So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
The Gray report isn’t likely to criticize Johnson directly and the process is deeply flawed . She reports to the Cabinet Secretary who was allegedly at one of the parties and then the report finishes up at Johnson’s desk !
By any stretch this so called independent report is laughable.
I expect no 10 to try and dupe the public into thinking the report is truly independent and for the right wing press to spin it the same way .
Whether the public see its a whitewash will go a long way to determining whether Bozo survives .
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Very few are adopting an anti science viewpoint.
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Exactly.
I am pretty sure the Palace would have advised him NOT to come to them until all the games and meetings had run their course.
The Queen does not want the merest hint of being political, so she does not want to know until the game of thrones is settled unless there can be no settlement.
There really is a load of bollocks talked about this.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Because incumbency matters. A lot. I think if you have nearly 50 seats more than the second highest party, you have a right to be in 10 Downing Street.
Random question but is there any generally accepted back of the envelope answer for the relative infectiousness/transmissibility of all the different variants of covid relative to the original one? Just curious to know how much more infectious each version's been than the last.
Delta is about 5.0 R0, around 60% higher than Wuhan which was around 3.0, Omicron is maybe double again to as high as 10.0. Which makes it one of the highest basic reproduction rates going, around 13-14 are the highest numbers for any viruses. Combined with the short serial interval of about 4 days the net effect is that Omicron is probably the most transmissible virus seen in the modern era.
It's worth saying that there is a lot of uncertainty with such figures, and you will see all sorts of different numbers from various sources. Outbreaks under different conditions (demographic and environmental) will give different numbers, so studies from other countries will show some sometimes quite substantially different values.
The inherent weakness of the way these people do their models is, I believe, the failure to allow adequately for the heterogeneity of the population. As each wave develops, its growth rate slows as it hits the most susceptible, sociable and largest households first. Like a forest fire than burns through the undergrowth at an alarming rate then peters out.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
I am pretty sure no one in Whitehall has forgotten the truly sad and lamentable effort of Lord Hutton and the derision that he endured until his death. It won't take much, just the odd comment like it is surprising the email chain did not come to the attention of the PM etc or the PM's recollection of X is difficult to reconcile with Y.
Boris has zero credibility on this. She doesn't need to shout liar, liar, pants on fire.
If the letters were in, would this be announced immediately?
Seems bizarre there's no VONC yet.
Not sure what the protocol is. Perhaps it is 24 hours after the last letter is in? Someone ought to get Graham Brady pissed and get him to reveal all! It may be in the plotters interest to spin it out a bit. We haven't had any ministerial resignations yet, which one would expect if this has been in any way co-ordinated.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
Back to University? Is that an affordable option?
Is there anything around reopening tourism in the Lakes? Park authority and so on?
Or something in that sort of line ... whether a new business or an existing place needing a go-getter?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
One can only hope!
Not so long ago, the only enjoyment PB’ers had was watching Leon wetting himself about the upcoming alien invasion.
That our politicians were prepared to lay on this lavish spread for us, just to push Leon’s paranoia off of our screens, is hugely to their credit.
My powers exceed the wildest dreams of my already sizeable ego
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
I still think he will be forced out after the May local elections as they won’t go well.
Reading around the various twitter feeds there doesn't seem to be a lot to go on but I suspect Dominic Cummings is preparing to lob a few more proof grenades.
The Gray report isn’t likely to criticize Johnson directly and the process is deeply flawed . She reports to the Cabinet Secretary who was allegedly at one of the parties and then the report finishes up at Johnson’s desk !
By any stretch this so called independent report is laughable.
I expect no 10 to try and dupe the public into thinking the report is truly independent and for the right wing press to spin it the same way .
Whether the public see its a whitewash will go a long way to determining whether Bozo survives .
Just a point, are you sure she reports to the cabinet secretary as I am not at all sure she does
I understood she reports her findings directly to Boris
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I am pretty sure no one in Whitehall has forgotten the truly sad and lamentable effort of Lord Hutton and the derision that he endured until his death. It won't take much, just the odd comment like it is surprising the email chain did not come to the attention of the PM etc or the PM's recollection of X is difficult to reconcile with Y.
Boris has zero credibility on this. She doesn't need to shout liar, liar, pants on fire.
Are you now a further late addition to ever growing membership of the "Boris Johnson is shit club"?
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
We need to get back to work. For productivity, to learn, for mental health, for team building, shared values and societal conditioning. Even someone near the end of their career like me can see this as plain as day.
We need to stop kidding ourselves.
That's true of some jobs, not true of others. Where I work, with mostly young staff, they virtually unanimous view is that they prefer working from home. I don't get the impression that they are zealous mask-wearers living in isolation, but they don't see the point of giving up 90 minutes a day trekking in to sit at a desk with a higher risk of infection. They don't, in general, get their social life from work, and I know some of them have taken up park runs and diverse hobbies for contact. But they mostly get social life where they live, which is generally a long way from work as it's so expensive round here.
Rather different in cities, perhaps?
It's an interesting one.
We've hired a bunch of (young) data scientists in Kentucky. They're earning national US wages, paying Kentucky prices for housing, and couldn't be happier to work from home.
By contrast, people who are based in LA on the same salary are in house shares, and would prefer to go to an office, over Zooming from their bedroom.
If you’ve moved to a big city like London - or LA - you haven’t done that to sit at home all day. You might as well live with your parents rent free
If you’ve moved to a job in, er, Goldalming, your aspirations are very very different
"Social media sites should not ban misleading content, UK scientists say Risks of removing information rejected by the mainstream outweigh benefits, according to the Royal Society" (via search)
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
I still think he will be forced out after the May local elections as they won’t go well.
That's my feeling too. Will be delighted if it is earlier though.
If the letters were in, would this be announced immediately?
Seems bizarre there's no VONC yet.
My take:
1. The defection has kind of "United" the disunited (at least for today) and that's one less letter in the pile.
2. David Davis is generally regarded as a moron from most of PCP. His theatrical, mellow dramatic "in the name of god go" reminded MPs that it could be worse... they might be lead by someone like him.
3. There still remains no clear cut alternative to Boris. I mean obviously there are people like Truss and Sunak but it's not obvious they would be any more popular really.
4. As he won them an 80 seat majority a lot of them probably think they owe Boris the courtesy of wait fro Sue's report before they shove him under the bus.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, .
I immensely dislike Dominic Cummings but calling him incompetent is ridiculous.
We probably have Brexit because of Cummings' brilliance and we have a whopping tory majority for the same reason.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I imagine that the British public will give us much attention to fighting in eastern Ukraine as they did to the previous fighting in eastern Ukraine, the Green men invasion of Crimea, the Russo-Georgian war, the second Chechen war or the first Chechen war. That is, very little.
I think the British public are wrong to think this way, but they do.
The jury is, I think, still out on Operation Save Big Dog.
But Operation Red Meat is, already I think, a bit of a disaster.
Day one - we're going to abolish the licence fee. Day two - no we're not, we're going to (pointlessly) freeze it for a couple of years, after that we haven't got a clue. Day three - the Royal Navy are going to sort out cross-channel crossings. Day four - no they're not, don't know why we said that but it sounded good at the time. Day five - we're going to make protesting much, much harder. Day six - the House of Lords says no, and because we haven't done our homework properly we'll have to start again.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Because incumbency matters. A lot. I think if you have nearly 50 seats more than the second highest party, you have a right to be in 10 Downing Street.
No you don't. The only person who has a right to be in Downing Street under our system is the person who can command the House.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Yes. Partygate is over. Johnson like the Six Million Dollar Man will return faster and stronger.
Ms Gray will conclude; Johnson didn't know it was a party and no one told him it was. There has been a Civil Service drinking culture in No 10, but Johnson was unaware of this.
Lots of Civil Servants will be sacked and alcohol at work will be banned, except in the private areas including Johnson's office
If we don't like Johnson's fiefdom, perhaps we should consider leaving the country.
I don't think so, because Cummings has both advertised, and darkly referred to more. And every time he's done this, whatever was finally produced has been effective. Any of his leaks have yet to fall flat, and I think that is what would mark the change in the pattern we've been stuck into.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, .
I immensely dislike Dominic Cummings but calling him incompetent is ridiculous.
We probably have Brexit because of Cummings' brilliance and we have a whopping tory majority for the same reason.
The man is appalling. But brilliant.
No, I'm sticking with 'incompetent.' The opportunity for a majority existed because of Corbyn, and was nearly lost through his clumsiness in trying to force an election at the wrong moment.
His sloganising may have helped in the Brexit referendum (as it did in the North East referendum) but it's ridiculous to pretend it was solely his influence that led to a leave vote. How far would he have got without Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage's personalities? Not far, I think.
And as for his terrible record in education, where he came up with a huge series of reforms that had pretty much the opposite effect of what he intended...
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Because incumbency matters. A lot. I think if you have nearly 50 seats more than the second highest party, you have a right to be in 10 Downing Street.
No you don't. The only person who has a right to be in Downing Street under our system is the person who can command the House.
Which, very obviously, was not James Gordon Brown.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, .
I immensely dislike Dominic Cummings but calling him incompetent is ridiculous.
We probably have Brexit because of Cummings' brilliance and we have a whopping tory majority for the same reason.
The man is appalling. But brilliant.
I think there is a reasonable chance that Dominic Cummings is not nearly as brilliant as Dominic Cummings thinks Dominic Cummings is.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
My immediate thought on reading this is - have her do some professional-career networking via Nick P?
Second thought: plus number of others here on PB, best judged by you, and NOT including me.
Re: social, am personally quite willing to consider a blind date . . . provided your daughter is likewise blind!
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
Back to University? Is that an affordable option?
She wants to work.
BAE boast that they are creating 1700 jobs this year across the board, incl apprenticeships and others.
And they are big in the North West if the area is important.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Yes. Partygate is over. Johnson like the Six Million Dollar Man will return faster and stronger.
Ms Gray will conclude; Johnson didn't know it was a party and no one told him it was. There has been a Civil Service drinking culture in No 10, but Johnson was unaware of this.
Lots of Civil Servants will be sacked and alcohol at work will be banned, except in the private areas including Johnson's office
If we don't like Johnson's fiefdom, perhaps we should consider leaving the country.
I don't think so, because Cummings has both advertised, and darkly referred to more. And every time he's done this, whatever was finally produced has been effective. Any of his leaks have yet to fall flat, and I think that is what would mark the change in the pattern we've been stuck into.
So you admit, the whole things relying on those leaks, it can’t froth or sustain itself without them?
And like Z said, each leak needs a bigger hit. Otherwise it’s “less of a story than the last one”.
Brown hanging on actually had an impact that weekend. Poor Alistair Darling had to go to an Euro crisis meeting as he was still Chancellor of the Exchequer. I think he consulted with Osborne and, thankfully, they both agreed on what Britain's position should be (i.e. "not our f****** problem!").
The jury is, I think, still out on Operation Save Big Dog.
But Operation Red Meat is, already I think, a bit of a disaster.
Day one - we're going to abolish the licence fee. Day two - no we're not, we're going to (pointlessly) freeze it for a couple of years, after that we haven't got a clue. Day three - the Royal Navy are going to sort out cross-channel crossings. Day four - no they're not, don't know why we said that but it sounded good at the time. Day five - we're going to make protesting much, much harder. Day six - the House of Lords says no, and because we haven't done our homework properly we'll have to start again.
Chaos, I reckon.
That all sounds normal for Johnson's entire premiership.
Still, if @HYUFD and chums want to keep him for the 2024 GE then who are we to moan.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Very few are adopting an anti science viewpoint.
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
Omicron has been killing more than flu and putting more strain on the NHS than flu (thus impacting on other services). Adding flu and pneumonia together is misleading. Flu is a serious illness and we spend a lot of time and effort every year on dealing with it, so even if COVID got to a point of only being as bad as the flu, which is yet to be the case, that presumably means we’d still want to spend a lot of time and effort every year dealing with it.
The societal impact of mask mandates is small. The societal impact of Gove insisting on teaching phonics, which turns out not to work, seems higher. The societal impact of the Crime and Policing Bill is serious. The societal impact of the Govt undermining democracy and demanding photo ID is serious. The societal impact of Big Tech having too much power to control our lives, and ducking all their tax, is serious.
Sure, let’s weigh up pros/cons on masks, but the idea that mask impacts are the overriding threat to personal freedom in the modern world that some here seem to think is preposterous.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Yes. Partygate is over. Johnson like the Six Million Dollar Man will return faster and stronger.
Ms Gray will conclude; Johnson didn't know it was a party and no one told him it was. There has been a Civil Service drinking culture in No 10, but Johnson was unaware of this.
Lots of Civil Servants will be sacked and alcohol at work will be banned, except in the private areas including Johnson's office
If we don't like Johnson's fiefdom, perhaps we should consider leaving the country.
I don't think so, because Cummings has both advertised, and darkly referred to more. And every time he's done this, whatever was finally produced has been effective. Any of his leaks have yet to fall flat, and I think that is what would mark the change in the pattern we've been stuck into.
So you admit, the whole things relying on those leaks, it can’t froth or sustain itself without them?
And like Z said, each leak needs a bigger hit. Otherwise it’s “less of a story than the last one”.
I agree that the leaks have been absolutely crucial. But in another way I also agree with ydoethur that it could be Johnson's own careless misjudgements most likely to get him, most fundamentally and in the end.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
It's a grotesque and unworthy insult.
To Neville Chamberlain, an absolutely selfless man who did his best (admittedly an unimpressive best) in a difficult situation and was arguably the most brilliant administrative cabinet minister of the 20th Century ahead of Bevin and Roy Jenkins.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
It is a bit disappointing that Brady isn't able to tell us how many letters there are. We could set up one of those "thermometer" charts that people use when they are fundraising which would be fun.
Thinking about it, it could be a good fundraiser for the Tories. For a couple of grand you get to sign an NDA and then you are allowed a glimpse of how close Bozo is to the chop. It would be, as he might say, "great".
Or some kind of easily broken code; "At the moment, I have eighteen bottles of wine in my fridge. I had to give one of them to Keir Starmer."
I think there was a Catalan election were opinion polling was banned, but a news outlet gave huge prominence to "fruit market prices" for four fruits that just happened to match the colours of the leading parties.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
In a way, he was lucky. At least nobody shouted 'speak for England, David!'
It is a bit disappointing that Brady isn't able to tell us how many letters there are. We could set up one of those "thermometer" charts that people use when they are fundraising which would be fun.
Thinking about it, it could be a good fundraiser for the Tories. For a couple of grand you get to sign an NDA and then you are allowed a glimpse of how close Bozo is to the chop. It would be, as he might say, "great".
Or some kind of easily broken code; "At the moment, I have eighteen bottles of wine in my fridge. I had to give one of them to Keir Starmer."
I think there was a Catalan election were opinion polling was banned, but a news outlet gave huge prominence to "fruit market prices" for four fruits that just happened to match the colours of the leading parties.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Considering Boris is a biographer of Churchill: that's got to be the most famous quotation related to Churchill that isn't by Churchill himself.
Iain Martin @iainmartin1 "PM ends the day stronger than he began it," a member of the cabinet tells me. We agree to disagree.
We are roughly where we were this time yesterday before Christopher Hope’s breathless tweet and when we were all expecting to wait for Sue Gray’s report. Johnson will in all likelihood, and as I’ve said all along, limp along to the next election.
Surely moment of the day was when Gloria De Piero had to interview Lee Anderson on GB News about what it takes to defect from Con to Labour given the Wakeford walk?
"Good riddance to bad rubbish" says Lee.
Lee was her office manager and Lab councillor when she was a Lab MP in Ashfield.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
Or, as it seemed to me, they were both, in very different ways, putting the best possible gloss on a formidably sticky wicket, doing their utmost to present an almost impossible case. Gullis doggedly stuck to his lines, which he seemed to have learned by heart, and JRM, with the thinnest of material spun a tiny piece of candy floss. What he was doing is not easy - mitigation when there isn't any. Try it.
BTW Bridgen on C4 news made the point, which could well become more significant as time goes on, that current government members are not in a good position to be the next leader, being so much part of the current despised set up.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
In a way, he was lucky. At least nobody shouted 'speak for England, David!'
Thanks for that. Caused me to look up that bit of history . The use of "In God's name go" is rather more famous though I think.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
What has changed is that the commenter who called Hartlepool as peak Boris on the day of the result, was regarded then as a drooling, self-fouling idiot, and now as a prophetic demi god. Without the demi.
We were calling him The Invisible Assailant who does the leaking, but were fortunate to have Leon give us a metaphor of Norman Bates stabbing a victim to death in shower.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Very few are adopting an anti science viewpoint.
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
I don’t want to tempt fate - the bitch - by saying where exactly I am going. Just in case She intervenes. The bureaucratic faff has been plentiful and things could still go wrong
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Considering Boris is a biographer of Churchill: that's got to be the most famous quotation related to Churchill that isn't by Churchill himself.
I had the misfortune of buying that book "The Churchill Factor". The most terrible and poorly constructed biography I have ever read. He obviously decided on the title after he had started it and then appears to have squeezed it's relevance in half way through. It really is poor, and I suspect large parts of it written, much like everything else he does, in a last minute rush to meet a deadline.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
He may lie for advantage. But here's a question. Can you think of a time when he's actually told the truth?
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Considering Boris is a biographer of Churchill: that's got to be the most famous quotation related to Churchill that isn't by Churchill himself.
I had the misfortune of buying that book "The Churchill Factor". The most terrible and poorly constructed biography I have ever read. He obviously decided on the title after he had started it and then appears to have squeezed it's relevance in half way through. It really is poor, and I suspect large parts of it written, much like everything else he does, in a last minute rush to meet a deadline.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
The repeal of the Covid restrictions is superb news, simply wonderful. It’s a genuine world first for the U.K.
Indeed, we (those outside the U.K.) need the example set here to show heel-dragging governments what to do when the key moment of danger is passed.
Rejoice in that.
Agree, what I'd like to see is the government get rid of the day 2 test for travel as well and agree test free travel to more countries. I still have no idea why the US or France, for example, require anyone to bother testing on the way in or out, both countries are registering record case numbers, one more from Spain or the UK is hardly going to make a difference.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
He may lie for advantage. But here's a question. Can you think of a time when he's actually told the truth?
I am no fan, but he has called out Johnson for being lazy and incompetent with no focus or direction (the rather childish "shopping trolley thingy). I think it is very likely all those things are true.
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
Or, as it seemed to me, they were both, in very different ways, putting the best possible gloss on a formidably sticky wicket, doing their utmost to present an almost impossible case. Gullis doggedly stuck to his lines, which he seemed to have learned by heart, and JRM, with the thinnest of material spun a tiny piece of candy floss. What he was doing is not easy - mitigation when there isn't any. Try it.
BTW Bridgen on C4 news made the point, which could well become more significant as time goes on, that current government members are not in a good position to be the next leader, being so much part of the current despised set up.
Which takes us back to one of the mysteries of the current situation. It's pretty clear that Boris is a dead PM walking, but everyone is still keen not to be the one who brings him down, even if that means that Boris takes them all down.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
What has changed is that the commenter who called Hartlepool as peak Boris on the day of the result, was regarded then as a drooling, self-fouling idiot, and now as a prophetic demi god. Without the demi.
You mean you called it peak Boris 😂
It was a good call.
Now what are the Labour and Conservative vote shares at next election for your next good call?
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Or not. The scene lacks a Churchill unless maybe we are watching a 1940 epic translated into a Whitehall farce.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Out enjoying the winter weather and an afternoon's equine activity in East Sussex so catching up on today's happenings.
I don't know if anyone has noted the YouGov poll in the Evening Standard:
Labour 55 Conservative 23 LD 9 Green 7 Reform 3 are the capital-wide figures.
This hides a 43-point Labour lead in Inner London (61-18) and a 26-point lead in Outer London (51-25).
The 2018 local election figures were Labour 44 Conservative 29 LD 13
Now, it might be easy to extrapolate from 2018 to tonight's figures and suggest a Conservative bloodbath but I'm much less convinced. Labour struggles to get its vote out historically at local elections and if it is going to take Wandsworth, Hillingdon and perhaps Barnet it will need to be getting the vote out.
Conversely, the Conservative and (where targeted) the LD vote tends to come out so for all the froth and fury, in London at any rate, it may not be too much different in vote shares to 2018 at this time. How it will look Borough by Borough is much harder to fathom - I'm tempted by the old adage there's usually less change than you expect.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
He may lie for advantage. But here's a question. Can you think of a time when he's actually told the truth?
I am no fan, but he has called out Johnson for being lazy and incompetent with no focus or direction (the rather childish "shopping trolley thingy). I think it is very likely all those things are true.
And DC did point out the absurdity of DC getting anywhere near the pinnacle of power in that Select Committee hearing.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
What has changed is that the commenter who called Hartlepool as peak Boris on the day of the result, was regarded then as a drooling, self-fouling idiot, and now as a prophetic demi god. Without the demi.
You mean you called it peak Boris 😂
It was a good call.
Now what are the Labour and Conservative vote shares at next election for your next good call?
Who could be that right twice in a lifetime?
I am on lab maj at 11/2, now in to 9/2. We shall see.
I don’t want to tempt fate - the bitch - by saying where exactly I am going. Just in case She intervenes. The bureaucratic faff has been plentiful and things could still go wrong
Ukraine! Our man on the spot.
Make sure you wrap up warm Leon, we don’t want you catching a sniffle
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
Soon as evil Putin kicks off invading towards us the narrative won’t allow any talk of a scandal over parties to nudge in, so that is a joker Boris would be happy to play.
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then. Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word. Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done. Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
I'm not sure about that, personally. The figure that I saw I think from the Resolution Foundation, of 9% of people struggling to afford energy costs moving to 25% by mid-year, is quite extraordinary.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Yet at the end of the day, the government have the instruments to not just mitigate cost of living crisis, but provide a huge immpression they are, which helps their popularity. So it shouldn’t, in a lazy way, be thought of as a certain % drop in polls for them.
Don't forget, though, that that's still much less politically straightfoward for the Tories, now that the pandemic is over. The Red Wall still wants levelling up, and the cost-of-living crisis wants addressing, but there's still significant pressure on them not to become a social democratic party, and figures like Sunak themselves are often uneasy at those kinds of solutions.
Straightforward no to that post. We are not even a year away from the Hartlepool by election last May. What’s really changed underneath this partygate froth? We don’t know. No one knows.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
No, but I suppose it also depends what one includes in levelling up. If people are going to feel a clear dip in their living standards, which they may well do in the next few months, in my mind that's already started to become merged with the levelling up issue, or rhetoric of equality - others may differ - because people may simply feel that their level should be raised even further to compensate, to satisfy what was advertised. It just looks to me that many people may suffer a substantial shock with costs, with many already disillusioned over what has happened recently.
That's why, although I agree with your analysis that partygate needs leaks to keep it going, I don't think it's just froth. A lot of trust has been lost for some people, and when you merge with that sudden or unpredictable changes in living standards, anything can happen.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
He may lie for advantage. But here's a question. Can you think of a time when he's actually told the truth?
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Pompous drivel from DD. Totally on brand.
Yep, one narcissistic c~nt calling out another narcissistic c~nt. He, Johnson and Cummings all deserve to go to The Fletcher Memorial Home
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Considering Boris is a biographer of Churchill: that's got to be the most famous quotation related to Churchill that isn't by Churchill himself.
I had the misfortune of buying that book "The Churchill Factor". The most terrible and poorly constructed biography I have ever read. He obviously decided on the title after he had started it and then appears to have squeezed it's relevance in half way through. It really is poor, and I suspect large parts of it written, much like everything else he does, in a last minute rush to meet a deadline.
Purchased Boris Johnson's "biography" of his idol from a $1 bargain bin.
Quickly found out I'd been royally ripped off; "author" should've paid me at least ten bucks for reading the rubbish.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
I think the idea was to put Boris in the position of Chamberlain and DD himself in the position of Churchill (or at least one of Churchills enablers) - the ultimate insult.
Pompous drivel from DD. Totally on brand.
Find it extremely hard to believe Boris didn’t recognise the Cromwell quote. It’s one of the most famous in British political history
Tho I confess I didn’t know it was also later aimed at chamberlain
Ch4 is a must watch. I thought after Rees Mogg it couldn't get worse.....then they interviewed Jonathan Gullis from Stoke on Trent who would struggle to get a part in the Addams Family as Thing
Yes, came across like a MAGA goon.
Did the JRM wanna-be go so far as claiming the Tory candidate actually WON in North Shropshire?
I don’t want to tempt fate - the bitch - by saying where exactly I am going. Just in case She intervenes. The bureaucratic faff has been plentiful and things could still go wrong
Ukraine! Our man on the spot.
Make sure you wrap up warm Leon, we don’t want you catching a sniffle
Fortunately, @Leon will wear a 'raincoat', so there'll be no danger of him catching a 'sniffle'.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.
The evidence is pointing to without Cummings and Normans leaks the media can’t froth it up themselves. Does this whole coup rely on a smoking gun leak or two now?
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
I think we are all getting dopamine hits off this and are so overloaded that stronger and stronger hits just do less and less for us. Davis? meh. Liar? priced in (this is why cocaine is bad for you in the long run).
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
I'm not sure it would have helped him much either. Did he really want to suggest that Davis was parroting somebody who went round overthrowing his superiors and having them killed when necessary?
You gotta just love how Bozo just lies instinctively. To claim that he had never heard the quote (whether the original or the 1930s version) was preposterous
Considering Boris is a biographer of Churchill: that's got to be the most famous quotation related to Churchill that isn't by Churchill himself.
I had the misfortune of buying that book "The Churchill Factor". The most terrible and poorly constructed biography I have ever read. He obviously decided on the title after he had started it and then appears to have squeezed it's relevance in half way through. It really is poor, and I suspect large parts of it written, much like everything else he does, in a last minute rush to meet a deadline.
Purchased Boris Johnson's "biography" of his idol from a $1 bargain bin.
Quickly found out I'd been royally ripped off; "author" should've paid me at least ten bucks for reading the rubbish.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
One could use that same logic point out that you can also be ignored because you have already, over a number of years, displayed an almost psychotic hatred for Cummings for your own personal and professional reasons.
Well, you can ignore me on the subject of Cummings if you want, and indeed you do.
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
You are blinded by rage. *Compulsive* liar is a silly charge, a compulsive liar lies for the sake of it; Cummings lies (if at all) for advantage
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
He may lie for advantage. But here's a question. Can you think of a time when he's actually told the truth?
"There was a party on May 20"
That's something he was commenting on after others had said it. Similarly he only seems to have found out about Johnson's unfitness for office and his own lack of ability after he was sacked. There is no reason to think he is telling the truth about his attempts to remove Johnson before this happy event, and every reason to think he is lying.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Very few are adopting an anti science viewpoint.
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
Omicron has been killing more than flu and putting more strain on the NHS than flu (thus impacting on other services). Adding flu and pneumonia together is misleading. Flu is a serious illness and we spend a lot of time and effort every year on dealing with it, so even if COVID got to a point of only being as bad as the flu, which is yet to be the case, that presumably means we’d still want to spend a lot of time and effort every year dealing with it.
The societal impact of mask mandates is small. The societal impact of Gove insisting on teaching phonics, which turns out not to work, seems higher. The societal impact of the Crime and Policing Bill is serious. The societal impact of the Govt undermining democracy and demanding photo ID is serious. The societal impact of Big Tech having too much power to control our lives, and ducking all their tax, is serious.
Sure, let’s weigh up pros/cons on masks, but the idea that mask impacts are the overriding threat to personal freedom in the modern world that some here seem to think is preposterous.
Do you have a link to the claim phonics don’t work? In my experience they are a damn sight better than child centred learning and whole word guessing
Comments
Let’s analyse the cost of living crisis then.
Inflation. The Financial press are predicting likely to be a blip not year long thing. Go investigate for yourself if you don’t trust my word.
Energy prices. The government are in talks with the companies to bung companies lolly and make everyone’s bills smaller. Still awkward, but not such a big political hit if government can demonstrate what they have done.
Other measures the government have planned themselves they can delay, or tweak. Vat can be axed thanks both to Brexit and the opposition.
Government has power to mitigate cost of living crisis in many ways which helps them in the polls.
Maybe not that big a political issue as being built up to be?
By any stretch this so called independent report is laughable.
I expect no 10 to try and dupe the public into thinking the report is truly independent and for the right wing press to spin it the same way .
Whether the public see its a whitewash will go a long way to determining whether Bozo survives .
Most of us are saying masks work (as does staying in your home and not seeing anyone) but there should be a cost benefit/risk assessment as there are societal costs to mask mandates. For many people masks have a significant deleterious effect on their well being.
Some of us are saying this because at this level of infectiousness and protection Omicron is similar to the flu. We point to the fact that pre 2020 we didn't wear masks for the flu. And people weren't as scared or anxious. And flu and pneumonia killed 30,000 people per year pre 2020.
I am pretty sure the Palace would have advised him NOT to come to them until all the games and meetings had run their course.
The Queen does not want the merest hint of being political, so she does not want to know until the game of thrones is settled unless there can be no settlement.
There really is a load of bollocks talked about this.
Seems bizarre there's no VONC yet.
Plus benefits have not risen with inflation since the autumn - quite apart from the egregious, appalling and economically stupid UC cut, which influenced Wakefield to cross the floor today - with many other factors in the mix, too.
Boris has zero credibility on this. She doesn't need to shout liar, liar, pants on fire.
Or something in that sort of line ... whether a new business or an existing place needing a go-getter?
> Could this be result of some faction of Tory MPs banding - or rather bundling - together?
> And could more such bundles of joy be on the way for Boris Johnson in the not-so-distant future?
> And does anyone object to yours truly collectively dubbing MPs submitting letters, "The Brady Bunch"?
However, I would point out that we are currently considering allegations from a compulsive liar. He has not, so far provided evidence, although he claims it exists.
I am basing my views on Cummings over the extremely extensive evidence of his incompetence, malice and dishonesty extending over many years in many fields to say that unless he can produce the evidence, he is worthless.
If he does produce the evidence, and it can be verified (bearing in mind he has a track record of forgery too) I will concede the point and he will suddenly become very important.
I understood she reports her findings directly to Boris
A different type of enquiry, independent and where you have to swear under oath (Cummings rather laughably is swearing under oath where he’s not obliged to) might have caused Boris real difficulty. But there is probably not enough time to force an independent enquiry into partygate before the scandal runs out of steam now?
If you’ve moved to a job in, er, Goldalming, your aspirations are very very different
Risks of removing information rejected by the mainstream outweigh benefits, according to the Royal Society" (via search)
https://www.ft.com/content/9cf1ee59-985c-4a71-ac96-895cd6413703
YES
1. The defection has kind of "United" the disunited (at least for today) and that's one less letter in the pile.
2. David Davis is generally regarded as a moron from most of PCP. His theatrical, mellow dramatic "in the name of god go" reminded MPs that it could be worse... they might be lead by someone like him.
3. There still remains no clear cut alternative to Boris. I mean obviously there are people like Truss and Sunak but it's not obvious they would be any more popular really.
4. As he won them an 80 seat majority a lot of them probably think they owe Boris the courtesy of wait fro Sue's report before they shove him under the bus.
5. All that said, Boris is still toast. Probably.
We probably have Brexit because of Cummings' brilliance and we have a whopping tory majority for the same reason.
The man is appalling. But brilliant.
I think the British public are wrong to think this way, but they do.
But Operation Red Meat is, already I think, a bit of a disaster.
Day one - we're going to abolish the licence fee.
Day two - no we're not, we're going to (pointlessly) freeze it for a couple of years, after that we haven't got a clue.
Day three - the Royal Navy are going to sort out cross-channel crossings.
Day four - no they're not, don't know why we said that but it sounded good at the time.
Day five - we're going to make protesting much, much harder.
Day six - the House of Lords says no, and because we haven't done our homework properly we'll have to start again.
Chaos, I reckon.
Indeed, we (those outside the U.K.) need the example set here to show heel-dragging governments what to do when the key moment of danger is passed.
Rejoice in that.
His sloganising may have helped in the Brexit referendum (as it did in the North East referendum) but it's ridiculous to pretend it was solely his influence that led to a leave vote. How far would he have got without Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage's personalities? Not far, I think.
And as for his terrible record in education, where he came up with a huge series of reforms that had pretty much the opposite effect of what he intended...
Bojo is still fucked.
BTW if I'd been Boris I'd have hit back at that posturing oaf Davis by pointing out that Amery, whom he thought he was quoting, was quoting Ol Cromwell. But I suspect Boris doesn't know that.
Second thought: plus number of others here on PB, best judged by you, and NOT including me.
Re: social, am personally quite willing to consider a blind date . . . provided your daughter is likewise blind!
And they are big in the North West if the area is important.
And like Z said, each leak needs a bigger hit. Otherwise it’s “less of a story than the last one”.
That all sounds normal for Johnson's entire premiership.
Still, if @HYUFD and chums want to keep him for the 2024 GE then who are we to moan.
The societal impact of mask mandates is small. The societal impact of Gove insisting on teaching phonics, which turns out not to work, seems higher. The societal impact of the Crime and Policing Bill is serious. The societal impact of the Govt undermining democracy and demanding photo ID is serious. The societal impact of Big Tech having too much power to control our lives, and ducking all their tax, is serious.
Sure, let’s weigh up pros/cons on masks, but the idea that mask impacts are the overriding threat to personal freedom in the modern world that some here seem to think is preposterous.
To Neville Chamberlain, an absolutely selfless man who did his best (admittedly an unimpressive best) in a difficult situation and was arguably the most brilliant administrative cabinet minister of the 20th Century ahead of Bevin and Roy Jenkins.
I think there was a Catalan election were opinion polling was banned, but a news outlet gave huge prominence to "fruit market prices" for four fruits that just happened to match the colours of the leading parties.
Iain Martin
@iainmartin1
"PM ends the day stronger than he began it," a member of the cabinet tells me. We agree to disagree.
Simply put, what sort of time frame does the red wall expect levelling up? Do they expect it all in this Parliament? How do they need to feel about it next general election morning to largely stick with their decision from last time?
How much swingback will there be between now and the next GE?
You can’t possibly know.
There is a Kipling short story contrasting foxhunting squires with a Mayfair dilettante who has unwillingly ended up among them which contains the perfect line, giving the dlilettante's impression of the squires, "They lied, except about horses, only from necessity."
"Good riddance to bad rubbish" says Lee.
Lee was her office manager and Lab councillor when she was a Lab MP in Ashfield.
BTW Bridgen on C4 news made the point, which could well become more significant as time goes on, that current government members are not in a good position to be the next leader, being so much part of the current despised set up.
No honestly we were, because we can now shorten The Invisible Assailant bit of a mouthful down to Norman.
Any further questions?
I don’t want to tempt fate - the bitch - by saying where exactly I am going. Just in case She intervenes. The bureaucratic faff has been plentiful and things could still go wrong
It was a good call.
Now what are the Labour and Conservative vote shares at next election for your next good call?
Out enjoying the winter weather and an afternoon's equine activity in East Sussex so catching up on today's happenings.
I don't know if anyone has noted the YouGov poll in the Evening Standard:
Labour 55 Conservative 23 LD 9 Green 7 Reform 3 are the capital-wide figures.
This hides a 43-point Labour lead in Inner London (61-18) and a 26-point lead in Outer London (51-25).
The 2018 local election figures were Labour 44 Conservative 29 LD 13
Now, it might be easy to extrapolate from 2018 to tonight's figures and suggest a Conservative bloodbath but I'm much less convinced. Labour struggles to get its vote out historically at local elections and if it is going to take Wandsworth, Hillingdon and perhaps Barnet it will need to be getting the vote out.
Conversely, the Conservative and (where targeted) the LD vote tends to come out so for all the froth and fury, in London at any rate, it may not be too much different in vote shares to 2018 at this time. How it will look Borough by Borough is much harder to fathom - I'm tempted by the old adage there's usually less change than you expect.
I am on lab maj at 11/2, now in to 9/2. We shall see.
Make sure you wrap up warm Leon, we don’t want you catching a sniffle
That's why, although I agree with your analysis that partygate needs leaks to keep it going, I don't think it's just froth. A lot of trust has been lost for some people, and when you merge with that sudden or unpredictable changes in living standards, anything can happen.
Quickly found out I'd been royally ripped off; "author" should've paid me at least ten bucks for reading the rubbish.
Tho I confess I didn’t know it was also later aimed at chamberlain