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Johnson trails Sunak by a staggering18% as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com

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  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,484
    dixiedean said:

    Well indeed.
    And whose bloody fault is it that 11 years into government their flagship benefits policy still hasn't been rolled out?
    Anyone on a means-tested legacy benefit is at liberty to claim UC instead.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Foxy said:

    Literally no one in the BBC QT audience willing to speak up for Johnson.

    Right now it’s like ‘defend the indefensible’ at the end of R5s fighting talk.
    There is no defence. You can work out how they got to this point, but it doesn’t make it right.
  • Foxy said:

    Literally no one in the BBC QT audience willing to speak up for Johnson.

    To be fair that is not a surprise
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609

    I would not be surprised if you are correct. I was wondering about this in a previous thread
    Bridgen who I detest was using the "B" word earlier. I think Wragg might have too. We are now in the realms of Putin or Berlusconi....or even Mugabe.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    Lloyd George knew my father is a traditional reference to nepotism. There is even a song about it. Remarkably, it is also (though via a descendent of that Lloyd George) how a current minister got his big break. (Hint: Jacob Rees-Mogg.)

    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    Lloyd George knew my father
    Father knew Lloyd George
    I preferred the fact that “Bob’s your uncle” specifically referred to the fact that about 1/3 of Salisbury’s cabinet were related to him (including Arthur Balfour who was the target of the remark)
  • dixiedean said:

    Said from the start it would be a whitewash.
    And if it isn't it won't be released. The PM is that shameless.
    Sorry but it will be released in full next week
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    To be fair that is not a surprise
    Worth noting that it’s Caledonian Question Time so not exactly fertile territory for Tories.

    But, even so…
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Anyone on a means-tested legacy benefit is at liberty to claim UC instead.
    Yes but. Quite often you're worse off. So why would you?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    dixiedean said:

    Yes but. Quite often you're worse off. So why would you?
    Is that true with the recent changes to the taper?
  • We are being told to wait for the Gray report. As soon as it is released we will be told to move on and forget about it.
    The report will be released but the rest will not happen

    I expect immediate consequences for Boris and his mps
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Sorry but it will be released in full next week
    I read somewhere that only a summary will be released to the public.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    IMO The Daily Star is in serious trouble tonight, if they are calling that a world class fancy dress costume.

    And Matts actually put out a duff cartoon for once.
  • I read somewhere that only a summary will be released to the public.
    Somebody will probably leak the full thing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286

    I read somewhere that only a summary will be released to the public.
    Even if that were the case, I doubt it would remain that way for long.
  • dixiedean said:

    Said from the start it would be a whitewash.
    And if it isn't it won't be released. The PM is that shameless.
    Don't you mean a Graywash?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    The report will be released but the rest will not happen

    I expect immediate consequences for Boris and his mps
    Really? It will be heavily managed. Boris wants everyone to wait for that for a reason. He thinks he can control it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    RobD said:

    Is that true with the recent changes to the taper?
    Yes, sometimes you will be worse off moving to UC, regardless of the taper. Some people can also be better off moving to UC, it should be said.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    IMO The Daily Star is in serious trouble tonight, if they are calling that a world class fancy dress costume.

    And Matts actually put out a duff cartoon for once.

    He puts out duff cartoons very frequently.

    It’s just that he also produces sheer genius once or twice a week.
  • Foxy said:

    Literally no one in the BBC QT audience willing to speak up for Johnson.

    St Andrews and not even a teeny ripple for the Tory and his sockpuppet businessman.
    Unusual.
  • IMO The Daily Star is in serious trouble tonight, if they are calling that a world class fancy dress costume.

    And Matts actually put out a duff cartoon for once.

    15 years time whoever it is in that duck suit will more than likely be #10 press secretary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    RobD said:

    Even if that were the case, I doubt it would remain that way for long.
    Fair point. Plus a failure to officially release the whole report plays into the Opposition's hands.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Sky suggesting VONC on Wednesday after report published on Monday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    IMO The Daily Star is in serious trouble tonight, if they are calling that a world class fancy dress costume.

    And Matts actually put out a duff cartoon for once.


    What about yesterday's utterly bizarre Sun front page?

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/20/the-sun-baffles-social-media-with-pork-pie-front-page-in-support-of-johnson
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    Perhaps the mad will inherit the Earth?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570


    What about yesterday's utterly bizarre Sun front page?

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/20/the-sun-baffles-social-media-with-pork-pie-front-page-in-support-of-johnson
    It's The Sun wot's lost it.

    Night all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792


    What about yesterday's utterly bizarre Sun front page?

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/20/the-sun-baffles-social-media-with-pork-pie-front-page-in-support-of-johnson
    I saw that in the newsagent this morning and assumed it was something to do with the high priestess of the plotters who is MP for Melton Mowbray. But the slicing it up with mustard, absolutely no idea. None.

    I bought the Times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    IanB2 said:

    R4 says rebels have tape recordings of threats made by Tory whips

    I'm sure that speaks to a healthy work and team environment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Farooq said:

    By Monday it'll be "next month, folks"
    I'm getting a lot of flashbacks to the endless leaking and moaning of the Corbyn years. They've started out with more on the record, which is good, as anonymous whinging and promising things that never happen gets old quick.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited January 2022


    What about yesterday's utterly bizarre Sun front page?

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/20/the-sun-baffles-social-media-with-pork-pie-front-page-in-support-of-johnson
    Actually I liked it. 🙂

    It was a Pie chart literally, shoring up Boris by showing him ahead. At the same time Pork Pie Plotters was invented in number 10 to ridicule and turn attention on the rebels, and Team Boris in the press have willingly joined in the intimidation.

    What is there not to like about a pie chart that is actually a pie?
  • I think the media interprets Tory MPs not replying to their texts as an indication that nothing serious is happening, when the reality is that the only time Tory MPs don't fellate the media is when something serious is happening. Johnson should be terrified whenever his critics shut up.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Farooq said:

    By Monday it'll be "next month, folks"
    That’s why it needs more Norman.

    Can’t the rest of UK media investigative journalists help out? Don’t they have any contacts or any skills?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    IanB2 said:

    Perhaps the mad will inherit the Earth?

    They already have.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited January 2022
    Farooq said:

    You said a few times now that you're a Lib Dem and I've never believed you. But your praise of weird graphs is making me rethink.
    How could you doubt me Farooq!

    If I wasn’t a Libdem why would I stay up drinking all by election night and end up 🤮🤮🤮 over everything in excitement?

    Smells nearly gone now by the way.
  • Jonathan said:

    Really? It will be heavily managed. Boris wants everyone to wait for that for a reason. He thinks he can control it.
    This is out of his control

    Sky expecting confidence vote next Wednesday
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Not sure about the final sentence - but the UK
    clearly intends to raise the cost to Russia of invasion.

    Here's a time-lapse of all of the United Kingdom to #Ukraine weapons airlift flights from the morning of the 17th of January to this very minute on the 19th of January 2022. The UK has no intention of letting Ukraine fall.

    https://twitter.com/geoallison/status/1483899430378127365?s=20
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    If the Yorkshire Party had fielded a candidate you would think they’d be a councillor tonight.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269

    St Andrews and not even a teeny ripple for the Tory and his sockpuppet businessman.
    Unusual.
    Ooh QT from my home town! I should have watched it for a change. So strange to think that it used to have a Tory MP, it would be unthinkable now.
  • If the Yorkshire Party had fielded a candidate you would think they’d be a councillor tonight.
    Yes, Labour will also be marginally disappointed as they have had a cllr there in the last few years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Votes cast:

    Con: 215
    Lab: 207
    Green: 25

    I’m not sure I’d call an 8 vote majority “massive”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Foxy said:

    They already have.
    Why break with thousands of years of tradition?

    And speaking of mad, I don't know how it determines this, but my BBC homepage is a mad mix of stories - top left a story about fans returning to stadiums in Wales (where I do not live) as covid rules ease, a story about 'What is Sue Gray investigating?', fair enougj, and a story about a man using a 72 year old toaster every day in Northamptonshire (where I also do not live).

    Truly the top three things I need to know.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited January 2022

    Yes, Labour will also be marginally disappointed as they have had a cllr there in the last few years.
    Where’s HY to tell us only Boris leadership could have achieved this gain up North in labour heartlands Boris has an appeal no one else has. 🙂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Votes cast:

    Con: 215
    Lab: 207
    Green: 25

    I’m not sure I’d call an 8 vote majority “massive”.
    IDK, I knew a chap who went from a 1 vote majority to a 16 vote majority at the next election, which he considered pretty massive.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think that's deliberate.

    I'm also, despite not being a huge witchfinder, comfortable with the idea that references to Sunak's height indirectly allude to his race
    Average height in the UK for men is 5 feet 9 inches so Sunak is only slightly shorter than that if he's 5-7.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    edited January 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Average height in the UK for men is 5 feet 9 inches so Sunak is only slightly shorter than that if he's 5-7.
    If this wiki list is to be believed, the average Welshman is a full inch taller than the average Englishman.

    Curse those brythonic supermen!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_human_height_by_country#Accuracy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Farooq said:

    25th percentile. Four other men in a room with him, Sunak can expect to be taller than one and shorter than the other three.
    As someone at the same height, anecdotally it feels like I'm taller than a lot fewer than one out of four.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    This, from the NY AG's office press release about the subpoenas for Trump, Ivanka and Junior, is priceless:

    "Mr. Trump’s 2015 and 2016 financial statement reported the value of Mr. Trump’s triplex apartment as $327 million, based on the apartment having 30,000 square feet of space multiplied by a certain price per square foot. In testimony to OAG, Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg admitted that the value of Mr. Trump’s apartment was overstated by “give or take” $200 million."

    https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2022/attorney-general-james-takes-action-force-donald-j-trump-donald-trump-jr-and
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited January 2022
    Double Labour hold in Charnwood. 8% swing Con to Lab.
    18.7% UKIP and far right BDP vote last time.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    Well, the VONC we’re looking at now is purely within the Tory party. If he lost it, he’s under no obligation to make a pro-forma “I resign but offer to stay on as caretaker until my party elects a new leader” resignation to the Queen. If he loses the party VONC but refuses to resign as PM, then a proper Parliamentary VONC would have to take place, but IIRC only the LOTO can move that, so maybe SKS would prefer to see the Tories squirm. If Boris loses a parliamentary VONC but doesn’t resign after that, then the FTPA no-confidence provisions would have to be executed which would almost certainly end in a dissolution and a General Election. Only then if Boris refuses to resign would the Queen have to dismiss him.
  • Ooh QT from my home town! I should have watched it for a change. So strange to think that it used to have a Tory MP, it would be unthinkable now.
    Aside from one red-faced potholes and spendthrift SNP obsessive it was oddly subdued, as if everyone knew BJ was a complete arse and there wasn't much else to say. Christopher Brookmyre is usually quite good value but he was barely able to get a good Tory slagging rap going.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    edited January 2022
    Phillip Blond on GB News pointing out that maybe it's a good thing if a younger generation of Tory MPs have decided they don't want to go along with the traditional methods that the whips have allegedly tended to use to pressurise MPs to vote the right way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    The Party was quite a big thing, Robert.

    It's easy to forget now just how strictly enforced and complied with the lockdown regulations were then. A party of any size anywhere woud have been likely to have attracted a fair degree of attention and opprobrium.

    But at Downing Street....?
    Maybe I'm just naturally more forgiving than you are, but I think he could have survived the party. Sure, it would have been hypocritical, but he could have said:

    "All the people in attendance had been working, 16, 18 hours a day in very close proximity, working to fight this pandemic and to deliver the vaccines that saved so many lives. Given how much time they spent inside together, doing essential, lifesaving work, we took the view that the additional risk of transmission of Covid was minimal. And while that was no doubt the case, it was still wrong for us to have had the gathering."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    kle4 said:

    IDK, I knew a chap who went from a 1 vote majority to a 16 vote majority at the next election, which he considered pretty massive.
    1600% rise in support?
  • Perhaps the Tory Whips should return to yet another traditional method of subtle persuasion:

    Kicking the Belgian ambassador in the ass.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    Aside from one red-faced potholes and spendthrift SNP obsessive it was oddly subdued, as if everyone knew BJ was a complete arse and there wasn't much else to say. Christopher Brookmyre is usually quite good value but he was barely able to get a good Tory slagging rap going.
    Christopher Brookmyre (used to) write some amazing books.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    Today's video from John Campbell entitled "Freedom of information revelation".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UHvwWWcjYw
  • rcs1000 said:

    Maybe I'm just naturally more forgiving than you are, but I think he could have survived the party. Sure, it would have been hypocritical, but he could have said:

    "All the people in attendance had been working, 16, 18 hours a day in very close proximity, working to fight this pandemic and to deliver the vaccines that saved so many lives. Given how much time they spent inside together, doing essential, lifesaving work, we took the view that the additional risk of transmission of Covid was minimal. And while that was no doubt the case, it was still wrong for us to have had the gathering."
    Well, nice try, but..... :wink:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    Somebody will probably leak the full thing.
    Ms Gray is apparently allergic to email and to written documentation. She prefers to give all advice in person or over the phone.

    Why would this be any different?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    rcs1000 said:

    That's not the point.

    The point is that he lied, repeatedly.

    You know what I look for in a leader (and in an employee) - the ability to recognise when a mistake has been made, to apologise, and to move on.

    I wouldn't employ someone who lied to me - I'm a 'one lie and you're out' kind of guy. Why the fuck should we accept repeated lies from those we employ to run the country?
    Is it not subtly different in world of politics? These more honest politicians lose us the coalition on which our majority is built - this charismatic rogue known to tell porkies still wins us the election.

    If it’s certain Sunak or Truss lose the election, Boris will win it, does that change your principled stand at all?
  • Just think how far the SNP and Yes would be ahead if Sturgeon hadn't made her Festive lockdown misstep.





    https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1484319999443423239?s=20

  • rcs1000 said:

    Maybe I'm just naturally more forgiving than you are, but I think he could have survived the party. Sure, it would have been hypocritical, but he could have said:

    "All the people in attendance had been working, 16, 18 hours a day in very close proximity, working to fight this pandemic and to deliver the vaccines that saved so many lives. Given how much time they spent inside together, doing essential, lifesaving work, we took the view that the additional risk of transmission of Covid was minimal. And while that was no doubt the case, it was still wrong for us to have had the gathering."
    In isolation perhaps but most people obeyed the rules even if that meant family members unvisited in care homes, dying alone or giving birth alone. The iconic photograph of partygate is not the one of the Downing Street garden, it is the Queen isolated at Philip's funeral.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    rcs1000 said:

    Maybe I'm just naturally more forgiving than you are, but I think he could have survived the party. Sure, it would have been hypocritical, but he could have said:

    "All the people in attendance had been working, 16, 18 hours a day in very close proximity, working to fight this pandemic and to deliver the vaccines that saved so many lives. Given how much time they spent inside together, doing essential, lifesaving work, we took the view that the additional risk of transmission of Covid was minimal. And while that was no doubt the case, it was still wrong for us to have had the gathering."
    I agree with this, and am stunned he didn't realise this was his best play. It would still have attracted a lot of criticism for obvious reasons, but he should have known when the first party leaked that one of the dozens of people who saw him at the other parties would leak that. Given this, his best option was obviously to get out ahead of it and make as fulsome an apology as he could with the hope that he got some credit for being honest and taking responsibility. If that did work, then future revelations would have had much less impact because he would already have accepted he had fallen short.

    By denying it he just shreds his credibility when the truth inevitably comes out and makes the revelations hit so much harder. Totally counter-productive comms strategy.

    The parties were really bad, given 90% of the public stuck to very strict lockdown rules in early 2020 and will therefore be really stung to hear Downing St were ignoring them. But that's no reason to make the situation even worse for himself!

    And it's not like this wasn't predictable. He's been in politics for decades, he's seen dozens of scandals play out. The idea he could conceal his involvement indefinitely once the parties began leaking was always deeply unlikely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    edited January 2022
    Quincel said:

    I agree with this, and am stunned he didn't realise this was his best play. It would still have attracted a lot of criticism for obvious reasons, but he should have known when the first party leaked that one of the dozens of people who saw him at the other parties would leak that. Given this, his best option was obviously to get out ahead of it and make as fulsome an apology as he could with the hope that he got some credit for being honest and taking responsibility. If that did work, then future revelations would have had much less impact because he would already have accepted he had fallen short.

    By denying it he just shreds his credibility when the truth inevitably comes out and makes the revelations hit so much harder. Totally counter-productive comms strategy.

    The parties were really bad, given 90% of the public stuck to very strict lockdown rules in early 2020 and will therefore be really stung to hear Downing St were ignoring them. But that's no reason to make the situation even worse for himself!

    And it's not like this wasn't predictable. He's been in politics for decades, he's seen dozens of scandals play out. The idea he could conceal his involvement indefinitely once the parties began leaking was always deeply unlikely.
    You’ve identified the flaw in always simply saying whatever the best thing is, to get off the hook you are on at the time.

    When facing a series of hooks, there is merit in considering them together.

    That would, however, have required a degree of forward thinking and anticipation for which he isn’t noted. And perhaps the really difficult bit would have been foregoing the optimal response for the immediately pressing hook?
This discussion has been closed.