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Starmer’s approval ratings are heavily influenced by London – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,806
    I did Worldle once, got it in 3, and I am never doing it again, because that it as good as it gets (without absurd amounts of luck)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022

    Sonia Khan was on the World at One today. She said that people unwilling to participate in the alcohol abuse culture at 10 Downing Street were ostracised or their career suffered.

    That is horrific from an employment law point of view. Straightforward bullying.
    Very difficult too for some folk for immediate health and belief reasons, obvs.

    Edit: and an instant win in any dismissal case esp if the employee can plead e.g. pregnancy or religious or philosophical belief.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I think we need drop bears.

    The security should be handled by salt water crocodiles. The wigs should be replaced with box jellyfish.....
    Just thinking of the punishments for Speakers in the 1660s. Like being dug up if already dead and then executed. Which was better than being hung, castrated, drawn and quartered alive, though. I wonder if some Tories are in that sort of mood at prsent.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    Ah! Interesting. I'm not sure pepper quite replaces chili but that makes sense

    Also, tomatoes and potatoes, which likewise come from the Americas. What did they without them? Tomatoes are especially important in Asian cuisine (and European for that matter)

    In short, imperialism may have been really bad for some conquered countries, but it was fucking great for global cuisine
    That reminds me of the stand up on the silver lining to gender inequality:

    https://youtu.be/bHnfbGyoa6o
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    In which case for maximum lols for you, you need Johnson replaced by someone at least as equally terrible as Johnson. As I am moderately right of centre I hope he is replaced by someone credible
    Yes. He's kicked out, they go for Mogg, GE24 is 97 with chips & brown sauce, I like that very much, Nigel, I must say.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,374
    MattW said:

    A small number of Acorn shares generated my new conservatory...
    Yes, a possibly larger number of Acorn shares has done me well. ;)

    (I think the government made a bad move allowing SoftBank to buy ARM. But I cannot complain, as it made a nice income for me.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    Endillion said:

    A criminal court tries criminals, and a family court tries families. So I've always assumed a kangaroo court tries kangaroos.

    I don't know what a civil court does.
    Tries educationally challenged civits?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    42% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 24% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest lead we have recorded for Sunak over Johnson on this topic. This week’s poll also finds Boris Johnson’s narrowest lead over Rishi Sunak for better Prime Minister among 2019 Conservative voters, with 41% of this demographic saying Johnson and 40% saying Sunak would be better.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/
  • Yes, a possibly larger number of Acorn shares has done me well. ;)

    (I think the government made a bad move allowing SoftBank to buy ARM. But I cannot complain, as it made a nice income for me.)
    Next big decision, do they let Nvidia buy it.
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes. He's kicked out, they go for Mogg, GE24 is 97 with chips & brown sauce, I like that very much, Nigel, I must say.
    You say you would, but the idea of Rees Mogg being PM is as horrific for you as it is for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,067
    edited January 2022

    42% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 24% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest lead we have recorded for Sunak over Johnson on this topic. This week’s poll also finds Boris Johnson’s narrowest lead over Rishi Sunak for better Prime Minister among 2019 Conservative voters, with 41% of this demographic saying Johnson and 40% saying Sunak would be better.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/

    Sunak and Starmer is neck and neck for best PM.

    Sunak 38%, Starmer 37% compared to Starmer 42% Johnson 29%.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited January 2022
    Cummings is back to work - yet again.

    Updated Blog : PM was told about the invite, he knew about the drinks party, he lied to parliament.

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1483129651975315459?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunak and Starmer is neck and neck for best PM.

    Sunak 38%, Starmer 37%
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/
    Is your loyalty t the most disloyal person who has ever been PM wavering? Just a little?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    If I worked directly for Boris Johnson, I would be permanently either drink or hungover. That would be a necessary survival mechanism.
    I know it is tempting to joke about this, but it is actually deadly serious. Alcohol abuse in an individual is tragic and often has life changing consequences. In an organisation such a culture is crippling and means missed goals. At the heart of government it has a detrimental effect on the entire population and on international relations.

    10 Downing Street is not fit for purpose.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    You say you would, but the idea of Rees Mogg being PM is as horrific for you as it is for me.
    That's true. And for 2 years. I couldn't stand that. I take it back.
  • Oooh! Anyone got an email to prove it I wonder?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,460
    I think I might have found a very rare beast indeed. A Tory who sounded both honest and impressive. Tom Tugendhat. I know nothing about him other than he sounds so many heads and shoulders above Nadine Dorries that only a Johnson Tory Party wouldn't notice the oddity of her being in the Cabinet and he not being.

    Could he be a leader or is he too honest and normal for the current bunch of spivs?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Is your loyalty t the most disloyal person who has ever been PM wavering? Just a little?
    Casting lots for the scapegoat, I see.

    https://www.liverpoolmuseums.org.uk/artifact/scapegoat

    Lev 16: 6 And Aaron shall offer his bullock of the sin offering, which is for himself, and make an atonement for himself, and for his house.

    7 And he shall take the two goats, and present them before the Lord at the door of the tabernacle of the congregation.

    8 And Aaron shall cast lots upon the two goats; one lot for the Lord, and the other lot for the scapegoat.

    9 And Aaron shall bring the goat upon which the Lord's lot fell, and offer him for a sin offering.

    10 But the goat, on which the lot fell to be the scapegoat, shall be presented alive before the Lord, to make an atonement with him, and to let him go for a scapegoat into the wilderness.
  • Roger said:

    I think I might have found a very rare beast indeed. A Tory who sounded both honest and impressive. Tom Tugendhat. I know nothing about him other than he sounds so many heads and shoulders above Nadine Dorries that only a Johnson Tory Party wouldn't notice the oddity of her being in the Cabinet and he not being.

    Could he be a leader or is he too honest and normal for the current bunch of spivs?

    I would vote for him if I were still in the party.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited January 2022
    The mood of the nation is clearly very angry, evidenced by the reaction the mps received in their constituencies and the total collapse in the opinion polls

    Meanwhile, Boris and his supporters seem to have come up with the magic formula that by sacking no 10 civil servants and banning booze he will be able to ride out the storm

    What on earth can go wrong

    Boris, if you think sackings will solve this you are living in a fantasy world of your own making, and for once just do the right thing and apologise wholeheartedly, and then resign

    No other action is justified and it is the only tenable action for the country and the party's interest

    The country is politically paralysed until this happens

    And of course @HYUFD will fully support your decision

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Very difficult too for some folk for immediate health and belief reasons, obvs.

    Edit: and an instant win in any dismissal case esp if the employee can plead e.g. pregnancy or religious or philosophical belief.
    This culture of drinking alcohol at lunchtime has disappeared from trade and industry, for the simple reason that it damaged achievement of goals (eg profit, sales etc). Ditto local government, charities and other sectors. People just do not do it. So why has this outdated culture not only survived, but thrived at 10 Downing Street?

    This is not just a BJ issue. Khan says that she is aware that it has existed for 10 to 20 years.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    I've heard of this but never tried it... just had a go, got it in 4.
    I assume it's different for each person?
    The word to guess, you mean? Nope.

    There's an apparently full archive at https://www.devangthakkar.com/wordle_archive/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    This culture of drinking alcohol at lunchtime has disappeared from trade and industry, for the simple reason that it damaged achievement of goals (eg profit, sales etc). Ditto local government, charities and other sectors. People just do not do it. So why has this outdated culture not only survived, but thrived at 19 Downing Street?

    This is not just a BJ issue. Khan says that she is aware that it has existed for 10 to 20 years.
    No 10 not 19 ... but that wouldn't surprise me.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    And Delta poll:

    Lab 41 +1
    Con 32 -3
    LD 11 +1
  • Raise the is the one I have been using
    I tried THOSE.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    One might wish to see something like this as Sue Gray's 'executive summary' but I fear not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited January 2022

    Next big decision, do they let Nvidia buy it.
    Only when there’s a net surplus of RTX 3090Tis in the UK.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Roger said:

    I think I might have found a very rare beast indeed. A Tory who sounded both honest and impressive. Tom Tugendhat. I know nothing about him other than he sounds so many heads and shoulders above Nadine Dorries that only a Johnson Tory Party wouldn't notice the oddity of her being in the Cabinet and he not being.

    Could he be a leader or is he too honest and normal for the current bunch of spivs?

    Tom Tugendhat is 6th place at time of writing: 25/1 to be next Con leader.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    JohnO said:

    And Delta poll:

    Lab 41 +1
    Con 32 -3
    LD 11 +1

    Mayday! Mayday! Mayday!

    And the Midlands split?
  • HYUFD said:

    Sunak and Starmer is neck and neck for best PM.

    Sunak 38%, Starmer 37% compared to Starmer 42% Johnson 29%.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/
    You are getting there
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Bloody hell

    I notice that when I explained about the PM trying to go see the Queen when he might have been infectious and I stopped him, No10 issued a total denial and I was told that ‘Martin is supporting the PM’s denial’. This episode was also witnessed by others who will tell the official inquiry that what I have said is true and the official denials are false.

    Bloody game over if true. Answer to @kinabalu s plea for something beyond parties

    also

    The PM’s PPS invited people to a drinks party.

    The PPS was told to cancel the invite by at least two people.

    He checked with the PM whether the party should go ahead.

    The PM agreed it should.

    They both went to the party.

    It was actually a drinks party.

    The PM told MPs repeatedly that he had no idea about any parties.

    The events of 20 May alone, never mind the string of other events, mean the PM lied to Parliament about parties.

    Not only me but other eyewitnesses who discussed this at the time would swear under oath this is what happened.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    dixiedean said:

    It's sobering to realise that in November we were all debating whether a Labour poll lead was possible in 2021.

    If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Bloody hell

    I notice that when I explained about the PM trying to go see the Queen when he might have been infectious and I stopped him, No10 issued a total denial and I was told that ‘Martin is supporting the PM’s denial’. This episode was also witnessed by others who will tell the official inquiry that what I have said is true and the official denials are false.

    Bloody game over if true. Answer to @kinabalu s plea for something beyond parties

    also

    The PM’s PPS invited people to a drinks party.

    The PPS was told to cancel the invite by at least two people.

    He checked with the PM whether the party should go ahead.

    The PM agreed it should.

    They both went to the party.

    It was actually a drinks party.

    The PM told MPs repeatedly that he had no idea about any parties.

    The events of 20 May alone, never mind the string of other events, mean the PM lied to Parliament about parties.

    Not only me but other eyewitnesses who discussed this at the time would swear under oath this is what happened.
    Just been highlighted on Sky
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    JohnO said:

    Events Parties, dear boy, Events
    Okay that is funny. But I can only like it once.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited January 2022
    That Sunak poll (best PM) might actually change things in the PCP –– suggests there's a stand out candidate. And implies that they'd be better off by far knifing Bozzatron forthwith.

    If it cuts through, and is supported by other polls, I might revise my view that Bunter is going nowhere...
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    42% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 24% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest lead we have recorded for Sunak over Johnson on this topic. This week’s poll also finds Boris Johnson’s narrowest lead over Rishi Sunak for better Prime Minister among 2019 Conservative voters, with 41% of this demographic saying Johnson and 40% saying Sunak would be better.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-17-january-2022/

    Time to quote Leo Durocher: Stick a fork in him; he's done.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    kinabalu said:

    One might wish to see something like this as Sue Gray's 'executive summary' but I fear not.
    It's all a bit silly though isn't it. Ignore how people define party, or the drinks aspect - all that matters is whether these were entirely staff who have been working together all day anyway. This is what this will turn on.
  • Applicant said:

    Time to quote Leo Durocher: Stick a fork in him; he's done.
    Need to be careful when doing that, all that hot fat squirting out....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    Lab + Green at 50 is encouraging.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    And DC final two lines

    There are many other photos of parties after I left yet to appear.

    I’ll say more when SG’s report is published.

    He is toast. Gone by end Jan.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Need to be careful when doing that, all that hot fat squirting out....
    Time to quote Michael Flanders :)

    I'm delirious about our new cooker fitment with the
    Eye-level grill
    This means that without my having to bend down
    The hot fat can squirt straight into my eyes!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not outstanding for LD is it? Perhaps my whole SKS on the 6th floor world picture was mistaken and he has edged up to the 6/7 mezzanine level.
    No point trying to placate me that poll has cheesed me off and I’m going to bed early 😤
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    I wondered if it was too close to some other game and worried about getting legal claims if he tried to turn it into a commercial product, but then i read he has been going after copycats demanding they take down their apps.

    I know the story is supposed to be he made it for his family, but surprised not pay $1 a month and get extra wordles or even an ad or two.
    Isn’t it pretty similar to the tv show lingo?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    dixiedean said:

    An ounce is a handful?
    Feathers? Iron?
    Handful of what?
    Of most baking ingredients, which are near-enough the same density. For most human day-to-day applications close enough is good enough. Encouraging people to obsess over weighing out half a pound of flour to the nearest gram (by giving the ingredient quantity as 225g instead of as 8oz) is entirely unnecessary.

    I see so many baking recipes where you can tell that the measurements have been awkwardly and inconsistently converted from imperial measurements to a pretence of more precise metric measurements and it's just so much simpler and more intuitive to use imperial measurements. And then a lot of baking things make so much more sense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Sandpit said:

    If a week is a long time in politics, two months is close to an eternity!
    Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,629
    Aslan said:

    It's so unnecessary too. Actual policy matters had created a realignment that favoured the Tories with the closest you can get to a permanent majority. And blown over some naff garden parties.
    It’s all so needless and self inflicted. When labour starts to put together a coherent policy Platform then the Tories really are going to be in trouble.
  • There's also a 'interesting' Opinium poll tonight.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    https://www.thenational.scot/news/19852961.edinburgh-crowned-top-city-uk-culture-holidu-reveals/

    Wick doesn't make it into the top 5 - but neither does London. Rather surprisingly, at first sight, No 2 is Pompey - but it does have a lot of museums for its size.

    [Obvs depends on how one defines culture, and the methodology ...]

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176

    There's also a 'interesting' Opinium poll tonight.

    Tory lead?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    kinabalu said:

    Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
    Not quite now - after 1 April please so my bet drops in.
  • Tory lead?
    Well I said to qualify as interesting it had to show a Tory lead and Boris Johnson's rating moving back into net positive territory.
  • kinabalu said:

    Yep, truly exciting times for politics geeks. I am one and I am genuinely excited. I think we all are on here. It's palpable. I can feel the whole board pulsing. Let's have a suitable climax now please! Go, Boris, go now.
    His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
    But what happens if (a) Mr J sits on it and (b) edits it? It does go through him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    rcs1000 said:
    Not if I get to it first. Ridiculous although their failure in Scotland really doesn't help them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    No point trying to placate me that poll has cheesed me off and I’m going to bed early 😤
    And miss the mahoosive LD surge from Deltapoll?

    And Delta poll:

    Lab 41 +1
    Con 32 -3
    LD 11 +1

    Apparently. Can't find conf online.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
    They might not. Things have calmed down a touch during the last few days, give it another two weeks until she completes the report and the scene may look even calmer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400
    MaxPB said:

    Those seem good for yellows rather than greens. I use saner which has worked pretty well for me.
    If your goal is getting it in 4/5, you are best off just having three words that contain the most common 15 letters. That means - most of the time - you'll know all the letters after three guesses. And then it's just an anagram.

    But if you want to push it to 3/4, you need to be a bit smarter and more aggressive.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited January 2022
    DavidL said:

    Not if I get to it first. Ridiculous although their failure in Scotland really doesn't help them.
    Doeasn't it? If that 43% includes a collapse in Scotland of the level of 10-11% locally, and that is a Scottish average, then it concentrates the votes usefully elsewhere.
  • Carnyx said:

    But what happens if (a) Mr J sits on it and (b) edits it? It does go through him.
    He won't get away with concealing the report
  • Stocky said:

    They might not. Things have calmed down a touch during the last few days, give it another two weeks until she completes the report and the scene may look even calmer.
    That's why I think Cummings will want to act sooner, if he has any more to add.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    He won't get away with concealing the report
    Doesn't have to, just sit on it for as long as he can.
  • I will keep updating this as more tables come in, but here is a rough overview of how 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote.



    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1483132346077523968
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    His mps need to act immediately after Sue Gray's report
    His mps need to act immediately (Can't bear that ftfy thing). Gray's report is a figleaf and a nullity and a nonsense and anyone waiting for it is playing the FLSOJ's game.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MaxPB said:

    While that may be true, the metric system makes sense, 1 gram is 1 ml of water at room temperature, essentially. Imperial weights and measures should be consigned to the dustbin of history.
    Room temperature where and at what elevation?

    I once read a lengthy online review of an excellent fish restaurant by someone who hated fish, and thought it disgraceful that the venue in question didn't offer meat options. He gave it one star and pledged never to visit it again!
    I have no sympathy with that review writer. However, I do think that fish restaurants, even renowned ones, should have a least a couple of meat dishes on the menu, to accommodate larger parties where there is likely to be one or two who are not that keen on fish.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited January 2022

    The list of Famous Rules, continued.....

    Rule 4: A rogue poll is any poll where you don't like the result.
    No don’t misunderstand me, I’m not picking and choosing polls I don’t like and saying they are rogue, i’m calling a whole batch of polls rogue. I’m saying if Tories are dropping like this the polling is flawed to plonk it all on Labour and drop Libdems too. It make no sense. The polls should pick it up as it would be in real elections. If in reality Libdem can hover up Disenchanted Tory votes In places Labour can’t, they should be going up a bit not down. Look, this poll puts greens up two and libdems down 3. The Greens party on the M25!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I will keep updating this as more tables come in, but here is a rough overview of how 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote.



    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1483132346077523968

    DK and WNV are very different things
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Of most baking ingredients, which are near-enough the same density. For most human day-to-day applications close enough is good enough. Encouraging people to obsess over weighing out half a pound of flour to the nearest gram (by giving the ingredient quantity as 225g instead of as 8oz) is entirely unnecessary.

    I see so many baking recipes where you can tell that the measurements have been awkwardly and inconsistently converted from imperial measurements to a pretence of more precise metric measurements and it's just so much simpler and more intuitive to use imperial measurements. And then a lot of baking things make so much more sense.
    Just to point out that the Imperial System has gone metric these days with Imperial units now being defined in terms of the Metric system. For example, the inch is now defined as being precisely 25.4mm
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    The list of Famous Rules, continued.....

    Rule 4: A rogue poll is any poll where you don't like the result.
    I think moon unit is probably correct that, if an election were to be held, the libdems would end up in double figures. But I think that's more the consequence of tactical voting, rather than a great swell of support for them.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    Ah! Interesting. I'm not sure pepper quite replaces chili but that makes sense

    Also, tomatoes and potatoes, which likewise come from the Americas. What did they without them? Tomatoes are especially important in Asian cuisine (and European for that matter)

    In short, imperialism may have been really bad for some conquered countries, but it was fucking great for global cuisine
    Not just cuisine, but nutrition too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    MaxPB said:

    Just shift everything to metric (except pints, I'm not losing 68ml of my beer) and people will just get used to it. A handful becomes 125g, rather than whatever an ounce is.
    But it won't be as good. There was something about people's inherent understanding of numbers which found that young children have an inherently logarithmic understanding of numbers, but after a few years of being drilled on the number line at school they start to think about numbers linearly.

    Now the trouble with metric is that the numbers are too large and it just becomes awkward to use and it's more difficult for people to work out variations, because adding an extra 50% to 225g is harder than adding an extra half to 8oz.

    This is also why we need to rebase the currency and abandon decimilisation. Inflation means that the numbers are getting too big, and if you divide your basic unit of currency into more subdivisions then you have a greater range of units of currency that can be used with reasonable numbers depending on the context.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    DK and WNV are very different things
    The spiral of silence says hello.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Endillion said:

    A criminal court tries criminals, and a family court tries families. So I've always assumed a kangaroo court tries kangaroos.

    I don't know what a civil court does.
    There is no swearing and they are all polite.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    That's why I think Cummings will want to act sooner, if he has any more to add.
    He signs off his latest with "I’ll say more when SG’s report is published." I believe bridge players call this finessing her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,067
    edited January 2022
    DavidL said:

    Not if I get to it first. Ridiculous although their failure in Scotland really doesn't help them.
    By contrast if a Sunak led Tories got 38% and Labour got 37%, mirroring the Sunak and Starmer best PM numbers from Redfield this evening, then the Tories would win most seats in a hung parliament but Starmer would likely still be PM if he got SNP confidence and supply.

    As I said before while Labour winning a big majority is near impossible thanks to Scottish SNP MPs, it is actually relatively easy for Starmer to still become UK PM thanks to Scottish SNP MPs
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Yes, a possibly larger number of Acorn shares has done me well. ;)

    (I think the government made a bad move allowing SoftBank to buy ARM. But I cannot complain, as it made a nice income for me.)
    That is what I was alluding to in the previous thread. My remark about "early computers" was more directed at the ICL era and the early mainframes rather than the BBC Micro which was a great success after BBC2's Horizon programme caused a govt panic on the future of IT
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/17/lords-standards-commissioner-launches-inquiry-into-michelle-mone

    This just up: "The House of Lords commissioner for standards has launched an investigation into the Conservative peer Michelle Mone, relating to the PPE company awarded £203m government contracts via the “VIP lane” after she referred it to the Cabinet Office in May 2020."
  • IshmaelZ said:

    He signs off his latest with "I’ll say more when SG’s report is published." I believe bridge players call this finessing her.
    Hmm. Although perhaps SG's report may be sooner than we think.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think moon unit is probably correct that, if an election were to be held, the libdems would end up in double figures. But I think that's more the consequence of tactical voting, rather than a great swell of support for them.
    Moon Unit? Frank Zappa's daughter:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-LArv-sEQU

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    No don’t misunderstand me, I’m not picking and choosing polls I don’t like and saying they are rogue, i’m calling a whole batch of polls rogue. I’m saying if Tories are dropping like this the polling is flawed to plonk it all on Labour and drop Libdems too. It make no sense. The polls should pick it up as it would be in real elections. If in reality Libdem can hover up Disenchanted Tory votes In places Labour can’t, they should be going up a bit not down. Look, this poll puts greens up two and libdems down 3. The Greens party of the M25!
    The LibDems are currently invisible to the man/woman on the street.

    This may be bad media, bad politics or bad Lib Dems.

    But it is the reason they are not profiting from the situation.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think moon unit is probably correct that, if an election were to be held, the libdems would end up in double figures. But I think that's more the consequence of tactical voting, rather than a great swell of support for them.
    And potentially, that's fine for them. Compare '92 and '97; the LibDem vote went down, but their sest count more than doubled.

    (Theory: when Labour are in the doldrums, Lib Dems pick up some of their votes, mostly in places they can't win either. When Conservatives are in trouble, Lib Dems lose useless votes to Labour, whole gaining votes from Conservatives in places they can be competitive. For Lib Dems in particular, where the votes are matters a lot more than their number.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    HYUFD said:



    As I said before while Labour winning a big majority is near impossible thanks to Scottish SNP MPs, it is actually relatively easy for Starmer to still become UK PM thanks to Scottish SNP MPs

    A marriage made in hell if ever there was one..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Just to point out that the Imperial System has gone metric these days with Imperial units now being defined in terms of the Metric system. For example, the inch is now defined as being precisely 25.4mm
    Doesn't matter. My argument is that the Imperial system is best for those circumstances where absolute precision isn't required, so it doesn't matter what the precise definition is, as long as they don't do anything absurd like change an oz to 30g, which would make a difference once you get up to a lb or two.
  • The LibDems are currently invisible to the man/woman on the street.

    This may be bad media, bad politics or bad Lib Dems.

    But it is the reason they are not profiting from the situation.
    Ahem, they profited in Shropshire North.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The spiral of silence says hello.
    Hello back to it, but I definitely WV but DK for whom.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/17/lords-standards-commissioner-launches-inquiry-into-michelle-mone

    This just up: "The House of Lords commissioner for standards has launched an investigation into the Conservative peer Michelle Mone, relating to the PPE company awarded £203m government contracts via the “VIP lane” after she referred it to the Cabinet Office in May 2020."

    Because of Partygate, few people have seemed to notice that last week a judge ruled that two 'VIP lane' PPE contracts had been awarded illegally.

    This looks like another one, and there will be more to come. Bring on dodgycontractgate.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    edited January 2022

    The LibDems are currently invisible to the man/woman on the street.

    This may be bad media, bad politics or bad Lib Dems.

    But it is the reason they are not profiting from the situation.
    No Malmsy. If this were real elections in Tory areas who don’t like labour, Libdems would get the votes the opinion polls ain’t acknowledging. I’m sure of it.

    I think I’m sure of it. Pollsters earn money for being clever about this, I need to respect that.
  • If Manchester United had any dignity they would sack Nemanja Matic, they don't need to become the football club choice of the antivaxxers. Hopefully the PL will deduct points from Manchester United if they don't sack him.

    Man Utd's Nemanja Matic sends message to Novak Djokovic after deportation "shame"

    Manchester United midfielder Nemanja Matic has shared a message of strong support for world No. 1 tennis star Novak Djokovic after he was deported from Australia on Sunday


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/novak-djokovic-deported-nemanja-matic-25962721
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    IshmaelZ said:

    DK and WNV are very different things
    The large proportion of DKs and WNVs should worry Labour. If they go back to the Tories then you're looking at an unstable Labour minority government.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Hmm. Although perhaps SG's report may be sooner than we think.
    Estimates are getting longer not shorter, the pressure on her must be so intense there is always the temptation to buy another 24 hours, she has 100 people to interview all of whom can play the Covid card on her as an evasion technique. In fact I think someone should put up markets as to whether she reports by month end, or indeed ever.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited January 2022
    Strange how both Starmer and Johnson seem to be relatively more popular / less unpopular in London. Johnson was only -13 in London according to the previous thread header, better than elsewhere.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    Evening all :)

    As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.

    Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.

    13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.

    13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.

    Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    rcs1000 said:
    There are only so many votes Labour can pile up in Merseyside, so Labour would have to be outperforming UNS in those circumstances.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    edited January 2022

    The large proportion of DKs and WNVs should worry Labour. If they go back to the Tories then you're looking at an unstable Labour minority government.
    I'm not sure about that. It's a process, isn't it? Labour has done little yet, policy-wise, to attract alienated Tory voters, and it's a wrench for them to break away from BJ, so DK/WNV is a half-way house. Once Labour comes up with a reasonably attractive offer (assuming they do), they should be able to attract a reasonably proportion of the DK/WNVs. In that context, for Labour to be polling 43% in one poll tonight is pretty good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,067
    edited January 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As far as Starmer is concerned, across London we strew rose petals in his path where'er he strides. He is lauded from every rooftop and worshipped as a political demigod.

    Sorry, that's my contribution to tonight's Exaggeration Class.

    13 point lead with Redfield Wilton but only 9 with Delta Poll - it shows how quickly things have changed when a 9% Labour lead is regarded as a decent poll for the Conservatives.

    13% swing with R&W but just 11% with Delta - either would end Conservative rule and the former would likely provide Labour with a majority.

    Those having a pop at the LD numbers conveniently forget a) tactical voting and b) the LDs will probably put effort into a maximum of 50 seats next time. As we saw in 1997, a falling LD number doesn't stop the party winning seats and with Delta it's still a 5% swing from Conservative to LD.

    Which would see Dominic Raab lose Esher and Walton to the LDs for starters.

    Indeed on today's polls Kensington and Chelsea would have all Labour MPs as would the City of London and Westminster and Esher and Walton would have a LD MP.

    Not one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country would have a Tory MP for the first time ever
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Carnyx said:

    Doesn't have to, just sit on it for as long as he can.
    Wont be long before he gets up to go to the wine fridge though.
This discussion has been closed.