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Batley & Spen – the most significant 2021 by-election? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageBatley & Spen – the most significant 2021 by-election? – politicalbetting.com

2021 was a great year for Westminster by-elections with five contests taking place in England and three of them resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. In overall terms the Tories and LAB have come out with one fewer seat each while the LDs have gained two.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    I think we are in for a Literary Digest level fail in polling next GE. The Tory voters they are losing in droves are precisely the people who would not in 1m years do an online poll.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Secondly, the most important by election was NS. An astonishing fail by the tories.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,059
    IshmaelZ said:

    I think we are in for a Literary Digest level fail in polling next GE. The Tory voters they are losing in droves are precisely the people who would not in 1m years do an online poll.

    It has always been argued that online polling favours the Tories
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    IshmaelZ said:

    I think we are in for a Literary Digest level fail in polling next GE. The Tory voters they are losing in droves are precisely the people who would not in 1m years do an online poll.

    It has always been argued that online polling favours the Tories
    It might do, but the ones they lost in NS use the computer to claim payments from defra, and nothing else.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    How many of the 5 did the favourite win?
    One I think. OB+S.
    The markets didn't know their stuff. Long may it continue!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    The fall of Nut Nut would be a start. Equivalent welfare standards in the Australian trade deal. Stuff like that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    dixiedean said:

    How many of the 5 did the favourite win?
    One I think. OB+S.
    The markets didn't know their stuff. Long may it continue!

    I only starting browsing PB (as a lurker for many years) because I convinced myself that the betting markets were best at predicting election outcomes. That must have been a long time ago because it's not been the case for many years.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    dixiedean said:

    How many of the 5 did the favourite win?
    One I think. OB+S.
    The markets didn't know their stuff. Long may it continue!

    And yet, OB&S is probably the most representative of the state of play.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    IshmaelZ said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    The fall of Nut Nut would be a start. Equivalent welfare standards in the Australian trade deal. Stuff like that.
    So scratch Mr J and Ms Truss. That leaves Mr S vs Ms P, unless a dark horse such as the Minister for Defence wins.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,718
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I think we are in for a Literary Digest level fail in polling next GE. The Tory voters they are losing in droves are precisely the people who would not in 1m years do an online poll.

    It has always been argued that online polling favours the Tories
    It might do, but the ones they lost in NS use the computer to claim payments from defra, and nothing else.
    ...or they did...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    edited January 1
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    About half; that 100 is [edit] scaled off a mean not a mode or a median.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited January 1
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    Anyone who thinks ‘average’ intelligence means that half the population falls above and below is by definition revealing themselves below it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875
    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Hmm. Plenty of those happening already. Tax free. Presumably you mean legalising them? Lots of nice VAT on the tickets.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    We’ve been through this. It’s simply untrue

    Someone with an IQ of 70 is going to appear stupid, because they ARE stupid. The IQ measurement is correct

    As to whether IQ tests are culturally biased, are used correctly, have a role in education (SATS are basically IQ tests) all those are long thorny difficult arguments - for another time
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,632
    Before you click over to the COVID dashboard to look at today s numbers, this has come on there:

    1 January 2022
    Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1
    Note....lots of PCR testing availability seems to have appeared. New tactics for load balancing?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 3,689
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
    You went absolutely mental a few months ago about something or other being killed on the Faroes. Dolphins or whales or I don't know what. There was days of it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
    You went absolutely mental a few months ago about something or other being killed on the Faroes. Dolphins or whales or I don't know what. There was days of it.
    Are you accusing me of inconsistent mood-shifts???!!!!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,471
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    About half; that 100 is [edit] scaled off a mean not a mode or a median.
    Head injuries and dementia mean there is a fat tail at the bottom.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    The UAE turns the screw on the anti-vaxxers



    “The United Arab Emirates will ban unvaccinated citizens from travelling abroad from 10 January, the state news agency WAM reported on Saturday, citing the foreign ministry and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority.

    The report said that vaccinated citizens would also require a booster shot to be eligible to travel. The ban will not apply to those with medical or humanitarian exemptions.”

    (Guardian live blog)

    It will soon become impossible to live without the jabs?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.

    For certain professions being good at these narrow set of traits are essential, for many others they are not.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,718
    BigRich said:

    Before you click over to the COVID dashboard to look at today s numbers, this has come on there:

    1 January 2022
    Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.

    What a country, we can't even do admin efficiently. Sack the bloody lot of them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
    I don't see how you can abandon Afghans in favour of doggies without some sort of mental dehumanisation like that. Genuinely.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    About half; that 100 is [edit] scaled off a mean not a mode or a median.
    Head injuries and dementia mean there is a fat tail at the bottom.
    I am not sure it is as simple as that. The data are somehow sort of dragooned into a normal distribution, whether they want to be one or not.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited January 1

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Or indeed for a happy existence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
    I don't see how you can abandon Afghans in favour of doggies without some sort of mental dehumanisation like that. Genuinely.
    Ah, you mean the dogs in Kabul. Yes, I completely agree. Ridiculous

    I was genuinely so startled by your use of a clearly racist epithet I didn’t comprehend your point. You’re lucky not to be banned. Mods must be in a benign mood - or drunk
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Projection on your part methinks. I don't think that there is much difference between Leavers and Remainers on the issue. Indeed those most keen on more restrictions are the retired, who are mostly Leavers.

    Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.

    The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:

    The polling tables are here:

    https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    BigRich said:

    Before you click over to the COVID dashboard to look at today s numbers, this has come on there:

    1 January 2022
    Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.

    What a country, we can't even do admin efficiently. Sack the bloody lot of them.
    They could at least give us a third order estimate as to when they expect to have an estimated time to share with us.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240

    IshmaelZ said:

    I think we are in for a Literary Digest level fail in polling next GE. The Tory voters they are losing in droves are precisely the people who would not in 1m years do an online poll.

    It has always been argued that online polling favours the Tories
    Phone polling favoured the Tories during the run-up to the 2015 election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Absolutely. Many of the "brightest" academics I have encountered have terrible soft skills, and why it is they do research and I doubt could ever on their own leverage their abilities to run a business. They often also lack any vision to see that something they have come up with could be applied to a slightly different problem and by much more valuable from a business sense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    About half; that 100 is [edit] scaled off a mean not a mode or a median.
    Head injuries and dementia mean there is a fat tail at the bottom.
    And various learning disabilities. I would expect median IQ to be higher than mean, albeit modestly. Not that IQ is fixed, in that people can be trained to get higher scores, and quite likely it alters with ageing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Or indeed for a happy existence.
    Yes that’s fair. Indeed there is evidence that extremely high IQs are associated with autism spectrum disorders, ie a severe lack of social skills and inability to empathize. Einstein and Newton have both been categorised as “autistic” (FWIW - and NB both were still spectacularly successful scientists)

    I once read some fascinating research on the IQs of Nobel prize winners in science. The conclusion was that the ideal (and most frequent) IQs were in the 140-160 range. That’s the sweet spot where you are extremely smart but still likely to have good social skills - and you’re able to empathise and build a team around you. Which leads to prizes

    Above 160 people get increasingly eccentric (or they so appear to everyone else) and become so clever they can’t figure out why regular humans do what they do - like Spock on Star Trek
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 17,673

    Note....lots of PCR testing availability seems to have appeared. New tactics for load balancing?

    Thanks got one for tomorrow
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    @IshmaelZ what would win rural folk back?

    Bringing back badger-baiting and dog-fights, apparently
    Very sarky. Bill coming up to ban foie gras and fur coats, whose genesis is so obvious we could call it Carrie's Law. Probably formally enshrines the moral priority of pet dogs over ragheads, too. And you might vote these people back in?
    I’m fairly unsentimental about animals. eg I’m not particularly concerned by hunting - tho I believe my whizzy AI fox-drone idea solves the problem for all.

    However I can definitely see the case for banning foie gras, delicious as it is. And lockdown - unexpectedly - has made me think more of the appalling way we treat highly sentient creatures like pigs

    Fur coats: neutral

    “Ragheads”?! Wtf? Really?
    You went absolutely mental a few months ago about something or other being killed on the Faroes. Dolphins or whales or I don't know what. There was days of it.
    Are you accusing me of inconsistent mood-shifts???!!!!
    I think your mood-shifts are quite consistent tbf.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    Nice list. Pretty much agree, although not on 5. That would be a total dream and the world could breath a sigh of relief. Doubt it will happen.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Projection on your part methinks. I don't think that there is much difference between Leavers and Remainers on the issue. Indeed those most keen on more restrictions are the retired, who are mostly Leavers.

    Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.

    The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:

    The polling tables are here:

    https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
    Er, what? Your very own evidence shows that I’m
    right. As always

    Did Freedom Day - an end to restrictions - come too soon? -

    Remain: 57
    Leave: 39
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Absolutely. Many of the "brightest" academics I have encountered have terrible soft skills, and why it is they do research and I doubt could ever on their own leverage their abilities to run a business. They often also lack any vision to see that something they have come up with could be applied to a slightly different problem and by much more valuable from a business sense.
    Definitely saw that in IT too when I was working. The best were those with solid technical skills and good soft skills.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 1
    IshmaelZ said:

    Secondly, the most important by election was NS. An astonishing fail by the tories.

    The Tories still got just over half the voteshare in the by election they did in North Shropshire in 2019. It was a midterm protest vote nothing more, the LDs are an easy free hit in by elections.

    The LDs have not held a seat they won from the Tories in a by election at the subsequent general election since Romsey in 2001 and I doubt North Shropshire will be any different
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited January 1
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    Tbf, I also suggested Remainers might on the whole be more risk averse but your point's a good one. I think you might be right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    I would agree with 1,2,3,9,10.

    Bitcoin and other crypto collapses are fairly regular events, but sooner or later one will become terminal, quite possible with the economic stresses of this year. It is just a giant Ponzi scheme, and will be put out of business when a digital currency backed by a large central bank launches.

    I think Dems will lose both houses in the mid terms, and that Russia will engage in the Ukraine. Not a total invasion, but perhaps a formal invasion and annexation of the Donbas and adjacent Oblasts. They might try for Odessa too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,799
    Leon said:

    The UAE turns the screw on the anti-vaxxers



    “The United Arab Emirates will ban unvaccinated citizens from travelling abroad from 10 January, the state news agency WAM reported on Saturday, citing the foreign ministry and the National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority.

    The report said that vaccinated citizens would also require a booster shot to be eligible to travel. The ban will not apply to those with medical or humanitarian exemptions.”

    (Guardian live blog)

    It will soon become impossible to live without the jabs?

    Singapore now requires vaccination for renewal of residence. Doesn’t affect Singaporean citizens, but for foreigners it’s “get jabbed or get out”.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Or indeed for a happy existence.
    Yes that’s fair. Indeed there is evidence that extremely high IQs are associated with autism spectrum disorders, ie a severe lack of social skills and inability to empathize. Einstein and Newton have both been categorised as “autistic” (FWIW - and NB both were still spectacularly successful scientists)

    I once read some fascinating research on the IQs of Nobel prize winners in science. The conclusion was that the ideal (and most frequent) IQs were in the 140-160 range. That’s the sweet spot where you are extremely smart but still likely to have good social skills - and you’re able to empathise and build a team around you. Which leads to prizes

    Above 160 people get increasingly eccentric (or they so appear to everyone else) and become so clever they can’t figure out why regular humans do what they do - like Spock on Star Trek
    See also Henry Cavendish:

    "Cavendish inherited two fortunes that were so large that Jean Baptiste Biot called him "the richest of all the savants and the most knowledgeable of the rich". At his death, Cavendish was the largest depositor in the Bank of England. He was a shy man who was uncomfortable in society and avoided it when he could. He could speak to only one person at a time, and only if the person were known to him and male.[33] He conversed little, always dressed in an old-fashioned suit, and developed no known deep personal attachments outside his family. Cavendish was taciturn and solitary and regarded by many as eccentric. He communicated with his female servants only by notes. By one account, Cavendish had a back staircase added to his house to avoid encountering his housekeeper, because he was especially shy of women.

    ...

    His only social outlet was the Royal Society Club, whose members dined together before weekly meetings. Cavendish seldom missed these meetings, and was profoundly respected by his contemporaries. However, his shyness made those who "sought his views... speak as if into vacancy. If their remarks were...worthy, they might receive a mumbled reply, but more often than not they would hear a peeved squeak (his voice appears to have been high-pitched) and turn to find an actual vacancy and the sight of Cavendish fleeing to find a more peaceful corner".
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    16.5 hours into Dry January - so far, so good tedious.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1
    French car-burning returns for New Years' Eve

    A total of 874 cars have been set alight during New Years Eve celebrations in France, police say. Car burning has effectively become an annual event in French suburbs since riots in 2005 in several cities.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59847372

    Funny way of supporting the French car industry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Foxy said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    I would agree with 1,2,3,9,10.

    Bitcoin and other crypto collapses are fairly regular events, but sooner or later one will become terminal, quite possible with the economic stresses of this year. It is just a giant Ponzi scheme, and will be put out of business when a digital currency backed by a large central bank launches.

    I think Dems will lose both houses in the mid terms, and that Russia will engage in the Ukraine. Not a total invasion, but perhaps a formal invasion and annexation of the Donbas and adjacent Oblasts. They might try for Odessa too.
    Yeah I should have said 'terminal collapse' for Bitcoin. It's gonna happen sometime.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    A fairly unpopular French centrist president gets replaced by a slightly more right wing French president? An event which polls already say is highly plausible?

    If that is the “biggest political story” of 2022 it means 2022 is going to be INCREDIBLY boring.

    I pray you are right
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    Tbf, I also suggested Remainers might on the whole be more risk averse but your point's a good one. I think you might be right.
    Thank you. I think it could be summed up by the fear of change vs embracing change. Again I emphasis, like you, I don't think that applies to Brexiteers on PB for whom that is not true.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    11. Andrew to settle NY suit on humiliating terms
    12. No matter what else, Cressida Dick to remain in post. Always a banker.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779
    I'd be interested if anyone has predictions for peak daily hospitalisations this month. Probably quite pertinent to political betting!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    I think 5 would, er, out-Trump 3. tbh.

    Then again, I avoided mention of HMQ as it seemed in poor taste but if we're talking about biggest political stories of the year...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Projection on your part methinks. I don't think that there is much difference between Leavers and Remainers on the issue. Indeed those most keen on more restrictions are the retired, who are mostly Leavers.

    Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.

    The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:

    The polling tables are here:

    https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
    Er, what? Your very own evidence shows that I’m
    right. As always

    Did Freedom Day - an end to restrictions - come too soon? -

    Remain: 57
    Leave: 39
    "Only allowing people to leave home for essential shopping, exercise and work" (a reasonable definition of Lockdown) supported by 21% of Remainers and 20% of Leavers.

    So, lockdown advocated by an equal number, allowing for MOE, of each in November.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Secondly, the most important by election was NS. An astonishing fail by the tories.

    The Tories still got just over half the voteshare in the by election they did in North Shropshire in 2019. It was a midterm protest vote nothing more, the LDs are an easy free hit in by elections.

    The LDs have not held a seat they won from the Tories in a by election at the subsequent general election since Romsey in 2001 and I doubt North Shropshire will be any different
    The Tories also lost in Chesham & Amersham.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 1
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    A fairly unpopular French centrist president gets replaced by a slightly more right wing French president? An event which polls already say is highly plausible?

    If that is the “biggest political story” of 2022 it means 2022 is going to be INCREDIBLY boring.

    I pray you are right
    Well to be fair it does not have much competition, the Australian election and US midterms the only other big international elections this year and here only the May local elections and NI elections.

    However Macron's defeat would be a humiliation for him and the movement he founded just 4 years ago and a triumphant return for the French centre right which looked eclipsed by Macron and Le Pen only a few months ago. It would likely be followed by victory in the legislative elections and the first conservative election win in a G7 nation outside Japan since the Tories win in 2019.

    Good for Boris too, Pecresse styles herself as a French Thatcher and would likely have better relations with him than Macron does

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    Thousands of anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists have joined a group on social media that threatens 'direct action' and promotes combat training and mixed martial art sessions.

    Alpha Men Assemble, an online collective with more than 2,800 followers, has planned meetings to practice 'training and strategy tactics' in Staffordshire, London and Lanarkshire, Scotland.

    Mail
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1
    Cases and deaths include England figures only

    162,572 cases / 154 deaths

    Cases are about the same as yesterday. There are some big days based on "specimen date" though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    IQ measures how good you are at IQ tests and nothing more
    My take is they are a bit more than that. They test a capacity for certain traits which many people associate with intelligence e.g. logical thinking and problem solving. But that is a narrow subset of what one might think of as general intelligence e.g. they don't measure any sort of creative abilities.
    Nor indeed "soft skills". Broadly speaking the ability to get on with folk. Which is arguably just as, or even more, important for many occupations.
    Or indeed for a happy existence.
    Yes that’s fair. Indeed there is evidence that extremely high IQs are associated with autism spectrum disorders, ie a severe lack of social skills and inability to empathize. Einstein and Newton have both been categorised as “autistic” (FWIW - and NB both were still spectacularly successful scientists)

    I once read some fascinating research on the IQs of Nobel prize winners in science. The conclusion was that the ideal (and most frequent) IQs were in the 140-160 range. That’s the sweet spot where you are extremely smart but still likely to have good social skills - and you’re able to empathise and build a team around you. Which leads to prizes

    Above 160 people get increasingly eccentric (or they so appear to everyone else) and become so clever they can’t figure out why regular humans do what they do - like Spock on Star Trek
    See also Henry Cavendish:

    "Cavendish inherited two fortunes that were so large that Jean Baptiste Biot called him "the richest of all the savants and the most knowledgeable of the rich". At his death, Cavendish was the largest depositor in the Bank of England. He was a shy man who was uncomfortable in society and avoided it when he could. He could speak to only one person at a time, and only if the person were known to him and male.[33] He conversed little, always dressed in an old-fashioned suit, and developed no known deep personal attachments outside his family. Cavendish was taciturn and solitary and regarded by many as eccentric. He communicated with his female servants only by notes. By one account, Cavendish had a back staircase added to his house to avoid encountering his housekeeper, because he was especially shy of women.

    ...

    His only social outlet was the Royal Society Club, whose members dined together before weekly meetings. Cavendish seldom missed these meetings, and was profoundly respected by his contemporaries. However, his shyness made those who "sought his views... speak as if into vacancy. If their remarks were...worthy, they might receive a mumbled reply, but more often than not they would hear a peeved squeak (his voice appears to have been high-pitched) and turn to find an actual vacancy and the sight of Cavendish fleeing to find a more peaceful corner".
    Yes, that sounds like classic severe ASD.

    I reckon the poet Gerard Manley Hopkins was ASD as well. Phenomenally gauche and awkward, yet clearly a linguistic genius
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited January 1
    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    A majority of working age may be what you meant. There are a lot of Remainers in the private sector, with obvious examples on this board in the Law, Financial Services and the Arts amongst others.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 317
    Yes I think it possibly signified the end of the Tories peak although a lot of the Batley and Spen 'red wall' analysis was really quite lazy. Ironically the weird dynamics of Galloway standing also arguably blunted the Tory vote.


    Personally I expect the Labour standing to drift down in the polls this year back to level pegging as the recemr Tory collapse was due to Johnson rather than Starmers doing.

    I also expect a repeat of the mediocre 2018 local election results for Starmer.

    This year is also possibly make or break for the Lib Dems.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Chris said:

    I'd be interested if anyone has predictions for peak daily hospitalisations this month. Probably quite pertinent to political betting!

    Good question: I'm going for 5,000 - I hope I am seriously over-estimating.

    Basis: Warwick model, omicron 80% less severe than Delta, no further NPIs in England.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    I think 5 would, er, out-Trump 3. tbh.

    Then again, I avoided mention of HMQ as it seemed in poor taste but if we're talking about biggest political stories of the year...
    Yes, I think she will make her 70th anniversary of becoming Queen in February, but quite likely she has done her last Christmas broadcast.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,941
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Correction: most PEOPLE are stupid. Remember the average IQ - by definition - is 100. So half the nation - half of humanity - has a sub-100 IQ. They will all appear stupid to a smart PB-er

    On top of those, you have the apparently clever, educated people, who also turn out to be as dim as all dandy-fuck. eg The Remoaners. Who expected Professor A C Grayling to reveal himself as a dribbling moron? But so it is. And there are millions like him
    About half; that 100 is [edit] scaled off a mean not a mode or a median.
    Head injuries and dementia mean there is a fat tail at the bottom.
    I am not sure it is as simple as that. The data are somehow sort of dragooned into a normal distribution, whether they want to be one or not.
    When I worked as a scientist I had an interesting chat with another scientist about a problem I was having with a diagnostic algorithm I was using to identify a complex phenomenon in a very large dataset. My problem was that the algorithm was essentially a threshold value on a quantity, this quantity was normally distributed, and so modest changes in the mean of the quantity would produce large changes in my diagnosed frequency of the phenomenon, and I couldn't really say whether there was any real change in how the phenomenon was being modelled.

    I said that what I wanted was to compute some sort of metric that wouldn't be normally distributed, so that I could separate changes in the mean background from changes to the phenomenon. He said that this was a pipedream because in the natural world pretty much everything ends up being a normal distribution and there's no escaping it.

    I found a few interesting papers that looked like they were worth following up on, and I chased my pipedream for a year or so, and got nowhere. I'm now no longer working as a scientist.

    If I found anything that wasn't normally distributed there's no way I'd ruin it by dragooning it into a normal distribution. What a waste!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    You're the one who inhabits the alternate universe pal, such trite, baseless generalisations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Projection on your part methinks. I don't think that there is much difference between Leavers and Remainers on the issue. Indeed those most keen on more restrictions are the retired, who are mostly Leavers.

    Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.

    The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:

    The polling tables are here:

    https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
    Er, what? Your very own evidence shows that I’m
    right. As always

    Did Freedom Day - an end to restrictions - come too soon? -

    Remain: 57
    Leave: 39
    "Only allowing people to leave home for essential shopping, exercise and work" (a reasonable definition of Lockdown) supported by 21% of Remainers and 20% of Leavers.

    So, lockdown advocated by an equal number, allowing for MOE, of each in November.
    You didn’t read your own data, did you?

    I am sure you are more scrupulous in your hospital duties. For which, by the way, many thanks (sincerely).

    I suspect @kinabalu has turned out right, and HMG is gonna tough out Omicron with no further restrictions in England. It will be a bruising January in the NHS. Good luck, doc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Secondly, the most important by election was NS. An astonishing fail by the tories.

    The Tories still got just over half the voteshare in the by election they did in North Shropshire in 2019. It was a midterm protest vote nothing more, the LDs are an easy free hit in by elections.

    The LDs have not held a seat they won from the Tories in a by election at the subsequent general election since Romsey in 2001 and I doubt North Shropshire will be any different
    The Tories also lost in Chesham & Amersham.
    Only after the last general election
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited January 1
    I think they need a new colour coding on the UK visualisation of case rates. Its purple or dark purple or really dark purple...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779

    Thousands of anti-vaccine conspiracy theorists have joined a group on social media that threatens 'direct action' and promotes combat training and mixed martial art sessions.

    Alpha Men Assemble, an online collective with more than 2,800 followers, has planned meetings to practice 'training and strategy tactics' in Staffordshire, London and Lanarkshire, Scotland.

    Mail

    A bit harsh on loonies not within easy reach of Staffordshire, London and Lanarkshire, Scotland. Surely there should be some online sessions?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526

    16.5 hours into Dry January - so far, so good tedious.

    Best of luck.

    I'm not a fan of dry January as it is such a bleak time of year to go sober. But I did manage it last year, for first time. In fact pushed on all through the winter lockdown until early April.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    That's nearly as lazy an assumption as saying all Leavers are thick racists.
    I think if you broke it down you'd find a majority of remain voters in those three categories plus students and leavers majority retired with private sector workers split evenly and business people split evenly.

    I don't think describing remainers as risk averse is incorrect, remain was the status quo and the safe option. Brexit was and still is a bit of a leap into the dark.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 195
    The competition result is delayed by the incomplete data today… this hasn’t turned into the F1esque nail biter one had hoped for, but let’s string out the lack of excitement for one more day…. @Northern_Al can wait
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    I think 5 would, er, out-Trump 3. tbh.

    Then again, I avoided mention of HMQ as it seemed in poor taste but if we're talking about biggest political stories of the year...
    No it wouldn't, Trump is no longer POTUS, Biden is. Macron is French President however.

    I am also confident HMQ will make her platinum jubilee
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 317
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    A fairly unpopular French centrist president gets replaced by a slightly more right wing French president? An event which polls already say is highly plausible?

    If that is the “biggest political story” of 2022 it means 2022 is going to be INCREDIBLY boring.

    I pray you are right
    I think Macron will narrowly win against Pécresse in the 2nd round although she is still the value bet.

    It's also remarkable that Macron is polling the exact same 24% that he got in the first round last time considering everything that had happened .

    I don't like Macron but I can't say I have the energy to hate him even if I think the curent state of the left in France is sad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Projection on your part methinks. I don't think that there is much difference between Leavers and Remainers on the issue. Indeed those most keen on more restrictions are the retired, who are mostly Leavers.

    Unlike your theory that Remainers are more cautious, I would say that Leavers are pro-lockdown because the burden falls mostly on others.

    The reality when you look at the polling is that there is very little between the two groups in terms of desires for measures in the polling. As ever, it is just possible that your trawling of the nutter end of twitter is a tad unrepresentative:

    The polling tables are here:

    https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:11ad679d-550a-4cb2-bd80-2396a18e291f
    Er, what? Your very own evidence shows that I’m
    right. As always

    Did Freedom Day - an end to restrictions - come too soon? -

    Remain: 57
    Leave: 39
    "Only allowing people to leave home for essential shopping, exercise and work" (a reasonable definition of Lockdown) supported by 21% of Remainers and 20% of Leavers.

    So, lockdown advocated by an equal number, allowing for MOE, of each in November.
    You didn’t read your own data, did you?

    I am sure you are more scrupulous in your hospital duties. For which, by the way, many thanks (sincerely).

    I suspect @kinabalu has turned out right, and HMG is gonna tough out Omicron with no further restrictions in England. It will be a bruising January in the NHS. Good luck, doc
    I did. Desire for lockdown in November was expressed by 21% and 20% in the YouGov poll. I would describe that as an equal and minority support by either faction. Perhaps your attention span is too short to reach the end of the table.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,526
    Chris said:

    I'd be interested if anyone has predictions for peak daily hospitalisations this month. Probably quite pertinent to political betting!

    2400. Within days. Then the surge abates rapidly.

    My view, for what it's worth.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,823
    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    Most business was pro Remain. Working classes were more pro Leave. How is that an alternative universe. As someone who owned his own company at the time not a single one of my contacts was a leaver. Not one. These were the ones who were taking risks, not the employees.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    I think they need a new colour coding on the UK visualisation of case rates. Its purple or dark purple or really dark purple...

    They only added really dark purple a week or so ago.

    Very very deep purple yet to be added, followed presumably be totally black sabbath.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779

    Chris said:

    I'd be interested if anyone has predictions for peak daily hospitalisations this month. Probably quite pertinent to political betting!

    Good question: I'm going for 5,000 - I hope I am seriously over-estimating.

    Basis: Warwick model, omicron 80% less severe than Delta, no further NPIs in England.
    Thanks. Though I think 80% vs Delta is very optimistic, I must confess I don't know what the assumptions of the Warwick model were. Obviously people have changed their behaviour, and the doubling time has changed a lot. Does anyone know what the model assumed?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thought I'd have a go at some predictions for 2022, so here goes:

    1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022.
    2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls.
    3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election.
    4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November.
    5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence.
    6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world.
    7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end.
    8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue.
    9. Bitcoin to collapse.
    10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year.

    There you are. If I get 5/10 I'll surprise myself! Feel free to point out my errors.

    If 3 came about and Macron lost it would probably be the biggest political story of the year.
    A fairly unpopular French centrist president gets replaced by a slightly more right wing French president? An event which polls already say is highly plausible?

    If that is the “biggest political story” of 2022 it means 2022 is going to be INCREDIBLY boring.

    I pray you are right
    I think Macron will narrowly win against Pécresse in the 2nd round although she is still the value bet.

    It's also remarkable that Macron is polling the exact same 24% that he got in the first round last time considering everything that had happened .

    I don't like Macron but I can't say I have the energy to hate him even if I think the curent state of the left in France is sad.
    Macron makes the runoff for sure, but I think only Pecresse could beat him, though both Zemmour or LePen might come close.

    The true French Left is too marginal, and the French system strongly favours Centrists.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited January 1
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    A majority of working age may be what you meant. There are a lot of Remainers in the private sector, with obvious examples on this board in the Law, Financial Services and the Arts amongst others.
    Plenty of Remainers were in FTSE 100 companies or the established city firms yes.

    Leavers tended to be in small businesses, farmers, fishermen or pensioners or the working class
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    kjh said:

    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    Most business was pro Remain. Working classes were more pro Leave. How is that an alternative universe. As someone who owned his own company at the time not a single one of my contacts was a leaver. Not one. These were the ones who were taking risks, not the employees.
    Big business was pro-remain, small businesses were pro-leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,240
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Secondly, the most important by election was NS. An astonishing fail by the tories.

    The Tories still got just over half the voteshare in the by election they did in North Shropshire in 2019. It was a midterm protest vote nothing more, the LDs are an easy free hit in by elections.

    The LDs have not held a seat they won from the Tories in a by election at the subsequent general election since Romsey in 2001 and I doubt North Shropshire will be any different
    The Tories also lost in Chesham & Amersham.
    Only after the last general election
    So it couldn't have been just a "protest vote"?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    16.5 hours into Dry January - so far, so good tedious.

    Best of luck.

    I'm not a fan of dry January as it is such a bleak time of year to go sober. But I did manage it last year, for first time. In fact pushed on all through the winter lockdown until early April.
    Thanks, I'll be fine - done it most years for the past 5 or 6.

    Need to loose some weight and for me alcohol => munchies => calories => fat. So stopping the booze is an essential pre-condition to shedding a few lbs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Benpointer


    “A real, if rather odd, person I suspect. A covid extremist - not surprising they exist in both sides of the spectrum.

    At the risk of generalising, I also suspect extreme lockdowners are more likely to be Remainers and extreme anti-vaxxers are more likely to be Brexiteers.

    I've no evidence to support that speculation (it would be interesting to see some polling) but my logic is that Remainers were more risk averse on average, Brexiteers more stupid.

    (Sorry about that last sentence, I just couldn't help myself 😂)”

    ++++


    No offence taken, old sport, and I think you’re right.

    It’s risk aversion. Remoaners are pathetic cowards scared of anything new, and deeply in love with bureaucratic control of everyone, of course they adore Lockdown

    Some do mate, I agree. Always a mistake to over-generalise though.

    For example, I think most Brexiters are stupid but there are plenty on here who are clearly very smart (if misguided).
    Agree. I also think Leon is wrong re Remainers being more risk adverse. Except for the more ideological Brexiteers on here many in the population want to go back to an imaginary warm safe place in the 1950s whereas a lot of Remainers are from the business world whose life blood is taking calculated risks rather than holding down a safe job.
    lol
    Explain lol
    You must inhabit some alternate universe. Remainers are largely public sector, academia and charity sector.
    A majority of working age may be what you meant. There are a lot of Remainers in the private sector, with obvious examples on this board in the Law, Financial Services and the Arts amongst others.
    Plenty of Remainers were in FTSE 100 companies or the established city firms yes.

    Leavers tended to be in small businesses, farmers or pensioners or the working class
    ...and old.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Yes I think it possibly signified the end of the Tories peak although a lot of the Batley and Spen 'red wall' analysis was really quite lazy. Ironically the weird dynamics of Galloway standing also arguably blunted the Tory vote.


    Personally I expect the Labour standing to drift down in the polls this year back to level pegging as the recemr Tory collapse was due to Johnson rather than Starmers doing.

    I also expect a repeat of the mediocre 2018 local election results for Starmer.

    This year is also possibly make or break for the Lib Dems.

    I think the local elections will be better for Starmer than Corbyn had in 2018 but not quite as bad for the Tories as 2019 but clearly worse for the Tories than the 2021 local elections
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779

    Chris said:

    I'd be interested if anyone has predictions for peak daily hospitalisations this month. Probably quite pertinent to political betting!

    2400. Within days. Then the surge abates rapidly.

    My view, for what it's worth.
    Thanks. Do you think the surge will abate after only a few millions of infections because people have radically underestimated the effect of vaccines on transmissibility, or because people have changed their behaviour radically, or what?
This discussion has been closed.