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Johnson trails Sunak by a staggering18% as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Ratters said:

    Fundamentally, does Boris have any programme for government left now that Brexit has been 'done' and they've run out of money?

    Other than pointless (free) culture war gestures, he has nothing left.

    I thought the main government programme now is Saving Boris
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    ESA is part of Universal Credit.
    Not so.

    New-style ESA is a contribution-based benefit, not means tested and usually payable for only one year. Completely separate from UC (albeit a parallel UC claim will take any ESA in payment into account, and will be accordingly reduced).
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Ratters said:

    Fundamentally, does Boris have any programme for government left now that Brexit has been 'done' and they've run out of money?

    Other than pointless (free) culture war gestures, he has nothing left.

    I thought the main government programme now is Saving Boris
    He will always have Brexit. The project with no end in sight...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    .

    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Yes, I thought it was a bit strange too.

    I had a brief look at the decision letter - https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-east/aquind-interconnector/ - and the crux of the matter seems to be that an alternative route, connecting to a different substation on the English side, is thought to be less disruptive, and therefore preferable. Not sure what the detailed differences are between the two, but if there is a different route that is markedly better than the other then I can see the sense in refusing this application to encourage one for the other route.
    Yes, it’s reasonably likely that approving a particular development in a given area dooms another one, so ‘the more the better’ might not apply here.
    The massive local opposition, and the somewhat dodgy penumbra around the deal wouldn’t have helped.

    In the longer run, switcheable pan European connections, rather than just country to country, are of far greater importance to reliable energy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    I had Black Dog for a while.
    Not so good in the Countryside


    Sheep running away i bet

    I hear Nigel Farage is a huge Procol Harum fan
  • ydoethur said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Yes, I thought it was a bit strange too.

    I had a brief look at the decision letter - https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/projects/south-east/aquind-interconnector/ - and the crux of the matter seems to be that an alternative route, connecting to a different substation on the English side, is thought to be less disruptive, and therefore preferable. Not sure what the detailed differences are between the two, but if there is a different route that is markedly better than the other then I can see the sense in refusing this application to encourage one for the other route.
    The Russian connection might also be an issue in the current environment.
    If the connections for a cable between Britain and France are in Russia, they've advanced a lot further and faster than I thought.
    I believe the people behind the project are Russians. In the current environment that might raise flags.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    image

    😕.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive: Nadhim Zahawi has intervened to stop overcautious local health bosses reinstating masks in classrooms

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17385033/plan-to-stop-kids-being-back-into-masks?utm_source=sharebar_app&utm_medium=sharebar_app&utm_campaign=sharebar_app_article

    It’s an interesting story, although in the Sun so one should treat with caution.

    I mentioned earlier that the headmaster of my son’s school wrote to all parents today saying the masks would be retained due to local authority guidance. I heard from other PBers who had the opposite experience - the masks had been dropped immediately at their children’s schools. It seems a bit crackers that it varies so widely.

    In any case, my son came home tonight (unaware of the email to parents) and revealed he’d been told off because when his teacher asked him to put his mask on, he’d said: “I saw on the news this morning that we don’t need them now, Miss.”

    Nothing major at all but a straw in the wind. Presumably Zahawi wants to avoid further such friction.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited January 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    Oh God, I've got that guitar riff bouncing around my head now. It's gonna be there for days. Thanks @Foxy!
    The medical students and junior doctors are too young to get the joke, but the intro is good as a ring tone as it starts slowly and builds, rather than starts full on.
    Yes, it's a great intro, and a good joke.

    I used to have Hanging On The Telephone, which has an element of surprise as a ringtone.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Indeed. He’s going nowhere - would have to be dragged out most probably,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    I had Black Dog for a while.
    Not so good in the Countryside


    Sheep running away i bet

    I hear Nigel Farage is a huge Procol Harum fan
    Could I suggest this for Johnson:

    https://youtu.be/OgtQj8O92eI
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    For sake of accuracy, I think it has been established that Boris was nowhere near those parties, he was away at Chequers. I actually think those ones took him by surprise that his staff had going wild at such a moment.

    The fact he fostered an culture of people having drinks during times of restrictions and was unaware when that a garden party was a garden party, despite sitting in it for half an hour, that is another matter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    I am sure you are right about Johnson not giving a f**k... but it's not really what he thinks that's important is it? It's what Tory MPs think that counts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    For sake of accuracy, Boris was nowhere near those parties, he was away at Chequers. I actually think those ones took him by surprise that his staff had going wild at such a moment.
    Why let facts get in the way of a good rant?
  • vinovino Posts: 169

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    Oh God, I've got that guitar riff bouncing around my head now. It's gonna be there for days. Thanks @Foxy!
    Sounds like a Moody Blues song
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    For sake of accuracy, Boris was nowhere near those parties, he was away at Chequers. I actually think those ones took him by surprise that his staff had going wild at such a moment.
    Why let facts get in the way of a good rant?
    Indeed!
  • vinovino Posts: 169
    Days of Future Passed?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited January 2022
    I’m just catching up on the blackmail stuff. I’ve been snowed under all week so missed that the guy at the heart of the claim is Billy Wragg, vice chairman of the 22. That could change things, I might have to admit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    vino said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    Oh God, I've got that guitar riff bouncing around my head now. It's gonna be there for days. Thanks @Foxy!
    Sounds like a Moody Blues song
    I am a BOC fan. Indeed they are supposed to be backing Deep Purple in October in Brum. I have tickets, if it ever happens.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    I had Black Dog for a while.
    Not so good in the Countryside


    Sheep running away i bet

    I hear Nigel Farage is a huge Procol Harum fan
    Could I suggest this for Johnson:

    https://youtu.be/OgtQj8O92eI
    Actually, this might be a better choice for the PM, from the second best Eighties teen movie "Earth Girls are Easy"

    https://youtu.be/4Ol4oWChjzk
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?
  • Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are considering publishing a secretly recorded conversation with the chief whip and text messages after they accused the government of blackmail and intimidation..

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-parties-hurt-our-democracy-sajid-javid-admits-qvmg22pfz
  • image

    😕.

    I must have missed it but what is the significance of Norman ?
  • Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Lying? Incompetence?
  • vinovino Posts: 169
    Foxy said:

    vino said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    If this doesn't confirm Prince Andrew is a wrong 'un then I don't know what will?

    As recently as 2015, Prince Andrew's ringtone was Clocks by Coldplay.

    Only way it could have been worse is if it was a Radiohead track?

    Don't know. Creep would seem quite apposite.
    Indeed.

    My daughter objects to my ringtone - Unforgiven by Apocalyptica.
    Mine is that classic Blue Oyster Cult: Don't Fear the Reaper.
    Oh God, I've got that guitar riff bouncing around my head now. It's gonna be there for days. Thanks @Foxy!
    Sounds like a Moody Blues song
    I am a BOC fan. Indeed they are supposed to be backing Deep Purple in October in Brum. I have tickets, if it ever happens.
    Sorry Foxy - too old to even know who/what BOC are - I googled that song and thought Moody Blue even though I wasn't a fan of theirs apart from their first hit
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    ESA is part of Universal Credit.
    Not so.

    New-style ESA is a contribution-based benefit, not means tested and usually payable for only one year. Completely separate from UC (albeit a parallel UC claim will take any ESA in payment into account, and will be accordingly reduced).
    Yep. Well spotted.
  • Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are considering publishing a secretly recorded conversation with the chief whip and text messages after they accused the government of blackmail and intimidation..

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-parties-hurt-our-democracy-sajid-javid-admits-qvmg22pfz

    "I see. No evidence." :lol:
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
    I can't see the comparison between Brown and Eden. Brown was a victim of Macmillan's events, dear boy, events in the shape of the global financial crisis.

    Eden was master of his own demise via Suez and, to a lesser extent, the Buster Crabb affair.
    Chuchill thought Eden just was NOT up to the job of replacing him. And he was right.

    Ditto Blair with Brown.
    But the fact that they didn't idenitfy and develop a decent successor is a huge indictment of them, as just much as on those who followed them.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
     

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    Hmm .. Perhaps
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    edited January 2022

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Lying? Incompetence?
    Which PM are you talking about?
  • Billy Wragg doesn’t want to change the world, he’s not looking for a new England, he’s just looking for another PM.

    A16 Highway to the Irish Sea :lol:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I misunderstood his apology to the Queen and thought it was HIS party rather than a party, but he shows no remorse that looks genuine and in his pieces to camera he does not convince.

    There have been plenty of parties and a total lack of leadership from the top. If a PM read the Riot Act after the first of these and disciplined staff, the whole thing would have stopped.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups? lying to the HoC, blackmailing his MPs, trying to save sleaze-ridden MPs, failing to focus on the detail of the PM job...

    Take your pick.
  • Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Lying? Incompetence?
    Which PM are you talking about?
    Guess.
  • Tory MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson are considering publishing a secretly recorded conversation with the chief whip and text messages after they accused the government of blackmail and intimidation..

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-parties-hurt-our-democracy-sajid-javid-admits-qvmg22pfz

    "I see. No evidence." :lol:
    Difficult to see evidence if it's a sound recording, of course.

    The behaviour of the government, especially the flitting between cunning and stupidity, coupled with the quibbling of exactly what you mean by words like "evidence", reminds me of teenage boys caught with a copy of Big and Bouncy under their mattress.

    As for the threat to release a secretly-recorded tape, it sounds a bit blackmaily to me... maybe said MPs are trying out for roles in the Whips Office.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I misunderstood his apology to the Queen and thought it was HIS party rather than a party, but he shows no remorse that looks genuine and in his pieces to camera he does not convince.

    There have been plenty of parties and a total lack of leadership from the top. If a PM read the Riot Act after the first of these and disciplined staff, the whole thing would have stopped.
    I do not disagree, but the two parties the night before Philip's funeral were organised by civil servants while Boris was away at Chequers and I do believe he was genuinely shocked

    It is important to know the context of these parties and I am sure Sue Gray's report will address just who was responsible for those two parties, both on the same night
  • When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?

    Officially Monday/Tuesday next week, but she's trying to hit a moving target so who knows.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    Reading all the reports of businesses "calling staff back to desks", not a single one is suggesting 100% office based work as the way forward. All are talking hybrid with 50% office work and 50% home work and that's the way of the future or the "new normal" as it is termed.

    Looking at today's release of passenger transport numbers, national rail passenger numbers are just over half pre-Covid and London Underground at just under half pre-Covid. We are told there has been a "rush" back today but the truth is much more prosaic - a small increase but still a long way off pre-Covid days.

    I was amused to note the roads round here were much quieter today than they were yesterday.

    I suspect as much as anything that was due to the heavy ice most people had to clear, but it was still ironic,
    Yes, we'll be restarting in April, with a 2/3 day hybrid model for the forseeable future. Staff who want to be 100% at home have been told that won't be possible but the general pattern will be to ease people back gradually. I can't see us ever going back to 5 days in the office - it'd feel as antiquated as Ceefax.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Billy Wragg doesn’t want to change the world, he’s not looking for a new England, he’s just looking for another PM.

    Did his uncle once play for Red Star Belgrade?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    ESA is part of Universal Credit.
    Not so.

    New-style ESA is a contribution-based benefit, not means tested and usually payable for only one year. Completely separate from UC (albeit a parallel UC claim will take any ESA in payment into account, and will be accordingly reduced).
    And there are still people on legacy benefits.
  • Fishing said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
    I can't see the comparison between Brown and Eden. Brown was a victim of Macmillan's events, dear boy, events in the shape of the global financial crisis.

    Eden was master of his own demise via Suez and, to a lesser extent, the Buster Crabb affair.
    Chuchill thought Eden just was NOT up to the job of replacing him. And he was right.

    Ditto Blair with Brown.
    But the fact that they didn't idenitfy and develop a decent successor is a huge indictment of them, as just much as on those who followed them.
    Think you may be . . . err . . . fishing on this one. Esp. the "huge"; certainly history as written so far does NOT agree this is a major criticism of WSC.

    Can you cite examples of elected politicos who actually achieved such identification and / or development?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Billy Wragg doesn’t want to change the world, he’s not looking for a new England, he’s just looking for another PM.

    A16 Highway to the Irish Sea :lol:
    I have no doubt got the wrong end of the stick here but doesn't the A16 run between Peterborough and Grimsby?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Actually, I think you meant:

    Boris - piss-ups in large groups whilst there was a lockdown making such gathering illegal and 1000s were fined for similar behaviour and hounded by the police. And then lying about it. Repeatedly. Including to Parliament.

  • Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Its not the pissups so much as all the lies / attempted cover up and also it is increasingly clear it wasn't a single incident, it is culture of just ignoring the rules over the course of at least a year.
    Or 'taking the piss', to put it briefly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I think he's going to make it BigG. However he does need to sack one hell of a lot of civil servants and severely discipline the party whips.

    Maybe with what is going on in the Ukraine we need a great Churchillian war leader, Johnson thinks he possesses the right qualities, let's hope he's correct.
  • When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?

    Apparently before next weeks PMQs

    It is reported six more investigators have been added to Sue Gray's team

    I will be surprised if Boris sees the month out
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Nigelb said:



    Yes, it’s reasonably likely that approving a particular development in a given area dooms another one, so ‘the more the better’ might not apply here.
    The massive local opposition, and the somewhat dodgy penumbra around the deal wouldn’t have helped.

    In the longer run, switcheable pan European connections, rather than just country to country, are of far greater importance to reliable energy.

    No opinion on the specific case, but when I was PPS to the Energy Minister (about 14 years ago now) there was a fair amount of EU (and therefore then British) interest in a long-term grid to be developed gradually over a generation from Norway to North Africa, partly because although wind and solar energy vary with thr weather, you don't usually get the same weather all over Europe. You'd think that transmission loss over long distances would be a big factor, but it didn't seem to be as much as you might expect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    R4 says rebels have tape recordings of threats made by Tory whips
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Its not the pissups so much as all the lies / attempted cover up and also it is increasingly clear it wasn't a single incident, it is culture of just ignoring the rules over the course of at least a year.
    Spot on.

    A quick apology, explaining how much stress his team was under given how hard they were working, "in retrospect, this informal gathering was against the rules, and should not have happened. For that I apologize."

    Done. All over.

    Instead we had 'there was no party' and then 'there was no party' and then 'I didn't know the party was against the rules because no one told me.'

    The party was not a big thing. Lying repeatedly, on the other hand, is.
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I think he's going to make it BigG. However he does need to sack one hell of a lot of civil servants and severely discipline the party whips.

    Maybe with what is going on in the Ukraine we need a great Churchillian war leader, Johnson thinks he possesses the right qualities, let's hope he's correct.
    Once he starts sacking the letters will pour in seeking his own resignation
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    edited January 2022

    Fishing said:

    Is Rishi Sunak the new Gordon Brown?

    There's some similarity between this and some of the polling we saw in 2006/07 regarding Blair and Brown.

    Rishi Sunak's position has strong similarities with that of Gordon Brown back in the day.

    However, think that GB's biggest problem, was the Peter Principle. Did for him, as it did Sir Anthony Eden.

    How Sunak performs viz-a-viz the dread PP, if (or is it when?) push comes to shove (for Boris), is an open question.
    I can't see the comparison between Brown and Eden. Brown was a victim of Macmillan's events, dear boy, events in the shape of the global financial crisis.

    Eden was master of his own demise via Suez and, to a lesser extent, the Buster Crabb affair.
    Chuchill thought Eden just was NOT up to the job of replacing him. And he was right.

    Ditto Blair with Brown.
    But the fact that they didn't idenitfy and develop a decent successor is a huge indictment of them, as just much as on those who followed them.
    Think you may be . . . err . . . fishing on this one. Esp. the "huge"; certainly history as written so far does NOT agree this is a major criticism of WSC.

    Can you cite examples of elected politicos who actually achieved such identification and / or development?
    No - it's a very difficult thing to do. And people with the ego and megalomania to want to be heads of government basically like to think themselves immortal, so don't like to plan for their political deaths.

    Some of the accounts of WSC that I've read basically think that he fell into that trap. And he definitely didn't develop a successor. So yes I think it's a huge indictment.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    IanB2 said:

    R4 says rebels have tape recordings of threats made by Tory whips

    Sounds a bit Cummings-y, but I'm assuming they made them without his input or advice.

    Doesn't sound good for the govt.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak considers direct payment to poorest to ease cost of living crisis

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1484235987781828610?s=20

    How about £20 a week on UC?
    Radical I know.
    Needs to be £21 a week by now, surely the poorest in society should get the same triple lock that we offer the richest cohort?
    Once again those on other benefits e.g. disability or ESA or Carers are forgotten and ignored. Perhaps because they don't register with news editors?

    :angry:
    ESA is part of Universal Credit.
    Not so.

    New-style ESA is a contribution-based benefit, not means tested and usually payable for only one year. Completely separate from UC (albeit a parallel UC claim will take any ESA in payment into account, and will be accordingly reduced).
    And there are still people on legacy benefits.
    Well indeed.
    And whose bloody fault is it that 11 years into government their flagship benefits policy still hasn't been rolled out?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited January 2022
    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups? lying to the HoC, blackmailing his MPs, trying to save sleaze-ridden MPs, failing to focus on the detail of the PM job... Finally dawning on MPs that he was utterly unsuitable for the job once Brexit was vaguely sorted



    FTFY - there are a lot of options..
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    IanB2 said:

    R4 says rebels have tape recordings of threats made by Tory whips

    Not...enough...popcorn...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    R4 says rebels have tape recordings of threats made by Tory whips

    If so, the damage is spreading.
    Why it was beyond the wit of the Conservative party to cauterise this weeks ago is baffling.
    They aren't very competent?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    edited January 2022

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Actually, I think you meant:

    Boris - piss-ups in large groups whilst there was a lockdown making such gathering illegal and 1000s were fined for similar behaviour and hounded by the police. And then lying about it. Repeatedly. Including to Parliament.

    No argument from me, though I think that the mistake was to impose those rules in the first place, rather than making them guidance, and in fairness to Boris he stuck it out as long as he could until it became politically impossible.

    Personally, I'd guess he'll surive at least until May, but I could of course be wrong.
  • Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?

    Apparently before next weeks PMQs

    It is reported six more investigators have been added to Sue Gray's team

    I will be surprised if Boris sees the month out
    The men in Gray’s troop?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Its not the pissups so much as all the lies / attempted cover up and also it is increasingly clear it wasn't a single incident, it is culture of just ignoring the rules over the course of at least a year.
    Spot on.

    A quick apology, explaining how much stress his team was under given how hard they were working, "in retrospect, this informal gathering was against the rules, and should not have happened. For that I apologize."

    Done. All over.

    Instead we had 'there was no party' and then 'there was no party' and then 'I didn't know the party was against the rules because no one told me.'

    The party was not a big thing. Lying repeatedly, on the other hand, is.
    The Party was quite a big thing, Robert.

    It's easy to forget now just how strictly enforced and complied with the lockdown regulations were then. A party of any size anywhere woud have been likely to have attracted a fair degree of attention and opprobrium.

    But at Downing Street....?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,032
    edited January 2022

    When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?

    Apparently before next weeks PMQs

    It is reported six more investigators have been added to Sue Gray's team

    I will be surprised if Boris sees the month out
    The men in Gray’s troop?
    Why men, it could be women or mixture of both
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Heathener said:

    From another PB.

    "Stanley Johnson was in my local in Queens Park on Monday night, drinking a half of lager in an Estrella glass and eating cheese crisps. I mentioned to someone that it must be tense in the Johnson family at the moment, and was reminded of an incident here last summer when someone approached Stanley in the same pub to tell him that his son was a c*nt. To which Johnson Senior wearily replied, 'Yes, I know.'"

    Brilliant :smiley:

    I don't think Jo Johnson thinks a lot of his brother either.
    Sounds to me like shutting down what would be a tedious discussion that’s stopping him enjoying his lager in peace
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Don't like the outcome of your choices?
    Change the rules.
    Tory 101.
  • I owe Boris Johnson an apology.


  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Fraser Nelson: Boris deserves one last chance, but he may be incapable now of taking it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/20/boris-deserves-one-last-chance-may-incapable-now-taking/

    How surprised can we really be about Boris Johnson’s No 10 shenanigans? He has always been a rule-flouting, outrage-inducing politician – that’s why he managed to deliver Brexit, save the Conservative Party and win the biggest majority they’ve seen in a generation. Covid-19 restrictions are now being dropped because his vaccine programme (again) triumphed. He has arguably achieved more in 30 months than John Major did in seven years – and he gets kicked out because his staff held a few parties?

    Fraser makes a good case for him imo, but it's a coin toss whether he stays or goes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Nigelb said:



    Yes, it’s reasonably likely that approving a particular development in a given area dooms another one, so ‘the more the better’ might not apply here.
    The massive local opposition, and the somewhat dodgy penumbra around the deal wouldn’t have helped.

    In the longer run, switcheable pan European connections, rather than just country to country, are of far greater importance to reliable energy.

    No opinion on the specific case, but when I was PPS to the Energy Minister (about 14 years ago now) there was a fair amount of EU (and therefore then British) interest in a long-term grid to be developed gradually over a generation from Norway to North Africa, partly because although wind and solar energy vary with thr weather, you don't usually get the same weather all over Europe. You'd think that transmission loss over long distances would be a big factor, but it didn't seem to be as much as you might expect.
    The long distance cables use HVDC which reduces transmission losses compared to the AC used for normal bits of the grid.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    Actually, I think you meant:

    Boris - piss-ups in large groups whilst there was a lockdown making such gathering illegal and 1000s were fined for similar behaviour and hounded by the police. And then lying about it. Repeatedly. Including to Parliament.

    No argument from me, though I think that the mistake was to impose those rules in the first place, rather than making them guidance, and in fairness to Boris he stuck it out as long as he could until it became politically impossible.

    Personally, I'd guess he'll surive at least until May, but I could of course be wrong.
    That's what I think too.

  • Billy Wragg doesn’t want to change the world, he’s not looking for a new England, he’s just looking for another PM.

    A16 Highway to the Irish Sea :lol:
    I have no doubt got the wrong end of the stick here but doesn't the A16 run between Peterborough and Grimsby?
    [sigh]
    It's a play on a) Bragg's "A13 Highway to the Sea", and b) Article 16.
  • I owe Boris Johnson an apology.


    Only misfits and weirdos would think of buying wine by the suitcase! Great innovation, Dom.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    geoffw said:

    Fraser Nelson: Boris deserves one last chance, but he may be incapable now of taking it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/20/boris-deserves-one-last-chance-may-incapable-now-taking/

    How surprised can we really be about Boris Johnson’s No 10 shenanigans? He has always been a rule-flouting, outrage-inducing politician – that’s why he managed to deliver Brexit, save the Conservative Party and win the biggest majority they’ve seen in a generation. Covid-19 restrictions are now being dropped because his vaccine programme (again) triumphed. He has arguably achieved more in 30 months than John Major did in seven years – and he gets kicked out because his staff held a few parties?

    Fraser makes a good case for him imo, but it's a coin toss whether he stays or goes.

    Yes. But it isn't because his staff held a few parties, is it, Fraser?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited January 2022

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    Is that even within her (Gray's) remit?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Nigelb said:



    Yes, it’s reasonably likely that approving a particular development in a given area dooms another one, so ‘the more the better’ might not apply here.
    The massive local opposition, and the somewhat dodgy penumbra around the deal wouldn’t have helped.

    In the longer run, switcheable pan European connections, rather than just country to country, are of far greater importance to reliable energy.

    No opinion on the specific case, but when I was PPS to the Energy Minister (about 14 years ago now) there was a fair amount of EU (and therefore then British) interest in a long-term grid to be developed gradually over a generation from Norway to North Africa, partly because although wind and solar energy vary with thr weather, you don't usually get the same weather all over Europe. You'd think that transmission loss over long distances would be a big factor, but it didn't seem to be as much as you might expect.
    The long distance cables use HVDC which reduces transmission losses compared to the AC used for normal bits of the grid.
    There have also been some serious improvements in materials - part of the ongoing Materials Revolution - which make long distance undersea power cables practical.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I think he's going to make it BigG. However he does need to sack one hell of a lot of civil servants and severely discipline the party whips.

    Maybe with what is going on in the Ukraine we need a great Churchillian war leader, Johnson thinks he possesses the right qualities, let's hope he's correct.
    Once he starts sacking the letters will pour in seeking his own resignation
    Even if we get the 54 letters he should still get the 181 votes (or whatever it is) to survive.

    I am resigned to many years of Johnson.

    I cannot contemplate any UK politician in my lifetime coming close to surviving such a ****storm. Anyone else would have gone weeks ago. But Boris will be Boris.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    RobD said:

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    Is that even within her (Gray's) remit?
    I don't know, but if not, what's the point of it? Shouldn't the Standards Committee get involved?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Fishing said:

    Causes of recent PMs' downfall:

    Callaghan - Winter of Discontent
    Mrs Thatcher - Europe/Poll Tax/General staleness
    Major - Europe/lots of other stuff
    Blair - Middle East
    Brown - Economy/leadership style
    Cameron - Europe
    May - Europe
    Boris - a few pissups?

    It was widely pointed out why Johnson wasn't fit for office from the moment he was elected leader. Have the reasons for any other PM's downfall ever been so accurately and widely predicted before they even took office? I can't think of one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    dixiedean said:

    geoffw said:

    Fraser Nelson: Boris deserves one last chance, but he may be incapable now of taking it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/20/boris-deserves-one-last-chance-may-incapable-now-taking/

    How surprised can we really be about Boris Johnson’s No 10 shenanigans? He has always been a rule-flouting, outrage-inducing politician – that’s why he managed to deliver Brexit, save the Conservative Party and win the biggest majority they’ve seen in a generation. Covid-19 restrictions are now being dropped because his vaccine programme (again) triumphed. He has arguably achieved more in 30 months than John Major did in seven years – and he gets kicked out because his staff held a few parties?

    Fraser makes a good case for him imo, but it's a coin toss whether he stays or goes.

    Yes. But it isn't because his staff held a few parties, is it, Fraser?
    The neolibs don't want to let their golden boy go under... but they can see that nothing can really save him now.
  • RobD said:

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    Is that even within her (Gray's) remit?
    I don't know, but if not, what's the point of it? Shouldn't the Standards Committee get involved?
    The point of the inquiry is to protect the PM and give him a chance to reset.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Actually those parties that night took place while Boris was at Chequers

    The one he accepted he went to was in May 20

    However, he will still lose his premiership because of his lack of awareness
    I think he's going to make it BigG. However he does need to sack one hell of a lot of civil servants and severely discipline the party whips.

    Maybe with what is going on in the Ukraine we need a great Churchillian war leader, Johnson thinks he possesses the right qualities, let's hope he's correct.
    Once he starts sacking the letters will pour in seeking his own resignation
    Even if we get the 54 letters he should still get the 181 votes (or whatever it is) to survive.

    I am resigned to many years of Johnson.

    I cannot contemplate any UK politician in my lifetime coming close to surviving such a ****storm. Anyone else would have gone weeks ago. But Boris will be Boris.
    I would not be surprised if you are correct. I was wondering about this in a previous thread
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    When is Gray's report expected to land - anyone any ideas?

    Apparently before next weeks PMQs

    It is reported six more investigators have been added to Sue Gray's team

    I will be surprised if Boris sees the month out
    The men in Gray’s troop?
    Why men, it could be women or mixture of both
    It was a pun, a play on words
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    dixiedean said:

    geoffw said:

    Fraser Nelson: Boris deserves one last chance, but he may be incapable now of taking it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/20/boris-deserves-one-last-chance-may-incapable-now-taking/

    How surprised can we really be about Boris Johnson’s No 10 shenanigans? He has always been a rule-flouting, outrage-inducing politician – that’s why he managed to deliver Brexit, save the Conservative Party and win the biggest majority they’ve seen in a generation. Covid-19 restrictions are now being dropped because his vaccine programme (again) triumphed. He has arguably achieved more in 30 months than John Major did in seven years – and he gets kicked out because his staff held a few parties?

    Fraser makes a good case for him imo, but it's a coin toss whether he stays or goes.

    Yes. But it isn't because his staff held a few parties, is it, Fraser?
    The neolibs don't want to let their golden boy go under... but they can see that nothing can really save him now.
    Why do you think he's stirring things up in the Ukraine if not as a decoy to distract from all this partying and dissembling?

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    The Australian Governor-General did, but in the circumstance where the PM couldn't secure supply.

    In theory the Queen has that power, but she's shown no inclination to act independently, and the last time a Monarch sought to impose their will in this way the Commons prevailed.

    Who does she appoint instead?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    rcs1000 said:


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    5h
    big news in the energy world,
    @KwasiKwarteng
    has just rejected the Aquind £1.2bn undersea cable from Portsmouth to France


    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1484170628995301383

    That's a bit weird. I'm of the view that the more potential sources of energy you have, the better.
    Roadworks in a marginal just before an election…
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    The Tories bottled it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories bottled it.

    I don’t think this is over yet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories bottled it.

    That remains to be seen. I think the Gray report is the moment of maximum danger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    RobD said:

    Compounding this problem is that the rules as they stand mean should Johnson win a confidence vote, he could not be challenged for another year.

    Tory MPs who aren’t sure what to do are using this scenario to argue that they would be better off waiting until after the local elections in May before deciding. This position is unpopular with those who have councillors up for elections in May.

    I understand that at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive this week it was suggested that they should discuss a rule change designed to deal with this problem. A threshold of 25 per cent would be set for a second ballot within a year. This would mean that if a ballot were held in the coming weeks that Johnson survived, there could then be another one after, say, the local elections, assuming 90 Tory MPs wanted it.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-civil-war-could-drag-on-to-the-summer-l7xn29cz7

    Hypothetical Question:

    If Sue Gray finds that Johnson did break the ministerial code and lied to parliament, yet he doesn't resign, and wins a Vonc, what happens next?

    Didn't the Australian Governor General sack a PM in the 70s?

    Does the Queen have the power to do that?

    Asking for a friend....
    Is that even within her (Gray's) remit?
    Don't think so.

    But as i understand it the sovereign retains the right to dismiss her ministry.

    It is a bit of a nuclear option so I doubt Queen would want to go anywhere near it.

    Was discussed as an option during Home Rule crisis 1913/14.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    image

    😕.

    I must have missed it but what is the significance of Norman ?
    No worries Big G

    We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower. because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman. What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere. They are a double act.

    That’s Norman. 🙂
    There’s several reasons why Norman is important. Without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. The rest of the best of UK investigative journalism can’t sustain it without Normans evidence, even though some of them, like the paper with its finger on the pulse of the nation The Sun had editor at the party’s! The longer it goes without Norman, the stronger Boris gets the more it’s gets set back to the start again.

    Are you up to speed on the meaning of the winged totenkopf?

    PS Down below when you said the big party nite with the DJ was not politicians but civil servants, wasn’t it mostly spads, aren’t they different than CS?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    After a couple of frenetic days, it seems quieter tonight. Has the Prime Minister ridden out the storm of criticism or are we all awaiting the Gray report with breath most bated?

    I find it highly amusing that people think that Boris will give a f**k what is in the Gray report.

    This is a man who had parties whilst the monarch was socially isolating at her husband's funeral.

    After that, do you think he gives a toss about some report?
    Said from the start it would be a whitewash.
    And if it isn't it won't be released. The PM is that shameless.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Farooq said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    geoffw said:

    Fraser Nelson: Boris deserves one last chance, but he may be incapable now of taking it

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/20/boris-deserves-one-last-chance-may-incapable-now-taking/

    How surprised can we really be about Boris Johnson’s No 10 shenanigans? He has always been a rule-flouting, outrage-inducing politician – that’s why he managed to deliver Brexit, save the Conservative Party and win the biggest majority they’ve seen in a generation. Covid-19 restrictions are now being dropped because his vaccine programme (again) triumphed. He has arguably achieved more in 30 months than John Major did in seven years – and he gets kicked out because his staff held a few parties?

    Fraser makes a good case for him imo, but it's a coin toss whether he stays or goes.

    Yes. But it isn't because his staff held a few parties, is it, Fraser?
    The neolibs don't want to let their golden boy go under... but they can see that nothing can really save him now.
    Why do you think he's stirring things up in the Ukraine if not as a decoy to distract from all this partying and dissembling?

    Wait.. do you think Boris Johnson is responsible for all this Ukraine stuff?
    Sorry I can't help you Farouk. You'll just have to scratch a bit harder.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories bottled it.

    Sunak should have pulled rank and hammered Brady Old Lady with about 40 letters from his acolytes this week. He’d be PM within weeks. Now he might well never be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Literally no one in the BBC QT audience willing to speak up for Johnson.
  • Foxy said:

    Literally no one in the BBC QT audience willing to speak up for Johnson.

    Oh, they must be ALL Labour plants :lol:
  • image

    😕.

    I must have missed it but what is the significance of Norman ?
    No worries Big G

    We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower. because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman. What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere. They are a double act.

    That’s Norman. 🙂
    There’s several reasons why Norman is important. Without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. The rest of the best of UK investigative journalism can’t sustain it without Normans evidence, even though some of them, like the paper with its finger on the pulse of the nation The Sun had editor at the party’s! The longer it goes without Norman, the stronger Boris gets the more it’s gets set back to the start again.

    Are you up to speed on the meaning of the winged totenkopf?

    PS Down below when you said the big party nite with the DJ was not politicians but civil servants, wasn’t it mostly spads, aren’t they different than CS?
    Thanks for that and it makes sense

    As I understood the two parties on the same night were the civil servant staff but I stand to be corrected and I am sure it will be identified in SG report next week
This discussion has been closed.