One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
I'm not sure that's right. The Tories finally lost my vote over the NI hike to pay for rich oldies in the SE, although their excessively slow approach to Covid unlocking wasn't doing them any favours in my opinion either (they had almost won back that lost ground by remaining sane against the screaming hordes of zero Covid loons before the latest stupid mask wearing panic).
I can't be the only one for whom the Tory decision to become the party of massive tax and spend is the final straw.
I left the Tories over that too, as did from memory Casino, Max and Robert. It went down very badly on this site.
However are you going to Refuk?
One has to both hit them where it hurts and make a point. A serious loss of votes to a party to their right is the only language they appear to understand.-that's pretty much the only reason we are now out of the EU for instance.
I don't agree with all Refuk's policy platform, but I agree with the bulk of it - less government, less taxation, less spending. On the social stuff, I'm somewhere between Social Conservative and Libertarian - I'm a social conservative in what I believe, but I'm not particularly bothered about letting others do whatever they like, providing they don't expect me to approve of it (I don't expect them to approve of me either - just to leave me alone). There are some exceptions to this - eg I care very strongly about abortion, because that's not something just between consenting adults, but instead is where one person is deciding their life or lifestyle is worth so much more than anothers, it's OK for them to take the others life, but mostly I'm of the view that people should be allowed to do what they like so long as they don't do it in the street and frighten the horses.
That's mostly an OK fit with Refuk - it's certainly better than the fit with the current Tories or Lib Dems (Hell would have frozen over long before I contemplated voting Labour)
One thing we can all agree on, the Conservatives mustn’t be lazy about ReformUK if it proves they were effective at siphoning voters away from the Conservatives. If you read the Telegraph or Mail, reform party is closer to your instincts than the muddled mess the Conservatives offering under Boris?
What I mean is, in safe places like this a bit of siphoning won’t make a big difference on general Election Day, but there’s lots of places it will.
How will a slick Reform campaign go in the red wall, where Brexit voters have only voted Conservative once, and Boris promise breaking bungling Peppa Pig of a government was the result? What I mean is, put Conservative and Reform numbers together and it’s a clear win in places Labour retake the seat.
It seems clear in my head but does it make sense?
What do you think HYUFD
😂
Refuk are a joke for fruitcake, nuts and loons. A certain someone would fit in perfectly.
Refuk's "standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid party" may work in a Dunny-on-the-Wold by-election but they're absolute nobodies for a General Election.
standing in the back, dressed stupidly, and looking stupid
Aren’t you confusing them with the Loony’s?
Reform are new party who can’t be called UKIP because UKIP won the war and are now carrying on battling the Conservative Party from the right to shape the right of centre agenda in this country, and if successful as UKIP at pressuring the Conservatives party they will again influence Conservative party policy and thinking.
They were very slick here. Their appeal neatly bullet pointed in attractive populist policy slogans.
Are you trying to say there's a difference between Refuk and Loony's?
I apologise. That's offensive to the Loony's.
Okay. Understand you have strong feelings that lever, so getting granola flagging up the lonny bits from their manifesto should be easy to you.
Here you are.
Reform our Economy: to succeed, we must become a low tax, smartly regulated, high growth economy. Faster growth is the only way to better wages and more tax revenues to invest in better healthcare and other public services. Our bold economic vision frees up over 6 million people from paying income tax and over 1.2 million small businesses/self employed from paying corporation tax. We would also remove a raft of stifling taxes. This will generate much faster growth.
Reform our Institutions: major change is needed to the bodies that impact on our lives, the unelected cronyism of the House of Lords, the outdated civil service, the bloated BBC. Reform is essential to our voting system so it is fairer, more representative; the two party system embeds the status quo and prevents real change. We must return all our liberties to the people. We must preserve freedom of speech. We must control our borders properly. We must protect our proud heritage from the woke folk and celebrate our nation’s incredible successes.
We are growing fast, and standing hundreds of candidates in the forthcoming elections.
The economic comments are sensible but lets be honest next to nobody is voting for them for economics.
But banging on about woke and heritage etc is just a deranged attempt to import American culture wars and that's all they ever really speak about.
I'm not sure that's right. The Tories finally lost my vote over the NI hike to pay for rich oldies in the SE, although their excessively slow approach to Covid unlocking wasn't doing them any favours in my opinion either (they had almost won back that lost ground by remaining sane against the screaming hordes of zero Covid loons before the latest stupid mask wearing panic).
I can't be the only one for whom the Tory decision to become the party of massive tax and spend is the final straw.
I left the Tories over that too, as did from memory Casino, Max and Robert. It went down very badly on this site.
However are you going to Refuk?
Will the last Tory on PB please remember to turn off the lights...
That's a BAD turnout. Should be alright for Tories tonight. Bodes ill for Shrophire North - real stay at home issues.
34% is actually about right, add in a safe seat in December in the run up to Xmas with people facing new covid I thinlk its pretty respectable.
Less than half of GE turnout is dire. Hartlepool and Batley got far higher turnouts, and they are lower turnout seats at a GE. Chesham - which is a relevant benchmark for Shropshire North - was above 50%.
Does (or rather does not) low turnout OB&S versus B&S 47.5% and C&A 52%, suggest that sizable share of normal Tory vote has NOT turned out today?
Or it suggests that it's a cold day and the outcome isn't in doubt.
Cold but quite pleasant day. And lots of seats which weren't in doubt had good turnouts in December 2019, which didn't feature notably unseasonable weather. It may be that the apathy affects other parties too, but it has to be said that's poor and relevant to Shropshire North.
That's a BAD turnout. Should be alright for Tories tonight. Bodes ill for Shrophire North - real stay at home issues.
34% is actually about right, add in a safe seat in December in the run up to Xmas with people facing new covid I thinlk its pretty respectable.
Less than half of GE turnout is dire. Hartlepool and Batley got far higher turnouts, and they are lower turnout seats at a GE. Chesham - which is a relevant benchmark for Shropshire North - was above 50%.
Less than 25% I would argue is dire..... Batley & Spen /Hartlepool were in the summer months (long sunny days for canvassing and actually going to vote) at a time when covid was on the back foot - and both were seen as winnable by the 2 main parties. I think its ok for a freezing cold December day when the seat is not winnable.
If that proves correct, then the Tories have done better than we expected, just 9 points down on last time (we were all in the 40-50 range) and RefUK have done worse, with Foxy coming closest with a guess of 8%. Labour are exactly as we predicted, about 7 points up on last time.
What a surprise - Reform way below expectations of a group of PB posters.
These PB posters are simply unable to comprehend that the vast majority of people do not see Covid restrictions as a party political issue.
The tiny majority who do see Covid restrictions as party political are massively over-represented amongst both posters on PB and political anoraks generally.
Reform has no chance whatsoever of making any headway.
One has to both hit them where it hurts and make a point. A serious loss of votes to a party to their right is the only language they appear to understand.-that's pretty much the only reason we are now out of the EU for instance.
I don't agree with all Refuk's policy platform, but I agree with the bulk of it - less government, less taxation, less spending.
On the social stuff, I'm somewhere between Social Conservative and Libertarian - I'm a social conservative in what I believe, but I'm not particularly bothered about letting others do whatever they like, providing they don't expect me to approve of it (I don't expect them to approve of me either - just to leave me alone). There are some exceptions to this - eg I care very strongly about abortion, because that's not something just between consenting adults, but instead is where one person is deciding their life or lifestyle is worth so much more than anothers, it's OK for them to take the others life, but mostly I'm of the view that people should be allowed to do what they like so long as they don't do it in the street and frighten the horses.
That's mostly an OK fit with Refuk - it's certainly better than the fit with the current Tories or Lib Dems (Hell would have frozen over long before I contemplated voting Labour)
I have a big problem with Reform because they - like so many others - completely fails to understand the problems of the UK, instead focusing on the UK's symptoms.
Let's start with the big on. The UK has an ageing population, and the government has made incredibly generous promises to people (the 'triple lock') as far as pensions. Even if the ratio of retirees to remain stable, the triple lock guarantees that pensions payments rise as a percentage of GDP. But the ratio of workers to retirees is not remaining stable, it's worsening. So, for the foreseeable future, the amount of money taken in taxes to pay pensions is going to rise.
And the there's healthcare. Whether you think the UK's system is good, bad or indifferent, the reality is that healthcare faces exactly the same pressures as pensions: more old people demanding more expensive healthcare every year. I've posted the numbers before, but between 1997 and 2016/7, the 'fixed' portion of government spending (the NHS plus pensions) has risen from about 30% to 50%. So, the complaints about Tory 'austerity' are true, in that all other government spending - on the armed forces, on infrastructure, etc. - is being squeezed by the relentless ageing of the country.
And the NI decision was a byproduct of this. The government decided to make the workers pay, not their client vote, the retirees.
But that's not the only problem with the UK. There's a class of people - mostly Tory voters - who came of age between 1970 and 1995. These people won the lottery: they bought houses and apartments (especially if they were in the South) that went up 20x. But that fucked the UK in another way. That meant these people don't have any savings other than their property. (Oh yeah, and because this group were so well off with their property winnings, they borrowed from abroad to buy imported goods, meaning the UK's has ended up from (in 1997) a country that was 'in the black' to the tune of 40% of GDP, to one that is now in debt to the world. We now need to run a trade surplus of 2% of GDP to manage a current account balance of zero.
So, tomorrows workers are going to be paying off the debts incurred by today's comfortable retirees.
Oh, but it gets worse. For some reason, all discussion in the UK about education focuses on grammar schools. But the UK doesn't have a problem producing intelligent, employable graduates at the top end. It has a problem in that it doesn't produce people with employable skills for the other two thirds of the population.
Look at Germany or Switzerland, they have had exactly the same free movement of labour from Eastern Europe as the UK, but wages growth at the low end has exceeded that of graduates. Why? Because they have excellent vocational training schemes that mean that those who leave school and don't go to University have the skills that industry needs.
Oh yeah, and then we have a tax and benefits system that encourages people not to work. If you tax someone at 70% to get up from their couch, they're going to stay on their couch. And if they do that, their skills atrophy. If you're a business owner, someone out of work for two years is not the person you want to hire. And we've created a monster of a tax and benefits system that does just that.
Instead, there's a wittering on - from Reform and others - about low regulation and smart regulation. I've founded companies in the UK, in Europe, and in the US. The worst regulatory environment - by far - is California. It isn't even close.
There are lots of things the UK can do. These aren't even very complex. We can borrow the French tax system regarding family units and tax allowances. We can implement the Germany vocational educational system. We can keep pushing back the retirement age (and be a bit more honest about the fact we're all going to be working longer). And we can remove the insane tax and benefits traps that disinentivise working.
But the shit that Reform comes out with falls far short of that. There's this belief that if you blow your nationalist horn loud enough, then all will be well. Sorry folks, that's not true. Every day you don't solve these problems is a day the UK's debt to the rest of the world increases while people sit on their sofas, being paid not to work, and ordering imported crap.
What a surprise - Reform way below expectations of a group of PB posters.
These PB posters are simply unable to comprehend that the vast majority of people do not see Covid restrictions as a party political issue.
The tiny majority who do see Covid restrictions as party political are massively over-represented amongst both posters on PB and political anoraks generally.
Reform has no chance whatsoever of making any headway.
Why are you convinced that Covid restrictions were an important aspect of ReformUK's prospects at this by-election?
Lib Dem vote may have collapsed to Labour, tactical voting in place once again?
Yes, I think so too. Labour did a bit better than many here expected, and the Tories only modestly better but RefUK didn't really hit the levels we were expecting. Gardenwalker came closest, I think, with his prediction 50/30/11 vs 51/31/7 in reality. I wasn't too far off with 48/32/11. A mildly uncomfortable result for the Tories, but nothing we'll remember for very long.
But you know my issue with it? He voted for Brexit which was basically the Reform prospectus of growth through deregulation, louder nationalism, and making the demographic issue worse by blocking skilled immigration.
I would be very surprised if it’s anything other than a Tory hold with a reduced majority. Basically meaningless. The usual suspects will spin this of course to support whatever axe they have to grind. But 🤷♀️
@rcs1000 missed two further ills: a deep-seated aversion against infrastructure investment by government and gross over-centralisation at Westminster. Both contribute to piss-poor productivity performance compared to our peers.
Comments
I don't agree with all Refuk's policy platform, but I agree with the bulk of it - less government, less taxation, less spending.
On the social stuff, I'm somewhere between Social Conservative and Libertarian - I'm a social conservative in what I believe, but I'm not particularly bothered about letting others do whatever they like, providing they don't expect me to approve of it (I don't expect them to approve of me either - just to leave me alone). There are some exceptions to this - eg I care very strongly about abortion, because that's not something just between consenting adults, but instead is where one person is deciding their life or lifestyle is worth so much more than anothers, it's OK for them to take the others life, but mostly I'm of the view that people should be allowed to do what they like so long as they don't do it in the street and frighten the horses.
That's mostly an OK fit with Refuk - it's certainly better than the fit with the current Tories or Lib Dems (Hell would have frozen over long before I contemplated voting Labour)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OED7AXzTPRA
Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election result:
CON HOLD
Tories: 11189
Labour: 6711
Lib Dem: 647
Reform: 1432
Majority: 4,478
Lab 6,711
Reform 1,432
Green 830
LD 647
ED 271
UKIP 184
Heritage 116
CPA 108
Loony 94
Con maj 4.478
CON: 51.5% (-13.1)
LAB: 30.9% (+7.4)
REFUK: 6.6% (+6.6)
GRN: 3.8% (+0.6)
LDEM: 3.0% (-5.3)
Conservative HOLD.
Labour and Tories within MoE of the predictor
These PB posters are simply unable to comprehend that the vast majority of people do not see Covid restrictions as a party political issue.
The tiny majority who do see Covid restrictions as party political are massively over-represented amongst both posters on PB and political anoraks generally.
Reform has no chance whatsoever of making any headway.
Let's start with the big on. The UK has an ageing population, and the government has made incredibly generous promises to people (the 'triple lock') as far as pensions. Even if the ratio of retirees to remain stable, the triple lock guarantees that pensions payments rise as a percentage of GDP. But the ratio of workers to retirees is not remaining stable, it's worsening. So, for the foreseeable future, the amount of money taken in taxes to pay pensions is going to rise.
And the there's healthcare. Whether you think the UK's system is good, bad or indifferent, the reality is that healthcare faces exactly the same pressures as pensions: more old people demanding more expensive healthcare every year. I've posted the numbers before, but between 1997 and 2016/7, the 'fixed' portion of government spending (the NHS plus pensions) has risen from about 30% to 50%. So, the complaints about Tory 'austerity' are true, in that all other government spending - on the armed forces, on infrastructure, etc. - is being squeezed by the relentless ageing of the country.
And the NI decision was a byproduct of this. The government decided to make the workers pay, not their client vote, the retirees.
But that's not the only problem with the UK. There's a class of people - mostly Tory voters - who came of age between 1970 and 1995. These people won the lottery: they bought houses and apartments (especially if they were in the South) that went up 20x. But that fucked the UK in another way. That meant these people don't have any savings other than their property. (Oh yeah, and because this group were so well off with their property winnings, they borrowed from abroad to buy imported goods, meaning the UK's has ended up from (in 1997) a country that was 'in the black' to the tune of 40% of GDP, to one that is now in debt to the world. We now need to run a trade surplus of 2% of GDP to manage a current account balance of zero.
So, tomorrows workers are going to be paying off the debts incurred by today's comfortable retirees.
contd...
Look at Germany or Switzerland, they have had exactly the same free movement of labour from Eastern Europe as the UK, but wages growth at the low end has exceeded that of graduates. Why? Because they have excellent vocational training schemes that mean that those who leave school and don't go to University have the skills that industry needs.
Oh yeah, and then we have a tax and benefits system that encourages people not to work. If you tax someone at 70% to get up from their couch, they're going to stay on their couch. And if they do that, their skills atrophy. If you're a business owner, someone out of work for two years is not the person you want to hire. And we've created a monster of a tax and benefits system that does just that.
Instead, there's a wittering on - from Reform and others - about low regulation and smart regulation. I've founded companies in the UK, in Europe, and in the US. The worst regulatory environment - by far - is California. It isn't even close.
There are lots of things the UK can do. These aren't even very complex. We can borrow the French tax system regarding family units and tax allowances. We can implement the Germany vocational educational system. We can keep pushing back the retirement age (and be a bit more honest about the fact we're all going to be working longer). And we can remove the insane tax and benefits traps that disinentivise working.
But the shit that Reform comes out with falls far short of that. There's this belief that if you blow your nationalist horn loud enough, then all will be well. Sorry folks, that's not true. Every day you don't solve these problems is a day the UK's debt to the rest of the world increases while people sit on their sofas, being paid not to work, and ordering imported crap.
Was actually quite close
Con 1.44 / 1.51
LD 2.64 / 3.3
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.190523448
- New cases: 1,042
- Average: 372 (+145)
- Positivity rate: 12.6% (+1)
- In hospital: 80 (+28)
- In ICU: 3 (-)
- New deaths: 0
- Average: 0 (-)
If you think getting 6k votes instead of 11k is some kind of ringing endorsement of SKS you are beyond help.
It's a mid term by election and Labour as only realistic challengers can't even get their 2019 vote out let alone come close to winning.
Watch in a fortnight for the swing the LDs achieve as a realistic comparator of how the 2 parties are fairing.
Boris is home and hosed with SKS as an opponent come a GE
Over 14000 Labour votes in 2017
SKS less than 7,000 in 2021
Terrible result.
Great post(s)
Rather wasted @ 2am, though!
But you know my issue with it? He voted for Brexit which was basically the Reform prospectus of growth through deregulation, louder nationalism, and making the demographic issue worse by blocking skilled immigration.