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New Red wall constituency poll has CON 15% behind – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Yes. It isn't completely implausible that a new covid variant causes bleeding, it is a recognised feature of the inflammatory phase of covid already. So becoming a more prominent feature is quite possible.
  • Apparently there are at least 16 cities of more than 10 million people and more than 160 with more than a million people in China.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills
    "Young Indians" != "all Indians". So you're already backtracking. So are you going to admit its bullshit now?

    It doesn't even say that is what would happen in the article. It says a scheme like that is one idea, of many, being discussed. Other proposals being discussed are related to students studying here, or visa application fees, neither of which are remotely "free movement".
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Good idea from the French to have alternative forms of travel promoted in car adverts:

    https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211231-opt-for-cycling-french-car-ads-required-to-back-travel-alternatives-from-2022
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    I didn't know Hartlepool was a mega city with many million residents. I think i can name most mega cities else where in the world, but there are significant number in China that are totally invisible to most westeners.
    Only ignorant westerners.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is, all young Indians regardless of skills could have to right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years under the plans
    I don't believe that is true, but if it is anything like FOM then it is political suicide for the Tories.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

    A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

    Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

    Sensible immigration is good for everyone
    Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
    Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

    Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
    Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
    You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

    You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

    I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
    Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

    Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.
    Yes because you are an extremist libertarian who was happy to exploit the working class to win a majority in the EU referendum, then throw them under a bus as soon as you got over 50% of the vote to push your own ideological agenda!!
    Nope wrong again. Much as I would like free migration I am certainly not in any way trying to push it onto people nor top speak on their behalf. It is a personal view that I freely articulate on here in the interests of discussion. You on the other hand continually claim to speak both for your party and for whole swathes of people, most of whom you have never even met a representative of let alone spent any time with. You are an arrogant hypocrite who does not really have the interests of these people at heart except as voting fodder for your beloved party. The day they switch sides you will be decrying them as fools and unworthy of consideration.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
    And Sunil voted for the same party as HYUFD


    Oh well
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
    Not necessarily as Cameron lost all those seats too except Canterbury in 2015. They would need to be competitive in all the seats Cameron won in 2015 or May won in 2017 however to have a chance to stay in power either with a small majority or with the DUP if they lost the redwall
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
    I'm not saying they aren't.
    Most of my conversations are with the very poorly educated and totally uninterested. Unlike the majority on here, who seem to hang in different circles.
    I'm trying to put across what people have heard, remembered and what they are saying now.
    That's all.
    It isn't pointing to a government bounce that's for sure.
    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.
    Not particularly to be honest. But this is a pretty insular place. The only topic round here is the virus. It is rife. And I mean rife. Literally every other person has had it or has it right now.
    New Year's Eve didn't happen in this village. Not a single firework. And the bars were apparently quiet too.
    Restrictions or not didn't make much difference. Everyone is either sick, isolating, recovering or in hiding it seems.
    I'm one of the very few fully over it. There were very few cases in the rest of the pandemic.
    I realise this may not be typical. But there you are.
  • How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    You must know of the Terracotta Army?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terracotta_Army
    Yes, but I didn't know there was a mega city in that region. I am sure loads of people have heard of Stone Henge but no idea about any of the towns / cities in the vicinity.
    Even I knew the Terracotta Army was found "just outside Xian".
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
    And Sunil voted for the same party as HYUFD


    Oh well
    He voted Remain, I voted Leave.

    HYUFD is not one of us. He's not a true Be-Leaver :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

    A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

    Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

    Sensible immigration is good for everyone
    Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
    Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

    Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
    Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
    You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

    You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

    I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
    Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

    Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.
    Yes because you are an extremist libertarian who was happy to exploit the working class to win a majority in the EU referendum, then throw them under a bus as soon as you got over 50% of the vote to push your own ideological agenda!!
    Nope wrong again. Much as I would like free migration I am certainly not in any way trying to push it onto people nor top speak on their behalf. It is a personal view that I freely articulate on here in the interests of discussion. You on the other hand continually claim to speak both for your party and for whole swathes of people, most of whom you have never even met a representative of let alone spent any time with. You are an arrogant hypocrite who does not really have the interests of these people at heart except as voting fodder for your beloved party. The day they switch sides you will be decrying them as fools and unworthy of consideration.
    Given the amount of canvassing I do I would suggest I have spoken to more working class people about their views than you have
  • BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Ebola, Marburg and the like. At least they are the best known versions.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills
    "Young Indians" != "all Indians". So you're already backtracking. So are you going to admit its bullshit now?

    It doesn't even say that is what would happen in the article. It says a scheme like that is one idea, of many, being discussed. Other proposals being discussed are related to students studying here, or visa application fees, neither of which are remotely "free movement".
    The answer is surely that, right now, we don't know.

    There's a negotiation to be done, where the Indian government will (rightly) pitch for as free movement for as many of their citizens as they think they can get away with. And one reading of the deal with Australia (which may or may not be fair or accurate, it doesn't matter- only the perception matters) is that the UK can be pushed quite hard, because it's so keen to Do Deals.

    And whatever the hyperbole, at least some of those who Took Back Control did so to stop migration from countries with large numbers of poor people. Not control it, or change the mix, but stop it.

    The likely landing point for this negotiation is going to annoy a block of currently Conservative voters; @HYUFD is accurately reporting that. That's going to be true, even if the rest of the deal is a win for the UK. Those voters may be chumps, they may be misinformed, they may even be fairly nasty people.

    But they still vote. And recently, they have voted for Boris.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    "Xi'an, what are you doing?!" An outpouring of anger and disbelief on Weibo this sleepless night as residents from a covid affected community, including seniors and small kids, were suddenly relocated to a bleak quarantine location without any supplies."

    Is China losing control?

    https://twitter.com/manyapan/status/1477396937729007622?s=20

    Omicron is the CCP's worst nightmare. Something they cannot control.
    Yes. The CCP looks serenely secure and masterly, controlling Covid with an iron fist, blah blah

    But all police states look totally secure, until they suddenly don't, and then they can fall quite quickly

    That said I am unconvinced this will topple Xi. The Chinese have gotten rich quick and very many will still be grateful....
    They do have a number of other things going on e.g. the collapse of giant real estate companies, which is the only avenue most Chinese people have to invest their money.

    I am sure they are very concerned a number of stars might align.
    It would be fecking ironic with knobs if the virus they almost certainly leaked by mistake from their own Frankenstein labs ends up ending the CCP.

    I hope the Government are planning to take advantage of China’s difficulties, both commercially and politically. How about subsidies to build large chip factories, possibly in the red wall?
    The problem with that is the scale of investment required. It is in the hundreds of billions in toto just to get it started.

    The USA is doing $250bn, and EuCo around 150-200bn Euro.

    I think that for that type of sum, there are perhaps better options for the UK.

    The industry responses I have seen have been along the lines of "good start; do more."

    If you think that this Govt is selling off the National Vaccines Centre, I doubt that until we have a changing of the guard there is much willingness to do a lot.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
    And Sunil voted for the same party as HYUFD


    Oh well
    He voted Remain, I voted Leave.

    HYUFD is not one of us. He's not a true Be-Leaver :lol:
    A man who is so opposed to Indian immigrants is a Councillor in the Party you usually vote for.

    More fool you Sunil
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited January 2022
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
    I'm not saying they aren't.
    Most of my conversations are with the very poorly educated and totally uninterested. Unlike the majority on here, who seem to hang in different circles.
    I'm trying to put across what people have heard, remembered and what they are saying now.
    That's all.
    It isn't pointing to a government bounce that's for sure.
    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.
    Not particularly to be honest. But this is a pretty insular place. The only topic round here is the virus. It is rife. And I mean rife. Literally every other person has had it or has it right now.
    New Year's Eve didn't happen in this village. Not a single firework. And the bars were apparently quiet too.
    Restrictions or not didn't make much difference. Everyone is either sick, isolating, recovering or in hiding it seems.
    I'm one of the very few fully over it. There were very few cases in the rest of the pandemic.
    I realise this may not be typical. But there you are.
    That's remarkably insular but I do recognise that village life can be incredibly insular and almost 'incestuous' (not literally) in the way it goes. I spent a year living in a village, truly hated it, I much prefer towns. However my experience was pre-social media, I'm surprised people are still so insular now.

    We cancelled our own NYE plans too because of my own positivity, but we've arranged a raincheck and while its not the same thing will be having a do-over soon. The restaurant agreed to move our deposit over to our next visit. If everyone's had Covid in the past week or so then in a week or two's time everyone should be recovered and free to go out to bars or football etc if they want to, while it is likely to still be in the news that Drakeford and Sturgeon are forbidding their peons from doing the same. They might notice then.

    Incidentally one thing people in my circle noticed was that restaurants and bars were getting bookings from Wales as people jumped the border to have fun. Knowing a lot of people so close to the border makes that more noticeable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
    And Sunil voted for the same party as HYUFD


    Oh well
    He voted Remain, I voted Leave.

    HYUFD is not one of us. He's not a true Be-Leaver :lol:
    A man who is so opposed to Indian immigrants is a Councillor in the Party you usually vote for.

    More fool you Sunil
    There is a difference between opposing open door immigration from India which I am and opposing immigration from Indians with specific skills which we need, which I don't
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523



    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.

    I don't doubt what you say, but I'd be amazed if more than 10% of the wider English electorate know (or care) what's happening in Wales. I wouldn't know unless I'd read it here, and I'm actually interested. Of that 10%, my guess is that over half would feel that current trends suggest that greater caution over Christmas was wise.
  • Prison governor arrested over bribery and drugs allegations at Wormwood Scrubs
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    Coming to HYUFD's rescue to some extent,he's right that a 5% lead mid-term is no great shakes. That said, there is really something big happening in the Red Wall, so presumably the Tory vote is holding up somewhere else, possibly less useful, such as the south. And given recent developments, it's quite impressive that 34% feel that Boris Johnson is doing well. What needs to happen for them to feel that it's become a bit suboptimal?

    Lord alone knows. Perhaps 34% is simply somewhere close to the Tory floor, representing all voters who really do not like centre-left parties and won't touch them with a ten-foot bargepole?

    One can very easily imagine a situation in which the Conservatives are ejected from power but remain the largest party in the Commons in an election where they obtain such a share of votes GB-wide (which would, inevitably, imply something healthier in England.) What would be very interesting indeed is if a Labour minority could be voted in on the back of SNP support, but the SNP MPs also maintained their abstentionist posture on legislation not applicable to Scotland. Labour at Westminster could command confidence and pass a budget, but find itself confronted with a Conservative majority that could veto most of its domestic agenda. So, paralysis. I wonder how Prime Minister Starmer would approach such a situation?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
    I think @HYUFD is right. Priti should not be ruled out as next leader. The Tory members are not averse to a bit of stiff authoritarianism.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
    I think you have hit the nail on the head at the likely 2024 strategy Pete
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills
    "Young Indians" != "all Indians". So you're already backtracking. So are you going to admit its bullshit now?

    It doesn't even say that is what would happen in the article. It says a scheme like that is one idea, of many, being discussed. Other proposals being discussed are related to students studying here, or visa application fees, neither of which are remotely "free movement".
    The answer is surely that, right now, we don't know.

    There's a negotiation to be done, where the Indian government will (rightly) pitch for as free movement for as many of their citizens as they think they can get away with. And one reading of the deal with Australia (which may or may not be fair or accurate, it doesn't matter- only the perception matters) is that the UK can be pushed quite hard, because it's so keen to Do Deals.

    And whatever the hyperbole, at least some of those who Took Back Control did so to stop migration from countries with large numbers of poor people. Not control it, or change the mix, but stop it.

    The likely landing point for this negotiation is going to annoy a block of currently Conservative voters; @HYUFD is accurately reporting that. That's going to be true, even if the rest of the deal is a win for the UK. Those voters may be chumps, they may be misinformed, they may even be fairly nasty people.

    But they still vote. And recently, they have voted for Boris.
    Many of them will have voted UKIP in 2015, voted Tory since but would go back to UKIP or RefUK if this went through or stay home or even go Labour
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    edited January 2022
    BigRich said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    Mrs PtP currently laid up with it. She describes it as 'Worse than a cold but not as bad as the flu'. She has had both jabs but not the booster which I suspect would have saved her from the infection, but she's not too bad and recovering nicely.
    Good to here she is recovering,

    Do you mind me asking why she did not get the booster?
    She would have had to take it mid-December just before flying to see her family in Canada. The probability is that she would have suffered a few days reaction so she decided to leave it until she got back. Looks a wrong decision in hindsight but it was an awkward choice at the time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    On the other hand:


    "Whatever the #CCP’s hiding in #China right now, it isn’t just #COVID19 #Omicron. On 12/23, #PRC state media reported on an unknown hemorrhagic fever virus (#HFV, maybe #hantavirus) spreading in #Xian, #Shaanxi. Now it might be in #Changsha (near #Wuhan), too. Rat attacks? Really?"

    https://twitter.com/KiraOlbert/status/1477106474853748739?s=20


    "I was browsing the SARS-CoV-2 genome and found an instance where a single point mutation could imbue SARS-CoV-2 with hemorrhagic properties. There's probably more than one. It makes me wonder if it's a different virus, or if Covid just decided to get even nastier."

    https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/status/1477381987291697152?s=20
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    Well, there's still time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633



    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.

    I don't doubt what you say, but I'd be amazed if more than 10% of the wider English electorate know (or care) what's happening in Wales. I wouldn't know unless I'd read it here, and I'm actually interested. Of that 10%, my guess is that over half would feel that current trends suggest that greater caution over Christmas was wise.
    Yes, and I don't think many care what is happening on mainland Europe either, except for how it affects their holidays. People just care mostly about their local rules, a few border towns apart.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited January 2022
    .
    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    According to Wikipedia, Xi'an is the 10th most populous city in China, which puts it on a par with Sheffield, depending on how you define urban areas in the UK.

    Hartlepool doesn't make the top 76 in the UK, which means it's the equivalent of somewhere like Taishan in China. Which is apparently the home of volleyball in China.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    From my conversations, the overwhelming attitude is that people aren't very sick because omicron is "mild". Not because the vaccines work. In fact. A great number have decided they don't.

    If people think that, they're f***ing stupid.

    You aren't that silly, are you?
    I'm not saying they aren't.
    Most of my conversations are with the very poorly educated and totally uninterested. Unlike the majority on here, who seem to hang in different circles.
    I'm trying to put across what people have heard, remembered and what they are saying now.
    That's all.
    It isn't pointing to a government bounce that's for sure.
    Have any of the crowd you're speaking to noticed the difference between England and Scotland/Wales when it comes to restrictions?

    Has anyone noticed yet they can go to the pub while people in Wales and Scotland can't?

    Given I have so much family and friends in the Merseyside/Cheshire/North Wales region I have to say that's been very noticeable in my circle. There's been a lot of jokes about it on Facebook. I've seen the An Englishman, an Englishman and an Englishman went to a bar joke multiple times now which has got a lot of likes and laughing emojis in response.

    I've yet to see anyone regretting that England is not following Wales and Scotland into harder lockdowns. I have seen Welsh relatives annoyed that they are under restrictions the English aren't.

    The differential of England not being restricted while other nations are is the foundation from which I'm expecting (and betting on) a Tory bounce to be predicated upon. But that does require people to notice the difference.
    Not particularly to be honest. But this is a pretty insular place. The only topic round here is the virus. It is rife. And I mean rife. Literally every other person has had it or has it right now.
    New Year's Eve didn't happen in this village. Not a single firework. And the bars were apparently quiet too.
    Restrictions or not didn't make much difference. Everyone is either sick, isolating, recovering or in hiding it seems.
    I'm one of the very few fully over it. There were very few cases in the rest of the pandemic.
    I realise this may not be typical. But there you are.
    That's remarkably insular but I do recognise that village life can be incredibly insular and almost 'incestuous' (not literally) in the way it goes. I spent a year living in a village, truly hated it, I much prefer towns. However my experience was pre-social media, I'm surprised people are still so insular now.

    We cancelled our own NYE plans too because of my own positivity, but we've arranged a raincheck and while its not the same thing will be having a do-over soon. The restaurant agreed to move our deposit over to our next visit. If everyone's had Covid in the past week or so then in a week or two's time everyone should be recovered and free to go out to bars or football etc if they want to, while it is likely to still be in the news that Drakeford and Sturgeon are forbidding their peons from doing the same. They might notice then.

    Incidentally one thing people in my circle noticed was that restaurants and bars were getting bookings from Wales as people jumped the border to have fun. Knowing a lot of people so close to the border makes that more noticeable.
    I'm sure it does. And I very much doubt Newcastle is the same. We are 19 miles from Central Station. Might as well be the dark side of the moon to half the folk round here. The other half commute there. But the vast majority have been off, of course, and no schools, so that just amplifies that insularity I guess.
    Am going to an event in the Toon tomorrow which is going ahead as normal. I guess I'll find out then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
    I think @HYUFD is right. Priti should not be ruled out as next leader. The Tory members are not averse to a bit of stiff authoritarianism.
    Bang on cue, Priti says her New Year aim is to tighten immigration rules

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1477422498606112769?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    Well, there's still time.
    It is possible that billions of westerners are about to learn the name Xi'an, the same way we all discovered "Wuhan". Let's hope that does not happen
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills. I could deal with Indian graduates from UK universities getting extended Visas but that goes too far
    And Sunil voted for the same party as HYUFD


    Oh well
    He voted Remain, I voted Leave.

    HYUFD is not one of us. He's not a true Be-Leaver :lol:
    A man who is so opposed to Indian immigrants is a Councillor in the Party you usually vote for.

    More fool you Sunil
    There is a difference between opposing open door immigration from India which I am and opposing immigration from Indians with specific skills which we need, which I don't
    Sunil do have a very particular set of skills, skills which you have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make you a nightmare for people like HYUFD?!!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    pigeon said:

    Coming to HYUFD's rescue to some extent,he's right that a 5% lead mid-term is no great shakes. That said, there is really something big happening in the Red Wall, so presumably the Tory vote is holding up somewhere else, possibly less useful, such as the south. And given recent developments, it's quite impressive that 34% feel that Boris Johnson is doing well. What needs to happen for them to feel that it's become a bit suboptimal?

    Lord alone knows. Perhaps 34% is simply somewhere close to the Tory floor, representing all voters who really do not like centre-left parties and won't touch them with a ten-foot bargepole?

    One can very easily imagine a situation in which the Conservatives are ejected from power but remain the largest party in the Commons in an election where they obtain such a share of votes GB-wide (which would, inevitably, imply something healthier in England.) What would be very interesting indeed is if a Labour minority could be voted in on the back of SNP support, but the SNP MPs also maintained their abstentionist posture on legislation not applicable to Scotland. Labour at Westminster could command confidence and pass a budget, but find itself confronted with a Conservative majority that could veto most of its domestic agenda. So, paralysis. I wonder how Prime Minister Starmer would approach such a situation?
    I think that he would establish a bit of competence and sanity in government, then propose some popular bills, and if they get voted down by the Tories call a further election to get a majority. It worked for Wilson in 1966 and 1975, albeit whisker thin in the autumn of 1975.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills
    "Young Indians" != "all Indians". So you're already backtracking. So are you going to admit its bullshit now?

    It doesn't even say that is what would happen in the article. It says a scheme like that is one idea, of many, being discussed. Other proposals being discussed are related to students studying here, or visa application fees, neither of which are remotely "free movement".
    The answer is surely that, right now, we don't know.

    There's a negotiation to be done, where the Indian government will (rightly) pitch for as free movement for as many of their citizens as they think they can get away with. And one reading of the deal with Australia (which may or may not be fair or accurate, it doesn't matter- only the perception matters) is that the UK can be pushed quite hard, because it's so keen to Do Deals.

    And whatever the hyperbole, at least some of those who Took Back Control did so to stop migration from countries with large numbers of poor people. Not control it, or change the mix, but stop it.

    The likely landing point for this negotiation is going to annoy a block of currently Conservative voters; @HYUFD is accurately reporting that. That's going to be true, even if the rest of the deal is a win for the UK. Those voters may be chumps, they may be misinformed, they may even be fairly nasty people.

    But they still vote. And recently, they have voted for Boris.
    Many of them will have voted UKIP in 2015, voted Tory since but would go back to UKIP or RefUK if this went through or stay home or even go Labour
    Absolutely. And whilst a lot of those constituencies are pretty safe, even with a chunky swing to RefUK etc (Romford looks safe until it Londonises quite a bit more...), some of them are surely rather more vulnerable?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

    A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

    Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

    Sensible immigration is good for everyone
    Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
    Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

    Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
    Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
    You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

    You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

    I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
    Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

    Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.
    Yes because you are an extremist libertarian who was happy to exploit the working class to win a majority in the EU referendum, then throw them under a bus as soon as you got over 50% of the vote to push your own ideological agenda!!
    Nope wrong again. Much as I would like free migration I am certainly not in any way trying to push it onto people nor top speak on their behalf. It is a personal view that I freely articulate on here in the interests of discussion. You on the other hand continually claim to speak both for your party and for whole swathes of people, most of whom you have never even met a representative of let alone spent any time with. You are an arrogant hypocrite who does not really have the interests of these people at heart except as voting fodder for your beloved party. The day they switch sides you will be decrying them as fools and unworthy of consideration.
    Given the amount of canvassing I do I would suggest I have spoken to more working class people about their views than you have
    Did they smell a bit fausty?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    China does have Hantavirus outbreaks from time to time. Some sketchy rumours that it's Marburg though I really doubt that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    It’s your inadequate leader that has put the Tories so far behind.
    They are only 5% behind tonight, not 10% behind
    16% in red wall and 100 seats gone

    I doubt those mps are as complacent or in denial as you are
    A hung parliament at most, unlike the electoral annihilation the Tories would face from the open door immigration from India you want
    Open door immigration are your twisted words, not mine nor the attitude of the Ministers in the article you referred to
    The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not.
    That is not in the article at all.
    It absolutely is
    I'm pressing the bullshit button on that one.

    image

    Please quote where it says "The right to live and work in the UK for all Indians for at least 3 years would be on the table, regardless of skills needed or not." Bullshit.
    Young Indians would be given the right to live and work in the UK for up to 3 years, regardless of skills
    "Young Indians" != "all Indians". So you're already backtracking. So are you going to admit its bullshit now?

    It doesn't even say that is what would happen in the article. It says a scheme like that is one idea, of many, being discussed. Other proposals being discussed are related to students studying here, or visa application fees, neither of which are remotely "free movement".
    The answer is surely that, right now, we don't know.

    There's a negotiation to be done, where the Indian government will (rightly) pitch for as free movement for as many of their citizens as they think they can get away with. And one reading of the deal with Australia (which may or may not be fair or accurate, it doesn't matter- only the perception matters) is that the UK can be pushed quite hard, because it's so keen to Do Deals.

    And whatever the hyperbole, at least some of those who Took Back Control did so to stop migration from countries with large numbers of poor people. Not control it, or change the mix, but stop it.

    The likely landing point for this negotiation is going to annoy a block of currently Conservative voters; @HYUFD is accurately reporting that. That's going to be true, even if the rest of the deal is a win for the UK. Those voters may be chumps, they may be misinformed, they may even be fairly nasty people.

    But they still vote. And recently, they have voted for Boris.
    Many of them will have voted UKIP in 2015, voted Tory since but would go back to UKIP or RefUK if this went through or stay home or even go Labour
    Absolutely. And whilst a lot of those constituencies are pretty safe, even with a chunky swing to RefUK etc (Romford looks safe until it Londonises quite a bit more...), some of them are surely rather more vulnerable?
    Indeed and unless the Tories won back socially liberal middle class voters who voted for Cameron but opposed Brexit and have not voted Tory since, then the next election would be lost, likely heavily so
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
    I think @HYUFD is right. Priti should not be ruled out as next leader. The Tory members are not averse to a bit of stiff authoritarianism.
    Bang on cue, Priti says her New Year aim is to tighten immigration rules

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1477422498606112769?s=20
    Hangin' and floggin' nonces is a big vote winner too.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
    Indeed, and I do just think absent some pretty drastic changes of strategy they're just going to keep bleeding votes in the kind of suburban, commutery or smallish city seats. Hardly outlandish to say they could have a real fight in bits of the Home Counties have held for generations. Now, if they're very popular with the archetypal 'Red Wall' voter, as in 2019, then that may not matter much as probably not quite at a 'Blue Wall' demographic tipping point quite yet, but if they're seen as even a pretty bad rather than a terrible govt. could be in huge trouble quite quickly and things could get very ugly, just as they did for Labour the other way.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    You must know of the Terracotta Army?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terracotta_Army
    Yes, but I didn't know there was a mega city in that region. I am sure loads of people have heard of Stone Henge but no idea about any of the towns / cities in the vicinity.
    Why Winterbourne Stoke, of course. As anyone who drives the 303 knows. That megapolis.
  • Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Coming to HYUFD's rescue to some extent,he's right that a 5% lead mid-term is no great shakes. That said, there is really something big happening in the Red Wall, so presumably the Tory vote is holding up somewhere else, possibly less useful, such as the south. And given recent developments, it's quite impressive that 34% feel that Boris Johnson is doing well. What needs to happen for them to feel that it's become a bit suboptimal?

    Lord alone knows. Perhaps 34% is simply somewhere close to the Tory floor, representing all voters who really do not like centre-left parties and won't touch them with a ten-foot bargepole?

    One can very easily imagine a situation in which the Conservatives are ejected from power but remain the largest party in the Commons in an election where they obtain such a share of votes GB-wide (which would, inevitably, imply something healthier in England.) What would be very interesting indeed is if a Labour minority could be voted in on the back of SNP support, but the SNP MPs also maintained their abstentionist posture on legislation not applicable to Scotland. Labour at Westminster could command confidence and pass a budget, but find itself confronted with a Conservative majority that could veto most of its domestic agenda. So, paralysis. I wonder how Prime Minister Starmer would approach such a situation?
    I think that he would establish a bit of competence and sanity in government, then propose some popular bills, and if they get voted down by the Tories call a further election to get a majority. It worked for Wilson in 1966 and 1975, albeit whisker thin in the autumn of 1975.
    I agree but I think you mean 74 not 75.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    .

    TOPPING said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    People in Xian have probably never heard of Hartlepool.

    Then again Hartlepool is not hosting the next winter Olympics.
    According to Wikipedia, Xi'an is the 10th most populous city in China, which puts it on a par with Sheffield, depending on how you define urban areas in the UK.

    Hartlepool doesn't make the top 76 in the UK, which means it's the equivalent of somewhere like Taishan in China. Which is apparently the home of volleyball in China.
    Classic PB knowledge!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Coming to HYUFD's rescue to some extent,he's right that a 5% lead mid-term is no great shakes. That said, there is really something big happening in the Red Wall, so presumably the Tory vote is holding up somewhere else, possibly less useful, such as the south. And given recent developments, it's quite impressive that 34% feel that Boris Johnson is doing well. What needs to happen for them to feel that it's become a bit suboptimal?

    Lord alone knows. Perhaps 34% is simply somewhere close to the Tory floor, representing all voters who really do not like centre-left parties and won't touch them with a ten-foot bargepole?

    One can very easily imagine a situation in which the Conservatives are ejected from power but remain the largest party in the Commons in an election where they obtain such a share of votes GB-wide (which would, inevitably, imply something healthier in England.) What would be very interesting indeed is if a Labour minority could be voted in on the back of SNP support, but the SNP MPs also maintained their abstentionist posture on legislation not applicable to Scotland. Labour at Westminster could command confidence and pass a budget, but find itself confronted with a Conservative majority that could veto most of its domestic agenda. So, paralysis. I wonder how Prime Minister Starmer would approach such a situation?
    I think that he would establish a bit of competence and sanity in government, then propose some popular bills, and if they get voted down by the Tories call a further election to get a majority. It worked for Wilson in 1966 and 1975, albeit whisker thin in the autumn of 1975.
    I agree but I think you mean 74 not 75.
    Yes, have just been finishing the Christmas port after a long sofa day. I might actually do something tomorrow.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Genuine question for anyone who knows Red Wall seats well. How do you think the news the government may allow greater immigration from India under trade negotiations with that country will be viewed in these constituencies? A welcome strengthening of our links with the Commonwealth, or not the Brexit they voted for?

    A trade deal with India is worth having and Truss has already agreed some immigration with Australia

    Sadly we still have an element in the party who hate immigration and they are wrong

    Sensible immigration is good for everyone
    Is it? What would we actually sell to them that we can’t already and at what cost to what section of our economy?
    Let's wait the details but to reject any idea of some immigration from an Indian trade deal is hypocrisy when it has already happened with Australia

    Just @HYUFD utter disdain for Truss on display here
    Australia had a higher gdp per capita than we do and far fewer people than India. Totally different. Singapore equally has a higher gdp per capita so no problem there. However the redwall did not vote to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India
    You don't speak for the redwall. You voted Remain. You were more than willing to ignore their views and wishes when it suited you so you don't get to try and claim them to support your extremist position now.

    You certainly don't speak for the Redwall. You used anti immigration rhetoric to get a majority for Leave from the working class in the redwall without which your side would have lost the referendum.

    I always respected the Leave vote after the referendum result. I never used the working class for my own ends then tried to throw them and what they wanted under a bus like you and your fellow extreme libertarian Leavers
    Um I am perhaps unique here in that I want no restrictions on migration from anywhere. I said it before the referendum and I have said it since. So right off the bat you are wrong there.

    Moreover I am not he one claiming to speak for the redwall or anywhere else. You are the one who seems to think they all speak with one voice and that you have the right to articulate it. You are a hypocrite whose only interest is in maintaining the Tory party in power no matter what the cost.
    Yes because you are an extremist libertarian who was happy to exploit the working class to win a majority in the EU referendum, then throw them under a bus as soon as you got over 50% of the vote to push your own ideological agenda!!
    Nope wrong again. Much as I would like free migration I am certainly not in any way trying to push it onto people nor top speak on their behalf. It is a personal view that I freely articulate on here in the interests of discussion. You on the other hand continually claim to speak both for your party and for whole swathes of people, most of whom you have never even met a representative of let alone spent any time with. You are an arrogant hypocrite who does not really have the interests of these people at heart except as voting fodder for your beloved party. The day they switch sides you will be decrying them as fools and unworthy of consideration.
    Given the amount of canvassing I do I would suggest I have spoken to more working class people about their views than you have
    Did they smell a bit fausty?

    fusty
    /ˈfʌsti/
    Learn to pronounce
    adjective
    smelling stale, damp, or stuffy.
    "the fusty odour of decay"

    fausty
    Adjective · Moldy or musty. · Stale-smelling or stuffy. · (figuratively, by extension) old-fashioned, refusing to change or update.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Rishi for PM ASAP

    This cannot go on

    Boris down to I supporter at this rate

    Step forward @HYUFD
    Personality changes are not the issue.

    No more restrictions for the vaccinated and no open border immigration are
    Of course they are

    Boris has been found out big time, and for one who is throwing polls at everyone quote me any positive from the mail on sunday
    Even Ed Miliband and Neil Kinnock had bigger leads midterm than just 5%
    I genuinely feel sorry for you and your inability to see that which is staring you in the face
    As opposed to your desire for open door immigration from India like Truss which really would put the Tories over 10% behind
    Your government's desire too surely?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/01/uk-ministers-eager-to-ease-immigration-rules-for-indian-citizens

    I thought you were a loyal Tory?
    No Patel is leading Tory opposition in Cabinet to this, Truss is pushing it, the Cabinet is divided on it
    Please provide your link to the cabinet divide
    Read the article, not difficult
    The article says Patel is opposed to it but does not say anyone else is

    Indeed the article says Ministers are said to be in agreement that a 'generous offer' on visas could be the price of the deal

    Maybe you should re-read the article
    There would be civil war in the Tory party if open door immigration from India is agreed
    If the only thing that matters to politicians is winning the next election instead of concentrating on dealing with a deadly pandemic perhaps we should consider a moretoreum on General Elections for a significant number of years.

    I don't want myself or my family sacrificed because a daft and dangerous policy optimises Boris Johnson's hopes of a majority in 2024.
    Governments deliver what their voters want, that is what they are elected for
    So we can expect some hangin' floggin' and scapegoatin: to return the Government its popularity.
    I think @HYUFD is right. Priti should not be ruled out as next leader. The Tory members are not averse to a bit of stiff authoritarianism.
    Bang on cue, Priti says her New Year aim is to tighten immigration rules

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1477422498606112769?s=20
    You really either cannot read or spread fake news

    Patel is talking about asylum seekers, not an agreed visa scheme with India or Australia

    They are two very different subjects
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
  • TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
    Not necessarily as Cameron lost all those seats too except Canterbury in 2015. They would need to be competitive in all the seats Cameron won in 2015 or May won in 2017 however to have a chance to stay in power either with a small majority or with the DUP if they lost the redwall
    Cameron held Hove and Brighton Kempton in 2015, as well as seats such as Enfield Southgate, Battersea, and Putney. None of these seats are at present held by the Tories. Can't imagine the Tories are doing to well right now in Telford or Southampton Itchen on present polling either, which Cameron picked up in 2015.
    Take away the Red Wall and any 2015 Tory gains from Labour, assume the Lib Dems pick up about a dozen seats in the south of England and the SCONS lose 3 further seats to the SNP in Scotland, and the Tories are well below the amount of seats they'd need to remain in government.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Leon said:

    On the other hand:


    "Whatever the #CCP’s hiding in #China right now, it isn’t just #COVID19 #Omicron. On 12/23, #PRC state media reported on an unknown hemorrhagic fever virus (#HFV, maybe #hantavirus) spreading in #Xian, #Shaanxi. Now it might be in #Changsha (near #Wuhan), too. Rat attacks? Really?"

    https://twitter.com/KiraOlbert/status/1477106474853748739?s=20


    "I was browsing the SARS-CoV-2 genome and found an instance where a single point mutation could imbue SARS-CoV-2 with hemorrhagic properties. There's probably more than one. It makes me wonder if it's a different virus, or if Covid just decided to get even nastier."

    https://twitter.com/NoyesJHumphrey/status/1477381987291697152?s=20

    Let us consider for a moment the circumstances under which all of the major Covid variants since the original strain have emerged. In countries with rampant community transmission, in some cases aided and abetted by a large pool of HIV sufferers.

    China is near the very bottom of a list of the world's countries, ranked by total Covid cases or cases per capita, especially since the Wuhan strain was suppressed. It has reported hardly any cases for about the last eighteen months. The likelihood of any one of the few infected people in that country, of all the possible countries in which it could happen, having incubated a variant of concern is, therefore, remote in the extreme.

    It is almost certainly the case that the authorities in Xi'an are trying to suppress one of the existing Covid variants. If there are any cases of haemorrhagic fever in circulation as well then they'll be coincidental and caused by a separate, existing infections agent.

    Let us not panic because some individual has decided to mouth off on Twitter.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
    Not necessarily as Cameron lost all those seats too except Canterbury in 2015. They would need to be competitive in all the seats Cameron won in 2015 or May won in 2017 however to have a chance to stay in power either with a small majority or with the DUP if they lost the redwall
    Cameron held Hove and Brighton Kempton in 2015, as well as seats such as Enfield Southgate, Battersea, and Putney. None of these seats are at present held by the Tories. Can't imagine the Tories are doing to well right now in Telford or Southampton Itchen on present polling either, which Cameron picked up in 2015.
    Take away the Red Wall and any 2015 Tory gains from Labour, assume the Lib Dems pick up about a dozen seats in the south of England and the SCONS lose 3 further seats to the SNP in Scotland, and the Tories are well below the amount of seats they'd need to remain in government.
    Hove went Labour in 2015

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hove_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    Yes, and yet. If it were a haemorrhagic variant of Covid, or a super-transmissable variant of Hantavirus, then the chances are this is what the early stages would look like, with no no clear information out of China for some time.
  • TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    Yes, and yet. If it were a haemorrhagic variant of Covid, or a super-transmissable variant of Hantavirus, then the chances are this is what the early stages would look like, with no no clear information out of China for some time.
    As usual lies and disinformation. Even by their zero covid approach, it is clearly more than a few hundred cases of covid, they have had these small flare ups, and they just isolate the groups of people, test everybody and within a week its back to normal.

    This is Wuhan+++ reaction.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    The good thing is that natural viral haemorrhagic fevers are spread either by insect or tick bites, or by contact with bodily fluids of infected persons, and so protective measures against them are simpler and more effective than against airborne respiratory diseases.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    Yes, and yet. If it were a haemorrhagic variant of Covid, or a super-transmissable variant of Hantavirus, then the chances are this is what the early stages would look like, with no no clear information out of China for some time.
    And ditto if it were a novel form of the bubonic plague which was airborne with an R number higher than measles.

    However, the likelihood of either of these eventualities is exceedingly low.

    Occam's razor: it's not a new virus, they're dealing with one or two existing diseases.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Pro_Rata said:

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
    Hantavirus doesn't fit the Level One Ultra-safe Hazmat suits (which do seem to be in Xi'an)

    Also, consider that this is an official statement from the Xian authorities. We know how much the CCP likes to hide away any problems. If they are willing to admit this, what is actually going on?


    "Despite the low case count compared with clusters in many cities around the world, Xian officials have imposed tough curbs on travel within and out of the city since Dec. 23, as Beijing demands each outbreak be contained quickly.

    "Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.""

    A live or die stage??? Does that square with 150 cases a day? Or does it square with something scary and weird which is why they have - apparently - just built tens of thousands of quarantine hostels and are violently arresting anyone who leaves the city?


    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xian-fights-biggest-covid-19-outbreak-chinese-city-this-year-2021-12-30/

    My guess is still: Omicron. But my word the alternatives are pretty fucking frightening


  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    The problem for the Tories is that they've basically killed their chances of gaining any serious level of support among people who are generally socially liberal, working age, but not overly left-wing, who were open to voting Tory when judged it best for their wallet. If you're 30-40, don't own a home (or even if you do but are financially insecure), don't think Brexit is a good idea, and basically want to be left alone to get on with life without endless culture wars, why on Earth would you consider voting Tory? Those people were key for Cameron. Boris replaced them with leavers who have no particular loyalty to conservatism itself, but whose relationship is entirely based on whether they receive the promises made about Brexit. Fail, whether it's your own, Brexit's fault, or not, and you're in big trouble. It was masked in 2019 by the fact Corbyn was so toxic to anyone not heavily on the left, but has gradually unravelled over the past couple of years.

    It's kind of a mirror image of the collapse of New Labour and losing people who should have been sympathetic to its goals, getting away with it for a while because its transactional vote held up, but then collapsing once those people decided they wouldn't deliver for them anymore. The formula worked as long as you were able to pinch certain voters who don't have much love for your general politics but who you promise certain things, but collapses in on itself when you can no longer make promises they believe, as under the radar you've just made your pool of voters more shallow.

    If Tories lose the Red Wall then they would need to become competitive again in constituencies such as City of Chester, Hove, Brighton Kempton, Tooting, Ilford North, Canterbury etc...
    They look a million miles from being so at moment.
    Not necessarily as Cameron lost all those seats too except Canterbury in 2015. They would need to be competitive in all the seats Cameron won in 2015 or May won in 2017 however to have a chance to stay in power either with a small majority or with the DUP if they lost the redwall
    Cameron held Hove and Brighton Kempton in 2015, as well as seats such as Enfield Southgate, Battersea, and Putney. None of these seats are at present held by the Tories. Can't imagine the Tories are doing to well right now in Telford or Southampton Itchen on present polling either, which Cameron picked up in 2015.
    Take away the Red Wall and any 2015 Tory gains from Labour, assume the Lib Dems pick up about a dozen seats in the south of England and the SCONS lose 3 further seats to the SNP in Scotland, and the Tories are well below the amount of seats they'd need to remain in government.
    Hove went Labour in 2015

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hove_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Fair enough. Point still stands if that Tories lose the Red Wall they're in trouble. For one, they won't have a bakers dozen amount of MPs in Scotland to bail them out like in 2017.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
    Hantavirus doesn't fit the Level One Ultra-safe Hazmat suits (which do seem to be in Xi'an)

    Also, consider that this is an official statement from the Xian authorities. We know how much the CCP likes to hide away any problems. If they are willing to admit this, what is actually going on?


    "Despite the low case count compared with clusters in many cities around the world, Xian officials have imposed tough curbs on travel within and out of the city since Dec. 23, as Beijing demands each outbreak be contained quickly.

    "Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.""

    A live or die stage??? Does that square with 150 cases a day? Or does it square with something scary and weird which is why they have - apparently - just built tens of thousands of quarantine hostels and are violently arresting anyone who leaves the city?


    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xian-fights-biggest-covid-19-outbreak-chinese-city-this-year-2021-12-30/

    My guess is still: Omicron. But my word the alternatives are pretty fucking frightening


    And vanishingly unlikely.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
    Hantavirus doesn't fit the Level One Ultra-safe Hazmat suits (which do seem to be in Xi'an)

    Also, consider that this is an official statement from the Xian authorities. We know how much the CCP likes to hide away any problems. If they are willing to admit this, what is actually going on?


    "Despite the low case count compared with clusters in many cities around the world, Xian officials have imposed tough curbs on travel within and out of the city since Dec. 23, as Beijing demands each outbreak be contained quickly.

    "Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.""

    A live or die stage??? Does that square with 150 cases a day? Or does it square with something scary and weird which is why they have - apparently - just built tens of thousands of quarantine hostels and are violently arresting anyone who leaves the city?


    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xian-fights-biggest-covid-19-outbreak-chinese-city-this-year-2021-12-30/

    My guess is still: Omicron. But my word the alternatives are pretty fucking frightening


    Just to cheer you up, one thing I said early on in Covid (when your predecessor was saying to mine you'd buy me a lunch if I was right that it was no big deal, no lunch necessary LOL) is that panics over new viruses happen every other year on average.

    So far this century we've had SARS, MERS, H5N1, Zika, Ebola, Swine Flu, Covid and probably more that I've forgotten. On average the next 'scare' has come two years after the last one.

    So oddly enough we're already due the next virus to scare the world after Covid already. Nice cheery thought to start the New Year with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    Coming to HYUFD's rescue to some extent,he's right that a 5% lead mid-term is no great shakes. That said, there is really something big happening in the Red Wall, so presumably the Tory vote is holding up somewhere else, possibly less useful, such as the south. And given recent developments, it's quite impressive that 34% feel that Boris Johnson is doing well. What needs to happen for them to feel that it's become a bit suboptimal?

    Lord alone knows. Perhaps 34% is simply somewhere close to the Tory floor, representing all voters who really do not like centre-left parties and won't touch them with a ten-foot bargepole?

    One can very easily imagine a situation in which the Conservatives are ejected from power but remain the largest party in the Commons in an election where they obtain such a share of votes GB-wide (which would, inevitably, imply something healthier in England.) What would be very interesting indeed is if a Labour minority could be voted in on the back of SNP support, but the SNP MPs also maintained their abstentionist posture on legislation not applicable to Scotland. Labour at Westminster could command confidence and pass a budget, but find itself confronted with a Conservative majority that could veto most of its domestic agenda. So, paralysis. I wonder how Prime Minister Starmer would approach such a situation?
    I think that he would establish a bit of competence and sanity in government, then propose some popular bills, and if they get voted down by the Tories call a further election to get a majority. It worked for Wilson in 1966 and 1975, albeit whisker thin in the autumn of 1975.
    I agree but I think you mean 74 not 75.
    Yes, have just been finishing the Christmas port after a long sofa day. I might actually do something tomorrow.
    Take out the port bottles?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
    Hantavirus doesn't fit the Level One Ultra-safe Hazmat suits (which do seem to be in Xi'an)

    Also, consider that this is an official statement from the Xian authorities. We know how much the CCP likes to hide away any problems. If they are willing to admit this, what is actually going on?


    "Despite the low case count compared with clusters in many cities around the world, Xian officials have imposed tough curbs on travel within and out of the city since Dec. 23, as Beijing demands each outbreak be contained quickly.

    "Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.""

    A live or die stage??? Does that square with 150 cases a day? Or does it square with something scary and weird which is why they have - apparently - just built tens of thousands of quarantine hostels and are violently arresting anyone who leaves the city?


    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xian-fights-biggest-covid-19-outbreak-chinese-city-this-year-2021-12-30/

    My guess is still: Omicron. But my word the alternatives are pretty fucking frightening


    And vanishingly unlikely.
    Disagree. Unlikely yes, but not vanishingly unlikely - as in all-but-impossible

    I also disagree with your analysis of the likelihood of a variant emerging in China

    1. It started there, almost certainly in the lab

    2. They have obviously lied about the prevalence, tho they have - I accept - done a good job in suppressing it

    3. China is simply enormous. 1.4bn people. A quarter of humankind. If a variant is gonna emerge anywhere the population stats say: China or India. We already had Delta from India

    4. They may have imported a variant: one theory is this came from Pakistan. China has tens of millions of workers abroad, all over the world



    "Five million Chinese will be working in Pakistan in next four years"

    Read more at:
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/five-million-chinese-will-be-working-in-pakistan-in-next-four-years/articleshow/86421638.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst


    I'm still fairly confident this is Omicron and they are freaking out because their Zero Covid prowess is threatened and they have the winter Olympics looming. But the alternatives are not "vanishingly unlikely"

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheering

    The weird flu-y outbreak in Xian which has only infected about 150 people a day, yet has sent the Chinese into a headspin and made them grimly lockdown 13 million people with special apartment welding kits and personnel who looked dressed for a landing on the sun might NOT be horrible hemmorhagic fever, a disease caught from mice in the viral family of Ebola

    No, instead it might be a new variant of Covid which simply has the same effect as hemmorhagic fever but is much more infectious. So that's alright then!


    “My personal guess is that hemorrhagic fever can’t be so transmissible. I’m afraid a new variant of Wuhan virus has emerged, and after getting infected, the illness resembles hemorrhagic fever,” the tweet reads.

    As of 2:00 a.m. on Dec. 20, the topic of “multiple cases of hemorrhagic fever in Xi’an” on Weibo has attracted 280 million people and 4,483 discussions."


    https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/12/20/outbreak-of-plague-in-northern-china-people-suffering-with-viral-hemorrhagic-fevers.html


    NB: I am wary of that source, too. But there are no reliably GOOD sources

    What is hemmorhagic fever? if I google it will I get horrid photos?
    Haemorrhagic fevers are a group of nasty viral diseases, generally with high mortality and morbidity rates, a feature of which is internal bleeding. Examples include such lovable old favorites as Ebola, Lassa, Marburgs, CCHF, and hanta
    Something positive to start the New Year on.....I am still going with its Omicron and CCP are shitting themselves that it getting out of hand....fingers crossed.
    FWIW, it looks like that part of the outbreak is being reported as an endemic hantavirus.
    Hantavirus doesn't fit the Level One Ultra-safe Hazmat suits (which do seem to be in Xi'an)

    Also, consider that this is an official statement from the Xian authorities. We know how much the CCP likes to hide away any problems. If they are willing to admit this, what is actually going on?


    "Despite the low case count compared with clusters in many cities around the world, Xian officials have imposed tough curbs on travel within and out of the city since Dec. 23, as Beijing demands each outbreak be contained quickly.

    "Xian has reached a live-or-die stage in its fight against the virus," Zhang Fenghu, a city government official, told a news conference on Wednesday.""

    A live or die stage??? Does that square with 150 cases a day? Or does it square with something scary and weird which is why they have - apparently - just built tens of thousands of quarantine hostels and are violently arresting anyone who leaves the city?


    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xian-fights-biggest-covid-19-outbreak-chinese-city-this-year-2021-12-30/

    My guess is still: Omicron. But my word the alternatives are pretty fucking frightening


    And vanishingly unlikely.
    Normality bias accusation almost certainly incoming from someone (I cannot face using normalcy, even for a phrase that demands it). But, tbf, such bias works most of the time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
  • Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
    There's a similar scam in South Africa. People pretend to be broken down on the side of the road, when a Good Samaritan pulls over to offer aid they get carjacked.

    A friend of a friend was shot by carjackers using this scam. Thankfully he survived.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
    There's a similar scam in South Africa. People pretend to be broken down on the side of the road, when a Good Samaritan pulls over to offer aid they get carjacked.

    A friend of a friend was shot by carjackers using this scam. Thankfully he survived.
    I am surprised they even bother doing that.

    From last year, this viral video of the security running behind a truck with mobile phones....no worrying about any stopping, just pepper the van with gunfire while doing 60mph on the highway.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dnT1a00czA
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited January 2022
    BIG G is right yet again, HYUFD is getting all in a mess in the threads just caught up on

    HYUFD seems to have forgotten what leave campaign openly and honestly promised all the leave voters at the time in 2016 - end to local EU immigration, so there can be much more immigration from further afield.

    Patel led on delivering Indian voters for Brexit with promise of immigration from India.

    https://www.newsgram.com/indian-restaurants-at-risk-if-britain-remained-in-eu-priti-patel

    https://www.ft.com/content/94adcefa-1dd5-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15

    I love curry I do FWIW
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited January 2022
    I remember thinking back in 2016, this was very honest and decent from the leave campaign, to so openly promise less from EU - Poles and Spanish whose cuisine us Brits don’t like (and who largely tend not to stay forever anyway being local economic migrants) much more easy out EU for immigration from British Empire - India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and the Windies whose cuisines we lurrrrv.

    Having been out for the count for 7 hours, I could murder a curry right now. 🥘
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
    There's a similar scam in South Africa. People pretend to be broken down on the side of the road, when a Good Samaritan pulls over to offer aid they get carjacked.

    A friend of a friend was shot by carjackers using this scam. Thankfully he survived.
    I know of somebody in SA who was faced with a person lying in the road, and had a split second decision to stop - or drive their 4x4 into a ditch to go round them. Got home, reported it to the police. "No madam, there was no body on the road....but there were two bodies in the ditch you drove through, waiting to pounce if you'd stopped...."
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    The videos that came out of Wuhan - and, to a lesser extent, Iran and Italy - are a great mystery. And a whole complex of theories has emerged around them

    Remember the Chinese woman eating the bat? Turned out to be from Indonesia. Who posted it? Why? Myriad possibilities

    And the videos of corpses uncollected in Wuhan? Seemed bizarre and faked, yet in retrospect quite plausible. Indeed likely true. Remember Lombardy, Madrid, India

    My best guess is that some of the vids were real - like the corpse vid - and others were faked. Some by anti-Chinese activists, some by the Chinese govt - to frighten the world for various reasons - and some by nutters and trolls

    As for “zero worry”, no. There is no cause for serious worry, yet, but *zero* is complacent
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022
    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    Actually they did have people collapsing in the streets in the US trying to get to a hospital. Also, remember it is a known fact with COVID your blood oxygen can fall to life threatening levels and you still feel ok, then rapidly you fall off a cliff. There have definitely plenty of people in the west who have died because they didn't attempt to receive treatment when in this state (and we were all been told to stay in our houses) or got to hospital right on the verge and immediately were in massive trouble.

    I don't think it is impossible in China where you are expected to fend for yourself and few people will help you, that people will have got into the low oxygen state, not known, then gone pop.

    In the UK for instance we housed all the homeless, otherwise we might well have seen this happening.
  • Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
    There's a similar scam in South Africa. People pretend to be broken down on the side of the road, when a Good Samaritan pulls over to offer aid they get carjacked.

    A friend of a friend was shot by carjackers using this scam. Thankfully he survived.
    I know of somebody in SA who was faced with a person lying in the road, and had a split second decision to stop - or drive their 4x4 into a ditch to go round them. Got home, reported it to the police. "No madam, there was no body on the road....but there were two bodies in the ditch you drove through, waiting to pounce if you'd stopped...."
    Which part of SA?

    I recently returned from Pietermaritzburg. I've felt less safe in Gloucestershire.
  • Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    Actually they did have people collapsing in the streets in the US trying to get to a hospital. Also, remember it is a known fact with COVID your blood oxygen can fall to life threatening levels and you still feel ok, then rapidly you fall off a cliff. There have definitely plenty of people in the west who have died because they didn't attempt to receive treatment when in this state or got to hospital right on the verge and immediately were in massive trouble.

    I don't think it is impossible in China where you are expected to fend for yourself and few people will help you, that people will have got into the low oxygen state, not known, then gone pop.

    In the UK for instance we housed all the homeless, otherwise we might well have seen this happening.
    Indeed. The memsahib specifically recalls the beneficial effect of oxygen when she had covid back in the early days of the pandemic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    My understanding in China a common con is pretend being hurt then if somebody tries to help them they claim they hurt more doing so and they need to pay compensation....thus nobody goes near people in distress.

    Here is an explainer....
    https://youtu.be/6Y4vXYfa06k
    There's a similar scam in South Africa. People pretend to be broken down on the side of the road, when a Good Samaritan pulls over to offer aid they get carjacked.

    A friend of a friend was shot by carjackers using this scam. Thankfully he survived.
    I know of somebody in SA who was faced with a person lying in the road, and had a split second decision to stop - or drive their 4x4 into a ditch to go round them. Got home, reported it to the police. "No madam, there was no body on the road....but there were two bodies in the ditch you drove through, waiting to pounce if you'd stopped...."
    Which part of SA?

    I recently returned from Pietermaritzburg. I've felt less safe in Gloucestershire.
    The Plessislaer policing area in Pietermaritzburg continues to live up to its name of being one of the country’s most dangerous places to live.

    https://www.news24.com/witness/news/kzn/plessislaer-in-pietermaritzburg-sees-spike-in-serious-crimes-as-quarterly-crime-stats-put-spotlight-on-unrest-20211120

    Most dangerous cities

    Pretoria was ranked as the most dangerous city in the country in 2020/21, with the highest crime score and lowest safety score. Pietermaritzburg, which topped the local ranking in 2019/20, dropped to fourth overall, with both Johannesburg and Durban now perceived to be more dangerous.

    https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/462264/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-south-africa/

    I am sure there are rough parts of places like Cheltenham etc, but I think you may be looking through rose tinted glasses. The level of crime, especially violent crime in South Africa, is undeniably one of the worst in the world (outside of countries actually at war).
  • Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    Actually they did have people collapsing in the streets in the US trying to get to a hospital. Also, remember it is a known fact with COVID your blood oxygen can fall to life threatening levels and you still feel ok, then rapidly you fall off a cliff. There have definitely plenty of people in the west who have died because they didn't attempt to receive treatment when in this state or got to hospital right on the verge and immediately were in massive trouble.

    I don't think it is impossible in China where you are expected to fend for yourself and few people will help you, that people will have got into the low oxygen state, not known, then gone pop.

    In the UK for instance we housed all the homeless, otherwise we might well have seen this happening.
    Indeed. The memsahib specifically recalls the beneficial effect of oxygen when she had covid back in the early days of the pandemic.
    Thanks, Francis.

    As you can imagine, I am not unacquainted with some of the rougher parts of the world. All I can report is that I didn't feel unsafe or threatened whilst there. I wouldn't say the same for every part of this country, and as for the USA....

    Obviously it depends which part and how you conduct yourself but I certainly wouldn't put SA on the 'avoid' list. In fact, the Mrs and I are thinking of buying a small holiday flat in Cape Town and we certainly wouldn't be doing that if we didn't think it reasonably safe.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    Actually they did have people collapsing in the streets in the US trying to get to a hospital. Also, remember it is a known fact with COVID your blood oxygen can fall to life threatening levels and you still feel ok, then rapidly you fall off a cliff. There have definitely plenty of people in the west who have died because they didn't attempt to receive treatment when in this state or got to hospital right on the verge and immediately were in massive trouble.

    I don't think it is impossible in China where you are expected to fend for yourself and few people will help you, that people will have got into the low oxygen state, not known, then gone pop.

    In the UK for instance we housed all the homeless, otherwise we might well have seen this happening.
    Indeed. The memsahib specifically recalls the beneficial effect of oxygen when she had covid back in the early days of the pandemic.
    Thanks, Francis.

    As you can imagine, I am not unacquainted with some of the rougher parts of the world. All I can report is that I didn't feel unsafe or threatened whilst there. I wouldn't say the same for every part of this country, and as for the USA....

    Obviously it depends which part and how you conduct yourself but I certainly wouldn't put SA on the 'avoid' list. In fact, the Mrs and I are thinking of buying a small holiday flat in Cape Town and we certainly wouldn't be doing that if we didn't think it reasonably safe.
    Each to their own, but the facts on South Africa are undeniable and unlike many countries aren't primarily limited to gang turf wars which most people will never encounter. Murder, rape, vehicle hijackings, kidnapping, home invasions, all crimes which target "civilians" are up there with the worst in the world, and extremely normal for high level of violence to be used against those victims regardless of if they give in or not.

    And the police are not only corrupt, they are so under-resourced you are highly unlikely they will ever come to your aid, so anybody with any money requires private security.

    I know a number of South Africans who have fled to the UK, and their stories are horrific. They all have been victims of ultra-violent crime and say that everybody they know has at some point. That just isn't a situation people in the UK in general ever face.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Finnish President in short: If Russia invades Ukraine, we join NATO.

    https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1477380867748159489?s=21
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited January 2022

    Endillion said:

    Leon said:

    A video very reminiscent of early Wuhan


    Seems authentic. Xi'an is famous for its ancient walls and moat, and there they are. The weather is wintry and clear, which is correct. The people on the otherwise deserted streets are apparently migrant workers, unable to get home now the city is quarantined. Masks can be seen

    And in the street a man lies, apparently seriously ill, shuddering and jerking, and no one goes to help, because of the fear of infection?


    https://twitter.com/AIbiuld/status/1476796587384860672?s=20


    It could be fake, but why bother doing such an elaborate fake, and how would you even do it?

    As you mention, you were posting similar videos from Wuhan nearly two years ago, and theorising that we in the West would soon see similar displays. It didn't materialise then, and it won't now, either. I have no explanation for why, but still: zero worry.
    Actually they did have people collapsing in the streets in the US trying to get to a hospital. Also, remember it is a known fact with COVID your blood oxygen can fall to life threatening levels and you still feel ok, then rapidly you fall off a cliff. There have definitely plenty of people in the west who have died because they didn't attempt to receive treatment when in this state or got to hospital right on the verge and immediately were in massive trouble.

    I don't think it is impossible in China where you are expected to fend for yourself and few people will help you, that people will have got into the low oxygen state, not known, then gone pop.

    In the UK for instance we housed all the homeless, otherwise we might well have seen this happening.
    Indeed. The memsahib specifically recalls the beneficial effect of oxygen when she had covid back in the early days of the pandemic.
    Thanks, Francis.

    As you can imagine, I am not unacquainted with some of the rougher parts of the world. All I can report is that I didn't feel unsafe or threatened whilst there. I wouldn't say the same for every part of this country, and as for the USA....

    Obviously it depends which part and how you conduct yourself but I certainly wouldn't put SA on the 'avoid' list. In fact, the Mrs and I are thinking of buying a small holiday flat in Cape Town and we certainly wouldn't be doing that if we didn't think it reasonably safe.
    Each to their own, but the facts on South Africa are undeniable and unlike many countries aren't primarily limited to gang turf wars which most people will never encounter. Murder, rape, vehicle hijackings, kidnapping, home invasions, all crimes which target "civilians" are up there with the worst in the world, and extremely normal for high level of violence to be used against those victims regardless of if they give in or not.

    And the police are not only corrupt, they are so under-resourced you are highly unlikely they will ever come to your aid, so anybody with any money requires private security.

    I know a number of South Africans who have fled to the UK, and their stories are horrific. They all have been victims of ultra-violent crime and say that everybody they know has at some point. That just isn't a situation people in the UK in general ever face.
    ALL of my friends with close SA connections have horror stories. Literally, all. The elderly mother of one was brutally burgled, beaten and nearly killed in a supposedly “safe” town

    It’s a hideous toxic toilet of crime. That’s just a fact. The stats don’t lie


    “It's a tough job anywhere in the world, but especially in this country of almost 60 million people, where someone is killed every 25 minutes and 115 rapes are reported every day.”

    https://www.africanews.com/2021/09/22/the-woman-who-profiles-south-africa-s-most-vicious-crimes/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    And by any definition Cape Town is not “reasonably safe”. It has the highest murder rate of any city in Africa, and manages to be more homicidal than Kingston, Jamaica and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico - both notoriously violent cities

    Impressive

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/243797/ranking-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-the-world-by-murder-rate-per-capita/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    BIG G is right yet again, HYUFD is getting all in a mess in the threads just caught up on

    HYUFD seems to have forgotten what leave campaign openly and honestly promised all the leave voters at the time in 2016 - end to local EU immigration, so there can be much more immigration from further afield.

    Patel led on delivering Indian voters for Brexit with promise of immigration from India.

    https://www.newsgram.com/indian-restaurants-at-risk-if-britain-remained-in-eu-priti-patel

    https://www.ft.com/content/94adcefa-1dd5-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15

    I love curry I do FWIW

    If you think white working class Leave voters voted to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India you are being astonishingly naive.

    In any case the points system we now have can bring in any curry specialists we need from India
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    TimT said:

    How many cities in China have more than 10 million people? Until 2 weeks ago I had never even heard of Xian Ciry.

    You must know of the Terracotta Army?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terracotta_Army
    Yes, but I didn't know there was a mega city in that region. I am sure loads of people have heard of Stone Henge but no idea about any of the towns / cities in the vicinity.
    Why Winterbourne Stoke, of course. As anyone who drives the 303 knows. That megapolis.
    I had thought the it was actually within the parish of Amesbury, due to the town having an extended hinterland, but my phone is not able to check the precise line for some reason. Which if so would place it by the Amesbury/Durrington/Bulford enormity.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    BIG G is right yet again, HYUFD is getting all in a mess in the threads just caught up on

    HYUFD seems to have forgotten what leave campaign openly and honestly promised all the leave voters at the time in 2016 - end to local EU immigration, so there can be much more immigration from further afield.

    Patel led on delivering Indian voters for Brexit with promise of immigration from India.

    https://www.newsgram.com/indian-restaurants-at-risk-if-britain-remained-in-eu-priti-patel

    https://www.ft.com/content/94adcefa-1dd5-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15

    I love curry I do FWIW

    If you think white working class Leave voters voted to replace free movement from Eastern Europe with free movement from India you are being astonishingly naive.

    In any case the points system we now have can bring in any curry specialists we need from India
    You are wrong HY. Well you are sort of right because you are clearly trying to twist it a bit into another question.

    Look at the links. What was great about Priti Patel in the leave campaign she was so open and honest about saying to the Indian subcontinent community precisely that - being in EU blocks immigration from India sub continent. Patel promised them more immigration, got them on side, got Brexit over the line.

    These are facts HY.

    Some may say “there’s too much of you lot” but Patel was promising complete opposite openly and honestly in the campaign. Look at it, it’s fact.
This discussion has been closed.