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Batley & Spen – the most significant 2021 by-election? – politicalbetting.com
Batley & Spen – the most significant 2021 by-election? – politicalbetting.com
2021 was a great year for Westminster by-elections with five contests taking place in England and three of them resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. In overall terms the Tories and LAB have come out with one fewer seat each while the LDs have gained two.
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“A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.
At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.
I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.
(Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”
++++
No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.
It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown
One I think. OB+S.
The markets didn't know their stuff. Long may it continue!
For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs
Fur coats: neutral
“Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
Someone with an IQ of 70 is going to appear stupid, because they ARE stupid. The IQ measurement is correct
As to whether IQ tests are culturally biased, are used correctly, have a role in education (SATS are basically IQ tests) all those are long thorny difficult arguments - for another time
1 January 2022
Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.
“The United Arab Emirates will ban unvaccinated citizens from travelling abroad from 10 January, the state news agency WAM reported on Saturday, citing the foreign ministry and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority.
The report said that vaccinated citizens would also require a booster shot to be eligible to travel. The ban will not apply to those with medical or humanitarian exemptions.”
(Guardian live blog)
It will soon become impossible to live without the jabs?
For certain professions being good at these narrow set of traits are essential, for many others they are not.
Or indeed for a happy existence.
I was genuinely so startled by your use of a clearly racist epithet I didn’t comprehend your point. You’re lucky not to be banned. Mods must be in a benign mood - or drunk
Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.
The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:
The polling tables are here:
https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
9. Bitcoin to collapse.
10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.
There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.
I once read some fascinating research on the IQs of Nobel prize winners in science. The conclusion was that the ideal (and most frequent) IQs were in the 140-160 range. That’s the sweet spot where you are extremely smart but still likely to have good social skills - and you’re able to empathise and build a team around you. Which leads to prizes
Above 160 people get increasingly eccentric (or they so appear to everyone else) and become so clever they can’t figure out why regular humans do what they do - like Spock on Star Trek
right. As always
Did Freedom Day - an end to restrictions - come too soon? -
Remain: 57
Leave: 39
The LDs have not held a seat they won from the Tories in a by election at the subsequent general election since Romsey in 2001 and I doubt North Shropshire will be any different
Bitcoin and other crypto collapses are fairly regular events, but sooner or later one will become terminal, quite possible with the economic stresses of this year. It is just a giant Ponzi scheme, and will be put out of business when a digital currency backed by a large central bank launches.
I think Dems will lose both houses in the mid terms, and that Russia will engage in the Ukraine. Not a total invasion, but perhaps a formal invasion and annexation of the Donbas and adjacent Oblasts. They might try for Odessa too.
"Cavendish inherited two fortunes that were so large that Jean Baptiste Biot called him "the richest of all the savants and the most knowledgeable of the rich". At his death, Cavendish was the largest depositor in the Bank of England. He was a shy man who was uncomfortable in society and avoided it when he could. He could speak to only one person at a time, and only if the person were known to him and male.[33] He conversed little, always dressed in an old-fashioned suit, and developed no known deep personal attachments outside his family. Cavendish was taciturn and solitary and regarded by many as eccentric. He communicated with his female servants only by notes. By one account, Cavendish had a back staircase added to his house to avoid encountering his housekeeper, because he was especially shy of women.
...
His only social outlet was the Royal Society Club, whose members dined together before weekly meetings. Cavendish seldom missed these meetings, and was profoundly respected by his contemporaries. However, his shyness made those who "sought his views... speak as if into vacancy. If their remarks were...worthy, they might receive a mumbled reply, but more often than not they would hear a peeved squeak (his voice appears to have been high-pitched) and turn to find an actual vacancy and the sight of Cavendish fleeing to find a more peaceful corner".
A total of 874 cars have been set alight during New Years Eve celebrations in France, police say. Car burning has effectively become an annual event in French suburbs since riots in 2005 in several cities.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59847372
Funny way of supporting the French car industry.
If that is the “biggest political story” of 2022 it means 2022 is going to be INCREDIBLY boring.
I pray you are right
12. No matter what else, Cressida Dick to remain in post. Always a banker.
Then again, I avoided mention of HMQ as it seemed in poor taste but if we're talking about biggest political stories of the year...
So, lockdown advocated by an equal number, allowing for MOE, of each in November.
However Macron's defeat would be a humiliation for him and the movement he founded just 4 years ago and a triumphant return for the French centre right which looked eclipsed by Macron and Le Pen only a few months ago. It would likely be followed by victory in the legislative elections and the first conservative election win in a G7 nation outside Japan since the Tories win in 2019.
Good for Boris too, Pecresse styles herself as a French Thatcher and would likely have better relations with him than Macron does
Alpha Men Assemble, an online collective with more than 2,800 followers, has planned meetings to practice 'training and strategy tactics' in Staffordshire, London and Lanarkshire, Scotland.
Mail
162,572 cases / 154 deaths
Cases are about the same as yesterday. There are some big days based on "specimen date" though.
I reckon the poet Gerard Manley Hopkins was ASD as well. Phenomenally gauche and awkward, yet clearly a linguistic genius
Personally I expect the Labour standing to drift down in the polls this year back to level pegging as the recemr Tory collapse was due to Johnson rather than Starmers doing.
I also expect a repeat of the mediocre 2018 local election results for Starmer.
This year is also possibly make or break for the Lib Dems.
Basis: Warwick model, omicron 80% less severe than Delta, no further NPIs in England.
I said that what I wanted was to compute some sort of metric that wouldn't be normally distributed, so that I could separate changes in the mean background from changes to the phenomenon. He said that this was a pipedream because in the natural world pretty much everything ends up being a normal distribution and there's no escaping it.
I found a few interesting papers that looked like they were worth following up on, and I chased my pipedream for a year or so, and got nowhere. I'm now no longer working as a scientist.
If I found anything that wasn't normally distributed there's no way I'd ruin it by dragooning it into a normal distribution. What a waste!
I am sure you are more scrupulous in your hospital duties. For which, by the way, many thanks (sincerely).
I suspect @kinabalu has turned out right, and HMG is gonna tough out Omicron with no further restrictions in England. It will be a bruising January in the NHS. Good luck, doc
I'm not a fan of dry January as it is such a bleak time of year to go sober. But I did manage it last year, for first time. In fact pushed on all through the winter lockdown until early April.
I don't think describing remainers as risk averse is incorrect, remain was the status quo and the safe option. Brexit was and still is a bit of a leap into the dark.
I am also confident HMQ will make her platinum jubilee
It's also remarkable that Macron is polling the exact same 24% that he got in the first round last time considering everything that had happened .
I don't like Macron but I can't say I have the energy to hate him even if I think the curent state of the left in France is sad.
My view, for what it's worth.
Very very deep purple yet to be added, followed presumably be totally black sabbath.
The true French Left is too marginal, and the French system strongly favours Centrists.
Leavers tended to be in small businesses, farmers, fishermen or pensioners or the working class
Need to loose some weight and for me alcohol => munchies => calories => fat. So stopping the booze is an essential pre-condition to shedding a few lbs.