It's sobering to realise that in November we were all debating whether a Labour poll lead was possible in 2021.
If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
They might not. Things have calmed down a touch during the last few days, give it another two weeks until she completes the report and the scene may look even calmer.
That's why I think Cummings will want to act sooner, if he has any more to add.
He signs off his latest with "I’ll say more when SG’s report is published." I believe bridge players call this finessing her.
Hmm. Although perhaps SG's report may be sooner than we think.
Estimates are getting longer not shorter, the pressure on her must be so intense there is always the temptation to buy another 24 hours, she has 100 people to interview all of whom can play the Covid card on her as an evasion technique. In fact I think someone should put up markets as to whether she reports by month end, or indeed ever.
Strange how both Starmer and Johnson seem to be relatively more popular / less unpopular in London. Johnson was only -13 in London according to the previous thread header, better than elsewhere.
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
The large proportion of DKs and WNVs should worry Labour. If they go back to the Tories then you're looking at an unstable Labour minority government.
I'm not sure about that. It's a process, isn't it? Labour has done little yet, policy-wise, to attract alienated Tory voters, and it's a wrench for them to break away from BJ, so DK/WNV is a half-way house. Once Labour comes up with a reasonably attractive offer (assuming they do), they should be able to attract a reasonably proportion of the DK/WNVs. In that context, for Labour to be polling 43% in one poll tonight is pretty good.
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would the City of London and Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
It's sobering to realise that in November we were all debating whether a Labour poll lead was possible in 2021.
If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
But what happens if (a) Mr J sits on it and (b) edits it? It does go through him.
He won't get away with concealing the report
Doesn't have to, just sit on it for as long as he can.
Wont be long before he gets up to go to the wine fridge though.
Libdem down three… but…. There’s not even enough of us to party on that industrial scale.
ANOTHER ROUGUE POLL it’s a whole batch of rough polls klaxon noise from me. 🤬
Cra crap crap crap crap crap crap crap
I think the pollings crap.
I can explain it. The uniqueness of the situation their polling process can’t handle.
Libdems double digits right not sinking now ignore rougue polls! I know better than they do. Libdems take Tory votes in reality, in ways Labour can’t. Therefore these polls not realistic
☹️
The list of Famous Rules, continued.....
Rule 4: A rogue poll is any poll where you don't like the result.
I think moon unit is probably correct that, if an election were to be held, the libdems would end up in double figures. But I think that's more the consequence of tactical voting, rather than a great swell of support for them.
And potentially, that's fine for them. Compare '92 and '97; the LibDem vote went down, but their sest count more than doubled.
(Theory: when Labour are in the doldrums, Lib Dems pick up some of their votes, mostly in places they can't win either. When Conservatives are in trouble, Lib Dems lose useless votes to Labour, whole gaining votes from Conservatives in places they can be competitive. For Lib Dems in particular, where the votes are matters a lot more than their number.)
Hence I am right. Thank you. 🙂
If Tory’s tanking nationally, take a little bit from everywhere and add it to libdems, there would be a little uptick not 25% drop.
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
A new Leader can get the Tories back to 80% of their 2019 voters fairly easily IMO, the losses to Labour could be won back too but the losses to other parties will be harder to win back, those who end up in the REFUK column may well become DNV in 2024. With a new leader it's all to play for, with Boris it's a Labour majority.
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
In which case it's Rabb or Hague for next PM - as a caretaker capacity is probably enough to win the next PM market given the t&cs of those markets.
42% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 24% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest lead we have recorded for Sunak over Johnson on this topic. This week’s poll also finds Boris Johnson’s narrowest lead over Rishi Sunak for better Prime Minister among 2019 Conservative voters, with 41% of this demographic saying Johnson and 40% saying Sunak would be better.
It's sobering to realise that in November we were all debating whether a Labour poll lead was possible in 2021.
If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
They might not. Things have calmed down a touch during the last few days, give it another two weeks until she completes the report and the scene may look even calmer.
That's why I think Cummings will want to act sooner, if he has any more to add.
He signs off his latest with "I’ll say more when SG’s report is published." I believe bridge players call this finessing her.
Hmm. Although perhaps SG's report may be sooner than we think.
Estimates are getting longer not shorter, the pressure on her must be so intense there is always the temptation to buy another 24 hours, she has 100 people to interview all of whom can play the Covid card on her as an evasion technique. In fact I think someone should put up markets as to whether she reports by month end, or indeed ever.
There's always the issue too, though, of whether Cummings can activate others' leaks. As I recall, with some of these leaks, he seems to have given vague or implicit notice of them, and then someone else has apparently leaked them to ITV or similar. He may being asking others apparently to release info at various times, but only to officially comment himself after Gray's report.
Something about the tone of his tweets suggests a sort of anti-Boris clearing house. As if he has a sort of franchise, and is the go-to man if you have a leak to contribute and be co-ordinated for you, but don't want to be identified.
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
At some point you may discover the damage that Boris is doing to your party. If you a losing the Red Wall seats and your safe seats what have you got left.
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
Raab is at 34 on Betfair exchange (12 gbp available) and @Richard_Nabavi has pointed out he becomes pm pretty much automatically if bj goes suddenly
BBC Food/Goodfood is an interesting one - I think they're both not long for this world. They're both being destroyed by YouTubers who have monetised their channels with adverts and click through revenue. I was watching a video for making some kind of Japanese beef, it had a few ads that I just lived with and it also had affiliate links to all of the equipment used in the video in the description where the recipe ingredients are typed out. I had a look and the chef probably makes somewhere in the region of $20-30k per month in advertising plus whatever he gets from click through. That's just one moderately successful chef specialising in Japanese dishes. He does them really well though and shows the exact method of how to make it well. Static web pages will never do that very well.
I don't see how BBC Food can compete with these people on any kind of scale, there's no way they can buy up the channels, they could hire chefs and monetise the videos but to get all kinds of cuisines they'd need an army of them and the channel just becomes cluttered or they need a network and there's no guarantee that they would be able to get their subscribers to cross subscribe.
In an age where my phone has got an almost 7" screen and there's chefs on YouTube offering advertising funded masterclasses why would I bother with a BBC Food written recipe from a chef who doesn't even specialise in the cuisine?
BBC Good Food is trying to make their app a subscription based model. I think they are in big trouble.
NYTimes manages it. But then again, it's about 100x better than the BBC version.
Are you sure about NYTimes involvement. I can't see any mention to that anywhere. Its owned by Immediate Media which in turn is owned by a Germany media group.
I noted you said "managed", but I can't see any reference to that.
I think Robert means that NYT manages to have a successful food subscription channel. They do. I subscribe
Yeah, that's the model of the future, videos from professional chefs, monetised recipes, monetised videos and (low) subscription fees. I've been tempted by the £25 annual option, is it worth it? Seems a snip at that price for professional level cooking videos and recipes.
Also key question -
Do they have an imperial to metric converter for measurements? I have no clue what cups are or do.
No.
They seem utterly oblivious to the fact that not all the world using fluid ounces, cups, quarts and gallons.
Living in America, I've adjusted. But it may take a bit of getting used to for you.
My daughter, who is quite into baking, showed me a recipe containing cups and asked which size cup she should use. When I explained the US has specifically sized "cups" for it she began lecturing me on what a stupid system it was. I'm still not quite sure why it was my fault. When a 12yo realises the measurement system is stupid then quite why the whole of the US can't realise this is a mystery.
For baking it's a nightmare as everything needs to be fairly precise. I've essentially given up using US imperial recipes and I've not found it an issue. There's plenty of recipes from the UK and across Europe for the same dishes, often a lot better unless it's something like bbq meat or a US speciality.
The idea that a specific measurement system is stupid is rather odd. They are all arbitrary.
While that may be true, the metric system makes sense, 1 gram is 1 ml of water at room temperature, essentially. Imperial weights and measures should be consigned to the dustbin of history.
BBC Food/Goodfood is an interesting one - I think they're both not long for this world. They're both being destroyed by YouTubers who have monetised their channels with adverts and click through revenue. I was watching a video for making some kind of Japanese beef, it had a few ads that I just lived with and it also had affiliate links to all of the equipment used in the video in the description where the recipe ingredients are typed out. I had a look and the chef probably makes somewhere in the region of $20-30k per month in advertising plus whatever he gets from click through. That's just one moderately successful chef specialising in Japanese dishes. He does them really well though and shows the exact method of how to make it well. Static web pages will never do that very well.
I don't see how BBC Food can compete with these people on any kind of scale, there's no way they can buy up the channels, they could hire chefs and monetise the videos but to get all kinds of cuisines they'd need an army of them and the channel just becomes cluttered or they need a network and there's no guarantee that they would be able to get their subscribers to cross subscribe.
In an age where my phone has got an almost 7" screen and there's chefs on YouTube offering advertising funded masterclasses why would I bother with a BBC Food written recipe from a chef who doesn't even specialise in the cuisine?
BBC Good Food is trying to make their app a subscription based model. I think they are in big trouble.
NYTimes manages it. But then again, it's about 100x better than the BBC version.
Are you sure about NYTimes involvement. I can't see any mention to that anywhere. Its owned by Immediate Media which in turn is owned by a Germany media group.
I noted you said "managed", but I can't see any reference to that.
I think Robert means that NYT manages to have a successful food subscription channel. They do. I subscribe
Yeah, that's the model of the future, videos from professional chefs, monetised recipes, monetised videos and (low) subscription fees. I've been tempted by the £25 annual option, is it worth it? Seems a snip at that price for professional level cooking videos and recipes.
Also key question -
Do they have an imperial to metric converter for measurements? I have no clue what cups are or do.
a cup is 8 fl oz. So half a US pint, or 0.4 an imperial pint.
PS The quality of the recipes is uniformly high. I don't watch the videos, but just follow the recipes (the first time, adapt to my own taste thereafter). Not all are do-agains, but a very high percentage are.
The comments section on the recipes resembles PB at times, and you sometimes realize the username of the person criticizing elements of the recipe is themselves a well known chef.
Though the best comments are always the ones that go something like this - "I didn't use chicken but goat, and substituted beets for potatoes and vinegar for wine. I also boiled rather than broiled the meat. This recipe sucks."
I once read a lengthy online review of an excellent fish restaurant by someone who hated fish, and thought it disgraceful that the venue in question didn't offer meat options. He gave it one star and pledged never to visit it again!
I have no sympathy with that review writer. However, I do think that fish restaurants, even renowned ones, should have a least a couple of meat dishes on the menu, to accommodate larger parties where there is likely to be one or two who are not that keen on fish.
Bloody fussy eaters should try more stuff. Bound to be some seafood they like if they'd only try it.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says the UK is supplying Ukraine with light anti-armour defensive weapon systems and has invited his Russian counterpart to visit London amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
It's sobering to realise that in November we were all debating whether a Labour poll lead was possible in 2021.
If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
Not quite now - after 1 April please so my bet drops in.
Mine too actually. But, you know, money isn't everything.
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
At some point you may discover the damage that Boris is doing to your party. If you a losing the Red Wall seats and your safe seats what have you got left.
Epping Forest would stay Tory.
Basically virtually every Tory Remain seat would go Labour or LD on today's polls, and almost all the RedWall seats the Tories won in 2019 would go back to Labour.
Only seats certain to stay Tory are Tory held seats which had Tory voteshares of over 60% in 2019 and voted Leave
Libdem down three… but…. There’s not even enough of us to party on that industrial scale.
ANOTHER ROUGUE POLL it’s a whole batch of rough polls klaxon noise from me. 🤬
Cra crap crap crap crap crap crap crap
I think the pollings crap.
I can explain it. The uniqueness of the situation their polling process can’t handle.
Libdems double digits right not sinking now ignore rougue polls! I know better than they do. Libdems take Tory votes in reality, in ways Labour can’t. Therefore these polls not realistic
☹️
The list of Famous Rules, continued.....
Rule 4: A rogue poll is any poll where you don't like the result.
I think moon unit is probably correct that, if an election were to be held, the libdems would end up in double figures. But I think that's more the consequence of tactical voting, rather than a great swell of support for them.
If a 13pt lead for Labour gives them a majority of two seats, the ludicrous new boundaries are even worse then I thought. Which absolute idiot came up with them? One Jeremy Mander Esq?
If a 13pt lead for Labour gives them a majority of two seats, the ludicrous new boundaries are even worse then I thought. Which absolute idiot came up with them? One Jeremy Mander Esq?
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
The proper interim PM situation. Mark Spencer, Dominic Raab, Graham Brady, Sajid Javid, JR-M, possibly Gove if he doesn’t stand.
Am on all of these for pennies in the Next PM market (not the next Tory leader market).
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
At some point you may discover the damage that Boris is doing to your party. If you a losing the Red Wall seats and your safe seats what have you got left.
Epping Forest would stay Tory.
Basically virtually every Tory Remain seat would go Labour or LD on today's polls, and almost all the RedWall seats the Tories won in 2019 would go back to Labour.
Only seats certain to stay Tory are Tory held seats which had Tory voteshares of over 60% in 2019 and voted Leave
Which means the actual number of MPs the Tory party will have will be even less than the estimate because while the predictions are given the Labour party their likely Home County wins it's not given the Lib Dems their likely gains.
If a 13pt lead for Labour gives them a majority of two seats, the ludicrous new boundaries are even worse then I thought. Which absolute idiot came up with them? One Jeremy Mander Esq?
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
The proper interim PM situation. Mark Spencer, Dominic Raab, Graham Brady, Sajid Javid, JR-M, possibly Gove if he doesn’t stand.
Am on all of these for pennies in the Next PM market (not the next Tory leader market).
If a 13pt lead for Labour gives them a majority of two seats, the ludicrous new boundaries are even worse then I thought. Which absolute idiot came up with them? One Jeremy Mander Esq?
Even on the new boundaries on today's Redfield the Labour and SNP combined total of MPs however would be 381, not a million miles from the 418 seats New Labour won in 1997. The Tory forecast of 233 could also fall below 200 as in 1997 with tactical voting.
So, a question for PB's animal squad: yesterday the little 'un and I were walking through the woods in the village, past an area of animal burrows. In one, we found a curled up squirrel. It looked asleep, with no obvious signs of injury.
My assumption is that it was dead, and had been dragged there by an animal. But the way it was curled up didn't look as though it had been dragged.
So do (UK) grey squirrels ever sleep in the ground? It had gone this morning.
I'd remind you all that in the run up to GE2015 it was said on here and elsewhere (by respected people) that the Tories needed a lead of 10% in the popular vote to get a majority of 2.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says the UK is supplying Ukraine with light anti-armour defensive weapon systems and has invited his Russian counterpart to visit London amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
What exactly are 'defensive weapon systems' when they're at home? Shin-pads and barrage balloons?
This is going to be an absolute sh!t-show with Omicron going around.
If I were an athlete competing, I’d want to be there already, in a very strict bubble with one coach and with a stack of Western FFP3 masks in my baggage.
So many athletes are going to end up being forced to isolate with no symptoms, when they are supposed to be competing.
Libdem down three… but…. There’s not even enough of us to party on that industrial scale.
ANOTHER ROUGUE POLL it’s a whole batch of rough polls klaxon noise from me. 🤬
Cra crap crap crap crap crap crap crap
I think the pollings crap.
I can explain it. The uniqueness of the situation their polling process can’t handle.
Libdems double digits right not sinking now ignore rougue polls! I know better than they do. Libdems take Tory votes in reality, in ways Labour can’t. Therefore these polls not realistic
☹️
Not outstanding for LD is it? Perhaps my whole SKS on the 6th floor world picture was mistaken and he has edged up to the 6/7 mezzanine level.
No point trying to placate me that poll has cheesed me off and I’m going to bed early 😤
And miss the mahoosive LD surge from Deltapoll?
And Delta poll:
Lab 41 +1 Con 32 -3 LD 11 +1
Apparently. Can't find conf online.
It raises the question they show 11 and an improvement, how do other polls say the opposite? MOE Vagaries of small sampling?
It’s important for polls to show you going up, good for morale, good for attention and being taken seriously.
Relax, Dominic and Boris, you've just been usurped for the title of Most Outrageously Stupid Lie Ever Told:
The DfE said: “Air cleaning units are not needed in the vast majority of classrooms – only where there is poor ventilation that cannot be easily improved. Based on feedback from schools that there are only a small number of cases where good ventilation is not possible, we are supplying up to 8,000 air cleaning units from this week.”
I'd remind you all that in the run up to GE2015 it was said on here and elsewhere (by respected people) that the Tories needed a lead of 10% in the popular vote to get a majority of 2.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
Course Scotland was an irrelevance to Cameron as the Tories won exactly 1 MP in Scotland in 2005 and exactly 1 MP in Scotland in 2010 and exactly 1 MP in Scotland in 2015.
Scotland makes a huge difference to Labour chances of a majority however as Labour won 41 seats in Scotland in 2010 but only 1 seat in Scotland in 2019.
Plus of course Cameron failed to get a majority in 2010 even if he scraped a majority in 2015
If a 13pt lead for Labour gives them a majority of two seats, the ludicrous new boundaries are even worse then I thought. Which absolute idiot came up with them? One Jeremy Mander Esq?
UNS has been fading for a number of elections. I imagine it will continue to do so. The bulk of the marginals are in the North now. Which is where the Tories are polling poorest. On those figures we would most likely see some previously unthinkable Labour gains. And some surprising Tory holds. All part of the ebb and flow. I'd be stunned if it were two. Or even close to.
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
The proper interim PM situation. Mark Spencer, Dominic Raab, Graham Brady, Sajid Javid, JR-M, possibly Gove if he doesn’t stand.
Am on all of these for pennies in the Next PM market (not the next Tory leader market).
Theresa May outside chance ?
I think the decision would be made by the cabinet collectively, so unlikely. They’ll take soundings of who among themselves is running, might run, and definitely not running, and nominate someone from the latter group.
TM might be worth pennies at long odds though, as would any current or former Cabinet member in the Commons.
This polling shows quite clearly that the Tories are heading for big losses to Labour in London in May but the results may not be so bad in the locals elsewhere. Starmer is still very much a North London Labour leader with his strongest appeal in the capital.
If Labour want a leader who can really appeal in the North and Midlands (and not just because he is not Boris), they still probably need Burnham
No, presenting it like this is giving you a false sense of security
London +42 South +39 North +43 Midlands +45 Scotland +64
Starmer is only getting that because Boris is currently unpopular, he is still only popular in London.
If Boris becomes popular again or Sunak replaces him and the Tories get a bound then the North and Midlands will likely shift back in the Tory direction again.
You've put your finger on the essential point. Boris's net approval ratings are bad only because he is unpopular. If he gets popular again he will get more popular.
As always, I'm astonished you don't charge people for the service you provide here.
Not necessarily. They are discussing relative approval. An improvement in the Tories’ performance alone does not necessarily mean they get more popular relative to Labour.
Thank you for your comment.
The fact that you disagree with my statement that "If he gets popular again he will get more popular" is just one further indication of Chris's Law of the Internet - that no matter how self-evidently true a statement is, someone on the Internet will disagree with it.
Thank you so much. ;-)
I didn't disagree with it..
Well, you said "Not necessarily" in response to "If he gets popular again he will get more popular."
I think it would be fair to put down "I didn't disagree with it" as a further vindication of Chris's Law, in the sense of denying what's self-evident.
Please feel free to carry on adding to my collection ...
I took "Boris' net approval rating" to mean compared to Starmer, sorry about that.
But that means you were claiming HYUFD said something that he didn't.
In all this debacle little has been said about Martin Reynolds and his response to his very likely sacking
He could be the silver bullet that takes down Boris or does he try to shield him
Just thinking out aloud !!
I got an email back from Cairns. He (or his lacky) stated he had received a lot of mail critical of Johnson. He said he was waiting for Sue Gray's (spelled Grey on her second mention) report, although to be fair the tone wasn't the usual hand-wringing sychophancy I anticipated. I responded by suggesting he grew a pair on behalf of the Conservative Party and the nation and send a letter to Brady.
Beth Rigby on @SkyNews just reported she now has a second senior source inside No. 10 who backs Cummings' account, that Johnson was warned about the party he claims he knew nothing of and didn't realise was a party. This means PM flat-out lied to Parliament (and to his own MPs). https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1483134113171312641
Anyone got any interesting bets on next PM - have a feeling that if Johnson is forced out he won’t be prepared to hang around for Tory leadership contest.
The proper interim PM situation. Mark Spencer, Dominic Raab, Graham Brady, Sajid Javid, JR-M, possibly Gove if he doesn’t stand.
Am on all of these for pennies in the Next PM market (not the next Tory leader market).
Theresa May outside chance ?
I think the decision would be made by the cabinet collectively, so unlikely. They’ll take soundings of who among themselves is running, might run, and definitely not running, and nominate someone from the latter group.
TM might be worth pennies at long odds though, as would any current or former Cabinet member in the Commons.
The Queen will expect to appoint a caretaker who is definitely not interested in running. We have an interesting situation where the deputy PM is Raab and may be interested in running.
Lord Salisbury was considered for caretaker when Churchill had a big stroke and Eden was undergoing an operation. 1953.
I don't think Johnson will flounce like this. The pressure that the establishment will bring to bear to stop him doing so would be awesome. He could certainly expect the knighthood for being an ex-PM to be, erm, somewhat delayed.
When I lived in BC, one of the Seattle channels used to play the US National anthem at closedown over footage of fighter jets. Bloody liberal Remoaner GB News.
Beth Rigby on @SkyNews just reported she now has a second senior source inside No. 10 who backs Cummings' account, that Johnson was warned about the party he claims he knew nothing of and didn't realise was a party. This means PM flat-out lied to Parliament (and to his own MPs). https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1483134113171312641
I'd remind you all that in the run up to GE2015 it was said on here and elsewhere (by respected people) that the Tories needed a lead of 10% in the popular vote to get a majority of 2.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
Back to the top of the Mail's coverage for Cummings, just when the headlines were supposed to Operation Big Dog today, destroying the BBC and sending migrants to Africa. He knows what he's doing with these timings, and he's also mentioned more photos, which under what looks like his clearing-house modus operandi, he can get others to pass on at any time before the Gray report is itself published.
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
At some point you may discover the damage that Boris is doing to your party. If you a losing the Red Wall seats and your safe seats what have you got left.
Epping Forest would stay Tory.
Basically virtually every Tory Remain seat would go Labour or LD on today's polls, and almost all the RedWall seats the Tories won in 2019 would go back to Labour.
Only seats certain to stay Tory are Tory held seats which had Tory voteshares of over 60% in 2019 and voted Leave
I'm pleased the penny's dropped. I don't mean that patronisingly.
BBC Food/Goodfood is an interesting one - I think they're both not long for this world. They're both being destroyed by YouTubers who have monetised their channels with adverts and click through revenue. I was watching a video for making some kind of Japanese beef, it had a few ads that I just lived with and it also had affiliate links to all of the equipment used in the video in the description where the recipe ingredients are typed out. I had a look and the chef probably makes somewhere in the region of $20-30k per month in advertising plus whatever he gets from click through. That's just one moderately successful chef specialising in Japanese dishes. He does them really well though and shows the exact method of how to make it well. Static web pages will never do that very well.
I don't see how BBC Food can compete with these people on any kind of scale, there's no way they can buy up the channels, they could hire chefs and monetise the videos but to get all kinds of cuisines they'd need an army of them and the channel just becomes cluttered or they need a network and there's no guarantee that they would be able to get their subscribers to cross subscribe.
In an age where my phone has got an almost 7" screen and there's chefs on YouTube offering advertising funded masterclasses why would I bother with a BBC Food written recipe from a chef who doesn't even specialise in the cuisine?
BBC Good Food is trying to make their app a subscription based model. I think they are in big trouble.
NYTimes manages it. But then again, it's about 100x better than the BBC version.
Are you sure about NYTimes involvement. I can't see any mention to that anywhere. Its owned by Immediate Media which in turn is owned by a Germany media group.
I noted you said "managed", but I can't see any reference to that.
I think Robert means that NYT manages to have a successful food subscription channel. They do. I subscribe
Yeah, that's the model of the future, videos from professional chefs, monetised recipes, monetised videos and (low) subscription fees. I've been tempted by the £25 annual option, is it worth it? Seems a snip at that price for professional level cooking videos and recipes.
Also key question -
Do they have an imperial to metric converter for measurements? I have no clue what cups are or do.
a cup is 8 fl oz. So half a US pint, or 0.4 an imperial pint.
PS The quality of the recipes is uniformly high. I don't watch the videos, but just follow the recipes (the first time, adapt to my own taste thereafter). Not all are do-agains, but a very high percentage are.
That first line is simply gibberish to me, some US sites have got metric conversion buttons and I'd rather not write a script to do it.
A cup is 0.237 liters
Which is fine, yet how does one weigh 0.237L of bread flour? I wonder if they've got a free trial, I'd just like to see if I can toggle the recipes to metric. I won't use it otherwise.
Get a set of cup measures.
That's extra washing up, I can set my big mixing bowl from my kenwood on my digital scales and just add something in, tare it and then add the next thing and so on then set it to mix for as long as it needs.
For many recipes, it does not particularly matter how big a cup is because it is ratios that matter, eg cups of flour to cups of milk.
ETA pointless anecdote: my grandfather was an army cook during the 39-45 misunderstandings, and I once saw his recipe book (alas, long since lost and probably thrown away). The question would now be, how big is an imperial bucket?
This is just the Sonia Khan story recycled, yet again. Far too much credence is being given to one SPAD's tales of drinking culture at No. 10. She was at No. 10 relatively briefly before Cummings marched her out, though she'd been in Whitehall a few years. There's little corroboration of a long-standing drinking culture at No. 10. I have reason to believe it's a relatively recent phenomenon, partly caused by the closure of pubs during lockdown, but also by the appointment of lots of young whizz kids by the Cummings/Johnson regime.
Beth Rigby on @SkyNews just reported she now has a second senior source inside No. 10 who backs Cummings' account, that Johnson was warned about the party he claims he knew nothing of and didn't realise was a party. This means PM flat-out lied to Parliament (and to his own MPs). https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1483134113171312641
Not sure that is conclusive proof. The PM will say he always disagreed it was a party, despite the warnings, therefore of course he did not realise it was a party because it wasn't one.
No-one seems particularly focused that it did not have to be a party to be against the law, it merely had to be not essential for work purposes. I think the open non mandatory invitation in the email is clear proof that the meeting was non essential.
Beth Rigby on @SkyNews just reported she now has a second senior source inside No. 10 who backs Cummings' account, that Johnson was warned about the party he claims he knew nothing of and didn't realise was a party. This means PM flat-out lied to Parliament (and to his own MPs). https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1483134113171312641
This is just the Sonia Khan story recycled, yet again. Far too much credence is being given to one SPAD's tales of drinking culture at No. 10. She was at No. 10 relatively briefly before Cummings marched her out, though she'd been in Whitehall a few years. There's little corroboration of a long-standing drinking culture at No. 10. I have reason to believe it's a relatively recent phenomenon, partly caused by the closure of pubs during lockdown, but also by the appointment of lots of young whizz kids by the Cummings/Johnson regime.
As someone who went to a few Downing Street events under Dave, there really wasn't that much of a drinking culture, there'd be a bottle of wine/etc that four people might share, they really didn't have the time or energy to go out on regular benders, plus Dave had a young family upstairs, he was keen to spend time with them, and everyone buggered off early into the night.
This is just the Sonia Khan story recycled, yet again. Far too much credence is being given to one SPAD's tales of drinking culture at No. 10. She was at No. 10 relatively briefly before Cummings marched her out, though she'd been in Whitehall a few years. There's little corroboration of a long-standing drinking culture at No. 10. I have reason to believe it's a relatively recent phenomenon, partly caused by the closure of pubs during lockdown, but also by the appointment of lots of young whizz kids by the Cummings/Johnson regime.
As someone who went to a few Downing Street events under Dave, there really wasn't that much of a drinking culture, there'd be a bottle of wine/etc that four people might share, they really didn't have the time or energy to go out on regular benders, plus Dave had a young family upstairs, he was keen to spend time with them, and everyone buggered off early into the night.
Just discovered the No.10 press secretary is one Sophie True. "Wisdom" is ironic, even without the surname.
At least we can be sure Johnson has a sense of humour. A Dick Head of the Met, a suit Case head of No 10, and now Ms True. The only surprise is he did not make Phil McCann a Petrol Supply Tsar.
I'd remind you all that in the run up to GE2015 it was said on here and elsewhere (by respected people) that the Tories needed a lead of 10% in the popular vote to get a majority of 2.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
Yep. Did it with a small swing TO Labour in E+W as well. UNS really isn't a thing anymore.
Back to the top of the Mail's coverage for Cummings, just when the headlines were supposed to Operation Big Dog today, destroying the BBC and sending migrants to Africa. He knows what he's doing with these timings, and he's also mentioned more photos, which under what looks like his clearing-house modus operandi, he can get others to pass on at any time before the Gray report is itself published.
My take is, Cummings blogs something that is pretty much ignored, a few days later Norman (we are indebted to Leon for naming the Invisible Assailant holding all the exhibits) releases items, said exhibits, to prove the uncorrugated stuff Cummings blogging about is true.
The "Boris Question" on the ballot for Tory MPs and members seems to be boiling down to something rather familiar. It's either Leave or Remain & Reform. The latter being that he stays but on the condition he becomes a "Better Boris". Cummings again running the Leave campaign.
Back to the top of the Mail's coverage for Cummings, just when the headlines were supposed to Operation Big Dog today, destroying the BBC and sending migrants to Africa. He knows what he's doing with these timings, and he's also mentioned more photos, which under what looks like his clearing-house modus operandi, he can get others to pass on at any time before the Gray report is itself published.
No Malmsy. If this were real elections in Tory areas who don’t like labour, Libdems would get the votes the opinion polls ain’t acknowledging. I’m sure of it.
I think I’m sure of it. Pollsters earn money for being clever about this, I need to respect that.
Well, I'm in a seat (SW Surrey, Hunt's seat) which is classically Tory (53%) but has a vigorous LibDem presence (39%). Labour got 8% last time. The recent MRP poll showed Tories down to 43%, LibDems also down to 29, and Labour up to 22. But I don't think most of this is a Labour surge - what it chiefly shows is the huge extent of tactical voting by people who are actually Labour supporters. Asked in a mid-term poll, they truthfully say they support Labour. At election time, after delivery of 20 LibDem leaflets, many swing tactically. So you're right that there's plenty of potential for LibDem votes where it matters, though not all of them are necessarily devotees of Ed Davey.
What the LibDems need to do to have a shot at winning seats like this is (a) focus ruthlessly on the winnable seats (b) treat Labour and Green voters in those seats with respect ("Please lend us your votes", not "Your party is hopeless") and (c) try to be quietly helpful in local elections rather than seek to get 100% of the non-Tory seats. Labour should do exactly the same in reverse, and we're all in business.
I see Ken Livingstone is joining the Greens, by the way.
This is just the Sonia Khan story recycled, yet again. Far too much credence is being given to one SPAD's tales of drinking culture at No. 10. She was at No. 10 relatively briefly before Cummings marched her out, though she'd been in Whitehall a few years. There's little corroboration of a long-standing drinking culture at No. 10. I have reason to believe it's a relatively recent phenomenon, partly caused by the closure of pubs during lockdown, but also by the appointment of lots of young whizz kids by the Cummings/Johnson regime.
As someone who went to a few Downing Street events under Dave, there really wasn't that much of a drinking culture, there'd be a bottle of wine/etc that four people might share, they really didn't have the time or energy to go out on regular benders, plus Dave had a young family upstairs, he was keen to spend time with them, and everyone buggered off early into the night.
So you're confirming that pretty much the same thing, with the same format, happened under Cameron. Cameron himself may not have stayed, but nobody is accusing Boris of staying either.
Beth Rigby on @SkyNews just reported she now has a second senior source inside No. 10 who backs Cummings' account, that Johnson was warned about the party he claims he knew nothing of and didn't realise was a party. This means PM flat-out lied to Parliament (and to his own MPs). https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1483134113171312641
I'd remind you all that in the run up to GE2015 it was said on here and elsewhere (by respected people) that the Tories needed a lead of 10% in the popular vote to get a majority of 2.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
Yep
Which PBer was saying yesterday that the lack of Sunday paper exclusives on Peppa Pig's Piss Ups was not a sign this was over by a long shot?
This is just the Sonia Khan story recycled, yet again. Far too much credence is being given to one SPAD's tales of drinking culture at No. 10. She was at No. 10 relatively briefly before Cummings marched her out, though she'd been in Whitehall a few years. There's little corroboration of a long-standing drinking culture at No. 10. I have reason to believe it's a relatively recent phenomenon, partly caused by the closure of pubs during lockdown, but also by the appointment of lots of young whizz kids by the Cummings/Johnson regime.
As someone who went to a few Downing Street events under Dave, there really wasn't that much of a drinking culture, there'd be a bottle of wine/etc that four people might share, they really didn't have the time or energy to go out on regular benders, plus Dave had a young family upstairs, he was keen to spend time with them, and everyone buggered off early into the night.
So you're confirming that pretty much the same thing, with the same format, happened under Cameron. Cameron himself may not have stayed, but nobody is accusing Boris of staying either.
No, when Dave left, everyone else left, and I'd remind you, Dave hadn't passed laws and regulations banning meeting up and drinking for the country, different times and circumstances.
No Malmsy. If this were real elections in Tory areas who don’t like labour, Libdems would get the votes the opinion polls ain’t acknowledging. I’m sure of it.
I think I’m sure of it. Pollsters earn money for being clever about this, I need to respect that.
Well, I'm in a seat (SW Surrey, Hunt's seat) which is classically Tory (53%) but has a vigorous LibDem presence (39%). Labour got 8% last time. The recent MRP poll showed Tories down to 43%, LibDems also down to 29, and Labour up to 22. But I don't think most of this is a Labour surge - what it chiefly shows is the huge extent of tactical voting by people who are actually Labour supporters. Asked in a mid-term poll, they truthfully say they support Labour. At election time, after delivery of 20 LibDem leaflets, many swing tactically. So you're right that there's plenty of potential for LibDem votes where it matters, though not all of them are necessarily devotees of Ed Davey.
What the LibDems need to do to have a shot at winning seats like this is (a) focus ruthlessly on the winnable seats (b) treat Labour and Green voters in those seats with respect ("Please lend us your votes", not "Your party is hopeless") and (c) try to be quietly helpful in local elections rather than seek to get 100% of the non-Tory seats. Labour should do exactly the same in reverse, and we're all in business.
I see Ken Livingstone is joining the Greens, by the way.
And where are NPxMP's politics these days? Have you repented of your Corbyn fascination?
Vigorous LDs are pretty nasty - I'm sure rentokill can help.
The "Boris Question" on the ballot for Tory MPs and members seems to be boiling down to something rather familiar. It's either Leave or Remain & Reform. The latter being that he stays but on the condition he becomes a "Better Boris". Cummings again running the Leave campaign.
Tories face a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with Rishi, or continued chaos with Boris.
Comments
As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.
Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.
13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.
13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.
Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would the City of London and Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.
Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
If Tory’s tanking nationally, take a little bit from everywhere and add it to libdems, there would be a little uptick not 25% drop.
Something about the tone of his tweets suggests a sort of anti-Boris clearing house. As if he has a sort of franchise, and is the go-to man if you have a leak to contribute and be co-ordinated for you, but don't want to be identified.
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1483111792511496197?s=20
Basically virtually every Tory Remain seat would go Labour or LD on today's polls, and almost all the RedWall seats the Tories won in 2019 would go back to Labour.
Only seats certain to stay Tory are Tory held seats which had Tory voteshares of over 60% in 2019 and voted Leave
Okay so 10% of Tory vote going to someone other than Labour according to Ishmaelz chart, yet same time Libdem drop 25%. What’s that all about then
Am on all of these for pennies in the Next PM market (not the next Tory leader market).
The big change is Scotland is now safe SNP not safe Labour as in 1997
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=30&LAB=43&LIB=9&Reform=4&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.3&SCOTLAB=20.2&SCOTLIB=6.6&SCOTReform=0.9&SCOTGreen=3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
My assumption is that it was dead, and had been dragged there by an animal. But the way it was curled up didn't look as though it had been dragged.
So do (UK) grey squirrels ever sleep in the ground? It had gone this morning.
My boy Dave did it with a 6.5% lead, Scotland was an irrelevance, had Labour won every seat in Scotland, the Tories would have won a majority of 10 instead of 12.
So I'd be wary of sticking 13% Labour leads into electoral calculus and saying no Labour majority.
I will eat a pizza with pineapple on it if Labour don't get a majority with a double digit lead.
https://uggcozy.com/downing-street-staff-started-drinking-at-lunch-as-part-of-drinking-culture/
Just 25% think he should resign, 63% think he should continue as leader. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1483149965849468938/photo/1
If I were an athlete competing, I’d want to be there already, in a very strict bubble with one coach and with a stack of Western FFP3 masks in my baggage.
So many athletes are going to end up being forced to isolate with no symptoms, when they are supposed to be competing.
It’s important for polls to show you going up, good for morale, good for attention and being taken seriously.
You can see me as a slave driver leader 🙂
Can we still say slave driver?
Tory MPs will get to whittle it down to two candidates before the membership gets to vote. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1483150322394714119/photo/1
The DfE said: “Air cleaning units are not needed in the vast majority of classrooms – only where there is poor ventilation that cannot be easily improved. Based on feedback from schools that there are only a small number of cases where good ventilation is not possible, we are supplying up to 8,000 air cleaning units from this week.”
I'm just lost for words.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jan/17/schools-rejecting-offers-to-buy-air-filters-that-limit-covid-parents-say
Scotland makes a huge difference to Labour chances of a majority however as Labour won 41 seats in Scotland in 2010 but only 1 seat in Scotland in 2019.
Plus of course Cameron failed to get a majority in 2010 even if he scraped a majority in 2015
After removing don't knows and would not votes...
Sunak beats Truss 64% to 36%
Sunak beats Hunt 79% to 21%
Truss would beat Hunt by 71% to 29% https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1483150711957381125/photo/1
The bulk of the marginals are in the North now. Which is where the Tories are polling poorest.
On those figures we would most likely see some previously unthinkable Labour gains.
And some surprising Tory holds. All part of the ebb and flow.
I'd be stunned if it were two. Or even close to.
He could be the silver bullet that takes down Boris or does he try to shield him
Just thinking out aloud !!
TM might be worth pennies at long odds though, as would any current or former Cabinet member in the Commons.
1) Unlike the general population, and even Conservative voters, the membership do not want Johnson to resign.
Just 25% think he should go, compared to 25% who think he should continue in the job. https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1483152885164744704/photo/1
Exclusive from @georgegrylls
A minister has openly questioned PM's leadership over No 10 parties
George Freeman told a constituent stories of boozy gatherings had caused serious damage to public trust
'PM & his office should set the highest standards'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1483143393492586499
Lord Salisbury was considered for caretaker when Churchill had a big stroke and Eden was undergoing an operation. 1953.
I don't think Johnson will flounce like this. The pressure that the establishment will bring to bear to stop him doing so would be awesome. He could certainly expect the knighthood for being an ex-PM to be, erm, somewhat delayed.
Bloody liberal Remoaner GB News.
“That’s 500 against Boris. I had just 20 supporting him.”
The latest #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-call-confidence-vote-commons-himself-could-backfire-1405800
Whether No 10 staff got legless all day every day in pre-covid is not the same as whether they did so when it was AGAINST THE FUCKING LAW THEY MADE.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1483155970440187916
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10411585/Dominic-Cummings-ready-oath-accuse-Boris-Johnson-lying-Downing-Street-parties.html
"Wisdom" is ironic, even without the surname.
ETA pointless anecdote: my grandfather was an army cook during the 39-45 misunderstandings, and I once saw his recipe book (alas, long since lost and probably thrown away). The question would now be, how big is an imperial bucket?
My grandfather did just that. I rather liked my grandfather.
Ominous.. oh no sorry Omnium
No-one seems particularly focused that it did not have to be a party to be against the law, it merely had to be not essential for work purposes. I think the open non mandatory invitation in the email is clear proof that the meeting was non essential.
But this does
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-lied-to-parliament-about-downing-street-party-dominic-cummings-says-12518606
Curtains for bojo
Jab with the Dom land with the Norman.
Don’t know if this helps at all.
Go Dom.
What the LibDems need to do to have a shot at winning seats like this is (a) focus ruthlessly on the winnable seats (b) treat Labour and Green voters in those seats with respect ("Please lend us your votes", not "Your party is hopeless") and (c) try to be quietly helpful in local elections rather than seek to get 100% of the non-Tory seats. Labour should do exactly the same in reverse, and we're all in business.
I see Ken Livingstone is joining the Greens, by the way.
Well done to that chap/chapess.
Paul Waugh: bojo might force a HoC vote of conf in himself after Gray reports
Doubt it
PS pm spox person clarifies typo, prev reports should read Save Big Dong
Vigorous LDs are pretty nasty - I'm sure rentokill can help.
Ka -fucking - boom. Second source on Johnson being told this was a party.