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Expectations management – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184
    Case summary

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    UK cases by specimen date

    A lot of red where vaccine uptake is poor, definite signs of Omicron finding those last few people without any immunity.
  • Manchester United have been hit by an outbreak of COVID-19 which meant Sunday’s group training could not take place as planned.

    Ralf Rangnick’s side were only able to complete individual non-contact outdoor sessions after a small number of players and staff returned positive lateral flow tests this morning.

    The individuals who tested positive for the virus were sent home before the training session.

    It is understood the whole group who travelled to Norwich have tested negative. The Premier League have been made aware of the situation.

    As it stands, it is unclear whether their Premier League game against Brentford on Tuesday will go ahead.

    The emergence of the highly-transmissible omicron variant has caused cases to rise in the UK and has seen significant outbreaks at other clubs.

    https://theathletic.com/news/manchester-united-group-training-disrupted-by-covid-19-outbreak/ETVjmaSEHkjP/

    I think we can see there is plenty of immunity escape with Omicron as it is again going through the footballers....and we know they all had it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184
    Hospitals

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  • UK COVID Alert Level increased from Level 3 to Level 4

    epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high and direct COVID pressure on healthcare services is widespread and substantial or rising
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184
    Deaths

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934
    Positives in the Man United camp.
    COVID ones of course.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited December 2021

    UK COVID Alert Level increased from Level 3 to Level 4

    epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high and direct COVID pressure on healthcare services is widespread and substantial or rising

    Here we go....Boris up again on Monday?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The likes of screwfix, zoro, toolstation all sell every variety under the sun from one use to reuseable to full death vadar jobbies. Just search for FFP3 and a big selection will come up.

    I found Zoro particular good, not a company I had heard of before the pandemic, but apparently a very big company in the US.
    One caveat - the high quality masks such as FFP2 and FFP3 often have valves for exhalant air, so they don't filter air going out (so don't protect other folk, though one is muich better off oneself anyway). This is not an issue for DIY work of course!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    UK COVID Alert Level increased from Level 3 to Level 4

    epidemic is in general circulation; transmission is high and direct COVID pressure on healthcare services is widespread and substantial or rising

    Source?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790

    Yes I know. But he didn't overtake. Having nose slightly ahead for a second is not an overtake - and as the "place was given back" we then go back to the lap 1 incident where the stewards lets Lewis leave the track and keep the advantage.

    Or we can go back through the whole season where one then the other had done stuff to edge the other. This is sport.
    I'm not arguing it should be reversed - it shouldn't - it's just I'd have expected the bookies to have waited a while. They paid out within 2 minutes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184
    Age related data

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,658
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Source?
    Alert on my work phone. We're plugged into the news from government (and other sources).

    Edit - Here's Chris Hope confirming it.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1470073779296641028
  • Carnyx said:

    One caveat - the high quality masks such as FFP2 and FFP3 often have valves for exhalant air, so they don't filter air going out (so don't protect other folk, though one is muich better off oneself anyway). This is not an issue for DIY work of course!
    Yes that's a good point.
  • Alert on my work phone. We're plugged into the news from government (and other sources).
    SKY has just reported this too.
  • Yes you can. I’m not sure what remedies the CAB can impose but winding the race back a lap wouldn’t be “breaking the rules” if it’s in their gift.

    I don’t know but I doubt you know.
    If someone can point me in the direction of the regulation allowing this? The race was not suspended so none of the applicable elements about last full lap apply. Nor have any of the pundits pointed to regulations allowing this having pulled and picked at various other regulations.

    It doesn't exist. @maaarsh saying I am picking an argument doesn't make me wrong. And as I have said repeatedly Lewis deserved to win. But "deserved to" isn't the same as "has done". Seems fairly clear Masi got it wrong - initially I thought he'd let them all past. But I don't see "deliberate cheating to let Max win" as keeps being suggested.

    This is sport. Shit happens. Should have had Hamilton on tyres that weren't clinging to life.
  • Farooq said:

    It's important to note that many inputs influence the overall incidence rate. Demographics, geography, weather, mask-wearing and other behaviours, and so on. It would be a gross fallacy to expect all masked jurisdictions to have lower incidence than all non-masked ones.

    Let me use an analogy. Higher-paid people tend to have more money in the bank than lower paid ones. But if you look at individuals, you can easily find a high-paid person with a lower bank balance than a low-paid one. Perhaps they've had a big expense recently. Perhaps they spend uncontrollably. Perhaps they've squirrelled their wealth into non-cash assets. And so on.
    If you look two particular bank balances and find they're similar, and conclude that pay rate makes no difference, you'd be making the small-sample fallacy.
    A proper statistical analysis can mitigate these effects by controlling for other known variables. It's similar to what goes on in MRP polls.
    It is certainly complex but I wear a mask to respect other people no matter I do struggle if it is for more than 30 minutes or so
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The likes of screwfix, zoro, toolstation all sell every variety under the sun from one use to reuseable to full death vadar jobbies. Just search for FFP3 and a big selection will come up.

    I found Zoro particular good, not a company I had heard of before the pandemic, but apparently a very big company in the US.

    I personally don't trust a lot of the listings on Amazon.
    Agree entirely re Amazon and the like.

    I use Hewats of Edinburgh - a medical and workwear specialist - because I was already buying their surgical gloves for DIY etc anyway. But other suppliers are available.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,071

    Here we go....Boris up again on Monday?
    even the less cynic would begin to think there is important political vote to double down on using all tools at disposal.
  • Here we go....Boris up again on Monday?
    On Zoom !!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Yes that's a good point.
    Should have said, sorry, not aimed at you but to help CHB ...
  • maaarsh said:

    Last response as there's no point debating with someone just up for an argument who doesn't understand basics of the situation. Max pulled alongside and slightly ahead at the optimal spot to restart, blocking Lewis from controlling the restart at the point he would have chosen to gone. As if they gift he'd already received wasn't enough.
    I understand it entirely. "Up for an argument" = "disagrees with me".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited December 2021

    On Zoom !!!
    First question....please write down in full the FIA rules on the order of cars following a safety car event....
  • dixiedean said:

    What specifically are you doing to ensure you and your family are infected pronto then?
    It is the logical end point of your argument.
    As a responsible citizen you should call round here and stay with me till you test positive.
    But you aren't doing that, are you?
    What I was specifically doing is after getting my vaccine living my life naturally without a mask or any other interventions and letting nature take its course. If I got infected, I got infected. I may have been already and never know if I was asymptomatic but just let nature take its course.

    In other words I was practicing what I preach. While my grandparents I know were wearing their masks. Good, that's sensible risk segmentation. If they get infected it'd be more serious than if I did, so they should be masked up and I shouldn't.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Here we go....Boris up again on Monday?
    I'm expecting the lockdown to be announced on the next scheduled review date, next Saturday, Dec 18. That'll allow the Parliamentary by-election on Thursday to be cleared first, but enable rules to (presumably) be railroaded through just in time to persuade that fraction of the population that's still very frightened, scrupulously law-abiding, or still willing to listen to Johnson's bullshit (no laughing at the back) to cancel Christmas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934

    First question....please write down in full the FIA rules on the order of cars following a safety car event....
    Answer. Labour want to legalise Class A drugs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917

    If I was wearing a mask while encouraging others not to then you'd have a point.

    You don't. Until it was the law I was following my own advice and not wearing a mask. I knew I could reduce my own risk by wearing an FFP2 mask but I'm not worried about being vulnerable so I would rather take my chances with the vaccine being enough and save the masks for the vulnerable instead.
    Maybe the best thing would be for the law to be changed so that people don't need to wear a mask provided they have "I don't give a toss about other people's lives" tattooed on their foreheads.

    It would probably be a public service in the long run.
  • tlg86 said:

    SPoTY market suspended.

    No it isn't. Overseas SPotY is (that's the one with Max; insert your own jokes about how they will unsuspend).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases. Some evidence that cases are actually flattening out out the rise. R is still just above 1
    - Hospitalisations. Rising, but R is only just above 1
    - Deaths. Appear to be flat (ish)

    To sum up on the new Malmesbury Scale...

    0-10
    0 = All COVID vanished last night
    10 = Zombie Reverse Vampire Apocalypse. Think Bicester, 1987, Friday night, chucking out time.

    Given the above indicators I award the current situation a 6/10 - Same Shit, Different Day, Not Much Change.

    Love the new index - good idea @MoonRabbit
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Actually, Brazil 2003 is an example of a race result being changed after the event because of a **** up by race direction. So that precedent is there.
  • I didn't even know we were still messing about with COVID Alert Level 3.5 and such.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206

    Manchester United have been hit by an outbreak of COVID-19 which meant Sunday’s group training could not take place as planned.

    Ralf Rangnick’s side were only able to complete individual non-contact outdoor sessions after a small number of players and staff returned positive lateral flow tests this morning.

    The individuals who tested positive for the virus were sent home before the training session.

    It is understood the whole group who travelled to Norwich have tested negative. The Premier League have been made aware of the situation.

    As it stands, it is unclear whether their Premier League game against Brentford on Tuesday will go ahead.

    The emergence of the highly-transmissible omicron variant has caused cases to rise in the UK and has seen significant outbreaks at other clubs.

    https://theathletic.com/news/manchester-united-group-training-disrupted-by-covid-19-outbreak/ETVjmaSEHkjP/

    Yes, half a dozen Leicester players are off with it too, hence tha academy players on the bench and only one fit centre back.
  • pigeon said:

    I'm expecting the lockdown to be announced on the next scheduled review date, next Saturday, Dec 18. That'll allow the Parliamentary by-election on Thursday to be cleared first, but enable rules to (presumably) be railroaded through just in time to persuade that fraction of the population that's still very frightened, scrupulously law-abiding, or still willing to listen to Johnson's bullshit (no laughing at the back) to cancel Christmas.
    Parliament closes for Christmas on Tuesday after the days business
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    What is materially different under Level 4 and Level 3? I didn’t even know we had levels any more, and if someone had asked me what level we were at an hour ago, I would have had no idea.

    Probably just a ruse to put pressure on the rebels on Tuesday’s vote. I suspect it won’t work.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934

    What I was specifically doing is after getting my vaccine living my life naturally without a mask or any other interventions and letting nature take its course. If I got infected, I got infected. I may have been already and never know if I was asymptomatic but just let nature take its course.

    In other words I was practicing what I preach. While my grandparents I know were wearing their masks. Good, that's sensible risk segmentation. If they get infected it'd be more serious than if I did, so they should be masked up and I shouldn't.
    Yes. But if you get yourself deliberately infected ASAP. you could make it easier on yourself and not infect your grandparents or anybody else. But you don't.
  • Anyone arguing masks don't work at all is a muppet frankly and best ignored
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184

    Love the new index - good idea @MoonRabbit
    I am waiting for people to tell me that Bicester wasn't that bad.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Chris said:

    Maybe the best thing would be for the law to be changed so that people don't need to wear a mask provided they have "I don't give a toss about other people's lives" tattooed on their foreheads.

    It would probably be a public service in the long run.
    People shouldn't be out and about with Covid whether they have a mask on or not. A downside of blanket mask directives is that people who have Covid think it's Ok to leave their houses as long as they have a mask on - it's not Ok and this point should be continually and loudly repeated I think.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Chris said:

    Maybe the best thing would be for the law to be changed so that people don't need to wear a mask provided they have "I don't give a toss about other people's lives" tattooed on their foreheads.

    It would probably be a public service in the long run.
    Wouldn’t it be more effective to simply state fund FFP3 masks for the vulnerable?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,071

    UK COVID Summary

    - Cases. Some evidence that cases are actually flattening out out the rise. R is still just above 1
    - Hospitalisations. Rising, but R is only just above 1
    - Deaths. Appear to be flat (ish)

    To sum up on the new Malmesbury Scale...

    0-10
    0 = All COVID vanished last night
    10 = Zombie Reverse Vampire Apocalypse. Think Bicester, 1987, Friday night, chucking out time.

    Given the above indicators I award the current situation a 6/10 - Same Shit, Different Day, Not Much Change.

    image

    🧟‍♀️ For those of us in a hurry it’s important to know wether to simply wear a mask, or aim for the head
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    tlg86 said:

    Actually, Brazil 2003 is an example of a race result being changed after the event because of a **** up by race direction. So that precedent is there.

    It's not really a very good precedent. They didn't change the result, just the moment at which the result was measured because a race official hadn't seen that Fisichella had started another lap before the red flag and counted back the wrong number. I don't see how that is an option here.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,658
    edited December 2021
    BIG NEWS: when Labour is behind in the polls it’s Keir’s fault, but when Labour are ahead in the polls it has nothing to do with Keir.

    https://twitter.com/charwrites_/status/1470016071264522241
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Anyone arguing masks don't work at all is a muppet frankly and best ignored

    Bit unfair on Kermit & Co, surely.

    Just spent a long and fairly energetic morning in what FrancisUrquhart calls a Darth Vader jobbie clearing out my late father's sawdust-laden workshop, as it happens.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    The best analogy I can think of for what happened in F1 today is imagine in the Euros football final, Italy were 1 - 0 down with two minutes of extra time to go.

    On top of that they’ve had a man sent off, two injured and used all their subs so playing with 8 men.

    Then a wayward Italian clearance hits a beach ball that’s been thrown on the pitch and freakishly goes in the England goal (as happened in a Liverpool/Sunderland match).

    As extra time ends the fourth official announces that Italy are allowed to make 3 extra substitutions so that they have an equal amount of penalty takers and so Italy bring on fresh brilliant penalty takers from their bench.

    Everyone would say “that’s patently ridiculous, not only were England winning until a freak situation happened right at the death but also you’ve changed the rules ahead of the crucial stage which inherently benefits the opposition……”
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Answer. Labour want to legalise Class A drugs.
    Deaths usually appear to be flat surely?

    Edit - attached to wrong post!! Apologies
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Wouldn’t it be more effective to simply state fund FFP3 masks for the vulnerable?
    I do sometimes wonder why that hasn't been done.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184

    🧟‍♀️ For those of us in a hurry it’s important to know wether to simply wear a mask, or aim for the head
    Do! Both! Maggot!

    A! Marine! Can! Wear! His! Respirator! And! Still! Give! The! Enemy! The! Good! News! With! His! M14! At! 500! Yards!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I didn't even know we were still messing about with COVID Alert Level 3.5 and such.

    Indeed. I suspect nobody did. Does anyone pay any attention to this clap trap any more?
  • Red Bull meeting with the stewards over. If you can read anything into the look on Christian Horner’s face as he walked through the paddock, he did not look a happy chap

    https://twitter.com/ianparkesf1/status/1470075911961731074
  • Farooq said:

    Importantly, masks work even when not everyone is able to wear them. I sympathise with the difficulty even if I don't share it. We need to take discomfort (and worse) into account when deciding what the right course of action is. I admire the effort you make despite your struggle.
    Thank you but we all need to be responsible (are you listening Boris)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    I do sometimes wonder why that hasn't been done.
    I understand initially the idea of telling people to make their own cloth ones. But we really should have switched to public education about what the different gradings mean to enable people to make an informed choice.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Farooq said:

    It's important to note that many inputs influence the overall incidence rate. Demographics, geography, weather, mask-wearing and other behaviours, and so on. It would be a gross fallacy to expect all masked jurisdictions to have lower incidence than all non-masked ones.

    Let me use an analogy. Higher-paid people tend to have more money in the bank than lower paid ones. But if you look at individuals, you can easily find a high-paid person with a lower bank balance than a low-paid one. Perhaps they've had a big expense recently. Perhaps they spend uncontrollably. Perhaps they've squirrelled their wealth into non-cash assets. And so on.
    If you look two particular bank balances and find they're similar, and conclude that pay rate makes no difference, you'd be making the small-sample fallacy.
    A proper statistical analysis can mitigate these effects by controlling for other known variables. It's similar to what goes on in MRP polls.
    That's reasonable, but the absence of any clear and significant difference between England (as control group) and the three jurisdictions that have retained mask mandates - and other mitigations on top of that, lest we forget - throughout late Summer and Autumn, strikes one as rather odd if these kinds of low-level interventions are meant to be of value. Some of the details are also peculiar: Scotland appears to have had a huge spike in its case rate at the end of the Summer, consistent with the fact that Scottish school holidays begin and end earlier than in the remainder of the UK, despite the fact that mask wearing in secondary schools was never ditched. Why is that?

    Anyway it would be helpful were someone with an appropriate statistical background to crunch the numbers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221

    Red Bull meeting with the stewards over. If you can read anything into the look on Christian Horner’s face as he walked through the paddock, he did not look a happy chap

    https://twitter.com/ianparkesf1/status/1470075911961731074

    The photo is of Horner on the way in.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I detect a cunning plan. Total lockdown announced starting Thursday 16 December. Polling stations in North Shropshire all closed. In the interests of democracy, by-election to go ahead but will just be based on postal votes already received. Tories win. Job done. Lockdown lifted on Friday 17 December.

    :D Michael Masi has clearly been hired as a senior adviser to government
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,632
    Johnson press conference at 8pm.... any ideas what that's about?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917

    Wouldn’t it be more effective to simply state fund FFP3 masks for the vulnerable?
    Who knows, without a scientific evaluation of the people who are some weighted mixture of too stupid to understand a simple statement, or too selfish to care?
  • UK chief medical officers: "Data on severity will become clearer over the coming weeks but hospitalisations from Omicron are already occurring and these are likely to increase rapidly"

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1470076735408549892?s=20
  • I detect a cunning plan. Total lockdown announced starting Thursday 16 December. Polling stations in North Shropshire all closed. In the interests of democracy, by-election to go ahead but will just be based on postal votes already received. Tories win. Job done. Lockdown lifted on Friday 17 December.

    That is so cynical and funny
  • I don't think people mean FFP3 do they? It's FFP2 that are the better ones, FFP3 aren't the equivalent to the US 95 from what I just Googled
  • Who is going to listen to the lying charlatan?

    God knows what will happen if Russian invade Ukraine and this clown is still in charge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited December 2021
    rkrkrk said:

    Johnson press conference at 8pm.... any ideas what that's about?

    Lockdown here we come...

    Edit - Johnson is not expected to announce any new Covid restrictions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/johnson-to-address-nation-on-booster-jabs-amid-omicron-concerns
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,346
    tlg86 said:

    Actually, Brazil 2003 is an example of a race result being changed after the event because of a **** up by race direction. So that precedent is there.

    Thanks, I'd forgotten about that:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Brazilian_Grand_Prix#Timekeeping_error

    A race much more remembered for this:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ts07b7uo7E

    I was on my coastal walk at that time, and my notes say I watched the start of the GP, but then I discovered the campsite had a bath. So I missed most of a really eventful race because a bath took precedence ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I understand initially the idea of telling people to make their own cloth ones. But we really should have switched to public education about what the different gradings mean to enable people to make an informed choice.
    Indeed, and generally on how to use them properly. That would help eradicate one of the anti-maskers' few decent arguments - that people don't use them properly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,252

    Can I just have an update on things, so BoJo was at a party he claimed didn't happen and there are more photos to come right?

    rkrkrk said:

    Johnson press conference at 8pm.... any ideas what that's about?

    Resignation?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    Indeed. I suspect nobody did. Does anyone pay any attention to this clap trap any more?
    The thing is that most people get their information from mainstream news outlets - no wonder they are fucking terrified.

    If everyone added PB to their news-feed, with the different views and intelligence on display here, we'd all be in a better position.

    We are about to re-enter a world where everyone is frightened of catching Covid from people who haven't got Covid (and vice versa).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Depends on the severity really. 150k cases of Omicron per day may only present the same number of severe cases in a largely immunised population as 20-30k Delta cases per day, a least that's what the SA Delta to Omicron comparison indicates.
    Indeed. 150k was a random number. My point is that there is a level of cases that is manageable and a level which is not
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,464
    edited December 2021
    I reckon this will be a "be careful", "use your common sense", but things are looking worse and if they continue to do so we will be forced to introduce further restrictions.

    It is clear the SAGE lot will have been showing him loads of scary graphs all day.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,781
    rkrkrk said:

    Johnson press conference at 8pm.... any ideas what that's about?

    Live update from one of his Xmas parties?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,184

    Anyone arguing masks don't work at all is a muppet frankly and best ignored

    I asked a great man the answer to this :

    image
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,071

    Anyone arguing masks don't work at all is a muppet frankly and best ignored

    By the time the government ramp this ahead of the vote we may end arguing wether silver bullets really work to save us or are just a myth.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Johnson press conference at 8pm.... any ideas what that's about?

    Covid and omicron and stricter measures

    This may make Boris's rebels look out of touch as the country will support measures to keep people safe
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    @Malmesbury

    So, we're closer to Zombie Apocalypse than End of Pandemic then. A sobering thought.
  • Lockdown here we come...

    Edit - Johnson is not expected to announce any new Covid restrictions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/johnson-to-address-nation-on-booster-jabs-amid-omicron-concerns
    Nadhim Zahawi mentioned that Boris is doing a vaccine update tonight, on Trevor Phillips earlier. So I don't think we are going to see anything dramatic.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    Stocky said:

    People shouldn't be out and about with Covid whether they have a mask on or not. A downside of blanket mask directives is that people who have Covid think it's Ok to leave their houses as long as they have a mask on - it's not Ok and this point should be continually and loudly repeated I think.
    How stupid must you be if you think that's an argument against wearing masks? The mind boggles.

    Really and truly, the human race is too stupid to survive!
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,632
    Jonathan said:

    Oh man.

    Sitting here for CV19 booster. 😀
    Son gets result of positive PCR test. 😱

    Don’t need this.

    Wife due to have CT scan for cancer investigation on Tuesday😬🤞
    Father in law alas has days/ weeks left with lung cancer. 😔
    Work having reorg to having to reapply for job. 😡

    When life comes at you, it really comes at you.

    Best wishes - that sounds like a very full plate!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Answer. Labour want to legalise Class A drugs.
    Something weird going on with quotes?? Keeps saying "one character short" and/or attaching to wrong post.
  • Jonathan said:

    Oh man.

    Sitting here for CV19 booster. 😀
    Son gets result of positive PCR test. 😱

    Don’t need this.

    Wife due to have CT scan for cancer investigation on Tuesday😬🤞
    Father in law alas has days/ weeks left with lung cancer. 😔
    Work having reorg to having to reapply for job. 😡

    When life comes at you, it really comes at you.

    Lock him outside in the shed.....
  • tlg86 said:

    Actually, Brazil 2003 is an example of a race result being changed after the event because of a **** up by race direction. So that precedent is there.

    Sure. After the race was suspended and the timekeeping was wrong. This race was not suspended, no errors in timekeeping etc etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I don't think people mean FFP3 do they? It's FFP2 that are the better ones, FFP3 aren't the equivalent to the US 95 from what I just Googled

    No, FFP3 are better than FFP2 AIUI. See eg.

    "The British Standard BS EN 149:2001 covers disposable filtering facepiece (FFP) respirators.
    FFP respirators are classified as FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3 according to the level of protection
    afforded as assessed by specified laboratory tests, with FFP3 offering the most protection. In
    order to aid the correct selection of ‘adequate’ RPE assigned protection factors (APF) have
    been derived, and for FFP respirators these are 4, 10 and 20 respectively. The APF is the ratio
    of pollutant outside the device to that inside the device and is defined by British Standard BS
    EN 529:2005 as the ‘level of respiratory protection that can realistically be expected to be
    achieved in the workplace by 95% of adequately trained and supervised wearers using a
    properly functioning and correctly fitted respiratory protective device and is based on the 5th
    percentile of the Workplace Protection Factor (WPF) data’. APFs are published by both BS
    EN 529:2005 and by HSE in its RPE guidance HSG53 (HSE 2005a). Table 1 shows the
    efficiency requirement levels for the three classes of filtering facepieces from British Standards,
    together with their assigned protection factors"

    https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr619.pdf

    I certainly hope so as I've spent a morning rummaging around in a very dusty woodwork room in a FFP3!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934

    Lockdown here we come...

    Edit - Johnson is not expected to announce any new Covid restrictions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/johnson-to-address-nation-on-booster-jabs-amid-omicron-concerns
    Yes. He'll burble away about the wonderful booster programme.
    The one that couldn't jab me on time last week.
    But apparently can do everyone over 30 next week.
  • I asked a great man the answer to this :

    image
    What's a prevert?
  • Nadhim Zahawi mentioned that Boris is doing a vaccine update tonight, on Trevor Phillips earlier. So I don't think we are going to see anything dramatic.
    We are getting primed here.....I am absolutely convinced of this....its the same pattern as always.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934
    Bloody hell.
    Everton are poor.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,632

    Resignation?
    Not exactly managing my expectations down there mate...
  • BIG NEWS: when Labour is behind in the polls it’s Keir’s fault, but when Labour are ahead in the polls it has nothing to do with Keir.

    https://twitter.com/charwrites_/status/1470016071264522241

    Not really sure what the point is. Politics is not a controlled experiment where Boris has not spent the last few weeks nausing things up. Maybe if Jezza were still around Boris wouldn't have felt like letting his hair down at a Christmas business meeting. A little of column A and a little of column B.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    "The UK's coronavirus alert level has been raised to level four due to the spread of Omicron, the UK's chief medical officers have said.

    The last time the UK was at level four was in May"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59629916
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    Johnson addressing the nation at 8 o'clock and for once his boosterism is exactly what's needed. Big push on 3rd jabs has to be the number one priority.
  • dixiedean said:

    Bloody hell.
    Everton are poor.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYttyN96Aa0
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,617
    By addressing the nation !!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    Parliament closes for Christmas on Tuesday after the days business
    Easy enough recalled.

    (NB I'm usually wrong about anything to do with politics. I've decided that if I keep predicting new dates for the next lockdown then, as with those weird American cults that keep trying to prophesy the Rapture, it will never happen. No need to thank me.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,071

    I detect a cunning plan. Total lockdown announced starting Thursday 16 December. Polling stations in North Shropshire all closed. In the interests of democracy, by-election to go ahead but will just be based on postal votes already received. Tories win. Job done. Lockdown lifted on Friday 17 December.

    As per page 178 of the foreign office report on Belarus election. At least someone’s reading through their red boxes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,934
    Jonathan said:

    Oh man.

    Sitting here for CV19 booster. 😀
    Son gets result of positive PCR test. 😱

    Don’t need this.

    Wife due to have CT scan for cancer investigation on Tuesday😬🤞
    Father in law alas has days/ weeks left with lung cancer. 😔
    Work having reorg to having to reapply for job. 😡

    When life comes at you, it really comes at you.

    That shouldn't be a like. Best of luck.
    Anecdotal positives are coming thick and fast.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    What's a prevert?
    I wondered that. It sounds fun.
  • Carnyx said:

    No, FFP3 are better than FFP2 AIUI. See eg.

    "The British Standard BS EN 149:2001 covers disposable filtering facepiece (FFP) respirators.
    FFP respirators are classified as FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3 according to the level of protection
    afforded as assessed by specified laboratory tests, with FFP3 offering the most protection. In
    order to aid the correct selection of ‘adequate’ RPE assigned protection factors (APF) have
    been derived, and for FFP respirators these are 4, 10 and 20 respectively. The APF is the ratio
    of pollutant outside the device to that inside the device and is defined by British Standard BS
    EN 529:2005 as the ‘level of respiratory protection that can realistically be expected to be
    achieved in the workplace by 95% of adequately trained and supervised wearers using a
    properly functioning and correctly fitted respiratory protective device and is based on the 5th
    percentile of the Workplace Protection Factor (WPF) data’. APFs are published by both BS
    EN 529:2005 and by HSE in its RPE guidance HSG53 (HSE 2005a). Table 1 shows the
    efficiency requirement levels for the three classes of filtering facepieces from British Standards,
    together with their assigned protection factors"

    https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr619.pdf

    I certainly hope so as I've spent a morning rummaging around in a very dusty woodwork room in a FFP3!
    That's not what I meant, apologies for my poor posting.

    I meant, Boots etc are selling the FFP2 ones which are the ones I see most people wearing when they go for higher quality ones. And FFP2 I think are very effective, FFP3 moreso but not a huge difference for COVID from what I call.

    I believe FFP2 is equivalent to 95 for the US?

    N95 and FFP2 are similar kinds of respiratory masks. These masks supposedly protect both the wearer and people around them. The World Health Organisation cites studies which show the filtration systems of FFP2 and N95 masks are 94 and 95 per cent effective respectively. Their enhanced effectiveness has led to countries such as Austria and Germany making them a requirement on public transport. FFP3 masks are the most effective, followed by FFP2/N95, then surgical masks and, finally, cloth masks.

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/what-are-n95-and-ffp2-face-masks
  • https://www.airpophealth.com/uk/airpop-pocket-4pcs-black

    These look really interesting but unsure of effectiveness
This discussion has been closed.