturday Patent (back by unpopular demand).

    This week's equine victims guaranteed to sink faster than a Conservative poll rating are:

    1.10 Ascot: WINDS OF FIRE
    1.20 Lingfield: MARSH LAW
    2.30 Lingfield: RESILIENCE

    Have a point win or each way on these though other ways of losing your money are available.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    eek said:

    As you say, collapsing the executive after an election would probably be the quickest way to trigger a border poll - so it's probably worth pointing out prior to them doing it that it wouldn't be a good idea.
    Except that the Unionists would win a border poll. The floating voters aren't about to throw the UK transfer payments on the bonfire, let alone the NHS.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2022

    Mr. Alistair, did you bet on Djokovic (or against) specifically, or on outsiders whose odds would shorten if he didn't play?

    As my bet history has vanished into the ether I can't remember the exact order of bets but I'd backed (and laid) Novax and Medvedev.

    But then, crucially, I hit the cashout button. Which auto placed a couple of dozen bets again a host of players in the field - at this point I was green.

    When Novax was finally voided out suddenly I was red.

    The very fact that this was a cross-matched market should have meant voiding should never have been an option (because Betfair automatically creates liquidity across all options based on individual back and lays of single players - so voiding a runner would effectively void a proportion of the bets on every single player in the tournament).

    Combined with the cashout behaviour this was a disaster waiting to happen for BF.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,302
    Foxy said:

    For years I commuted to work by bike, though no longer due to a change in duties. The key to safe cycling is safe routes in cities more than anything and few British cities have safe cycle routes. In Leicester there were a number that just disappeared at the point that they were needed, such as complex junctions and roundabouts.

    Certainly there are lots of anti-social cyclists breaking the rules of the road, and also unlit in dark clothes, but we cannot base policy on them.
    Why can't we have a registration scheme and insurance for cyclists over the age of 16? Mandatory uniquely numbered hi-viz tops and mandatory third party insurance for when the undertaking cyclist accidentally tears off a £500 to replace door mirror before they anonymously disappear into the ether, like a jet black lycra ghost.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    boulay said:

    I’m hoping now that he’s sadly died his lawyer will call a press conference and open a sealed envelope which will reveal exactly what Meatloaf wasn’t prepared to do for love. One of the great mysteries of life finally solved.
    Alternatively you could just read the lyrics. From memory

    "And sooner or later you will be screwing around"

    No I won't do that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I get how the optics are terrible in making it look like Germany is taking Russia's side on this, but should we have requested flight paths over rather heavily populated northern Germany for planes stuffed with explosives?

    Surely such flights should take the least populated route, just in case? If the Germans were sending similarly loaded planes to Dublin for some reason, I'd prefer them not to fly right over London.
    There were plenty of ways the Germans could have assisted, but they chose not to.

    Yes, it does look like they’re taking Putin’s side, being at best ambivalent to Russia advancing right to the border of the EU and NATO, if it means the gas for German heavy industry keeps flowing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Ms. Heathener, how toxic is Labour from Corbyn's time as leader?

    Corbyn and all things Corbyn have been erased. They have no presence in the rooms in which all the important decisions are taken. If someone is still advancing "Corbyn" as their reason for not voting Labour I'd conclude they're either not paying attention or weren't voting Labour anyway.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,788
    edited January 2022
    Foxy said:

    Brexiteers continuing to blame Remainers for the problems caused by Brexit still.

    I saw one estimate that the customs delays in Kent are adding about £400 per crossing in cost to the logistics companies, mostly in lost costs while queuing. Quite some inflationary pressure.
    Not at all. Brexit is causing problems. So what

    This is not my argument. The question is What caused Brexit. It did not just appear like some magical zoonotic bug when a pangolin sodomised a fruit bat

    It came from 30 years of dangerous experiments with democratic consent, by the British elite. The analogy is precise
This discussion has been closed.