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Tory MP defects to Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    tlg86 said:

    Because incumbency matters. A lot. I think if you have nearly 50 seats more than the second highest party, you have a right to be in 10 Downing Street.
    A right to put oneself to the HoC. Not quite the same thing.

    Problem is, if the SNP and LDs disagree ...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited January 2022

    No, but I suppose it also depends what one includes in levelling up. If people are going to feel a clear dip in their living standards, which they may well do in the next few months, in my mind that's already started to become merged with the levelling up issue, or rhetoric of equality - others may disagree - because people may simply feel that their level has to be raised up even further in balance, to satisfy what was advertised. It just looks to me as if many people may suffer a substantial shock with costs, and trust has been lowered.

    That's why although I agree with your analysis that partygate needs leaks to keep it going, I don't think it's just froth. A lot of trust has been lost for some people, and when you merge with that sudden or unpredictable changes in living standards, all sorts of things can emerge.
    Infrastructure. I would say. Correct me where wrong, but Tory mayor were appearing in Red Wall long before Boris came along saying levelling up. These Mayors broke with years of rolling over letting globalisation tickle tummy under New Labour with venture capitalism by introducing things like free ports.

    Jobs I would say. Boris planted a question for him in todays PMQs about a red wall constituency creating proper jobs in a battery plant. In power they have power to gerrymander an awful lot of constituency’s like this. Levelling up is far from a busted flush. Impression of levelling up can easily win Tories a majority at next GE from here.

    PS thanks for acknowledging my observance without Cummings and Norman the media are hopeless at maintaining this froth on their own.
  • ydoethur said:

    Didn't Trump's lot do that?
    Technique (ab)used from time to time by Republicans AND Democrats in USA
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    It is surprising what an almighty mess the Conservatives have got themselves into. It’s genuinely impressive. Damned if they do. Damned if they don’t.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Fortunately, @Leon will wear a 'raincoat', so there'll be no danger of him catching a 'sniffle'.
    Yet another Leon injoke I don’t understand 🤷‍♀️
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    Technique (ab)used from time to time by Republicans AND Democrats in USA
    That's one American import I'd be happy to see high barriers to entry slapped on.

    Anyway, on another matter, it's looking really grim in Tonga. So far the official death toll is at three but looking at the devastation it's surely going to be far, far higher. And without food and water and major difficulties getting it in, things could get worse before they get better.
  • I thought Cromwell came up with the quote?
    And I thought it was an aging Lloyd George who saw off Chamberlain with his speech.
    "The nation is prepared for every sacrifice so long as it has leadership, as long as the Government show clearly what they are aiming at and so long as the nation is confident that those who are leading it are doing their best. I say solemnly that the Prime Minister should give an example of sacrifice, because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice the seals of office."
  • I thought Cromwell came up with the quote?
    In 1653, when running the Rump of the Loooong Parliament out of the Palace of Westminster.

    Who knows who HE stole it from? Cause bet ya he did!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    IshmaelZ said:

    Who could be that right twice in a lifetime?

    I am on lab maj at 11/2, now in to 9/2. We shall see.
    This time you’re wrong. 🙂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.

    No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.

    Any further questions?
    What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.

    They are a double act.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    And I thought it was an aging Lloyd George who saw off Chamberlain with his speech.
    "The nation is prepared for every sacrifice so long as it has leadership, as long as the Government show clearly what they are aiming at and so long as the nation is confident that those who are leading it are doing their best. I say solemnly that the Prime Minister should give an example of sacrifice, because there is nothing which can contribute more to victory in this war than that he should sacrifice the seals of office."
    There was no one speech that saw off Chamberlain. Sir Roger Keyes was arguably as important as Amery by demonstrating the confusion of tactics due to conflicting orders causing both military defeats and a collapse in morale. Sinclair was forensic in demonstrating that there was a lack of grip and clarity in strategic decision making screwing up the logistics, as to a lesser extent was Attlee. Arthur Greenwood's closing speech was perfectly judged and focussed on policy, which made Chamberlain's decision to make the whole thing about personality even more unwise. Clement Davies didn't speak, but without him nobody would have heard Amery's speech.

    Let's call it a team effort and leave it at that.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    ydoethur said:

    Well, current affairs are revolving around heads.
    Nice pun.

    Are you strong on the civil war period of History Dr Y?

    Was Cromwell a Freemason?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    edited January 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Out enjoying the winter weather and an afternoon's equine activity in East Sussex so catching up on today's happenings.

    I don't know if anyone has noted the YouGov poll in the Evening Standard:

    Labour 55 Conservative 23 LD 9 Green 7 Reform 3 are the capital-wide figures.

    This hides a 43-point Labour lead in Inner London (61-18) and a 26-point lead in Outer London (51-25).

    The 2018 local election figures were Labour 44 Conservative 29 LD 13

    Now, it might be easy to extrapolate from 2018 to tonight's figures and suggest a Conservative bloodbath but I'm much less convinced. Labour struggles to get its vote out historically at local elections and if it is going to take Wandsworth, Hillingdon and perhaps Barnet it will need to be getting the vote out.

    Conversely, the Conservative and (where targeted) the LD vote tends to come out so for all the froth and fury, in London at any rate, it may not be too much different in vote shares to 2018 at this time. How it will look Borough by Borough is much harder to fathom - I'm tempted by the old adage there's usually less change than you expect.

    Yes, feels like Deja vu of 2018 to me regarding expectations.

    I tend to agree with that regarding Labour (not even Wandsworth is certain and I can't see a Labour majority on Barnet council). I can see the Tories doing worse now but I think the Tories will bottom out at 25% in London in May. Hillingdon won't happen either I don't think, just gaining a handful of extra council seats in Johnson's constituency would be a good result.

    I think Westminster will be the 'shock' if it happens but don't expect it to.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited January 2022

    What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.

    They are a double act.
    Yup, and it started over Christmas, which is why I think Partygate is part of a lasting impact for the Tories. First there was Paterson, then generic sleaze, and then, just as that was subsiding - and exactly as he done every couple of weeks since then - Cummings and his "friend" arrived at exactly the right moment to prolong the narrative. As a result, a lot of people have had a continuous three months of disillusion with the Tories now, and that's what's behind the 13-point leads, I think.
  • ydoethur said:

    That's one American import I'd be happy to see high barriers to entry slapped on.

    Anyway, on another matter, it's looking really grim in Tonga. So far the official death toll is at three but looking at the devastation it's surely going to be far, far higher. And without food and water and major difficulties getting it in, things could get worse before they get better.
    Based on experience of Mt St Helens eruption/explosion, am more hopeful loss of life will be than you fear.

    Appears most in Tonga got tsunami warning, which of course was not an issue with MSH. Nor did Tongans have to deal with mud & debris flows down rivers. In both cases plenty of rocks & esp. ash raining down. Highly survivable provided not too heavy in your locality AND you could find shelter.

    Huge problem in both cases: dealing with and cleaning out inches-to-feet of ash deposited, which in Tonga's case has reportedly taken out most if not all potable water infrastructure.

    PLUS the Tongans now face risk of COVID, in country that IIRC has had just ONE reported case.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    edited January 2022

    Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.

    Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then.
    Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word.
    Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done.
    Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.

    Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.

    Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
    Inclined to agree. I think it is reasonably clear what is needed:

    1 - Do it at wholesale not retail level, so as to reduce retail inflation pressure.
    2 - Do it short term (4 or 6 months?) as it may be a shorter term issue than the industry are shouting about. Then review.
    3 - Maintain the existing price cap. Given reduced summer demand, bills may well go down. Gas demand will reduce significantly as less is needed for heating, and less to make electricity. Given that lots more electricity is coming on stream, that pressure for usage of gas may also have been mitigated by autumn to some extent.
    4 - Borrowing has undershot expectations significantly, so there is headroom for financing if required.
    5 - Offer appropriate short term support for the industry by some mechanism. Perhaps cap wholesale electricity prices.

    I would say leave VAT exactly where it is, and review in time for autumn.

    Strong action required as there is limited political capital (!) left to spaff away at this point.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,843

    I think there is a reasonable chance that Dominic Cummings is not nearly as brilliant as Dominic Cummings thinks Dominic Cummings is.
    Maybe that’s still good enough to outwit a lumbering clown?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,843

    What tends to happen is, Cummings blogs something, like look at the party on the 20th, which might make a footnote bottom of the times front page. Then “Norman” follows up with the actual bring your invite and it’s headlines everywhere.

    They are a double act.
    Like Sean and Leon?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    IanB2 said:

    Like Sean and Leon?
    🙂

    To be serious, like Cummings and spinners working for Rishi.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    .

    This is dodgy as hell:

    https://twitter.com/TyneTom/status/1483878839642202120

    A communication from North Tyneside Conservatives dolled up to look like an official local council letter.

    Rules don't apply to North Tyneside Conservatives, they only apply to to he little people.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,110

    Do you have a link to the claim phonics don’t work? In my experience they are a damn sight better than child centred learning and whole word guessing
    https://bera-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rev3.3314
This discussion has been closed.