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Johnson trails Sunak by a staggering18% as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224
    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    You're not a very thorough reader, are you? I cover that in my first paragraph, using the word 'nefarious'.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    Well make your mind up, he was a "random example" 5 minutes ago. Which is it?
    My OU tutor made in quite clear how whipper operations actually work.

    I believe him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,564
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Rishi is a Winchester and Oxford educated, ex Goldman Sachs banker and son in law of a billionaire. He would be arguably the most elitist PM we have had since WW2.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that of course
    Erm, Home?
    Not as rich as Sunak.

    If you are going old elite than Home given he was from an aristocratic family, new elite Sunak
    Ok, fair enough. Sunak has married into IT pluto elite I think?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Hilary Clinton was warning us about rule by rich people *other than Hilary Clinton*
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    You're not a very thorough reader, are you? I cover that in my first paragraph, using the word 'nefarious'.
    Weasel Words
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    Well make your mind up, he was a "random example" 5 minutes ago. Which is it?
    My OU tutor made in quite clear how whipper operations actually work.

    I believe him.
    I doubt he knows anything about it better than 5th hand, and That's how it has always been does not mean That's how it ought to be for all time anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 97,614
    edited January 20

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Rishi is a Winchester and Oxford educated, ex Goldman Sachs banker and son in law of a billionaire. He would be arguably the most elitist PM we have had since WW2.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that of course
    Erm, Home?
    Not as rich as Sunak.

    If you are going old elite than Home given he was from an aristocratic family, new elite Sunak
    Ok, fair enough. Sunak has married into IT pluto elite I think?
    Home of course took over as PM after the Profumo scandal from Macmillan and only lost to Wilson narrowly, with Labour getting a majority of just 4 in 1964.

    Sunak may therefore end up the new Home anyway
  • ajbajb Posts: 42
    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.
  • eekeek Posts: 18,777

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    No - in terms of menacing the constituency. See my post at the end of the last thread. Whips suggested that rebelling could lead to a loss of party financial support for my next election campaign, and that I was risking my promotion chances. They didn't suggest that Broxtowe would in any way be adversely affected.

    I don't see why the party should in fact lavish support on habitual rebels, and it's unrealistic to think that if you rebel you'll be rewarded with a promotion, so both were I think legitimate arguments. If they'd suggested that a school in my area would suffer, that would have been a corrupt use of power.
    However, giving money to Red Wall seats does seem to be part of this Government's playbook. You only have to look at the Town Centres that have received money from the Stronger Towns Fund to think hang on...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,365
    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Having any "ringtone" is a bit nokia 3310, isn't it? I just spend 50 seconds max when I get a new phone trying to find something relatively inoffensive in the menu
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,589
    edited January 20


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
  • .
    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
  • HYUFD said:

    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support

    Passes the plausibility sniff test. replacing Johnson with Sunak roughly unwinds the Paterson Plunge and Party Precipice in Conservative fortunes, and those are two things which bear Bozza's fingerprints and not Sunak's so much.

    But it doesn't do much about the longer-term drift down by the Conservatives and up by Labour, because that's because, in various ways, the government's performance is distinctly "meh". Withered levelling up, pay rises being swallowed (and then some) by inflation, rubbish border control, tax rises on the way. And Sunak can't evade those- he's not that much of a new face who can make different big calls if he moves next door.

    So that might be the grim calculation. Johnson probably loses big from here- it's hard for PM's to rebuild their reputation after a crash like this. And my sense if that the British public has mostly reached the stage of putting BoJo's pants through the shredder and then dumping the bits out the window, because they think he's a not very nice man at all. But Sunak can only be sure of resetting things to "close, honourable defeat". Better than "humiliating landslide", but is that enough?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 26,661
    IshmaelZ said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Having any "ringtone" is a bit nokia 3310, isn't it? I just spend 50 seconds max when I get a new phone trying to find something relatively inoffensive in the menu
    I've had it for many years, created it myself instead of paying for it. It does stands out against other phones, and since it starts quietly and builds, it doesn't hammer the surroundings if I get to the phone in the first 30 seconds or so.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983
    edited January 20

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
    I can't see the comparison between Brown and Eden. Brown was a victim of Macmillan's events, dear boy, events in the shape of the global financial crisis.

    Eden was master of his own demise via Suez and, to a lesser extent, the Buster Crabb affair.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 70,705
    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    JBriskin3 said:

    IanB2 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    So we once thought.
    Blair won 2005 post most of the sleeze.
    Blair was very good on the radio 4 at lunchtime. In a completely different class to these sleazeballs. Didn't even bother to criticize Johnson despite countless invitations to do so.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,108
    edited January 20
    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224
    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    That article is from last October - not sure why you're recycling it now?

    Anyway, it's a lovely, uncritical, non-analytical and extraordinarily sycophantic paean to the wonders of Sunak; looks like it's written by one of his leadership campaign team.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 27,676
    ITV have just done a substantial hatchet job on the PM, including a discussion with a team of canvassers let by Andrew Bridgen.
    One of the canvassers, though, was still a Johnson loyalist.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    I wonder whether he has any particular reason to announce that just now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,331
    edited January 20
    Heathener said:

    From another PB.

    "Stanley Johnson was in my local in Queens Park on Monday night, drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps. I mentioned to someone that it must be tense in the Johnson family at the moment, and was reminded of an incident here last summer when someone approached Stanley in the same pub to tell him that his son was a c*nt. To which Johnson Senior wearily replied, 'Yes, I know.'"

    Brilliant :smiley:

    I don't think Jo Johnson thinks a lot of his brother either.
    He did quit his government after all. But to be fair to Boris a peerage is a great make up present. I'd forgive him for a peerage.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    edited January 20
    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. Her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and everyone is having lockdown parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.
    You're a twat. You in 1932 Berlin: We hear this yadda yadda antisemitism shit every time. Herr Hitler is the latest in a long line, etc

    PS I only said twat because it cost me £50 to site funds last time I used the expression complete and utter f------- c---
    ETA I think I meant to be talking to briskin here, quoting seems foutu
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,545
    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224
    edited January 20
    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

    Quite right too. Time to stop condemning bullying, and encourage bullies instead.

    I do feel sorry for you though, if your experience of workplaces is as you say. I must have been lucky; I've never been bullied, and have never bullied others. Despite working in the civil service for 20 years and other public sector for 20 years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,282
    IshmaelZ said:

    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. Her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and everyone is having lockdown parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.
    You're a twat. You in 1932 Berlin: We hear this yadda yadda antisemitism shit every time. Herr Hitler is the latest in a long line, etc

    PS I only said twat because it cost me £50 to site funds last time I used the expression complete and utter f------- c---
    I couldn't agree with you more. what a sad work experience he must have had. These days kids at primary schools are told exactly what to do if their parents or anyone else discomforts them. Let alone employers in the workplace. Things have changed!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 6,411
    edited January 20

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,867
    edited January 20
    IshmaelZ said:

    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404

    Yes, yes. But, returning to our main business. have you considered the Little Bognor subsample in the latest YouGov yet?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    I'm 5'8", same as Pele.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,122
    IshmaelZ said:

    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404

    TBF C4 News is giving it some proper attention.

    One of the reasons I suspect for the degree of inattention is that senior politicians throughout Europe are finding it hard to know what to say. The EU is split and has neither forces nor policy, NATO does not want to be involved if it can help it, Germany is embarrassed, the UK would like it to be an EU issue please,the USA has East Asia concerns and has no intention of getting sucked in. Russia has already invaded part of Ukraine and the world kept spinning round.


  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224

    IshmaelZ said:

    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404

    Yes, yes. But, returning to our main business. have you considered the Little Bognor subsample in the latest YouGov yet?
    Nick, you'll be pleased to hear that Little Bognor is definitely swinging towards Labour, as the Brighton Labourites spread inexorably westward.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,549
    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404

    TBF C4 News is giving it some proper attention.

    One of the reasons I suspect for the degree of inattention is that senior politicians throughout Europe are finding it hard to know what to say. The EU is split and has neither forces nor policy, NATO does not want to be involved if it can help it, Germany is embarrassed, the UK would like it to be an EU issue please,the USA has East Asia concerns and has no intention of getting sucked in. Russia has already invaded part of Ukraine and the world kept spinning round.


    It makes me proud to be British. Putin is getting a lesson on what happens when you poison British citizens.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Incredible moment, from where I'm sitting --- Britain is intervening significantly in Ukraine, on the edge of a major European war, with an arms lift -- but the British debate has never felt more insular or wrapped up in itself. Media and political London hardly noticing this.

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1484201487723110404

    Yes, yes. But, returning to our main business. have you considered the Little Bognor subsample in the latest YouGov yet?
    Nick, you'll be pleased to hear that Little Bognor is definitely swinging towards Labour, as the Brighton Labourites spread inexorably westward.
    That would take them into The Solent, no?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,053
    Exclusive: Nadhim Zahawi has intervened to stop overcautious local health bosses reinstating masks in classrooms

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17385033/plan-to-stop-kids-being-back-into-masks?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809
    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,108

    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

    Quite right too. Time to stop condemning bullying, and encourage bullies instead.

    I do feel sorry for you though, if your experience of workplaces is as you say. I must have been lucky; I've never been bullied, and have never bullied others. Despite working in the civil service for 20 years and other public sector for 20 years.
    I don't think you intended to be sarcastic as it is not like you, I assume you mistyped your first sentence.

    I've never actually been bullied, nor do I think I have done it myself, so I'm not asking for sympathy. I've just seen it continuously occur to other people. Perhaps the problem is that 'bullying', like 'abuse' is a nebulous term, it means different things to different people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 18,867
    ajb said:

    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.

    Do they do them by area if one wishes? Might be worth PB (which is a business, surely) do a constituency poll for £80 next time there's a close by-election.

    Mind you, the big companies aren't that expensive either. I've commissioned several (national) polls for my day job from opinium, YouGov, etc. for a few hundred quid. One, in Scotland, showing strong disapproval of live animal exports from supporters of all parties, may have helped flip the SNP position (they were strongly pro-exports, until suddenly they weren't), though a Judicial Review we were doing may have helped too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 44,589
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,122
    edited January 20

    HYUFD said:

    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support

    Passes the plausibility sniff test. replacing Johnson with Sunak roughly unwinds the Paterson Plunge and Party Precipice in Conservative fortunes, and those are two things which bear Bozza's fingerprints and not Sunak's so much.

    But it doesn't do much about the longer-term drift down by the Conservatives and up by Labour, because that's because, in various ways, the government's performance is distinctly "meh". Withered levelling up, pay rises being swallowed (and then some) by inflation, rubbish border control, tax rises on the way. And Sunak can't evade those- he's not that much of a new face who can make different big calls if he moves next door.

    So that might be the grim calculation. Johnson probably loses big from here- it's hard for PM's to rebuild their reputation after a crash like this. And my sense if that the British public has mostly reached the stage of putting BoJo's pants through the shredder and then dumping the bits out the window, because they think he's a not very nice man at all. But Sunak can only be sure of resetting things to "close, honourable defeat". Better than "humiliating landslide", but is that enough?
    Good argument. However it seems to me that Sunak has it unless one of two things happen: Tory MPs realise that the current government is tainted as a whole by the allegations, and the more senior the worse it is. So None Of The Above is the only answer.

    And/or Sunak's shine comes off before Boris goes. And this could be soon, what with debt, tax, borrowing, inflation all at maximal levels.

    It may be wise to accept silently that the next election is lost anyway, and that it is a good one for the Tories to lose, as among other things we need a moderate centre left coalition to set the post Brexit agenda, who can go and do things without either a headbanger wing stopping them, or the baggage of being the party that did Brexit.

    And let Hunt or Tugendhat be the one who does the gracious losing.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,143

    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

    Quite right too. Time to stop condemning bullying, and encourage bullies instead.

    I do feel sorry for you though, if your experience of workplaces is as you say. I must have been lucky; I've never been bullied, and have never bullied others. Despite working in the civil service for 20 years and other public sector for 20 years.
    I worked in a private school for 15 years and I can confirm that bullying used to take place there. Obviously not physical, but psychological mainly. It was the usual power relationship. Sadly the management had the leverage because of the reference system and the headteacher mafia in the sector. There were many instances of unofficial phone calls between headteachers, irrespective of the contents of references.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive: Nadhim Zahawi has intervened to stop overcautious local health bosses reinstating masks in classrooms

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17385033/plan-to-stop-kids-being-back-into-masks?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    Good for him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,564

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823

    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

    Quite right too. Time to stop condemning bullying, and encourage bullies instead.

    I do feel sorry for you though, if your experience of workplaces is as you say. I must have been lucky; I've never been bullied, and have never bullied others. Despite working in the civil service for 20 years and other public sector for 20 years.
    I worked in a private school for 15 years and I can confirm that bullying used to take place there. Obviously not physical, but psychological mainly. It was the usual power relationship. Sadly the management had the leverage because of the reference system and the headteacher mafia in the sector. There were many instances of unofficial phone calls between headteachers, irrespective of the contents of references.
    There is one private school in Cannock. It provides around 10% of all Union casework in southern Staffordshire even though it only has about 25 staff.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,860
    tlg86 said:
    Guido has always been so aligned with the Aaron Banks axis that I wouldn't remotely trust his excerpting on this.

    This has nothing at all to do with the fact that Carole is my slightly guilty crush.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 20
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 49,564
    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    No. Because it leaves out all those on other benefits.

    Again.

    All through the pandemic those on other benefits were ignored.

    What is it with Sunak?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    Jesus, how hard is this?

    If you don't like how things are VOTE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 74,331
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support

    Passes the plausibility sniff test. replacing Johnson with Sunak roughly unwinds the Paterson Plunge and Party Precipice in Conservative fortunes, and those are two things which bear Bozza's fingerprints and not Sunak's so much.

    But it doesn't do much about the longer-term drift down by the Conservatives and up by Labour, because that's because, in various ways, the government's performance is distinctly "meh". Withered levelling up, pay rises being swallowed (and then some) by inflation, rubbish border control, tax rises on the way. And Sunak can't evade those- he's not that much of a new face who can make different big calls if he moves next door.

    So that might be the grim calculation. Johnson probably loses big from here- it's hard for PM's to rebuild their reputation after a crash like this. And my sense if that the British public has mostly reached the stage of putting BoJo's pants through the shredder and then dumping the bits out the window, because they think he's a not very nice man at all. But Sunak can only be sure of resetting things to "close, honourable defeat". Better than "humiliating landslide", but is that enough?
    Good argument. However it seems to me that Sunak has it unless one of two things happen: Tory MPs realise that the current government is tainted as a whole by the allegations, and the more senior the worse it is. So None Of The Above is the only answer.

    And/or Sunak's shine comes off before Boris goes. And this could be soon, what with debt, tax, borrowing, inflation all at maximal levels.

    It may be wise to accept silently that the next election is lost anyway, and that it is a good one for the Tories to lose, as among other things we need a moderate centre left coalition to set the post Brexit agenda, who can go and do things without either a headbanger wing stopping them, or the baggage of being the party that did Brexit.

    And let Hunt or Tugendhat be the one who does the gracious losing.
    No such thing as a good election to lose. Sunak stopping the rot might salvage things just enough even if a big hit is taken. Surely worth trying for the tories
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    With all his many faults, I have never seen Lloyd George be accused of being a chimpanzee before.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    Delighted to see subsamples becoming so fashionable.

    I’ve never been a trendsetter before.

    Only took eighteen years.
    It's not a subsample, it's the breakdown of the MRP.

    Guess what, the sample size is 9,602. This MRP strategy allowed them predict the winners of 95% of the seats at GE2019.
    It's not a “subsample”, it's a “breakdown”.

    Noted.

    I’ll “split”.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 15,834
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    So Lloyd George Knew my Mother is the key point?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,015

    ajb said:

    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.

    Do they do them by area if one wishes? Might be worth PB (which is a business, surely) do a constituency poll for £80 next time there's a close by-election.

    Mind you, the big companies aren't that expensive either. I've commissioned several (national) polls for my day job from opinium, YouGov, etc. for a few hundred quid. One, in Scotland, showing strong disapproval of live animal exports from supporters of all parties, may have helped flip the SNP position (they were strongly pro-exports, until suddenly they weren't), though a Judicial Review we were doing may have helped too.
    I'm not sure about the Google option. If it is the same one, they have them on YouTube before the music video starts and I usually hit any old answer just to click straight through
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,224

    darkage said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    In my experience, bullying has always been part of the workplace. I've seen it continuously. The outing and condemnation of 'bullies' is typically just a performance for public consumption, like the outing of corruption in China. When Priti Patel was stitched up by the civil service it followed this playbook perfectly, she was no different to other Ministers in having tantrums at civil servants; the bullying allegations were perhaps an attempt by the civil service to exert some control over her. On this analysis, her continued presence is a consequence of changes in the balance of power, politically she was allowed to prevail as the government were at war with the civil service. Maybe we don't hear of such allegations anymore, because the civil service is seen as more compliant; senior heads have rolled over the last couple of years; and people are having lockdown 'work' parties together.

    Having said all that, something has changed in the culture, particularly in the last five or so years, in that more egregious and aggressive forms of bullying are viewed as 'abuse' and are not tolerated.

    Quite right too. Time to stop condemning bullying, and encourage bullies instead.

    I do feel sorry for you though, if your experience of workplaces is as you say. I must have been lucky; I've never been bullied, and have never bullied others. Despite working in the civil service for 20 years and other public sector for 20 years.
    I worked in a private school for 15 years and I can confirm that bullying used to take place there. Obviously not physical, but psychological mainly. It was the usual power relationship. Sadly the management had the leverage because of the reference system and the headteacher mafia in the sector. There were many instances of unofficial phone calls between headteachers, irrespective of the contents of references.
    That's private schools for you - hotbeds of bullying. The state sector - not so much. And I'm being serious - management wouldn't get away with it, especially if you were in one of the teacher unions. HR practices are more 'modern' than in private schools, as well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,869
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    Pops in to sample conversation.

    Frowns.

    Pops off again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    edited January 20

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    Pops in to sample conversation.

    Frowns.

    Pops off again.
    Lloyd George was famous for the way he frequently popped in and popped off, of course.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 13,809

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,296
    MrEd said:

    ajb said:

    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.

    Do they do them by area if one wishes? Might be worth PB (which is a business, surely) do a constituency poll for £80 next time there's a close by-election.

    Mind you, the big companies aren't that expensive either. I've commissioned several (national) polls for my day job from opinium, YouGov, etc. for a few hundred quid. One, in Scotland, showing strong disapproval of live animal exports from supporters of all parties, may have helped flip the SNP position (they were strongly pro-exports, until suddenly they weren't), though a Judicial Review we were doing may have helped too.
    I'm not sure about the Google option. If it is the same one, they have them on YouTube before the music video starts and I usually hit any old answer just to click straight through
    Looking through the Wikipedia pages of old polls, I note that PB did commission a number of polls in the early days.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,129

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    From Government POV, not a priority voter cohort.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    They don't vote Tory, unlike pensioners.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    So Lloyd George Knew my Mother is the key point?
    Couldn't possibly comment (I may be missing an allusion there, however).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    edited January 20
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    With all his many faults, I have never seen Lloyd George be accused of being a chimpanzee before.
    As well as Spartacus, we are all chimpanzees (albeit rather juvenile, hairless and skinny ones).
  • Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    Pops in to sample conversation.

    Frowns.

    Pops off again.
    Are you feeling left out? If it helps, thanks to Big Bang I can relate rabbits to the conversation. Apparently rabbits one of the few mammals whose scrotum is in front of the penis.
  • Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    They don't vote Tory, unlike pensioners.
    But either way the £20 has been more than returned to anyone on UC who is working thanks to the cut in the taper rate.

    Anyone who isn't, should get a job.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 12,983
    edited January 20
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    So Lloyd George Knew my Mother is the key point?
    Couldn't possibly comment (I may be missing an allusion there, however).
    Lloyd George knew my father is a traditional reference to nepotism. There is even a song about it. Remarkably, it is also (though via a descendent of that Lloyd George) how a current minister got his big break. (Hint: Jacob Rees-Mogg.)

    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
  • ajbajb Posts: 42

    ajb said:

    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.

    Do they do them by area if one wishes? Might be worth PB (which is a business, surely) do a constituency poll for £80 next time there's a close by-election.

    Mind you, the big companies aren't that expensive either. I've commissioned several (national) polls for my day job from opinium, YouGov, etc. for a few hundred quid. One, in Scotland, showing strong disapproval of live animal exports from supporters of all parties, may have helped flip the SNP position (they were strongly pro-exports, until suddenly they weren't), though a Judicial Review we were doing may have helped too.
    They do do them by area, but not down to the level of constituencies. Areas like 'East Midlands' or 'Scotland'


  • ajbajb Posts: 42
    MrEd said:

    ajb said:

    Have any of you guys used Google Consumer Surveys? The thing is that for a £8, you can get 100 people to answer your chosen single question (and more people pro-rata). Like the polling companies, and unlike more crappy website polls, they try to make the sample demographically representative and do some weighting (though they almost don't put in the same degree of work as the pollsters).

    100 people is not enough to get a quantative result, but it will answer 'which is better' if the gap is big enough. And £8 is low enough that you can even put one in for amusement value. For example, I was thinking it might be amusing to put in a poll like the one in the header, only with Johnson vs Jeremy Clarkson. Or Baldrick. If any of you are thinking of betting on the more obscure successor candidates, that don't show up in the work of real pollsters, might be worth a look. Although they don't do audience selection down to the level of party membership, sadly (you can ask a prequalifying question, but more than 1 question is for some reason much more expensive).

    There are some weird terms - they don't want ordinary consumers using it so you have to warrant that you are a business. Not sure why. Push polling is not allowed, Pollitical polls also have to have an 'I'd rather not say' option.

    (The reason I haven't put in a joke poll recently is that google can be a bit vicious about closing accounts if they think you have violated their terms, and I don't have a suitable business that might want the results. IE they take down your email as well. Although I think normally that's only if they think you are trying to pull a scam of some kind ).

    But it can be oddly fun, because the results come in over the course of a few days, and even though you know the first 10 answers are not significant at all, it's surprisingly hard not to start speculating about the answer based on them.

    Do they do them by area if one wishes? Might be worth PB (which is a business, surely) do a constituency poll for £80 next time there's a close by-election.

    Mind you, the big companies aren't that expensive either. I've commissioned several (national) polls for my day job from opinium, YouGov, etc. for a few hundred quid. One, in Scotland, showing strong disapproval of live animal exports from supporters of all parties, may have helped flip the SNP position (they were strongly pro-exports, until suddenly they weren't), though a Judicial Review we were doing may have helped too.
    I'm not sure about the Google option. If it is the same one, they have them on YouTube before the music video starts and I usually hit any old answer just to click straight through
    Yeah they record how quickly the respondent answers, so they can filter out people like you :wink:
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,599

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    They don't vote Tory, unlike pensioners.
    But either way the £20 has been more than returned to anyone on UC who is working thanks to the cut in the taper rate.

    Anyone who isn't, should get a job.
    That's vile

    Or should I simply state that you, Phillip, are vile
  • Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    They don't vote Tory, unlike pensioners.
    But either way the £20 has been more than returned to anyone on UC who is working thanks to the cut in the taper rate.

    Anyone who isn't, should get a job.
    That's vile

    Or should I simply state that you, Phillip, are vile
    It's vile to think people who aren't working should get a job? When we have full employment, record employment, major vacancies and companies eager to recruit?

    I'm quite prepared to accept that epithet from you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    So Lloyd George Knew my Mother is the key point?
    Couldn't possibly comment (I may be missing an allusion there, however).
    Lloyd George knew my father is a traditional reference to nepotism. There is even a song about it. Remarkably, it is also (though via a descendent of that Lloyd George) how a current minister got his big break. (Hint: Jacob Rees-Mogg.)

    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Aah, thank you: the things one learns on PB (in this case one of the nicer things).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,646
    C4 News opens with the Godfather theme over the Tory Blackmail story

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    The headline that felled the Tory regime?

    No10 ‘offered to ease Covid rules for Prince Philip’s funeral but Queen declined because it wouldn’t be fair’
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Rishi Sunak will win
    The Chancellor makes his colleagues look like pygmies
    BY WILL LLOYD"

    https://unherd.com/2021/10/why-rishi-sunak-will-win/

    The irony of saying the homunculus Sunak makes others look like pygmies.
    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    He's not really that short either. 5'7" I think. I'm 5'4".
    Churchill was 5'6". As was James Dean.
    As was Lloyd George.

    Although Lloyd George was famous for the size of - other things...
    His majority?
    Funny, I thought when he was in charge of Parliament its leadership was well hung.
    LLoyd George (specifically):

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-chimpanzees-have-big-testes--and-mandrills-have-small-ones-65743

    "Chimpanzees and bonobos, which for the most part lack ornamentation, are by nature promiscuous species, females typically mating with multiple males. This means that within the female reproductive system, there’s competition among sperm to fertilize the egg. To secure better chances of outcompeting the gametes of rival males, it pays off to produce more sperm, and growing larger testes is one way to do that, Lüpold explains."
    So Lloyd George Knew my Mother is the key point?
    Couldn't possibly comment (I may be missing an allusion there, however).
    Lloyd George knew my father is a traditional reference to nepotism. There is even a song about it. Remarkably, it is also (though via a descendent of that Lloyd George) how a current minister got his big break. (Hint: Jacob Rees-Mogg.)

    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Aah, thank you: the things one learns on PB (in this case one of the nicer things).
    Never google obscure words used by SeanT.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921
    Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    They don't vote Tory, unlike pensioners.
    But either way the £20 has been more than returned to anyone on UC who is working thanks to the cut in the taper rate.

    Anyone who isn't, should get a job.
    That's vile

    Or should I simply state that you, Phillip, are vile
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/20/bread-and-butter-thing-food-club-manchester-cost-of-living-crisis
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 20,921

    The headline that felled the Tory regime?

    No10 ‘offered to ease Covid rules for Prince Philip’s funeral but Queen declined because it wouldn’t be fair’

    Not too soon, one hopes. They've hardly worked through most of the cast in this play.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 18,646

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    The triple lock for pensioners was broken, despite it being a manifesto commitment.
    Suspended for 2 years, not broken, and in those 2 years it will be very high inflation so 5% rises likely. Why not the same for poorer UC claimants?
    Its rising by 3% in April 2022 by then inflation will be well over double, and heading for triple that
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,303

    HYUFD said:

    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support

    Passes the plausibility sniff test. replacing Johnson with Sunak roughly unwinds the Paterson Plunge and Party Precipice in Conservative fortunes, and those are two things which bear Bozza's fingerprints and not Sunak's so much.

    But it doesn't do much about the longer-term drift down by the Conservatives and up by Labour, because that's because, in various ways, the government's performance is distinctly "meh". Withered levelling up, pay rises being swallowed (and then some) by inflation, rubbish border control, tax rises on the way. And Sunak can't evade those- he's not that much of a new face who can make different big calls if he moves next door.

    So that might be the grim calculation. Johnson probably loses big from here- it's hard for PM's to rebuild their reputation after a crash like this. And my sense if that the British public has mostly reached the stage of putting BoJo's pants through the shredder and then dumping the bits out the window, because they think he's a not very nice man at all. But Sunak can only be sure of resetting things to "close, honourable defeat". Better than "humiliating landslide", but is that enough?
    Humiliating landslide enough for most.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,120
    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    Reading all the reports of businesses "calling staff back to desks", not a single one is suggesting 100% office based work as the way forward. All are talking hybrid with 50% office work and 50% home work and that's the way of the future or the "new normal" as it is termed.

    Looking at today's release of passenger transport numbers, national rail passenger numbers are just over half pre-Covid and London Underground at just under half pre-Covid. We are told there has been a "rush" back today but the truth is much more prosaic - a small increase but still a long way off pre-Covid days.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    Reading all the reports of businesses "calling staff back to desks", not a single one is suggesting 100% office based work as the way forward. All are talking hybrid with 50% office work and 50% home work and that's the way of the future or the "new normal" as it is termed.

    Looking at today's release of passenger transport numbers, national rail passenger numbers are just over half pre-Covid and London Underground at just under half pre-Covid. We are told there has been a "rush" back today but the truth is much more prosaic - a small increase but still a long way off pre-Covid days.

    I was amused to note the roads round here were much quieter today than they were yesterday.

    I suspect as much as anything that was due to the heavy ice most people had to clear, but it was still ironic,
  • VAR rocks @TheScreamingEagles

    2 goals for Jota and that's a deserved second.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 21,053
    Keep thinking about govt threatening to withhold £ for a high school in Radcliffe, which has been *desperate* for one for years. The freewheeling contempt. It’s the same feeling I had when I watched Jacob Rees Mogg’s comments about Douglas Ross. You see how you’re seen
    https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1484276627504783365
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 31,317
    edited January 20

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,089
    If all that the critics of Sunak can muster at this point is to damn him with faint praise, I'd say the Tories would be daft not to elect him. Though financially I'd prefer Liz Truss...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 19,486

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    ESA is part of Universal Credit.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,453
    edited January 20
    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Yes, I thought it was a bit strange too.

    I had a brief look at the decision letter - https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-east/aquind-interconnector/ - and the crux of the matter seems to be that an alternative route, connecting to a different substation on the English side, is thought to be less disruptive, and therefore preferable. Not sure what the detailed differences are between the two, but if there is a different route that is markedly better than the other then I can see the sense in refusing this application to encourage one for the other route.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,545
    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    I had Black Dog for a while.
  • .

    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Yes, I thought it was a bit strange too.

    I had a brief look at the decision letter - https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-east/aquind-interconnector/ - and the crux of the matter seems to be that an alternative route, connecting to a different substation on the English side, is thought to be less disruptive, and therefore preferable. Not sure what the detailed differences are between the two, but if there is a different route that is markedly better than the other then I can see the sense in refusing this application to encourage one for the other route.
    The Russian connection might also be an issue in the current environment.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,324
    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    Oh God, I've got that guitar riff bouncing around my head now. It's gonna be there for days. Thanks @Foxy!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 47,823

    .

    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Yes, I thought it was a bit strange too.

    I had a brief look at the decision letter - https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-east/aquind-interconnector/ - and the crux of the matter seems to be that an alternative route, connecting to a different substation on the English side, is thought to be less disruptive, and therefore preferable. Not sure what the detailed differences are between the two, but if there is a different route that is markedly better than the other then I can see the sense in refusing this application to encourage one for the other route.
    The Russian connection might also be an issue in the current environment.
    If the connections for a cable between Britain and France are in Russia, they've advanced a lot further and faster than I thought.
  • Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
    I can't see the comparison between Brown and Eden. Brown was a victim of Macmillan's events, dear boy, events in the shape of the global financial crisis.

    Eden was master of his own demise via Suez and, to a lesser extent, the Buster Crabb affair.
    Chuchill thought Eden just was NOT up to the job of replacing him. And he was right.

    Ditto Blair with Brown.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 323
    Fundamentally, does Boris have any programme for government left now that Brexit has been 'done' and they've run out of money?

    Other than pointless (free) culture war gestures, he has nothing left.
This discussion has been closed.