Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48% Libs 42% Lab 2% Green 3% Others 5%
Turnout 43%
About correct IMHO.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Lab spin is this swing would see Johnson personally unseated
Decent spin, tbh. In reality, disappointing.
I've already posted that winning NS would be a bonus for the libdems - a strong swing is all they need to show.
A 10% swing Con to Lab. Likely a bigger swing Con to LD. Tie them together with tactical voting on a large scale and the government are in trouble.
As always, sweep the hubris and spin aside and look at the numbers. Maths doesn't care which party you support.
By-election swings don’t correlate to GE ones so well, I would have thought.
By-elections are more about building the narrative, I think. And this morning the narrative is that Labour haven’t made much of a dent on the Tories in an admittedly very unfavourable seat.
The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer
The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn
You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
Have you got an oximeter ?
No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all
Just this brutal fatigue
The dangerous thing about covid is silent hypoxia, where people can have really low oxygen yet don't feel very breathless.
Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks
It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely
Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink
Will lockdowns even work against this variant?
One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections
We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
I’m wary of SA anecdata. Some are implying that everyone in as has had Covid, but I recall such claims have been made before, and been wildly wrong. Antibody testing is the only true test.
Other point is ZA has had 0.4% of the population die of covid by excess death calculations. Which means the virus has already had the low hanging fruit. Hence if lethality looks the same there as with Delta that likely means it will be higher here because we have saved more of the elderly and comorbid
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Biden was against Trump.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48% Libs 42% Lab 2% Green 3% Others 5%
Turnout 43%
About correct IMHO.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
Yes. I had Refuk at 10 and they couldn’t even get that. I do find their GE polling totally mysterious.
The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer
The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn
You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
Have you got an oximeter ?
No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all
Just this brutal fatigue
The dangerous thing about covid is silent hypoxia, where people can have really low oxygen yet don't feel very breathless.
Yes I have now ordered an oximeter. I was being complacent. Thankyou
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
I think this underestimates the strength of the Tory position.
In 1979-1983, there were 7 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 4/7. They win the next general election comfortably.
In 1983-1987, there were 9 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 5/9. They win the next general election comfortably.
In 1987-1992, there were 10 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 7/10. They win the next general election by a squeak.
in 1992-1997, there were 8 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 8/8. They lose the next general election.
In 2010-2015, there were 4 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 1/4. They win the next general election.
I'd say the byelection loss rate has to exceed 70 per cent before the Tories have serious worries about the next general election.
Lab spin is this swing would see Johnson personally unseated
Decent spin, tbh. In reality, disappointing.
I've already posted that winning NS would be a bonus for the libdems - a strong swing is all they need to show.
A 10% swing Con to Lab. Likely a bigger swing Con to LD. Tie them together with tactical voting on a large scale and the government are in trouble.
As always, sweep the hubris and spin aside and look at the numbers. Maths doesn't care which party you support.
By-election swings don’t correlate to GE ones so well, I would have thought.
By-elections are more about building the narrative, I think. And this morning the narrative is that Labour haven’t made much of a dent on the Tories in an admittedly very unfavourable seat.
In 1997 Labour came within 3,500 votes and 7 pp of a Tory candidate called Edward Heath (who he?) on OB&S on a 75% turnout. I think Labour will want to have done a little better here.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Biden was against Trump.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Biden was against Trump.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
Since Boris is a very successful politician Trump may have wanted to jump on Johnson's coattails but the similarities between them were threadbare unlike those between Corbyn and Trump as Cyclefree's excellent article makes clear.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Zuckerberg's money would be much less effective in a UK GE, though.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Biden was against Trump.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
Pace @Cyclefree, it is Boris who is Britain's closest equivalent to Trump. A self-centred, ideology-free, pathological bullshitter. Starmer needs to nail Boris for lies and corruption. Trouble is, even if Starmer is up to it, I still can't see Boris hanging around till the next election and the blue team will reinvent itself under yet another new leader.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
What struck me was the way he completely vindicated that infamous early graph by a Saffer epidemiologist giving Omicron a 500% transmission advantage over Delta. At the time (barely a week ago? Less?) everyone laughed and dismissed it as some mad guy scare-mongering. Now it looks quite prescient
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Biden was against Trump.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
Pace @Cyclefree, it is Boris who is Britain's closest equivalent to Trump. A self-centred, ideology-free, pathological bullshitter. Starmer needs to nail Boris for lies and corruption. Trouble is, even if Starmer is up to it, I still can't see Boris hanging around till the next election and the blue team will reinvent itself under yet another new leader.
So SKS's correct strategy is to leave Mr Johnson in place while stirring up the manure to maintain the faecal reek of corruption?
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
A third of over 12s have already had their booster and its going at about a third to half a million more people per day.
Its going down in age bands so if you're in 40s need to wait for those older to have theirs first still. Just like the original rollout.
Sure. But given Omicron, and how wide Javid’s eyes were, I was expecting a larger mobilisation.
In fact, nothing’s changed since before Omicron’s discovery.
I think the mobilisation was already running at capacity, and if they're going to build more capacity it'll probably take more than 72 hours to do so.
But what's changed is they've made it explicit that everyone is going to be eligible to get the booster, but quite rightly without bumping us ahead of the queue before older people have been done yet.
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
It's guesstimates, but probably not wildly wrong on infectivity - plenty of anecdotes of triple vaxxed people getting Omicron. There's no real hard data yet on how serious it is for any given cohort. AZN ought to have some very good data on their vaccine within a few weeks, since they ran a clinical trial in SA.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
I don't think that's clear at all. Trump got strong turnout and was particularly popular in the mid-west where there were a lot of swing states up for grabs, which is why a fairly comfortable popular vote lead (51.3% to 46.9%) only barely got Biden over the line in the easiest must-win state. It's not at all clear that a different GOP candidate could have done the same.
The Tories have a similar problem: They can keep Boris and run on entertaining patriotic chaos, but the risk is that the voters will be sick of that by then and pick someone who just looks like they can do the job without bollocksing it up or stealing too much. Or they can replace Boris, but it's not really clear whether the replacement will be able to reach the parts he could.
I wouldn't personally have picked the Starmer strategy (I voted for Nandy, I think it helps to be a bit spikier these days) but it's definitely a strategy.
The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer
The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn
You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
Have you got an oximeter ?
No oximeter. But I don’t feel breathless at all
Just this brutal fatigue
The dangerous thing about covid is silent hypoxia, where people can have really low oxygen yet don't feel very breathless.
Yes I have now ordered an oximeter. I was being complacent. Thankyou
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
Large centres at off peak times probably your best bet, then. And there ought to be some sign of the ramp up within that time. Good luck.
Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks
It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely
Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink
Will lockdowns even work against this variant?
One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections
We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
The point is that any difference in severity (unless it's hugely more severe, which I think we can already see it's not) is a one-off difference in terms of its influence on hospitalisations and deaths. (Though it's obviously something that we very much want to know as individuals in order to assess our personal risk.)
The overall difference in transmissibility is something whose effect on the numbers of infections will compound every generation - that is, roughly every 5 days.
The difference in transmissibility is going to be the crucial factor in influencing the impact on the health service, and that is what we already have a much better handle on. Even for the UK, unless there's an alternative explanation, the S-gene dropout data are indicating a big advantage in transmissibility over Delta.
We need to have a way of coping with a variant that is much more transmissible than Delta overall (taking both intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape into account). And also taking account of the fact that it's already here, apparently in significant numbers.
So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.
Meanwhile...
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.
The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.
All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.
Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.
I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.
As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.
Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.
No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.
Does anyone know?
I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO
Partly because you get a full whack of Mo
But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
My vaccinator told me mine was a full whack. Interesting. Perhaps they are now rationing to get as many boosters done as possible before Omicron hits?
Makes sense if they are. We are in (yet another) race
It's in the national NHS leaflet we should all have been given, "Your guide to booster vaccination". Inside it says "studies have shown that you only need a half dose of Moderna to boost the immune system well. This half dose of Moderna is expected to have low rate of side effects including myocarditis."
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
I wasn't specifically asked the date of my 2nd dose when getting walk in booster BUT I gave my name dob and NHS number and got IDed off a computer which probably told them the date.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."
Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks
It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely
Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink
Will lockdowns even work against this variant?
One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections
We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
The point is that any difference in severity (unless it's hugely more severe, which I think we can already see it's not) is a one-off difference in terms of its influence on hospitalisations and deaths. (Though it's obviously something that we very much want to know as individuals in order to assess our personal risk.)
The overall difference in transmissibility is something whose effect on the numbers of infections will compound every generation - that is, roughly every 5 days.
The difference in transmissibility is going to be the crucial factor in influencing the impact on the health service, and that is what we already have a much better handle on. Even for the UK, unless there's an alternative explanation, the S-gene dropout data are indicating a big advantage in transmissibility over Delta.
We need to have a way of coping with a variant that is much more transmissible than Delta overall (taking both intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape into account). And also taking account of the fact that it's already here, apparently in significant numbers.
We have a way of coping. Get vaccinated, get boosters and cope as well as we can.
Not everyone will survive but that's a fact of life, stop being hysterical about it.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."
I don't see how that follows.
Tory propaganda portraying it as illegitimate for SNP to be involved in a coalition government or c&s. Will not go down well in Scotland.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
Large centres at off peak times probably your best bet, then. And there ought to be some sign of the ramp up within that time. Good luck.
At my centre yesterday they had signs up saying "booked appointments only", but I heard them letting a few walk-ins into the queue if they were otherwise eligible but applying a strict six month since the second vaccination criterion, provided they were willing to be bumped into waiting longer if they were behind schedule inside. I also heard one person turn up who was unvaccinated and they let her in to have her first.
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
It's guesstimates, but probably not wildly wrong on infectivity - plenty of anecdotes of triple vaxxed people getting Omicron. There's no real hard data yet on how serious it is for any given cohort. AZN ought to have some very good data on their vaccine within a few weeks, since they ran a clinical trial in SA.
One interesting positive fact I had missed is that according to the Omicron round-up in Nature last night, there was a "real-world" evaluation of the efficacy of AstraZeneca against hospitalisation caused by the Beta (South African) variant, which came out at >80%.
That was despite the initial AstraZeneca trial in South Africa having shown no significant efficacy against infection, evidently owing to immune escape (though the lack of significance was probably due to the smallness of the trial).
Apparently Omicron is a descendant of Alpha rather than Beta, but the suggestion is that we may see something similar for Omicron in relation to vaccines in general.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Zuckerberg's money would be much less effective in a UK GE, though.
Money wasn't the deciding factor in that election at all, both sides had way more than they could usefully spend.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
Large centres at off peak times probably your best bet, then. And there ought to be some sign of the ramp up within that time. Good luck.
At my centre yesterday they had signs up saying "booked appointments only", but I heard them letting a few walk-ins into the queue if they were otherwise eligible but applying a strict six month since the second vaccination criterion, provided they were willing to be bumped into waiting longer if they were behind schedule inside. I also heard one person turn up who was unvaccinated and they let her in to have her first.
At my centre on Monday they had one queue for those with appointments and one for those without. I don't know what criteria they were applying to those without.
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
What struck me was the way he completely vindicated that infamous early graph by a Saffer epidemiologist giving Omicron a 500% transmission advantage over Delta. At the time (barely a week ago? Less?) everyone laughed and dismissed it as some mad guy scare-mongering. Now it looks quite prescient
I feel like heading back under the duvet to be honest.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48% Libs 42% Lab 2% Green 3% Others 5%
Turnout 43%
About correct IMHO.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
I did point this out at the weekend, but HY insisted he was about to do very well. All of us forget how little attention most people are paying all this stuff.
The Tories remain the default govt in England. Still a long hard road for Starmer
The really impressive breakthrough into nowhere is by Rejoin EU, with 0.69% of the vote. That’s a movement on the march. By the General Election of 2068 I can see them threatening in some more Remainery constituencies in the southwest especially as by then we will all be cyber-organic flesh-bots living in tungsten podules orbiting Saturn
You still dying? I'm hoping for a phone consultation with the quack.
Dunno about dying. Hopefully not. Still feel quite shit tho. Really quite shit.
Have you got an oximeter ?
Do you get one of those with a blood pressure meter?
A number of sports watches have both blood pressure measurement and an oximeter built in. Oximeter alone is more common....
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."
I don't see how that follows.
Tory propaganda portraying it as illegitimate for SNP to be involved in a coalition government or c&s. Will not go down well in Scotland.
That's not what the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters are about, but I'm sure you actually know that.
Interesting to speculate what a highly transmissible, highly reinfective Omicron might do to the world. It will surely sweep through every continent in months if not weeks
It will mightily impact unvaxxed countries but it won’t be great for vaxxed, unless they have brilliant booster campaigns and they can somehow protect the unjabbed entirely
Anyone who thinks they are immune due to prior infection must now rethink
Will lockdowns even work against this variant?
One thing to remember (learn?) is that reinfections tend to be milder, and this will likely be the case here too.
It’s too early to say for sure, but the steep rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng suggests otherwise. It is thought many of them are reinfections
We just don’t know for certain. Every day tells us more. In 2-3 weeks we will get the first Omicron deaths. Perhaps it will be more transmissible and reinfective but less lethal? 🙏
The point is that any difference in severity (unless it's hugely more severe, which I think we can already see it's not) is a one-off difference in terms of its influence on hospitalisations and deaths. (Though it's obviously something that we very much want to know as individuals in order to assess our personal risk.)
The overall difference in transmissibility is something whose effect on the numbers of infections will compound every generation - that is, roughly every 5 days.
The difference in transmissibility is going to be the crucial factor in influencing the impact on the health service, and that is what we already have a much better handle on. Even for the UK, unless there's an alternative explanation, the S-gene dropout data are indicating a big advantage in transmissibility over Delta.
We need to have a way of coping with a variant that is much more transmissible than Delta overall (taking both intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape into account). And also taking account of the fact that it's already here, apparently in significant numbers.
We have a way of coping. Get vaccinated, get boosters and cope as well as we can.
Not everyone will survive but that's a fact of life, stop being hysterical about it.
I'm stating facts and what follows logically from them. Apparently you think we need to do no more than vaccinate. If so, I don't believe you have thought out the consequences.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Zuckerberg's money would be much less effective in a UK GE, though.
Money wasn't the deciding factor in that election at all, both sides had way more than they could usefully spend.
Zuckerberg directly funded election administration in Dem areas.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
Large centres at off peak times probably your best bet, then. And there ought to be some sign of the ramp up within that time. Good luck.
I was told my local walk in (town) centre's quietest time was Sunday afternoon.
Con hold against a swing of 10.3% – very much par for the course between a governing and main opposition party in a by-election. Not a particularly remarkable result!...
In fact, I think the best way to sum up this result is that it’s about the sort of by-election swing that Ed Miliband was getting from David Cameron
The unknown at this point is how it compares in disease severity, and how protective are vaccines and/or prior infection in this respect (they do not seem to be greatly so against infection).
Jesus. That’s one depressing thread
At one point he speculates that Omicron might have an R of 40, making it the most infectious disease in the history of the universe, but then he falls back on the (much more likely) answer that it is simultaneously more transmissible (4-6 x Delta?) PLUS it is highly reinfective.
Basically, the virus ran out of people to infect, for the first time, in SA, so it learned how to come back and duff them up all over again
If that's the case then the booster isn't going to cut it - we need a new vaccine...
That was indeed a bleak thread.
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
What struck me was the way he completely vindicated that infamous early graph by a Saffer epidemiologist giving Omicron a 500% transmission advantage over Delta. At the time (barely a week ago? Less?) everyone laughed and dismissed it as some mad guy scare-mongering. Now it looks quite prescient
I feel like heading back under the duvet to be honest.
I’ve been under a duvet for 48 hours anyway, but yeah. Bleak. Definitely the bleakest moment since the onset of Delta
I don’t see how we escape a horrible winter, now, with associated lockdowns. Unless Omicron rips through so fast it doesn’t matter
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48% Libs 42% Lab 2% Green 3% Others 5%
Turnout 43%
About correct IMHO.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
I did point this out at the weekend, but HY insisted he was about to do very well. All of us forget how little attention most people are paying all this stuff.
It really is quite hard to make a case for REFUK. Being beatly to foreigners and complacent about covid are government policies already. What is the point?
In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.
ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine
Boris undoubtedly would say that but you could argue the other way. OB&S is the outlier because it follows the untimely death of a very well liked local MP. Anyway we'll see what happens.
FWIW it's not correct that it's not high enough for Labour to win a GE. If the Conservative to Labour swing in Old Bexley & Sidcup swing was repeated nationally, Labour would win 322 seats including Boris Johnson's: www.yapms.com/app/?m=dat1 As has been said downthread, this is Labour spin, just as HYUFD's post is Tory spin, but in reality both are roughly true - it's not a result that will worry Johnson especially, but a 10% swing in a demographic of Leave-voting owner-occupiers isn't bad for Labour.
Does anyone have the Worthing result, by the way? That's one that Labour did expect to win and if they did then the majority on the council changes to NOC. Labour never had any councillors in Worthing at all until I think 1992, but are on course to take control next May.
A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup. If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.
At my centre yesterday they had signs up saying "booked appointments only", but I heard them letting a few walk-ins into the queue if they were otherwise eligible but applying a strict six month since the second vaccination criterion, provided they were willing to be bumped into waiting longer if they were behind schedule inside.
A friend of mine was let in for a booster before his 6mo date, but he was only early by one day. At least around here the current provision is clearly completely filled up by the current 6mo+40-or-older criteria, so I don't suppose they're likely to relax them until they've managed to ramp up the provisioning a bit.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
That probably is his strategy but Starmer’s fundamental flaw is he thinks the issue with the Red Wall voters is Brexit when actually it is more a wider, socially conservative issue of which Brexit is just one manifestation. So it is likely those voters will come out and vote - not because they love BJ but because their view on anyone non-Labour is that they will favour minority groups over the WWC.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
That probably is his strategy but Starmer’s fundamental flaw is he thinks the issue with the Red Wall voters is Brexit when actually it is more a wider, socially conservative issue of which Brexit is just one manifestation. So it is likely those voters will come out and vote - not because they love BJ but because their view on anyone non-Labour is that they will favour minority groups over the WWC.
A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup. If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.
Lancet study of boosters published yesterday. Pre-omocron but finds good T cell boosting effects which apparently is grounds for optimism
R5 had this on this this morning. Although no specific data for omicron, the scientist was very upbeat about how the vaccines would cope, especially after being boosted. Don't forget, we've already boosted 18 million, and mainly the most vulnerable. I think we are going to see more cases, that seems inevitable now, but the impact on severe disease, hospitalisation and death may well be much more muted.
This cat breast-feeding thing has got me thinking about how weird it is that humans drink cow's and sheep's milk.
Well, that is weird, because we had to evolve the ability to digest it.
The crucial point in the story about the "breastfed cat" is that the cat didn't want to latch on and was distressed about the way it was swaddled. I don't know what the story is with the cat owner, but if it were in the UK I imagine the RSPCA would now be involved.
A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup. If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.
Disappointing result in OB&S. Labour did a bit worse than I expected (but was in the 30-35% range I had thought). The surprise was Reform, which I thought would pick up a lot of disgruntled Tories upset at all the Johnson missteps especially as their leader was standing and they seem to have had an ambitious ground effort. I thought they could get 20% of the vote, that 7% is a very poor showing and I think will be a source of much Tory relief. I still think the Lib Dems should be narrow favourites in NS given those polling numbers OGH mentioned in a previous thread.
So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.
Meanwhile...
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.
The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.
All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.
Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.
I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.
As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.
Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.
No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.
Does anyone know?
I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO
Partly because you get a full whack of Mo
But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
I wonder how the "use less paper" Green KPI is coming along this year in the NHS
I'm quite sure there is a 500 page report on that somewhere. Not sure how you get a copy - will be physical only.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h With the Lib Dems quietly confident of pulling off "another Amersham" in North Shropshire, @BorisJohnson is facing a pincer movement from left and right (with different pincers in different seats)
This cat breast-feeding thing has got me thinking about how weird it is that humans drink cow's and sheep's milk.
Well, that is weird, because we had to evolve the ability to digest it.
The crucial point in the story about the "breastfed cat" is that the cat didn't want to latch on and was distressed about the way it was swaddled. I don't know what the story is with the cat owner, but if it were in the UK I imagine the RSPCA would now be involved.
Ok, I didn't read the article. But still, the idea of inter-species suckling is suddenly hurting my brain. And now I'm seeing it everywhere! Romulus and Remus. Tori Amos.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
The SNP do a good job of running our country, so we will do a good job running yours’ too. You guys are clearly not up to the job.
Does omicron offer immunity against itself? Is that even a thing: a virus which confers no immunity against reinfection by itself. That could be fun
Andc now you are over the edge... If you have the energy have a read of how immunity works and you'll realise why that is a very silly question...
I am quasi delirious, in my defence.
So it’s, er, impossible?
Your body learns about the invader, recognizes elements of it, such as the spike protein and makes weapons to fight and kill it. It also has memory banks which store the plans for the weapons which can be brought out again if needed. The best case is it meets the same invader, so the original weapons (some of which hang around for a fair while) the antibodies, fit perfectly, and the memory banks enable more weapons to be made, which all match exactly too. Mutations means that the weapons are not an exact match, but unless change is significant, they still do the job. Sometimes the changes mean the old weapons don't quite get the job done, but the memory banks pump out way more, and that does the trick. Hence re-infection is possible, but severe illness less so.
So, Bexley by-election a total non-event. Well, colour me shocked. Must admit that I was wrong when I insisted that RefUK wouldn't even hold its deposit - BUT not by very much (I don't know what OKC is going on about, it was an awful result for Tice.) Labour will at least be encouraged by what looks like the solidification of the Left vote behind it, but it's way too soon to conclude that this would be likely to happen in a GE.
Meanwhile...
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being used in the UK as boosters give the best overall boost response, according to a UK trial of seven different jabs.
The trial is the first study of how well Covid booster jabs work and justifies the UK's early decision to use these two vaccines for boosters.
All the vaccines tested raised immunity against Covid to some degree.
Researchers said there were promising signs the boosters would still protect against illness and death from Omicron.
I continue to maintain that the actual healthcare impact of Omicron will be limited in the UK. It might actually do more harm to the economy, as the more cautious fraction of the populace sits trembling inside their homes and doesn't go out and do anything until about June.
As to whether we might get clobbered with more rules, I'm in the same place I have been for months: if the hospitals really start to scream it's going to be because they get hit by a load of flu cases on top of the Covid ones, not because of the latter problem on its own.
Just been listening to R4 on this. Ra Ra Pfizer.
No context as to how the results relate to eg Az Az Pf or Mo Mo Az.
Does anyone know?
I’ve been reading a lot in my sickbed - so I forget the source, sorry - but I read this last hour that the ultimate combo is thought to be AZ AZ MO
Partly because you get a full whack of Mo
But all the combos are great against covid - with the major caveat that we don’t know how good they are against Omicron
According to the leaflet the NHS gave me yesterday, Moderna boosters are half doses.
My vaccinator told me mine was a full whack. Interesting. Perhaps they are now rationing to get as many boosters done as possible before Omicron hits?
Makes sense if they are. We are in (yet another) race
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
That probably is his strategy but Starmer’s fundamental flaw is he thinks the issue with the Red Wall voters is Brexit when actually it is more a wider, socially conservative issue of which Brexit is just one manifestation. So it is likely those voters will come out and vote - not because they love BJ but because their view on anyone non-Labour is that they will favour minority groups over the WWC.
Does omicron offer immunity against itself? Is that even a thing: a virus which confers no immunity against reinfection by itself. That could be fun
Coronaviruses don't seem to confer very long lasting immunity to reinfection anyway (though there's evidence that T-cells persist for extended periods).
Then there are viruses which mess with immune memory (most of them mess with the immune system in one way or another) - measles wipes prior immune memory, which is why the MMR vaccine saves lives. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03324-7 (Measles itself isn't particularly serious, but it opens the way to reinfection with more deadly childhood diseases.)
A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup. If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.
It's a good line. Not good enough for us nerds, but good enough for people whose engagement with politics is minimal. That is, almost everyone.
I know its the media but i was strangely annoyed by the BBC using the change in the majority by votes to attack the Tories, rather than the vote share, which would have been a much better choice.
In the end a good result for Boris then. A solid Conservative hold in Old Bexley and Sidcup with the Conservative voteshare staying over 50%. Although there was a swing to Labour it was also less than would be expected after 11 years of Tory rule in a by election and certainly not high enough for Starmer Labour to be looking likely to win the next general election outright.
ReformUK took 3rd but will be disappointed not to have got a higher voteshare in a seat with demographics made for them. Terrible result for the LDs falling from 3rd to 5th. They will brush it off saying their focus is on North Shropshire but equally even if they win North Shropshire Boris can now dismiss it as a one off Paterson protest vote driven by the LD by electiion machine
Boris undoubtedly would say that but you could argue the other way. OB&S is the outlier because it follows the untimely death of a very well liked local MP. Anyway we'll see what happens.
FWIW it's not correct that it's not high enough for Labour to win a GE. If the Conservative to Labour swing in Old Bexley & Sidcup swing was repeated nationally, Labour would win 322 seats including Boris Johnson's: www.yapms.com/app/?m=dat1 As has been said downthread, this is Labour spin, just as HYUFD's post is Tory spin, but in reality both are roughly true - it's not a result that will worry Johnson especially, but a 10% swing in a demographic of Leave-voting owner-occupiers isn't bad for Labour.
Does anyone have the Worthing result, by the way? That's one that Labour did expect to win and if they did then the majority on the council changes to NOC. Labour never had any councillors in Worthing at all until I think 1992, but are on course to take control next May.
It is not a big enough swing to win a Labour majority, certainly after the boundary changes.
However last night's swing would be enough for a Starmer minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs yes
In an exclusive snap analysis for Playbook, pollster James Johnson from J.L. Partners reckons it’s a decent result for the Conservatives. “The swing against the Tories in Old Bexley and Sidcup was actually the smallest since Sleaford in 2016, and before that the smallest in more than a decade (Glenrothes under Labour in 2008). In terms of recent defensive by-elections, the swing was smaller than Chesham, Brecon, Witney and Richmond Park,” Johnson says. “The swing against the Tories in Old Bexley was smaller than the average in all parliaments since 1997, though due to the effect of Chesham and Amersham, the average swing in defensive by-elections in this parliament remains high. Looking across all defensive governing party by-elections since 1997, the 10.3 percent swing was significantly lower than the average of 16 percent since 1997.”
Johnson concludes: “In the context of these figures, this is a result the Conservatives can be happy with, particularly in mid-term.”
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
The SNP do a good job of running our country, so we will do a good job running yours’ too. You guys are clearly not up to the job.
Disappointing result in OB&S. Labour did a bit worse than I expected (but was in the 30-35% range I had thought). The surprise was Reform, which I thought would pick up a lot of disgruntled Tories upset at all the Johnson missteps especially as their leader was standing and they seem to have had an ambitious ground effort. I thought they could get 20% of the vote, that 7% is a very poor showing and I think will be a source of much Tory relief. I still think the Lib Dems should be narrow favourites in NS given those polling numbers OGH mentioned in a previous thread.
The reality is that a large number of Tory voters stayed at home. We know turnout in by-elections is already suppressed, so more people will vote at the general.
But, if voting numbers drop from the 2017/2019 highs back to their previous level, thats a lot of voters not turning out. We know that many red wallers switched Labour to Con - there's a lot of damage can be done to the Tory tally just by some of these not bothering next time. And the same in the blue wall where there are strong LD challengers.
Tories must be pleased to have stayed above 50% last night, but there remain concerning signs. What would kill them would be the return of the Nigel...
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
Looks like I got Old Bexley and Sidcup spot on so let me try for North Shropshire.
Con 48% Libs 42% Lab 2% Green 3% Others 5%
Turnout 43%
About correct IMHO.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
I did point this out at the weekend, but HY insisted he was about to do very well. All of us forget how little attention most people are paying all this stuff.
It really is quite hard to make a case for REFUK. Being beatly to foreigners and complacent about covid are government policies already. What is the point?
Failure to Get a Grip Over Channel Migrants was their trump card, I thought
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
Agree this is his strategy, but he’ll have to address the SNP somehow. I suggested a month or so ago that he publicly target a “magnificent 7” set of seats of Scotland as to demonstrate that Scotland is central to his playbook and that he is not soft on the SNP.
I'm not sure that will help him in an election campaign - if a hung parliament looks at all possible, the "in Sturgeon's pocket" posters will come out again.
At the cost of damaging the Union even more. "Unionists [sic] refuse to let legitimately elected MPs for Scottish constituencies take part fully in Westminster."
I don't see how that follows.
Tory propaganda portraying it as illegitimate for SNP to be involved in a coalition government or c&s. Will not go down well in Scotland.
If England had its own parliament like Scotland then the SNP giving Labour confidence and supply in a hung parliament would be less of an issue in England.
As it is, Starmer would demand the SNP make him PM and vote on English domestic legislation to give him a working majority in return for him giving the SNP devomax and indyref2
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
The SNP do a good job of running our country, so we will do a good job running yours’ too. You guys are clearly not up to the job.
A Whitehall insider last night told Playbook that things “could be better” following the initial assessments from scientists at home and abroad. There is concern in the U.K. government about those who remain unvaccinated, whose lives could be at risk if a huge Omicron wave rips through the population. The source said that unvaccinated and unboosted Britons getting severely ill could still put pressures on the NHS, warning this was the main domestic danger from Omicron. This is why some European countries have imposed draconian lockdown-style measures on non-jabbed people, they added. There are also worries that the current vaccines are not guaranteed to prevent transmission as successfully as they do now, meaning large numbers of vaccinated people could get a mild illness. However there currently remains optimism that we won’t see vaccine-escape to the level that there is a significant rise in deaths. They also stressed that it was still very early and the picture remains far from clear, and warned against drawing any conclusions at this stage.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
That probably is his strategy but Starmer’s fundamental flaw is he thinks the issue with the Red Wall voters is Brexit when actually it is more a wider, socially conservative issue of which Brexit is just one manifestation. So it is likely those voters will come out and vote - not because they love BJ but because their view on anyone non-Labour is that they will favour minority groups over the WWC.
We absolutely need to focus on the issues that matter to the average person whose vote we are trying to win back. Not the latest trendy cause at a Guardianista dinner party.
Disappointing result in OB&S. Labour did a bit worse than I expected (but was in the 30-35% range I had thought). The surprise was Reform, which I thought would pick up a lot of disgruntled Tories upset at all the Johnson missteps especially as their leader was standing and they seem to have had an ambitious ground effort. I thought they could get 20% of the vote, that 7% is a very poor showing and I think will be a source of much Tory relief. I still think the Lib Dems should be narrow favourites in NS given those polling numbers OGH mentioned in a previous thread.
I think Conservatives campaigners and voters will be buoyed by this result, and that will translate into a comfortable NS win. That is why I predicted pretty similar margins for OB&S and NS yesterday, 15% and 10% respectively. I didn't specify %s but I will admit that I was wrong about both Ref and Green, they bot underperformed my expectations.
Well I got the Green and LD figures spot on at 4% and 3% respectively, and the fact the Greens would be ahead of the LDs.
But other than that, mine wasn't a very good prediction. Seriously overestimated the traction both Labour and Refuk would get and underestimated the Tory share.
Refuk are truly a dead duck joke of a party. Couldn't get a much more sympathetic seat, with their 'leader' running, in a by-election where the voters can give the government a risk free kicking and this is the paltry amount they get? They're not going to even feature remotely at a General Election.
Got to say that it's a good night for the Tories, Boris is currently keeping all the Leave voters onside.
Broadly agree. But SKS's strategy can be misleading. Obviously his approach - attack the Tories, try to avoid unforced errors, give no hostages by having policies - cannot win (326+ seats) an election; but much less is required to decapitate the Tories. Labour can't win an extra 125 seats, but Lab, LD, SNP and Green can fairly easily win the 55 or so required make a Tory government impossible.
Lots of people are missing the fact that this is the SKS strategy. He is absolutely on track to have a 40%+ chance of success.
ATM his biggest problem - "vote Labour, get SNP running the country" - is one he can ignore while consolidating his position. As long as he can pretend his objective is 326 seats he does not have to address it.
If the LDs do well in NS then without winning either seat the non-Tory alliance will have had a good month.
He'll have policies when there's an election, just not in mid-term. This is standard and correct politics. The only reason you'd be announcing policies at this point would be:
1) To address a fundamental branding problem by showing you'll do something you wouldn't have done before 2) As a concession in an internal party fight, because it's the only way to get some faction to STFU
He doesn't need detailed policies years before an election, but he does need something he stands for. Do the broad strokes now, fill the details in later.
Right now we have nothing, an empty vase. That's not a good look.
I think people know what he stands for, he stands for honest, competent managerialism.
Worked for Biden.
Zuckerberg's money would be much less effective in a UK GE, though.
Money wasn't the deciding factor in that election at all, both sides had way more than they could usefully spend.
Zuckerberg directly funded election administration in Dem areas.
And also GOP areas...
Is Boris going to try to create chaos in the election count and get Labour-heavy votes counted later then say they were fraudulent? Because otherwise funding for election administration won't be relevant.
In an exclusive snap analysis for Playbook, pollster James Johnson from J.L. Partners reckons it’s a decent result for the Conservatives. “The swing against the Tories in Old Bexley and Sidcup was actually the smallest since Sleaford in 2016, and before that the smallest in more than a decade (Glenrothes under Labour in 2008). In terms of recent defensive by-elections, the swing was smaller than Chesham, Brecon, Witney and Richmond Park,” Johnson says. “The swing against the Tories in Old Bexley was smaller than the average in all parliaments since 1997, though due to the effect of Chesham and Amersham, the average swing in defensive by-elections in this parliament remains high. Looking across all defensive governing party by-elections since 1997, the 10.3 percent swing was significantly lower than the average of 16 percent since 1997.”
Johnson concludes: “In the context of these figures, this is a result the Conservatives can be happy with, particularly in mid-term.”
I think this really is a terrible result for Labour although it is in line with recent Local Council By-Election results where Labour have not been making the progress that a party who have been in opposition for nearly 12 years should be. The Tories have had their worst month for years yet the swing to Labour was very small for the unique scenario of a By-Election. Despite all the plaudits and positive thread headers on this site, SKS is not cutting through in the non-political world at all.
I’m 40 something and my last shot was 5 months ago.
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
It will take a little time. Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days. And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
The problem is that they will only offer 6 month since last shot, and I am leaving the country in just over two weeks!
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
The day they change the website to 3 months after the last shot is going to have a bit of a bun fight for appointments, with many millions extra suddenly eligible. Note sometimes the sites have had updated availability before the text guidance changes so worth logging in a few times a week to check.
Comments
After the government breathlessly announced boosters for all after three months, I went to the pharmacy to see if I could get my shot.
Turned away.
I appreciate there needs to be a ramp up but I don’t detect any signs of a mass booster mobilisation.
A 10% swing Con to Lab. Likely a bigger swing Con to LD. Tie them together with tactical voting on a large scale and the government are in trouble.
As always, sweep the hubris and spin aside and look at the numbers. Maths doesn't care which party you support.
The oddest thing about OB&S predictions is how well RefUK were supposed to do. Outside the world of PB and, oddly, GE polling companies no-one has ever heard of them. And no-one has ever heard of Richard Tice. Or any non Tory Brexity campaigner except Farage.
Worked for Biden.
By-elections are more about building the narrative, I think. And this morning the narrative is that Labour haven’t made much of a dent on the Tories in an admittedly very unfavourable seat.
Britain's Trump lost heavily in the last General Election and Starmer already took over the Labour leadership from him. That's not going to be enough to win a General Election though.
Even then, Biden only squeaked a narrow victory. Against a credible alternative he'd have lost.
1. Is the cat the woman's emotional support animal?
2. OR is the woman the cat's emotional support human?
3. Has anyone asked the La Leche League for comment?
4. Would you feel differently about this incident IF the cat was hairy?
5. Would you feel differently about this incident IF you were the passenger in 13B?
In 1979-1983, there were 7 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 4/7. They win the next general election comfortably.
In 1983-1987, there were 9 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 5/9. They win the next general election comfortably.
In 1987-1992, there were 10 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 7/10. They win the next general election by a squeak.
in 1992-1997, there were 8 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 8/8. They lose the next general election.
In 2010-2015, there were 4 byelections in Tory seats -- the Tories lost 1/4. They win the next general election.
I'd say the byelection loss rate has to exceed 70 per cent before the Tories have serious worries about the next general election.
"Trump on Johnson: 'They call him Britain Trump'"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-49090804
We are just left hoping he is completely wrong, otherwise...
Its going down in age bands so if you're in 40s need to wait for those older to have theirs first still. Just like the original rollout.
Since Boris is a very successful politician Trump may have wanted to jump on Johnson's coattails but the similarities between them were threadbare unlike those between Corbyn and Trump as Cyclefree's excellent article makes clear.
In fact, nothing’s changed since before Omicron’s discovery.
Have you tried booking online ? I've no idea if the availability for your age range, but I do know that when I booked, only one of the four local centres had anything within the next 7days - but the rest all had something within 10days.
And at the centre I turned up to, they weren't accepting any walk ins.
The numbers trying to get the booster have definitely ramped up.
But what's changed is they've made it explicit that everyone is going to be eligible to get the booster, but quite rightly without bumping us ahead of the queue before older people have been done yet.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/30/well/eat/why-does-coffee-make-you-poop.html?algo=combo_als_clicks_decay_96_50_ranks&block=5&campaign_id=142&emc=edit_fory_20211203&fellback=false&imp_id=119480257&instance_id=46845&nl=for-you&nlid=88229809&pool=pool/fa8f6616-7b25-42bd-bdbf-7abdec20107e&rank=3&regi_id=88229809&req_id=343126247&segment_id=75950&surface=for-you-email-rotating-health&user_id=6ab16a21d4246b147c811d1eb9117d78&variant=0_clicks_decay_96
There's no real hard data yet on how serious it is for any given cohort. AZN ought to have some very good data on their vaccine within a few weeks, since they ran a clinical trial in SA.
I was hoping to find a cheeky drop-in, as some managed to find during the last vax roll-out.
The Tories have a similar problem: They can keep Boris and run on entertaining patriotic chaos, but the risk is that the voters will be sick of that by then and pick someone who just looks like they can do the job without bollocksing it up or stealing too much. Or they can replace Boris, but it's not really clear whether the replacement will be able to reach the parts he could.
I wouldn't personally have picked the Starmer strategy (I voted for Nandy, I think it helps to be a bit spikier these days) but it's definitely a strategy.
And there ought to be some sign of the ramp up within that time.
Good luck.
The overall difference in transmissibility is something whose effect on the numbers of infections will compound every generation - that is, roughly every 5 days.
The difference in transmissibility is going to be the crucial factor in influencing the impact on the health service, and that is what we already have a much better handle on. Even for the UK, unless there's an alternative explanation, the S-gene dropout data are indicating a big advantage in transmissibility over Delta.
We need to have a way of coping with a variant that is much more transmissible than Delta overall (taking both intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape into account). And also taking account of the fact that it's already here, apparently in significant numbers.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Foldable-Portable-Waterproof-Collapsible-Outdoor/dp/B095NV3Z2K/ref=pd_lpo_1?pd_rd_i=B095NV3Z2K&psc=1
I wasn't specifically asked the date of my 2nd dose when getting walk in booster BUT I gave my name dob and NHS number and got IDed off a computer which probably told them the date.
Not everyone will survive but that's a fact of life, stop being hysterical about it.
That was despite the initial AstraZeneca trial in South Africa having shown no significant efficacy against infection, evidently owing to immune escape (though the lack of significance was probably due to the smallness of the trial).
Apparently Omicron is a descendant of Alpha rather than Beta, but the suggestion is that we may see something similar for Omicron in relation to vaccines in general.
In fact, I think the best way to sum up this result is that it’s about the sort of by-election swing that Ed Miliband was getting from David Cameron
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1466599134912258059?s=20
I don’t see how we escape a horrible winter, now, with associated lockdowns. Unless Omicron rips through so fast it doesn’t matter
Lancet study of boosters published yesterday. Pre-omocron but finds good T cell boosting effects which apparently is grounds for optimism
Does anyone have the Worthing result, by the way? That's one that Labour did expect to win and if they did then the majority on the council changes to NOC. Labour never had any councillors in Worthing at all until I think 1992, but are on course to take control next May.
spinstweets:A fantastic 10.3% swing to Labour in the Conservative heartland of Old Bexley and Sidcup. If replicated at a general election Labour would be within reach of forming a majority government.
https://twitter.com/elliereeves/status/1466597690528055299?s=20
So it’s, er, impossible?
The crucial point in the story about the "breastfed cat" is that the cat didn't want to latch on and was distressed about the way it was swaddled. I don't know what the story is with the cat owner, but if it were in the UK I imagine the RSPCA would now be involved.
@paulwaugh
·
1h
With the Lib Dems quietly confident of pulling off "another Amersham" in North Shropshire,
@BorisJohnson is facing a pincer movement from left and right (with different pincers in different seats)
And now I'm seeing it everywhere! Romulus and Remus. Tori Amos.
Mutations means that the weapons are not an exact match, but unless change is significant, they still do the job. Sometimes the changes mean the old weapons don't quite get the job done, but the memory banks pump out way more, and that does the trick. Hence re-infection is possible, but severe illness less so.
Then there are viruses which mess with immune memory (most of them mess with the immune system in one way or another) - measles wipes prior immune memory, which is why the MMR vaccine saves lives.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03324-7
(Measles itself isn't particularly serious, but it opens the way to reinfection with more deadly childhood diseases.)
However last night's swing would be enough for a Starmer minority government propped up by the SNP and LDs yes
Johnson concludes: “In the context of these figures, this is a result the Conservatives can be happy with, particularly in mid-term.”
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/breaking-tories-hold-bexley-meet-sadiq-omicron-1-week-on/
But, if voting numbers drop from the 2017/2019 highs back to their previous level, thats a lot of voters not turning out. We know that many red wallers switched Labour to Con - there's a lot of damage can be done to the Tory tally just by some of these not bothering next time. And the same in the blue wall where there are strong LD challengers.
Tories must be pleased to have stayed above 50% last night, but there remain concerning signs. What would kill them would be the return of the Nigel...
As it is, Starmer would demand the SNP make him PM and vote on English domestic legislation to give him a working majority in return for him giving the SNP devomax and indyref2
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/breaking-tories-hold-bexley-meet-sadiq-omicron-1-week-on/
I'm going to nudge my NS margin up to 15% now.
Is Boris going to try to create chaos in the election count and get Labour-heavy votes counted later then say they were fraudulent? Because otherwise funding for election administration won't be relevant.