New Red wall constituency poll has CON 15% behind – politicalbetting.com

System · January 2022

New Red wall constituency poll has CON 15% behind – politicalbetting.com

EXCLUSiVE: Mail on Sunday poll gives Labour a 16 point lead in Red Wall constituencies. Boris could lose more than 100 seats. Full details in tomorrow’s paper.

Read the full story here

DavidL · January 2022

So have we lost the fourth test yet?

Edit, apparently not, doesn't start to the 5th.

Leon · January 2022

fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!

eek · January 2022

The cause of this was binning HS2E and NPR.

However, reintroducing them won’t be enough now as those Red Wall seats will want instant benefits alongside the obvious cuts being reversed

DavidL · January 2022

On topic this kind of mid term polling can be misleading. Its a very big shift in the last month but I am not sure how much it actually tells us about the next election.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!

I have seen reported they have tested everybody twice I think. Is there any reports of new rounds of vaccinations? We know their vaccines are duffers, but against not Omicron, they do mount some defence at least for a short while.

rcs1000 · January 2022

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!

Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)

OnlyLivingBoy · January 2022

Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)

The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2022

DavidL said:
On topic this kind of mid term polling can be misleading. Its a very big shift in the last month but I am not sure how much it actually tells us about the next election.

Ironically the marginals polling in September/October 2007 was pretty accurate, the Tories the largest party in a hung parliament.

But we remember that poll for stopping the election that never was.

Leon · January 2022

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)

Well yes, I agree a total quarantine of society as you sketch could "work", but is that practically and humanly possible, even in a police state like China? There must be a limit to what people will accept

And even then all it does is delay the surge. And you might have to do it nationwide, so the economy collapses

I guess you could argue that China could do this until special Omicron vaccines arrive, or brilliant antivirals, but that's an awful lot of hopecasting not forecasting

Could be civilisation is actually fucked this time. Happy New Year! Let's all do ayahuasca

HYUFD · January 2022

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

Hence Patel as Home Secretary is opposing vehemently any such policy. Truss is pushing it and she would go down like a lead balloon in the redwall.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2022

@bigjohnowls

Please explain

TimT · January 2022

Of course, as soon as I post a longer screed, New Thread is announced.

TimT Posts: 4,938
4:29PM edited 4:30PM
Foxy said:
I think you are making a fundamental error. It is not lockdowns that cause "missed diagnoses, missed treatment and missed help and support". It is an uncontrolled pandemic taking up surge capacity in the NHS.

For example if our breast surgery unit is converted to a medical ward (as per previous waves) then breast cancer treatment is delayed. Nothing to do with lockdowns, purely because the surge capacity of the NHS is by redeployment staff from other duties, particularly planned surgery.

Yep. This is currently happening in the rural town hospital in Pennsylvania where my wife works (as an anaesthetist - UK meaning of the word). The hospital is at 110% capacity, with more than 60% of beds are taken up with COVID patients. Oxygen cylinders are cluttering all the corridors. The next hospital bed is a gurney in a corridor surrounded by drapes.

EDIT PA is still seeing a larger percentage of Delta patients than the UK. Omicron is displacing delta, but there is still a lot of delta around in the smaller rural towns and villages.

DecrepiterJohnL · January 2022

As suggested in the previous thread, the prospect of losing power, and even more so, losing their seats, as this poll implies, means it is squeaky bum time for Conservatives. But unless there is an alternative leader who can rescue their seats, they will not act to depose Boris.

BigRich · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:
It's like Deja Vu all over again, again

China is building massive hospitals in 48 hours

"西安市航空學院連夜建方仓醫院

Xi'an Aeronautical College built Fangcang Hospital overnight"

https://twitter.com/yulin18494807/status/1477208077787090946?s=20

And the lockdown in Xi'an sounds fucking brutal

"Comer una vez cada tres días, el drama de estar confinado en Xian por un brote de coronavirus ➡ Desde la pasada semana, las autoridades de China ordenaron el confinamiento de la ciudad de trece millones de habitantes por un repunte de casos de covid-19

Eating once every three days, the drama of being confined in Xian by a coronavirus outbreak ➡ Since last week, the Chinese authorities ordered the confinement of the city of thirteen million inhabitants due to a rebound in cases of covid- 19"

https://twitter.com/larazon_es/status/1477304867106562051?s=20

WTF is going on in China? Are they really doing this in reaction to "150 cases a day"??
Lockdown is only going to work on Omicron if total and early. Once the sparks have set the fire going, it is too late, as we will see.
Its supposed Delta, not Omicron..

Officials say the outbreak is the Delta variant of Covid and have not mentioned Omicron.

State media have been reporting this week that Xi'an is facing a "dual epidemic" as there have been "several reported cases of haemorrhagic fever, a natural epidemic disease with a high fatality rate". However, this is reported as being a "common" seasonal disease in northern China, and predominantly concentrated in rural areas.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59743487
If Delta, then a better chance of it working. Totalitarian regimes are abhorrent, but can enforce public health measures far more strictly.

While there is a certain karma about it exploding in China, it is not the fault of hundreds of millions of ordinary Chinese.
There's a whole swirl of rumours. It's Delta. It's a "hantavirus" plus Covid. It's haemmorhagic fever plus Covid (great!). It's Omicron leaked from a flight "from Pakistan"

My wild guess looking at these videos is: Omicron. They've got a population with very little natural immunity, they know their vaccines are iffy (and 2 isn't enough) they know Omicron infects EVERYONE very soon, and they known there will be lots and lots of patients, even if fewer die than with Delta

But we shall see. Such a bleak echo of 2020
Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown.

I think the most 'innocent' and likely reason, is the Crinieres Leadership what this over with and out the way before the winter Olympics and assonated media in a month, so are going hard (Viagra Hard as somebody described it) now, in the hope it they can relax soon.

More scary synariaose are also possible.

MaxPB · January 2022

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)

Yes, it's absolutely possible in a police state. Doing it in a country like the UK seems impossible. People wouldn't live under those conditions and would rather take their chances with the virus, any party which proposed an end to those conditions would win an election and MPs in that party would also be under a lot of pressure.

Democracy makes getting the R of Omicron under 1 impossibile.

WhisperingOracle · January 2022

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
Well yes, I agree a total quarantine of society as you sketch could "work", but is that practically and humanly possible, even in a police state like China? There must be a limit to what people will accept

And even then all it does is delay the surge. And you might have to do it nationwide, so the economy collapses

I guess you could argue that China could do this until special Omicron vaccines arrive, or brilliant antivirals, but that's an awful lot of hopecasting not forecasting

Could be civilisation is actually fucked this time. Happy New Year! Let's all do ayahuasca

I'm not sure that we could jump to that kind of conclusion.

Conversely, in the West, and in much of the rest of the world, we're still in a much better position on Omicron that many thought we would be a few weeks ago.

Also, war between Russia and America hasn't broken out yet.

Rejoice !

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

HYUFD said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
Hence Patel as Home Secretary is opposing vehemently any such policy. Truss is pushing it and she would go down like a lead balloon in the redwall.

Patel is wrong

Leon · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.

Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20

OldKingCole · January 2022

HYUFD said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
Hence Patel as Home Secretary is opposing vehemently any such policy. Truss is pushing it and she would go down like a lead balloon in the redwall.

Patel is the ultimate example of ‘pull up the ladder, Jack!’ And I’m sure the Red Wall would not be happy.

But if they were to swing away from the Tories, as a result of this policy, then one would have to have a heart of stone. Etc.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20

"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."

dixiedean · January 2022

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

The latter.
Heard more than one say they voted Brexit to kick the P***s out.
Not heard a single one say that the entire youth of India being able to get a 3 year work visa was their primary motivation.

eek · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone

Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?

Foxy · January 2022

Interesting graphs on this twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/graphocalypse/status/1477385207737200643?t=of0a2J_lqCBDBEuGjmTVMA&s=19

It looks as if the cases per admission ratio isn't very different to Delta in the autumn. Presumably the drop in the ratio in September is when schools went back.

MaxPB · January 2022

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20

Yeah semiconductor shortages are going to get worse for some basic chips. Higher end stuff will be fine as it's mostly done in Taiwan, Japan, Korea and the US. Car companies will be squealing in a few months, especially European ones as the Japanese government has got Japanese companies to prioritise domestic companies.

dixiedean · January 2022

This poll will turn on the detail of what constitutes "Red Wall".
If it is just "the North" then it is bad, but not terminal.

IshmaelZ · January 2022

On topic lab Maj 11/2 is value

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!

China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

More videos about this covid quarantine camp which will hold more than 10 000 people.
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1477200140247175169?s=20

WhisperingOracle · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."

I find it staggering that a country as technologically advanced as China now is could have produced such ineffectual vaccines, if that really is true. What was the process behind that - and why did they produce the inferior vaccine forms that you mentioned ?

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?

Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here

HYUFD · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone

Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
I find it staggering that a country as technologically advanced as China now is could have produced such ineffectual vaccines, if that really is true. What was the process behind that ?

Because mRNA vaccines are extremely new and very tricky to scale. And then they rushed their vaccine because they wanted to deploy soft power, same as Russia. What it appears is they went with a well know sensible approach, but it turns out it just isn't that effective against COVID. Remember the West has had a load of busts as well for similar reasons.

HYUFD · January 2022

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
Hence Patel as Home Secretary is opposing vehemently any such policy. Truss is pushing it and she would go down like a lead balloon in the redwall.

Patel is the ultimate example of ‘pull up the ladder, Jack!’ And I’m sure the Red Wall would not be happy.

But if they were to swing away from the Tories, as a result of this policy, then one would have to have a heart of stone. Etc.

Patel is in tune with the redwall and Tory membership on this not Truss. This would boost Patel's leadership chances

Charles · January 2022

FPT

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid
He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

They're so predictable.
And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

Where do you draw the line.

Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

(*) Under your previous iteration
That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
You really don't live in the real world.
The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
The issue is capacity management

Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.

That becomes an ethical issue.

You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

WhisperingOracle · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
I find it staggering that a country as technologically advanced as China now is could have produced such ineffectual vaccines, if that really is true. What was the process behind that ?
Because mRNA vaccines are extremely new and very tricky to scale. And then they rushed their vaccine because they wanted to deploy soft power, same as Russia.

But AstraZeneca, and some others, aren't mRNA, no ?

TimT · January 2022

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20

I am surprised they haven't simply welded the workers into their factories, provided them with food and bunks, and kept them all working.

Foxy · January 2022

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?

It's almost as if "No deal is better than a bad deal". Has anyone informed Ms Truss of that Brexiteer aphorism?

MaxPB · January 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.

The problem for China is that even at a rate of 1/50 being hospitalised rather than 1/20 for Delta that's still a disaster. Chinese population immunity levels are disastrously low. It's a paper tiger here because for 35m or so people the hospitalisation rate is ~1/400 for a further 13m it's ~1/200 and for the rest pretty low because of age stratification in our vaccination programme. In China Omicron is a huge threat with how well it spreads despite the lower severity.

BigRich · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."

IF they do seal up the windows with tape to make it airtight, will the oxygen not eventually run out and the people inside die? or am I missing something?

HYUFD · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here

Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
I find it staggering that a country as technologically advanced as China now is could have produced such ineffectual vaccines, if that really is true. What was the process behind that ?
Because mRNA vaccines are extremely new and very tricky to scale. And then they rushed their vaccine because they wanted to deploy soft power, same as Russia.
But AstraZeneca, and some others, aren't mRNA, no ?

AZN isn't no. And it isn't as good as the mRNA at stopping infection, but it looks like it does a reasonable job of training your system for the longer haul.

pigeon · January 2022

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
Yes, it's absolutely possible in a police state. Doing it in a country like the UK seems impossible. People wouldn't live under those conditions and would rather take their chances with the virus, any party which proposed an end to those conditions would win an election and MPs in that party would also be under a lot of pressure.

Democracy makes getting the R of Omicron under 1 impossibile.

Quite. In our case the whole country is already soaked in the variant and the state has neither the will not the ability to impose anything close to Chinese measures. It doesn't absolutely guarantee that the Government won't be driven by desperation to try another lockdown, but I doubt it would do much good and ministers, who have access to rather more information than all of us, may well share that suspicion...

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants

I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

BigRich said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
IF they do seal up the windows with tape to make it airtight, will the oxygen not eventually run out and the people inside die? or am I missing something?

Well in Wuhan they welded doors shut and errhhhh well erhhhh.....now they are just chaining them shut instead.

Richard_Tyndall · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India

You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

Foxy · January 2022

Charles said:
FPT

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid
He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

They're so predictable.
And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

Where do you draw the line.

Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

(*) Under your previous iteration
That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
You really don't live in the real world.
The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
The issue is capacity management

Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
That becomes an ethical issue.

You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.

HYUFD · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place

Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India

You really are ridiculous and a very good advert for rejoining the EU

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India

Nobody, literally nobody, is proposing free movement from India.

Easier while still controlled movement is an entirely different matter and quite reasonable - and its exactly what Vote Leave including especially Patel were advocating for in the Referendum.

WhisperingOracle · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
You really are ridiculous and a very good advert for rejoining the EU

The illogicality and unreality of Brexit itself is a very good advert for re-joining the EU - or at the very least, re-forming a closer and more realistic relationship.

Charles · January 2022

WhisperingOracle said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
I find it staggering that a country as technologically advanced as China now is could have produced such ineffectual vaccines, if that really is true. What was the process behind that - and why did they produce the inferior vaccine forms that you mentioned ?

Killed vaccines are fast, safe and usually effective. It was a reasonable bet.

geoffw · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India

Looks like Truss is making a mistake trying to bolster her reputation on trade deals.

Leon · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."

The dystopian Wuhan-type videos are back, as well

"But there was also this video of a resident being beaten by anti-epidemic workers after he allegedly left his community to get steamed buns because he was so hungry. The two community workers have reportedly been detained by Xi'an police."

"It’s been 10 days since the lockdown, and I don't receive any relief of any sort (luckily we don't need one atm). There's nothing but anger, anxiety, despair, and fear from the original Weibo comment sections of all the videos in the thread - like a retrospective of Wuhan 2020."

"In light of Xi'an lockdown, some people in Shajing Village are really struggling. Endless lines for steamed buns, hungry people & those who've had nothing but noodles for 8 days straight: "When will we get food? Everyone in the house is hungry. We can only ask for help on Weibo.""

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477353707364921345?s=20

This is CHINESE social media reporting despair and fear. Hmm

2022 is off to a cracking start!

HYUFD · January 2022

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers

BigRich · January 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.

I suspect that when the Olympics are over and the media attention is elsewhere, that is what they will do. by that time there should be good data from the rest of the would as to how bad it is, and all the leadership will have had there Phizer boosters.

If it all goes wrong, the Leadership can then blame it on those foreigners coming hear to do Olympic stuff. and get it out the way befor the 20th CCP Party conformance at the end of the year.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
You really are ridiculous and a very good advert for rejoining the EU
The illogicality and unreality of Brexit itself is a very good advert for re-joining the EU.

@HYUFD post was exactly that

Pulpstar · January 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:
More videos about this covid quarantine camp which will hold more than 10 000 people.
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1477200140247175169?s=20

Is this China or Australia ?

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here

HYUFD voted Remain, and only became a Leaver when Leave actually won!

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers

You are a Remainer

geoffw · January 2022

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
The dystopian Wuhan-type videos are back, as well

"But there was also this video of a resident being beaten by anti-epidemic workers after he allegedly left his community to get steamed buns because he was so hungry. The two community workers have reportedly been detained by Xi'an police."

"It’s been 10 days since the lockdown, and I don't receive any relief of any sort (luckily we don't need one atm). There's nothing but anger, anxiety, despair, and fear from the original Weibo comment sections of all the videos in the thread - like a retrospective of Wuhan 2020."

"In light of Xi'an lockdown, some people in Shajing Village are really struggling. Endless lines for steamed buns, hungry people & those who've had nothing but noodles for 8 days straight: "When will we get food? Everyone in the house is hungry. We can only ask for help on Weibo.""

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477353707364921345?s=20

This is CHINESE social media reporting despair and fear. Hmm

2022 is off to a cracking start!

Could be existential for the state if it gathers momentum and spreads.

Charles · January 2022

Foxy said:

Charles said:
FPT

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid
He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

They're so predictable.
And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

Where do you draw the line.

Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

(*) Under your previous iteration
That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
You really don't live in the real world.
The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
The issue is capacity management

Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
That becomes an ethical issue.

You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.

Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?

Richard_Tyndall · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers

Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.

HYUFD · January 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Nobody, literally nobody, is proposing free movement from India.

Easier while still controlled movement is an entirely different matter and quite reasonable - and its exactly what Vote Leave including especially Patel were advocating for in the Referendum.

Where, anywhere did the Leave campaign promise easier movement of migrants to the UK?

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

MaxPB said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.
The problem for China is that even at a rate of 1/50 being hospitalised rather than 1/20 for Delta that's still a disaster. Chinese population immunity levels are disastrously low. It's a paper tiger here because for 35m or so people the hospitalisation rate is ~1/400 for a further 13m it's ~1/200 and for the rest pretty low because of age stratification in our vaccination programme. In China Omicron is a huge threat with how well it spreads despite the lower severity.

Yes that's entirely true but my point was if there's one country that can allow the 'bodies to pile high' even with poor immunity and allow a brutal triage regime to be applied instead its China.

If they can purge this with zero Covid draconianism they might, but if they can't I wouldn't rule out "Plan B" being Triage instead of pratting around with restrictions that drag out the pain instead.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.

And not succeeding

Scott_xP · January 2022

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.

HYUFD · January 2022

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.

Yes because you are an extremist libertarian who was happy to exploit the working class to win a majority in the EU referendum, then throw them under a bus as soon as you got over 50% of the vote to push your own ideological agenda!!

Scott_xP · January 2022

The Sunday Telegraph: Children forced back into masks in lessons #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1477397327627362304/photo/1

FrancisUrquhart · January 2022

geoffw said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
The dystopian Wuhan-type videos are back, as well

"But there was also this video of a resident being beaten by anti-epidemic workers after he allegedly left his community to get steamed buns because he was so hungry. The two community workers have reportedly been detained by Xi'an police."

"It’s been 10 days since the lockdown, and I don't receive any relief of any sort (luckily we don't need one atm). There's nothing but anger, anxiety, despair, and fear from the original Weibo comment sections of all the videos in the thread - like a retrospective of Wuhan 2020."

"In light of Xi'an lockdown, some people in Shajing Village are really struggling. Endless lines for steamed buns, hungry people & those who've had nothing but noodles for 8 days straight: "When will we get food? Everyone in the house is hungry. We can only ask for help on Weibo.""

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477353707364921345?s=20

This is CHINESE social media reporting despair and fear. Hmm

2022 is off to a cracking start!
Could be existential for the state if it gathers momentum and spreads.

Whatever is required for the greater good will be done....make a scene and before you know it you are cotton picking in the middle of nowhere in order to supply a Nike factory.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.

I assume that is the mail poll

HYUFD · January 2022

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
HYUFD voted Remain, and only became a Leaver when Leave actually won!

Called respecting democracy and what Leavers actually voted for

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.
I assume that is the mail poll

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1477398022065688583?t=YGf_4DBQt1j1-LEbfDcwbQ&s=19

HYUFD · January 2022

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.

After all that only a 5% Labour poll lead is not that bad for Boris. I was expecting Labour to be over 10% ahead

darkage · January 2022

The poll cited above has a tinge of inevitability about it.
Boris had a brilliant strategy in 2019, but it is falling apart as quickly as it was put together.
It can dissolve to nothing. Brexit plus a decade of lethargic, directionless government could actually be the death of the conservative party.

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
HYUFD voted Remain, and only became a Leaver when Leave actually won!
Called respecting democracy and what Leavers actually voted for

But why did you vote Remain in the first place, then?

You're not one of us, HYUFD! You are NOT a True Be-Leaver!

Benpointer · January 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.
The problem for China is that even at a rate of 1/50 being hospitalised rather than 1/20 for Delta that's still a disaster. Chinese population immunity levels are disastrously low. It's a paper tiger here because for 35m or so people the hospitalisation rate is ~1/400 for a further 13m it's ~1/200 and for the rest pretty low because of age stratification in our vaccination programme. In China Omicron is a huge threat with how well it spreads despite the lower severity.
Yes that's entirely true but my point was if there's one country that can allow the 'bodies to pile high' even with poor immunity and allow a brutal triage regime to be applied instead its China.

If they can purge this with zero Covid draconianism they might, but if they can't I wouldn't rule out "Plan B" being Triage instead of pratting around with restrictions that drag out the pain instead.

When do the Winter Olympics start?

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.
After all that only a 5% poll lead is not that bad for Boris. I was expecting Labour to be over 10% ahead

This is the real killer

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1477398022065688583?t=YGf_4DBQt1j1-LEbfDcwbQ&s=19

Leon · January 2022

geoffw said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
The dystopian Wuhan-type videos are back, as well

"But there was also this video of a resident being beaten by anti-epidemic workers after he allegedly left his community to get steamed buns because he was so hungry. The two community workers have reportedly been detained by Xi'an police."

"It’s been 10 days since the lockdown, and I don't receive any relief of any sort (luckily we don't need one atm). There's nothing but anger, anxiety, despair, and fear from the original Weibo comment sections of all the videos in the thread - like a retrospective of Wuhan 2020."

"In light of Xi'an lockdown, some people in Shajing Village are really struggling. Endless lines for steamed buns, hungry people & those who've had nothing but noodles for 8 days straight: "When will we get food? Everyone in the house is hungry. We can only ask for help on Weibo.""

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477353707364921345?s=20

This is CHINESE social media reporting despair and fear. Hmm

2022 is off to a cracking start!
Could be existential for the state if it gathers momentum and spreads.

Yes. There is a huge, visceral and entirely understandable fear about famine in China. Fear of starvation was the reason for their insane, self-harming "one child" policy.

Millions of Chinese have died of hunger within living memory

If the people get the sense that the Party cannot feed them, then all bets are off, and Xi is in deep shit

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

geoffw said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Looks like Truss is making a mistake trying to bolster her reputation on trade deals.

Thankfully "the only Tory in the village" isn't the only Tory.

Truss has been very successful in boosting her position by presenting as a liberal, free trade, low tax Conservative. Even if HYUFD hates that, thankfully HYUFD is just betraying how extreme and out of touch he is rather than she is.

TheScreamingEagles · January 2022

Westminster Voting Intention (2019 Conservative Gains):

LAB: 49%
CON: 33%
LDM: 8%

Via
@DeltapollUK
, 23-30 Dec.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1477398022065688583

Stuartinromford · January 2022

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Nobody, literally nobody, is proposing free movement from India.

Easier while still controlled movement is an entirely different matter and quite reasonable - and its exactly what Vote Leave including especially Patel were advocating for in the Referendum.
Where, anywhere did the Leave campaign promise easier movement of migrants to the UK?

Priti Patel, for one;
https://africanvoiceonline.co.uk/vote-leave-to-save-our-british-curry-industry-priti-patel/

Commenting, Priti Patel said: “Uncontrolled immigration from the EU has led to tougher controls on migrants from the rest of the world. This means that we cannot bring in the talents and the skills we need to support our economy while we remain tied into the EU. Curry houses are being hit particularly hard as they are finding it more difficult to bring in experienced chefs to cook great dishes and train the next generation of chefs. Our curry houses are becoming the victims of the EU’s uncontrolled immigration rules.” “By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world.”

Regarding the current immigration system Priti Patel said: “Across the country when I visit Diaspora communities, I hear from numerous people of the struggles and problems they have encountered with the immigration system and rules they are subjected to. Temples and Gurdwaras have difficulties bringing priests in...

It's probably not what WWC voters voted Leave for, but it was part of the mosaic that added up to 52%. So who was fooling who?

Scott_xP · January 2022

darkage said:
Brexit plus a decade of lethargic, directionless government could actually be the death of the conservative party.

The Conservative and Unionist Party expired when BoZo expelled all the Conservative and Unionist MPs

rcs1000 · January 2022

BigRich said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
Extreme lockdowns will work, because it is far from impossible to push R down to below 1 (at massive cost). Ultimately, you can only leave the house once a week to get food. You wear an N95 mask whenever you are out the house. You do not go into the shop, you dial in your order and you pick it up outside.

People in essential jobs - as much as possible - wear HazMat suits.

In that way you *can* get R down below 1. But the problem is that it might take you months to drive cases down to negligible levels. And then when you open up, unless you've got them to zero, you're going to see them spike up again.

(And yes, X'ian has two absolutely massive semiconductor fabrication plants.)
The last time I looked, the reports were the workers at those factories where given very special exemptions as "key workers". If they shut those down, then you definitely know they have big problemo.
Then it may be time to worry

shanxi province xi'an city
Hundreds of Samsung's workers are lining up to be sent off to covid quarantine camps at midnight.
Samsung has a semiconductor factory in xi'an.
2021.12.26 midnight
https://samsung.com/semiconductor/about-us/manufacturing-centers/xian/

https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1475354664069697536?s=20

SamMobile
@SamMobiles
·
Dec 29, 2021
Samsung cuts down chip production at its Xi’an plant in China:

https://twitter.com/SamMobiles/status/1476227030542954507?s=20
"Authorities are sealing people's windows to ensure the airborne covid can't escape from people's apartments."
IF they do seal up the windows with tape to make it airtight, will the oxygen not eventually run out and the people inside die? or am I missing something?

A small plant.

Scott_xP · January 2022

Walls come tumbling down https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1477395359890649091/photo/1

Scott_xP · January 2022

Preferred team
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak - 33
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves - 40 https://twitter.com/mos_politics/status/1477395359890649091

HYUFD · January 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

geoffw said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Looks like Truss is making a mistake trying to bolster her reputation on trade deals.

Thankfully "the only Tory in the village" isn't the only Tory.

Truss has been very successful in boosting her position by presenting as a liberal, free trade, low tax Conservative. Even if HYUFD hates that, thankfully HYUFD is just betraying how extreme and out of touch he is rather than she is.

I am not objecting to low taxes, I am objecting to open door immigration without proper controls from a poorer country of over a billion people as I am a conservative not a libertarian like you

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2022

Benpointer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

MaxPB said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:
fpt for @FrancisUrquhart

"Something is definitely up. As you say the most logical is its Omicron and so have gone Wuhan+++ lockdown."

+++++

A lockdown which might not work against Mighty Omicron, despite being maybe the tightest quarantine in human history. It bears some thinking about: 13 million people are right now locked down, stuck indoors, and only one person is allowed out, once, every three days, to collect food

That is fucking horrible, those poor people

Xi'an is also, AIUI, a major centre of chip manufacture. This will have a global impact if it continues, and God knows what will happen if it spreads to the rest of China

Meanwhile, what will Beijing do if lockdown DOESN'T work against Omicron? Where do they go then? Just let it sweep the country?!
China's an odd one because its a country with a government powerful enough to enforce the most draconian restrictions - and a country with a government powerful enough to let it rip too.

If Omicron the Paper Tiger can't be contained via a tough lockdown then it won't surprise me if the Chinese go from one extreme to another and just let it rip rather than pratting around with restrictions to drag on the damage for months at a time.
The problem for China is that even at a rate of 1/50 being hospitalised rather than 1/20 for Delta that's still a disaster. Chinese population immunity levels are disastrously low. It's a paper tiger here because for 35m or so people the hospitalisation rate is ~1/400 for a further 13m it's ~1/200 and for the rest pretty low because of age stratification in our vaccination programme. In China Omicron is a huge threat with how well it spreads despite the lower severity.
Yes that's entirely true but my point was if there's one country that can allow the 'bodies to pile high' even with poor immunity and allow a brutal triage regime to be applied instead its China.

If they can purge this with zero Covid draconianism they might, but if they can't I wouldn't rule out "Plan B" being Triage instead of pratting around with restrictions that drag out the pain instead.
When do the Winter Olympics start?

Crumbs! 4th February!

rcs1000 · January 2022

Charles said:
FPT

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid
He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

They're so predictable.
And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

Where do you draw the line.

Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

(*) Under your previous iteration
That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
You really don't live in the real world.
The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
The issue is capacity management

Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
That becomes an ethical issue.

You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

Hard to square with the Hippocratic Oath.

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eek said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
HYUFD voted Remain, and only became a Leaver when Leave actually won!
Called respecting democracy and what Leavers actually voted for

You don't know what we voted for as you're not one of us and never will be as much as you pretend.

Its funny how in your twisted mind everyone who voted Leave did so because they believe exactly what you do on every other issue, despite your own beliefs leading you to vote Remain.

Benpointer · January 2022

The headline cases graph on Worldometer is rather shocking right now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

HYUFD · January 2022

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.
After all that only a 5% poll lead is not that bad for Boris. I was expecting Labour to be over 10% ahead
This is the real killer

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1477398022065688583?t=YGf_4DBQt1j1-LEbfDcwbQ&s=19

Most of those seats voted for Brown and Ed Miliband and Corbyn in 2017

Sunil_Prasannan · January 2022

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (+3)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 10% (=)

Via @DeltapollUK, 23-30 Dec.
Changes w/ 2-4 Dec.
After all that only a 5% Labour poll lead is not that bad for Boris. I was expecting Labour to be over 10% ahead

BartholomewRoberts · January 2022

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Nobody, literally nobody, is proposing free movement from India.

Easier while still controlled movement is an entirely different matter and quite reasonable - and its exactly what Vote Leave including especially Patel were advocating for in the Referendum.
Where, anywhere did the Leave campaign promise easier movement of migrants to the UK?

Quite literally promised by Patel herself.

https://m.facebook.com/voteleave/posts/statement-from-priti-patel-mp-employment-minister-on-how-uk-india-relations-will/556891701154425/

Leon · January 2022

"Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

Is China losing control?

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2022

Scott_xP said:
Walls come tumbling down https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1477395359890649091/photo/1

Rishi for PM ASAP

This cannot go on

Boris down to I supporter at this rate

Step forward @HYUFD

Eabhal · January 2022

We can't restrict healthcare for the unvaxxed - cannot put doctors in that position.

But we must hit them everywhere else; freedoms, taxes, bureaucracy. I won't abide by restrictions unless we do.

HYUFD · January 2022

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:
Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?
A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

Sensible immigration is good for everyone
Why? We don't export much to India and it is far poorer per head than we are so weakening immigration controls with them would see far more migration to the UK from India.

A deal with India would only be worth it if it greatly expanded our exports to India without compromising our points based migration system for Indian migrants
I thought that the idea was that Brexit would open trade deals across the world, which India is one, but also helps with our application to join the TPPA but if you are now twisting and turning on this deal, the question many will have is what is the point of leaving the EU in the first place
Most people voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and end free movement, not for trade deals with India leading to free movement from India
Nobody, literally nobody, is proposing free movement from India.

Easier while still controlled movement is an entirely different matter and quite reasonable - and its exactly what Vote Leave including especially Patel were advocating for in the Referendum.
Where, anywhere did the Leave campaign promise easier movement of migrants to the UK?
Priti Patel, for one;
https://africanvoiceonline.co.uk/vote-leave-to-save-our-british-curry-industry-priti-patel/

Commenting, Priti Patel said: “Uncontrolled immigration from the EU has led to tougher controls on migrants from the rest of the world. This means that we cannot bring in the talents and the skills we need to support our economy while we remain tied into the EU. Curry houses are being hit particularly hard as they are finding it more difficult to bring in experienced chefs to cook great dishes and train the next generation of chefs. Our curry houses are becoming the victims of the EU’s uncontrolled immigration rules.” “By voting to leave the EU we can take back control of our immigration policies, save our curry houses and join the rest of the world.”

Regarding the current immigration system Priti Patel said: “Across the country when I visit Diaspora communities, I hear from numerous people of the struggles and problems they have encountered with the immigration system and rules they are subjected to. Temples and Gurdwaras have difficulties bringing priests in...

It's probably not what WWC voters voted Leave for, but it was part of the mosaic that added up to 52%. So who was fooling who?

That could all be done with the points system we now have, not open door immigration from India

Andy_JS · January 2022

Leon said:
"Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

Is China losing control?

https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

Omicron is the CCP's worst nightmare. Something they cannot control.

New Red wall constituency poll has CON 15% behind – politicalbetting.com

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