Labour flops in OBS as CON holds with 51.5% of vote – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Finally, they're going to arrest Hancock over the PPE corruption.BlancheLivermore said:
@JasonGroves1BlancheLivermore said:@PoliticsForAlI
1m
Police cars revolving light | NEW: Something in happening in Whitehall. Been blocked off by Police - lots of blue lights
Whitehall sealed off by police. Not clear what's happening, but a lot of blue lights arriving
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/14667118805048565763 -
Defeating the Tories means a progressive alliance, led by Labour.Carnyx said:
Defeating the Tories means reducing the number of Tory MPs. IIRC all the Tories have SNP in second place. Simply trying to replace SNP MPs by Labour does nothing to defeat the Tories, and indeed risks letting them in. So "Some SNP voters would prefer to defeat Boris than to re-elect an SNP MP" simp[ly does not make sense - 'seek to elect where there isn't a SNP MP', yes, but not where there is a SNP MP already.Gardenwalker said:
Not intended to work where Labour is in third place. Read my posts again.Carnyx said:
Quite. And voting Labour or indeed LD when they are third place after the Tory is an irrational strategy.Pulpstar said:
Some SNP voters would prefer to defeat Boris than to re-elect an SNP MP.Gardenwalker said:
Some SNP voters would prefer to defeat Boris than to re-elect an SNP MP.StuartDickson said:
So, you think that Labour strategy ought to include the message that “SNP voters can defeat Boris via tactical voting”? Pray tell, in which seats are the SLab candidates in 2nd place behind the sitting SCon MPs?Gardenwalker said:
Yes, all of those.StuartDickson said:
- “ publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland”Gardenwalker said:
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.algarkirk said:
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.eek said:
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.Philip_Thompson said:Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48%
Libs 42%
Lab 2%
Green 3%
Others 5%
Turnout 43%
Huh? Which seven?
Edinburgh South HOLD is the obvious list candidate, but thereafter?
East Lothian Coast
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
… but then it gets harder…
Coatbridge and Bellshill?
Glasgow Central?
Midlothian?
… then it gets super hard…
Airdrie and Shotts??
Rutherglen??
In a way, it doesn’t matter if they win them or not. The message is:
1. SNP voters can defeat Boris via tactical voting
2. Unionists should vote Labour in some seats
3. Labour knows Scotland is decisive
4. Labour is not soft on the SNP.
To win a progressive majority that can form a government; Keir needs several strategies, as a general swing won’t do it.
This is part of a Scottish strategy.
It’s a strategy for Lab-sympathetic SNP voters in seats where Labour can win either through an SNP > Labour swing or a SNP + LD > Labour swing.
The SNP won't support a Tory Gov't - certainly Sturgeon's SNP won't. You can "defeat Boris" by either voting Labour or SNP.
The SNP can’t be relied upon for a proper coalition so the order of priority from a Labour perspective is:
Lab > LibDem > SNP > Tory.
Labour needs more seats, by converting SNP ones.
To a lesser extent it needs fewer Tory seats, but it is difficult for Labour to actively promote the SNP against the Tories without triggering wider issues in the Union.0 -
Ukraine is an Impossible State. Like the old Yugoslavia.Nigelb said:Good article on possible Russian intentions towards Ukraine.
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/will-putin-invade-ukraine-again/
Includes an extended passage on what a proven, barefaced and consistent liar Putin is.
Deliberative, rather than random use of dishonesty (as in the case of, for example, Boris).
It is going to fall to pieces. With or without the bloody instructions of Putin.0 -
I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=211 -
Also disproportionate numbers of non-whites, who didn't bother with the first two doses?Malmesbury said:
Lots of younger staff?another_richard said:Can anyone explain why so many in the NHS haven't had their booster dose ?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccinations-
archive/
Just starting to do under 50s.....0 -
An observation is that the Tory vote actually fell more in Old Bexley & Sidcup than in Chesham & Amersham (numerically it fell 18,597 compared with 17,361, in percentage terms by 62.4% compared with 56.3%).
There will be an element of complacency and an element of it being December there. But people do turnout on cold days in safe seats if they are motivated to do so.
Labour should, of course, be pretty worried that they aren't sealing the deal - turnout does revive in General Elections, they weren't getting the switchers, and indeed there was apathy from their supporters too.
But it does suggest to me that the Lib Dems need 15k votes in Shropshire North, and will feel that is not easy but perfectly possible. They put on about 7k votes in Chesham from a higher base, which wouldn't quite be enough but there's a larger Labour vote to squeeze.0 -
But that's the point. EVEL didn't stop the SNP from voting on English-only matters.Carnyx said:
But the SNP were permitted to do that by the Speaker and the Clerks, on the facts of the matter, which is how EVEL worked. It was not up to the SNP.Philip_Thompson said:
EVEL was a bad joke that didn't work.Carnyx said:
It's very odd that the Tories under Johnson cancelled EVEL. Almost as if they wanted to concoct a grievance against SKS if he falls into that trap.StuartDickson said:
I’m all in favour of Scottish legislators having zero say over English affairs. Independence will also be independence for England.Philip_Thompson said:
But the law didn't apply to Scottish staff.StuartDickson said:
To protect the pay of retail workers in Scotland. Scottish shop staff currently got a premium for working on a Sunday but the SNP - and unions like Usdaw - believed that an extension to Sunday shopping hours in England and Wales would increase the likelihood that retailers would pay just single time for staff across the whole of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
The SNP voted on England-only Sunday Trading law changes.StuartDickson said:
IF England had its own parliament then the Tories would still revel in Jock—bashing.HYUFD said:
If England had its own parliament like Scotland then the SNP giving Labour confidence and supply in a hung parliament would be less of an issue in England.Carnyx said:
Tory propaganda portraying it as illegitimate for SNP to be involved in a coalition government or c&s. Will not go down well in Scotland.HolesBayView said:
I don't see how that follows.Carnyx said:
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."HolesBayView said:
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.Gardenwalker said:
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.algarkirk said:
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.eek said:
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.Philip_Thompson said:Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
As it is, Starmer would demand the SNP make him PM and vote on English domestic legislation to give him a working majority in return for him giving the SNP devomax and indyref2
SNPs abstain on England-only legislation. That ain’t going to change. If Starmer wants to change English legislation then he needs to win in England. No shortcuts.
We only vote on English affairs where there is a clear Scottish interest. I suppose Starmer could add Scottish sweeteners to all English legislation?
A change in Irish or Welsh or English or French laws could affect Scottish workers but that doesn't mean that applies to Scotland. American law changes, Chinese law changes can affect us here in the UK too.
If Scotland is independent then that means no say in any English laws, whether they have consequences in Scotland or not.
Sunday trading and the SNP rejecting it proved that.
All EVEL did was mean that there needed to be a double-majority of English-only MPs and all MPs in order to pass legislation. Scottish MPs could still vote to reject English-only law changes.
EVEL was never really English votes.0 -
In the 1951 and 1955 elections William Brownrigg stood for the Independent Conservatives in Penrith and Border on a platform of advocating the abolition of margarine. On a sic transit gloria mundi note, in the second of those elections he lost by over 22,000 votes to one William Whitelaw, even though he more than doubled his vote to 368.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah it is a sad symptom of our age. Gone are the days of proper loonies promoting such wild policies as the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast, free corsets for the under-fives and the abolition of slavery.YBarddCwsc said:
That is realistic. There is a lot of work for Labour to do.LostPassword said:
The average swing to Labour in by-elections this Parliament is now 0.4%. This is not currently an election-winning performance.Sunil_Prasannan said:10% swing to Labour
@bigjohnowls please explain
I think the LibDems may well take North Shropshire. The recent by-election it most reminds me of is Brecon & Radnor. Even though a rural Leaver seat, the LibDems still took it.
Having looked through who is standing, the most remarkable thing is the Monster Raving Loony candidate is clearly very sane compared to some of the other candidates.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59289032
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Ah idiots who unaware of the large numbers of super-extended/merged properties in London that are created for non-Jewish families?Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
Such a policy is interesting. Quite a few loft conversions out there that are pushing the limits - some friend did one, were they had to drop the ceilings on the first floor. Which puts the work out of reach, financially, for many.0 -
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?0 -
The long run average of births is broadly around 750k/year (Or 2,050/day) since the 70s in the UK. Gross inward migration probably adds around the same again.Fishing said:
Also disproportionate numbers of non-whites, who didn't bother with the first two doses?Malmesbury said:
Lots of younger staff?another_richard said:Can anyone explain why so many in the NHS haven't had their booster dose ?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccinations-
archive/
Just starting to do under 50s.....
First and second vaccinations are still rolling along over 20,000 a day - so we are still well above population churn. And we've now got everyone authorised for vaccines that possibly could get them to the maximum degree allowed by global trials for the winter.
The low hanging booster fruit is being jabbed up rapidly, but we're making headway into the harder to reach 1st and 2nd 12+ doses also.
Every day our immunity improves.0 -
Seats in which the LibDems actually campaign tend to have a higher turnout as a result. This includes other parties as well as the LibDem vote itself.SirNorfolkPassmore said:An observation is that the Tory vote actually fell more in Old Bexley & Sidcup than in Chesham & Amersham (numerically it fell 18,597 compared with 17,361, in percentage terms by 62.4% compared with 56.3%).
There will be an element of complacency and an element of it being December there. But people do turnout on cold days in safe seats if they are motivated to do so.
Labour should, of course, be pretty worried that they aren't sealing the deal - turnout does revive in General Elections, they weren't getting the switchers, and indeed there was apathy from their supporters too.
But it does suggest to me that the Lib Dems need 15k votes in Shropshire North, and will feel that is not easy but perfectly possible. They put on about 7k votes in Chesham from a higher base, which wouldn't quite be enough but there's a larger Labour vote to squeeze.0 -
Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.4 -
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?0 -
I'm not convinced they are doing a particularly good job on either front, probably because they don't actually particularly believe in either. If we were serious about getting beyond covid, we should have abolished (as in obliterated and made sure there is no danger of it ever being reassembled) 99%* of test and trace months ago - they are swallowing vast amounts of money to tell us useless data, make people go for loads of pointless test and generally do economic damage whilst having no effect whatsoever on case levels.Foxy said:
It really is quite hard to make a case for REFUK. Being beatly to foreigners and complacent about covid are government policies already. What is the point?IanB2 said:
I did point this out at the weekend, but HY insisted he was about to do very well. All of us forget how little attention most people are paying all this stuff.algarkirk said:
About correct IMHO.Gardenwalker said:
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.algarkirk said:
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.eek said:
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.Philip_Thompson said:Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48%
Libs 42%
Lab 2%
Green 3%
Others 5%
Turnout 43%
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
*we need some testing for those presenting at hospitals as likely cases - like we do for other endemic infections
Interestingly, the amount of mask wearing in shops doesn't appear to have changed this week (I'm not wearing one, neither is almost anyone else), which suggests popular consent for Covid measures has pretty much evaporated. (Revealed preferences at work here, as apposed to the apparent virtue signalling to the pollsters).
I'm mostly voting Reform on the basis that they understand that the current levels of taxation are stifling the economy, and even if their solutions are muddle headed, that's an improvement on any of the other parties. I take RCS's point on the last thread about the demographic problem, although we could make the house price point fairly moot by abolishing most of the planning system (and a lot of the building regs things too which make actually building houses cost about twice as it used to). Collapsing house prices back to the cost of agricultural land + building cost would fairly rapidly change the balance of wealth from old to young, and make most of the stuff about selling the family home for care bills moot.
(and yes, I'm well aware of the problem of negative equity that comes with this - the solution is mostly not to do it overnight, but over 10 years or so).0 -
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?0 -
Considerably higher that the proportion of beds currently occupied by parkour-ers.TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?1 -
That's a great solution, should be made standard and available across London, especially since so many zone 1/2 places already have 3 stories, extending that out to zones 3 and 4 shouldn't be controversial at all.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=211 -
Being a libertarian means living with the consequences as well, the consequences of being an idiotic anti-vaxxer in this country are non-existent. Making them purchase COVID treatment insurance is fair.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?1 -
Is it 10%, 30%? What about the 70%? Are there appropriate taxes on the activities which contribute to that? Sugar, Alcohol, fags yes. But those are also designed to improve health conditions and quality of life. Where does that take us to? It is the principle of paying a tax to indulge in something that is likely to utilise national resource.Philip_Thompson said:
Considerably higher that the proportion of beds currently occupied by parkour-ers.TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
As I said you make a rubbish libertarian.0 -
5.4% ?TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers
The total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2019/20, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare latest number 7,6440 -
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
21m
It's really simple. "The British Government will never implement mandatory vaccines or impose lockdowns on the unvaccinated." Full stop. No if's, no but's, no maybe's, no "we're not planning", just WE WON'T DO IT.
The PM and EVERY minister need to state this loudly and clearly.
===
Nobody would believe the PM anyway, so what's the point?0 -
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.0 -
I'd have thought most beds in the NHS were occupied due to that long term chronic condition... old age.TOPPING said:
Is it 10%, 30%? What about the 70%? Are there appropriate taxes on the activities which contribute to that? Sugar, Alcohol, fags yes. But those are also designed to improve health conditions and quality of life. Where does that take us to? It is the principle of paying a tax to indulge in something that is likely to utilise national resource.Philip_Thompson said:
Considerably higher that the proportion of beds currently occupied by parkour-ers.TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
As I said you make a rubbish libertarian.0 -
Why is it rubbish to let people have the freedom to decide? That's what libertarianism is all about.TOPPING said:
Is it 10%, 30%? What about the 70%? Are there appropriate taxes on the activities which contribute to that? Sugar, Alcohol, fags yes. But those are also designed to improve health conditions and quality of life. Where does that take us to? It is the principle of paying a tax to indulge in something that is likely to utilise national resource.Philip_Thompson said:
Considerably higher that the proportion of beds currently occupied by parkour-ers.TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
As I said you make a rubbish libertarian.
You can make your own choice, however you want. Some choices have a price tag attached to pay for your choice - you can then make an informed decision.0 -
Particularly since it would allow cheaper *and* better quality expansion of properties. At the moment, all kinds of exotic work is being done to turn 2 bed cottages into 3 bed, 3 bed into 4 bed etc.MaxPB said:
That's a great solution, should be made standard and available across London, especially since so many zone 1/2 places already have 3 stories, extending that out to zones 3 and 4 shouldn't be controversial at all.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
The results are often sub optimal despite the money spent.
Hell, even allowing roof lines to be raise for some streets would make a massive difference - a loft conversion that requires droppings ceilings on the 1st floor is an expensive rip-out-the-whole-house thing, usually. A simple loft conversion is much cheaper and quicker.1 -
Bloody hell that thread is extremely worrying. If anything Omicron looks even worse than initially thought, being both extremely transmissible and with significant vaccine escape (not one of the other as otherwise the R0 would have be the worst ever), and the disease appears to be in line with previous variants. Without vaccination we'd be in really deep trouble, even with it the potential for huge numbers of cases is clearly there.Nigelb said:Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).0 -
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. So no help for young adults. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
0 -
Whatever the result in NS an understated feature of it is that is has been assumed almost from day one that the LDs are the serious non Tory candidate. However in the GE 2019 they came a poor third to Con and Lab, and in 2017 polled under 3000 votes (!!).
This is now baked in, and they will come second or (just possibly) first. But the more interesting question - and I think worrying question for Labour - is why??1 -
I really like it and think that the taller properties look more elegant than the normal 2 story ones. Having said that I wish we could do tall building designs like the Germans.MaxPB said:
That's a great solution, should be made standard and available across London, especially since so many zone 1/2 places already have 3 stories, extending that out to zones 3 and 4 shouldn't be controversial at all.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
On a related point, I have no idea how those families cope with so many children. I have 3 between the ages of 12 and 4. I'm permanently exhausted from just the 3 of them!1 -
A basic principle of libertarianism is that absolute freedom ends where your actions impact on others - "Your freedom to swing your fists ends where my nose begins".TOPPING said:
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.2 -
Anything that is a personal choice and has a significant impact on the NHS it is reasonable to attach a price tag to, like tobacco. That principle is already firmly established and entirely reasonable as part and parcel of owning the consequences of your choices.TOPPING said:
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.
Telling people they can't choose is illiberal. Telling people they're free to choose, but some choices have a price attached to pay for that choice is entirely reasonable.1 -
Traditional Scottish tenements have being doing this and more for a couple of centuries or more. It makes a lot of sense to have more people in the centre and able to walk to where they want to go.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=210 -
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
0 -
Very interesting short essay about French use of the term "Anglo-Saxon", and what it means, by a French Reader at Edinburgh Uni.
He argues that it is a metaphor opposite how the French want to see themselves. A few howlers in it, but well worth a read. An "other" is needed for self-justification.
https://aeon.co/essays/the-anglo-saxon-is-not-american-or-british-but-a-french-alter-ego1 -
Having listened to the videos of the candidates here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59289032
I particularly liked the Labour guy. I just loved it to bits when he said at the end of the video, "We all know this is two horse race between Labour and the Tories in North Shropshire." 😀😀😀
Ah, wonderful, such chutzpah. That is the way to deal with our mendacious "Winning Here" friends.
i don't quite see why Plaid Cymru are not standing in a historic Welsh area, so in the absence of PC I'd vote for Ben Wood. He came across as genuinely likeable. I now suspect he may do enough to keep the Labour vote that the LibDems need to squeeze.
As to the other candidates: The Tory and LibDem candidates look like cartoonish caricatures of the Tory and LibDem party -- they are not for me.
And the Loony is insufficiently bonkers.0 -
Feckwittery. Plus higher than average minority ethnic who distrust authority (often with reason).another_richard said:Can anyone explain why so many in the NHS haven't had their booster dose ?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccinations-
archive/0 -
It seems she would prefer lockdowns on the vaccinated.rottenborough said:
Julia Hartley-Brewer
@JuliaHB1
·
21m
It's really simple. "The British Government will never implement mandatory vaccines or impose lockdowns on the unvaccinated." Full stop. No if's, no but's, no maybe's, no "we're not planning", just WE WON'T DO IT.
The PM and EVERY minister need to state this loudly and clearly.
===
Nobody would believe the PM anyway, so what's the point?0 -
I don't think I have ever seen that before. I am not entirely comfortable with it. A jury operates in a quasi judicial capacity and should be impartially and disinterestedly considering the evidence. But if there was ever a case for an exception this was surely it. It must have been harrowing for them.Cyclefree said:Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.
The story on the Head is, sadly, all too typical and an absolute disgrace.0 -
7,644 is UK.Pulpstar said:
5.4% ?TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers
The total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2019/20, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare latest number 7,644
Its 5,915 in England.0 -
Relatively pleased with my prediction.
Very surprised everyone has Tories below 50%.
I suggested that as a benchmark for relative success a couple of weeks ago and no one really demurred.
I think folk suspect the mask thing is not popular. Been a longstanding PB Blindspot.
FWIW.
Con 52
Lab 28
Ref 7
Green 6
LD 4
Others 3.
Prepared to be wrong.1 -
Have you visited London recently? A house without a loft conversion is now rare - generally means that it is either physically impossible or requires an enormous amount of work to do.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.0 -
But there are plenty of idiotic one thing or anotherers in this country. You will be taxing people for not wanting the government to inject something into your body. That is quite a step.MaxPB said:
Being a libertarian means living with the consequences as well, the consequences of being an idiotic anti-vaxxer in this country are non-existent. Making them purchase COVID treatment insurance is fair.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
Let's say you get your news from a variety of sources. What about this for example. The government is going to make you do this. Now it could be rubbish. But what if it isn't and you have some kind of heart condition. What's your next move?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/09/health/researchers-find-a-higher-than-expected-risk-of-myocarditis-in-young-men-after-full-vaccination.html0 -
Quite simply the Lib Dems are a more acceptable form of protest vote at the moment (which is what by-elections are about).algarkirk said:Whatever the result in NS an understated feature of it is that is has been assumed almost from day one that the LDs are the serious non Tory candidate. However in the GE 2019 they came a poor third to Con and Lab, and in 2017 polled under 3000 votes (!!).
This is now baked in, and they will come second or (just possibly) first. But the more interesting question - and I think worrying question for Labour - is why??
Labour have actually done quite a good job in terms of expectations management. They got 1.6% of the vote in Chesham and Amersham (down 11.2 pp on the 2019 GE). If they get 1.6% of the vote in North Shropshire, that would be a fall of over 20 pp. That sort of performance really ought to be newsworthy, but there appears to be an acceptance that Labour isn't fighting to win North Shropshire, so it's no biggy.0 -
I love that a successful British-Asian ex-military, doctor, lawyer etc is a cartoonish caricature of the Tory party in your eyes.YBarddCwsc said:Having listened to the videos of the candidates here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59289032
I particularly liked the Labour guy. I just loved it to bits when he said at the end of the video, "We all know this is two horse race between Labour and the Tories in North Shropshire." 😀😀😀
Ah, wonderful, such chutzpah. That is the way to deal with our mendacious "Winning Here" friends.
i don't quite see why Plaid Cymru are not standing in a historic Welsh area, so in the absence of PC I'd vote for Ben Wood. He came across as genuinely likeable. I now suspect he may do enough to keep the Labour vote that the LibDems need to squeeze.
As to the other candidates: The Tory and LibDem candidates look like cartoonish caricatures of the Tory and LibDem party -- they are not for me.
And the Loony is insufficiently bonkers.
That's one thing the Tory party has really improved on in the past generation and is world's apart from the GOP.
Race really isn't/shouldn't be a factor in 21st century politics. 👍2 -
OBS I think really showed the difference between the dynamics of a Labour by-election campaign and a Lib Dem one. Labour are the principal opposition. When they are the main challenger in the constituency, people will generally only vote for them if a. they are fed up with the Tories (tick), b. they are positive about the idea of a Labour government.
Given the demographics of OBS there really are very few people likely to be in favour of a Labour national government, and Starmer isn't the type who would appeal (Labour would need more of a cheeky geezer type, ideally with a background in the military or police, a detailed knowledge of football and regular use of the word "mate" to succeed there).
Whereas the Lib Dems are not going to form the next government, so you only need people to be sufficiently pissed off with the Tories to convince them to vote Lib Dem. They don't need to like Ed Davey (or even know who he is).
One thing I think OBS does tell us which is interesting for Labour's electoral strategy: leave voting Tories seem to stay home when not enamoured of the government. If Starmer can manage the following triple strategy he might have a way through:
1. Enthuse supporters enough to land some suburban marginals on the South Coast and metropolitan North
2. Avoid further Tory inroads into the Redwall and Thames Estuary due to leave-voter apathy and low turnout
3. Present a non-frightening prospect to potential Lib Dem voters in the remain shires2 -
Must dash team - will pick up on the answers (there are none, I win hands down) later.
I win in any case because there 100% is not going to be any tax on those who haven't been jabbed so it is all moot.0 -
Yes. my point was more that we don't build like that ab initio. seems such a waste.Malmesbury said:
Have you visited London recently? A house without a loft conversion is now rare - generally means that it is either physically impossible or requires an enormous amount of work to do.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
0 -
-
Nah, I'd rather we didn't have that level of detail on health. This hyperventilation over COVID isn't healthy for anyone and extending it to other diseases would be mentally exhausting for the the nation and give the NHS bods all the ammunition they need to ask for more and more of our incomes.Pulpstar said:0 -
Councillor explains why - basically to avoid slumification via conversion into flats - which makes sense in this isolated instance.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. So no help for young adults. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
If this was just default - which it bloody well should be - that problem is reduced somewhat.
The whole idea tells us something important. We have the planning regime entirely the wrong way around.1 -
The council has decided it doesn't want 18 people living in a 3 bedroom flat rented off a slumlord. Big shock.Gardenwalker said:
Councillor explains why - basically to avoid slumification via conversion into flats - which makes sense in this isolated instance.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. So no help for young adults. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
If this was just default - which it bloody well should be - that problem is reduced somewhat.
The whole idea tells us something important. We have the planning regime entirely the wrong way around.0 -
That's quite the stat (halving of beds, increase in treatment). Makes sense though, many more things as day cases, other things in and out much more quickly. Even maternity - when I was born it was usual for the mother and child to have several days in hospital; for our children we had one night in with number 1 (at our choice - we were given the option to leave late at night or in the morning) and were out the same day with number 2. Of course, back then there was no statutory paternity leave, so mothers needed more direct state support, I guess.Pulpstar said:
5.4% ?TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers
The total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2019/20, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare latest number 7,6440 -
On Omicron this doesn't seem so bad? Maybe doesn't transmit as faster as Delta, the issue is that if you've already had one of the other strains you can get reinfected with this one.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/14665368174196449330 -
It's a feature of shite new builds - enables them to cram more into a smaller footprint.IshmaelZ said:
Yes. my point was more that we don't build like that ab initio. seems such a waste.Malmesbury said:
Have you visited London recently? A house without a loft conversion is now rare - generally means that it is either physically impossible or requires an enormous amount of work to do.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
Outside London (and certain portions of other big cities) there is no particular space problem in existing houses.0 -
That was a shitty stick to have to hold. At best it was people who had been working together al day, then having a drink together in the same location. At worst it was a big FU to the rest of the country. I don't doubt that the people involved were under a lot of stress at the time, but so were a lot of people.IanB2 said:Last night's QT with the vaccines minister petrified to depart from the 'authorised' words about last year's illegal Tory Xmas Party, amid some audience hilarity, is an amusing watch,
That said, I'm pretty fed up with the opposition approach on this. First question at PMQ's by Stormer? There are more important things right now, not least the shambles on the power distribution network in Scotland/Northern England.0 -
Bit strong - many 'modern' houses don't have dormer windows, eg 1930s bungalows, 1950s-on dets and semis unless converted. But yes, traditionally many Scottish houses have dormers. My family house had three generous bedrooms, one walkin cupboard, and 2 attic storage spaces all in the roof when built in 1880-ish.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.0 -
Maybe in part because Scottish houses often have steeper roof pitches owing to high levels of rainfall? English council planning departments remain highly dormer-averse, even for the rear of properties. It took two attempts to get ours through. They really do transform a loft space.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
I wouldn't want to see that Haringey solution adopted in our neighbourhood though, those houses look poorly proportioned and the uneven roofline is ugly. Unlikely where we live anyway as it's a conservation area.0 -
Snowfall too.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Maybe in part because Scottish houses often have steeper roof pitches owing to high levels of rainfall? English council planning departments remain highly dormer-averse, even for the rear of properties. It took two attempts to get ours through. They really do transform a loft space.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
I wouldn't want to see that Haringey solution adopted in our neighbourhood though, those houses look poorly proportioned and the uneven roofline is ugly. Unlikely where we live anyway as it's a conservation area.1 -
I would add;TimS said:OBS I think really showed the difference between the dynamics of a Labour by-election campaign and a Lib Dem one. Labour are the principal opposition. When they are the main challenger in the constituency, people will generally only vote for them if a. they are fed up with the Tories (tick), b. they are positive about the idea of a Labour government.
Given the demographics of OBS there really are very few people likely to be in favour of a Labour national government, and Starmer isn't the type who would appeal (Labour would need more of a cheeky geezer type, ideally with a background in the military or police, a detailed knowledge of football and regular use of the word "mate" to succeed there).
Whereas the Lib Dems are not going to form the next government, so you only need people to be sufficiently pissed off with the Tories to convince them to vote Lib Dem. They don't need to like Ed Davey (or even know who he is).
One thing I think OBS does tell us which is interesting for Labour's electoral strategy: leave voting Tories seem to stay home when not enamoured of the government. If Starmer can manage the following triple strategy he might have a way through:
1. Enthuse supporters enough to land some suburban marginals on the South Coast and metropolitan North
2. Avoid further Tory inroads into the Redwall and Thames Estuary due to leave-voter apathy and low turnout
3. Present a non-frightening prospect to potential Lib Dem voters in the remain shires
4. Mitigate the “Sturgeon’s pocket” meme via a Scottish strategy like the one I outlined above.
5. Ward off Green leakage via a special offer to younger voters.0 -
I think that is a fair comment.Philip_Thompson said:
I love that a successful British-Asian ex-military, doctor, lawyer etc is a cartoonish caricature of the Tory party in your eyes.YBarddCwsc said:Having listened to the videos of the candidates here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59289032
I particularly liked the Labour guy. I just loved it to bits when he said at the end of the video, "We all know this is two horse race between Labour and the Tories in North Shropshire." 😀😀😀
Ah, wonderful, such chutzpah. That is the way to deal with our mendacious "Winning Here" friends.
i don't quite see why Plaid Cymru are not standing in a historic Welsh area, so in the absence of PC I'd vote for Ben Wood. He came across as genuinely likeable. I now suspect he may do enough to keep the Labour vote that the LibDems need to squeeze.
As to the other candidates: The Tory and LibDem candidates look like cartoonish caricatures of the Tory and LibDem party -- they are not for me.
And the Loony is insufficiently bonkers.
That's one thing the Tory party has really improved on in the past generation and is world's apart from the GOP.
Race really isn't/shouldn't be a factor in 21st century politics. 👍
Prior to the advent of Lammy, the Labour Shadow Cabinet looked very, very pale in comparison to the Tory cabinet.
EDIT: I suppose it was the LibDem candidate who really looked like a stereotype. An obvious wealthy incomer to the area, pretending to be all things to everyone.
1 -
Did you hear the story on Today this morning about the Aberdeen daughter of a WWII refugee who has given a home to an Afghan translator's family ?Cyclefree said:Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.
She had nothing good to say about the struggles with the Home Office bureaucracy to be allowed to do so.0 -
It might put Covid into perspective however. Particularly if there was one which compared all cases/hospitalisations/deaths from all diseases. It may prevent the reactions we see now about Covid.MaxPB said:
Nah, I'd rather we didn't have that level of detail on health. This hyperventilation over COVID isn't healthy for anyone and extending it to other diseases would be mentally exhausting for the the nation and give the NHS bods all the ammunition they need to ask for more and more of our incomes.Pulpstar said:0 -
If I had a modest lottery win I'd probably get my loft done, could get the most enormous 6th bedroom out of itMalmesbury said:
It's a feature of shite new builds - enables them to cram more into a smaller footprint.IshmaelZ said:
Yes. my point was more that we don't build like that ab initio. seems such a waste.Malmesbury said:
Have you visited London recently? A house without a loft conversion is now rare - generally means that it is either physically impossible or requires an enormous amount of work to do.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
Outside London (and certain portions of other big cities) there is no particular space problem in existing houses.. Not needed, mind. 0 -
There was a shift in medical thinking in the 80s - stats showed that staying longer in hospital was bad for the patients. With elderly people, the numbers were startling IRRC - stay for a few days more and the chances of become permanently bed ridden soared.Selebian said:
That's quite the stat (halving of beds, increase in treatment). Makes sense though, many more things as day cases, other things in and out much more quickly. Even maternity - when I was born it was usual for the mother and child to have several days in hospital; for our children we had one night in with number 1 (at our choice - we were given the option to leave late at night or in the morning) and were out the same day with number 2. Of course, back then there was no statutory paternity leave, so mothers needed more direct state support, I guess.Pulpstar said:
5.4% ?TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers
The total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2019/20, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare latest number 7,6440 -
It was after conviction. I will excuse them.DavidL said:
I don't think I have ever seen that before. I am not entirely comfortable with it. A jury operates in a quasi judicial capacity and should be impartially and disinterestedly considering the evidence. But if there was ever a case for an exception this was surely it. It must have been harrowing for them.Cyclefree said:Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.
The story on the Head is, sadly, all too typical and an absolute disgrace.
We ask jurors to do a vital job. Sometimes it is an appallingly difficult one. The judge asked the prosecution to consider how much of the footage needed to be seen as the jurors were getting so distressed. I can well believe it. The press reports are bad enough and even journalists had to leave as it was too much.
Whatever other faults there were, lockdown removed what few chances there were for outside authorities to see what was happening.
Sadly, that head will face no consequences for her inadequacies. A disgrace, as you say.3 -
Yes, but Philip's idea of libertarianism stops at things he personally doesn't agree with lol. A genuine libertarian supports a liberal attitude toward things that they do not participate in or might even think are repugnant. Eg. A genuine libertarian might not like game shooting for example, but think that it is not something that government should interfer with. If I remember correctly Philip hates people in the countryside (as he does lots of people he doesn't identify with), so his claims to be "libertarian" (which he often confuses with being "liberal") are a little suspect!Malmesbury said:
A basic principle of libertarianism is that absolute freedom ends where your actions impact on others - "Your freedom to swing your fists ends where my nose begins".TOPPING said:
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.1 -
I did. Kindness to strangers through the generations. Heart-warming.Nigelb said:
Did you hear the story on Today this morning about the Aberdeen daughter of a WWII refugee who has given a home to an Afghan translator's family ?Cyclefree said:Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.
She had nothing good to say about the struggles with the Home Office bureaucracy to be allowed to do so.
My last nanny came from Zimbabwe. She had leave to remain and was marrying a man from Eritrea. The difficulties she had dealing with the Home Office to get permission to marry were unbelievable. I provided some help but even I found my eyes bleeding trying to deal with them. She got her happy ending and they are now married with a little girl. He is an engineer. A delightful couple.2 -
Sadly I've had four stays in the last 10 years or so. Two were for knee surgery, in and out in around 2 to 3 days, once surgery complete and shown to be competent on crutches. Twice during leukeamia treatment, once for best part of 5 weeks, once for 6 days. On every occasion I couldn't get out fast enough.Malmesbury said:
There was a shift in medical thinking in the 80s - stats showed that staying longer in hospital was bad for the patients. With elderly people, the numbers were startling IRRC - stay for a few days more and the chances of become permanently bed ridden soared.Selebian said:
That's quite the stat (halving of beds, increase in treatment). Makes sense though, many more things as day cases, other things in and out much more quickly. Even maternity - when I was born it was usual for the mother and child to have several days in hospital; for our children we had one night in with number 1 (at our choice - we were given the option to leave late at night or in the morning) and were out the same day with number 2. Of course, back then there was no statutory paternity leave, so mothers needed more direct state support, I guess.Pulpstar said:
5.4% ?TOPPING said:
What is the proportion of beds currently occupied by Covid cases.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Lockdown is a restriction of civil liberties, paying taxes is annoying but it isn't.LostPassword said:
I'm personally opposed, but you can make your case.TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
The principle is already established, though. We tax tobacco, sugar and alcohol on the basis of the social and health harms that they cause.
There's no great fundamental point of principle against taxing the choice to refuse the Covid vaccine, with the health consequences that has - provided the tax is not set at a level that is impossible to pay, with an implication of imprisonment for non-payment.
The NHS needs to be funded by taxation and if people go out of their way to increase the burden on the NHS its only fair they pay the taxes to represent their burden.
Why should I be taxed even more or lose my liberties to fund smokers or the unvaccinated?
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers
The total number of NHS hospital beds in England has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2019/20, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare latest number 7,644
I dodged a bullet - the isolation ward I was in for my first round of chemotherapy had Legionnaire's the year after and a patient died.
Hospitals are not great places for the immune compromised...0 -
Those unawed, free press loving judges won’t be the enemies of the people ones presumably.
https://twitter.com/tobyontv/status/1466538483195920384?s=210 -
No, NHS staff were amongst the first eligible. I had mine Sept 21.Malmesbury said:
Lots of younger staff?another_richard said:Can anyone explain why so many in the NHS haven't had their booster dose ?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccinations-
archive/
Just starting to do under 50s.....
Indeed, may need a 4th at some point...
0 -
Some radical green policies are to me a no-brainer, both for Labour and the Lib Dems. The people who'll have an allergic reaction to them were going to vote Tory or REFUK anyway. With green policy you get to be radical without being scary.Gardenwalker said:
I would add;TimS said:OBS I think really showed the difference between the dynamics of a Labour by-election campaign and a Lib Dem one. Labour are the principal opposition. When they are the main challenger in the constituency, people will generally only vote for them if a. they are fed up with the Tories (tick), b. they are positive about the idea of a Labour government.
Given the demographics of OBS there really are very few people likely to be in favour of a Labour national government, and Starmer isn't the type who would appeal (Labour would need more of a cheeky geezer type, ideally with a background in the military or police, a detailed knowledge of football and regular use of the word "mate" to succeed there).
Whereas the Lib Dems are not going to form the next government, so you only need people to be sufficiently pissed off with the Tories to convince them to vote Lib Dem. They don't need to like Ed Davey (or even know who he is).
One thing I think OBS does tell us which is interesting for Labour's electoral strategy: leave voting Tories seem to stay home when not enamoured of the government. If Starmer can manage the following triple strategy he might have a way through:
1. Enthuse supporters enough to land some suburban marginals on the South Coast and metropolitan North
2. Avoid further Tory inroads into the Redwall and Thames Estuary due to leave-voter apathy and low turnout
3. Present a non-frightening prospect to potential Lib Dem voters in the remain shires
4. Mitigate the “Sturgeon’s pocket” meme via a Scottish strategy like the one I outlined above.
5. Ward off Green leakage via a special offer to younger voters.
Also make sure the green policies aren't all just about climate change but include more locally appealing issues too: sewage treatment is an obvious one, habitat restoration and biodiversity, even food and welfare standards - some of which becomes more possible post-Brexit.
On top of this I reckon by then the libertarian back benches may have more control of the Tory party and the "green crap" will be on the backburner, leaving the field open.1 -
England is densely populated, but our cities and towns are low-rise.
It’s bonkers.
London could easily fit several more million by
1. gently densifying Zone 2/3,
2. better configuring poorly designed council housing,
3. building a “garden city” between Stratford and Grays on the north bank.
Requires imagination, strong design rules, and lots of infrastructure.
I’d like to see a new metropolitan park that connects all the way from Victoria Park to Epping.
Then I could cycle up to examine HYUFD’s tanks.3 -
Valerie Pecresse. Just checking her out. Looks like establishment centre right with some 'patriot' stuff tagged on to burnish populist credentials. Hard to see her beating Macron in a run-off since she doesn't appear that different to him. 10/1 shot for POTROF on betfair.Richard_Tyndall said:I see this morning that Barnier's run for President is at an end for this cycle. I think that is a shame. I have a lot of time for him and think he would have been a good President for France.
1 -
I need to go to Speccavers. I glanced at that post and thought it said "Prior to the advent of Lemmy..."YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is a fair comment.Philip_Thompson said:
I love that a successful British-Asian ex-military, doctor, lawyer etc is a cartoonish caricature of the Tory party in your eyes.YBarddCwsc said:Having listened to the videos of the candidates here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59289032
I particularly liked the Labour guy. I just loved it to bits when he said at the end of the video, "We all know this is two horse race between Labour and the Tories in North Shropshire." 😀😀😀
Ah, wonderful, such chutzpah. That is the way to deal with our mendacious "Winning Here" friends.
i don't quite see why Plaid Cymru are not standing in a historic Welsh area, so in the absence of PC I'd vote for Ben Wood. He came across as genuinely likeable. I now suspect he may do enough to keep the Labour vote that the LibDems need to squeeze.
As to the other candidates: The Tory and LibDem candidates look like cartoonish caricatures of the Tory and LibDem party -- they are not for me.
And the Loony is insufficiently bonkers.
That's one thing the Tory party has really improved on in the past generation and is world's apart from the GOP.
Race really isn't/shouldn't be a factor in 21st century politics. 👍
Prior to the advent of Lammy, the Labour Shadow Cabinet looked very, very pale in comparison to the Tory cabinet.
EDIT: I suppose it was the LibDem candidate who really looked like a stereotype. An obvious wealthy incomer to the area, pretending to be all things to everyone.0 -
I’m not convinced that green voters need more green policies, per se, though of course Labour must be credible.TimS said:
Some radical green policies are to me a no-brainer, both for Labour and the Lib Dems. The people who'll have an allergic reaction to them were going to vote Tory or REFUK anyway. With green policy you get to be radical without being scary.Gardenwalker said:
I would add;TimS said:OBS I think really showed the difference between the dynamics of a Labour by-election campaign and a Lib Dem one. Labour are the principal opposition. When they are the main challenger in the constituency, people will generally only vote for them if a. they are fed up with the Tories (tick), b. they are positive about the idea of a Labour government.
Given the demographics of OBS there really are very few people likely to be in favour of a Labour national government, and Starmer isn't the type who would appeal (Labour would need more of a cheeky geezer type, ideally with a background in the military or police, a detailed knowledge of football and regular use of the word "mate" to succeed there).
Whereas the Lib Dems are not going to form the next government, so you only need people to be sufficiently pissed off with the Tories to convince them to vote Lib Dem. They don't need to like Ed Davey (or even know who he is).
One thing I think OBS does tell us which is interesting for Labour's electoral strategy: leave voting Tories seem to stay home when not enamoured of the government. If Starmer can manage the following triple strategy he might have a way through:
1. Enthuse supporters enough to land some suburban marginals on the South Coast and metropolitan North
2. Avoid further Tory inroads into the Redwall and Thames Estuary due to leave-voter apathy and low turnout
3. Present a non-frightening prospect to potential Lib Dem voters in the remain shires
4. Mitigate the “Sturgeon’s pocket” meme via a Scottish strategy like the one I outlined above.
5. Ward off Green leakage via a special offer to younger voters.
Also make sure the green policies aren't all just about climate change but include more locally appealing issues too: sewage treatment is an obvious one, habitat restoration and biodiversity, even food and welfare standards - some of which becomes more possible post-Brexit.
On top of this I reckon by then the libertarian back benches may have more control of the Tory party and the "green crap" will be on the backburner, leaving the field open.
I was thinking of something like student loans, which are totemic.
Edit: I agree with you on nice local green issues. Why are our beaches so filthy? It’s astonishing what British voters put up with.0 -
What if somebody got injured on a plane while breast-feeding a hairless catPhilip_Thompson said:
Anything that is a personal choice and has a significant impact on the NHS it is reasonable to attach a price tag to, like tobacco. That principle is already firmly established and entirely reasonable as part and parcel of owning the consequences of your choices.TOPPING said:
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.
Telling people they can't choose is illiberal. Telling people they're free to choose, but some choices have a price attached to pay for that choice is entirely reasonable.1 -
On Topic.
So only one take out from the by election. Jeremy Corbyn got eleven thousands votes there to make him Prime Minister, Starmer can only get seven thousand in a mid term by election. Only one clear loser if we stick to that fact.
Lib Dem’s should rightly shake head at labour, sigh and say, you badly let your side of the bargain down
1 -
Having "staff" in Scotland I guess used to be somewhat more affordable than the Home Counties perhaps?Carnyx said:
Bit strong - many 'modern' houses don't have dormer windows, eg 1930s bungalows, 1950s-on dets and semis unless converted. But yes, traditionally many Scottish houses have dormers. My family house had three generous bedrooms, one walkin cupboard, and 2 attic storage spaces all in the roof when built in 1880-ish.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.0 -
I don't get the lockdown/social services thing. Even if people are not allowed to leave their homes, Social services simply must carry on in lockdown.1
-
No; it was a shopkeeper's double flat above the shop with only the one servant/housekeeper that I am aware of, who had a bedroom on the first floor next to the kitchen.Nigel_Foremain said:
Having "staff" in Scotland I guess used to be somewhat more affordable than the Home Counties perhaps?Carnyx said:
Bit strong - many 'modern' houses don't have dormer windows, eg 1930s bungalows, 1950s-on dets and semis unless converted. But yes, traditionally many Scottish houses have dormers. My family house had three generous bedrooms, one walkin cupboard, and 2 attic storage spaces all in the roof when built in 1880-ish.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
Edit: in the 1920s-30s (partly due to illness in the family, I believe).0 -
I have never said anything against game shooting. I don't like it, but I don't object to it. I have no problem with people doing things I don't like.Nigel_Foremain said:
Yes, but Philip's idea of libertarianism stops at things he personally doesn't agree with lol. A genuine libertarian supports a liberal attitude toward things that they do not participate in or might even think are repugnant. Eg. A genuine libertarian might not like game shooting for example, but think that it is not something that government should interfer with. If I remember correctly Philip hates people in the countryside (as he does lots of people he doesn't identify with), so his claims to be "libertarian" (which he often confuses with being "liberal") are a little suspect!Malmesbury said:
A basic principle of libertarianism is that absolute freedom ends where your actions impact on others - "Your freedom to swing your fists ends where my nose begins".TOPPING said:
As a libertarian which choices do you think should be taxed and which not taxed. Is there a percentage of NHS or national resources threshold?Philip_Thompson said:
Not really. We have taxes to fund the NHS.TOPPING said:
They are all lifestyle choices. You make a pretty bad libertarian.Philip_Thompson said:
How much of an impact are they putting on the NHS?TOPPING said:
What about a tax on three day eventers, mountaineers, jockeys, Sunday League footballers, parkour-ers, rock climbers, scaffolders, window cleaners, roofers, farmers, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
That's fantastic news and reinforces that we should get our jabs but nothing else, life must go on.MaxPB said:The Lancet paper looks great for AZ primed people! Especially under 70s who got the Moderna booster, massive uplift in t-cell response and antibodies.
Going to check the NHS website a lot this evening as I suspect they'll make the backend changes before the weekend and announce it in a press conference Monday evening. I'm informed that 30+ will become eligible before Xmas but not by a lot. 18+ will be waiting until early January.
Though I would be in favour of a Covid Tax on anyone unvaccinated, just as there's tobacco duty on smokers. 2% extra on income tax, that is zero-rated if you've had your vaccine.
Is Covid closer to smokers or footballers when it comes to impact?
Do you find tobacco duty unconscionable?
My libertarianism is that people should be free to do what they want. If they want to be unvaccinated, that's their choice. If they want to smoke, that's their choice. If they want to take drugs, that's their choice. There still have to be taxes though and some choices, face taxes. Don't want to pay the tax, don't make that choice. Its your freedom to decide.
So are you saying tobacco duty should be abolished?
The principle is shot to pieces regardless.
I don't hate the countryside either. I just don't think we should pander to it.
Some people in the countryside think they deserve major subsidies and tariffs and restrictions on planning in order to protect their way of life. I don't think they deserve any more subsidies or protection than the NUM coal miners did. Let them sink or swim in a free market with free trade and free planning etc
That's not hatred, that's freedom to choose.0 -
Rage, rage against dying of the light.Dura_Ace said:I calculated my VO2max on Zwift yesterday to see if I had symptomless Covid and didn't know it. With 300W power for 6 minutes and weighing 69kg I got 54ml/(kg.min). That's the best I've done in three years so I don't have Covid yet. Remco Evenpoel can do 80+.
It'll almost certainly be the final time my VO2Max is equal to (or greater than) my age.
That’s what PB is largely for.0 -
The issue with making London more densely populated is that we already have too few services and too many people. Adding another 3-4m in zones 3-6 would make London overcrowded.Gardenwalker said:England is densely populated, but our cities and towns are low-rise.
It’s bonkers.
London could easily fit several more million by
1. gently densifying Zone 2/3,
2. better configuring poorly designed council housing,
3. building a “garden city” between Stratford and Grays on the north bank.
Requires imagination, strong design rules, and lots of infrastructure.
I’d like to see a new metropolitan park that connects all the way from Victoria Park to Epping.
Then I could cycle up to examine HYUFD’s tanks.0 -
LOL Sunil!Sunil_Prasannan said:
But a 10% swing replicated nationally wouldn't be too shabby!LostPassword said:
The average swing to Labour in by-elections this Parliament is now 0.4%. This is not currently an election-winning performance.Sunil_Prasannan said:10% swing to Labour
@bigjohnowls please explain
You've been round the block long enough to know that a 10% swing from Con to Lab in a mid-term by election is pretty mediocre.0 -
Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
·
4h
Replying to
@paulmasonnews
4/ I don't doubt Labour mounted a good campaign in OB&S... and the Libdems seem to have demobilised - but that makes the result more telling: Labour under Starmer is nowhere near creating the buzz and momentum needed to form a transformational majority2 -
0
-
Lab did gain that seat in Worthing, so up 17 seats in the last few years and NOC.
Marine (Worthing) by-election result:
LAB: 50.2% (+17.6)
CON: 39.4% (-1.6)
GRN: 5.9% (-3.7)
LDEM: 4.5% (-3.8)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
No UKIP (-8.4) as prev.
Votes cast: 2,4681 -
It was a full gas 10/10 effort to sustain that power. Fucking spewed everywhere at the end. Mrs DA not amused.Theuniondivvie said:
Rage, rage against dying of the light.Dura_Ace said:I calculated my VO2max on Zwift yesterday to see if I had symptomless Covid and didn't know it. With 300W power for 6 minutes and weighing 69kg I got 54ml/(kg.min). That's the best I've done in three years so I don't have Covid yet. Remco Evenpoel can do 80+.
It'll almost certainly be the final time my VO2Max is equal to (or greater than) my age.
That’s what PB is largely for.3 -
On topic. I don’t believe the spin this was a bad one for Reformuk (the muks) they at least had a good one by laying down foundation to now build on? There’s going to be disenchanted Conservatives if the Boris craziness carries on like this, the muks actually made a professional pitch to them: sort the Tory Party and policies out by switching to us.
I think the history of UKIP success more likely to repeat now because it’s proven to work. Do you understand my point? I can try again at explaining it.2 -
Sorry, wasn't referring to you per se, more the large number of huge Victorian mansions that were built in the major cities and conurbations on the profits of the British Empire that Scots folk made such an enthusiastic contribution to.Carnyx said:
No; it was a shopkeeper's double flat above the shop with only the one servant/housekeeper that I am aware of, who had a bedroom on the first floor next to the kitchen.Nigel_Foremain said:
Having "staff" in Scotland I guess used to be somewhat more affordable than the Home Counties perhaps?Carnyx said:
Bit strong - many 'modern' houses don't have dormer windows, eg 1930s bungalows, 1950s-on dets and semis unless converted. But yes, traditionally many Scottish houses have dormers. My family house had three generous bedrooms, one walkin cupboard, and 2 attic storage spaces all in the roof when built in 1880-ish.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
Edit: in the 1920s-30s (partly due to illness in the family, I believe).0 -
The centrist dads appear to believe that this will somehow persuade a chunk of SNP voters ‘back’ to Labour. Mind you they seem to pluck reasons from the air for this to happen on a weekly basis.Carnyx said:
Tory propaganda portraying it as illegitimate for SNP to be involved in a coalition government or c&s. Will not go down well in Scotland.HolesBayView said:
I don't see how that follows.Carnyx said:
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."HolesBayView said:
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.Gardenwalker said:
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.algarkirk said:
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.eek said:
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.Philip_Thompson said:Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.0 -
Dormers also common in farmworkers' cottages.Nigel_Foremain said:
Sorry, wasn't referring to you per se, more the large number of huge Victorian mansions that were built in the major cities and conurbations on the profits of the British Empire that Scots folk made such an enthusiastic contribution to.Carnyx said:
No; it was a shopkeeper's double flat above the shop with only the one servant/housekeeper that I am aware of, who had a bedroom on the first floor next to the kitchen.Nigel_Foremain said:
Having "staff" in Scotland I guess used to be somewhat more affordable than the Home Counties perhaps?Carnyx said:
Bit strong - many 'modern' houses don't have dormer windows, eg 1930s bungalows, 1950s-on dets and semis unless converted. But yes, traditionally many Scottish houses have dormers. My family house had three generous bedrooms, one walkin cupboard, and 2 attic storage spaces all in the roof when built in 1880-ish.IshmaelZ said:
It's a most curious difference between England and Scotland that virtually all Scottish houses and virtually no English ones have dormer windows and utilize attic space as living space. England probably misses out on literally millions of bedrooms.MattW said:
That's an interesting thread about allowing 1.5 storey extensions on houses to help larger families stay in the area. Worth noting that it was not just for the Jewish community - others have similar charas.Gardenwalker said:I often complain about low rise London.
In response to overcrowding in the orthodox jewish community and unsightly extensions, Haringay council came up with an INGENIOUS solution.
https://twitter.com/scp_hughes/status/1466386603878891527?s=21
Sadly the lead councillor has been accused of “beigel barrel” politics by anti-semitic Corbynistas.
https://twitter.com/joedgoldberg/status/1466489312535527431?s=21
It's interesting that they specifically excluded HMOs from doing it, which looks controversial. Surprised that there was not a legal challenge on that.
Edit: in the 1920s-30s (partly due to illness in the family, I believe).0 -
Will the turnout in North Shropshire be higher than OB&S?0
-
He's partially right. Nowhere near a hung Parliament imho.rottenborough said:
Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
·
4h
Replying to
@paulmasonnews
4/ I don't doubt Labour mounted a good campaign in OB&S... and the Libdems seem to have demobilised - but that makes the result more telling: Labour under Starmer is nowhere near creating the buzz and momentum needed to form a transformational majority
Though clambering out of the coffin.0 -
When I am prosecuting now we have a "wonderwall" made up of the faces of 15 jurors all of whom are sitting socially distanced and remotely in a cinema somewhere. Each juror has a camera directly on them so you can actually see a lot more of them than you would in the courtroom. Its a bit weird tbh. I had a rape case recently when I was making the speech and you could read their reactions to what you were saying far more closely than you could if you were speaking to them in a court room.Cyclefree said:
It was after conviction. I will excuse them.DavidL said:
I don't think I have ever seen that before. I am not entirely comfortable with it. A jury operates in a quasi judicial capacity and should be impartially and disinterestedly considering the evidence. But if there was ever a case for an exception this was surely it. It must have been harrowing for them.Cyclefree said:Just leaving this here - https://qz.com/692711/the-radically-simple-way-to-make-female-refugees-safer-from-sexual-assault-decent-bathrooms/.
In unrelated matters, I see that the former Head of Social Services in Solihull in charge when that poor 6-year old boy was tortured to death moved from Stoke where she had been head. A report into the social services department there published just after her departure found it to have "widespread and serious failings". No doubt the same will end up being said of Solihull. Still she is enjoying her retirement while that poor child's body still lies in a morgue, unburied.
It was 12 strangers - the jury - who had the kindness to ask the judge to hold a minute's silence for Arthur at the end of the trial. It is wholly inadequate to the evil we have learnt about but may he rest in peace. And I hope the jurors and others who had to sit through the evidence can find some peace too.
The story on the Head is, sadly, all too typical and an absolute disgrace.
We ask jurors to do a vital job. Sometimes it is an appallingly difficult one. The judge asked the prosecution to consider how much of the footage needed to be seen as the jurors were getting so distressed. I can well believe it. The press reports are bad enough and even journalists had to leave as it was too much.
Whatever other faults there were, lockdown removed what few chances there were for outside authorities to see what was happening.
Sadly, that head will face no consequences for her inadequacies. A disgrace, as you say.
Deciding what should be shown to the jury is problematic. You need to make sure they have seen enough but anything gratuitous is unnecessary and, frankly, an insult to the victim. These are very difficult decisions which thankfully I haven't had to make too often.4 -
Further concentration of the nation's prosperity in London and the South East might not be a good idea. We need new towns or refurbished old towns on a new town model, spread around the country. We could call it levelling up.Gardenwalker said:England is densely populated, but our cities and towns are low-rise.
It’s bonkers.
London could easily fit several more million by
1. gently densifying Zone 2/3,
2. better configuring poorly designed council housing,
3. building a “garden city” between Stratford and Grays on the north bank.
Requires imagination, strong design rules, and lots of infrastructure.
I’d like to see a new metropolitan park that connects all the way from Victoria Park to Epping.
Then I could cycle up to examine HYUFD’s tanks.1 -
Yes. It's becoming Brighton West. Labour now tied with the Cons on 17 each.Foxy said:Lab did gain that seat in Worthing, so up 17 seats in the last few years and NOC.
Marine (Worthing) by-election result:
LAB: 50.2% (+17.6)
CON: 39.4% (-1.6)
GRN: 5.9% (-3.7)
LDEM: 4.5% (-3.8)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
No UKIP (-8.4) as prev.
Votes cast: 2,468
Worth a bob or two for the GE I reckon.0
