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Starmer’s approval ratings are heavily influenced by London – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,093
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    Starmer could do the same

    And if we are ever going to Rejoin it need to be sooner rather than later, the more years go by, the more the UK settles into an ex-EU situation, the more theidea of Rejoining seems insane

    I predict this will become quite a burning issue, if Labour retains dazzling polls. Watch the Guardian op-ed pages

    "Time for a Rethink" blah blah blah

    "Starmer has a golden opportunity to settle the EU Question"

    And so forth
    So what? If the people want it they’ll vote for it. If they don’t they won’t. The referendum’s been honoured. Its mandate past. That’s how democracy works.
    I completely agree. If Labour comes out of the closet in 2023 and says Well actually we want to Rejoin and we will call a new vote in office, and people say OK in the election, by all means call a vote. And if the Brits vote REJOIN unlike Remoaners and Mr Meeks and Scottxp and Keir Starmer, even tho I will abhor this choice, I will not seek to overturn it by not enacting it and calling another referendum to thwart it

    That's because I am morally superior and a democrat and Remoaners are Trumpite scum. But if these scum win their next vote, then they win, so be it

    But really my comment is more about political management. How does Starmer handle his sizeable hardcore of still-enraged Remainers who would love to reverse Brexit? It was easy when there was no chance of winning a majority..... but if there is?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,582
    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans
  • Options

    As PB's leading fashion expert would you like me to do a thread on the latest range of ALBA clothing?



    https://twitter.com/AlbaMerchandise/status/1483159332917288966

    Don't be a Smart Alex!
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Incidentally, I fear the failure to make good decisions might prove fatal for the BBC, if the licence fee ends and their attempted alternative is a catastrophe.

    That's why talk of the licence fee ending (from the Government) is stupid until they and/or the BBC have conceived of a well-considered alternative.

    However, given the political class' answer to Scottish nationalism has seen the union come within a whisker of being destroyed at the ballot box I am not confident such a thing will happen.

    Fine by me if the British political class retain current trajectory.

    I see no sign of them deviating from their chosen path.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well. James Blunt is ex-military and at a loose end.
    Guys, the government are giving away free drugs, and I am trying ALL of them.

    https://twitter.com/JamesBlunt/status/1479086569105547274?s=20
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Leon said:


    You clearly don't read my many posts that are scare-mongering about Covid, boasting about my sex life, boasting about selling stories from my young mistress about UFOS in Tooting to the Mail, recounting my adventures in Antarctica, discussing the best way to make a smoked haddock risotto, or baiting anyone with a Scot Nat tendency

    Stay. Hang out. My output is diverse, but hysterical

    No, it's not.

    It's not even funny any more - it's the boring old guff we've had from @SeanT and Martin Day since the late 2000s.

    The regurgitated excreta of legends I fear.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176
    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,956
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    Starmer could do the same

    And if we are ever going to Rejoin it need to be sooner rather than later, the more years go by, the more the UK settles into an ex-EU situation, the more theidea of Rejoining seems insane

    I predict this will become quite a burning issue, if Labour retains dazzling polls. Watch the Guardian op-ed pages

    "Time for a Rethink" blah blah blah

    "Starmer has a golden opportunity to settle the EU Question"

    And so forth
    This is why a lot of Tories want to get rid of Boris, they are now worrying about a Labour majority that unwinds Brexit. Rishi as PM might not get an 80 seat majority but ultimately a 20-30 seat majority kicks any Labour government that tries to unwind Brexit into 2029 at which point we'll be so far diverged from the EU that going back is untenable.
    There’s nothing to unwind . Not sure why Leavers can’t accept the win and move on .
    Seems a majority of 80 does not bend reality to your Will. After decades of banging on about nowt else that revelation can be shattering.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    That has to be just about the most surreal comment I have read on PB
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    He got his majority in 2015, NOT 2014, dickhead!
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415


    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    5m
    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1483167702105608202



    ===

    Utterly desperate and out of control.

    It's like the last hours of Nixon.

    Train Killer Whales to do it for you. And Beach Bears patrolling the coast.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,270
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    Starmer could do the same

    And if we are ever going to Rejoin it need to be sooner rather than later, the more years go by, the more the UK settles into an ex-EU situation, the more theidea of Rejoining seems insane

    I predict this will become quite a burning issue, if Labour retains dazzling polls. Watch the Guardian op-ed pages

    "Time for a Rethink" blah blah blah

    "Starmer has a golden opportunity to settle the EU Question"

    And so forth
    So what? If the people want it they’ll vote for it. If they don’t they won’t. The referendum’s been honoured. Its mandate past. That’s how democracy works.
    I completely agree. If Labour comes out of the closet in 2023 and says Well actually we want to Rejoin and we will call a new vote in office, and people say OK in the election, by all means call a vote. And if the Brits vote REJOIN unlike Remoaners and Mr Meeks and Scottxp and Keir Starmer, even tho I will abhor this choice, I will not seek to overturn it by not enacting it and calling another referendum to thwart it

    That's because I am morally superior and a democrat and Remoaners are Trumpite scum. But if these scum win their next vote, then they win, so be it

    But really my comment is more about political management. How does Starmer handle his sizeable hardcore of still-enraged Remainers who would love to reverse Brexit? It was easy when there was no chance of winning a majority..... but if there is?
    EEA and CU is either the sensible way that Brexit should have been started in the first place, or a step back toward rejoin, depending upon who is asking.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    He got his majority in 2015, NOT 2014, dickhead!
    It was supposed to be later than 16 but they brought it forward to out flank Farage momentum. I remember Nige and my mum squealing about it.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    Who could have predicted that Johnson's claim not to have known in advance wouldn't stand up to scrutiny? https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1483156617021509636

    He really is trapped now. Obliged to offer implausible accounts in an effort to avoid admitting legal liability when a story breaks, then the inevitable disintegration of the "will this do?" excuse just extends the story further. Then there's another party, and another excuse...
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483170290859446274

    Any chance he can extend his hiding in the fridge medical isolation?

    About 2 or 3 years should do the trick.

    Though at this rate, the Conservative poll ratings will be negative well before the local elections.
    Johnson breaking the laws of arithmetic? Maybe he’ll make the history books right enough.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    Make Brexit Work is absolutely brilliant for Labour, not only because its a Domo Cumo 3 worder and because of its beautiful play on words with “Work”, but also because its wishy washy enough to be all things to all people.

    Can Keir sell it? Probably not.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,211

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
    Yes. Peak has passed. Demand for boosters sadly well down, though loads done. What is there to wait for?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176
    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,901
    The extent to which this administration has managed to debase public debate and degrade our polity is laid bare by the simple fact that we find ourselves debating whether the PM lied when he said he knew nothing about parties, having established that he attended several of them.
    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1483173639029678084
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,956

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    He got his majority in 2015, NOT 2014, dickhead!
    It was supposed to be later than 16 but they brought it forward to out flank Farage momentum. I remember Nige and my mum squealing about it.
    The stated excuse was so the Tory Party could re-unite in time for the 2020 election.
    And it worked too, a year early.
    Just not in the way Dave imagined.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    Late to thread, a couple of points about the Opinium poll.

    Firstly, Opinium need to take more care with some of their headings on the cross breaks in the individual tables, which have been mixed up. On the top row, what should be Green voters are wrongly labelled "UKIP", Some Other Party are labelled "Green" and Don't Know are labelled "Reform". Worth bearing in mind if you're delving into the detail. Table V03 makes the error very clear. It doesn't alter the conclusions unless you're trying to discover what say Green voters think of say Johnson or Starmer and it's only apparent because Opinium's detail is far more transparent than any other company.

    Secondly, and on thread, if Starmer has net approval of -10 in Scotland, that's pretty good for a party for which only 25% of Scots intend to vote for currently (up 3% since GE 2019). Possibly the best approval of any Labour leader for a decade, as Miliband's ratings were always pretty dire in Scotland.

    Thirdly, Starmer is level pegging on net approval even in the strongly Leave-voting and 2019 Conservative-voting Midlands, which I think shows that the electorate is moving on a bit from judging Starmer based on the time of Brexit.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    We've got Brian Blessed, if that helps..?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    Regression to the mean stats over traffic deaths was a big trick for justification for speed cameras.....a road has big year of accident*, in goes traffic camera, magic it goes down massively the next year, speed camera was effective, but when you zoom out, you find its just regression to the mean trend.

    * it was often counted in terms of injuries as well, so one big accident could be 5-10 injuries.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    nico679 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    Starmer could do the same

    And if we are ever going to Rejoin it need to be sooner rather than later, the more years go by, the more the UK settles into an ex-EU situation, the more theidea of Rejoining seems insane

    I predict this will become quite a burning issue, if Labour retains dazzling polls. Watch the Guardian op-ed pages

    "Time for a Rethink" blah blah blah

    "Starmer has a golden opportunity to settle the EU Question"

    And so forth
    This is why a lot of Tories want to get rid of Boris, they are now worrying about a Labour majority that unwinds Brexit. Rishi as PM might not get an 80 seat majority but ultimately a 20-30 seat majority kicks any Labour government that tries to unwind Brexit into 2029 at which point we'll be so far diverged from the EU that going back is untenable.
    There’s nothing to unwind . Not sure why Leavers can’t accept the win and move on .
    Because Leavers will never be happy. They are committed to a process, not an objective.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
    Yes. Peak has passed. Demand for boosters sadly well down, though loads done. What is there to wait for?
    The boosters have boosted those who (may have) needed them. I wouldn’t worry about the take up now.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    THis. 100x this.

    If I go down, pal, you are coming down with me...

    Rob Ford
    @robfordmancs
    ·
    11m
    Replying to
    @robfordmancs
    In addition, his comeback plan over the weekend was to brief the press that a bunch of his staff would be getting the sack in order to "save big dog". Did he assume, against all the evidence of the last year, that his minions had nothing left to leak?

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483171312143151112
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    Regression to the mean stats over traffic deaths was a big trick for justification for speed cameras.....road has big year of accidents, in goes traffic camera, magic it goes down the next year, speed camera was effective, but when you zoom out, you find its just regression to the mean.
    Yes it was. I once called out liars in a cinema after an ad about that.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    No need to apologise - that's interesting.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
    Yes. Peak has passed. Demand for boosters sadly well down, though loads done. What is there to wait for?
    The Committee for Public Safety.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,332
    Scott_xP said:

    Who could have predicted that Johnson's claim not to have known in advance wouldn't stand up to scrutiny? https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1483156617021509636

    He really is trapped now. Obliged to offer implausible accounts in an effort to avoid admitting legal liability when a story breaks, then the inevitable disintegration of the "will this do?" excuse just extends the story further. Then there's another party, and another excuse...
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483170290859446274

    I think people actually need a NEW scandal. They're getting bored with all the party stuff, and I think that the claims that Johnson ignored a warning will just wash over the uncommitted.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    edited January 2022

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    Regression to the mean stats over traffic deaths was a big trick for justification for speed cameras.....road has big year of accidents, in goes traffic camera, magic it goes down the next year, speed camera was effective, but when you zoom out, you find its just regression to the mean.
    Yes it was. I once called out liars in a cinema after an ad about that.
    My pet hate was 'This is the sound of a car doing 30mph hitting a child' followed by the squeal of brakes and then a child sobbing.

    Well, if it was braking, it wasn't doing 30mph at the moment of impact, was it? I'm willing to bet that if you drive straight over a child even at 30mph you'll kill it.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,956

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
    Yes. Peak has passed. Demand for boosters sadly well down, though loads done. What is there to wait for?
    It's Jam Tomorrow Johnson.
    All of a piece.
    Promise summat then play on fears that if he isn't there it won't get done.
    See also.
    Levelling Up Plans.
    Boat crossings.
    Brexit dividend.
    Continue ad nauseum.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,158

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    It’s the same with alcohol consumption. You’d never believe rates of drinking have been declining pretty consistently since about 2005.

    I don’t know about this show but, across the network, news (especially local) and current affairs shows are a vehicle for lobbying organisations to get messages over.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191

    THis. 100x this.

    If I go down, pal, you are coming down with me...

    Rob Ford
    @robfordmancs
    ·
    11m
    Replying to
    @robfordmancs
    In addition, his comeback plan over the weekend was to brief the press that a bunch of his staff would be getting the sack in order to "save big dog". Did he assume, against all the evidence of the last year, that his minions had nothing left to leak?

    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483171312143151112

    Well, they've taken the piss so often it would be unsurprising if they were dry.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Make Brexit Work is absolutely brilliant for Labour, not only because its a Domo Cumo 3 worder and because of its beautiful play on words with “Work”, but also because its wishy washy enough to be all things to all people.

    I agree. Make Brexit Work would be a tremendous Labour slogan. The SNP and Lib Dems can’t touch it with a barge pole, because we want to rejoin. But for Labour it’s outstanding on several fronts:

    - rubs Con noses in their own faeces. They are desperately trying to obliterate the B word from the vocabulary. Fantastic to ram it down their throats.

    -as you say, the “work” word is perfect for Labour

    -the sense of cleaning up the total midden that the Tories are leaving behind

    Nicking other parties slogans can work well: I remember Fredrik Reinfeldt nicking an old Social Democrat election slogan when he won his first election. That was also about ‘work’.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I saw the start of that and I thought they quoted a 5% increase in deaths per km travelled in 2020 compared with 2019. But even that is one year of data and COVID means the mix of people driving on the road would have been very different. It may be that those who were driving in 2020 were generally worse drivers.

    Overall, we’ve plateaued in the last decade. Cars are as safe as can be (for those inside), there’s nothing that will save people from the really bad crashes.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    It's at least two years since I've encountered anyone so obsessed about Brexit as you still are.

    You mention Brexit in every single post on here.
    You clearly don't read my many posts that are scare-mongering about Covid, boasting about my sex life, boasting about selling stories from my young mistress about UFOS in Tooting to the Mail, recounting my adventures in Antarctica, discussing the best way to make a smoked haddock risotto, or baiting anyone with a Scot Nat tendency

    Stay. Hang out. My output is diverse, but hysterical
    You did get pretty ferocious about Wick at one time. Though they have excellent smoked haddock and also herring.

    Edit: Finnan haddock, or alternatively Arbroath smokies, are the ones to go for if you have not tried them (from the East Coast of Scotland).
  • Options

    Make Brexit Work is absolutely brilliant for Labour, not only because its a Domo Cumo 3 worder and because of its beautiful play on words with “Work”, but also because its wishy washy enough to be all things to all people.

    Can Keir sell it? Probably not.
    Whilst Keir isn't the ideal salesman, the key question is whether the public want to buy it. When the student is ready, the teacher appears and all that.

    And whilst there is a chunk of the voting population who are desperate that their one contribution to the history books isn't Tippexed out, some mad aunts who insist on the rest of us saying "Thank you for this hand-knitted cardigan, I will wear it every day", they're a minority, as are the "Rejoin NOW" crowd.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688
    edited January 2022
    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176
    tlg86 said:

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I saw the start of that and I thought they quoted a 5% increase in deaths per km travelled in 2020 compared with 2019. But even that is one year of data and COVID means the mix of people driving on the road would have been very different. It may be that those who were driving in 2020 were generally worse drivers.

    Overall, we’ve plateaued in the last decade. Cars are as safe as can be (for those inside), there’s nothing that will save people from the really bad crashes.
    I missed the start, but they majored on the 1600 and the ‘increase’. It will be interesting to see 2022 data, as that should be a better comparator to 2019.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Scott_xP said:

    Who could have predicted that Johnson's claim not to have known in advance wouldn't stand up to scrutiny? https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1483156617021509636

    He really is trapped now. Obliged to offer implausible accounts in an effort to avoid admitting legal liability when a story breaks, then the inevitable disintegration of the "will this do?" excuse just extends the story further. Then there's another party, and another excuse...
    https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483170290859446274

    I think people actually need a NEW scandal. They're getting bored with all the party stuff, and I think that the claims that Johnson ignored a warning will just wash over the uncommitted.
    Fascinating. Nick’s worried.

    For some reason, this warms the cockles of my heart.

    Any Lib Dems want to emit a touch of angst? Then I’d have the full set.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,901
    A Tory MP tells after getting 100s of angry emails they’ve been having discussions with colleagues about whether Boris Johnson should be in power.

    To make it worse, Dominic Cummings is now claiming that the PM is lying about his knowledge of the No10 party.


    My live on @itvnews: https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1483175378843807749/video/1
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,332
    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 @BethRigby now has two confirmed Downing St sources confirming PM knew about the Downing St party in May
    🚨 Sue Gray report may be delayed now
    🚨 *All* Tory MPs she’s been speaking to say constituents are furious and are in a worse mood than last week
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1483156617021509636

    Hmm, what's the source for this? The only person to be able to say what all Tory MPs who she talks with is Sue Gray. Does Sky suggest that (a) she asks every MP "what are your constituents saying, eh, mate?" and (b) then leaks it to Sky?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    I have been bullish on covid for a while now - at least for the UK. But what about waning vaccine immunity? It's easy to dump all over Warwick and their model but what are we going to do regards further vaccination?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176
    tlg86 said:

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I saw the start of that and I thought they quoted a 5% increase in deaths per km travelled in 2020 compared with 2019. But even that is one year of data and COVID means the mix of people driving on the road would have been very different. It may be that those who were driving in 2020 were generally worse drivers.

    Overall, we’ve plateaued in the last decade. Cars are as safe as can be (for those inside), there’s nothing that will save people from the really bad crashes.
    I also think it’s going to be hard to get much safer. There will always be bad drivers, and sadly drink driving hasn’t gone away. In reality, horrific and sad for those affected, it’s interesting to stack up road deaths against other ways of shuffling of this earth. If you are bored the HSE has lists of accidental death reasons that can be perused.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,972
    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I haven't seen the programme but it sounded fishy to me on a report I heard earlier.

    This is a form of a particularly annoying type of "journalism" where they breathlessly report that X is at the highest/lowest level for Y years. It is completely meaningless. Show that it is statistically significant before taking one step further. Quite often such stories are regurgitating crap put out by charities that skate perilously close to political campaigning.
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I saw the start of that and I thought they quoted a 5% increase in deaths per km travelled in 2020 compared with 2019. But even that is one year of data and COVID means the mix of people driving on the road would have been very different. It may be that those who were driving in 2020 were generally worse drivers.

    Overall, we’ve plateaued in the last decade. Cars are as safe as can be (for those inside), there’s nothing that will save people from the really bad crashes.
    I also think it’s going to be hard to get much safer. There will always be bad drivers, and sadly drink driving hasn’t gone away. In reality, horrific and sad for those affected, it’s interesting to stack up road deaths against other ways of shuffling of this earth. If you are bored the HSE has lists of accidental death reasons that can be perused.
    The AI is going to drive us all ;-)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,270
    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.
  • Options
    glw said:

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    I haven't seen the programme but it sounded fishy to me on a report I heard earlier.

    This is a form of a particularly annoying type of "journalism" where they breathlessly report that X is at the highest/lowest level for Y years. It is completely meaningless. Show that it is statistically significant before taking one step further. Quite often such stories are regurgitating crap put out by charities that skate perilously close to political campaigning.
    Its totally shocking....I mean we haven't just had 2 years of this with COVID stats....
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,901

    Hmm, what's the source for this? The only person to be able to say what all Tory MPs who she talks with is Sue Gray. Does Sky suggest that (a) she asks every MP "what are your constituents saying, eh, mate?" and (b) then leaks it to Sky?

    The 'she" is Beth Rigby, not Sue Gray
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022
    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    The security within the government really is lax. I am sure the Chinese are all having a very good laugh at these videos.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    I have been bullish on covid for a while now - at least for the UK. But what about waning vaccine immunity? It's easy to dump all over Warwick and their model but what are we going to do regards further vaccination?

    As discussed here many times, the neutralising antibodies will wane, but the immune memory is more robust. I’d expect boosters this autumn for those who normally get flu vaccinations.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,660

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 @BethRigby now has two confirmed Downing St sources confirming PM knew about the Downing St party in May
    🚨 Sue Gray report may be delayed now
    🚨 *All* Tory MPs she’s been speaking to say constituents are furious and are in a worse mood than last week
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1483156617021509636

    Hmm, what's the source for this? The only person to be able to say what all Tory MPs who she talks with is Sue Gray. Does Sky suggest that (a) she asks every MP "what are your constituents saying, eh, mate?" and (b) then leaks it to Sky?
    I assumed the "she" was Beth Rigby, not Sue Gray.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    I thought so. And that somebody has probably long since shared it with Cummings.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,956

    Make Brexit Work is absolutely brilliant for Labour, not only because its a Domo Cumo 3 worder and because of its beautiful play on words with “Work”, but also because its wishy washy enough to be all things to all people.

    Can Keir sell it? Probably not.
    Whilst Keir isn't the ideal salesman, the key question is whether the public want to buy it. When the student is ready, the teacher appears and all that.

    And whilst there is a chunk of the voting population who are desperate that their one contribution to the history books isn't Tippexed out, some mad aunts who insist on the rest of us saying "Thank you for this hand-knitted cardigan, I will wear it every day", they're a minority, as are the "Rejoin NOW" crowd.
    When the student is truly ready, the teacher disappears.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    A Tory MP tells after getting 100s of angry emails they’ve been having discussions with colleagues about whether Boris Johnson should be in power.

    To make it worse, Dominic Cummings is now claiming that the PM is lying about his knowledge of the No10 party.


    My live on @itvnews: https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1483175378843807749/video/1

    Dom's poison on prime time TV news is cut through. That, plus Sky having a second source. He is toast.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    Starmer could do the same

    And if we are ever going to Rejoin it need to be sooner rather than later, the more years go by, the more the UK settles into an ex-EU situation, the more theidea of Rejoining seems insane

    I predict this will become quite a burning issue, if Labour retains dazzling polls. Watch the Guardian op-ed pages

    "Time for a Rethink" blah blah blah

    "Starmer has a golden opportunity to settle the EU Question"

    And so forth
    So what? If the people want it they’ll vote for it. If they don’t they won’t. The referendum’s been honoured. Its mandate past. That’s how democracy works.
    I completely agree. If Labour comes out of the closet in 2023 and says Well actually we want to Rejoin and we will call a new vote in office, and people say OK in the election, by all means call a vote. And if the Brits vote REJOIN unlike Remoaners and Mr Meeks and Scottxp and Keir Starmer, even tho I will abhor this choice, I will not seek to overturn it by not enacting it and calling another referendum to thwart it

    That's because I am morally superior and a democrat and Remoaners are Trumpite scum. But if these scum win their next vote, then they win, so be it

    But really my comment is more about political management. How does Starmer handle his sizeable hardcore of still-enraged Remainers who would love to reverse Brexit? It was easy when there was no chance of winning a majority..... but if there is?
    If Starmer actually gets to be PM he'll have enough political credit within the Labour Party at least to do what he likes rather than be beholden to anyone within the party. Much as Blair had carte blanche after 1997 and 2001.

    Nor do I think that he's for a minute naive enough to imagine that restarting the Brexit wars will do anything but scupper Labour's hard won back support in Red Wall constituencies and lead to a renewed loss of trust. Evidence for that comes from his appointment of Claire Ainsley, who remains his policy chief. That very much indicates the political intent and is why "Make Brexit Work" shouldn't be assumed to be just a politically astute slogan.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8257311/Sir-Keir-Starmers-new-policy-chief-pro-Brexit-far-cry-Jeremy-Corbyns-Labour.html



  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    On another note when is the next by election?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,956

    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    The security within the government really is lax. I am sure the Chinese are all having a very good laugh at these videos.
    Tends to happen when you're pissed or hungover all the time.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,137

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
    I'm not even sure No 10 were thinking that far, in between panicking about doggies wee or muckle. I mean, even 'A Home Office source branded the suggestion “f***ing bonkers.”'
  • Options

    On another note when is the next by election?

    3rd of February.
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Make Brexit Work is absolutely brilliant for Labour, not only because its a Domo Cumo 3 worder and because of its beautiful play on words with “Work”, but also because its wishy washy enough to be all things to all people.

    Can Keir sell it? Probably not.
    Whilst Keir isn't the ideal salesman, the key question is whether the public want to buy it. When the student is ready, the teacher appears and all that.

    And whilst there is a chunk of the voting population who are desperate that their one contribution to the history books isn't Tippexed out, some mad aunts who insist on the rest of us saying "Thank you for this hand-knitted cardigan, I will wear it every day", they're a minority, as are the "Rejoin NOW" crowd.
    When the student is truly ready, the teacher disappears.
    True, though fortunately for my ongoing income, that's rather rarer.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    I thought so. And that somebody has probably long since shared it with Cummings.
    Not going to be very interesting in the main, though, except as evidence of Stratton's uselessness at the job.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Who would guess that loudly briefing that people are going to get fired and publicly humiliated might cause them to find ways to not have that happen to them. Once again No.10 makes a big problem much worse. Everyone potentially in line to get fired probably have dirt on BJ.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,093

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    March FFS? Do it next week, or even better on wed, at pmqs, effective immediately.
    Yes. Peak has passed. Demand for boosters sadly well down, though loads done. What is there to wait for?
    Yeah, fuck "March". Do it now*

    *with one watchful eye on sub-variant BA2
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
    I'm not even sure No 10 were thinking that far, in between panicking about doggies wee or muckle. I mean, even 'A Home Office source branded the suggestion “f***ing bonkers.”'
    Patel calling someone else “fucking bonkers”?

    Tory Kristallnacht averted.

    They’re not as daft as they look.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022

    On another note when is the next by election?

    3rd of February.
    Uncontested though.

    ETA Is there still time to put up a candidate? For the Boris is a Lying Kant party, say?
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If Labour do return to power, especially if they get an unexpected majority, I wonder how long it will be before their ill-concealed Remainer instincts come to the fore?

    Half of them are the bastard offspring of A C Grayling and @Scott_xP

    They have never accepted Brexit, they would reverse it tomorrow (by a coup, if necessary) and Starmer is one of theirs. A 2nd voter. A Trumpite on the left, who was willing to overturn democracy by thwarting the referendum

    Can they really keep their primal instincts concealed? It's like asking alcoholics to be happy with alcohol free lager, even tho their best friend now has the keys to the pub. It's not gonna work

    At some point this is gonna become a real problem for Labour, I just wonder if it will be before or after the next election. If the polls stay amazing (for the left), it might come before

    There's no way back without a referendum which would take years to organize and legislate for.
    Not really. Cameron got elected in 2014 and called his EU vote in 2016

    He got his majority in 2015, NOT 2014, dickhead!
    It was supposed to be later than 16 but they brought it forward to out flank Farage momentum. I remember Nige and my mum squealing about it.
    The stated excuse was so the Tory Party could re-unite in time for the 2020 election.
    And it worked too, a year early.
    Just not in the way Dave imagined.
    You are on form tonight Dixie.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,972
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
    It would be an absolutely bizarre move, but that’s what all the papers are being briefed, it would seem. When will this ever end?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,688

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
    I'm not even sure No 10 were thinking that far, in between panicking about doggies wee or muckle. I mean, even 'A Home Office source branded the suggestion “f***ing bonkers.”'
    Patel calling someone else “fucking bonkers”?

    Tory Kristallnacht averted.

    They’re not as daft as they look.
    Could be her staff or spads.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,582

    Off topic (sorry), back to the BBC. I watched the BBC1 killer roads doc tonight and something smelled fishy. They quoted 1600 road deaths in 2021 and talked about a reversing trend. I’m always suspicious about short term data, so I looked up all road deaths in the U.K. for the last 20 years. In that time we’ve gone from around 3000 per year to about 1700 in 2019. In 2020 this was down significantly to around 1400. Then back up in 2021 to 1600.
    So they have taken a rise in 2020 from the low recordeded in the first year of the pandemic, you know, the one with the proper lockdown, and used this to assert that the decline in road deaths has been reversed. They then had the nerve to blame this on the police for not doing enough.
    Frankly if I could be arsed I’d complain, but the standard bbc response is to say ‘we think we got it about right’.
    Wankers. Either they just don’t understand numbers, trends and data, or they are deceitful wankers.

    Terrible journalism. Thanks for flagging it up.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599

    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    The security within the government really is lax. I am sure the Chinese are all having a very good laugh at these videos.
    That is one of the things that struck me about Partygate, just how lax and amateurish the security is. Whole suitcases of booze being wheeled past security without a glance. Apparently no one with a Commons pass is searched at Parliament either, just waved past the metal detectors, including Barry Gardner's Chinese friend.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,972
    That said, presumably Bozzatron will face a huge rebellion if he tries to extend the mask mandate? Would appear to be odd politics given the febrile atmosphere in the PCP.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
    I'm not even sure No 10 were thinking that far, in between panicking about doggies wee or muckle. I mean, even 'A Home Office source branded the suggestion “f***ing bonkers.”'
    Patel calling someone else “fucking bonkers”?

    Tory Kristallnacht averted.

    They’re not as daft as they look.
    Could be her staff or spads.
    Her employees. Her responsibility.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    rpjs said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Desperate No 10 officials have explored use of sonic weapons to turn small boats around in Channel - but met extreme resistance from the Home Office and Border Force..

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17354454/sonic-weapons-migrants-boats-channel/

    Well yes, I suspect the UKBF and Hone Office head honchos don’t fancy an extended taxpayer-funded holiday to the Hague.
    Complete with minimalist accommodation. Very trendy, the simplicity.
    It’s the “Desperate No 10 officials” who should be dragged before The Hague judges. Bunch of total scum.
    "The piercing beam of sound emitted is highly directional so could be aimed at a small boat skipper."

    Even if the weapons were gyrostabilised, the target does have a habit of bobbing up and down in the sea. And what is supposed to happen if the skipper is incapacitated?
    The foreigners drown.

    A xenophobe’s dream.
    I'm not even sure No 10 were thinking
    Stop there and it works on all levels.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
    It would be an absolutely bizarre move, but that’s what all the papers are being briefed, it would seem. When will this ever end?
    Is this negative briefing so that the actual announcement of ‘no more restrictions at all’ is a big moment?
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    The security within the government really is lax. I am sure the Chinese are all having a very good laugh at these videos.
    That is one of the things that struck me about Partygate, just how lax and amateurish the security is. Whole suitcases of booze being wheeled past security without a glance. Apparently no one with a Commons pass is searched at Parliament either, just waved past the metal detectors, including Barry Gardner's Chinese friend.

    Bunch of total amateurs.
  • Options

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
    It would be an absolutely bizarre move, but that’s what all the papers are being briefed, it would seem. When will this ever end?
    Its already been widely and increasingly ignored in my experience.

    Now if the government wants to persist in restrictions which are ignored then it will only result in looking weak and out of touch.

    Alternatively its expectations management and they'll announce the end to mask wearing because things are going so well.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,972

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    Is that some sort of euphemism?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
    At what point do they have to show us their instrument, on the day?

    I think it’s Javid, insisting the commons to remain masked.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,660
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to The Sun, Tory Party managers believe somebody has 60 hours of video of aides rehearsing for the abandoned No10 TV briefings.

    I thought so. And that somebody has probably long since shared it with Cummings.
    Not going to be very interesting in the main, though, except as evidence of Stratton's uselessness at the job.
    I imagine we've seen the most inflammatory clip already.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,093

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    I like that I am the go-to guy for gossip about obscure German TV drama involving lesbians

    Danke
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    Moon Rabbit or Snow Bunny? :lol:
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    Never heard it called that before!
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,176
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    Never heard it called that before!
    Pace Carry on follow that camel - ‘What an unusual way to check my passport/ticket/visa...’
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Ouch!

    50% of women are planning to vote Labour. Fifty percent. Let that sink in.

    Lab 50%
    Con 24%
    LD 9%
    Grn 8%
    SNP 4%
    Ref 3%
    PC 1%
    oth 2%

    (R&W; 17 January; 2,000)
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The Tory membership is too male.

    Discuss.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    Never heard it called that before!
    It’s a night club. A Jewish night club. The whole things a bit like Babylon Berlin only without police, shop workers instead.
    period Berlin comes across a really bohemian and I like that.

    Don’t know if any of this helps explain.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    It still dominates their thinking and emotions.

    I don't think about Brexit nearly as much as you do.
    Plainly untrue. Unless you are additionally thinking of sapphic sex as often as Leon is.

    Talking of which @leon have you seen KaDeWe? Valerie Stoll is so cute and the sapphic love affair soooo good.

    image

    Because I have German ancestry I like practicing my German with the subtitles off.
    I like that I am the go-to guy for gossip about obscure German TV drama involving lesbians

    Danke
    Tragic.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,972

    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "All Covid restrictions in England could end in March under No 10 plans
    Guidance may replace legal requirements as Boris Johnson indicates UK must now live with the virus"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/17/all-covid-restrictions-in-england-could-end-in-march-under-no-10-plans

    Another story predicting the retention of masking - so not an end to Plan B at all…

    From that story: But ministers are expected to continue in the short term with rules mandating mask-wearing in shops and on public transport.
    The statutory instrument for masks expires on Wednesday next week. They will have to publish a statutory instrument extending that in the nearish future so we will know soon enough.
    It would be an absolutely bizarre move, but that’s what all the papers are being briefed, it would seem. When will this ever end?
    Is this negative briefing so that the actual announcement of ‘no more restrictions at all’ is a big moment?
    Quite possibly so. As I say above, an extension of masking means an extension of (some of the most visible parts) of Plan B. It would face a huge rebellion I think. Which Bozzatron won’t want.

    Regarding to Graun story, the bulk of that yarn is about binning self-isolation and test and trace laws (replacing with guidance) which does indeed meet its sunset in March.

    The element about continued maskery is a line buried in the story.
This discussion has been closed.