Looking very much like peak of infections in London was the 15th. Hospitalisations rising strongly in London, as you would expect: you'd expect the peak in hospitalisations to be, what, a week after peak for infections - which is today. Hospitalisations in the UK in general flat.
Today saw London's highest every By Reporting Date figure so far. I don't think we can say the 15th was the peak just yet.
This week, young people will be taking Omicron from London to towns around the UK for Christmas. I would expect that London will be (relatively) deserted next week, and so case numbers will peak around... errr... now.
The question is whether they rocket again as people return in January.
The hope is that enough boosters will have kicked in by then
Looking very much like peak of infections in London was the 15th. Hospitalisations rising strongly in London, as you would expect: you'd expect the peak in hospitalisations to be, what, a week after peak for infections - which is today. Hospitalisations in the UK in general flat.
Today saw London's highest every By Reporting Date figure so far. I don't think we can say the 15th was the peak just yet.
This week, young people will be taking Omicron from London to towns around the UK for Christmas. I would expect that London will be (relatively) deserted next week, and so case numbers will peak around... errr... now.
The question is whether they rocket again as people return in January.
The hope is that enough boosters will have kicked in by then
Time for decent effect is somewhat reduced in boosters, to around 5-7 days. I think we’ll be fine.
Looking very much like peak of infections in London was the 15th. Hospitalisations rising strongly in London, as you would expect: you'd expect the peak in hospitalisations to be, what, a week after peak for infections - which is today. Hospitalisations in the UK in general flat.
Today saw London's highest every By Reporting Date figure so far. I don't think we can say the 15th was the peak just yet.
This week, young people will be taking Omicron from London to towns around the UK for Christmas. I would expect that London will be (relatively) deserted next week, and so case numbers will peak around... errr... now.
The question is whether they rocket again as people return in January.
The question is surely whether the rest of the country rockets? Six figure cases has a psychological impact. Most folk know nowt beyond the headline figure. They are talking about it on the London-Glasgow train right now, somewhat ironically.
I’m not expecting the Conservatives to collapse to 1997 levels, but the dynamics of an election that’s about the Conservatives are very different from one that’s about Labour. Crudely, in political terms you want the election to be about your opponents. For example, the 2016 US election was ultimately focused on Hillary Clinton, who lost. Donald Trump’s flaws were less dwelt-upon in the final stages of that election. The 2020 US election was focused on Donald Trump, who lost. Joe Biden allowed himself to remain a blank canvas. Labour lost in 2015 because Ed Miliband was perceived to be potentially too beholden to Alex Salmond. And so on.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
I’m not expecting the Conservatives to collapse to 1997 levels, but the dynamics of an election that’s about the Conservatives are very different from one that’s about Labour. Crudely, in political terms you want the election to be about your opponents. For example, the 2016 US election was ultimately focused on Hillary Clinton, who lost. Donald Trump’s flaws were less dwelt-upon in the final stages of that election. The 2020 US election was focused on Donald Trump, who lost. Joe Biden allowed himself to remain a blank canvas. Labour lost in 2015 because Ed Miliband was perceived to be potentially too beholden to Alex Salmond. And so on.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
You forget that we all know what goes on at these business meetings...
51,577,782 first vaccinations 47,156,899 second vaccinations 30,844,888 third vaccinations
Nearly 130 million vaccinations in the past year and a few days - an achievement no question and plaudits to the NHS and the volunteers who have been at the heart of this.
There are still 16 million and change who need that booster and let's not forget the 4.5 million who haven't yet had a second dose.
The overall figures (ignoring all the data modelling nonsense) look reasonable especially in terms of deaths and hospitalisations both of which are holding steady in spite of the case rises suggesting the numbers infected requiring hospitalisation with Omicron are not so great at this time.
I said on Monday sometimes no decision is the right decision. Governments tend too often to the "something must be done, this is something, let's do it" mantra. I'd argue Boris Johnson's poll numbers would improve if we didn't see so much of him and he let the rest of the Government carry the can/take the credit (delete as appropriate).
To be honest, I'm bored of seeing him every day and the continual statements/briefings. Nothing the rest of the Cabinet couldn't handle in truth.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
You forget that we all know what goes on at these business meetings...
I took notes for my boss as he didn't want to travel to Oulu in mid-December? (And I was all excited about going to a foreign country on work.)
Cakeism is not a formula that works in government because, in reality, the cake has to be rationed and people notice. They notice, too, when the prime minister and his friends help themselves to the fattest slice, while urging the public to abstain out of civic duty. They see how the man who treats everything as a joke is also laughing at the people who elected him. That is when the light changes, the smile darkens into a sneer, the populist loses his people, the polarities of his magnetism are flipped, and the force that was once attraction turns repulsive.
In the face of massively surging cases countrywide - face masks outside in the open air to be compulsory from tomorrow. Meanwhile they have just approved boosters for the over 40s!
There are times when you realise for all its faults re Covid - there are places where the level of government incompetence and stupidity massively exceed that of the UK. The mask mandate will make zero difference [ they are already compulsory indoors] and the booster programme for the over 40s means that millions of 40-59 year olds will be well past 6 months before they get the third jab. Meanwhile in most places there wil be no other restrictions beyond the vaxport/negtest requirement for hostelry.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Meghan, Duchess of Sussex could be called as witness in Prince Andrew's sex case.
Virginia Giuffre's lawyer says Duchess can be 'counted on to tell the truth' but said he is unlikely to depose the Queen 'out of respect'
The Duchess of Sussex could be called as a witness in the civil suit against Prince Andrew brought by Virginia Roberts Giuffre.
David Boies, the lawyer representing Ms Giuffre, told the Daily Beast that the Duchess of Sussex “is somebody we can count on to tell the truth”.
Mr Boies said there are three reasons she may be deposed: “One; she is in the U.S. so we have jurisdiction over her.”
“Two; she is somebody who obviously, at least for a period of time, was a close associate of Prince Andrew and hence is in a position to perhaps have seen what he did, and perhaps if not to have seen what he did to have heard people talk about it. Because of her past association with him, she may very well have important knowledge, and will certainly have some knowledge.”
“Three; she is somebody who we can count on to tell the truth. She checks all three boxes.”
Mr Boies stressed that no final decision had been made on who he would depose, stating that the Duchess is just “one of the people we are considering”.
Is there any good evidence yet that omicron is inherently milder, or is it just a consequence of infecting a much larger number of people with immunity from previous infection or vaccination?
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Yes. Good news from SA, too
“Marta Nunes, a senior researcher at the vaccines and infectious diseases analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told the Associated Press: “The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the centre of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak.”
“It was a short wave … and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,” she said. It was “not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease”.”
51,577,782 first vaccinations 47,156,899 second vaccinations 30,844,888 third vaccinations
Nearly 130 million vaccinations in the past year and a few days - an achievement no question and plaudits to the NHS and the volunteers who have been at the heart of this.
There are still 16 million and change who need that booster and let's not forget the 4.5 million who haven't yet had a second dose.
The overall figures (ignoring all the data modelling nonsense) look reasonable especially in terms of deaths and hospitalisations both of which are holding steady in spite of the case rises suggesting the numbers infected requiring hospitalisation with Omicron are not so great at this time.
I said on Monday sometimes no decision is the right decision. Governments tend too often to the "something must be done, this is something, let's do it" mantra. I'd argue Boris Johnson's poll numbers would improve if we didn't see so much of him and he let the rest of the Government carry the can/take the credit (delete as appropriate).
To be honest, I'm bored of seeing him every day and the continual statements/briefings. Nothing the rest of the Cabinet couldn't handle in truth.
Important reminder. A significant number of that 16 m will be folk like me. Ineligible within 4 weeks of a positive test. So, highly unlikely to be catching it or infecting anyone any time soon.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
I had a work trip to Helsinki at mid-summer solstice. It wasn't dark. On the flight back the next day were several people who had been up to the Arctic Circle to watch the sun not set all night while getting pissed.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Do we know whether the time in hospital is reduced for those there? That's another crucial number.
There's no link to the study in the original tweet.
Seems to be good news on omicron, thankfully. I still suspect January is going to be grim as these omi-wave spreads across the country but hopefully by February numbers will be down again.
How many more variants and/or waves before covid no longer makes the news I wonder?
51,577,782 first vaccinations 47,156,899 second vaccinations 30,844,888 third vaccinations
Nearly 130 million vaccinations in the past year and a few days - an achievement no question and plaudits to the NHS and the volunteers who have been at the heart of this.
There are still 16 million and change who need that booster and let's not forget the 4.5 million who haven't yet had a second dose.
The overall figures (ignoring all the data modelling nonsense) look reasonable especially in terms of deaths and hospitalisations both of which are holding steady in spite of the case rises suggesting the numbers infected requiring hospitalisation with Omicron are not so great at this time.
I said on Monday sometimes no decision is the right decision. Governments tend too often to the "something must be done, this is something, let's do it" mantra. I'd argue Boris Johnson's poll numbers would improve if we didn't see so much of him and he let the rest of the Government carry the can/take the credit (delete as appropriate).
To be honest, I'm bored of seeing him every day and the continual statements/briefings. Nothing the rest of the Cabinet couldn't handle in truth.
As I was saying earlier today, the first and second doses are finally showing signs of life because of the huge focus on the booster programme. First doses are trending up to ca. 300k per week and seconds may go as high as 500k per week. Even if we can only hold those rates for a couple of months it will make an absolutely huge difference to our immunity picture, especially those second doses. Where we would previously have been lucky to hit 70% population double vaccinated, I think we may be able to go as high as 76-78% by the end of spring double vaxxed and 73-74% triple vaxxed.
If only the government had gone down the huge public outreach programme route earlier this year.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
I had a work trip to Helsinki at mid-summer solstice. It wasn't dark. On the flight back the next day were several people who had been up to the Arctic Circle to watch the sun not set all night while getting pissed.
Something of a rite of passage in Rural Canada. Drive up to the Arctic, get smashed, watch the Sun go down, roll along the horizon, and come up again. Gotta make your own fun in Moose Factory or Porcupine Plain.
Seems to be good news on omicron, thankfully. I still suspect January is going to be grim as these omi-wave spreads across the country but hopefully by February numbers will be down again.
How many more variants and/or waves before covid no longer makes the news I wonder?
My guess, and it is only a guess as SARS-CoV-2 has confounded so often, is that omicron represents the beginning of the endgame in the virus' evolution into an endemic, tolerable form.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
I had a work trip to Helsinki at mid-summer solstice. It wasn't dark. On the flight back the next day were several people who had been up to the Arctic Circle to watch the sun not set all night while getting pissed.
I remember being in Helsinki in June / July and had (because connection options were Baaaad), a 3:30 alarm call to get a 6am or so return flight.
Work up, sleepily opened the hotel curtains - fully wide awake.
Moderna-ed this morning. Very slightly sore arm but nothing really noticeable yet. The good burghers of our little town may yet get me playing the carols on Christmas Eve with both hands and pedals…
Lucky you. Have slept a chunk of this afternoon, arm feels like its been punched, head feels like its data bus has been disconnected from my body.
I walked a couple of miles each way to get the 1st jab: no reaction, just a sore-ish arm for a day Ditto the second jab, but I also had a good work-out on the turbo trainer that day. The booster: had essentially no effect and had a good workout same day.
The Flu jab gave me a little soreness for a day or two.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Are you thinking of running for office?
Not me mate, I can barely run my own office, and there are only three of us.
Is there any good evidence yet that omicron is inherently milder, or is it just a consequence of infecting a much larger number of people with immunity from previous infection or vaccination?
The Scottish study says it's inherently milder according to the reports. I haven't seen the study though, will need to read through it.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Are you thinking of running for office?
Not me mate, I can barely run my own of
That was a quote fail, I was asking the Poster Formerly Known As PT
It doesn't work, of course, unless you rigorously deny being your previous incarnation, not that anyone would waste our time and insult our collective intelligence by doing any such thing
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Are you thinking of running for office?
Not me mate, I can barely run my own of
That was a quote fail, I was asking the Poster Formerly Known As PT
It doesn't work, of course, unless you rigorously deny being your previous incarnation, not that anyone would waste our time and insult our collective intelligence by doing any such thing
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is there any good evidence yet that omicron is inherently milder, or is it just a consequence of infecting a much larger number of people with immunity from previous infection or vaccination?
The Scottish study says it's inherently milder according to the reports. I haven't seen the study though, will need to read through it.
I can't think how a virus that replicates at 1/10th the speed of the original version in the lungs wouldn't be quite honestly.
Interesting and not really seen reported - the last few week has seen a notable rise in people getting first (L) and second (R) jabs alongside the mammoth surge in booster shots. Could be omicron awareness, could be introduction of vaccine certification for clubs etc...
Seems to be good news on omicron, thankfully. I still suspect January is going to be grim as these omi-wave spreads across the country but hopefully by February numbers will be down again.
How many more variants and/or waves before covid no longer makes the news I wonder?
My guess, and it is only a guess as SARS-CoV-2 has confounded so often, is that omicron represents the beginning of the endgame in the virus' evolution into an endemic, tolerable form.
"endgame" implies a directionality in evolution which isn't actually there. It may have zigged to tolerable this time, that doesn't preclude it zagging towards something a bit more Black Death like next year. Indeed the more strains in co existence the wider the possibilities.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Yes, waiting for more data when uncertainty was so high was the correct course of action, hopefully Nicola and Drakeford can scale back their plans for restrictions. They won't be necessary with a less severe variant and significant booster immunity.
Well credit where credit is due, the cabinet seem to have got this right
I think so. People whose main worry was another lockdown can relax. But who can't relax are the NHS. It's going to be a dreadful winter for them. We need a capacity upgrade as a matter of urgency. This is one of the biggest lessons of the pandemic.
In the face-off between the Omicron wishcasters and doomcasters, the wishcasters look to be on top.
Let's hope it stays that way.
Without saying you are guilty of this, I have been amused by the suggestions that it's just been luck that the people saying "look at this 60m population country where everything seems fine despite Omicron" look like being more accurate than the "but my model says they should all be dead" people.
I am very happy to be wrong and avoid another lockdown
As we keep saying, nobody wants another lockdown. Meanwhile on one of my WhatsApp groups three members of the same extended family have all tested positive on the same day (separate infections!). Their big family Christmas is cancelled.
Also on the London-Glasgow train. Am hearing rather more than sub judice would like about a fellow passenger's sister's manslaughter trial. Update. Now discussing another relatives cremation arrangements. And planning their own.
Interesting and not really seen reported - the last few week has seen a notable rise in people getting first (L) and second (R) jabs alongside the mammoth surge in booster shots. Could be omicron awareness, could be introduction of vaccine certification for clubs etc...
I'm sure it's a combination of the publicity, and the natural tendency some people seem to have to fear missing out if they see lots of other people are really keen on something (see any Apple store when a new model is launched to see this irrational, but in the case of jabs very welcome, effect in action).
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
I had a work trip to Helsinki at mid-summer solstice. It wasn't dark. On the flight back the next day were several people who had been up to the Arctic Circle to watch the sun not set all night while getting pissed.
I remember being in Helsinki in June / July and had (because connection options were Baaaad), a 3:30 alarm call to get a 6am or so return flight.
Work up, sleepily opened the hotel curtains - fully wide awake.
I had 2 weeks sailing in the Lofotens in July. No night passages, which I thought was a bit of a waste, but I set alarms for times like 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. to satisfy myself that the travellers' tales are true
1. SA excess deaths to 18/12: 2602. Up 1101 from last week and perhaps around 1600 above baseline. Starting to look like a realistic scaling of Omicron as milder but not harmless. But might be the local peak week for SA? Next report January.
2. UK Omicron report: 239893 cases, 195 Hospitalisations. 18 deaths. Given time lag, 7 days ago figures for comparison are: 34990 cases, 16 Hospitalisations, 1 death.
Clearly the lagged death to hospitalisation comparison is nonsense on this scale, but the hospitalisation to cases starting to make some sense.
Also showing Omicron still advancing slowly relative to Delta, 56% of cases in NE to just over 90% in London.
3. Daily case figures about where expected. We are only 7 days into nationally higher reporting date figures, so national hospitalisation rises should be coming soon. I'm still not convinced what direction things will go in, as how Delta rolls out of the figures could be a counter factor.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Do we know whether the time in hospital is reduced for those there? That's another crucial number.
There's no link to the study in the original tweet.
As I understand it the South Africans are saying that hospital stays are shorter, but UK are saying its about the same 'at least with the data they have'
I suspect that SA have more complete data, as their total hospital numbers are coming down now. so I'm incline to suspect they are right.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
So 70% fewer severe cases (I know, I know, the calculation doesn't work that way) and then a 93-95% reduction due to triple jabbed vaccine efficacy. This is actually better than any of the most optimistic forecasts.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
You’re assuming London’s getting iffy though. I think people are finally tuning into with/of and the numbers are looking very good.
Just consulted with some medical types (appreciate we have our own in-house PB experts) and they said they are really struggling with the number of people isolating after a test or going off sick with booster side effects.
The good news on Omi severity doesn't help with its insane transmissibility and the subsequent staffing issues in the NHS or elsewhere, so we aren't out of the woods yet.
Scotland needs to follow England by going to 7 days isolation ASAP.
Hopefully the media will pick up on the Scottish and Imperial omicron studies quickly and the narrative will not be "over 100k cases, oh shit" too much.
Interesting and not really seen reported - the last few week has seen a notable rise in people getting first (L) and second (R) jabs alongside the mammoth surge in booster shots. Could be omicron awareness, could be introduction of vaccine certification for clubs etc...
I'm sure it's a combination of the publicity, and the natural tendency some people seem to have to fear missing out if they see lots of other people are really keen on something (see any Apple store when a new model is launched to see this irrational, but in the case of jabs very welcome, effect in action).
Yes, having everyone queuing and talking about getting their booster is getting people to queue up and get their first and second doses as well. There is suddenly a fear of missing out for vaccines that didn't exist in the summer among under 40s, at least from my social and family circles.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
So 70% fewer severe cases (I know, I know, the calculation doesn't work that way) and then a 93-95% reduction due to triple jabbed vaccine efficacy. This is actually better than any of the most optimistic forecasts.
This is the same Imperial that earlier this weeks there was "no evidence" that Omicron was mild. I get that they meant "no evidence as of yet" but they really really need to improve how they communicate with the publc.
BREAKING New #Omicron study in Scotland and it looks like good news. ‘Early national data suggests that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.’ Experts from Edinburgh & Strathclyde Uni.
Scottish study so appears to be showing the reduction is inherant to Omicron rather than just vaccination given delta came along post our initial roll out.
We'll add that to the apparently imaginary pile of evidence Omicron is milder.
That's good news; just need not to have more than 3x as many cases and the hospitals will do no worse than with delta. . Which is the other factor.
Terrible news for SAGE modellers, undertakers and pension providers, great news for everyone else.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter on the BBC has just referred to this study and also one from South Africa which shows an 80% reduction omicron to delta and said it is very good news and the modelling may need reviewing
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
Do we know whether the time in hospital is reduced for those there? That's another crucial number.
There's no link to the study in the original tweet.
As I understand it the South Africans are saying that hospital stays are shorter, but UK are saying its about the same 'at least with the data they have'
I suspect that SA have more complete data, as their total hospital numbers are coming down now. so I'm incline to suspect they are right.
However SA hospital admissions reflect a different population age and fitness profile to UK hospital admissions.
We can look at the figures and think - hmm looks good but we can't take the SA figures and go nothing to worry about.
Shockingly low. Bradford Royal Infirmary might get rather busy.
Is that one of the Bradford locations where there is a big double counted student population? Not sure the geography of Bradford Uni, but no earthly reason for Aspley & University to be their lowest vaccinated location in Huddersfield other than that.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Interesting and not really seen reported - the last few week has seen a notable rise in people getting first (L) and second (R) jabs alongside the mammoth surge in booster shots. Could be omicron awareness, could be introduction of vaccine certification for clubs etc...
I'm sure it's a combination of the publicity, and the natural tendency some people seem to have to fear missing out if they see lots of other people are really keen on something (see any Apple store when a new model is launched to see this irrational, but in the case of jabs very welcome, effect in action).
Scarcity (wanting what other have that is in short supply or is time limited) and social proof (in uncertain or ambiguous situations, copying what others do) are two of the 6 principal forms of persuasion highlighted in Robert Cialdini's famous book, Influence: the Psychology of Persuasion
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
So 70% fewer severe cases (I know, I know, the calculation doesn't work that way) and then a 93-95% reduction due to triple jabbed vaccine efficacy. This is actually better than any of the most optimistic forecasts.
Yes, on an individual level, it's all looking pretty good, provided you are triple-jabbed, or at least double-jabbed and not too vulnerable.
On a population level, good for the UK. Not so good for countries which are far behind on boosters, or, even more so, countries behind on the initial two doses. And that's a lot of countries, including some wealthy ones which really shouldn't be in that position. The US could be in for quite a rough time, and eastern Europe even rougher, and poorer countries are likely to be badly hit.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
Reading the study link, I'm not sure he's got the right percentage in his headline summary, looks like 40-45% to me. Still, combined with Scottish study finding 66% reduction, we're definitely looking at a halving of hospitalisation risk vs delta, even before you factor in the boosters (and remember that delta only ever managed to cause 1k hospitalisations per day).
- Boosters. 12.2 Million left to do in Scotland and England. - Cases. Rising sharply across all regions. Nearly all the growth is in the sub 50s groups. London R is now falling
- Admissions. Rising slowly. - Deaths - still falling.
Is there a reason why you spell it “preverts” in each of these pictures?
If Omicron attacks 10,000 unvaccinated people, it infects all 10,000 and around 200 will present severe symptoms that require hospitalisation.
If Omicron attacks 10,000 triple vaxxed people, it infects 350 and around 10-14 will need to be hospitalised.
If this is correct, and I think it is, then Omicron is a paper tiger, especially given two dose, single dose and natural immunity will all chip away at the average case severity so the numbers will be actually be smaller among the non-boostered.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Yes, yes yes, we get that.
But if Omicron is as mild as Imperial's data suggests, cases would have to be ludricously large to reach a level of hospitalisations equivalent to the Alpha wave earlier this year. And there are already signs that they won't get that high.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
So 70% fewer severe cases (I know, I know, the calculation doesn't work that way) and then a 93-95% reduction due to triple jabbed vaccine efficacy. This is actually better than any of the most optimistic forecasts.
The mood among my colleagues at our team meeting this afternoon was relief Christmas wasn't "being cancelled" but a continued sense of caution and an expectation of a return of restrictions in the New Year.
I know some play around with numbers and data models and try to make big political points but individuals are much more risk averse not so much for themselves but for older and less healthy relatives for whom any exposure to Omicron might be more than just "mild".
Just consulted with some medical types (appreciate we have our own in-house PB experts) and they said they are really struggling with the number of people isolating after a test or going off sick with booster side effects.
The good news on Omi severity doesn't help with its insane transmissibility and the subsequent staffing issues in the NHS or elsewhere, so we aren't out of the woods yet.
Scotland needs to follow England by going to 7 days isolation ASAP.
This is what would worry me with schools. If it does go zipping through them, including staff, we may have individual more or less random school closures, or year groups sent home.
How then do we allow for further disruption of small numbers in the exams that are being sat? That's even before we consider that no useful allowance has been made for the impact of Covid on these (already quite flawed) exams so there are awkward questions about how to mark and grade this year.
Hopefully there will be no lockdown but this level of transmission could still cause problems.
I'm inclined to agree with @BartholomewRoberts point yesterday that if it is significantly milder and this transmissible it might be better to scrap isolation altogether.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Problem with that argument is that unless you shut things down ages ago by the time you discover you have a problem it's too late to do anything about it.
This is what made Boris's Plan B stuff so bad - it was too little and introduced too late to make any real difference. And the Welsh / Scottish post Xmas lockdowns are really far, far too late.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
Covid deaths have been exaggerated?
Let me guess. The earth is flat, Trump won the election and the moon is made of cheese...
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Delta caused 1k hospitalisations per day with recorded cases of 50k per day. To get to 4k matching last Jan, we'd need recorded cases of 400-600k rather than the current 100k.
So we're a long way away from large volumes overwhelming the weaker mode of action.
- Boosters. 12.2 Million left to do in Scotland and England. - Cases. Rising sharply across all regions. Nearly all the growth is in the sub 50s groups. London R is now falling
- Admissions. Rising slowly. - Deaths - still falling.
Is there a reason why you spell it “preverts” in each of these pictures?
I'm more concerned that they're using a picture of Buck Turgidson for this when everybody knows it was General Ritter who was obsessed with precious bodily fluids.
(In answer to your question, In the film a US colonel kept talking about 'preverts' when he meant to say 'perverts.')
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Actually maybe not, with vaccine efficacy and this new reduced severity the number of people who can be hospitalised at any one time by Omicron may actually be lower than what we had with Delta even with more infections. Indeed, the only stat that we can currently trust on hospitalisations in the dash (patients requiring ventilation) hasn't risen at all despite the huge increase in cases. Incidental hospitalisations and deaths will rise, but overall deaths and bed occupancy might be basically the same as before.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
You could, you know, just not open up PB and have to read it. Merry Christmas.
NEW REPORT #COVID19 Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
Why not come to Bedford Russell Park on a Sunday and chat with the dwindling band of very nice "refuseniks"?
If Omicron attacks 10,000 unvaccinated people, it infects all 10,000 and around 200 will present severe symptoms that require hospitalisation.
If Omicron attacks 10,000 triple vaxxed people, it infects 350 and around 10-14 will need to be hospitalised.
If this is correct, and I think it is, then Omicron is a paper tiger, especially given two dose, single dose and natural immunity will all chip away at the average case severity so the numbers will be actually be smaller among the non-boostered.
I don't think there's 96.5% protection against detectable infection for the triple vaxxed. Don't forget that case numbers include the asymptomatic triple vaxxed (who are picked up on PCR/LFT), while the vaccine efficacy numbers only include the symptomatic triple vaxxed.
Still, I don't think it changes your overall conclusion much.
Embarrassing drivel from Leon, one of the most pathetic about turns I've ever seen in my life from "we're all fucked" to "nothing to worry about" overnight. He must do this for reactions.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Yes, yes yes, we get that.
But if Omicron is as mild as Imperial's data suggests, cases would have to be ludricously large to reach a level of hospitalisations equivalent to the Alpha wave earlier this year. And there are already signs that they won't get that high.
We all know that. Whats more the medical powers that be know that. Double jabbed doesn't give enough protection, triple does. So as we get through January with more and more tripled the risk recedes. Its just the immediate period thats the problem.
Whats more, they not only have the data on the virus, they have the data on the NHS. How many hospitals are already swamped after 20 months of this crap. It does make me chuckle when PB experts say "everything is fine" when they have literally no idea what its like in the NHS system.
It looks like we're going to dodge this bullet - just. Brilliant news! But the idea that there was not a bullet to dodge is wishful thinking, and its turned into attack the experts, which is how we got into this wider mess...
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
You could, you know, just not open up PB and have to read it. Merry Christmas.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
So, what you're saying is that you don't want any record of the utter shit you spouted regarding the efficacy of ivermectin?
It may be nothing but I was drawn by the weakening of the duopoly in the YouGov poll.
The Conservative/Labour vote share down from 78% at the election to just 66% now.
That's still a solid 9% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 7.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The LDs up to 12 but the Greens polling well on 8 and Reform on 5. It will be fascinating to see how and to what extent we see local "understandings" between the LDs and Greens in some seats. Will Reform fight every seat or will they, for example, avoid contesting seats held by anti-restriction Conservatives (or indeed anti-restriction LDs)?
Lets hope the sodding anti-vaxxers don't cause such large rush on hospitals that it exceeds the lines in the sand the government have set for imposing further restrictions, while the triple jabbed aren't actually adding much pressure.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Problem with that argument is that unless you shut things down ages ago by the time you discover you have a problem it's too late to do anything about it.
This is what made Boris's Plan B stuff so bad - it was too little and introduced too late to make any real difference. And the Welsh / Scottish post Xmas lockdowns are really far, far too late.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking
That was the moment at which you all heard the loud bang emanating from Cannock as my irony meter exploded leaving a giant 40 foot crater and felling three random beech trees. Sorry all, including the forestry commission.
Fortunately I was not in the house at the time and although I am covered in soot and rather dazed I seem to have escaped mostly unscathed.
If Omicron attacks 10,000 unvaccinated people, it infects all 10,000 and around 200 will present severe symptoms that require hospitalisation.
If Omicron attacks 10,000 triple vaxxed people, it infects 350 and around 10-14 will need to be hospitalised.
If this is correct, and I think it is, then Omicron is a paper tiger, especially given two dose, single dose and natural immunity will all chip away at the average case severity so the numbers will be actually be smaller among the non-boostered.
I don't think there's 96.5% protection against detectable infection for the triple vaxxed. Don't forget that case numbers include the asymptomatic triple vaxxed (who are picked up on PCR/LFT), while the vaccine efficacy numbers only include the symptomatic triple vaxxed.
Still, I don't think it changes your overall conclusion much.
Sorry, that's supposed to be 3500! Which also explains why half of London seems to be coughing their way into Xmas but no more than that.
I sense a shift in PB sentiment from "Lockdown is coming cos of crazy scientists" to "Lockdown is NOT coming cos Omi is a pussy."
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
I wouldn't breathe too much of a sigh of relief yet. Remember, the Government, Parliament and most of the media are all based in and fixated on London, it's full of bloody vaccine refuser twats, and they're driving the spike in hospitalisations (especially the more serious ones.) Johnson might easily be panicked into a whole raft of Drakefordesque panic flapping nonsense if London starts to look really iffy, even if the rest of England continues to cope relatively well.
Is it possible for me to remove my profile from this site or, if not, could the moderators do it pls? Thanks.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
So, what you're saying is that you don't want any record of the utter shit you spouted regarding the efficacy of ivermectin?
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Delta caused 1k hospitalisations per day with recorded cases of 50k per day. To get to 4k matching last Jan, we'd need recorded cases of 400-600k rather than the current 100k.
So we're a long way away from large volumes overwhelming the weaker mode of action.
It’s also hard to believe that even Omicron could infect half a million a day in the UK, it would run out of hosts long before then?
And if it did somehow hit that momentary peak the collapse in cases would come immediately after and be steep
Thread on the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. It looks like a WWI situation, where, having mobilised, the two choices are fight or put yourself at a permanent disadvantage. The difference is that this time around, there’s only one country - and one person - responsible.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362849871368195 75% of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups have been moved. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers, armored excavators, engineering equipment, refueling, huge amount of logistics, etc. Follow @RALee85 for details
Putin really is a total arse.
Other than the whole nukes thing, it would be a great time for China to invade Russia...
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1m Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
It does feel like that Father Ted sketch talking to Dougal about cows at times.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
Delta caused 1k hospitalisations per day with recorded cases of 50k per day. To get to 4k matching last Jan, we'd need recorded cases of 400-600k rather than the current 100k.
So we're a long way away from large volumes overwhelming the weaker mode of action.
It’s also hard to believe that even Omicron could infect half a million a day in the UK, it would run out of hosts long before then?
And if it did somehow hit that momentary peak the collapse in cases would come immediately after and be steep
Yes, 500k cases per day would imply around 1/11 people have it at any one time. We'd hit herd immunity within a few weeks given pre-existing vaccine and natural immunity.
Comments
Six figure cases has a psychological impact. Most folk know nowt beyond the headline figure.
They are talking about it on the London-Glasgow train right now, somewhat ironically.
My second ever business trip was to Finland in mid-December*. I got up at 8am to go to my meeting. It was dark. I got in a taxi. It was dark. I arrived at my meeting. It was dark.
Had lunch at about 12pm. The sun was low in the sky.
Finished meeting at 2pm and headed to the airport. It was dark.
At this time of year, there are just three and a half hours of sunlight in Oulu. (And Helsinki's not much better.)
* My first ever business meeting was in Norway. I sure do pick'em for exciting places to visit.
You want people to project their hopes onto you.
51,577,782 first vaccinations
47,156,899 second vaccinations
30,844,888 third vaccinations
Nearly 130 million vaccinations in the past year and a few days - an achievement no question and plaudits to the NHS and the volunteers who have been at the heart of this.
There are still 16 million and change who need that booster and let's not forget the 4.5 million who haven't yet had a second dose.
The overall figures (ignoring all the data modelling nonsense) look reasonable especially in terms of deaths and hospitalisations both of which are holding steady in spite of the case rises suggesting the numbers infected requiring hospitalisation with Omicron are not so great at this time.
I said on Monday sometimes no decision is the right decision. Governments tend too often to the "something must be done, this is something, let's do it" mantra. I'd argue Boris Johnson's poll numbers would improve if we didn't see so much of him and he let the rest of the Government carry the can/take the credit (delete as appropriate).
To be honest, I'm bored of seeing him every day and the continual statements/briefings. Nothing the rest of the Cabinet couldn't handle in truth.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/tories-cake-stuffed-boris-johnson-covid-restrictions-freedom
In the face of massively surging cases countrywide - face masks outside in the open air to be compulsory from tomorrow. Meanwhile they have just approved boosters for the over 40s!
There are times when you realise for all its faults re Covid - there are places where the level of government incompetence and stupidity massively exceed that of the UK. The mask mandate will make zero difference [ they are already compulsory indoors] and the booster programme for the over 40s means that millions of 40-59 year olds will be well past 6 months before they get the third jab. Meanwhile in most places there wil be no other restrictions beyond the vaxport/negtest requirement for hostelry.
Feliz navidad!
It looks as if the cabinet may well have got this right
“Marta Nunes, a senior researcher at the vaccines and infectious diseases analytics department of the University of Witwatersrand, told the Associated Press: “The drop in new cases nationally combined with the sustained drop in new cases seen here in Gauteng province, which for weeks has been the centre of this wave, indicates that we are past the peak.”
“It was a short wave … and the good news is that it was not very severe in terms of hospitalisations and deaths,” she said. It was “not unexpected in epidemiology that a very steep increase, like what we saw in November, is followed by a steep decrease”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/data-appears-to-support-claims-that-omicron-is-less-severe-in-south-africa
A significant number of that 16 m will be folk like me. Ineligible within 4 weeks of a positive test.
So, highly unlikely to be catching it or infecting anyone any time soon.
Still, good news.
This is a better vibe, I think. Fingers crossed for no backslide.
There's no link to the study in the original tweet.
How many more variants and/or waves before covid no longer makes the news I wonder?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/omicron-covid-restrictions-young-people
If only the government had gone down the huge public outreach programme route earlier this year.
Gotta make your own fun in Moose Factory or Porcupine Plain.
You made a bold and counter-intuitive prediction. Looks like it might pay out in PB street cred credits. 🥂👍🙏
Work up, sleepily opened the hotel curtains - fully wide awake.
Let's hope it stays that way.
Ditto the second jab, but I also had a good work-out on the turbo trainer that day.
The booster: had essentially no effect and had a good workout same day.
The Flu jab gave me a little soreness for a day or two.
Am I a zombie? Or is it that I'm just old?
Besides which, I am still using my real name.
As the ancients (such as my great aunt) used to say, man proposes, God disposes.
It doesn't work, of course, unless you rigorously deny being your previous incarnation, not that anyone would waste our time and insult our collective intelligence by doing any such thing
1st dose
55.4%
2nd dose
46.2%
3rd dose or boosters
12.6%
Shockingly low. Bradford Royal Infirmary might get rather busy.
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1473683768124792846?s=20
Am hearing rather more than sub judice would like about a fellow passenger's sister's manslaughter trial.
Update. Now discussing another relatives cremation arrangements. And planning their own.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1m
Imperial find for a 69% reduction in the risk of being hospitalised for more than one day with omicron vs delta.
Debate over, Omicron is milder, enjoy christmas and new years all you like.
1. SA excess deaths to 18/12: 2602. Up 1101 from last week and perhaps around 1600 above baseline. Starting to look like a realistic scaling of Omicron as milder but not harmless. But might be the local peak week for SA? Next report January.
2. UK Omicron report: 239893 cases, 195 Hospitalisations. 18 deaths. Given time lag, 7 days ago figures for comparison are: 34990 cases, 16 Hospitalisations, 1 death.
Clearly the lagged death to hospitalisation comparison is nonsense on this scale, but the hospitalisation to cases starting to make some sense.
Also showing Omicron still advancing slowly relative to Delta, 56% of cases in NE to just over 90% in London.
3. Daily case figures about where expected. We are only 7 days into nationally higher reporting date figures, so national hospitalisation rises should be coming soon. I'm still not convinced what direction things will go in, as how Delta rolls out of the figures could be a counter factor.
I suspect that SA have more complete data, as their total hospital numbers are coming down now. so I'm incline to suspect they are right.
Obviously only once the massive numbers of incidentals are stripped out given current prevalence.
The good news on Omi severity doesn't help with its insane transmissibility and the subsequent staffing issues in the NHS or elsewhere, so we aren't out of the woods yet.
Scotland needs to follow England by going to 7 days isolation ASAP.
We can look at the figures and think - hmm looks good but we can't take the SA figures and go nothing to worry about.
About half the time since Mar. 2020, PB has been like a new organisation 'Hypochondriacs Anonymous'.
I'm sorry some people were terrified by the relentless fear campaign SAGE, SPI-B etc have waged. But they should have exercised critical thinking and learned which MSM might not be telling the truth. If you didn't even know there was a fear campaign, that 'COVID deaths' were exagerrated, etc, etc, chances are you're one of its victims. Read Laura Dodsworth's book.
Bye bye.
On a population level, good for the UK. Not so good for countries which are far behind on boosters, or, even more so, countries behind on the initial two doses. And that's a lot of countries, including some wealthy ones which really shouldn't be in that position. The US could be in for quite a rough time, and eastern Europe even rougher, and poorer countries are likely to be badly hit.
Its been broadly accepted for some time that Omicron looks milder than Delta. If you listen to Whitty, Taylor et al that isn't what concerns them. Its that Omicron is so much more infectious than the others have been.
A lower percentage in hospital of a much larger number is still a larger number in hospital. For most people Omicron would not threaten their life. But if so many people get it that the small percentage it does threaten means a lot of people, its still very much a problem.
- It's been a year and we're no better off, do the vaccines even do anything?
- It makes no sense that people can have a virus and not have any symptoms.
- Isn't it weird that no one knows that many people with Covid when supposedly there have been so many cases?
- We should have done what New Zealand did, no one in and no one out.
- Has Bozo locked us down again yet?
- I was given a different booster vaccine, that's crazy.
Feels like some public communication just won't filter through no matter the time given.If Omicron attacks 10,000 unvaccinated people, it infects all 10,000 and around 200 will present severe symptoms that require hospitalisation.
If Omicron attacks 10,000 triple vaxxed people, it infects 350 and around 10-14 will need to be hospitalised.
If this is correct, and I think it is, then Omicron is a paper tiger, especially given two dose, single dose and natural immunity will all chip away at the average case severity so the numbers will be actually be smaller among the non-boostered.
But if Omicron is as mild as Imperial's data suggests, cases would have to be ludricously large to reach a level of hospitalisations equivalent to the Alpha wave earlier this year. And there are already signs that they won't get that high.
I know some play around with numbers and data models and try to make big political points but individuals are much more risk averse not so much for themselves but for older and less healthy relatives for whom any exposure to Omicron might be more than just "mild".
How then do we allow for further disruption of small numbers in the exams that are being sat? That's even before we consider that no useful allowance has been made for the impact of Covid on these (already quite flawed) exams so there are awkward questions about how to mark and grade this year.
Hopefully there will be no lockdown but this level of transmission could still cause problems.
I'm inclined to agree with @BartholomewRoberts point yesterday that if it is significantly milder and this transmissible it might be better to scrap isolation altogether.
This is what made Boris's Plan B stuff so bad - it was too little and introduced too late to make any real difference. And the Welsh / Scottish post Xmas lockdowns are really far, far too late.
Let me guess. The earth is flat, Trump won the election and the moon is made of cheese...
So we're a long way away from large volumes overwhelming the weaker mode of action.
(In answer to your question, In the film a US colonel kept talking about 'preverts' when he meant to say 'perverts.')
NEW REPORT #COVID19 Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta.
Read the report here 👇
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232882/some-reduction-hospitalisation-omicron-delta-englandearly/
Lots of interesting stuff. Mostly good
Still, I don't think it changes your overall conclusion much.
Whats more, they not only have the data on the virus, they have the data on the NHS. How many hospitals are already swamped after 20 months of this crap. It does make me chuckle when PB experts say "everything is fine" when they have literally no idea what its like in the NHS system.
It looks like we're going to dodge this bullet - just. Brilliant news! But the idea that there was not a bullet to dodge is wishful thinking, and its turned into attack the experts, which is how we got into this wider mess...
*lying circuits tested and found to be nominal*
The Conservative/Labour vote share down from 78% at the election to just 66% now.
That's still a solid 9% swing from Conservative to Labour and a 7.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The LDs up to 12 but the Greens polling well on 8 and Reform on 5. It will be fascinating to see how and to what extent we see local "understandings" between the LDs and Greens in some seats. Will Reform fight every seat or will they, for example, avoid contesting seats held by anti-restriction Conservatives (or indeed anti-restriction LDs)?
Fortunately I was not in the house at the time and although I am covered in soot and rather dazed I seem to have escaped mostly unscathed.
And if it did somehow hit that momentary peak the collapse in cases would come immediately after and be steep