Old Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop? – politicalbetting.com
Old Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop? – politicalbetting.com
The message from the betting markets is that punters are staying with the Tories to hold onto Old Bexley and Sidcup in the first of the party’s two December by-election defences.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The pharma people all said their internal modelling agreed with the LSHTM model on hospitalisations across Europe. They think Omicron will be very difficult in nations that suppressed the delta exit wave, all three academics said that they disagreed with the government's initial stance of unlock hard in July, but all have been won over by the data.
The big one - vaccine efficacy dilution. Much more mixed, but overall confidence from the pharma people that the vaccines will work to a good enough degree to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The AZ person said that the UK will benefit from doing the majority of over 50s with two AZ doses and a Moderna/Pfizer booster. Their own study shows it gives the best broad spectrum t-cell and b-cell response which won't prevent any infections but will significantly reduce infection severity to the point that they said even with immune escape those people with 2x AZ and 1x Moderna/Pfizer have little to worry about. The table tended to agree that AZ/AZ/Moderna is probably the best combination. Someone suggested that the government should bring AZ back for 30+ booster shots. Another said that the WHO should make the standard three shot course mRNA/AZ/mRNA and that everyone in the UK who had three mRNA doses should be given the option of an AZ booster in the new year for the t/b-cell immunity that mRNA vaccines don't provide to as high a degree.
More generally - the group agreed that Chris Whitty was right that every single person in the country will eventually get COVID. One said that the government lulled itself into a false sense of security with the 95% efficacy on three doses but Omicron proves that we will all get it, probably multiple times over the course of life. They said the thinking in government reflects that but the masks have probably been brought back to "purchase" an R reduction of ~0.1 for a couple of weeks just in case Omicron explodes among the unvaccinated young and unboosted old in the run up to Xmas. This person is probably closest to the government and they said the the way NPIs are now rated is almost like a budget, each one is rated with its R value reduction and it is put against the cost of implementing it from an economic and social perspective. Masks have a low economic and medium social cost but also a very low R reduction. Closing schools has got a very high economic and social cost and also a very high R reduction, lockdown is rated as the highest for costs but a bit less than closing schools for R reduction.
What the hell...
If I was doing an outside bet for next Tory leader, then I would look at - and don’t all laugh- Nadine Dorries.
Yes, mad as a box of frogs to many but there is a reason she has been brought into the Cabinet and that is because the Tories will fight the next GE on the culture wars - it’s the best way to keep the Red Wall voters together with traditional Home Counties Tories who may have been mixed on Brexit but aren’t keen that their kids are taught to switch genders at the drop of a hat.
It’s why I’m not a great backer of the view that either Sunak or Truss will be the next leader - they wouldn’t have the conviction nor would they come across as sincere in their views.
Also good to hear that I am AZ/AZ/Moderna and thus optimally jabbed, I shall sally forth tomorrow with renewed brio and vim, if not GRRR, vavavoom and spunk
» show previous quotes
It wasn't, Mulroney was a charismatic leader who won 2 landslides victories in 1984 and 1988. Indeed he was the most successful Canadian Conservative leader since WW2 and indeed still is, having won 2 majorities to Harper's 1.
Campbell however not only led the PCs to a landslide defeat she also enabled it to be so bad a defeat she lost most of her core vote to the Canadian Reform Party who overtook the PCs as the main party of the right, winning more votes and seats than the PCs did. >>
What I'm telling you, is that by 1993 Brian Mulroney was widely hated from coast to freaking coast. His charisma that had been so brilliant before was held AGAINST him.
HE was the problem, not his hapless, hopeless successor.
Strikes me that your argument is (somewhat) like blaming the collapse of the Third Reich on Admiral Dönitz. And crediting Hitler's triumphs while ignoring the backwash.
Plus of course Tory v Labour by elections tend to follow the national polls, only the LDs tend to attract by election swings bigger than the national polling average
However unjust it might be AZ now has the reputation of being a second-class vaccine compared to the mRNA vaccines.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799
He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way
They’re doing this precisely because the Tories refuse to give them any money to bail out.
Thought you were in favour of this or only when Boris does it? Like when he cut all the ticket machines
What odds we placing on that turning out to be?
....The move will now require a one-off payment of £13.6 million.... In July 2020, the capital's Mayor told London Assembly members that the cost would be £8 million.
So that's 25% of the savings down the tube before they have even started.
Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
I bet the very next mayor after Khan will reverse this move - of taking the London Assembly away from central London - and it will cost us all pointless ££££, because Khan is a clueless gimp
And here is a quote from earlier today.
-----
The deputy chairman of the JCVI said it was right to give over-18s a booster earlier than anticipated amid concerns over the new variant and the impact of winter pressures on the NHS.
Professor Anthony Harnden also backed reducing the interval between the second and booster doses. He told BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House: 'There's a very good, strong argument for raising the antibody level in the whole of the community.
'So, accelerating the booster programme, both by extending the age range and by reducing the interval between the second dose and the booster dose, will be a sensible strategy. Those adults 18-plus will have an offer of a booster earlier than we had previously envisaged.'
He ain't London. He will not be missed by Londoners
Boris therefore achieved more by being the only Tory ever elected to be Mayor of London than Khan did in simply holding the natural Labour majority there
And are adequate transport links in the works as well, which would also help the general vicinity?
Khan would be foolish to run again (and Labour would be foolish to allow him); if he does, the Tories have a REAL chance if they can find a good candidate, despite London being a highly Labour city
A sassy Tory woman, maybe BAME, would put Khan in great jeopardy. The first female London mayor
I have no skin in this game whatsoever not being a londoner, and if the savings estimate is right it justifies the move, but I'm always skeptical of vague assumptions that one move or project will 'unlock' a wider regeneration unless there's also a coherent plan and funds to back it up. The government's high street funds and other pots of monies are attempting to unlock potential with targeted plans, but it's a tossup if it will work.
The way the story is written up it sounds like its primarily about saving money and some 'hope' it will help regeneration.
Hope generally lets us down.
Apparently it is actually half the size of the purpose-built City Hall, so many GLA staff will have to continue working from home or from the London Fire Brigade headquarters in Union Street, Southwark.
But Khan is having gender neutral toilets put in, so thats a plus.
I would be more in favour if they said we can only fit half the number in, so we better downsize our bloated staffing, that has been expanding under Khan.
Your body is already primed to look for something that looks like Covid. And then something that look like Covid arrives and your immune system goes into overdrive.
Who was it who said the Tories have only two gears? Complacency and blind panic?
C+A was the former, this is the latter.
Easy hold. But no value in those prices. I'm out.
50% of the vote is what I'd be looking at as an over/under
1st AZ - Meh.
2nd AZ - Flu symptoms, a bit rough for 24 hours.
MDNA - Dead arm, mule kick to the kidneys, general malaise. Took about 10 hours to kick in. Not recovered yet.
Oddly Mrs Flatlander had a reaction to the 1st AZ but not the second. Same reaction to Moderna though.
Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
No reaction to jab 1, 2 or 3
Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.
Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.
But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.
"They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.
Is Emma Raducanu about to do a Tyson Fury?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10251699/Emma-Raducanu-wants-role-model-Lewis-Hamilton-win-Sports-Personality-Year-her.html
On the other hand, would they have come if the West had not decided to unseat Saddam? Do we get to leave a mess, rub our hands together, and say "well, not my fault"?
Nothing quite so fun as repeatedly waking up during the night only to sleep in when you're actually meant to get up.
If you had Pfizer-Pfizer, then you should (ideally) have had Moderna as your booster.
My wife came here on a basis of about 70% economic and about 30% life-is-dangerous-and-crap, for example.
The next morning it will be gone.
I’m green on any winner with Betfair, but have a side bet lay of Emma with @Philip_Thompson which makes me slightly red overall if she wins.
Sad news to hear this morning about Sir Frank Williams, one of the last remaining old-school privateers. God speed and fly high.
It’s convenient for the Emirates Airline and the DLR. there’s also a Tesco metro next door so Lunch is sorted.