If the swing in the national polls showing a tie were replicated, the result would be
Con 58 Lab 30 Ref 5 LD 3 Gr 4
which is much as he collectively predict, except we think there will be a bigger Con-Ref swing (which is likely 'cos they've made a proper local effort)
If RefUK can't get at least 10% in a seat like this they might as well give up altogether IMO.
I don't wish to belittle the suffering of a PBer but is the person who thought he was one of the first people in the UK to get covid now thinking he's one of the first people in the UK to get omicron ?
I am aware of the faintly ludicrous nature of this, nonetheless PHE was convinced I had it the first time, and my symptoms this time certainly match the descriptions. Let’s wait and see for my PCR. If it turns out I actually have Ebola you can come and heckle at my cremation
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
Culture war features a lot on this site, in a pro ReformUK way! It features a lot in Conservative government position too!
Is there anything loony about their position on House of Lords?
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
Culture war features a lot on this site, in a pro ReformUK way! It features a lot in Conservative government position too!
Is there anything loony about their position on House of Lords?
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going
eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year
FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom
I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful
Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?
I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
“ I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. “.
Wow. 🤗
Please take this seriously, you could make money writing for Mills&Broom.
Or People’s Friend.
It’s not the first time you’ve done it Leon probably without even realising it.
I,never met my granny, she dies four years before I was born, but I know every year she had things printed in the Peoples Friend Year book.
One of the things published, taking the dogs and the grand kids up the hill to watch the summer solstice sunrise, your writing is nearly as good as hers. Seriously you ought to think about that.
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going
eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year
FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom
I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful
Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?
I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
“ I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. “.
Wow. 🤗
Please take this seriously, you could make money writing for Mills&Broom.
Or People’s Friend.
It’s not the first time you’ve done it Leon probably without even realising it.
I,never met my granny, she dies four years before I was born, but I know every year she had things printed in the Peoples Friend Year book.
One of the things published, taking the dogs and the grand kids up the hill to watch the summer solstice sunrise, your writing is nearly as good as hers. Seriously you ought to think about that.
Thankyou, you bring me much solace in my time of trials
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
Culture war features a lot on this site, in a pro ReformUK way! It features a lot in Conservative government position too!
Is there anything loony about their position on House of Lords?
No, but voting reform yes absolutely.
Voting reform so that bigger % of votes cast go straight into bin as no consequence is the Loony bit of all that?
Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going
eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year
FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom
I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful
Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?
I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
“ I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. “.
Wow. 🤗
Please take this seriously, you could make money writing for Mills&Broom.
Or People’s Friend.
It’s not the first time you’ve done it Leon probably without even realising it.
I,never met my granny, she dies four years before I was born, but I know every year she had things printed in the Peoples Friend Year book.
One of the things published, taking the dogs and the grand kids up the hill to watch the summer solstice sunrise, your writing is nearly as good as hers. Seriously you ought to think about that.
Thankyou, you bring me much solace in my time of trials
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Tory by 4,000 votes would be in line with my prediction. Sky News saying 3-5K
Majority last time was 19,000 on a 67% turnout. If the turnout is 40%, say, that would (if proportionately shared) in itself reduce the majority to 13,000. 3000-5000 is pretty weak - I think less than your 44-28 prediction? But it's hard to calculate with the RefUK unknown.
Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going
eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year
FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom
I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful
Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?
I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
Culture war features a lot on this site, in a pro ReformUK way! It features a lot in Conservative government position too!
Is there anything loony about their position on House of Lords?
No, but voting reform yes absolutely.
Voting reform so that bigger % of votes cast go straight into bin as no consequence is the Loony bit of all that?
Oops. I mean the current system bins too many honest votes. A top up system does so many other countries like Germany no harm.
You can tell I vote libdem because I really believe in this, what you call Reforms only loony policy 🙂
Having big party players like leaders and cabinets have to have a constituency is counter to the constituency idea as when will they have time to do that properly? You really wouldn’t want them not running country to do that. Constituency’s, maybe multi member, and party have lists for top up based on their % of vote.
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Definitely a ward inviting tactical voting - the LibDems were just 17 behind the Tories, with Labour well back on 92 votes. A key subtext of the two Parly by-elections is how far tactical voting actually happens.
Seems like the Islamic shopping centre in Romford has not been popular with locals. Nasty stuff, but are shop workers ‘key workers’? I thought that applied to teachers, nurses etc
Those boosted with Pfizer after two doses of AstraZeneca had antibody levels a month later nearly 25 times higher than controls.
Wow 🤯
As someone who has had two doses of AstraZeneca (getting my first just days before they said not to give it to under 40s) I'm very glad they're extending boosters to under-40s now.
Tory by 4,000 votes would be in line with my prediction. Sky News saying 3-5K
Majority last time was 19,000 on a 67% turnout. If the turnout is 40%, say, that would (if proportionately shared) in itself reduce the majority to 13,000. 3000-5000 is pretty weak - I think less than your 44-28 prediction? But it's hard to calculate with the RefUK unknown.
Those boosted with Pfizer after two doses of AstraZeneca had antibody levels a month later nearly 25 times higher than controls.
Wow 🤯
As someone who has had two doses of AstraZeneca (getting my first just days before they said not to give it to under 40s) I'm very glad they're extending boosters to under-40s now.
They really should have gone mix and match for the booster.
Those boosted with Pfizer after two doses of AstraZeneca had antibody levels a month later nearly 25 times higher than controls.
Wow 🤯
As someone who has had two doses of AstraZeneca (getting my first just days before they said not to give it to under 40s) I'm very glad they're extending boosters to under-40s now.
Yes, hope you recover soon, Leon - sounds horrible. One of my team has been completely knocked out by a throat bug - signed off for 10 days so far.
It could of course be nothing - as in, nothing as “interesting” as Omicron. I’ve definitely got some virus but we’ve all been so virus-avoidant for 2 years i guess we are now ultra-susceptible to any bug going
eg I haven’t had a cold since 2019. And I normally get the standard 2-3 a year
FWIW right now I just feel wretchedly tired (again) but also bored and frustrated. I’m in one of the most beautiful corners of Britain and I’m stuck in bed. Perhaps that is a good sign. Boredom
I can also hear the River Monnow right outside my bedroom window, under the birches: rushing in her eagerness, down from the russet hills, like a young girl singing as she runs to a lover. Beautiful
Why is the sound of water so soothing to the soul?
I remember visiting a 9th century lunatic asylum in Damascus (one of the first in the world). Every group of cells surrounded a sunlit courtyard with a lovely fountain, and runnels of water. The guide said that early Islamic doctors thought that the music of moving water did more for mental health than anything else
Lovely. One of the pleasantest nights of my life was in Gradara on the Adriatic - I'd been invited to stay for a long weekend to give talks at a board gaming event in the nearby castle, as my first book had just come out in Italian. I took a friend and we got a room in a hotel facing a beach, illuminated faintly by a crescent moon. We were soothed to sleep by the rolling tide.
The castle's fun too - was owned by a family through the middle ages and included a small torture room, apparently something that every des res in those days liked to have to discourage undesirable visitors.
See the sights, hear the sounds, smell the stenches of this classic British comic duo doing their timeless turn, "How By Must You Be to Win a By-Election? Or What the Psephologist Said".
Tory by 4,000 votes would be in line with my prediction. Sky News saying 3-5K
Majority last time was 19,000 on a 67% turnout. If the turnout is 40%, say, that would (if proportionately shared) in itself reduce the majority to 13,000. 3000-5000 is pretty weak - I think less than your 44-28 prediction? But it's hard to calculate with the RefUK unknown.
My prediction was 16% lead on a 38% turnout which would be about 4,000 if my maths is correct.
Clearly an independent had taken a lot of Tory votes there previously.
It's actually the Green who didn't stand this time. I follow these but I don't take any one, or even any one evening very seriously at all. Local factors blah, blah. But, over time, patterns emerge. The prevailing pattern is that UNS will be utterly useless next time. The Tories are holding up, and even advancing, in enough places to make a majority highly probable. With a few shocking gains, and more equally shocking losses along the way. Which is peculiar, as we are all supposed to be more interconnected than ever.
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
I'm not sure that's right. The Tories finally lost my vote over the NI hike to pay for rich oldies in the SE, although their excessively slow approach to Covid unlocking wasn't doing them any favours in my opinion either (they had almost won back that lost ground by remaining sane against the screaming hordes of zero Covid loons before the latest stupid mask wearing panic).
I can't be the only one for whom the Tory decision to become the party of massive tax and spend is the final straw.
I had a feeling the previous turnout predictions might be a touch optimistic.
Yes, confirmed now. 21788 votes cast. If our mean guesses (46/30/13) were right, that would mean Con 10118 Lab 6560 Ref 2832
- majority of 3600, fits with what we heard earlier from the Tory camp, which would be an 8% swing. But they may habve been playing the expectations game.
Wisdom of crowds department: our mean prediction based on 8 posts with detailed numbers is
Con 46 (-18) Lab 30 (+6) Ref 11 (+11) LD 4 (=) Gr 3 (=) Turnout 37%
I reckon Cons would be publicly satisfied but uneasy about the rise of Ref, Lab would note the 12% swing but feel privately meh, Ref would be thrilled, everyone else would shrug. (After a couple of days, we'd all shrug.)
Using the turnout figure of 34% / 21,788 gives roughly:
Richard Vernalls @rvernallsPA · 1h Hat tip to fellow journalist @CarlJackson_LDR@birmingham_live who, out of all the press covering the trial, logged more hours than any other reporter, inc. sitting through each of Tustin’s harrowing recordings. He helped give Arthur back a voice, making sure his truth was told:
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
I'm not sure that's right. The Tories finally lost my vote over the NI hike to pay for rich oldies in the SE, although their excessively slow approach to Covid unlocking wasn't doing them any favours in my opinion either (they had almost won back that lost ground by remaining sane against the screaming hordes of zero Covid loons before the latest stupid mask wearing panic).
I can't be the only one for whom the Tory decision to become the party of massive tax and spend is the final straw.
I left the Tories over that too, as did from memory Casino, Max and Robert. It went down very badly on this site.
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
Isn't that almost exactly the same phrase David Cameron used to describe Nigel Farage, UKIP, and his Brexit ambitions about 10 years ago?
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
Isn't that almost exactly the same phrase David Cameron used to describe Nigel Farage, UKIP, and his Brexit ambitions about 10 years ago?
Does (or rather does not) low turnout OB&S versus B&S 47.5% and C&A 52%, suggest that sizable share of normal Tory vote has NOT turned out today?
Definitely. Huge numbers of Tory voters have decided they couldn't be bothered to vote, assuming their party would scrape home whatever happens.
Alternatively, previous Conservative voters have been disenchanted with the incompetence, corruption and dithering of Mr Johnson's version of a Conservative government. They want none of it.
Does (or rather does not) low turnout OB&S versus B&S 47.5% and C&A 52%, suggest that sizable share of normal Tory vote has NOT turned out today?
Possibly - although could also argue that time of year and increased worry about Covid would both point to lower turnout across supporters of all parties.
Does (or rather does not) low turnout OB&S versus B&S 47.5% and C&A 52%, suggest that sizable share of normal Tory vote has NOT turned out today?
Definitely. Huge numbers of Tory voters have decided they couldn't be bothered to vote, assuming their party would scrape home whatever happens.
Alternatively, previous Conservative voters have been disenchanted with the incompetence, corruption and dithering of Mr Johnson's version of a Conservative government. They want none of it.
You keep flogging that dead horse.
Say it often enough, and you might even convince yourself its true.
Does (or rather does not) low turnout OB&S versus B&S 47.5% and C&A 52%, suggest that sizable share of normal Tory vote has NOT turned out today?
Definitely. Huge numbers of Tory voters have decided they couldn't be bothered to vote, assuming their party would scrape home whatever happens.
Alternatively, previous Conservative voters have been disenchanted with the incompetence, corruption and dithering of Mr Johnson's version of a Conservative government. They want none of it.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-P30s7c1d0
Friday’s TIMES: “Jab results boost hopes of beating Omicron” #TomorrowsPapersToday https://t.co/QlyrAPqBcG
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1466537323869487107?t=siDaxp2l-wVnBUwF0mjfMw&s=19
Is there anything loony about their position on House of Lords?
Upon looking it up…
“ someone who does a job that is important for society, for example, a nurse, teacher, or police officer:”
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/key-worker
Hard for shops to open without workers.
I,never met my granny, she dies four years before I was born, but I know every year she had things printed in the Peoples Friend Year book.
One of the things published, taking the dogs and the grand kids up the hill to watch the summer solstice sunrise, your writing is nearly as good as hers. Seriously you ought to think about that.
Hope you feel better soon and don’t get too ill.
https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/grammar-girl
Don’t go back to the other thread, just stay on this one now.
CON: 45.0% (-26.3)
LDEM: 40.9% (+40.9)
LAB: 12.2% (-16.5)
WPGB: 1.9% (+1.9)
Conservative HOLD.
From Tories.
If teenage mutant ninja covid can eaaily reinfect, especially the unvaxxed, the US are in for another world of hurt.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/02/covid-booster-shots-significantly-strengthen-immunity-trial-finds
Seriously.
You can tell I vote libdem because I really believe in this, what you call Reforms only loony policy 🙂
Having big party players like leaders and cabinets have to have a constituency is counter to the constituency idea as when will they have time to do that properly? You really wouldn’t want them not running country to do that. Constituency’s, maybe multi member, and party have lists for top up based on their % of vote.
It’s a no brainier not loony.
CON: 55.2% (+25.9)
LDEM: 37.0% (-11.1)
LAB: 7.8% (-0.2)
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
No Grn (-14.6) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,013
Upper Lune Valley (Lancaster) by-election result:
LDEM: 63.1% (+19.1)
CON: 29.6% (-16.3)
GRN: 3.9% (+3.9)
LAB: 3.4% (-6.7)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative
Stalham (North Norfolk) by-election result:
CON: 55.2% (+25.9)
LDEM: 37.0% (-11.1)
LAB: 7.8% (-0.2)
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Wow 🤯
As someone who has had two doses of AstraZeneca (getting my first just days before they said not to give it to under 40s) I'm very glad they're extending boosters to under-40s now.
‘Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election ratings:
CON:
Poor result- Below 50%
Uncomfortable result- 50-55%
Acceptable result- 55%+
LAB:
Poor result- Below 25%
Fair result- 25-30%
Strong result- 30%+
REF:
Poor result- Around 5% or below
Fair result- 10%
Strong result- 15%+’
https://twitter.com/willgeorgelloyd/status/1466319518620389379?s=21
Turnout 26k (40%)
Con, 13k (50%)
Lab, 8k (30%)
Ref, 2.6k (10%)
Majority 5k
Poor result: Losing.
Good result: Winning.
Have they ever polled lower in a council election? Down from 10% last time
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1466558695131828227
Sorry to offend you, I know you don’t like the Tories either
Good evening PB!
The castle's fun too - was owned by a family through the middle ages and included a small torture room, apparently something that every des res in those days liked to have to discourage undesirable visitors.
See the sights, hear the sounds, smell the stenches of this classic British comic duo doing their timeless turn, "How By Must You Be to Win a By-Election? Or What the Psephologist Said".
Lab 7000
My prediction
I follow these but I don't take any one, or even any one evening very seriously at all. Local factors blah, blah.
But, over time, patterns emerge. The prevailing pattern is that UNS will be utterly useless next time. The Tories are holding up, and even advancing, in enough places to make a majority highly probable. With a few shocking gains, and more equally shocking losses along the way.
Which is peculiar, as we are all supposed to be more interconnected than ever.
The winner is either CON. Or not CON.
Probably CON by a small margin.
Goodnight 👍
I can't be the only one for whom the Tory decision to become the party of massive tax and spend is the final straw.
Con 10118
Lab 6560
Ref 2832
- majority of 3600, fits with what we heard earlier from the Tory camp, which would be an 8% swing. But they may habve been playing the expectations game.
If Labour managed to turnout all their 2019 voters they'd be on 49.7% of the vote... which would surprise most of us.
Con 10,000
Lab 6,500
Ref 2,400
LD 870
Gr 650
Tory maj 3,500
Trebled their councillors in one night.
Conservatives fall to FOURTH.
That poor child. RIP.
However are you going to Refuk?
I was 35 years old.
Hardly sounds like Labour are confident.
Say it often enough, and you might even convince yourself its true.
Goodnight everyone.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448