Regardless of the pros and cons of masks, and despite the subject being really boring, I do find the discussion on here a bit one-sided.
Take London transport. The anti-maskers declare that they refuse to wear a mask, or won't use the tube, and therefore a return to normal will be delayed unless Khan lifts his ludicrous rules. But what they ignore is that there's another set of people, perhaps roughly the same size, who won't use the tube if people are not wearing masks, because they don't feel safe. It really doesn't matter if they're wrong - they may be older, still nervous about Covid, and noting that it's still leading to a fair few deaths. In brief, behavioural changes brought about by the lifting of all restrictions do not all flow in the same direction.
I feel a deal of sympathy about what many people have endured during lockdown, and their financial sacrifices, I can even manage a bit for those neurotic about masks. What I find a pain in the hole is the screeching solipsism of the freedom lovers: why should I, citizen X, with life circumstances Y have to endure restrictions Z which are inconvenient to X and Y.
Also contra the assertion that it's the lockdown busybodies ramming their views down people's throats, on here afaics it's the Covid libertarians who are most often in finger prodding mode, demanding justifications for why The Man is oppressing them (despite in many cases having voted for The Man).
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Unfortunately many people will only ever see the WFH option from the perspective of how it suits their own lifestyle rather than thinking about those around them (partic young people) and also their employer.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
Some of my clients seem to use it in the context that X told me something I don’t accept or agree with. It has lost all meaning in common usage but I agree with you.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Unfortunately many people will only ever see the WFH option from the perspective of how it suits their own lifestyle rather than thinking about those around them (partic young people) and also their employer.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Unfortunately many people will only ever see the WFH option from the perspective of how it suits their own lifestyle rather than thinking about those around them (partic young people) and also their employer.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Well I remember the third weekend in May, which was, I think, when we were given permission to leave our immediate area. I took my daughters for a walk in the Peak District. (I've just looked it up - it was on the 16th May). Driving anywhere felt like a real novelty. People were friendly, but wary, giving each other a very wide berth. It wasn't the height of lockdown, but we were pretty restricted.
Looking back through those photos from April and May 2020 makes me want to weep with rage: the weird, filmic almost unnatural quality of the light creating a strange juxtaposition to the world falling apart, my children's busy lives shrinking and shrinking away. I suspect a lot of people feel a powerful emotional response when they consider that time in particular. Which is why Boris is the target of such emotional fury. (Of course, some already felt this way about him following Brexit.)
Had lunch today with a friend I hadn't seen for some time - potted shrimp then supreme of guinea fowl if you're wondering - and he started off saying how nice lockdown was, time with the family, open spaces, exercise, etc.
I asked him about the online schooling and his children (he has two). His face changed instantly. Terrible, really horrible, an awful time, youngest definitely set back in his education, etc.
It's easy to forget, even if you were affected, how for many people it was a pretty horrific time.
The worst memory - worse than jovially trying to get through each day with three children under ten without having anything at all to do, anyone to see, anywhere beyond walking distance to go, even the swings in the park taken away; worse than trying to educate them and keep them active and at the same time trying to do some sort of job - so bad that I have basically repressed it, with it coming as a shock whenever it pops unbidden into my mind, as just now, when looking at photos from May 2020 - was the feeling on waking every single day: the pleasant 20 to 30 seconds of waking up followed by the sudden feeling of dread and despair and hopelessness in the stomach as I remembered what was going on in the world, that today would be just like yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that... the feeling that didn't truly go away until the 20 to 30 seconds before drifting off to sleep. That didn't really stop happening until I was persuaded to go to a doctor in October and take some antidepressants. Just in time for lockdown 2. So while rationally I do not care that Boris and his mates had some after work drinks, emotionally I want to punch him in the face again and again and again. It's not because I think he is evil, nor incompetent (his competence isn't his greatest asset, but people more competent than him were queueing up to demand more lockdown); it's that the suffering of 2020 provokes a visceral emotional response and needs someone to blame. I need a scapegoat.
However, my keenness that the Conservative Party defenestrate him is largely rational. Rishi, or Liz, or Penny, or Jeremy would almost certainly do a better job. His moment has passed.
Sorry if this is personal - but was there follow up after the antidepressants?
The reason I ask, is a good friend, long ago, got given pills for far too long, rather than getting the help they needed after the pills had stabilised the initial situation.
That, with respect, is a somewhat dated and discredited model (that pills are the initial sticking plaster, but just a stopgap till you start working on your ishoos.) If you find a med that works for you, your best option can be to stick with it indefinitely or run the risk of a relapse: talking therapies are only about as effective as meds.
Horses for courses of course and if this is an isolated episode for @cookie brought on by specific and we hope not-to-be-repeated circumstances, you could be right in this instance.
I got to talk through my ishoos as well. I hated it. 45 minutes of talking about myself. Worse than an appraisal. And it wasn't great - it was largely geared to people who were depressed due to feelings of self worth, rather than being depressed because there was a global pandemic on and their lives were horribly restricted with little apparent prospect of the world changing. And the therapist - who I'm sure meant well - revealed, just in the course of her conversation, meant no doubt to put me at ease - that she had fairly fundamentally different views about certain aspects of pandemic management to me (such as the importance of always wearing facemasks). Which made for a fairly circumspect conversation from my point of view thereafter. BUT - she did point me in the direction of some great advice for managing your own mood. The best single piece of advice I could give anyone in this boat is to google 'get self help'. One thing I took from it was the need for 'flow' - the calmness and peace which comes from having a specific and absorbing task to focus on. The tablets helped in the short term, but my long term recovery was as much down to my rediscovery of sudoku.
Regardless of the pros and cons of masks, and despite the subject being really boring, I do find the discussion on here a bit one-sided.
Take London transport. The anti-maskers declare that they refuse to wear a mask, or won't use the tube, and therefore a return to normal will be delayed unless Khan lifts his ludicrous rules. But what they ignore is that there's another set of people, perhaps roughly the same size, who won't use the tube if people are not wearing masks, because they don't feel safe. It really doesn't matter if they're wrong - they may be older, still nervous about Covid, and noting that it's still leading to a fair few deaths. In brief, behavioural changes brought about by the lifting of all restrictions do not all flow in the same direction.
I would wear a mask if I'm on a crowded tube train for a while longer. Seems the sensible thing to do.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
Yep, genuine gaslighting is not a particularly difficult psychological abuse concept to understand. I knew someone that it happened to over a number of years. They were an elderly couple where the wife wished to get rid of her husband (number 2). Over a protracted period she attempted to convince him he had dementia when he clearly didn't. Very unpleasant indeed and a term that should not be misused IMO.
It doesn't take much; she says that vigorous walking (100 steps a minute or more) is often enough -- and I can say that that works for me. And she has backed up her arguments with descriptions of research findings.
I think anyone who has suffered from depression should search for at least a few of her columns of the subject.
(In her latest column in yesterday's newspaper, she describes a Swedish study that found that participants in Sweden's Vasaloppet had significantly lower levels of anxiety, too. Except, oddly enough, for the top female performers.)
Random question but is there any generally accepted back of the envelope answer for the relative infectiousness/transmissibility of all the different variants of covid relative to the original one? Just curious to know how much more infectious each version's been than the last.
Not a good look for Sunak sitting next to the disgraced Johnson nodding like a donkey. Chancellors are better when they remain cool.
The farce drags on. Few political groupings in the world are better at a hollow show of loyalty than British Conservatives. I vividly remember the tables banged in the 1922 Committee for Theresa May, and the rapturous backlapping applause for Ian Duncan Smith's "quiet man" speech.
This phenomenon may be because of a British tendency towards political theatricality combining with the Tories' underlying lust and laser-like focus for power, creating slightly absurd effects.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The Rook is actively posting under a new name now, of course.
I didn't know that. Are you sure, I've not picked up any similarities?
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Well I remember the third weekend in May, which was, I think, when we were given permission to leave our immediate area. I took my daughters for a walk in the Peak District. (I've just looked it up - it was on the 16th May). Driving anywhere felt like a real novelty. People were friendly, but wary, giving each other a very wide berth. It wasn't the height of lockdown, but we were pretty restricted.
Looking back through those photos from April and May 2020 makes me want to weep with rage: the weird, filmic almost unnatural quality of the light creating a strange juxtaposition to the world falling apart, my children's busy lives shrinking and shrinking away. I suspect a lot of people feel a powerful emotional response when they consider that time in particular. Which is why Boris is the target of such emotional fury. (Of course, some already felt this way about him following Brexit.)
Had lunch today with a friend I hadn't seen for some time - potted shrimp then supreme of guinea fowl if you're wondering - and he started off saying how nice lockdown was, time with the family, open spaces, exercise, etc.
I asked him about the online schooling and his children (he has two). His face changed instantly. Terrible, really horrible, an awful time, youngest definitely set back in his education, etc.
It's easy to forget, even if you were affected, how for many people it was a pretty horrific time.
The worst memory - worse than jovially trying to get through each day with three children under ten without having anything at all to do, anyone to see, anywhere beyond walking distance to go, even the swings in the park taken away; worse than trying to educate them and keep them active and at the same time trying to do some sort of job - so bad that I have basically repressed it, with it coming as a shock whenever it pops unbidden into my mind, as just now, when looking at photos from May 2020 - was the feeling on waking every single day: the pleasant 20 to 30 seconds of waking up followed by the sudden feeling of dread and despair and hopelessness in the stomach as I remembered what was going on in the world, that today would be just like yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that... the feeling that didn't truly go away until the 20 to 30 seconds before drifting off to sleep. That didn't really stop happening until I was persuaded to go to a doctor in October and take some antidepressants. Just in time for lockdown 2. So while rationally I do not care that Boris and his mates had some after work drinks, emotionally I want to punch him in the face again and again and again. It's not because I think he is evil, nor incompetent (his competence isn't his greatest asset, but people more competent than him were queueing up to demand more lockdown); it's that the suffering of 2020 provokes a visceral emotional response and needs someone to blame. I need a scapegoat.
However, my keenness that the Conservative Party defenestrate him is largely rational. Rishi, or Liz, or Penny, or Jeremy would almost certainly do a better job. His moment has passed.
Sorry if this is personal - but was there follow up after the antidepressants?
The reason I ask, is a good friend, long ago, got given pills for far too long, rather than getting the help they needed after the pills had stabilised the initial situation.
No there wasn't. But nor did I pursue it myself. I was advised to take them for six months and then arrange a review. At first, I was counting down the hours until I could take the next one. They aren't supposed to work instantly, but they did for me. For the first couple of weeks I felt fine for about 14 hours a day. To start with it felt like I needed to up the dose, but I resisted the temptation - knowing I would feel well again in a few hours meant I could do it. And gradually I went from coping for 12 hours a day to coping for 16, to 24, to longer than 24. I didn't need the next tablet so urgently. And almost by accident I cut down to one every two days, then one every three days. After about 5 months I didn't take any more.
They worked for me, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to go back on them. The best thing I got from them was the experience that how I was feeling was just a chemical imbalance in my brain. Knowing that - actually having that demonstrated to me physically - made depression less depressing.
I would suggest, humbly, that you make a follow up. Get an appointment. It will take forever on the NHS, I know, but it will be worth it.
Mental health is just... health. It is remarkable what can be done and fixed by doctors these days. As long as people go and see the doctors!
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
Yep, genuine gaslighting is not a particularly difficult psychological abuse concept to understand. I knew someone that it happened to over a number of years. They were an elderly couple where the wife wished to get rid of her husband (number 2). Over a protracted period she attempted to convince him he had dementia when he clearly didn't. Very unpleasant indeed and a term that should not be misused IMO.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
We need to get back to work. For productivity, to learn, for mental health, for team building, shared values and societal conditioning. Even someone near the end of their career like me can see this as plain as day.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Is Omicron a bit more mild? Then there is a danger it plays into the wrong thinking of Covid?
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
Those were done before Omicron, we're at q completely different stage of the pandemic than when those studies were conducted. Once again I'd like to point out that the one paper that was written for masks in Omicron said they would be entirely performative.
You're applying wild COVID and Alpha COVID studies to Omicron, but Omicron is something like 16x more transmissive than them.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
Yep, genuine gaslighting is not a particularly difficult psychological abuse concept to understand. I knew someone that it happened to over a number of years. They were an elderly couple where the wife wished to get rid of her husband (number 2). Over a protracted period she attempted to convince him he had dementia when he clearly didn't. Very unpleasant indeed and a term that should not be misused IMO.
It's a serious phenomenon but I don't like the term "gaslighting". A more scientific description would be better IMO.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors. I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
Well, busy old day today. Hardly stopped running around for the last twelve hours with one thing and another.
Did I miss anything?
Apparently someone I have never heard of has changed his seat in the Commons. And David Davis is still an arse.
I've always quite liked David Davis. Very sound on civil liberties. And Dominic Cummings hates his guts and thinks he's vain and stupid, so he must be a pleasant, highly intelligent and modest sort of person.
Random question but is there any generally accepted back of the envelope answer for the relative infectiousness/transmissibility of all the different variants of covid relative to the original one? Just curious to know how much more infectious each version's been than the last.
That’s my thinking. Can we see a trend pointing to next ones?
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
We need to get back to work. For productivity, to learn, for mental health, for team building, shared values and societal conditioning. Even someone near the end of their career like me can see this as plain as day.
We need to stop kidding ourselves.
In our staff survey the big issue was the commute. We have some numptys driving in from Perth, while mine is 6 minutes 20 seconds on my bike.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Agreed. It's perfectly obvious that the decision has been taken as part of the "save Big Dog" package. That doesn't mean it's not a reasonable decision, though like Richard N I'd prefer to have masks on crowded public transport for now. But it gets messy when political manouevres dictate policy.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his picture library or making a few more calls for footage yet again before then, ofcourse.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
One can only hope!
Not so long ago, the only enjoyment PB’ers had was watching Leon wetting himself about the upcoming alien invasion.
That our politicians were prepared to lay on this lavish spread for us, just to push Leon’s paranoia off of our screens, is hugely to their credit.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
As I said downthread, it is irrational to move before Gray reports. You would only do it if you thought: We want him out, what if there's a majority now to oust him but Gray is such an effective whitewash hostility fades and we lose our chance? But most of these people are against him because he's unpopular, not on principle, so effective whitewash and Bozo stays is a good outcome, so no motive to preempt it. Even if you do want him out on principle, it is likely that his position will be worse rather than better after Gray plus reaction to Gray plus further revelations from Dom and Reynolds and anyone else aggrieved by Gray.
Random question but is there any generally accepted back of the envelope answer for the relative infectiousness/transmissibility of all the different variants of covid relative to the original one? Just curious to know how much more infectious each version's been than the last.
Delta is about 5.0 R0, around 60% higher than Wuhan which was around 3.0, Omicron is maybe double again to as high as 10.0. Which makes it one of the highest basic reproduction rates going, around 13-14 are the highest numbers for any viruses. Combined with the short serial interval of about 4 days the net effect is that Omicron is probably the most transmissible virus seen in the modern era.
It's worth saying that there is a lot of uncertainty with such figures, and you will see all sorts of different numbers from various sources. Outbreaks under different conditions (demographic and environmental) will give different numbers, so studies from other countries will show some sometimes quite substantially different values.
Well, busy old day today. Hardly stopped running around for the last twelve hours with one thing and another.
Did I miss anything?
Apparently someone I have never heard of has changed his seat in the Commons. And David Davis is still an arse.
I've always quite liked David Davis. Very sound on civil liberties. And Dominic Cummings hates his guts and thinks he's vain and stupid, so he must be a pleasant, highly intelligent and modest sort of person.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
Yep, genuine gaslighting is not a particularly difficult psychological abuse concept to understand. I knew someone that it happened to over a number of years. They were an elderly couple where the wife wished to get rid of her husband (number 2). Over a protracted period she attempted to convince him he had dementia when he clearly didn't. Very unpleasant indeed and a term that should not be misused IMO.
That's absolutely horrendous.
Sadly, I think it is not that uncommon. Move things around, hide things, suggest that they really ought to go and see the doctor every time they genuinely forget something and continuously tell them they have been told something and they have forgotten it when in reality they were never told it in the first place. It is a particularly nasty practice carried out often on the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to it, sometimes by spouses and partners, and sometimes by other family members or supposed carers. It is particularly evil.
Well, busy old day today. Hardly stopped running around for the last twelve hours with one thing and another.
Did I miss anything?
Dickie Davis from the world of sport has shaved his moustache and doesn’t like Boris. The Corbynites are utterly furious that Labour looks like it might win.
It's not because the mayor knows everyone just starts getting alternative transport and if it went to court it would end up with all the same losses of terms of service and EULA cases.
Additionally, anyone who tries to enforce them has no legal basis to challenge anyone on why they may be exempt from masks, which is why mask wearing has never been enforced in the UK. People can simply say "I am exempt from this rule" and they have to accept it and move on.
It's an entirely pointless exercise to continue mandating masks and Sadiq is just trying to show that he's "responsible" but as we saw last time, people will naturally stop wearing them.
I agree with much of that, but the fact that it hasn't been properly enforced, and that there was this utterly ridiculous exemption on no basis, is the government's fault. One of many missteps.
I just don't see what you want to achieve with mask wearing. People who want to protect themselves can get higher grade masks if they want. Making those of us who can live with a small amount of risk wear shitty cloth masks that don't work isn't helping anyone.
You're still stuck in the default "must stop the virus" stage of this. I think that's the issue, once you accept that we can't stop it you'll realise that all of the NPIs have to go. The best we can do is reduce case severity, three doses of vaccine for the over 50s and two doses for the under 50s seems to do that very well. Everything else is window dressing.
Now that we have the vaccines and boosters largely done (although it's a pity that the programme seems to have stalled now), the stage we should be at now is not to stop the virus, which I agree is impossible in the medium term, but to slow it down to help the pressure on the NHS. Assuming we don't get hit by some new nasty surprise, in which case all bets would be off, we are talking a small number of weeks for this.
What evidence do you have to suggest that masks on the tube or any public transport would actually slow it down? The general studies into COVID transmission have all shown that the biggest R reductions come from school closures and WFH mandates. I think masks were rated as fairly negligible, the government's own report into them for masks in schools pointed this out as well and said they were entirely performative and a useful reminder to be careful or something similarly idiotic.
There's plenty of evidence. Google 'effect mask mandates' and you'll get lots of scientific studies.
You also have to look at the other side of the coin. Of all the measures a government can take, mask mandates on public transport and other key places are without any doubt the least expensive, the least disruptive, and have the least adverse effect on people's lives.
I agree mandating them is schools is probably not effective enough to justify the downside, which is why I haven't argued for that.
The key thing is start from the evidence and work towards the policy.
A lot of papers have been published on mask wearing. It doesn't necessarily follow that they show the kind of effect that justifies general mask mandates.
Insofar as I'm aware only one major study has ever been conducted into the efficacy of mask wearing against Covid-19 amongst the general population - the 2020 Danmask trial, which suggested that masking was weakly effective at best against even the original Wuhan strain. The rest of the mask studies are, variously, small in scale, methodologically flawed, unable to separate the effect of masking from other mitigations, irrelevant to community use (e.g. examinations of the use of medical grade masks in medical settings,) or are simply statistical analyses that bundle together groups of these deficient studies to create a larger sample size, and then draw dubious conclusions from the data.
Debunk these studies and you're left with various weak justifications - "they make frightened people feel safer," "they remind everyone there's an emergency on," "it's not that big a deal, it's only a mask" - none of which is sufficient excuse for bludgeoning people into wearing anything. Compulsory masking because "something must be done" should be rejected.
Which you have not done. Pre-Omicron, masks worked. Intra-Omicron, we aren't sure. There's your starter on efficacy. Now make arguments for the harm masks cause, weigh them against each other, and make a policy.
Pre-Omicron masks worked.
Did they work pre-March 2020.
The studies I've looked at have been about Covid, and before Omicron. I don't know of any reliable data on mask mandates versus Covid pre-March 2020, for one fairly obvious reason.
Generally, masks can prevent infectious transmission, though.
2 things. Early in pandemic, when masks were scarce, what was government policy towards masks and the effectiveness of masks?
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Early in the pandemic, public health policy was not to wear masks. I distinctly remember some people being concerned that masks would give a false sense of safety and they wanted to encourage social distancing and handwashing above all else. But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making. I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
Agreed. It's perfectly obvious that the decision has been taken as part of the "save Big Dog" package. That doesn't mean it's not a reasonable decision, though like Richard N I'd prefer to have masks on crowded public transport for now. But it gets messy when political manouevres dictate policy.
It does - although it was also notable that on Sunday, Starmer had to bat off various of Streeting’s comments that Sophie threw at him on her Sunday morning show. Streeting has been promoted exceptionally quickly and his inexperience sometimes shows.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
One can only hope!
Not so long ago, the only enjoyment PB’ers had was watching Leon wetting himself about the upcoming alien invasion.
That our politicians were prepared to lay on this lavish spread for us, just to push Leon’s paranoia off of our screens, is hugely to their credit.
If you want things to liven up a bit you just have to ask Mike to go away for a few days and leave TSE in charge.
This procedure works particularly well if TSE if also busy at work at the same time.
Random question but is there any generally accepted back of the envelope answer for the relative infectiousness/transmissibility of all the different variants of covid relative to the original one? Just curious to know how much more infectious each version's been than the last.
Delta is about 5.0 R0, around 60% higher than Wuhan which was around 3.0, Omicron is maybe double again to as high as 10.0. Which makes it one of the highest basic reproduction rates going, around 13-14 are the highest numbers for any viruses. Combined with the short serial interval of about 4 days the net effect is that Omicron is probably the most transmissible virus seen in the modern era.
It's worth saying that there is a lot of uncertainty with such figures, and you will see all sorts of different numbers from various sources. Outbreaks under different conditions (demographic and environmental) will give different numbers, so studies from other countries will show some sometimes quite substantially different values.
Thanks - accept the point about uncertainty but the numbers you quote are useful for context for me.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
As I said downthread, it is irrational to move before Gray reports. You would only do it if you thought: We want him out, what if there's a majority now to oust him but Gray is such an effective whitewash hostility fades and we lose our chance? But most of these people are against him because he's unpopular, not on principle, so effective whitewash and Bozo stays is a good outcome, so no motive to preempt it. Even if you do want him out on principle, it is likely that his position will be worse rather than better after Gray plus reaction to Gray plus further revelations from Dom and Reynolds and anyone else aggrieved by Gray.
Gray will be a whitewash. Because it is not possible to investigate this on the terms she has in the time she has. As @Cyclefree has pointed out several times far more cogently than I could.
Internal inquiries like this are used solely for killing press stories.
The catch is, I just don't see how such a whitewash can do anything other than inflame the situation as it stands. All that will do is further discredit the civil service who are after all the ones who have admitted to crimes on the grounds they thought they weren't crimes, the police for refusing to investigate and the government for being so useless.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
We need to get back to work. For productivity, to learn, for mental health, for team building, shared values and societal conditioning. Even someone near the end of their career like me can see this as plain as day.
We need to stop kidding ourselves.
That's true of some jobs, not true of others. Where I work, with mostly young staff, they virtually unanimous view is that they prefer working from home. I don't get the impression that they are zealous mask-wearers living in isolation, but they don't see the point of giving up 90 minutes a day trekking in to sit at a desk with a higher risk of infection. They don't, in general, get their social life from work, and I know some of them have taken up park runs and diverse hobbies for contact. But they mostly get social life where they live, which is generally a long way from work as it's so expensive round here.
Regardless of the pros and cons of masks, and despite the subject being really boring, I do find the discussion on here a bit one-sided.
Take London transport. The anti-maskers declare that they refuse to wear a mask, or won't use the tube, and therefore a return to normal will be delayed unless Khan lifts his ludicrous rules. But what they ignore is that there's another set of people, perhaps roughly the same size, who won't use the tube if people are not wearing masks, because they don't feel safe. It really doesn't matter if they're wrong - they may be older, still nervous about Covid, and noting that it's still leading to a fair few deaths. In brief, behavioural changes brought about by the lifting of all restrictions do not all flow in the same direction.
It actually speaks to a wider issue. We need proper education of the real risk. Everybody has become so transfixed by the daily updates where its currently at 200-300 deaths per day that this still causes a lot of worry in people, and that most people have totally lost sight of the actual real risk of covid versus everything else in the world.
I am not saying that's covid done, pandemic over, but I think this daily beaming of just the covid stats for 2 years has totally warped people perception of the covid versus cancer, heart attacks etc.
We really need to start educating the public that not only is COVID not going away but here it is in relation to lots of other things that people don't ever worry themselves on a daily basis about.
There has been all sorts of public polling where the public think the risks of being hospitalised are orders of magnitude different to reality.
I read recently that in Australia, on average, people rated your chances of death if you contracted covid as at about 33% (to be fair, I don't know how recent this was - but even if was April 2020 it's pretty shocking.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
That might not stop Cummings heading back to his library or making a few more calls for footage yet again, ofcourse.
Yes, but Cummings is not actually a significant figure for two reasons (1) he's obviously motivated by spite (2) he's so stupid he hardly knows what he's done himself from day to day and (3) he's a fluent, compulsive, habitual and well-known liar.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
But look how he's able to set the agenda. On Monday the headlines were all about big dog, sending migrants to Lesotho and seeing the end of the BBC, and the focus from last week had been on letting down the Queen, and breaking the rules.
In a flash with his tweet on Monday, Cummings was not only able to wipe Big Dog's plans off the headlines, but also be the main influence in changing the newspapers' interest from rule-breaking, to lying about rule-breaking. He may be transparently motivated by spite, I agree - as well as, in his mind, the crucial inadequacy of Johnson - but he's certainly played a huge influence in directing the way things are going.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
If 54 letters are not in by now - and I'm pretty sure we'll know by tomorrow morning if they were - he's probably safe to the end of the week.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
They’re waiting for Gray now - both the waverers, to see what she will bring, and the zealots, because they know the chances of a successful VONC are higher once the crutch of waiting for Gray is whipped away.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
I have really no answer to that but I very much doubt that will be the course of Boris career
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Every time it looks like a quiet end to the week, or a week or two of respite..well, you know what's coming by now. The trailer continues.
One can only hope!
Not so long ago, the only enjoyment PB’ers had was watching Leon wetting himself about the upcoming alien invasion.
That our politicians were prepared to lay on this lavish spread for us, just to push Leon’s paranoia off of our screens, is hugely to their credit.
He will be telling you it is the aliens that are behind it all. What else can he do? He has been one of the major apologists for The Clown on PB over the last few years. If it isn't the aliens then it must be that Johnson is actually shit and that he, the mighty Leon (aka _____) is as poor a judge of character as he is at writing high quality literature.
Takeaway from that is, Old Lady has discretion over timing of vote. I hadn't understood that, thought he was tied to a timetable. So get letters, delay vote till post Gray is on the cards.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Well I remember the third weekend in May, which was, I think, when we were given permission to leave our immediate area. I took my daughters for a walk in the Peak District. (I've just looked it up - it was on the 16th May). Driving anywhere felt like a real novelty. People were friendly, but wary, giving each other a very wide berth. It wasn't the height of lockdown, but we were pretty restricted.
Looking back through those photos from April and May 2020 makes me want to weep with rage: the weird, filmic almost unnatural quality of the light creating a strange juxtaposition to the world falling apart, my children's busy lives shrinking and shrinking away. I suspect a lot of people feel a powerful emotional response when they consider that time in particular. Which is why Boris is the target of such emotional fury. (Of course, some already felt this way about him following Brexit.)
Had lunch today with a friend I hadn't seen for some time - potted shrimp then supreme of guinea fowl if you're wondering - and he started off saying how nice lockdown was, time with the family, open spaces, exercise, etc.
I asked him about the online schooling and his children (he has two). His face changed instantly. Terrible, really horrible, an awful time, youngest definitely set back in his education, etc.
It's easy to forget, even if you were affected, how for many people it was a pretty horrific time.
The worst memory - worse than jovially trying to get through each day with three children under ten without having anything at all to do, anyone to see, anywhere beyond walking distance to go, even the swings in the park taken away; worse than trying to educate them and keep them active and at the same time trying to do some sort of job - so bad that I have basically repressed it, with it coming as a shock whenever it pops unbidden into my mind, as just now, when looking at photos from May 2020 - was the feeling on waking every single day: the pleasant 20 to 30 seconds of waking up followed by the sudden feeling of dread and despair and hopelessness in the stomach as I remembered what was going on in the world, that today would be just like yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that... the feeling that didn't truly go away until the 20 to 30 seconds before drifting off to sleep. That didn't really stop happening until I was persuaded to go to a doctor in October and take some antidepressants. Just in time for lockdown 2. So while rationally I do not care that Boris and his mates had some after work drinks, emotionally I want to punch him in the face again and again and again. It's not because I think he is evil, nor incompetent (his competence isn't his greatest asset, but people more competent than him were queueing up to demand more lockdown); it's that the suffering of 2020 provokes a visceral emotional response and needs someone to blame. I need a scapegoat.
However, my keenness that the Conservative Party defenestrate him is largely rational. Rishi, or Liz, or Penny, or Jeremy would almost certainly do a better job. His moment has passed.
Sorry if this is personal - but was there follow up after the antidepressants?
The reason I ask, is a good friend, long ago, got given pills for far too long, rather than getting the help they needed after the pills had stabilised the initial situation.
That, with respect, is a somewhat dated and discredited model (that pills are the initial sticking plaster, but just a stopgap till you start working on your ishoos.) If you find a med that works for you, your best option can be to stick with it indefinitely or run the risk of a relapse: talking therapies are only about as effective as meds.
Horses for courses of course and if this is an isolated episode for @cookie brought on by specific and we hope not-to-be-repeated circumstances, you could be right in this instance.
I got to talk through my ishoos as well. I hated it. 45 minutes of talking about myself. Worse than an appraisal. And it wasn't great - it was largely geared to people who were depressed due to feelings of self worth, rather than being depressed because there was a global pandemic on and their lives were horribly restricted with little apparent prospect of the world changing. And the therapist - who I'm sure meant well - revealed, just in the course of her conversation, meant no doubt to put me at ease - that she had fairly fundamentally different views about certain aspects of pandemic management to me (such as the importance of always wearing facemasks). Which made for a fairly circumspect conversation from my point of view thereafter. BUT - she did point me in the direction of some great advice for managing your own mood. The best single piece of advice I could give anyone in this boat is to google 'get self help'. One thing I took from it was the need for 'flow' - the calmness and peace which comes from having a specific and absorbing task to focus on. The tablets helped in the short term, but my long term recovery was as much down to my rediscovery of sudoku.
Hopefully reading and contributing to PB has helped as well.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
After he lost the 2010 election. There was no sign of movement in No.10 until Cameron & Clegg rammed home the point... It took the best part of a week...
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Going on the last month, it is. The jokers in the pack are the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia, and probably in that order.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
After he lost the 2010 election. There was no sign of movement in No.10 until Cameron & Clegg rammed home the point... It took the best part of a week...
Four days, I think, but he really should have gone to the palace on the Friday morning and told HMQ to send for Dave.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
After he lost the 2010 election. There was no sign of movement in No.10 until Cameron & Clegg rammed home the point... It took the best part of a week...
Perfectly proper in the circumstances. A duty even.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Well I remember the third weekend in May, which was, I think, when we were given permission to leave our immediate area. I took my daughters for a walk in the Peak District. (I've just looked it up - it was on the 16th May). Driving anywhere felt like a real novelty. People were friendly, but wary, giving each other a very wide berth. It wasn't the height of lockdown, but we were pretty restricted.
Looking back through those photos from April and May 2020 makes me want to weep with rage: the weird, filmic almost unnatural quality of the light creating a strange juxtaposition to the world falling apart, my children's busy lives shrinking and shrinking away. I suspect a lot of people feel a powerful emotional response when they consider that time in particular. Which is why Boris is the target of such emotional fury. (Of course, some already felt this way about him following Brexit.)
Had lunch today with a friend I hadn't seen for some time - potted shrimp then supreme of guinea fowl if you're wondering - and he started off saying how nice lockdown was, time with the family, open spaces, exercise, etc.
I asked him about the online schooling and his children (he has two). His face changed instantly. Terrible, really horrible, an awful time, youngest definitely set back in his education, etc.
It's easy to forget, even if you were affected, how for many people it was a pretty horrific time.
The worst memory - worse than jovially trying to get through each day with three children under ten without having anything at all to do, anyone to see, anywhere beyond walking distance to go, even the swings in the park taken away; worse than trying to educate them and keep them active and at the same time trying to do some sort of job - so bad that I have basically repressed it, with it coming as a shock whenever it pops unbidden into my mind, as just now, when looking at photos from May 2020 - was the feeling on waking every single day: the pleasant 20 to 30 seconds of waking up followed by the sudden feeling of dread and despair and hopelessness in the stomach as I remembered what was going on in the world, that today would be just like yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that... the feeling that didn't truly go away until the 20 to 30 seconds before drifting off to sleep. That didn't really stop happening until I was persuaded to go to a doctor in October and take some antidepressants. Just in time for lockdown 2. So while rationally I do not care that Boris and his mates had some after work drinks, emotionally I want to punch him in the face again and again and again. It's not because I think he is evil, nor incompetent (his competence isn't his greatest asset, but people more competent than him were queueing up to demand more lockdown); it's that the suffering of 2020 provokes a visceral emotional response and needs someone to blame. I need a scapegoat.
However, my keenness that the Conservative Party defenestrate him is largely rational. Rishi, or Liz, or Penny, or Jeremy would almost certainly do a better job. His moment has passed.
Sorry if this is personal - but was there follow up after the antidepressants?
The reason I ask, is a good friend, long ago, got given pills for far too long, rather than getting the help they needed after the pills had stabilised the initial situation.
No there wasn't. But nor did I pursue it myself. I was advised to take them for six months and then arrange a review. At first, I was counting down the hours until I could take the next one. They aren't supposed to work instantly, but they did for me. For the first couple of weeks I felt fine for about 14 hours a day. To start with it felt like I needed to up the dose, but I resisted the temptation - knowing I would feel well again in a few hours meant I could do it. And gradually I went from coping for 12 hours a day to coping for 16, to 24, to longer than 24. I didn't need the next tablet so urgently. And almost by accident I cut down to one every two days, then one every three days. After about 5 months I didn't take any more.
They worked for me, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to go back on them. The best thing I got from them was the experience that how I was feeling was just a chemical imbalance in my brain. Knowing that - actually having that demonstrated to me physically - made depression less depressing.
I would suggest, humbly, that you make a follow up. Get an appointment. It will take forever on the NHS, I know, but it will be worth it.
Mental health is just... health. It is remarkable what can be done and fixed by doctors these days. As long as people go and see the doctors!
Totally agree with this, and sympathies to Cookie. Also, any *change* in medication needs regular follow-upsin person. I have a friend who was switched from classic anti-depressants (which only partly dealt with her issues but she was able to work and enjoy life) to Prozac by an enthusiastic GP. It didn't suit her and she plunged downhill, lost her job, her social life and her ability to function. The GP periodically said cheerily, when she consulted him by phone, that he felt sure it'd get better. After several months he finally visited her and recommended switching back to the previous medication - by which time she was almost hopelessly lost and could barely speak. She took years to recover. I'm not at all anti-medicine. But it needs to be combined with proiper monitoring.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
After he lost the 2010 election. There was no sign of movement in No.10 until Cameron & Clegg rammed home the point... It took the best part of a week...
To be fair to Brown, he was very badly advised by the then cabinet Secretary, who had no understanding of the constitutional situation or the precedents set by Baldwin and Heath.
Equally, as Brown himself was aware of them (being a political historian, not a less than successful economist like O'Donnell) he should have told O'Donnell to do one about 120 hours before he finally did.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
Yes, he acted entirely properly. He was, until Boris, the worst PM in at least half a century, but on that particular point the criticisms of him are completely unjustified.
I just watched that. I have never heard of him. What an irritating moron.
On the train today x2. First this morning = masks: 100% (apart from me who can make a Starbucks [apols] coffee last over an hour).
This afternoon = 50%. mask wearing.
Just the hint that they will no longer be mandated has pre-empted action from people.
Yes, I mused earlier that I thought that that might happen. Lame duck law now – who is going to enforce a law that expires at midnight tomorrow week?
Certainly works for me. I walked into my dry cleaners this arvo and thought: Fuck it, why wear a mask? They are going anyway
My previously masked dry cleaning guys clearly felt the same. Usually they wear masks. Not today
I am so impressed with the on the ground work you do.You've told us so many times that no one at all in your area is wearing masks any more, and yet you still manage to find someone who has _only_just_ stopped wearing one. You must be having to go miles to find them by now.
I think Leon has been fairly clear that people in London are wearing them, performatively, in shops, then cheerfully discarding them where they are not required. Seeing people not wearing them where they ARE required is new news.
The only shop where I can be consistently sure of being in a majority of non-maskers round here is One Stop.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I think the word "performative" is one of the words of the pandemic. I don't think I recall ever seeing it until around a year ago. Now, its usage is abundant and terribly fashionable.
Very often by the same people who blather on about the what gaslighting means and how it isn't really a thing. PB is rich in students of human behaviour, often C- students but students nevertheless.
It's a very specific thing, you change the curtains from green to blue and your spouse says Why the blue curtains and you say They've been blue ever since we've been here, you are going mad. It isn't just lying to people.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
Yes, he acted entirely properly. He was, until Boris, the worst PM in at least half a century, but on that particular point the criticisms of him are completely unjustified.
No,they were justified. A government that even when teamed up with another party falls short of the leading party and its key ally in terms of seats cannot possibly get a Queen's speech through.
Ironically Brown's own acolytes Miliband and Balls demonstrated this by briefing in 2010 that under the Cabinet manual if the Tories had fewer than 290 seats they would have to quit Downing Street.
Kettle: Boris Johnson’s fall is not yet a fact. But it grows more likely by the hour. No leader can indefinitely survive these levels of assault.
To kick a prime minister out in a vote of no confidence is a very big call indeed. It would be a damning verdict on Johnson personally and on his “great man” view of history and himself. He might not hang around in the Commons, triggering a very losable byelection in Uxbridge.
Much will also rest on the contest’s length and timing. The 2019 contest took nearly two months before Johnson was confirmed winner. If this one does the same, the candidates may have to juggle their responses to anything from a new Covid variant to the energy price rise, trying to sort the Northern Ireland protocol before the May elections, or a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sunak is still probably the best bet in this race. But do not believe anyone who claims they know for certain where all this is leading. They don’t.
Perhaps has already been mention on this looooooooooooong threat -
Worth noting in passing, that young Winston Churchill famously crossed the aisle in 1904 without by-election.
At next general election, the 1906 Liberal landslide, he also switched seats, forsaking Oldham (2-seat highly marginal, close split decision when WSC first elected in 1900, Libs took both seats handily in 1906) in favor of North West Manchester. Selected to maximize national impact of Liberal free-trade message, which Churchill did splendidly, winning a famous victory - and even more famously propelling himself straight into Campbell-Bannerman's Liberal government.
It is a bit disappointing that Brady isn't able to tell us how many letters there are. We could set up one of those "thermometer" charts that people use when they are fundraising which would be fun.
Thinking about it, it could be a good fundraiser for the Tories. For a couple of grand you get to sign an NDA and then you are allowed a glimpse of how close Bozo is to the chop. It would be, as he might say, "great".
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
BBC Scotland still think that Brown’s an electoral asset! 😂
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible?
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
I have really no answer to that but I very much doubt that will be the course of Boris career
Quite. The fundamentals of the situation are, firstly, that Boris Johnson has been thoroughly discredited amongst sections of the electorate that previously liked him (or were at least willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for a time,) and they're not likely to be won over; and, secondly, that the prospect of Prime Minister Starmer doesn't repel or scare the wotsit out of many people, in the way that the thought of Prime Minister Corbyn did.
I doubt that the Tories will be so suicidal as to go into another GE campaign with him in charge; if they did then they certainly wouldn't win it. Anything short of a win and they're out of power: none of the other parties in the Commons will prop them up.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
Yes, he acted entirely properly. He was, until Boris, the worst PM in at least half a century, but on that particular point the criticisms of him are completely unjustified.
It was ridiculous criticism at the time. And it still is.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
She will undoubtedly have learned a lot from this wretched experience that could be useful for any potential employer.
I've been looking back at posters' comments on the now infamous 20th May 2020.
This one from the much-missed @Black_Rook gives some context from that day:
"Recently home from work and just catching up on the news of zero new Covid diagnoses in London in a 24-hour period.
It is also more than a week since Boris Johnson dumped the Stay Home message and started encouraging people to go back to work. One is therefore entitled to wonder what has happened to the much-feared disease spike caused by passengers allegedly cramming back into buses and the Tube, going back into workplaces, and spending as much time as they please enjoying sunny parks. Indeed, if this continues to fail to materialise for very much longer then it'll be the best news since this whole miserable saga began."
According to the media (speaking today) we were in the height of lockdown back then.
The "height of lockdown" nonsense for May 20 is typical of our journalists. Ten of thousands of people went to the beach that day,
Well I remember the third weekend in May, which was, I think, when we were given permission to leave our immediate area. I took my daughters for a walk in the Peak District. (I've just looked it up - it was on the 16th May). Driving anywhere felt like a real novelty. People were friendly, but wary, giving each other a very wide berth. It wasn't the height of lockdown, but we were pretty restricted.
Looking back through those photos from April and May 2020 makes me want to weep with rage: the weird, filmic almost unnatural quality of the light creating a strange juxtaposition to the world falling apart, my children's busy lives shrinking and shrinking away. I suspect a lot of people feel a powerful emotional response when they consider that time in particular. Which is why Boris is the target of such emotional fury. (Of course, some already felt this way about him following Brexit.)
Had lunch today with a friend I hadn't seen for some time - potted shrimp then supreme of guinea fowl if you're wondering - and he started off saying how nice lockdown was, time with the family, open spaces, exercise, etc.
I asked him about the online schooling and his children (he has two). His face changed instantly. Terrible, really horrible, an awful time, youngest definitely set back in his education, etc.
It's easy to forget, even if you were affected, how for many people it was a pretty horrific time.
The worst memory - worse than jovially trying to get through each day with three children under ten without having anything at all to do, anyone to see, anywhere beyond walking distance to go, even the swings in the park taken away; worse than trying to educate them and keep them active and at the same time trying to do some sort of job - so bad that I have basically repressed it, with it coming as a shock whenever it pops unbidden into my mind, as just now, when looking at photos from May 2020 - was the feeling on waking every single day: the pleasant 20 to 30 seconds of waking up followed by the sudden feeling of dread and despair and hopelessness in the stomach as I remembered what was going on in the world, that today would be just like yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that... the feeling that didn't truly go away until the 20 to 30 seconds before drifting off to sleep. That didn't really stop happening until I was persuaded to go to a doctor in October and take some antidepressants. Just in time for lockdown 2. So while rationally I do not care that Boris and his mates had some after work drinks, emotionally I want to punch him in the face again and again and again. It's not because I think he is evil, nor incompetent (his competence isn't his greatest asset, but people more competent than him were queueing up to demand more lockdown); it's that the suffering of 2020 provokes a visceral emotional response and needs someone to blame. I need a scapegoat.
However, my keenness that the Conservative Party defenestrate him is largely rational. Rishi, or Liz, or Penny, or Jeremy would almost certainly do a better job. His moment has passed.
Sorry if this is personal - but was there follow up after the antidepressants?
The reason I ask, is a good friend, long ago, got given pills for far too long, rather than getting the help they needed after the pills had stabilised the initial situation.
No there wasn't. But nor did I pursue it myself. I was advised to take them for six months and then arrange a review. At first, I was counting down the hours until I could take the next one. They aren't supposed to work instantly, but they did for me. For the first couple of weeks I felt fine for about 14 hours a day. To start with it felt like I needed to up the dose, but I resisted the temptation - knowing I would feel well again in a few hours meant I could do it. And gradually I went from coping for 12 hours a day to coping for 16, to 24, to longer than 24. I didn't need the next tablet so urgently. And almost by accident I cut down to one every two days, then one every three days. After about 5 months I didn't take any more.
They worked for me, but I wouldn't be in a hurry to go back on them. The best thing I got from them was the experience that how I was feeling was just a chemical imbalance in my brain. Knowing that - actually having that demonstrated to me physically - made depression less depressing.
I would suggest, humbly, that you make a follow up. Get an appointment. It will take forever on the NHS, I know, but it will be worth it.
Mental health is just... health. It is remarkable what can be done and fixed by doctors these days. As long as people go and see the doctors!
Totally agree with this, and sympathies to Cookie. Also, any *change* in medication needs regular follow-upsin person. I have a friend who was switched from classic anti-depressants (which only partly dealt with her issues but she was able to work and enjoy life) to Prozac by an enthusiastic GP. It didn't suit her and she plunged downhill, lost her job, her social life and her ability to function. The GP periodically said cheerily, when she consulted him by phone, that he felt sure it'd get better. After several months he finally visited her and recommended switching back to the previous medication - by which time she was almost hopelessly lost and could barely speak. She took years to recover. I'm not at all anti-medicine. But it needs to be combined with proiper monitoring.
GPs just aren't very good at this. I am on high dosages of drugs which are fine with proper psychiatrists, but when random GPs learn about them they mutter about reporting my doctor to the GMC
Top tip: you can go and see a proper private psychiatrist for about £250 and 150 for follow ups, which is probably less than you spend on servicing your car, and gets you seen in a month not a year
Important qualification to top tip: If you disclose depression to travel insurers they tend to ask Have you been referred to a psychiatrist in the last 2 years, and refuse cover if you say yes. My approach to this is to assume that self-referrals are implicitly not included in the question...
It doesn't take much; she says that vigorous walking (100 steps a minute or more) is often enough -- and I can say that that works for me. And she has backed up her arguments with descriptions of research findings.
I think anyone who has suffered from depression should search for at least a few of her columns of the subject.
(In her latest column in yesterday's newspaper, she describes a Swedish study that found that participants in Sweden's Vasaloppet had significantly lower levels of anxiety, too. Except, oddly enough, for the top female performers.)
Works for me, I think.
During the miserable, dark days of lockdown 3(?) I took up running. At first just 2 or 3km, then 5km, then 7km, now 8 or more.
Every two days, which gives a day’s recovery.
It really regulates my mood, which tends - I confess - to saturnine.
Plus, I lost 25kg in 2021, by combining the above regime with not very strict intermittent fasting (I skip breakfast and try not to eat after 7pm).
I’m healthier than I’ve been for years, and happier besides.
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
I'm grateful that I got 4 years of employment in before Covid hit. Made some very close friendships in that period and turned into the, ahem, model professional I am now by copying the behaviour of my seniors.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
We need to get back to work. For productivity, to learn, for mental health, for team building, shared values and societal conditioning. Even someone near the end of their career like me can see this as plain as day.
We need to stop kidding ourselves.
That's true of some jobs, not true of others. Where I work, with mostly young staff, they virtually unanimous view is that they prefer working from home. I don't get the impression that they are zealous mask-wearers living in isolation, but they don't see the point of giving up 90 minutes a day trekking in to sit at a desk with a higher risk of infection. They don't, in general, get their social life from work, and I know some of them have taken up park runs and diverse hobbies for contact. But they mostly get social life where they live, which is generally a long way from work as it's so expensive round here.
Rather different in cities, perhaps?
It's an interesting one.
We've hired a bunch of (young) data scientists in Kentucky. They're earning national US wages, paying Kentucky prices for housing, and couldn't be happier to work from home.
By contrast, people who are based in LA on the same salary are in house shares, and would prefer to go to an office, over Zooming from their bedroom.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
Yes, he acted entirely properly. He was, until Boris, the worst PM in at least half a century, but on that particular point the criticisms of him are completely unjustified.
It was ridiculous criticism at the time. And it still is.
So was Baldwin wrong to resign in 1929? Should he have stayed until Lloyd George and MacDonald had agreed a coalition? Even though he had lost 130 seats and Lloyd George had said he wouldn't work with the Tories again?
Kettle: Boris Johnson’s fall is not yet a fact. But it grows more likely by the hour. No leader can indefinitely survive these levels of assault.
To kick a prime minister out in a vote of no confidence is a very big call indeed. It would be a damning verdict on Johnson personally and on his “great man” view of history and himself. He might not hang around in the Commons, triggering a very losable byelection in Uxbridge.
Much will also rest on the contest’s length and timing. The 2019 contest took nearly two months before Johnson was confirmed winner. If this one does the same, the candidates may have to juggle their responses to anything from a new Covid variant to the energy price rise, trying to sort the Northern Ireland protocol before the May elections, or a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sunak is still probably the best bet in this race. But do not believe anyone who claims they know for certain where all this is leading. They don’t.
So Kettle says no-one knows how this plot is going to unfold but that it looks bad for Boris. Kettle calling the Plot Black?
My daughter has been working for a public body and had the chance of a traineeship with them. She asked about working from home. Oh yes came the enthusiastic response you will never need to come into the office. And your training course ? Oh that will all be online too.
She now has a traineeship with a firm where you go to work and learn from those about you. She hands her notice in tomorrow.
The people in the public body are really nice. But they are generally middle aged or with young children. They simply cannot fathom how horrendous a prospect WFH is to someone starting out with a 1 bedroom flat looking for mates and, indeed, a mate.
Daughter was discussing with me what she will do next after the lease comes to an end in 8 weeks. She has an absolute horror of having a job stuck in the spare room behind a screen all day not interacting with people - or only via Zoom. She likes to be up and doing, out and about, creating stuff, talking and interacting with people and being active. I absolutely understand and, indeed, share this. Working with my team and meeting people - even in the middle of a crisis - was simply one of the best things about my job.
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
There is, sadly, going to be a lot of businesses who have ended up in the same place as your daughter. Some of these will be viable, especially as the restrictions are lifted. She should look for something that she can make a better job of than the previous owners did and see if she can pick up a bargain.
She wants a break from hospitality as it is not really compatible with a social / romantic life, which is what she wants, understandably, after the last 2 years. So she is looking for something which gives her something new to learn, uses her undoubted skills - she really would be an asset to any business - and does not leave her stuck at home behind a screen seeing nobody.
So a quiet end to this week, just the fallout from the defection and Davis to play through.
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
Fair summary
Johnson is safe Big G. I thought he was lamentable at PMQs and Starmer very good, but what do I know?
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It could be easy to get all over excited at height of a scandal, but it’s only how it’s really cut through in long term that matters, as it can burn itself out and politicians and parties recover again?
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Yes. Partygate is over. Johnson like the Six Million Dollar Man will return faster and stronger.
Ms Gray will conclude; Johnson didn't know it was a party and no one told him it was. There has been a Civil Service drinking culture in No 10, but Johnson was unaware of this.
Lots of Civil Servants will be sacked and alcohol at work will be banned, except in the private areas including Johnson's office
If we don't like Johnson's fiefdom, perhaps we should consider leaving the country.
I see some on here are still predicting Boris's departure. He will be like Gordon Brown and have to have his fingers prised from the PrimeMinisterial desk.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
When did Brown have to have his fingers prised from the desk?
May 2010 when he thought he could remain as PM (with Lib-Dem support) despite losing 80 seats?
He did his constitutional duty, which was to remain as PM and until an alternative who could command the House was found.
He was putting out "feelers" to stay in power.
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible.
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I still don't see the problem. He explored the possibility of staying on, and he waited until it was clear that was not possible before going. As I recall there was gameplaying by the LDs who did briefly meet with Lab, presumably as part of putting the pressure on the Tories.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
Comments
Also contra the assertion that it's the lockdown busybodies ramming their views down people's throats, on here afaics it's the Covid libertarians who are most often in finger prodding mode, demanding justifications for why The Man is oppressing them (despite in many cases having voted for The Man).
I hated it. 45 minutes of talking about myself. Worse than an appraisal.
And it wasn't great - it was largely geared to people who were depressed due to feelings of self worth, rather than being depressed because there was a global pandemic on and their lives were horribly restricted with little apparent prospect of the world changing.
And the therapist - who I'm sure meant well - revealed, just in the course of her conversation, meant no doubt to put me at ease - that she had fairly fundamentally different views about certain aspects of pandemic management to me (such as the importance of always wearing facemasks). Which made for a fairly circumspect conversation from my point of view thereafter.
BUT - she did point me in the direction of some great advice for managing your own mood. The best single piece of advice I could give anyone in this boat is to google 'get self help'.
One thing I took from it was the need for 'flow' - the calmness and peace which comes from having a specific and absorbing task to focus on. The tablets helped in the short term, but my long term recovery was as much down to my rediscovery of sudoku.
It doesn't take much; she says that vigorous walking (100 steps a minute or more) is often enough -- and I can say that that works for me. And she has backed up her arguments with descriptions of research findings.
I think anyone who has suffered from depression should search for at least a few of her columns of the subject.
(In her latest column in yesterday's newspaper, she describes a Swedish study that found that participants in Sweden's Vasaloppet had significantly lower levels of anxiety, too. Except, oddly enough, for the top female performers.)
This phenomenon may be because of a British tendency towards political theatricality combining with the Tories' underlying lust and laser-like focus for power, creating slightly absurd effects.
I've made no new friends for two years. I find that very sad and my big challenge this year is to join a running club or something and get socialising again.
Mental health is just... health. It is remarkable what can be done and fixed by doctors these days. As long as people go and see the doctors!
We need to stop kidding ourselves.
More importantly, are we grasping at pandemic over because Omicron has been kittenish compared to more catty Delta? Can we predict with any certainty the next Covid variant won’t go back to attacking lungs or even be less virulent than Omicron?
Should we even sweep it together as covid now, rather than think it a series of variants based on covid? For example, someone unvaxxed says I had covid and it was little more than a touch of cold, but you were a wuss to be hospitalised with it - when the first had omicron, the second victim had it early in pandemic.
Is Omicron a bit more mild? Then there is a danger it plays into the wrong thinking of Covid?
Did I miss anything?
So she is in a quandary about what to do next. She has an entrepreneur's mindset. She is good at spotting gaps in a market and coming up with ideas.
At the same time she wants to have a social life and meet a mate etc. WFH and being stuck behind screens is not the way to do that. This trend to doing everything via computers with little personal interaction is awful for those who want to be active and interactive and creative and be with people.
I hope she finds something suitable. If anyone has any bright ideas please share!
Then Gray. Then the reaction to Gray - the clown sacking half his staff. Then we’ll see if any of those staff decide not to go quietly. Then the political and public opinion reaction to Gray. The letters and VONC, if the 54 arrive. And (probably that day), Norman’s final revelation.
And it will not happen until the Sir Graham Brady fires the starting pistol. And when will that happen?
Remember that in spite of all their noise and huffing and puffing and threats of letters going in, Tory MPs are safe for at least a couple more years, so why rock the boat today?
I do wonder how many letters Mr Brady has. If the press reports were accurate he would have about 314 by now...
But none of this matters for my overall point, which is that there are reliable studies out there that form an input to our policy decisions. We shouldn't dismiss or ignore that evidence on the basis of the conclusion we want to reach. That's bad policy making.
I'm not arguing for a different conclusion than those who say we shouldn't mandate masks, but I am arguing that they shouldn't dismiss contrary evidence. The case is strong enough on its own to say "masks work but we shouldn't mandate them because [reasons]". I have more respect (and agree with) those who play that hand than those who pretend adopt an anti-science standpoint to get to their conclusion.
And every Tory MP should forfeit their seats for being spineless cowards.
Self-driving cars on the roads: 5 years away
Old Lady with enough letters for VONC: 2 days away
Jam: tomorrow
Not so long ago, the only enjoyment PB’ers had was watching Leon wetting himself about the upcoming alien invasion.
That our politicians were prepared to lay on this lavish spread for us, just to push Leon’s paranoia off of our screens, is hugely to their credit.
He is very important in the echoing caverns of his own empty skull. Not in reality.
What will bring Johnson down isn't Cummings, or even the fact he misled the House (although it should, but he's done it before and survived) it is simply that his defence was, 'I'm so incompetent I didn't know what my own rules are or what was literally going on in my back garden while I was standing in it.'
And the funny part is, it may even be true. Because he's so useless.
That's what's destroying him.
I was hearing analysis on R4 PM that I got this the wrong way around and Johnson was sublime today.
Big errors from David Davis and the defector today. HYUFD had this nailed from the start.
Johnson could be here for another decade or so. On a downer tonight!
It's worth saying that there is a lot of uncertainty with such figures, and you will see all sorts of different numbers from various sources. Outbreaks under different conditions (demographic and environmental) will give different numbers, so studies from other countries will show some sometimes quite substantially different values.
Woof!
This procedure works particularly well if TSE if also busy at work at the same time.
Internal inquiries like this are used solely for killing press stories.
The catch is, I just don't see how such a whitewash can do anything other than inflame the situation as it stands. All that will do is further discredit the civil service who are after all the ones who have admitted to crimes on the grounds they thought they weren't crimes, the police for refusing to investigate and the government for being so useless.
Rather different in cities, perhaps?
In a flash with his tweet on Monday, Cummings was not only able to wipe Big Dog's plans off the headlines, but also be the main influence in changing the newspapers' interest from rule-breaking, to lying about rule-breaking. He may be transparently motivated by spite, I agree - as well as, in his mind, the crucial inadequacy of Johnson - but he's certainly played a huge influence in directing the way things are going.
It is noticeable without Cummings and Norman doing their weekly double act, the polls were quickly coming back together in new year despite the partygate and other gates leading to Shropshire North and couple of 8% Labour leads before Christmas. 3rd Jan RWS had Boris Tories back to only 3 behind, polling 6-9th yougov and comres had it already down to 4. Mike Smithson who knows a thing or two was predicting Conservative polls leads.
Truth is, We don’t know how much real permanent cut through there has been. A month without this and largely favourable Boris fight back, where will the polls be? We don’t know. But we do know without Cummings and Norman’s support, the rest of the media just can’t sustain it on their own.
Is all this fair to say?
Pass the nuts.
Equally, as Brown himself was aware of them (being a political historian, not a less than successful economist like O'Donnell) he should have told O'Donnell to do one about 120 hours before he finally did.
Ironically Brown's own acolytes Miliband and Balls demonstrated this by briefing in 2010 that under the Cabinet manual if the Tories had fewer than 290 seats they would have to quit Downing Street.
To kick a prime minister out in a vote of no confidence is a very big call indeed. It would be a damning verdict on Johnson personally and on his “great man” view of history and himself. He might not hang around in the Commons, triggering a very losable byelection in Uxbridge.
Much will also rest on the contest’s length and timing. The 2019 contest took nearly two months before Johnson was confirmed winner. If this one does the same, the candidates may have to juggle their responses to anything from a new Covid variant to the energy price rise, trying to sort the Northern Ireland protocol before the May elections, or a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sunak is still probably the best bet in this race. But do not believe anyone who claims they know for certain where all this is leading. They don’t.
Worth noting in passing, that young Winston Churchill famously crossed the aisle in 1904 without by-election.
At next general election, the 1906 Liberal landslide, he also switched seats, forsaking Oldham (2-seat highly marginal, close split decision when WSC first elected in 1900, Libs took both seats handily in 1906) in favor of North West Manchester. Selected to maximize national impact of Liberal free-trade message, which Churchill did splendidly, winning a famous victory - and even more famously propelling himself straight into Campbell-Bannerman's Liberal government.
Thinking about it, it could be a good fundraiser for the Tories. For a couple of grand you get to sign an NDA and then you are allowed a glimpse of how close Bozo is to the chop. It would be, as he might say, "great".
Mandy had to sit him down and tell his it was all over? Clegg had to explicitly tell him a deal with the Lib-Dems wasn't going to be possible?
He did everything he could to cling on short of declaring squatters rights lol!
I doubt that the Tories will be so suicidal as to go into another GE campaign with him in charge; if they did then they certainly wouldn't win it. Anything short of a win and they're out of power: none of the other parties in the Commons will prop them up.
It was ridiculous criticism at the time. And it still is.
Top tip: you can go and see a proper private psychiatrist for about £250 and 150 for follow ups, which is probably less than you spend on servicing your car, and gets you seen in a month not a year
Important qualification to top tip: If you disclose depression to travel insurers they tend to ask Have you been referred to a psychiatrist in the last 2 years, and refuse cover if you say yes. My approach to this is to assume that self-referrals are implicitly not included in the question...
During the miserable, dark days of lockdown 3(?) I took up running. At first just 2 or 3km, then 5km, then 7km, now 8 or more.
Every two days, which gives a day’s recovery.
It really regulates my mood, which tends - I confess - to saturnine.
Plus, I lost 25kg in 2021, by combining the above regime with not very strict intermittent fasting (I skip breakfast and try not to eat after 7pm).
I’m healthier than I’ve been for years, and happier besides.
We've hired a bunch of (young) data scientists in Kentucky. They're earning national US wages, paying Kentucky prices for housing, and couldn't be happier to work from home.
By contrast, people who are based in LA on the same salary are in house shares, and would prefer to go to an office, over Zooming from their bedroom.
Ms Gray will conclude; Johnson didn't know it was a party and no one told him it was. There has been a Civil Service drinking culture in No 10, but Johnson was unaware of this.
Lots of Civil Servants will be sacked and alcohol at work will be banned, except in the private areas including Johnson's office
If we don't like Johnson's fiefdom, perhaps we should consider leaving the country.
Regardless, all I see in these accusations is that it while was an improbable path to staying on, the other side had not locked down a deal, and once they had Brown accepted that immediately. I just don't see what was so terrible about that.
Keir may be improving, but he’s still not that effective. Boris stonewalled disgracefully, but managed to project boosterish confidence. Keir didn’t really deviate from his pre-scripted gags.
The coup is off until Gray reports.
I expect Gray’s report to be utterly damning, but *not* to find Johnson guilty as that’s outside the terms of her inquiry.
Johnson will try to use this to wriggle off, but I expect another leak to the media at this point.
I think Johnson resigns next week.