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And so the polls close in Old Bexley & Sidcup – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,778
edited December 2021 in General
imageAnd so the polls close in Old Bexley & Sidcup – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,863
    OBS prediction:
    Con 42
    Lab 31
    RefUK 16
    Oth 6
    LD 5
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,681
    Con hold is my prediction.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    3rd like RefUK?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Con by 8% here
    LD by 1% in North Shropshire

    Were my predictions from earlier today.

    Be fun to see people's predictions in one place, its a shame we don't do prediction games anymore.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,399
    edited December 2021
    Welcome to election night. My prediction from earlier today was Con 44%, Lab 28%, Ref 20%, LD 5%, Green 2%, Others 1%. That would be a swing of 12.5% from Con to Lab.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,077
    Pro_Rata said:

    OBS prediction:
    Con 42
    Lab 31
    RefUK 16
    Oth 6
    LD 5

    I go

    CON 45
    LAB 27
    REF 15
    GRN 6
    LD 5
    Others 2
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    Pro_Rata said:

    OBS prediction:
    Con 42
    Lab 31
    RefUK 16
    Oth 6
    LD 5

    Very very close to what HYUFD told us days ago.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    Con hold.

    Reform 2nd

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    I predict that Brexit will be as big a mistake tomorrow as it was today.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,863
    MoonRabbit said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OBS prediction:
    Con 42
    Lab 31
    RefUK 16
    Oth 6
    LD 5

    Very very close to what HYUFD told us days ago.
    Are you going to claim your £5?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,753
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con by 8% here
    LD by 1% in North Shropshire

    Were my predictions from earlier today.

    Be fun to see people's predictions in one place, its a shame we don't do prediction games anymore.

    I agree. This means material uncertainty in North Shropshire. Good chance for Ed Davey to get his blue wall hammer out in two weeks time.

    Still 11 seats for LD after the next GE.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,077
    Tomorrows job for me

    https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/3175/community-membership-form.pdf
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    edited December 2021
    Pro_Rata said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OBS prediction:
    Con 42
    Lab 31
    RefUK 16
    Oth 6
    LD 5

    Very very close to what HYUFD told us days ago.
    Are you going to claim your £5?
    It’s not this election I’ve got the bet on, it’s the Salop one.

    Conservatives were never going to lose this seat to the socialists.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,786
    londonpubman said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con by 8% here
    LD by 1% in North Shropshire

    Were my predictions from earlier today.

    Be fun to see people's predictions in one place, its a shame we don't do prediction games anymore.

    I agree. This means material uncertainty in North Shropshire. Good chance for Ed Davey to get his blue wall hammer out in two weeks time.

    Still 11 seats for LD after the next GE.
    Con by about 10 percentage points at OB&S, and at NS.

    Reform to do fairly badly - like 4-5%.

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    For those down in the mouth about the current Supreme Court deliberations, there is at least a silver lining in the way it causes the left to adjust its priorities

    https://twitter.com/AuronMacintyre/status/1466175527954305027?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Con 43
    Lab 35
    Refuk 13
    Green 4
    LD 3
    Others 2
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,077
    Margaret Hodge, Labour MP for Barking since 1994, has announced to her CLP that she will be standing down at the next General Election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    Allie Hodgkins-Brown
    @AllieHBNews
    ·
    35m
    Friday’s i - “Deleted: NHS Covid app use is falling, raising fears over Omicron”


    (File under 'No shit Sherlock')


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    Richard Vernalls
    @rvernallsPA
    ·
    1h
    Hat tip to fellow journalist
    @CarlJackson_LDR @birmingham_live who, out of all the press covering the trial, logged more hours than any other reporter, inc. sitting through each of Tustin’s harrowing recordings. He helped give Arthur back a voice, making sure his truth was told:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    Margaret Hodge, Labour MP for Barking since 1994, has announced to her CLP that she will be standing down at the next General Election.

    I have always felt sorry for Margaret Hodge. Each MP is supposed to be the only one to represent their constituency, but half of her colleagues were Barking.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Fairliered said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fairliered said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Have we discussed the weird Scotsman poll? Sudden bounce for independence, now 55-45. Personal ratings Sturgeon +20, Sarwar +17 (also a bounce upwards), Ross -27, Johnson -64 (the lowest rating ever recorded by Ipsos-Mori) SNP 52 (+2), Con 19 (-1), Lab 17(-5!) constituency, 43/20/15 and Greens 12 regional. So a typical Scot is an Indy-loving, Sarwar-loving, Labour-hating voter.

    Apparently.

    Several times. Most recently when HYUFD insisted on counting the NDs against indy. But don't forget Mr Ross was caught not, erm,. bothering to declare his earnings from (a) his second apparently full time job as a representative in another parliament, AND his third job as a footie referee.

    Edit: but that SLAB discrepancy is odd.

    Scots look at Anas Sarwar and think he’s not too bad (compared to his predecessors). Then they look at their local Labour councillors and think “I’m not voting for that bunch of incompetent troughers”.
    Might be other reasons for the latter, too, such as being second rate Tory Unionists (as in Aberdeen). But it's not as if, say, Mesdames/Messrs Murphy, Dugdale, Leonard etc. had the gravitas of, say, John Smith or Donald Dewar - or Wendy Alexander.
    In retrospect, the much maligned Wendy was a giant compared to Lamont, Leonard, Murphy etc. She hugely pissed off her demented boss Gordon Brown, which cost her her job. But history has proven her right. And him stark raving.
    Wendy was so much better than her more famous, but smug and slimy, brother.
    Yes. Wee Dougie was a total dud.

    Going back to the original point, Anas Sarwar is also much better than Lamont, Gray, Leonard, Murphy, Dugdale etc etc. He is at least a decent chap by all accounts. But he just has no vim. No fire.

    The personal ratings - Sturgeon +20, Sarwar +17, Ross -27, Johnson -64 (the lowest rating ever recorded by Ipsos-Mori) - look and feel about right.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2021
    rottenborough said:

    Richard Vernalls
    @rvernallsPA
    ·
    1h
    Hat tip to fellow journalist
    @CarlJackson_LDR @birmingham_live who, out of all the press covering the trial, logged more hours than any other reporter, inc. sitting through each of Tustin’s harrowing recordings. He helped give Arthur back a voice, making sure his truth was told:

    Yes. Carl Jackson’s piece is excellent;

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/two-killer-parents-hateful-stepmum-22348931
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Do we have any PBers on the ground tonight in OB&S?

    FPT - Best wishes to & for Leon, sorry for your situation and (to paraphrase a Famous American) glad I am NOT feeling your pain (though TSE does have a point).

    Also glad your holed up somewhere copacetic until you really know what you've got, with luck (and this IS a betting site) something not so serious.

    Until then, enjoy the joy of another Great British By-Election!

    Remember - it's the meanness that keeps you going - it serves 'em right!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    ping said:

    rottenborough said:

    Richard Vernalls
    @rvernallsPA
    ·
    1h
    Hat tip to fellow journalist
    @CarlJackson_LDR @birmingham_live who, out of all the press covering the trial, logged more hours than any other reporter, inc. sitting through each of Tustin’s harrowing recordings. He helped give Arthur back a voice, making sure his truth was told:

    Yes. Carl Jackson’s piece is excellent;

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/two-killer-parents-hateful-stepmum-22348931
    Moving, terrible piece.

    Is there a prison sentence long enough? Hoping the judge throws the book at the wall.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Have we discussed the weird Scotsman poll? Sudden bounce for independence, now 55-45. Personal ratings Sturgeon +20, Sarwar +17 (also a bounce upwards), Ross -27, Johnson -64 (the lowest rating ever recorded by Ipsos-Mori) SNP 52 (+2), Con 19 (-1), Lab 17(-5!) constituency, 43/20/15 and Greens 12 regional. So a typical Scot is an Indy-loving, Sarwar-loving, Labour-hating voter.

    Apparently.

    Several times. Most recently when HYUFD insisted on counting the NDs against indy. But don't forget Mr Ross was caught not, erm,. bothering to declare his earnings from (a) his second apparently full time job as a representative in another parliament, AND his third job as a footie referee.

    Edit: but that SLAB discrepancy is odd.

    I don’t think the discrepancy is that odd. It is because although only 17% of respondents are planning on voting SLab next time round, a lot of voters for other parties think that Sarwar is doing a good job. Whereas, by contrast, Ross is more of a marmite figure, appealing to folk who vote SCon anyway, but making zilch impact outwith the core vote (cf Ruth Davidson).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    bigjohnowls said:

    Margaret Hodge, Labour MP for Barking since 1994, has announced to her CLP that she will be standing down at the next General Election.

    Any thoughts re: potential candidates to become her successor?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,077
    Must be time for this years version of this surely

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjG_VB-la7o&t=129s
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,861
    edited December 2021
    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?
                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tomorrows job for me

    https://www.unitetheunion.org/media/3175/community-membership-form.pdf

    If it’s any consolation Big John, myself, my friend, my Dad, particularly my mum and brother all still regard Labour as though Corbyn and his crew never went away - the insane scatter gun giveaways of the last Labour manifesto is still their policies, anti semitism and a past canoodling with the IRA and other terrorists is still Labour history, and they have swapped one unelectable left of centre leader for another. And there’s millions of people who agree with us on this, desperate to keep any kind of left wing government out of power because all the reds are under the bed.

    Don’t know if this makes you feel any happier at all.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,296
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con 43
    Lab 35
    Refuk 13
    Green 4
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I totally concur with that prediction which probably means it's crap.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,913
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con by 8% here
    LD by 1% in North Shropshire

    Were my predictions from earlier today.

    Be fun to see people's predictions in one place, its a shame we don't do prediction games anymore.

    I think I predicted a Tory hold by 10% in North Shropshire and by 15% in Old Bexley and Sidcup.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,861
    Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    StuartDickson said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Have we discussed the weird Scotsman poll? Sudden bounce for independence, now 55-45. Personal ratings Sturgeon +20, Sarwar +17 (also a bounce upwards), Ross -27, Johnson -64 (the lowest rating ever recorded by Ipsos-Mori) SNP 52 (+2), Con 19 (-1), Lab 17(-5!) constituency, 43/20/15 and Greens 12 regional. So a typical Scot is an Indy-loving, Sarwar-loving, Labour-hating voter.

    Apparently.

    Several times. Most recently when HYUFD insisted on counting the NDs against indy. But don't forget Mr Ross was caught not, erm,. bothering to declare his earnings from (a) his second apparently full time job as a representative in another parliament, AND his third job as a footie referee.

    Edit: but that SLAB discrepancy is odd.

    I don’t think the discrepancy is that odd. It is because although only 17% of respondents are planning on voting SLab next time round, a lot of voters for other parties think that Sarwar is doing a good job. Whereas, by contrast, Ross is more of a marmite figure, appealing to folk who vote SCon anyway, but making zilch impact outwith the core vote (cf Ruth Davidson).
    Could it be that the boost for Sawar comes in part from Conservatives who think he's better than Ross (who isn't?) but who still intend to vote true blue, or at least strategically in the Tory interest?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,915
    edited December 2021
    Very surprised everyone has Tories below 50%.
    I suggested that as a benchmark for relative success a couple of weeks ago and no one really demurred.
    I think folk suspect the mask thing is not popular. Been a longstanding PB Blindspot.
    FWIW.
    Con 52
    Lab 28
    Ref 7
    Green 6
    LD 4
    Others 3.

    Prepared to be wrong.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    Must be time for this years version of this surely

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjG_VB-la7o&t=129s

    Have you seen this one? I think you'll appreciate it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j3zuVDTDP8
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,399
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”

    Not exactly what they were saying a few days ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,291
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”

    Didn't Farage say similar in 2016?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,786
    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2


    Thanks for the consolidated list! It's always odd when there is absolutely no data at all except the current state of play and the history of by elections. I am rather out of line in suggesting that RefUK will do worse than most expect (4-5% of the vote). It seems to me that they gain no traction at all in the media, general publicity etc and so should be classed along with the new party also rans of recent history.

    We will probably all be wrong. At the odds as they have been I have nothing at all on this except a token quid or so on Labour.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”

    Not exactly what they were saying a few days ago.
    Difference between managing expectations (now) and getting out the vote (then)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,399
    kjh said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Con 43
    Lab 35
    Refuk 13
    Green 4
    LD 3
    Others 2

    I totally concur with that prediction which probably means it's crap.
    I'd be surprised if it's as close as that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Carnyx said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Have we discussed the weird Scotsman poll? Sudden bounce for independence, now 55-45. Personal ratings Sturgeon +20, Sarwar +17 (also a bounce upwards), Ross -27, Johnson -64 (the lowest rating ever recorded by Ipsos-Mori) SNP 52 (+2), Con 19 (-1), Lab 17(-5!) constituency, 43/20/15 and Greens 12 regional. So a typical Scot is an Indy-loving, Sarwar-loving, Labour-hating voter.

    Apparently.

    Several times. Most recently when HYUFD insisted on counting the NDs against indy. But don't forget Mr Ross was caught not, erm,. bothering to declare his earnings from (a) his second apparently full time job as a representative in another parliament, AND his third job as a footie referee.

    Edit: but that SLAB discrepancy is odd.

    I don’t think the discrepancy is that odd. It is because although only 17% of respondents are planning on voting SLab next time round, a lot of voters for other parties think that Sarwar is doing a good job. Whereas, by contrast, Ross is more of a marmite figure, appealing to folk who vote SCon anyway, but making zilch impact outwith the core vote (cf Ruth Davidson).
    Could it be that the boost for Sawar comes in part from Conservatives who think he's better than Ross (who isn't?) but who still intend to vote true blue, or at least strategically in the Tory interest?
    Absolutely, it could be other Unionist voters who judge that Sarwar is doing a good job as Labour leader, or at least a much better job than the long list of Labour leaders in recent years.

    However, I think a lot of SNP and Green voters - and DKs on the VI question - could also judge that Sarwar is doing a decent job. It doesn’t mean they’ll vote for his shambolic party.

    (Please not that approval question are not single-choice: you can approve of several of the named leaders.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,150
    Michael Carrick leaves Manchester United with immediate effect

    He certainly performed in the few games he managed
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 613
    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2

    44 38 11 3 2 2
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”

    Didn't Farage say similar in 2016?
    My main prediction is that the LDs will lose their deposit
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,291
    algarkirk said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2


    Thanks for the consolidated list! It's always odd when there is absolutely no data at all except the current state of play and the history of by elections. I am rather out of line in suggesting that RefUK will do worse than most expect (4-5% of the vote). It seems to me that they gain no traction at all in the media, general publicity etc and so should be classed along with the new party also rans of recent history.

    We will probably all be wrong. At the odds as they have been I have nothing at all on this except a token quid or so on Labour.

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    Reformatted it for you :smile:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,349
    Con 53
    Lab 28
    Ref 11
    LD 3
    Grn 3
    Other 2
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    First result of the night; Supporting our Community 177, No Description 114, Independent 22. Swavesey Parish Council on the ball.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2


    Thanks for the consolidated list! It's always odd when there is absolutely no data at all except the current state of play and the history of by elections. I am rather out of line in suggesting that RefUK will do worse than most expect (4-5% of the vote). It seems to me that they gain no traction at all in the media, general publicity etc and so should be classed along with the new party also rans of recent history.

    We will probably all be wrong. At the odds as they have been I have nothing at all on this except a token quid or so on Labour.

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    Reformatted it for you :smile:
    I see I am only one saying Ref will get 2nd.

    Probably indicates I am wildly off beam as usual.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    I would be very surprised if it’s anything other than a Tory hold with a reduced majority. Basically meaningless. The usual suspects will spin this of course to support whatever axe they have to grind. But 🤷‍♀️
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,296
    MikeSmithson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    [Labour] MP Ellie Reeves says as polls close: “This seat has always been a safe Tory seat and we don’t expect that to change tonight… To win this was never within reach for us.”

    Didn't Farage say similar in 2016?
    My main prediction is that the LDs will lose their deposit
    I think it not an unreasonable bet that the LDs lose their deposit here and win in NS.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,164
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2


    Thanks for the consolidated list! It's always odd when there is absolutely no data at all except the current state of play and the history of by elections. I am rather out of line in suggesting that RefUK will do worse than most expect (4-5% of the vote). It seems to me that they gain no traction at all in the media, general publicity etc and so should be classed along with the new party also rans of recent history.

    We will probably all be wrong. At the odds as they have been I have nothing at all on this except a token quid or so on Labour.

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    Reformatted it for you :smile:
    It's really not Labour territory, so I expect a disappointing night for them.
    Hence I predict:
    47 -26 - 13 - 6 - 4 - 4. Turnout a miserly 33. (Order as in Table)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    You voted for them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,153
    Crazy that Edward Heath was still an MP in 1997
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    Some virus Professor who is on QT panel, says he would not be happy going to a xmas gatherings with a load of people.

    He is literally in a studio with a load of people.

    He probably travelled there by train and taxi.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,863
    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    OBS just my non standard Old Bexley & Sidcup abbreviation, not yet another alter ego :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


    Con Lab Ref LD Gr Other Turnout
    Me 48 32 11 3 3 2 40
    Foxy 46 34 8 3 5 4 38
    AndyJS 44 28 20 5 2 1 38
    OBS Pro Rata 42 31 16 5 6
    Philip Thompson 43 35 13 4 3 2
    Rottenborough Con 1st, Ref 2nd
    Algarkirk Con by 10 4-5
    Bjo 45 27 15 6 5 2

    LAST time 64.5 23.5 0 8.3 3.2


    Thanks for the consolidated list! It's always odd when there is absolutely no data at all except the current state of play and the history of by elections. I am rather out of line in suggesting that RefUK will do worse than most expect (4-5% of the vote). It seems to me that they gain no traction at all in the media, general publicity etc and so should be classed along with the new party also rans of recent history.

    We will probably all be wrong. At the odds as they have been I have nothing at all on this except a token quid or so on Labour.

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    Reformatted it for you :smile:
    I had LDs and Greens the other way around. I forecast the Greens ahead of the LDs here.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    You voted for them.
    No I didn't.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Pro_Rata said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Consolidated predictions, collected for fun. Broadly in line for most but huge differences on RefUK. Not sure who OBS is - the same as Pro Rata?


                             Con     Lab   Ref LD  Gr  Other   Turnout
    Me                       48      32    11  3   3   2          40
    Foxy                     46      34    8   3   5   4          38
    AndyJS                   44      28    20  5   2   1          38
    OBS Pro Rata             42      31    16  5       6    
    Philip Thompson          43      35    13  4   3   2   
    Rottenborough            Con 1st, Ref 2nd                       
    Algarkirk                Con by 10       4-5                
    Bjo                      45      27    15  6   5   2   

    LAST time                64.5    23.5  0   8.3 3.2
    OBS just my non standard Old Bexley & Sidcup abbreviation, not yet another alter ego :)
    O.B.A Sidcup would make a great nom de plume (et punt?)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,070
    NickPalmer said:

    Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.

    It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going

    eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year

    FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom

    I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful

    Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?

    I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2021
    NickPalmer said:

    slade said:

    First result of the night; Supporting our Community 177, No Description 114, Independent 22. Swavesey Parish Council on the ball.

    Why doesn't someone have the guts to found an Opposing Our Community party?

    I remember once the Labour conference passing a bland motion entitled Peace, Progress and Prosperity, by 3 million votes to 318,000. A bored fellow-MP observed, "That's a bloody good result for War, Reaction and Destitution."
    It must have been while Tony Blair still had some support then.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,861
    Wisdom of crowds department: our mean prediction based on 8 posts with detailed numbers is

    Con 46 (-18)
    Lab 30 (+6)
    Ref 11 (+11)
    LD 4 (=)
    Gr 3 (=)
    Turnout 37%

    I reckon Cons would be publicly satisfied but uneasy about the rise of Ref, Lab would note the 12% swing but feel privately meh, Ref would be thrilled, everyone else would shrug. (After a couple of days, we'd all shrug.)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
    Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?

    I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,702
    NickPalmer said:

    Wisdom of crowds department: our mean prediction based on 8 posts with detailed numbers is

    Con 46 (-18)
    Lab 30 (+6)
    Ref 11 (+11)
    LD 4 (=)
    Gr 3 (=)
    Turnout 37%

    I reckon Cons would be publicly satisfied but uneasy about the rise of Ref, Lab would note the 12% swing but feel privately meh, Ref would be thrilled, everyone else would shrug. (After a couple of days, we'd all shrug.)

    From my earlier post (2ish)

    Con 50
    Lab 30
    RefUK 10
    Green 3
    LD 2
    Others 5

    Didn’t have a turnout. 40%.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    theProle said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Gallowgate said:

    StuartDickson said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    StuartDickson said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    turbotubbs said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Important message for car-twats:

    Sarah Phelps
    @PhelpsieSarah
    I was a bit of a dick about doing the speed awareness course but I haven’t stopped thinking about it. Shocked by how much I drive like a stressy careless twat. Thinking about doing an advanced course or something like that so I’m not a car-twat.
    https://twitter.com/PhelpsieSarah/status/1466324421027770371

    I did one earlier this year after being done for 27 mph in a 20 mph zone. Some interesting points, but I'm still bitter about the location.

    In some ways driving is to easy - so people find they can all too easily drift off in their attention.
    I drove through Hampton recently and I was so lucky that I was behind a local who knew it was a 20 limit. There are cameras both ways and they catch loads of people. Curiously, Google Street View is messed up just at bit where the cameras are:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdzyz8cj

    For me, the issue is that driving is routine. We do it without incident for the vast majority of time.

    Those 20 limits are an utter disgrace, in my opinion.
    As per previous thread I hired a Ford Puma the other day which knew, and limited itself to, the speed limit. This was in Scotland where all towns seem to be 20 mph. Must have saved me several tickets.
    That’s one of the reasons I love our Volvos. Their smart safety system must have saved me a fortune over the years. The cars have rock-solid info on all speed limit zones, and warn you if you’re going too fast when changing to a new zone.

    Waze is almost as good, but maybe less user-friendly than an in-built system.

    Our other car has no such system and I often find myself driving far too fast.
    The mismatching cars can be a killer. I did £1500 damage to a land rover a few years ago because I expected it to have reversing sensors and it didn't. Thinking you have ABS when you haven't can also be problematic.
    Snap.

    Our Mini was the first of our cars in about ten years not to have reversing sensors. Various family members have now smashed the rear bumper on three occasions, so I can’t be bothered repairing the latest incident. It’s going in March anyway.
    Weird, I've never had a car with reversing sensors.
    I’m a huge fan.

    Other outstanding newer safety features:
    Adaptive cruise control
    Automatic braking
    Lane change warners
    Smart headlights

    I’m also a full convert to automatic and AWD. Although when on holiday I love to hire a crapmobile with a dodgy manual gearbox and no A/C. Just wind down the windows and pump up the radio
    Smart headlights are a terrible invention which should be utterly banned. They may be great for the driver of the vehicle to which they are fitted, but I'm totally fed up of being dazzled by the stupid things, as they aren't very good at working out what they are looking at until its far to late (I generally dip before the guy going the other way comes round the corner, rather than 5 seconds after like most smart headlights - it's a skill called anticipation at which which car computer systems remain very poor).

    On the jumping from vehicle to vehicle thing, we have three forklifts at work:

    One has hydrostatic transmission, which means single pedal operation - you let go of the throttle and the transmission brings it to a halt.
    The other two have torque converter transmissions which roll when you come off the throttle - one has a RH throttle and brake set up (like an auto car), the other has the older configuration of a LH brake RH throttle.

    By the time you've mastered regularly driving all three and had a few panics going for a brake pedal which isn't there, you can drive pretty much anything...
    Fair point about smart headlights. Although fantastic for me, I do note that it bugs a significant minority of motorists coming towards me. But I probably manage to bug a fair few even with old-fashioned manual full-beam, so I’m not sure it makes much difference at the end of the day.

    Your fork-lift truck scenario sounds horrendous.

    Incidentally, yesterday’s snowstorm chaos has put me off electric cars again. Apparently the main cause of motorway chaos was foreign HGVs still using summer tyres (now illegal in Sweden), but closely followed by electric cars stuck in traffic jams and simply conking out all over the place. It took half a day to tow all the stone-dead cars to charging stations.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,915
    edited December 2021
    Best candidate name in locals tonight is Bruce Rainbow.
    Tory in Wealden. And LGBT friendly professional wrestler by night. Maybe.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,783
    edited December 2021
    Leon said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.

    It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going

    eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year

    FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom

    I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful

    Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?

    I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
    Those 9th c doctors were spot on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,571
    Gallowgate said:

    Crazy that Edward Heath was still an MP in 1997

    Nah, it was nearly 20 years before Operation Midland.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    Leon said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.

    It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going

    eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year

    FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom

    I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful

    Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?

    I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
    “ I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. “.

    Wow. 🤗

    Please take this seriously, you could make money writing for Mills&Broom.

    Or People’s Friend.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,915
    OB+S on Newsnight right now.
    Turnout low. Tories "quietly confident".
    Well spank my ass and call me Charlie I'm shocked.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,983
    NickPalmer said:

    Wisdom of crowds department: our mean prediction based on 8 posts with detailed numbers is

    Con 46 (-18)
    Lab 30 (+6)
    Ref 11 (+11)
    LD 4 (=)
    Gr 3 (=)
    Turnout 37%

    I reckon Cons would be publicly satisfied but uneasy about the rise of Ref, Lab would note the 12% swing but feel privately meh, Ref would be thrilled, everyone else would shrug. (After a couple of days, we'd all shrug.)

    If that were the result it would be the first time Sir Keir’s Labour had bettered a GE19 (aka Jezza’s bad election) vote share in an English by election. 23.5% is the number to beat
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,861
    If the swing in the national polls showing a tie were replicated, the result would be

    Con 58
    Lab 30
    Ref 5
    LD 3
    Gr 4

    which is much as he collectively predict, except we think there will be a bigger Con-Ref swing (which is likely 'cos they've made a proper local effort)
  • isamisam Posts: 42,983
    Waiting for NEW THREAD: 1.01 is Surely too short for the Cons in OBS!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,492
    NickPalmer said:

    Wisdom of crowds department: our mean prediction based on 8 posts with detailed numbers is

    Con 46 (-18)
    Lab 30 (+6)
    Ref 11 (+11)
    LD 4 (=)
    Gr 3 (=)
    Turnout 37%

    I reckon Cons would be publicly satisfied but uneasy about the rise of Ref, Lab would note the 12% swing but feel privately meh, Ref would be thrilled, everyone else would shrug. (After a couple of days, we'd all shrug.)

    Buying Con at 46, Selling Ref at 11, not getting involved in Lab at 30.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,841
    NickPalmer said:

    slade said:

    First result of the night; Supporting our Community 177, No Description 114, Independent 22. Swavesey Parish Council on the ball.

    Why doesn't someone have the guts to found an Opposing Our Community party?
    Maybe they did, but didn't any votes?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Best candidate name in locals tonight is Bruce Rainbow.
    Tory in Wealden. And LGBT friendly professional wrestler by night. Maybe.

    In Old Bexley the English Democrats have a trans fromager as their candidate: Elaine Cheeseman.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,413
    Con 57
    Lab 28
    Ref 10

    For its supporters Cons haven't done too much wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,406
    edited December 2021
    The word is a very low turnout in Bexley and Sidcup by-election
    https://twitter.com/TVRav/status/1466545867968581634?s=20
    Polling stations have closed in Old Bexley and Sidcup

    Last ballot box to arrive at around midnight

    Told to expect a result some time around 0200

    Talking to people on the ground, low turnout expected
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1466527755479273488?s=20
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
    Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?

    I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
    Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.

    Here you are.

    Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.

    Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change.
    We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes. 

    We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,472
    I don't wish to belittle the suffering of a PBer but is the person who thought he was one of the first people in the UK to get covid now thinking he's one of the first people in the UK to get omicron ?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,983
    Patriotic Alliance leaflet in OBS

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1466539074198687745?s=21
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466547868005769218

    Labour should prepare for Government!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,915
    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
    Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?

    I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
    Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.

    Here you are.

    Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.

    Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change.
    We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes. 

    We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.


    Doubtless they like fluffy kittens too.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,267
    Lab hold in Newport.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    dixiedean said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
    Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?

    I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
    Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.

    Here you are.

    Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.

    Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change.
    We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes. 

    We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.


    Doubtless they like fluffy kittens too.
    I’m sure there will be PB posters who this appeals to, but obviously not Mr Thompson I accept.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,340
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Michael Carrick leaves Manchester United with immediate effect

    He certainly performed in the few games he managed

    If you were inventing a corporate Frankenstein Monster it would be Man Utd. Dysfunctional and venal
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,807
    edited December 2021
    New York state reports 11,331 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January

    New York City Mayor de Blasio and Governor Hochul to hold press conference on Omicron at 6 p.m. ET
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,070
    another_richard said:

    I don't wish to belittle the suffering of a PBer but is the person who thought he was one of the first people in the UK to get covid now thinking he's one of the first people in the UK to get omicron ?

    I am aware of the faintly ludicrous nature of this, nonetheless PHE was convinced I had it the first time, and my symptoms this time certainly match the descriptions. Let’s wait and see for my PCR. If it turns out I actually have Ebola you can come and heckle at my cremation
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466547868005769218

    Labour should prepare for Government!!!

    Silly Horse! But keep smiling. 🙂
  • isamisam Posts: 42,983
    Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc

    https://twitter.com/profimranawan/status/1466122608206761991?s=21
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    slade said:

    Lab hold in Newport.

    You do brilliant work on this every week Slade 👍🏻

    And named yourself after a great band too!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?

    What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.

    How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.

    It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?

    What do you think HYUFD

    😂

    Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.

    Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
    standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid

    Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?

    Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.

    They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
    Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?

    I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
    Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.

    Here you are.

    Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.

    Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change.
    We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes. 

    We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.


    The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.

    But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,150
    Roger said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Michael Carrick leaves Manchester United with immediate effect

    He certainly performed in the few games he managed

    If you were inventing a corporate Frankenstein Monster it would be Man Utd. Dysfunctional and venal
    He resigned on his own decision and wants time away from the game

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,581
    HYUFD said:

    The word is a very low turnout in Bexley and Sidcup by-election
    https://twitter.com/TVRav/status/1466545867968581634?s=20
    Polling stations have closed in Old Bexley and Sidcup

    Last ballot box to arrive at around midnight

    Told to expect a result some time around 0200

    Talking to people on the ground, low turnout expected
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1466527755479273488?s=20

    Brilliant reporting as ever HYUFD!

    Will you be going to Shropshire too? Or would you need PB to have a whip round to send you on your way?
This discussion has been closed.

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