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Johnson trails Sunak by a staggering18% as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2022 in General
imageJohnson trails Sunak by a staggering18% as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com

In polling carried out this week Redfield and Willson asked the question – which of Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson would “be the better PM at the moment”.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Austria's parliament approves bill making COVID-19 vaccination mandatory from February 1
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    Second like Celtic Football Club.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    What a difference a day makes, I was quite disheartened by the Big Dog Pulls It Off narrative which looked like developing this morning. In fact he is in *much* deeper trouble than I thought.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    IshmaelZ said:

    What a difference a day makes, I was quite disheartened by the Big Dog Pulls It Off narrative which looked like developing this morning. In fact he is in *much* deeper trouble than I thought.

    Nah it will make no difference
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    “Sir” (ahem) Tony Blair doing his very best to keep the Oaf in place. Outstanding performance by the old master.

    Starmer is ok, but when you listen to the ultimate snake-oil salesman you realise you’re in the presence of a master.

    Can’t see daft Charlie or baldie Wullie ever giving the Oaf a knighthood.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Is the Oaf eating a stale dogturd in OGH’s photie?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone thinks that selling a friendly country out to be annexed by an expansionist dictatorship is in itself cost free, I have a book on twentieth century history you could borrow.

    As opposed to starting World War 3 with Russia over a country not even in NATO with far right elements in it stirring up trouble?

    We have obligations to defend NATO members in Europe from Russia, not beyond
    It's in our own interests to constrain Russia's aggressive expansion. Dictatorships are really bad for business and they tend to create waves of refugees that could further destabilise our region.

    Plus, there's the minor point that it's the Right Thing To Do. But I don't think that's an argument that's likely to connect with you, so feel free to focus just on paragraph 1.
    Not if it means WW3.

    Ukraine is an ex part of the USSR and Putin's Russia sees them as Nationalist separatists.

    Yes ideally Russia would leave it be but Ukraine is not a NATO member so therefore we are not going to start WW3 to defend it
    Some problems:
    1. It wouldn't be us "starting" it, it would be the country invading its sovereign neighbour. Ukraine is a sovereign state, recognised by all the countries in the world including by Russia by treaty and by habit.
    2. Becoming involved in the conflict that the Nazis started in the 1930s was the right choice despite it being a "world war". A war isn't a good thing to seek out, but pretending that a war isn't already happening when it is, that's worse.
    3. In terms of deciding who runs a state... if there's a competition between the sovereign will of the people and a semi-mythical history of the founding of Rus deep in mediaeval times... I choose the sovereign will of the people. Any democrat would. Ukraine is not Russia for many reasons, not least because the people of Ukraine do not want to be part of Russia.
    4. "Ideally they would leave it be" butters no parsnips. If you don't understand that bullies need to be deterred, then you probably understand nothing.
    5. The USSR is thankfully long dead. Even if there was an unbroken ideological continuity between then and now, why would you wish that on the Ukrainian people? Wouldn't you rather people progress past discredited systems of government?
    6. I don't know whether you're playing devil's advocate just because you don't like me (in which case, fine, I don't mind), or whether you really believe that Russia somehow has a greater claim on Ukraine than Ukrainians do. If it's the latter, I will retract what I said a few weeks ago when someone accused you of being a fascist. I don't like to level that accusation lightly, but you need to understand a little more about the fascism (yes, real actual literal fascism) that is now at the heart of the Russian state. Go look into it, and climb down from where you're currently playing. This is not a hill you really want to die on.
    1. So what, we are not starting WW3 with a major power like Russia unless it invades a NATO power.
    2. We did not go to war with the Nazis when they annexed Austria and occupied Czechoslovakia and the Sudetenland, only when they invaded Poland.
    3. The argument for Ukraine also applies to Taiwan. We will not go to war over Taiwan with China either, only over Japan or South Korea.

    As for Fascism
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraines-far-right-warriors-set-for-war-with-russia-f335tvl8v
    1. No, "we" are not starting anything. But we should be ready to fend off an assault on democracy.
    2. No, we appeased for too long. The only thing that worked in the end was guns and bombs. Sometimes, that's how it has to be. Pieces of paper don't stop dictators.
    3. Whataboutery.

    As for fascism. It's deeply unwise for Ukraine to marshal paramilitaries in its own defence when it has friendly democracies who could help defend it. Perhaps that's even more reason for us to put our shoulder to the wheel.
    But at least Ukraine is a democracy and the fascists are on the fringe, rather than in the corridors of power.

    ^ You see how it's done? Acknowledge the problem and propose a solution that marginalises the bad guys. It's not hard when you've got a guiding principle. That's something for you to work on at some point.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited January 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    What a difference a day makes, I was quite disheartened by the Big Dog Pulls It Off narrative which looked like developing this morning. In fact he is in *much* deeper trouble than I thought.

    Nah it will make no difference
    Oh it most certainly will. There is effluent flying everywhere around No. 10 at the moment.

    It's only a matter of time before the Liar-in-Chief goes. But with each passing day the wounds cut deeper into the Conservative Party.

    It's a good time to be left-of-centre like me :smiley: Although if you go too far left, people are apparently fuming. Haha.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    tlg86 said:
    She doesn't appear to be very bright......another bloody graduate of that second rate institution in Oxford.

    She reminds me a bit of Katie Hopkins situation where just apologising and not repeating the same claims would have been the end of it, instead keep sticking their foot in it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    “Sir” (ahem) Tony Blair doing his very best to keep the Oaf in place. Outstanding performance by the old master.

    Starmer is ok, but when you listen to the ultimate snake-oil salesman you realise you’re in the presence of a master.

    Can’t see daft Charlie or baldie Wullie ever giving the Oaf a knighthood.

    I'm a Tory. I really don't like this wild portrayal of Blair as some sort of evil.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    He needs to be whipping Gray: report by Monday noon (interim report if you insist) or {reasonable and proper threats which in no way contravene the crminal law, but wave good bye to a job or a peerage under my administration} because if he has any balls at all he is going to move instantly the report comes out because it is dead right/a transparent whitewash.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Omnium said:

    “Sir” (ahem) Tony Blair doing his very best to keep the Oaf in place. Outstanding performance by the old master.

    Starmer is ok, but when you listen to the ultimate snake-oil salesman you realise you’re in the presence of a master.

    Can’t see daft Charlie or baldie Wullie ever giving the Oaf a knighthood.

    I'm a Tory. I really don't like this wild portrayal of Blair as some sort of evil.
    Con defends pseudo-Con.

    The United Kingdom of Whatever.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    If he trades now. Over to you Mike…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Is the Oaf eating a stale dogturd in OGH’s photie?

    Ice covered pine cone and string. Only OGH cropped out the string to make Boris look saner today. Maybe the whips have had a word.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
  • Talking of people putting their foot in it...

    People in glass houses! Green campaigner lectures GMB viewers on damage that conservatories are doing to the planet - while sitting in her conservatory

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10421987/Green-campaigner-lectures-GMB-viewers-damage-conservatories-sitting-hers.html
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    Omnium said:

    “Sir” (ahem) Tony Blair doing his very best to keep the Oaf in place. Outstanding performance by the old master.

    Starmer is ok, but when you listen to the ultimate snake-oil salesman you realise you’re in the presence of a master.

    Can’t see daft Charlie or baldie Wullie ever giving the Oaf a knighthood.

    I'm a Tory. I really don't like this wild portrayal of Blair as some sort of evil.
    Con defends pseudo-Con.

    The United Kingdom of Whatever.
    I'm sure you must be right.

    Really though it isn't so hard to actually think.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Talking of people putting their foot in it...

    People in glass houses! Green campaigner lectures GMB viewers on damage that conservatories are doing to the planet - while sitting in her conservatory

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10421987/Green-campaigner-lectures-GMB-viewers-damage-conservatories-sitting-hers.html

    People in glass houses...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    If he trades now. Over to you Mike…
    You can lay Sunak at 2.72 tonight. If you have backed at 251 there's cigars either way in that.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    What a difference a day makes, I was quite disheartened by the Big Dog Pulls It Off narrative which looked like developing this morning. In fact he is in *much* deeper trouble than I thought.

    *BREAKING

    Deleted. [funny but cannot guarantee animals we’re not harmed]
  • Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    Delighted to see subsamples becoming so fashionable.

    I’ve never been a trendsetter before.

    Only took eighteen years.
    It's not a subsample, it's the breakdown of the MRP.

    Guess what, the sample size is 9,602. This MRP strategy allowed them predict the winners of 95% of the seats at GE2019.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
    Um, you can lay back elsewhere than where you placed the bet

    ETA but make sure the market rules are back to back
  • Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone thinks that selling a friendly country out to be annexed by an expansionist dictatorship is in itself cost free, I have a book on twentieth century history you could borrow.

    As opposed to starting World War 3 with Russia over a country not even in NATO with far right elements in it stirring up trouble?

    We have obligations to defend NATO members in Europe from Russia, not beyond
    It's in our own interests to constrain Russia's aggressive expansion. Dictatorships are really bad for business and they tend to create waves of refugees that could further destabilise our region.

    Plus, there's the minor point that it's the Right Thing To Do. But I don't think that's an argument that's likely to connect with you, so feel free to focus just on paragraph 1.
    Not if it means WW3.

    Ukraine is an ex part of the USSR and Putin's Russia sees them as Nationalist separatists.
    Yes ideally Russia would leave it be but Ukraine is not a NATO member so therefore we are not going to start WW3 to defend it
    For FUDHY the Russia-Ukraine conflict is just a proxy to bash the jocks.

    Ditto Castile-Catalonia.

    Ditto Loyalist America-Quebec.

    Ditto Chinese Empire-Taiwan.

    etc etc etc

    Might is Right as far as “real” Tories are concerned.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
    Um, you can lay back elsewhere than where you placed the bet
    I don't understand that. If he had a fixed price 250/1 on, say, ladbrokes sportsbook how do you go about laying it?

    I get it obviously with exchange betting and spread betting but not with a fixed price sportsbook bet. Totally and genuinely confused.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    Delighted to see subsamples becoming so fashionable.

    I’ve never been a trendsetter before.

    Only took eighteen years.
    It's not a subsample, it's the breakdown of the MRP.

    Guess what, the sample size is 9,602. This MRP strategy allowed them predict the winners of 95% of the seats at GE2019.
    Maybe year nineteen…
  • Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    Delighted to see subsamples becoming so fashionable.

    I’ve never been a trendsetter before.

    Only took eighteen years.
    It's not a subsample, it's the breakdown of the MRP.

    Guess what, the sample size is 9,602. This MRP strategy allowed them predict the winners of 95% of the seats at GE2019.
    Maybe year nineteen…
    ICYMI

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/02/28/polling-klaxon-why-you-shouldnt-read-too-much-into-a-small-subsample-see-this-scottish-subsample-as-the-perfect-example/
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    Re. the Ukraine I'm afraid that, tragic though an invasion would be and though BoJo (if he's still in office) may try otherwise, it's not going to cause more than mild irritation and tut-tutting to most Brits. Unless Putin presses the nuclear button if they start losing of course.

    There's no oil involved. It's bad but any UK leader who begins committing too much to the defence of Ukraine is absolutely desperate. Oh wait ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    It’s not a bet that can fall foul of an interim PM is it Mike?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    edited January 2022

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Agreed. But if Johnson clings on to 2024 then I think Sunak becomes the new William Hague. Leader of a party out of power for a long time.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    Delighted to see subsamples becoming so fashionable.

    I’ve never been a trendsetter before.

    Only took eighteen years.
    It's not a subsample, it's the breakdown of the MRP.

    Guess what, the sample size is 9,602. This MRP strategy allowed them predict the winners of 95% of the seats at GE2019.
    Maybe year nineteen…
    Also this data is from December - I suspect any polling done now would be even worse for the Tories than these figures.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022
    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
    Um, you can lay back elsewhere than where you placed the bet
    I don't understand that. If he had a fixed price 250/1 on, say, ladbrokes sportsbook how do you go about laying it?

    I get it obviously with exchange betting and spread betting but not with a fixed price sportsbook bet. Totally and genuinely confused.
    Sunak wins, he wins 20 x 250 = 5,000

    Lay Sunak at 2.8 which say is 2/1 for simplicity, accepting a bet of 1,000

    Sunak wins you win 3,000
    Sunak loses you win 1,000 or rather 980

    ETA if you can find the liquidity for the lay
  • Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Down, boy. That's enough!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097

    From another PB.

    "Stanley Johnson was in my local in Queens Park on Monday night, drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps. I mentioned to someone that it must be tense in the Johnson family at the moment, and was reminded of an incident here last summer when someone approached Stanley in the same pub to tell him that his son was a c*nt. To which Johnson Senior wearily replied, 'Yes, I know.'"

    Brilliant :smiley:

    I don't think Jo Johnson thinks a lot of his brother either.
  • Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,097
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
    Um, you can lay back elsewhere than where you placed the bet
    I don't understand that. If he had a fixed price 250/1 on, say, ladbrokes sportsbook how do you go about laying it?

    I get it obviously with exchange betting and spread betting but not with a fixed price sportsbook bet. Totally and genuinely confused.
    Sunak wins, he wins 20 x 250 = 5,000

    Lay Sunak at 2.8 which say is 2/1 for simplicity, accepting a bet of 1,000

    Sunak wins you win 3,000
    Sunak loses you win 1,000 or rather 980
    So basically you place a bet against yourself to cover both eventualities. Isn't that arbing? I thought that wasn't supposed to be kosher?
  • Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Down, boy. That's enough!
    Rishi Sunak to keep Scotland in the Union with his superlative performance in Indyref2?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Just popping in first time after work. Did much happen today?
  • Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    If anyone thinks that selling a friendly country out to be annexed by an expansionist dictatorship is in itself cost free, I have a book on twentieth century history you could borrow.

    As opposed to starting World War 3 with Russia over a country not even in NATO with far right elements in it stirring up trouble?

    We have obligations to defend NATO members in Europe from Russia, not beyond
    It's in our own interests to constrain Russia's aggressive expansion. Dictatorships are really bad for business and they tend to create waves of refugees that could further destabilise our region.

    Plus, there's the minor point that it's the Right Thing To Do. But I don't think that's an argument that's likely to connect with you, so feel free to focus just on paragraph 1.
    Not if it means WW3.

    Ukraine is an ex part of the USSR and Putin's Russia sees them as Nationalist separatists.
    Yes ideally Russia would leave it be but Ukraine is not a NATO member so therefore we are not going to start WW3 to defend it
    For FUDHY the Russia-Ukraine conflict is just a proxy to bash the jocks.

    Ditto Castile-Catalonia.

    Ditto Loyalist America-Quebec.

    Ditto Chinese Empire-Taiwan.

    etc etc etc

    Might is Right as far as “real” Tories are concerned.
    Yebbut real tories don't believe in EVEL or an English Parliament.Or in tax increases for hardworking people, the weakening of Britain's defences, etc. We'd get no real Tories at that rate. Shall we permit an impurity level of, say, 50%?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,149

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    That one in the photo must be cheapo plated copper - the organ has gone all green.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    Oh
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    250/1

    Tee hee.
    Well I really hope Mike wins just because it's a totally fantastic bet and he has come very close.

    But for Labour's sake I really hope Johnson continues to cling on. He's a toxic liability now and the best bit from my point of view is that the tory party is beginning to rip itself apart.
    Very close wins no cigars.

    Regarding Con Party: OMGOMGOMG. I think all my Christmases came at once.
    It does actually. If OGH has got the hang of this betting lark at all, he must be making money on the bet irrespective.
    It was a sportsbook bet I think so, no, he won't.

    (Well unless they offer a cashout)
    Um, you can lay back elsewhere than where you placed the bet
    I don't understand that. If he had a fixed price 250/1 on, say, ladbrokes sportsbook how do you go about laying it?

    I get it obviously with exchange betting and spread betting but not with a fixed price sportsbook bet. Totally and genuinely confused.
    Sunak wins, he wins 20 x 250 = 5,000

    Lay Sunak at 2.8 which say is 2/1 for simplicity, accepting a bet of 1,000

    Sunak wins you win 3,000
    Sunak loses you win 1,000 or rather 980
    So basically you place a bet against yourself to cover both eventualities. Isn't that arbing? I thought that wasn't supposed to be kosher?
    Arbitrage is exploiting different prices at the same time. This is exploiting different prices at different times, so no. And you don't get arbs of x100 magnitude
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Heathener said:

    Labour really want to keep Johnson in place.

    And as I've mentioned, the longer this goes on the less chance Sunak has of becoming PM.

    They’re surely hoping to fight the next election against loopy Liz?
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    LAB HOLD Bootle.
    I plugged the figures into flavible and get the following on current boundaries:

    Lab 57 (+16)
    CON 15 (-17)
    LD 2 (+1)
    Spkr 1 (-)

    Interestingly William Wragg is projected to narrowly hold Hazel Grove on a uniform swing but Graham Brady loses his seat by 4% to Labour.
    Hazel Grove was LD from 1997 to 2015 and was Remain so Wragg would also almost certainly lose given tactical voting. What a shame!
    Hazel Grove actually voted 52% leave unlike 57% remain Cheadle so I think it'll be a fair bit trickier for the Lib Dems to gain than Cheadle as it has trended strongly towards the Tories (and is more semi rural in parts) although the Lib Dems will probably have the resources to bombard both seats especially given their candidate is standing down as a councillor. Boundary changes are however bad for the Tories in Hazel Grove.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    It’s also a dock?

    So what’s a Prince Andrew piercing then, to have a difference between the two, so there’s a working joke?

    Is a Prince Andrew piercing like when Madonna had her brain pierced, so she could have a stud in her head all night long?
  • Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Old-school American version:

    Q. What's the diff between Prince Albert and Prince Andrew"

    A. Folks want Prince Albert OUT of the can, but they want Prince Andrew IN the can.


    For puzzled Brits and American whippersnappers, see this from Wiki:

    "Prince Albert in a can"
    The brand is the basis of a practical joke, usually made in the form of a prank call. The prankster typically calls a store and asks if they have "Prince Albert in a can". When the unsuspecting clerk responds, "yes", (because the tobacco is typically packaged in a can, though other forms of packaging also existed), the caller follows up with, "well, you'd better let him out!" or similar.[6][7]
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Only up to a point. I can't imagine Rishi Sunak throwing items of stationery at his staff when he gets cross, for example.

    More broadly, if the Tories put him into bat and inflationary pressure turns out to be a spike rather than a trend, I think he has a reasonable chance of winning the next election.

    We've been slogging through the misery of Covid seemingly for so long that it's very easy to forget that there may well be more time left to go between now and the next election than has elapsed between the last election and now - a political age, in which all manner of things could happen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    👉 New: Senior Tory MPs tell me Johnson will soon face a no confidence vote. MPs and ministers are just waiting for Gray to report.

    Crucially Johnson has failed to assure MPs there are no more revelations to come.

    The bid to oust him has only just begun.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/01/the-plot-to-oust-boris-johnson-has-not-been-foiled-it-has-only-just-begun
  • tlg86 said:
    She doesn't appear to be very bright......another bloody graduate of that second rate institution in Oxford.

    She reminds me a bit of Katie Hopkins situation where just apologising and not repeating the same claims would have been the end of it, instead keep sticking their foot in it.
    She seems to wishcast.

    I remember she deleted a tweet about a Tory donor who had to show source of funds opening up a new bank account like it was a smoking gun.

    I mean that's a standard procedure for every bank in the UK when someone opens an account and transfers a large amount in, and I mean anything about £20,000 and above can get flagged up.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    It’s also a dock?

    So what’s a Prince Andrew piercing then, to have a difference between the two, so there’s a working joke?

    Is a Prince Andrew piercing like when Madonna had her brain pierced, so she could have a stud in her head all night long?
    One imagines that the gist of the joke is that one's a knob with a ring in it and the other's just a knob.

    And don't even ask about docking.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869
    edited January 2022

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    Oh
    Bet you wish you hadn’t asked!
  • Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    Oh
    Bet you wish you hadn’t asked!
    The things I've had to explain to PBers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    👉 New: Senior Tory MPs tell me Johnson will soon face a no confidence vote. MPs and ministers are just waiting for Gray to report.

    Crucially Johnson has failed to assure MPs there are no more revelations to come.

    The bid to oust him has only just begun.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/01/the-plot-to-oust-boris-johnson-has-not-been-foiled-it-has-only-just-begun

    Once the VONC is called, surely events will be on a roll. The Tories can all see how Johnson is dragging them all down with him, and if they don’t cut out the cancer now, they’ll be looking at years of Labour (led?) government to come.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    pigeon said:

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Jester please explain
    What is a Prince Albert piercing?

    A Prince Albert is a piercing of the penis, in which a metal ring is pierced through the skin at the tip of the penis.

    The ring begins almost straight to pierce through the penis, and is then bent with pliers to create a rounded ring shape.


    https://metro.co.uk/2018/04/27/prince-albert-piercing-7502229/
    It’s also a dock?

    So what’s a Prince Andrew piercing then, to have a difference between the two, so there’s a working joke?

    Is a Prince Andrew piercing like when Madonna had her brain pierced, so she could have a stud in her head all night long?
    One imagines that the gist of the joke is that one's a knob with a ring in it and the other's just a knob.

    And don't even ask about docking.
    Oh. 🙄
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Heathener said:

    From another PB.

    "Stanley Johnson was in my local in Queens Park on Monday night, drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps. I mentioned to someone that it must be tense in the Johnson family at the moment, and was reminded of an incident here last summer when someone approached Stanley in the same pub to tell him that his son was a c*nt. To which Johnson Senior wearily replied, 'Yes, I know.'"

    Brilliant :smiley:

    I don't think Jo Johnson thinks a lot of his brother either.
    Surprised the answer was not "Yes, I know. But which one are you talking about?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2022
    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support
  • JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022
    Perhaps she wear’s the momento mori to remind her: all men are shallow 😝

    image
  • If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    If your Dads a billionaire - Yes
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    👉 New: Senior Tory MPs tell me Johnson will soon face a no confidence vote. MPs and ministers are just waiting for Gray to report.

    Crucially Johnson has failed to assure MPs there are no more revelations to come.

    The bid to oust him has only just begun.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/01/the-plot-to-oust-boris-johnson-has-not-been-foiled-it-has-only-just-begun

    belle-mère sur pornhub

    what a shame
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Heathener said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Agreed. But if Johnson clings on to 2024 then I think Sunak becomes the new William Hague. Leader of a party out of power for a long time.
    More likely the new David Miliband, losing the leadership to Truss or Patel who then becomes the Hague or Ed Miliband opposition leader
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited January 2022

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Clocks by Coldplay is one or the few songs I can play on guitar.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040

    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    PB needs a tougher whipping operation, order is breaking down.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    If you are quoting all of the other PB I'll get this bit in first

    >> Horsing around <<
    A fitting honour for Andrew

    The theories that the Queen is forever trying to silently communicate her disapproval of Boris Johnson with her choice of brooch, or serving some masterful clapback to the Sussexes by drinking a particular blend of tea, don't cut much ice with us – but we have to admit we did enjoy this recent royal update.

    The same week that the Queen stripped Andrew of all his military titles, affiliations and the HRH honorific, the Daily Mail reported that she'd just registered a new racehorse... and called it "Interview".
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    JBriskin3 said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Clocks by Coldplay is one or the few songs I can play on guitar.
    Only the intro, mind.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited January 2022

    Q: What's the difference between a Prince Albert and a Prince Andrew?

    A: The piercing

    Old-school American version:

    Q. What's the diff between Prince Albert and Prince Andrew"

    A. Folks want Prince Albert OUT of the can, but they want Prince Andrew IN the can.


    For puzzled Brits and American whippersnappers, see this from Wiki:

    "Prince Albert in a can"
    The brand is the basis of a practical joke, usually made in the form of a prank call. The prankster typically calls a store and asks if they have "Prince Albert in a can". When the unsuspecting clerk responds, "yes", (because the tobacco is typically packaged in a can, though other forms of packaging also existed), the caller follows up with, "well, you'd better let him out!" or similar.[6][7]
    My wife was at Amherst in Prince Albert's year. She told me he did a skit in the student show where he burst out of a can ...

    This year is their 40th graduation anniversary* meet up. In think he's invited them to hold it chez-lui.

    * delayed one year due to COVID.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,088
    HYUFD said:

    The key point though is 2019 Tory voters still prefer Johnson over Sunak.

    The fact Sunak leads Starmer by just 1% as preferred PM, also means even Sunak would fail to win another Conservative majority at the next general election. All Sunak could hope to do would be to win most seats in a hung parliament but even then Starmer would likely become PM with SNP and LD support

    If I may be so bold, you perhaps accord a little too much importance to opinion polls - especially opinion polls conducted now as accurate predictors of the state of play in 2024.

    The notion that the Conservative position might improve under a new leader, or that Labour might encounter some fresh bumps in the road between then and now, isn't even considered.

    Even if some polling conducted now represents anything like an accurate reflection of current public opinion, this does not, of course, imply that public opinion will remain pickled in aspic for over two years.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    LAB HOLD Bootle.
    I plugged the figures into flavible and get the following on current boundaries:

    Lab 57 (+16)
    CON 15 (-17)
    LD 2 (+1)
    Spkr 1 (-)

    Interestingly William Wragg is projected to narrowly hold Hazel Grove on a uniform swing but Graham Brady loses his seat by 4% to Labour.
    Hazel Grove was LD from 1997 to 2015 and was Remain so Wragg would also almost certainly lose given tactical voting. What a shame!
    Hazel Grove actually voted 52% leave unlike 57% remain Cheadle so I think it'll be a fair bit trickier for the Lib Dems to gain than Cheadle as it has trended strongly towards the Tories (and is more semi rural in parts) although the Lib Dems will probably have the resources to bombard both seats especially given their candidate is standing down as a councillor. Boundary changes are however bad for the Tories in Hazel Grove.
    The most startling thing about the EC projection on poll someone posted last night (I know, it's not real) was just how much of Cheshire as currently constituted fell red - Tatton, Congleton, Macclesfield, Eddisbury and, of course, the townier seats. Can't think there was much of the county left blue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040
    "[Johnson] may decide to walk away from No 10 immediately, presumably leaving Dominic Raab as temporary prime minister and boosting the justice secretary’s otherwise slim chances."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/19/boris-johnson-tory-mps-party-conservatives-populists


    As I have posted before, I don't think the Palace would accept this, if Raab intends to be a candidate in leadership.

    They will seek a caretaker who is not and clearly not a candidate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    From another PB.

    "Stanley Johnson was in my local in Queens Park on Monday night, drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps. I mentioned to someone that it must be tense in the Johnson family at the moment, and was reminded of an incident here last summer when someone approached Stanley in the same pub to tell him that his son was a c*nt. To which Johnson Senior wearily replied, 'Yes, I know.'"

    "drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps"

    Let's add lots of extraneous detail so my made up story sounds more plausible.

    (Not that you made it up, TSE.)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,461
    edited January 2022
    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it - except for the sycophants sent out to defend the PM, of course.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Closing walls and ticking clocks seems about right
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Rishi is a Winchester and Oxford educated, ex Goldman Sachs banker and son in law of a billionaire. He would be arguably the most elitist PM we have had since WW2.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that of course
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Never liked this song for some reason.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040
    Gosh, that Martin Kettle article makes for bleak reading.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2022
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads the Conservatives in the North West by 22 points - LAB 53% (+6), CON 30% (-8) LD 6% (-1) GRE 5% (+2) AP 6% (-) - Changes vs 2019 GE. https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1484193501109706758/photo/1

    LAB HOLD Bootle.
    I plugged the figures into flavible and get the following on current boundaries:

    Lab 57 (+16)
    CON 15 (-17)
    LD 2 (+1)
    Spkr 1 (-)

    Interestingly William Wragg is projected to narrowly hold Hazel Grove on a uniform swing but Graham Brady loses his seat by 4% to Labour.
    Hazel Grove was LD from 1997 to 2015 and was Remain so Wragg would also almost certainly lose given tactical voting. What a shame!
    Hazel Grove actually voted 52% leave unlike 57% remain Cheadle so I think it'll be a fair bit trickier for the Lib Dems to gain than Cheadle as it has trended strongly towards the Tories (and is more semi rural in parts) although the Lib Dems will probably have the resources to bombard both seats especially given their candidate is standing down as a councillor. Boundary changes are however bad for the Tories in Hazel Grove.
    The most startling thing about the EC projection on poll someone posted last night (I know, it's not real) was just how much of Cheshire as currently constituted fell red - Tatton, Congleton, Macclesfield, Eddisbury and, of course, the townier seats. Can't think there was much of the county left blue.
    Given it also projected Kensington and Cities of London and Westminster going red the only safe Tory seats left anywhere would be Leave seats with Tory voteshares of 60%+ in 2019.

    Seats rather like Epping Forest
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Brings to mind the UK version of House of Cards
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    So we once thought.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040
    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Rishi is a Winchester and Oxford educated, ex Goldman Sachs banker and son in law of a billionaire. He would be arguably the most elitist PM we have had since WW2.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that of course
    Erm, Home?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    IanB2 said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    So we once thought.
    Blair won 2005 post most of the sleeze.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JBriskin3 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Late to the party, but on whipping (in politics, of course). If Wragg is right, it stinks, but Whips have often used nefarious means to get their way; although threats to local funding seem beyond the pale.

    But my view is that this is part of a wider culture in the current government: not blackmail, but bullying. And the bullying starts at the top. I think Boris is a bully. Cummings is/was a bully. Patel is a known bully. There will be others. They bully civil servants, driving quite a few out of the job. They bully SPADs that they turn against. And, following their lead, the Whips bully MPs with a nod and a wink from No. 10 - most notably over Paterson, and now over the PM's future. I suspect this bullying is alienating quite a few MPs, and they're getting sick of it.

    So, my theory is that the bullying culture emanating from No. 10 is much more damaging to good governance than the (alleged) drinking culture.

    Blah Blah

    Blackmail has been part of the Whipping playbook for decades - nobody complained when it was, to pick a random example - Blair.
    Morality doesn't get sleazier than that.

    "Child abuse happened under Blair, always ha, always will, so what's your point?"
    Sleazyness don't get much worse than Blair.
    Well make your mind up, he was a "random example" 5 minutes ago. Which is it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    I don't have a lot of time for Rishi - he's the plutocracy H Clinton warned us of.

    Asking for a friend, can the children/grandchildren of immigrants to this country be considered plutocrats?
    Rishi is a Winchester and Oxford educated, ex Goldman Sachs banker and son in law of a billionaire. He would be arguably the most elitist PM we have had since WW2.

    Not that there is anything wrong with that of course
    Erm, Home?
    Not as rich as Sunak. Both had elite educations.

    If you are going old elite then Home given he was from an aristocratic family, new elite Sunak
This discussion has been closed.