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Labour flops in OBS as CON holds with 51.5% of vote – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageLabour flops in OBS as CON holds with 51.5% of vote – politicalbetting.com

So a very comfortable night for the Tories easily holding on in the second Tory by-election defence of this parliament. This is the first hold for the party since Sleaford and North Hykeham almost exactly five years ago.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    OK. Not brilliant for Con by a very long chalk though.
  • The markets got it right. Tory hold with RefUK best of the minor parties.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    OK. Not brilliant for Con by a very long chalk though.

    Not brilliant but good enough to steady backbenchers' nerves, at least for another week.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Con: decent result, seat held with ease despite poor mood music.
    Lab: not great result, but not very fertile territory. Poor, but not disastrous.
    Reform: despite throwing everything at the seat, totally failed to get traction. Very poor result.
    Green: held up well, but small numbers
    LD: poor result, but really only next week's by-election matters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,349
    Better result for the Tories than Labour I think.
    Labour gets the paper LD candidate share but not much more, most people staying at home
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    Makes the Con hold in Shropshire look attractive odds (just put a few pounds on)...
  • More important news is that Ladbrokes and Corals are back on Oddschecker.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    Very disappointing for RefUK.
    If not here and now, then where and when?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085

    Very disappointing for RefUK.
    If not here and now, then where and when?

    Tice certainly lacks the razzamatazz of NF.... surely its time for another comeback?
  • My prediction was rock solid.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    Congratulations to Louie French MP.

    Tice gets his deposit back, unlike the Lib Dems.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,849
    edited December 2021

    Very disappointing for RefUK.
    If not here and now, then where and when?

    Never.

    New political parties are extremely common.
    Breakthrough political parties are extremely rare.

    The only ones that spring to mind are Sinn Féin (1910s), Labour (1924-29) and the Scottish National Party (1970s). Of those, only SF made their breakthrough within a decade of foundation.

    All other parties either evolved slowly over time or broke off from other established parties.

    Note that all three mentioned grew out of very powerful “movements” before they became political parties. Cf contemporary Green parties…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.

    ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    Makes the Con hold in Shropshire look attractive odds (just put a few pounds on)...

    North Shropshire is a likely Con hold. The LDs could win, especially if it's miserable weather and low turnout, and on the ground organisation becomes key. But it's not particularly likely. Ultimately, it's a rural, leave seat, where the LDs have never had any particular presence.

    Con by 15 to 20, and I'd want at least 6-1 to bet on the Libs.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330

    Very disappointing for RefUK.
    If not here and now, then where and when?

    I don't know - he kept his deposit. The function of these parties is to keep the conservative party on track. When Laurence Fox appeared on the scene last year the tories started to row back on cultural issues. So it will be with Tice going on about green stuff. As it was with the Brexit party etc.
  • Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited December 2021
    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Makes the Con hold in Shropshire look attractive odds (just put a few pounds on)...

    North Shropshire is a likely Con hold. The LDs could win, especially if it's miserable weather and low turnout, and on the ground organisation becomes key. But it's not particularly likely. Ultimately, it's a rural, leave seat, where the LDs have never had any particular presence.

    Con by 15 to 20, and I'd want at least 6-1 to bet on the Libs.
    Best NS prices from Oddschecker and subject to revision when people wake up:-
    Conservatives 4/9 Lads & Corals
    Lib Dems 15/8 PP, BV, Bw
  • Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Unpopular said:

    Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?

    A 10 point Con-Lab swing would see a Labour majority.

    And similarly, flying cows would see us all spattered with cowpats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
    https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

    The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
  • ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    How do you reckon you caught it? Given how panic-stricken your recent posts have been I assumed you were being super-cautious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all

    Just this brutal fatigue
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.

    ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine

    Re: the swing to Labour.

    Fair to assume there has been tactical voting. Lib Dems got 8.3% of the vote in 2019 + LP 23.5% = 32% combined

    By Election: 34% combined..

    Does this reveal the true swing?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
    It doesn't, because you still have to read the answers before deciding if they're right or wrong.

    I'm interested to see that even people outside teaching know about the paper setting process for the new GCSE and A-levels though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Hello everybody. Not quite as cold this morning but it looks like a good day for staying indoors.
    IMHO OB&S not a 'good' result for anyone, really, apart perhaps for Reform. 'Satisfactory' for Tories and Labour, does suggest that anti-Tory voters are prepared to get behind the likely winner. Poor turnout, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:

    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Sequencing to some extent, but it also shows up differently in PCR from Delta owing to an S gene deletion. (PCR tests are usually set up to separately detect more than one gene.)
    That alone isn’t diagnostic of Omicron, but it’s a very good proxy for differentiating between the two, as other variants with that characteristic are largely gone for now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all

    Just this brutal fatigue
    You wouldn’t necessarily feel breathless - that’s one of the nasty things about Covid. You can have problems and be unaware of it.
    Get one off Amazon if you can.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Makes the Con hold in Shropshire look attractive odds (just put a few pounds on)...

    North Shropshire is a likely Con hold. The LDs could win, especially if it's miserable weather and low turnout, and on the ground organisation becomes key. But it's not particularly likely. Ultimately, it's a rural, leave seat, where the LDs have never had any particular presence.

    Con by 15 to 20, and I'd want at least 6-1 to bet on the Libs.
    I agree. 1.34 (BF) CP in NS is decent value.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Omicron is easily spotted by PCR tests. America hasn’t seen much of it.

    I hope I’m wrong but we could be in for a perfect winter storm of renewed Delta, followed by Omicron (which busts through prior immunity from infection).

    South Africa just recorded 11,500 cases, doubling in 2 days, and up from 300 in mid November. Much faster than Delta. Hospitalisations are tracking this rise. We dunno about deaths yet but they lag, of course

    We now have enough data to think: Holy Fucking Shit
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Omicron is easily spotted by PCR tests. America hasn’t seen much of it.

    I hope I’m wrong but we could be in for a perfect winter storm of renewed Delta, followed by Omicron (which busts through prior immunity from infection).

    South Africa just recorded 11,500 cases, doubling in 2 days, and up from 300 in mid November. Much faster than Delta. Hospitalisations are tracking this rise. We dunno about deaths yet but they lag, of course

    We now have enough data to think: Holy Fucking Shit
    "Hospitalisations are tracking this rise" - just tracking or is hospitalisation more likely with the new variant? I'd read reports of higher transmissability but lower seriousness. Or do we know yet?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all

    Just this brutal fatigue
    You wouldn’t necessarily feel breathless - that’s one of the nasty things about Covid. You can have problems and be unaware of it.
    Get one off Amazon if you can.
    That is actually a really good idea. We bought a pulse ox device as soon as these instances of people who weren't gasping but had alarmingly low blood oxygen levels started coming to light. They're cheap and effective. Well worth the money.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257

    Very disappointing for RefUK.
    If not here and now, then where and when?

    Hartlepool when they don't get their hospital or even a tory 'hospital' (ie a bus stop in the same street).

    Tice, while undoubtedly a parasitic scumbag richly deserving of brutal mob justice, just isn't memorably objectionable enough. They need a different and more meme-worthy leader.
  • HYUFD said:

    In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.

    ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine

    Boris undoubtedly would say that but you could argue the other way. OB&S is the outlier because it follows the untimely death of a very well liked local MP. Anyway we'll see what happens.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,748
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?

    A 10 point Con-Lab swing would see a Labour majority.

    And similarly, flying cows would see us all spattered with cowpats.
    10.4% swing, subtract 4% for Crosby Swingback, Con 2 seats short of majority:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Or on the new boundaries, Con maj of 10:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Edit: I think I did that slightly wrong but that's the general vibe of it.

    Edit again: Hang on, no, I only did half the swing didn't I
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Omicron is easily spotted by PCR tests. America hasn’t seen much of it.

    I hope I’m wrong but we could be in for a perfect winter storm of renewed Delta, followed by Omicron (which busts through prior immunity from infection).

    South Africa just recorded 11,500 cases, doubling in 2 days, and up from 300 in mid November. Much faster than Delta. Hospitalisations are tracking this rise. We dunno about deaths yet but they lag, of course

    We now have enough data to think: Holy Fucking Shit
    "Hospitalisations are tracking this rise" - just tracking or is hospitalisation more likely with the new variant? I'd read reports of higher transmissability but lower seriousness. Or do we know yet?
    Tracking.


    “NEW: today’s update from Gauteng, now on a log scale to better show current trajectories.

    Steepness of lines shows how much faster the growth in cases and positivity is now vs past waves, and hospital admissions are now steepening too as the acceleration in cases feeds through.”

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769?s=21

    This is bad, I’m afraid.

    Even if Omicron is less severe, it still has a terrible potential to crash health systems, by the sheer number of people it infects.

    However, early indications suggest it might be just as severe as Delta
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all

    Just this brutal fatigue
    You wouldn’t necessarily feel breathless - that’s one of the nasty things about Covid. You can have problems and be unaware of it.
    Get one off Amazon if you can.
    I just had that exact same thought. How would I even know? You give good advice. Just ordered one 👍
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
    It doesn't, because you still have to read the answers before deciding if they're right or wrong.

    I'm interested to see that even people outside teaching know about the paper setting process for the new GCSE and A-levels though.
    Wait.

    Teachers read the shit I submitted as 'homework'?

    Poor bastards.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,664
    Stocky said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Makes the Con hold in Shropshire look attractive odds (just put a few pounds on)...

    North Shropshire is a likely Con hold. The LDs could win, especially if it's miserable weather and low turnout, and on the ground organisation becomes key. But it's not particularly likely. Ultimately, it's a rural, leave seat, where the LDs have never had any particular presence.

    Con by 15 to 20, and I'd want at least 6-1 to bet on the Libs.
    I agree. 1.34 (BF) CP in NS is decent value.
    Just went out to 1.45?! so nabbed a bit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?

    A 10 point Con-Lab swing would see a Labour majority.

    And similarly, flying cows would see us all spattered with cowpats.
    10.4% swing, subtract 4% for Crosby Swingback, Con 2 seats short of majority:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Or on the new boundaries, Con maj of 10:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Edit: I think I did that slightly wrong but that's the general vibe of it.

    Edit again: Hang on, no, I only did half the swing didn't I
    A 9 point UNS is required for a Labour majority of 1.

    Leaving aside the fact that UNS is like a Dawkinsian conception of God* only one leader has managed that since 1945 - Tony Blair in 1997

    And that is because it's much harder to achieve huge swings across 650 seats than across 1.

    *it's a bizarre figure made up to justify some weird contortions of logic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
    It doesn't, because you still have to read the answers before deciding if they're right or wrong.

    I'm interested to see that even people outside teaching know about the paper setting process for the new GCSE and A-levels though.
    Wait.

    Teachers read the shit I submitted as 'homework'?

    Poor bastards.
    It's one reason why we deserve an enormous pay rise.

    Or quit the profession.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
    It doesn't, because you still have to read the answers before deciding if they're right or wrong.

    I'm interested to see that even people outside teaching know about the paper setting process for the new GCSE and A-levels though.
    Wait.

    Teachers read the shit I submitted as 'homework'?

    Poor bastards.
    It's one reason why we deserve an enormous pay rise.

    Or quit the profession.
    There's something worse; Eldest Granddaughter will NEVER mark A level exam papers again apparently. She's moved away from teaching now, though.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,719
    One thing for sure: we can now call time on Tice’s brief, inglorious political career.
  • pigeon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all

    Just this brutal fatigue
    You wouldn’t necessarily feel breathless - that’s one of the nasty things about Covid. You can have problems and be unaware of it.
    Get one off Amazon if you can.
    That is actually a really good idea. We bought a pulse ox device as soon as these instances of people who weren't gasping but had alarmingly low blood oxygen levels started coming to light. They're cheap and effective. Well worth the money.
    During my Delta the periods of greatest fatigue coincided with the lowest sats reading. In my case, the NHS got one to me, I think because I am on the higher risk list as I don't think everyone gets one. I was then monitored remotely by the surgery - they sent me a text every day with a link to a website to enter the figures
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    edited December 2021

    One thing for sure: we can now call time on Tice’s brief, inglorious political career.

    Not so sure about that, TBH. I know the mainstream parties aren't standing in Southend West, but I don't think Reform have said they won't.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,719

    One thing for sure: we can now call time on Tice’s brief, inglorious political career.

    Not so sure about that, TBH. I know the mainstream parties aren't standing in Southend West, but I don't think Reform have said they won't.
    May well stand, but expect a similar result.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,779
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Omicron is easily spotted by PCR tests. America hasn’t seen much of it.

    I hope I’m wrong but we could be in for a perfect winter storm of renewed Delta, followed by Omicron (which busts through prior immunity from infection).

    South Africa just recorded 11,500 cases, doubling in 2 days, and up from 300 in mid November. Much faster than Delta. Hospitalisations are tracking this rise. We dunno about deaths yet but they lag, of course

    We now have enough data to think: Holy Fucking Shit
    "Hospitalisations are tracking this rise" - just tracking or is hospitalisation more likely with the new variant? I'd read reports of higher transmissability but lower seriousness. Or do we know yet?
    Tracking.


    “NEW: today’s update from Gauteng, now on a log scale to better show current trajectories.

    Steepness of lines shows how much faster the growth in cases and positivity is now vs past waves, and hospital admissions are now steepening too as the acceleration in cases feeds through.”

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769?s=21

    This is bad, I’m afraid.

    Even if Omicron is less severe, it still has a terrible potential to crash health systems, by the sheer number of people it infects.

    However, early indications suggest it might be just as severe as Delta
    It's worth bearing in mind that if the apparent overall severity were the same, and if for Omicron a larger proportion of those infected were vaccinated, then - assuming that vaccination still gave some protection - the intrinsic severity would be greater. For example, the severity among the unvaccinated.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Nigelb said:

    Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
    https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

    The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).

    Jesus. That’s one depressing thread

    At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.

    Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again

  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    From my sickbed I also spotted this:


    “BREAKING: U.S. reports 139,424 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since September”

    https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1466590184984780803?s=21

    This is BEFORE Omicron. With reports that Omicron easily breaks through prior immunity we could be in for the worst wave of Covid yet.

    How do you know that’s before Omicron? It may be the first sign of it.
    Omicron is easily spotted by PCR tests. America hasn’t seen much of it.

    I hope I’m wrong but we could be in for a perfect winter storm of renewed Delta, followed by Omicron (which busts through prior immunity from infection).

    South Africa just recorded 11,500 cases, doubling in 2 days, and up from 300 in mid November. Much faster than Delta. Hospitalisations are tracking this rise. We dunno about deaths yet but they lag, of course

    We now have enough data to think: Holy Fucking Shit
    "Hospitalisations are tracking this rise" - just tracking or is hospitalisation more likely with the new variant? I'd read reports of higher transmissability but lower seriousness. Or do we know yet?
    Tracking.


    “NEW: today’s update from Gauteng, now on a log scale to better show current trajectories.

    Steepness of lines shows how much faster the growth in cases and positivity is now vs past waves, and hospital admissions are now steepening too as the acceleration in cases feeds through.”

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769?s=21

    This is bad, I’m afraid.

    Even if Omicron is less severe, it still has a terrible potential to crash health systems, by the sheer number of people it infects.

    However, early indications suggest it might be just as severe as Delta
    It's worth bearing in mind that if the apparent overall severity were the same, and if for Omicron a larger proportion of those infected were vaccinated, then - assuming that vaccination still gave some protection - the intrinsic severity would be greater. For example, the severity among the unvaccinated.

    Yes, good point.

    The immediate outlook is not brilliant
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?

    A 10 point Con-Lab swing would see a Labour majority.

    And similarly, flying cows would see us all spattered with cowpats.
    10.4% swing, subtract 4% for Crosby Swingback, Con 2 seats short of majority:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Or on the new boundaries, Con maj of 10:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Edit: I think I did that slightly wrong but that's the general vibe of it.

    Edit again: Hang on, no, I only did half the swing didn't I
    A 9 point UNS is required for a Labour majority of 1.

    Leaving aside the fact that UNS is like a Dawkinsian conception of God* only one leader has managed that since 1945 - Tony Blair in 1997

    And that is because it's much harder to achieve huge swings across 650 seats than across 1.

    *it's a bizarre figure made up to justify some weird contortions of logic.
    Politically the necessary swing needed is nothing to do with a Labour majority - which isn't going to happen, or at least has a lower than 5% chance of happening (if this were wrong the OB&B result would have been something other than predictable and dull) but what is necessary for the Tories to lose enough seats that they can no longer govern, and ditto what is necessary for Labour to lead a sustainable rainbow alliance.

    The Lab majority requires Attlee/Blair to lead the Labour party, the alliance option second is a 40%+ chance and could happen if there were a GE tomorrow; also there is quite a range of realistic results which lead to no coherent government.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    Much like the locals earlier in the year, it seems there's something for everyone here. CON hold, obviously, with a decent but not devastating Labour swing and some tentative signs of an effective anti-tory coalition. Nothing decisive, but then it is a December by-election in a safe seat. Boris will be relieved, and Starmer can take some comfort.

    It might be a very naughty thing to ask, but if this kind of swing were replicated at a GE what would we be looking at?

    A 10 point Con-Lab swing would see a Labour majority.

    And similarly, flying cows would see us all spattered with cowpats.
    10.4% swing, subtract 4% for Crosby Swingback, Con 2 seats short of majority:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base

    Or on the new boundaries, Con maj of 10:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=41.6&LAB=36.1&LIB=11.8&Reform=2.1&Green=2.8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20.5&SCOTLAB=19&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=1.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase

    Edit: I think I did that slightly wrong but that's the general vibe of it.

    Edit again: Hang on, no, I only did half the swing didn't I
    A 9 point UNS is required for a Labour majority of 1.

    Leaving aside the fact that UNS is like a Dawkinsian conception of God* only one leader has managed that since 1945 - Tony Blair in 1997

    And that is because it's much harder to achieve huge swings across 650 seats than across 1.

    *it's a bizarre figure made up to justify some weird contortions of logic.
    I prefer Dawkinsite, as it reminds me of an ET from early-ish Asimov called a Hawkinsite which had to carry a bottle of Cyanide gas around to breathe, as that was the atmosphere on its home planet.

    Morning all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
    I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO


    Partly because you get a full whack of Mo

    But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    Do you get one of those with a blood pressure meter?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    rcs1000 said:
    Dear me. If they're like that on Delta, what will they be like when Omicron really gets going?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    edited December 2021
    Interesting now there is the counter factual in Europe on removal of civil liberties on the unvaccinated rather than for all. Seems a no brainer to me, hopefully Bozza isn’t too lily livered with his “we’re all in this together” mindset to do the same if it comes to it. The data does seem to be leaning pretty strongly that way (ie. high breakthrough for natural immunity, low for up to date vaxxed).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Have you got an oximeter ?
    Do you get one of those with a blood pressure meter?
    No. Unless someone is doing a deal.
  • Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Dear me. If they're like that on Delta, what will they be like when Omicron really gets going?
    Hmmm.

    Sounds a difficult issue to deal with. Hate to think how many "Rights" organisations will get involved.

    Are animals allowed loose on flights?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321

    The markets got it right. Tory hold with RefUK best of the minor parties.

    But nowhere near the 20% some here were predicting!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257
    I calculated my VO2max on Zwift yesterday to see if I had symptomless Covid and didn't know it. With 300W power for 6 minutes and weighing 69kg I got 54ml/(kg.min). That's the best I've done in three years so I don't have Covid yet. Remco Evenpoel can do 80+.

    It'll almost certainly be the final time my VO2Max is equal to (or greater than) my age.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 26,108
    Just checked and, according to Wikipedia, ReformUK will NOT be standing in Southend West.
  • Is it only me, but I keep reading Omicron as 0 micron. As in zero microns.

    Its hard to take something named so tiny seriously.

    (PS yes I know covid genuinely is smaller than a micron)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
    I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO


    Partly because you get a full whack of Mo

    But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
    According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
    I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO


    Partly because you get a full whack of Mo

    But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
    According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
    My vaccinator told me mine was a full whack. Interesting. Perhaps they are now rationing to get as many boosters done as possible before Omicron hits?

    Makes sense if they are. We are in (yet another) race
  • IshmaelZ said:

    OK. Not brilliant for Con by a very long chalk though.

    I think it's a pretty solid hold.

    Tory vote share above 50%. More votes than Labour received at 2019 GE. Less than 1,500 votes for Tice.

    Sure, it's not Hartlepool-style brilliant, but there's nothing there to concern them particularly.
  • rcs1000 said:
    The lady in 13A wants to breastfeed her hairless cat, she's not harming anybody, just leave her alone. WTF is wrong with people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer

    The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn

    You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
    Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
    Hope you improve a bit soon.

    I’m feeling very unwell too, but that’s not a virus that’s just the amount of marking I’ve had to do in the last week.
    If you always set the same questions, you will create a black market in tests, which will mean the kids will get all the answers right and save you hours of marking. Thank me later. (Apparently a science teacher at my old school did this in the dim and distant past.) You can also double as an economics or business studies teacher.
    It doesn't, because you still have to read the answers before deciding if they're right or wrong.

    I'm interested to see that even people outside teaching know about the paper setting process for the new GCSE and A-levels though.
    Wait.

    Teachers read the shit I submitted as 'homework'?

    Poor bastards.
    Those Radiohead essays ...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
    I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO


    Partly because you get a full whack of Mo

    But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
    According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
    I wonder how the "use less paper" Green KPI is coming along this year in the NHS :smile:
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    eek said:

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
    Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.

    Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.

    ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.

    If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Leon said:

    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?

    One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
  • HYUFD said:

    In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.

    ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine

    Sound analysis, and good prediction.

    This is a tremendous result for Boris Johnson. Less good for his party, and appalling for the country.

    The next GE looks sewn up, unless BJ has another few Peppa Pig moments. His advisors really ought to lock him in a broom cupboard for a couple of years.

    ReformUK effectively dead men walking.

    LDs still a total joke.

    Labour really need to find some traction and some fire in their bellies. They just look so peely wallie.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    Leon said:

    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?

    There was a cartoon in a mainstream UK publication, possibly Punch, in the early days of AIDS, of God addressing a cabinet meeting of angels and saying "OK that's fixed the queers, let's move on to estate agents." One point being it's genuinely shocking to think anyone ever thought that was permissible, the other that this looks very like a Let's move on to anti vaxxers variant. I imagine it could in principle have been the other way round- prior infection effective, vax not - which would have given them a terrific boost.
  • algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
    Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.

    Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.

    ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.

    If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.

    He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:

    1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before
    2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
    Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.

    Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.

    ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.

    If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.

    Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.

    Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.

    Con 48%
    Libs 42%
    Lab 2%
    Green 3%
    Others 5%

    Turnout 43%
  • Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
    https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

    The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).

    Jesus. That’s one depressing thread

    At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.

    Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again

    If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    pigeon said:

    So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.

    Meanwhile...

    The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.

    The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.

    All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.

    Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

    I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.

    As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.

    Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.

    No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.

    Does anyone know?
    I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO


    Partly because you get a full whack of Mo

    But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
    According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
    Which is fine.
    The original Moderna dose is around double that of Pfizer.
    They also tested half dose boosters of Pfizer - and the effect was close to that of the full dose. Which is very goood news in terms of a worldwide booster program.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?

    One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
    It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections


    We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
  • eek said:

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
    Aside from all the ones who refused to vote for anyone. Ok so it's a by-election and turnout is always lower, but as I keep saying the Tories are screwed if even a moderate proportion of their 2019 vote decides to abstain next time.
  • .

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.

    But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.

    Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.

    Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
    Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.

    Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.

    ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.

    If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.

    He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:

    1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before
    2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
    He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.

    Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?

    One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
    It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections


    We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
    I’m wary of SA anecdata. Some are implying that everyone in as has had Covid, but I recall such claims have been made before, and been wildly wrong. Antibody testing is the only true test.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,235
    IshmaelZ said:
    Decent spin, tbh.
    In reality, disappointing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,331

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
    https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

    The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).

    Jesus. That’s one depressing thread

    At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.

    Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again

    If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
    Too late for that to make much difference to the current wave, in all likelihood.
    A crash program to increase production of the Pfizer antiviral might help.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,612
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks

    It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely

    Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink

    Will lockdowns even work against this variant?

    There was a cartoon in a mainstream UK publication, possibly Punch, in the early days of AIDS, of God addressing a cabinet meeting of angels and saying "OK that's fixed the queers, let's move on to estate agents." One point being it's genuinely shocking to think anyone ever thought that was permissible, the other that this looks very like a Let's move on to anti vaxxers variant. I imagine it could in principle have been the other way round- prior infection effective, vax not - which would have given them a terrific boost.
    When AIDS became red hot news homosexual practice had been a crime during the formative years of the overwhelming majority of adults, and its decriminalising was seen by most as just that - something which allowed something which was socially not great and sub optimal but shouldn't be a crime. Like how many PBers including me feel about drug legalisation now. The mid 1980's is, culturally, a foreign country, where they do things differently. Hence the cartoon.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited December 2021

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thread with some informed guesses on Omicron immune evasion and infectivity. Neither good news.
    https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1466501989500653568

    The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).

    Jesus. That’s one depressing thread

    At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.

    Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again

    If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
    That’s his conclusion. He says in the face of Omicron a booster today gives you as much protection as a 2nd jab 6 months ago v delta

    Still definitely worth having but not the cure-all we hoped

    So we will need tweaked vaccines and continuously improved therapies (and they are improving all the time). But we’re looking at a rough winter until then

    Ugh I feel shit. Time for tablets
This discussion has been closed.