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New Red wall constituency poll has CON 15% behind – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Paul Nuki
    @PaulNuki
    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....

    Based on?
    Hospital admissions heading northwards rapidly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    Covid: Workplaces told to plan for absences of up to 25% https://bbc.in/3JwcOsR
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    You're answering a point I haven't made again.
    I repeat. We have been told for a year that our world beating vaccines were an end to COVID. That's what everyone heard.
    Yet everyone has it.
    It is yet another lie from Boris.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,746

    darkage said:

    What will No 10 do in response the apparent cratering collapse in polling?

    I expect the NI rise to be ditched within weeks. Social care plans abandoned, as they appear to favour southern home owners. Action on energy costs: maybe drop VAT for a year or two? Reshuffle to bring in a couple of Red Wall 2019 MPs into Cabinet. Northern Powerhouse rail or whatever HS3 was called to be back being built again.

    Any other ideas?

    I would guess some sort of focussed levelling up initiative is on the cards.
    iirg Gove's white paper on levelling up was kicked back into the long grass as it was vacuous long term waffle.
    No idea but maybe they realised that it wasn't going to be easy to just change the entire structure of local government, introduce a new tier of elected mayors etc. Maybe other things are more important at the moment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Supermarket update: mask wearing in Tesco far higher than in Sainsbury's.

    (Most likely triple jabbed) 20-50 yr olds all wearing masks and furiously scrubbing down shopping trolleys.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    "Cholera is nothing to worry about because for some folk it's just a morning after a vindaloo."
    Back passage to India © Willie Ruston.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    Be challenging to hit statistical significance though in a real world study given the number of confounding factors
    Yes, I think so, but the ICNARC reports may produce that data. The Nov 15th report does show that the unvaxxed on ICU are younger and fewer other risk factors, but haven't looked at how this affects outcomes yet.



  • Leon said:

    A thread by the Telegraph health dude

    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....

    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20


    TL;DR: it's not very cheerful. About the best thing he says is that there's no point in new restrictions. The surge is now in the post. The next two weeks are gonna be rough

    Interesting that the Telegraph headline is calling it "Boris's gamble".

    A bit harsh, given that (by all accounts) it was forced on him by Rishi, Liz, JRM etc. Responsibility without power and all that...

    But also, if it wasn't leading to an NHS-Stepmom-Pornhub scenario, would BoJo be being set up as the scapegoat for what is to come?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    I thought US data was showing that in this wave (which is the US is still an omicron/delta mix) the unvaxxed were 4x more likely to get symptomatic COVID, but 10x more likely to require hospitalization and 10x more likely to die than the vexed.
    Yes, that is all true.

    What I am mooting is that of two hypothetically equally sick patients with similar risk factors the unvaxxed one may also do worse.
    Working purely from basic principles, I am not sure you can say that. If they are equally sick once the adaptive immune system has kicked in, their vaccine status is already baked in.
    Possibly so, but that may not prove to be the case when all the numbers are in.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,727
    EXC from @ShaunLintern: 110,000 NHS staff were absent on New Years Eve, according to leaked dashboard figures

    Ministers preparing for extreme staff shortages across the public sector

    Public sector leaders told to prepare for worse case scenario of *25%* absence rate https://twitter.com/bbchelena/status/1477405147517095938
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC from @ShaunLintern: 110,000 NHS staff were absent on New Years Eve, according to leaked dashboard figures

    Ministers preparing for extreme staff shortages across the public sector

    Public sector leaders told to prepare for worse case scenario of *25%* absence rate https://twitter.com/bbchelena/status/1477405147517095938

    Is that because they are ill or because they have been told to self isolate.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    You're answering a point I haven't made again.
    I repeat. We have been told for a year that our world beating vaccines were an end to COVID. That's what everyone heard.
    Yet everyone has it.
    It is yet another lie from Boris.
    Nobody ever said it was an end to Covid, but either way its not a lie. The Covid19 we had has gone, the common cold has replaced it.

    Its time to accept that Covid19 is mostly just another common cold strain for the triple vaccinated. Yes that can be fatal to the extremely vulnerable and for everyone else it can be quite unpleasant for a few days at home but that's true of the original common cold strains too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    A thread by the Telegraph health dude

    THREAD 1/10
    I'm sorry to say it on New Year's Day, but I think there is a serious chance now that the UK government's omicron gamble is about to go tits up....

    https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1477358070305071108?s=20


    TL;DR: it's not very cheerful. About the best thing he says is that there's no point in new restrictions. The surge is now in the post. The next two weeks are gonna be rough

    Interesting that the Telegraph headline is calling it "Boris's gamble".

    A bit harsh, given that (by all accounts) it was forced on him by Rishi, Liz, JRM etc. Responsibility without power and all that...

    But also, if it wasn't leading to an NHS-Stepmom-Pornhub scenario, would BoJo be being set up as the scapegoat for what is to come?
    There will be no more restrictions on the vaccinated allowed by any Tory PM any Tory leader who tries would lose a VONC
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    You're answering a point I haven't made again.
    I repeat. We have been told for a year that our world beating vaccines were an end to COVID. That's what everyone heard.
    Yet everyone has it.
    It is yet another lie from Boris.
    Nobody ever said it was an end to Covid, but either way its not a lie. The Covid19 we had has gone, the common cold has replaced it.

    Its time to accept that Covid19 is mostly just another common cold strain for the triple vaccinated. Yes that can be fatal to the extremely vulnerable and for everyone else it can be quite unpleasant for a few days at home but that's true of the original common cold strains too.
    Again. You're answering a different point.
    I'm not saying anyone said as much.
    I'm claiming that was what was heard.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.
  • New York state reports 85,476 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, including 49,724 in New York City
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited January 2022
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    Be challenging to hit statistical significance though in a real world study given the number of confounding factors
    Why "challenging"? In a "real world" study, as per the recent Scottish one, there is no dearth of degrees of freedom given the number of cases.

    Real world studies are a nightmare in their own right. Then you need to control for genetics, background health and a whole bunch of other stuff to prove statistically that vaccine status is a driver of outcomes
    If you have data on those variables then there is no difficulty with statistical significance if there really is a relationship there. Your comment implied insufficient degrees of freedom, but in, effectively, a population level study that is hardly an issue.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    Scott_xP said:

    🚜 Farmers will be given funds to restore natural habitats and rewild Britain under new government schemes designed to replace EU subsidies

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/01/farmers-get-funds-restore-natural-habitats-rewild-britain-new/

    Oh, dear. I wonder who is going to tell the headbangers...


    Let’s make 2022 the year to grow more of our own food and produce more of our goods. Government needs to use Brexit freedoms to make that easier and to buy British itself.
    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1477181474545799170

    Actually that could be quite popular
    Post Brexit this Government is rockin', set aside subsidies for British Farmers and mass immigration to counter employmrnt shortfalls. It's like we never left the EU. Except for the trade impedance with our nearest and most prolific trading partners.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    You're answering a point I haven't made again.
    I repeat. We have been told for a year that our world beating vaccines were an end to COVID. That's what everyone heard.
    Yet everyone has it.
    It is yet another lie from Boris.
    Nobody ever said it was an end to Covid, but either way its not a lie. The Covid19 we had has gone, the common cold has replaced it.

    Its time to accept that Covid19 is mostly just another common cold strain for the triple vaccinated. Yes that can be fatal to the extremely vulnerable and for everyone else it can be quite unpleasant for a few days at home but that's true of the original common cold strains too.
    Again. You're answering a different point.
    I'm not saying anyone said as much.
    I'm claiming that was what was heard.
    Well if people heard something so unbelievable, despite Whitty and the PM etc saying that this wasn't going anywhere and we were all going to get it, then that's their own foolishness.

    The introduction of restrictions with Plan B etc is something that should have gone away due to vaccines and should rapidly be reversed. The virus isn't going away though, its never going away. We should just be able to live with it as we live with every other endemic virus.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,865

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    "Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

    Is China losing control?

    https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

    Omicron is the CCP's worst nightmare. Something they cannot control.
    Yes. The CCP looks serenely secure and masterly, controlling Covid with an iron fist, blah blah

    But all police states look totally secure, until they suddenly don't, and then they can fall quite quickly

    That said I am unconvinced this will topple Xi. The Chinese have gotten rich quick and very many will still be grateful....
    They do have a number of other things going on e.g. the collapse of giant real estate companies, which is the only avenue most Chinese people have to invest their money.

    I am sure they are very concerned a number of stars might align.
    It would be fecking ironic with knobs if the virus they almost certainly leaked by mistake from their own Frankenstein labs ends up ending the CCP.

    I hope the Government are planning to take advantage of China’s difficulties, both commercially and politically. How about subsidies to build large chip factories, possibly in the red wall?
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
    That is simply untrue

    You need to read the article again before spreading fake news
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    Be challenging to hit statistical significance though in a real world study given the number of confounding factors
    Why "challenging"? In a "real world" study, as per the recent Scottish one, there is no dearth of degrees of freedom given the number of cases.

    Real world studies are a nightmare in their own right. Then you need to control for genetics, background health and a whole bunch of other stuff to prove statistically that vaccine status is a driver of outcomes
    Not my field at all, but isn't the whole idea of a randomized test that you don't have to control for all those other factors provided both the control and the test group a similarly structured?
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
    That is simply untrue

    You need to read the article again before spreading fake news
    He's got an idea in his head, it doesn't matter what reality is.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited January 2022
    It's similar to the immigration from India argument.
    What's said doesn't matter.
    Only what is heard. Particularly by folk who don't pay much attention.
    It is a fundamental of good messaging.
    And of course. The basic flaw in Brexit. Folk heard what they wanted. And remembered that bit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    How many have had it and been seriously ill ending in hospital or death?

    And how many have had it as a cough, cold or manflu? That we have every winter in normal circumstances anyway?

    The vaccine making the virus another common cold is the vaccine working and time to abolish all restrictions that don't apply to any other common cold virus.
    You're answering a point I haven't made again.
    I repeat. We have been told for a year that our world beating vaccines were an end to COVID. That's what everyone heard.
    Yet everyone has it.
    It is yet another lie from Boris.
    Nobody ever said it was an end to Covid, but either way its not a lie. The Covid19 we had has gone, the common cold has replaced it.

    Its time to accept that Covid19 is mostly just another common cold strain for the triple vaccinated. Yes that can be fatal to the extremely vulnerable and for everyone else it can be quite unpleasant for a few days at home but that's true of the original common cold strains too.
    Does 1 person in 60 get admitted to hospital when they have a common cold?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
    That is simply untrue

    You need to read the article again before spreading fake news
    No it is absolutely true and without the Home Secretary's approval it would not get through Cabinet
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
    That is simply untrue

    You need to read the article again before spreading fake news
    He's got an idea in his head, it doesn't matter what reality is.
    The print in the article he refers to does not say half the cabinet are opposed

    It really is fake news and he should know better
  • dixiedean said:

    It's similar to the immigration from India argument.
    What's said doesn't matter.
    Only what is heard. Particularly by folk who don't pay much attention.
    It is a fundamental of good messaging.

    And if we get through the next month with "Covid" being no worse than man flu for the vaccinated population then that will be proof positive that Covid19 has gone away and the virus that caused Covid19 now causes the cold instead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    edited January 2022
    TimT said:

    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    Be challenging to hit statistical significance though in a real world study given the number of confounding factors
    Why "challenging"? In a "real world" study, as per the recent Scottish one, there is no dearth of degrees of freedom given the number of cases.

    Real world studies are a nightmare in their own right. Then you need to control for genetics, background health and a whole bunch of other stuff to prove statistically that vaccine status is a driver of outcomes
    Not my field at all, but isn't the whole idea of a randomized test that you don't have to control for all those other factors provided both the control and the test group a similarly structured?
    Yes, but this is an observational study, not an RCT, so subject to unrecognised confounding variables
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    dixiedean said:

    I imagine on top of the scandals, there are a hell of a lot of people who are pretty damn grumpy at the moment. Its winter, been told to get jabbed, been told to get boostered and yet everybody and their dog is getting COVID, which means everybody in their household isolating etc. Few people like the idea of being stuck in their house for 7-10 days.

    Yes. And what people heard for the past year was our world beating vaccine programme was an end to COVID.
    Yet every bugger and their aunt has had it in the past 3 weeks, or has it now, or will have it in January.
    That has not passed unnoticed.
    But very, very few have died. Or even got unpleasantly ill.

    That has not passed unnoticed.

    Except by the dumb fucks who won't get jabbed.
    Covid daths are not too worrysome a political collateral for Boris. The NHS falling over however would be bad news for him.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    Well Ministers are in agreement for a generous offer on visas and I doubt they will consult you
  • Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I think there are good reasons why you wouldn't want hospital staff turning up to work while Covid positive, even if Covid itself is not directly a major concern, it is more likely to be so for people in hospital about to have surgery and receive general anaesthetic, or people generally who are sick enough to need to be in hospital for other reasons. So, excepting for the standalone Boris Wards for the Covid patients, I would still want hospital staff to stay away from work if Covid positive, but not unwell as such.

    That doesn't apply to, say, distribution, or electricity generation, etc.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Sajid Javid: We must live with Covid

    He's meant to be pro-lockdown, so that's a good sign

    And of course he is right. All the models said that if we wanted to impose even a halfway effective lockdown we had to do it by December 31st at the latest

    It's Jan 1, 2022. It is now too late. We must endure
    What are the odds that having said that in their prior models, the new models presented on 4 January say that we must lockdown now and its not too late. 🙄

    They're so predictable.
    And so are you. Whatever evidence is presented, your answer will always be that your personal freedom is more valuable than any number of lives.
    Yes I will, its a point of principle for me. I'm not trying to twist the evidence to force it to suit my aims, I literally don't care what the "evidence" says.

    Where do you draw the line.

    Would you imprison a suspected killer without any evidence in order to save lives?
    Would you imprison an innocent person if it would save others lives?

    I wouldn't. I regret accepting lockdown last year and I certainly can't accept it post-vaccines.
    Then you are an extremist. As bad - if not worse - than the 'lockdown zealots' you decry. Different sides of the same Roman toilet sponge.

    I know you don't see it that way, but your entire view on this is extremist. For instance your (*) view that no-one ever had any life under lockdown.

    (*) Under your previous iteration
    That's ridiculous, there's no both sides to this. This is like people trying to say there's two sides to the climate change discussion. There aren't.

    COVID is now a personal risk, it's up to individuals to get vaccinated and reduce their risk of hospitalisation and death. Our freedoms cannot be curtailed to prevent the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. There's no argument you can make on "deaths" wrt lockdowns. There's a possible one on healthcare capacity in the short term but not on deaths. We've all had the chance to be vaccinated and to get boosters. You may be ok to lockdown to protect stupid people from their poor decisions, that's your personal choice, trying to impose that on the rest of us is ridiculous.

    Ultimately, we don't lockdown or curtail freedoms to protect people from dying of the flu and for a triple jabbed person this is not even as deadly as the flu.
    It isn't ridiculous. Lockdowns are a tool in the toolbox to deal with Covid. Blankly saying they should not be used under any circumstances is the ridiculous comment - and not one I believe you've made.

    And the point you're missing is that it isn't just the deaths of those who chose not to get vaccinated. It's all of us. Heaven forfend, if you have a heart attack whilst out with your mates at the pub, or I'd got hit by a lorry whilst running earlier, we'd hope for excellent treatment in hospital. We won't get those things if the hospital system collapses.

    I'm not calling for a lockdown. I am saying that lockdowns should remain in our arsenal for dealing with it. Hopefully they will not be required.
    If you have a heart attack then the NHS should triage and prioritise that. Putting investment into the NHS or having proper triage is an acceptable way to run the system, locking down the innocent in order to protect antivaxxers from the consequences of their choices is not.
    You really don't live in the real world.
    The NHS has previously rationed or triaged pretty harshly. Doing it for COVID would not be anything new. You need to let go of the idea that we can eliminate or halt COVID or prevent anyone from dying of it. We can minimise the risks with vaccines and hopefully anti-virals pretty soon. Beyond that if people refuse vaccines the consequence of that is a high risk of death. Let them live with their stupid decisions.
    The issue is capacity management

    Let’s say that you have 5 spare icu beds. Over the following week there are 5 unvaxxed covid patients who need them. Do you leave them empty?

    If not and then a cardiac patient comes in needing one do you kick a covid patient out?

    I’m not sure it is feasible (or ethical) to do either of those

    The only point triage is possible is if there is one empty bed with simultaneous demand from unvaxxed covid vs another allowing you to make a choice
    You do it with QALYs, push up the value of COVID healthcare provision for unvaccinated COVID patients. It would push the balance of something like that to not bothering for older vaccine refusers which would keep resources available for non-COVID care.
    That becomes an ethical issue.

    You are saying “I have spare capacity but I am not going to treat you. You may die as a result”

    I will let @Foxy comment, but I suspect most doctors would struggle with that

    A fair percentage of the unvaxxed are mentally ill, others just fearful of anything during pregnancy, others regret their choice immediately. It is not ethical to refuse them treatment. Decisions made for treatment are based on algorithms of who will most likely survive and make a good recovery.
    Agreed - I’ve not seen any data that suggests unvaccinated have poorer treatment prognosis (although I haven’t looked). Have you?
    No, though it wouldn't surprise me if being unvaxxed also emerged as an adverse prognostic factor. After all they do have less in the way of protective immunity.
    I thought US data was showing that in this wave (which is the US is still an omicron/delta mix) the unvaxxed were 4x more likely to get symptomatic COVID, but 10x more likely to require hospitalization and 10x more likely to die than the vexed.
    Yes, that is all true.

    What I am mooting is that of two hypothetically equally sick patients with similar risk factors the unvaxxed one may also do worse.
    Working purely from basic principles, I am not sure you can say that. If they are equally sick once the adaptive immune system has kicked in, their vaccine status is already baked in.
    Possibly so, but that may not prove to be the case when all the numbers are in.
    Agreed. And timing might be an issue too - on what day relative to the adaptive immune system kicking in are they equally sick. The T-cell responses may not ramp up at the same rate - which could go either way for the prognosis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    Well Ministers are in agreement for a generous offer on visas and I doubt they will consult you
    No they aren't, the Home Secretary for starters is opposed.

    There would be hell to pay from Tory backbenchers, members and voters if this went through too. It would be civil war in the party
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    Well Ministers are in agreement for a generous offer on visas and I doubt they will consult you
    They hardly need to consult HY, since they can rest easy that once the policy is announced, he will find a reason to be in favour of it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022

    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

    Monday.....are they going to be taking tomorrow off? I fully expect the usual suspects from SAGE and iSAGE speaking in a person capacity tomorrow.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Isn't it the Tories who agreed on the India visa plan?
    Nothing has been agreed, half the Tory cabinet including the Home Secretary is opposed, as most Tory members and most Tory voters will also be opposed
    That is simply untrue

    You need to read the article again before spreading fake news
    No it is absolutely true and without the Home Secretary's approval it would not get through Cabinet
    You really are lost
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    "Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

    Is China losing control?

    https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

    Omicron is the CCP's worst nightmare. Something they cannot control.
    Yes. The CCP looks serenely secure and masterly, controlling Covid with an iron fist, blah blah

    But all police states look totally secure, until they suddenly don't, and then they can fall quite quickly

    That said I am unconvinced this will topple Xi. The Chinese have gotten rich quick and very many will still be grateful....
    They do have a number of other things going on e.g. the collapse of giant real estate companies, which is the only avenue most Chinese people have to invest their money.

    I am sure they are very concerned a number of stars might align.
    It would be fecking ironic with knobs if the virus they almost certainly leaked by mistake from their own Frankenstein labs ends up ending the CCP.

    I hope the Government are planning to take advantage of China’s difficulties, both commercially and politically. How about subsidies to build large chip factories, possibly in the red wall?
    They should have been doing this as soon as they decided the Chinese were too big a strategic risk to use Huawei in the 5G network, or they had another opportunity to realise that when there were so many issues sourcing PPE from China in spring 2020. I hope they don't fail, yet again, to take steps that have long since seemed to be blindingly obvious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    Well Ministers are in agreement for a generous offer on visas and I doubt they will consult you
    No they aren't, the Home Secretary for starters is opposed.

    There would be hell to pay from Tory backbenchers, members and voters if this went through too. It would be civil war in the party
    I give up
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    Just catching up to find my hopes for 2022 have already been cast into oblivion. I had hoped that 2022 would be the year that people stopped banging on about Brexit. Not a chance, evidently. Amazing.

    Though I do suspect that banging on about Europe/Brexit has now become more harmful to the Tories than the opposition. It'd be hilarious if Brexit/immigration led to disastrous Tory divisions yet again. And it might, if/when Covid goes off the boil.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    That figure alone shows why all HCW should be wearing FFP3, and visiting needs to be quite restricted too to prevent hospital transmission. Preventing spread in hospital is essential to keep the gears turning.

    "Living with Covid" doesn't mean ignoring it, it requires sensible snd proportionate mitigations that minimally impact on freedom and society.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206
    edited January 2022
    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279
    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    Have they invented any tests yet that can differentiate between Omicron and other variants?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    Well Ministers are in agreement for a generous offer on visas and I doubt they will consult you
    No they aren't, the Home Secretary for starters is opposed.

    There would be hell to pay from Tory backbenchers, members and voters if this went through too. It would be civil war in the party
    Civil war in the Tory party?
    Excellent, bring it on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    What is being described in the article is controlled migration. Indeed controlled migration in the form advocated by Patel in the Referendum.

    The only person who's suggesting free movement with India is HYUFD as his own personal Quixotic windmill to tilt at.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

    Monday.....are they going to be taking tomorrow off? I fully expect the usual suspects from SAGE and iSAGE speaking in a person capacity tomorrow.
    Indeed. "Speaking in a personal capacity" has now joined "Rail bus replacement service" as dread words of the english language.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    edited January 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    Have they invented any tests yet that can differentiate between Omicron and other variants?
    Yes, but sequencing takes time and is only done on a sample of PCR tests, hence why the government's published data is always out of date and incomplete, at least mid wave.
  • dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
    Yep. Tho maybe an evergreen?

    FWIW the same photos are used across multiple accounts, all saying these are real images of Xi'an, but in the tidal wave of misinfo that spills out of China, from the Party AND its opponents, who the F can say


    However there IS enough hard evidence, some of it from official Chinese sources reluctantly admitting the truth, that something quite nasty and quite scary is potentially unfolding in Xi'an. I wonder if the authorities really know what it is, themselves, yet. A new variant? Delta? Omicron?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    That figure alone shows why all HCW should be wearing FFP3, and visiting needs to be quite restricted too to prevent hospital transmission. Preventing spread in hospital is essential to keep the gears turning.

    "Living with Covid" doesn't mean ignoring it, it requires sensible snd proportionate mitigations that minimally impact on freedom and society.

    So have they got Covid?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080

    What will No 10 do in response the apparent cratering collapse in polling?

    I expect the NI rise to be ditched within weeks. Social care plans abandoned, as they appear to favour southern home owners. Action on energy costs: maybe drop VAT for a year or two? Reshuffle to bring in a couple of Red Wall 2019 MPs into Cabinet. Northern Powerhouse rail or whatever HS3 was called to be back being built again.

    Any other ideas?

    Sack Boris.....
    Proportional Property Tax, which gives Red Wallers several hundred a year off local taxes, and Southern NIMBYs the abolition of Stamp Duty.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050

    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

    Not much point now. That ship has sailed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
    Yep. Tho maybe an evergreen?

    FWIW the same photos are used across multiple accounts, all saying these are real images of Xi'an, but in the tidal wave of misinfo that spills out of China, from the Party AND its opponents, who the F can say


    However there IS enough hard evidence, some of it from official Chinese sources reluctantly admitting the truth, that something quite nasty and quite scary is potentially unfolding in Xi'an. I wonder if the authorities really know what it is, themselves, yet. A new variant? Delta? Omicron?
    Occams razor says Omicron plus no natural immunity plus little protection from vaccines plus 13 million people packed in.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
    Yep. Tho maybe an evergreen?

    FWIW the same photos are used across multiple accounts, all saying these are real images of Xi'an, but in the tidal wave of misinfo that spills out of China, from the Party AND its opponents, who the F can say


    However there IS enough hard evidence, some of it from official Chinese sources reluctantly admitting the truth, that something quite nasty and quite scary is potentially unfolding in Xi'an. I wonder if the authorities really know what it is, themselves, yet. A new variant? Delta? Omicron?
    The one thing we have to hope is its not some entirely unconnected Covid22 they've just unleashed Wuhan style and which our vaccines won't be at all related to affecting.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080

    Just catching up to find my hopes for 2022 have already been cast into oblivion. I had hoped that 2022 would be the year that people stopped banging on about Brexit. Not a chance, evidently. Amazing.

    Though I do suspect that banging on about Europe/Brexit has now become more harmful to the Tories than the opposition. It'd be hilarious if Brexit/immigration led to disastrous Tory divisions yet again. And it might, if/when Covid goes off the boil.

    Agree with you on that one. We require things to happen.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If you say to people the way out of this is to get vaccinated and it turns out that if people are vaccinated we still get locked down then you should expect some scepticism.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
    Yep. Tho maybe an evergreen?

    FWIW the same photos are used across multiple accounts, all saying these are real images of Xi'an, but in the tidal wave of misinfo that spills out of China, from the Party AND its opponents, who the F can say


    However there IS enough hard evidence, some of it from official Chinese sources reluctantly admitting the truth, that something quite nasty and quite scary is potentially unfolding in Xi'an. I wonder if the authorities really know what it is, themselves, yet. A new variant? Delta? Omicron?
    Occams razor says Omicron plus no natural immunity plus little protection from vaccines plus 13 million people packed in.
    Yes, it does
  • TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If you say to people the way out of this is to get vaccinated and it turns out that if people are vaccinated we still get locked down then you should expect some scepticism.
    That's a very good point and why its utterly unacceptable under any circumstances to have post-vaccination lockdowns. 👍
  • dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    Mrs PtP currently laid up with it. She describes it as 'Worse than a cold but not as bad as the flu'. She has had both jabs but not the booster which I suspect would have saved her from the infection, but she's not too bad and recovering nicely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,112

    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

    Monday.....are they going to be taking tomorrow off? I fully expect the usual suspects from SAGE and iSAGE speaking in a person capacity tomorrow.
    Indeed. "Speaking in a personal capacity" has now joined "Rail bus replacement service" as dread words of the english language.

    At least they're doing it up front. Which is more than you can say about much political news. For instance this stuff about Patel vs Truss. Which is about as convincing as the idea they're doing their fight in a mud bath.*

    *Which is not at all convincing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    That figure alone shows why all HCW should be wearing FFP3, and visiting needs to be quite restricted too to prevent hospital transmission. Preventing spread in hospital is essential to keep the gears turning.

    "Living with Covid" doesn't mean ignoring it, it requires sensible snd proportionate mitigations that minimally impact on freedom and society.

    So have they got Covid?
    I don't know them all! In my Trust at present there are about 5% on sickness absence for non covid, and a similar number for covid.

    My Trust has a reserved PCR testing site for staff, so tests can be available and turned around quickly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    edited January 2022

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
    I'm not saying they aren't.
    Most of my conversations are with the very poorly educated and totally uninterested. Unlike the majority on here, who seem to hang in different circles.
    I'm trying to put across what people have heard, remembered and what they are saying now.
    That's all.
    "How can I be positive when I've been vaccinated? What was the point? Not doing it again, they don't work. Boris lied."
    It isn't pointing to a government bounce that's for sure.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
  • How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    Have they invented any tests yet that can differentiate between Omicron and other variants?
    No idea. If there are 115,000 NHS workers with Covid we should very sadly look at the CFR. What is it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,112

    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If you say to people the way out of this is to get vaccinated and it turns out that if people are vaccinated we still get locked down then you should expect some scepticism.
    That's a very good point and why its utterly unacceptable under any circumstances to have post-vaccination lockdowns. 👍
    There might be a few other minor factors in the matter. Like the fact that if vaccinations really didn't work then you do need lockdowns.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    Mrs PtP currently laid up with it. She describes it as 'Worse than a cold but not as bad as the flu'. She has had both jabs but not the booster which I suspect would have saved her from the infection, but she's not too bad and recovering nicely.
    Good to here she is recovering,

    Do you mind me asking why she did not get the booster?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    If 115,000 NHS staff are off because of Covid then I very much hope the death rate won't increase substantially over the next week or two or three.

    That figure alone shows why all HCW should be wearing FFP3, and visiting needs to be quite restricted too to prevent hospital transmission. Preventing spread in hospital is essential to keep the gears turning.

    "Living with Covid" doesn't mean ignoring it, it requires sensible snd proportionate mitigations that minimally impact on freedom and society.

    So have they got Covid?
    I don't know them all! In my Trust at present there are about 5% on sickness absence for non covid, and a similar number for covid.

    My Trust has a reserved PCR testing site for staff, so tests can be available and turned around quickly.
    I hope everyone gets better and is back at work very soon.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,262

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    "Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

    Is China losing control?

    https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

    Omicron is the CCP's worst nightmare. Something they cannot control.
    Yes. The CCP looks serenely secure and masterly, controlling Covid with an iron fist, blah blah

    But all police states look totally secure, until they suddenly don't, and then they can fall quite quickly

    That said I am unconvinced this will topple Xi. The Chinese have gotten rich quick and very many will still be grateful....
    They do have a number of other things going on e.g. the collapse of giant real estate companies, which is the only avenue most Chinese people have to invest their money.

    I am sure they are very concerned a number of stars might align.
    It would be fecking ironic with knobs if the virus they almost certainly leaked by mistake from their own Frankenstein labs ends up ending the CCP.

    I hope the Government are planning to take advantage of China’s difficulties, both commercially and politically. How about subsidies to build large chip factories, possibly in the red wall?
    How's that going to help the anti-obesity drive?

    ;-)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    Case rates in the Netherlands, Italy and the UK - source: ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

    Netherlands

    Peak cases this Autumn: 1,309 per million (28 November)
    Case rate when full lockdown came into force: 829 per million (19 December)
    Case rate at post-lockdown minimum: 702 per million (28 December)
    Latest case rate: 770 per million (31 December)

    Italy

    Cases on November 28th: 194 per million
    Cases on December 31st: 1,321 per million

    UK

    Cases on November 28th: 635 per million
    Cases on December 31st: 2,200 per million

    Possible conclusion: Italy's broad range of restrictions, including widespread use of masking and vaxports, may well have suppressed Delta but seems to be of no avail against Omicron - the UK case rate approximately equalled the current Italian case rate only nine days beforehand, and the trajectory of Italian cases appears to be steeper. Ergo tighter restrictions short of lockdown don't appear to be working for them anymore and are not, presumably, any more likely to work for us.

    The Dutch case rate was already in decline before lockdown, but the rate of decline slowed after the lockdown started, bottomed out earlier in the week, and rates have since started to rise again and are approaching the level that they were at when the country went into its hard lockdown before Christmas. It's too early to conclude how effective the lockdown is going to be, but the situation does not look all that encouraging at the moment. It may turn out that cancelling the festivities and putting everyone under house arrest again has bought them some time, but that the Omicron variant will ultimately breach their defences and may well already have started to do so. I think we'll be more confident of the actual trend in another week or so.

    The Dutch case trend is, incidentally, quite unlike that seen in the UK during the Kent variant disaster at the beginning of 2021. The Prime Minister announced a national lockdown on January 4th, cases actually rose for another six days, but thereafter the decline in case rate for the rest of the Winter was continuous (a tiny one day blip on February 22nd excepted.) At no point during lockdown did the cases start to trend back upwards again.

    Dutch Omicron surveillance figures based on PCR testing from three different laboratories are published online and complete to Boxing Day. The three labs indicated Omicron prevalence in the community at 43.2%, 43.1% and 64.5%, though in practice the 43% figure is likely more accurate as the higher figure is based on a low sample number. Omicron is almost certainly now the dominant variant in the Netherlands.

    source: https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/variants/omicron
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
    I'm not saying they aren't.
    Most of my conversations are with the very poorly educated and totally uninterested. Unlike the majority on here, who seem to hang in different circles.
    I'm trying to put across what people have heard, remembered and what they are saying now.
    That's all.
    It isn't pointing to a government bounce that's for sure.
    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,206

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A twitter account highly critical of the CCP, so to be treated with caution.

    But look at the kit these Chinese officials are wearing. It looks worse than anything in Wuhan


    看他们穿的这身自带氧气的装备,就感觉西安又隐瞒了疫情, 出血热难道比武汉肺炎防护等级高吗?
    我就感觉大事不妙,这个国家隐瞒常有,李文亮已经没有
    Translated from Chinese by
    Seeing the oxygen-carrying equipment they were wearing, they felt that Xi'an had concealed the epidemic again. Is the level of protection against hemorrhagic fever higher than that of Wuhan pneumonia?
    I feel that big things are not good, this country often hides things, Li Wenliang no longer

    https://twitter.com/TuCaoFakeNews/status/1477132717447790596?s=20


    Is this video even from Xi'an? Right now it is cold and wintry in Xi'an, a northern city. This doesn't look wintry. But then they also look like they are on the moon, so who knows

    Tree have leaves on......that doesn't seem likely in January.
    Yep. Tho maybe an evergreen?

    FWIW the same photos are used across multiple accounts, all saying these are real images of Xi'an, but in the tidal wave of misinfo that spills out of China, from the Party AND its opponents, who the F can say


    However there IS enough hard evidence, some of it from official Chinese sources reluctantly admitting the truth, that something quite nasty and quite scary is potentially unfolding in Xi'an. I wonder if the authorities really know what it is, themselves, yet. A new variant? Delta? Omicron?
    The one thing we have to hope is its not some entirely unconnected Covid22 they've just unleashed Wuhan style and which our vaccines won't be at all related to affecting.
    The best guess at the moment is Omicron, which was bound to reach China eventually, it is so infectious

    That would actually be far preferable to the idea, mooted by some, that the Xi'an Bug is a new Covid variant which resembles V H Fever in outcome but with the airborne infectiousness of Omicron. That is something close to a true doomsday scenario.

    But it is unlikely, I think- as we would already be seeing multiple corpses and deaths and the panic would be off the scale
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is, all young Indians regardless of skills could have to right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years under the plans
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    I didn't know Hartlepool was a mega city with many million residents. I think i can name most mega cities else where in the world, but there are significant number in China that are totally invisible to most westeners.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,154
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
  • How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    You must know of the Terracotta Army?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terracotta_Army
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    The rate of population growth of some Chinese cities is staggering. Apparently Xian has increased 3 million in 3 years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If you say to people the way out of this is to get vaccinated and it turns out that if people are vaccinated we still get locked down then you should expect some scepticism.
    That's a very good point and why its utterly unacceptable under any circumstances to have post-vaccination lockdowns. 👍
    Very disappointing piece in The Times today seeking to rebut anti-vaxxers in the form of a Q&A. But the "questions" were all fatuous and not addressing key concerns.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Foxy said:

    The media are going to be in full 'lock us down now' mode by Monday.

    Not much point now. That ship has sailed.
    Yep. But that wont stop the Pestons and the Beths yelling it at ministers next week.

  • How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    You must know of the Terracotta Army?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terracotta_Army
    Yes, but I didn't know there was a mega city in that region. I am sure loads of people have heard of Stone Henge but no idea about any of the towns / cities in the vicinity.
This discussion has been closed.