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Old Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
imageOld Bexley & Sidcup: Another CON by-election flop? – politicalbetting.com

The message from the betting markets is that punters are staying with the Tories to hold onto Old Bexley and Sidcup in the first of the party’s two December by-election defences.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    isam said:

    Has anyone had a bad reaction to AZ jabs 1 or 2 AND the booster? Or is it only a one time thing?

    I have had a reaction to all 3 Moderna ones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    I am sure the government expects and is prepared to be celebrating a French success in many things.
  • I'm on Lab at 10 for Bexley.

    What the hell...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,869

    isam said:

    Has anyone had a bad reaction to AZ jabs 1 or 2 AND the booster? Or is it only a one time thing?

    I have had a reaction to all 3 Moderna ones.
    Wasn't Moderna supposed to be one shot? Can't see why you've had three if so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Tories will hold it IMO but with a disappointing share of the vote and a low number of votes due to a poor turnout (which isn't unexpected at this time of year).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rundown of how the table felt about the UK's virus situation. Almost all were very positive, one person wasn't, now an academic, the pharma people universally disagreed with that person's assessment. The other two academics were sympathetic to the position but overall still thought we were in a favourable place to maintain our current freedom level and roll back the masks again in a few weeks.

    The pharma people all said their internal modelling agreed with the LSHTM model on hospitalisations across Europe. They think Omicron will be very difficult in nations that suppressed the delta exit wave, all three academics said that they disagreed with the government's initial stance of unlock hard in July, but all have been won over by the data.

    The big one - vaccine efficacy dilution. Much more mixed, but overall confidence from the pharma people that the vaccines will work to a good enough degree to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The AZ person said that the UK will benefit from doing the majority of over 50s with two AZ doses and a Moderna/Pfizer booster. Their own study shows it gives the best broad spectrum t-cell and b-cell response which won't prevent any infections but will significantly reduce infection severity to the point that they said even with immune escape those people with 2x AZ and 1x Moderna/Pfizer have little to worry about. The table tended to agree that AZ/AZ/Moderna is probably the best combination. Someone suggested that the government should bring AZ back for 30+ booster shots. Another said that the WHO should make the standard three shot course mRNA/AZ/mRNA and that everyone in the UK who had three mRNA doses should be given the option of an AZ booster in the new year for the t/b-cell immunity that mRNA vaccines don't provide to as high a degree.

    More generally - the group agreed that Chris Whitty was right that every single person in the country will eventually get COVID. One said that the government lulled itself into a false sense of security with the 95% efficacy on three doses but Omicron proves that we will all get it, probably multiple times over the course of life. They said the thinking in government reflects that but the masks have probably been brought back to "purchase" an R reduction of ~0.1 for a couple of weeks just in case Omicron explodes among the unvaccinated young and unboosted old in the run up to Xmas. This person is probably closest to the government and he said the the way NPIs are now rated is almost like a budget, each one is rated with its R value reduction and it is put against the cost of implementing it from an economic and social perspective. Masks have a low economic and medium social cost but also a very low R reduction. Closing schools has got a very high economic and social cost and also a very high R reduction, lockdown is rated as the highest for costs but a bit less than closing schools for R reduction.

    Invaluable, and thanks again

    Were there any opinions on the Reinfection issue? That's one of my primary worries, particularly re the UK
    No worries, yes a few of them said that as the virus mutates we will all get it again and again but with each reinfection the severity would go down. One pointed out that this is what scientists are referring to with viruses becoming less deadly over time, it isn't that the viruses themselves become less deadly, it's that we get better at fighting them off as our immune systems are trained up on previous versions. They said it's like using an iPhone, when it first came out it was really confusing for people, some features weren't understood and it was a big change from using a Nokia, then the next version came out and it was different but similar enough so we all got used to it faster and so on until we're now at version 13 and it's not very special at all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Omnium said:

    isam said:

    Has anyone had a bad reaction to AZ jabs 1 or 2 AND the booster? Or is it only a one time thing?

    I have had a reaction to all 3 Moderna ones.
    Wasn't Moderna supposed to be one shot? Can't see why you've had three if so.
    No Moderna is the zupped up Pfizer. Basically a bigger shot of mRNA than Pfizer, but still 2 doses as standard. J&J was supposed to be the one shot, but it isn't effective enough with a single shot.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Many thanks to MaxPB for the Covid update.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    FPT

    If I was doing an outside bet for next Tory leader, then I would look at - and don’t all laugh- Nadine Dorries.

    Yes, mad as a box of frogs to many but there is a reason she has been brought into the Cabinet and that is because the Tories will fight the next GE on the culture wars - it’s the best way to keep the Red Wall voters together with traditional Home Counties Tories who may have been mixed on Brexit but aren’t keen that their kids are taught to switch genders at the drop of a hat.

    It’s why I’m not a great backer of the view that either Sunak or Truss will be the next leader - they wouldn’t have the conviction nor would they come across as sincere in their views.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 4,253
    Cheers if et be update Max, very useful.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rundown of how the table felt about the UK's virus situation. Almost all were very positive, one person wasn't, now an academic, the pharma people universally disagreed with that person's assessment. The other two academics were sympathetic to the position but overall still thought we were in a favourable place to maintain our current freedom level and roll back the masks again in a few weeks.

    The pharma people all said their internal modelling agreed with the LSHTM model on hospitalisations across Europe. They think Omicron will be very difficult in nations that suppressed the delta exit wave, all three academics said that they disagreed with the government's initial stance of unlock hard in July, but all have been won over by the data.

    The big one - vaccine efficacy dilution. Much more mixed, but overall confidence from the pharma people that the vaccines will work to a good enough degree to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The AZ person said that the UK will benefit from doing the majority of over 50s with two AZ doses and a Moderna/Pfizer booster. Their own study shows it gives the best broad spectrum t-cell and b-cell response which won't prevent any infections but will significantly reduce infection severity to the point that they said even with immune escape those people with 2x AZ and 1x Moderna/Pfizer have little to worry about. The table tended to agree that AZ/AZ/Moderna is probably the best combination. Someone suggested that the government should bring AZ back for 30+ booster shots. Another said that the WHO should make the standard three shot course mRNA/AZ/mRNA and that everyone in the UK who had three mRNA doses should be given the option of an AZ booster in the new year for the t/b-cell immunity that mRNA vaccines don't provide to as high a degree.

    More generally - the group agreed that Chris Whitty was right that every single person in the country will eventually get COVID. One said that the government lulled itself into a false sense of security with the 95% efficacy on three doses but Omicron proves that we will all get it, probably multiple times over the course of life. They said the thinking in government reflects that but the masks have probably been brought back to "purchase" an R reduction of ~0.1 for a couple of weeks just in case Omicron explodes among the unvaccinated young and unboosted old in the run up to Xmas. This person is probably closest to the government and he said the the way NPIs are now rated is almost like a budget, each one is rated with its R value reduction and it is put against the cost of implementing it from an economic and social perspective. Masks have a low economic and medium social cost but also a very low R reduction. Closing schools has got a very high economic and social cost and also a very high R reduction, lockdown is rated as the highest for costs but a bit less than closing schools for R reduction.

    Invaluable, and thanks again

    Were there any opinions on the Reinfection issue? That's one of my primary worries, particularly re the UK
    No worries, yes a few of them said that as the virus mutates we will all get it again and again but with each reinfection the severity would go down. One pointed out that this is what scientists are referring to with viruses becoming less deadly over time, it isn't that the viruses themselves become less deadly, it's that we get better at fighting them off as our immune systems are trained up on previous versions. They said it's like using an iPhone, when it first came out it was really confusing for people, some features weren't understood and it was a big change from using a Nokia, then the next version came out and it was different but similar enough so we all got used to it faster and so on until we're now at version 13 and it's not very special at all.
    Fab. Reassuring. Gratitude

    Also good to hear that I am AZ/AZ/Moderna and thus optimally jabbed, I shall sally forth tomorrow with renewed brio and vim, if not GRRR, vavavoom and spunk
  • Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Rundown of how the table felt about the UK's virus situation. Almost all were very positive, one person wasn't, now an academic, the pharma people universally disagreed with that person's assessment. The other two academics were sympathetic to the position but overall still thought we were in a favourable place to maintain our current freedom level and roll back the masks again in a few weeks.

    The pharma people all said their internal modelling agreed with the LSHTM model on hospitalisations across Europe. They think Omicron will be very difficult in nations that suppressed the delta exit wave, all three academics said that they disagreed with the government's initial stance of unlock hard in July, but all have been won over by the data.

    The big one - vaccine efficacy dilution. Much more mixed, but overall confidence from the pharma people that the vaccines will work to a good enough degree to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The AZ person said that the UK will benefit from doing the majority of over 50s with two AZ doses and a Moderna/Pfizer booster. Their own study shows it gives the best broad spectrum t-cell and b-cell response which won't prevent any infections but will significantly reduce infection severity to the point that they said even with immune escape those people with 2x AZ and 1x Moderna/Pfizer have little to worry about. The table tended to agree that AZ/AZ/Moderna is probably the best combination. Someone suggested that the government should bring AZ back for 30+ booster shots. Another said that the WHO should make the standard three shot course mRNA/AZ/mRNA and that everyone in the UK who had three mRNA doses should be given the option of an AZ booster in the new year for the t/b-cell immunity that mRNA vaccines don't provide to as high a degree.

    More generally - the group agreed that Chris Whitty was right that every single person in the country will eventually get COVID. One said that the government lulled itself into a false sense of security with the 95% efficacy on three doses but Omicron proves that we will all get it, probably multiple times over the course of life. They said the thinking in government reflects that but the masks have probably been brought back to "purchase" an R reduction of ~0.1 for a couple of weeks just in case Omicron explodes among the unvaccinated young and unboosted old in the run up to Xmas. This person is probably closest to the government and he said the the way NPIs are now rated is almost like a budget, each one is rated with its R value reduction and it is put against the cost of implementing it from an economic and social perspective. Masks have a low economic and medium social cost but also a very low R reduction. Closing schools has got a very high economic and social cost and also a very high R reduction, lockdown is rated as the highest for costs but a bit less than closing schools for R reduction.

    Invaluable, and thanks again

    Were there any opinions on the Reinfection issue? That's one of my primary worries, particularly re the UK
    No worries, yes a few of them said that as the virus mutates we will all get it again and again but with each reinfection the severity would go down. One pointed out that this is what scientists are referring to with viruses becoming less deadly over time, it isn't that the viruses themselves become less deadly, it's that we get better at fighting them off as our immune systems are trained up on previous versions. They said it's like using an iPhone, when it first came out it was really confusing for people, some features weren't understood and it was a big change from using a Nokia, then the next version came out and it was different but similar enough so we all got used to it faster and so on until we're now at version 13 and it's not very special at all.
    Fab. Reassuring. Gratitude

    Also good to hear that I am AZ/AZ/Moderna and thus optimally jabbed, I shall sally forth tomorrow with renewed brio and vim, if not GRRR, vavavoom and spunk
    Off to Peppa Pig world?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,283
    edited November 2021
    FPT - HYUFD said:
    » show previous quotes
    It wasn't, Mulroney was a charismatic leader who won 2 landslides victories in 1984 and 1988. Indeed he was the most successful Canadian Conservative leader since WW2 and indeed still is, having won 2 majorities to Harper's 1.

    Campbell however not only led the PCs to a landslide defeat she also enabled it to be so bad a defeat she lost most of her core vote to the Canadian Reform Party who overtook the PCs as the main party of the right, winning more votes and seats than the PCs did. >>


    What I'm telling you, is that by 1993 Brian Mulroney was widely hated from coast to freaking coast. His charisma that had been so brilliant before was held AGAINST him.

    HE was the problem, not his hapless, hopeless successor.

    Strikes me that your argument is (somewhat) like blaming the collapse of the Third Reich on Admiral Dönitz. And crediting Hitler's triumphs while ignoring the backwash.
  • NEW THREAD
  • Forget oil....Canada is releasing nearly half of its strategic stockpile of maple syrup as it faces soaring demand from a pandemic home cooking boom and a poor harvest from bad weather
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    Even on the latest Opinium swing from 2019 the Conservatives would hold Old Bexley and Sidcup with a 28% majority.

    Plus of course Tory v Labour by elections tend to follow the national polls, only the LDs tend to attract by election swings bigger than the national polling average
  • NEW THREAD

    Sorry, meant to post that at end of previous thread! Unless this is an alternate universe?
  • I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    Three mRNA doses are probably good enough that HMG are willing to trade the reduction in efficacy compared to using AZ as a booster, in return for the greater public confidence.

    However unjust it might be AZ now has the reputation of being a second-class vaccine compared to the mRNA vaccines.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021
    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    I don't think Khan actually even LIKES London. He would far rather be strictly ruling a small, liberal suburb of Jeddah. Or maybe in total control of Newent, where he could enforce litter policing with real success
  • Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    The move to the new eco-building should save the authority more than £60m over the next five years.

    They’re doing this precisely because the Tories refuse to give them any money to bail out.

    Thought you were in favour of this or only when Boris does it? Like when he cut all the ticket machines
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    "The move to the new eco-building should save the authority more than £60m over the next five years."

    What odds we placing on that turning out to be?

    ....The move will now require a one-off payment of £13.6 million.... In July 2020, the capital's Mayor told London Assembly members that the cost would be £8 million.

    So that's 25% of the savings down the tube before they have even started.
  • Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472

    It amazing how the JCVI have managed to come to decision on 5 month gap, all over 18s and double vax kids in one weekend....where as booster campaign took 2 months of "consideration", while the chair was never off the media saying we need to vax the world.

    Any link to that JCVI decision? The person at the table said the JCVI may try and resist being bounced into making the decision after they felt like they were overruled on vaccines for kids.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    You can be crap and do well electorally...see Boris winning 80 seat majority....Corbyn getting a massive vote share in 2017.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    The move to the new eco-building should save the authority more than £60m over the next five years.

    They’re doing this precisely because the Tories refuse to give them any money to bail out.

    Thought you were in favour of this or only when Boris does it? Like when he cut all the ticket machines
    He spends about eight trillion every month on pulling down statues. He is totally useless. Even Labour voters despise him. The saving is meaningless and the symbolism is dreadful, even the lefty Tony Travers admits this in that BBC article

    I bet the very next mayor after Khan will reverse this move - of taking the London Assembly away from central London - and it will cost us all pointless ££££, because Khan is a clueless gimp
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    I don't think Khan actually even LIKES London. He would far rather be strictly ruling a small, liberal suburb of Jeddah. Or maybe in total control of Newent, where he could enforce litter policing with real success

    No, he hates London and Londoners. It's a fun city full of energetic and dynamic young people who go out and socialise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    MaxPB said:

    It amazing how the JCVI have managed to come to decision on 5 month gap, all over 18s and double vax kids in one weekend....where as booster campaign took 2 months of "consideration", while the chair was never off the media saying we need to vax the world.

    Any link to that JCVI decision? The person at the table said the JCVI may try and resist being bounced into making the decision after they felt like they were overruled on vaccines for kids.
    Well all the newspaper front pages are reporting this. Now it could be Javid briefing them so they can't back down, but they all report the JCVI met this weekend and made a decision.

    And here is a quote from earlier today.
    -----

    The deputy chairman of the JCVI said it was right to give over-18s a booster earlier than anticipated amid concerns over the new variant and the impact of winter pressures on the NHS.

    Professor Anthony Harnden also backed reducing the interval between the second and booster doses. He told BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House: 'There's a very good, strong argument for raising the antibody level in the whole of the community.

    'So, accelerating the booster programme, both by extending the age range and by reducing the interval between the second dose and the booster dose, will be a sensible strategy. Those adults 18-plus will have an offer of a booster earlier than we had previously envisaged.'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    Leon said:

    I don't think Khan actually even LIKES London. He would far rather be strictly ruling a small, liberal suburb of Jeddah. Or maybe in total control of Newent, where he could enforce litter policing with real success

    Why Jeddah and Newent as examples, out of interest? An eclectic selection.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    I don't think Khan actually even LIKES London. He would far rather be strictly ruling a small, liberal suburb of Jeddah. Or maybe in total control of Newent, where he could enforce litter policing with real success

    Why Jeddah and Newent as examples, out of interest? An eclectic selection.
    Because Khan is a joyless teetotaller (but not the Taliban) = a small liberal suburb of Jeddah, but he is also just a boring, petty little man, whose officious, unambitious persona would be best employed running a modest, conservative English town = Newent

    He ain't London. He will not be missed by Londoners
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    Yes but London is a Labour city now and indeed the strongest Labour region in the UK which gave Labour its biggest voteshare of any UK region in 2019.

    Boris therefore achieved more by being the only Tory ever elected to be Mayor of London than Khan did in simply holding the natural Labour majority there
  • I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
  • kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
    What about regeneration stemming from the fact that an organization with (I'm guessing) hundreds of employees and thousands of visitors & vendors is relocating to this area?

    And are adequate transport links in the works as well, which would also help the general vicinity?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    They are both mRNA jabs, the ideal cocktail is to have something like an AZN, which works via a different mechanism. The reason loads of people are getting Moderna is just because the UK has a supply of it at the moment, its not a targeted program of mix and match.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    HYUFD said:

    Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    Yes but London is a Labour city now and indeed the strongest Labour region in the UK.

    Boris therefore achieved more by being the only Tory ever elected to be Mayor of London than Khan did in simply holding the natural Labour majority there
    And Khan came quite close to losing last time, against a totally uninspiring Tory candidate with zero backing

    Khan would be foolish to run again (and Labour would be foolish to allow him); if he does, the Tories have a REAL chance if they can find a good candidate, despite London being a highly Labour city

    A sassy Tory woman, maybe BAME, would put Khan in great jeopardy. The first female London mayor
  • I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    Here in Seattle all three anti-COVID shots I got were Pfizer. And everyone I know who I've asked has also gotten three of the same, either Pfizer or Moderna.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
    What about regeneration stemming from the fact that an organization with (I'm guessing) hundreds of employees and thousands of visitors & vendors is relocating to this area?

    And are adequate transport links in the works as well, which would also help the general vicinity?
    No, no, no and no
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    edited November 2021

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
    What about regeneration stemming from the fact that an organization with (I'm guessing) hundreds of employees and thousands of visitors & vendors is relocating to this area?
    Does that really work? Some local shops maybe?

    I have no skin in this game whatsoever not being a londoner, and if the savings estimate is right it justifies the move, but I'm always skeptical of vague assumptions that one move or project will 'unlock' a wider regeneration unless there's also a coherent plan and funds to back it up. The government's high street funds and other pots of monies are attempting to unlock potential with targeted plans, but it's a tossup if it will work.

    The way the story is written up it sounds like its primarily about saving money and some 'hope' it will help regeneration.

    Hope generally lets us down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    The new glass building also has less capacity than City Hall and some GLA staff will instead be relocated to the LFB's headquarters in Union Street, Southwark.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    MrEd said:

    FPT

    If I was doing an outside bet for next Tory leader, then I would look at - and don’t all laugh- Nadine Dorries.

    Yes, mad as a box of frogs to many but there is a reason she has been brought into the Cabinet and that is because the Tories will fight the next GE on the culture wars - it’s the best way to keep the Red Wall voters together with traditional Home Counties Tories who may have been mixed on Brexit but aren’t keen that their kids are taught to switch genders at the drop of a hat.

    It’s why I’m not a great backer of the view that either Sunak or Truss will be the next leader - they wouldn’t have the conviction nor would they come across as sincere in their views.

    She starts with a "no" from Caroline Nokes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I'm struggling to understand why we are not allowed to believe the South African GP story. As a source on how many people are how ill in the country I'd put a practising GP pretty fcuking high on the credibility list.

    Yes, I’m struggling with that too. My comment above related to the reporting of her testimony on some niche site for cranks called Zero Hedge. I have no problem with her making the testimony nor it being widely used: she is at the frontline.
    She's not at the fucking frontline. She is one GP albeit with an honorary position. What's more, she is being serially misquoted by the chronically fearful and nervous, who want to believe everything is AOK

    Here's the source article for "everything is mild and fine"


    "She said, in total, about two dozen of her patients have tested positive for Covid-19 with symptoms of the new variant. They were mostly healthy men who turned up “feeling so tired”. About half of them were unvaccinated."

    Two Dozen

    TWO DOZEN

    And then:


    "Dr Coetzee, who was briefing other African medical associations on Saturday, made clear her patients were all healthy and she was worried the new variant could still hit older people – with co-morbidities such as diabetes or heart disease – much harder.

    “What we have to worry about now is that when older, unvaccinated people are infected with the new variant, and if they are not vaccinated, we are going to see many people with a severe [form of the] disease,” she said."


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/
    Sure, so what exactly is wrong with carrying that interview? Are you suggesting it shouldn’t be used? I simply don’t understand your way of thinking here.
    There is nothing wrong with the interview - it is just that it is a single point of view, with a serious risk of survivor-bias in her experiences.

    Not pointing that out creates fake information. In fact the use of such stories out of context is exactly how false information is created.

    For example, what does the fact that no white man was convicted of murdering a black man between 1865 and 1965 in Missouri, USA, tell us about race relations?
    Just wrong about survivor bias, because if people were dying of this and therefore not coming to her attention, they'd be disproportionately likely to be the friends and relations of people she *is* seeing, who would quite likely be mentioning it to her.

    This omicron thing is either devastatingly lethal or it isn't, and you don't need a sodding clinical trial to tell the difference. Clinical trials detect small differences, between treatments which help a bit vs treatments which don't help at all. When they bombed Hiroshima, did they detonate a placebo bomb over a similar Japanese city so they could see whether Little Boy worked or not? If not, why not?
    Ah - making ass-umptions about the lack of biases in the sample.

    One of the handy things about not burning Kyoto to the ground was that, after the war, the scientists got to measure the exact properties of Japanese civil and domestic structures.

    And discovered that while strangely resistant to thermal pulse & shock waves*, they were very transparent to gamma, neutrinos and x-rays.

    Which explained why people had died from prompt radiation from the bomb - the previous calculations had suggested that if you were close enough to get a fatal radiation dose, you would be incinerated a millisecond later anyway.....

    *They burned and fell down, but acted as sacrificial shields.
    Finding they weren’t transparent to neutrinos would have been surprising.

    This is quite good on what you need for a lethal dose of neutrinos: https://what-if.xkcd.com/73/
    As it is christmastime I would still absolutely recommend, as last year, getting either Munroe's What If or How To books as stocking fillers for people. Worth rereading too.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,096

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    In a healthcare setting like a NHS Trust it's been x3 Pfizer. Well it was at our Trust.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited November 2021
    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Nice bit of spin from the BBC making it sound like the new assembly is a bit smaller....

    Apparently it is actually half the size of the purpose-built City Hall, so many GLA staff will have to continue working from home or from the London Fire Brigade headquarters in Union Street, Southwark.

    But Khan is having gender neutral toilets put in, so thats a plus.

    I would be more in favour if they said we can only fit half the number in, so we better downsize our bloated staffing, that has been expanding under Khan.
  • Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    Comparing the first round shares when they sought re-election: Khan got 40.0% of the first party vote in 2021 versus Boris's 44.0% in 2012.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    Face masks in secondary schools is regrettable.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Face masks in secondary schools is regrettable.

    And theatre.
  • Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
    What about regeneration stemming from the fact that an organization with (I'm guessing) hundreds of employees and thousands of visitors & vendors is relocating to this area?

    And are adequate transport links in the works as well, which would also help the general vicinity?
    No, no, no and no
    In that order?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    My dad had that combination and had a dead arm and a headache for a day. He got wiped out by the first AZ dose, was in bed for a few days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    Yes: pretty much everyone.

    Your body is already primed to look for something that looks like Covid. And then something that look like Covid arrives and your immune system goes into overdrive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    On topic.
    Who was it who said the Tories have only two gears? Complacency and blind panic?
    C+A was the former, this is the latter.
    Easy hold. But no value in those prices. I'm out.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 592
    Andy_JS said:

    Face masks in secondary schools is regrettable.

    That's a nice way of putting it. I think the term is more like "moronic".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Easy hold. The majority will fall. As will the share. But I'd be surprised if it were within 10%.
    50% of the vote is what I'd be looking at as an over/under
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Greenwich, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    That story confuses me. It seems the case for the move was about savings, which is fine as motivation goes if that proves to be true, but it also says 'others believe it will spur the regeneration of one of the poorest parts of the capital'.

    Which is a very odd statement to me, since the location of the Mayor and Assembly should not play a role in how they make decisions to regenerate things, and is it really the case that such a move would lead others to regenerate an area nearby? Why would that be?
    What about regeneration stemming from the fact that an organization with (I'm guessing) hundreds of employees and thousands of visitors & vendors is relocating to this area?

    And are adequate transport links in the works as well, which would also help the general vicinity?
    The cable car is in that area, as is Excel Centre and London City Airport. Also the DLR.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,847
    edited November 2021
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    My dad had that combination and had a dead arm and a headache for a day. He got wiped out by the first AZ dose, was in bed for a few days.
    I had Moderna yesterday after two AZs.

    1st AZ - Meh.
    2nd AZ - Flu symptoms, a bit rough for 24 hours.
    MDNA - Dead arm, mule kick to the kidneys, general malaise. Took about 10 hours to kick in. Not recovered yet.

    Oddly Mrs Flatlander had a reaction to the 1st AZ but not the second. Same reaction to Moderna though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    Yes: pretty much everyone.

    Your body is already primed to look for something that looks like Covid. And then something that look like Covid arrives and your immune system goes into overdrive.
    I am not looking forward to my body's reaction for the second booster :o
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    Nice bit of spin from the BBC making it sound like the new assembly is a bit smaller....

    Apparently it is actually half the size of the purpose-built City Hall, so many GLA staff will have to continue working from home or from the London Fire Brigade headquarters in Union Street, Southwark.

    But Khan is having gender neutral toilets put in, so thats a plus.

    I would be more in favour if they said we can only fit half the number in, so we better downsize our bloated staffing, that has been expanding under Khan.

    No wonder it's saving them a ton of money, it's nowhere near big enough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920
    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money

    I'm still instinctively a Londoner, and of course very interested in politics, but I really don't care where City Hall is located, and I shouldn't think most Londoners care either.

    Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
  • isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    Moderna booster and Flue jab last Thursday. Sore arms (1 in each) and felt exhausted Saturday into Sunday morning. Fine now.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,085
    A more interesting challenge in B&S would be the turnout.... my money is on around 38-40%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money

    I'm still instinctively a Londoner, and of course very interested in politics, but I really don't care where City Hall is located, and I shouldn't think most Londoners care either.

    Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
    You'd think they would at least get an office big enough to house their staff, wouldn't you?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    A more interesting challenge in B&S would be the turnout.... my money is on around 38-40%.

    I said 40% last week. Starting to think it might be a touch lower than that, so basically I agree with you.
  • UK labs are probing 75 'probable' omicron samples and up to 150 'possible' others.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,412
    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    AZ AZ Moderna
    No reaction to jab 1, 2 or 3
  • isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    AZ, AZ and Pfizer booster yesterday. So far OK.
  • Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    Yes but London is a Labour city now and indeed the strongest Labour region in the UK.

    Boris therefore achieved more by being the only Tory ever elected to be Mayor of London than Khan did in simply holding the natural Labour majority there
    And Khan came quite close to losing last time, against a totally uninspiring Tory candidate with zero backing

    Khan would be foolish to run again (and Labour would be foolish to allow him); if he does, the Tories have a REAL chance if they can find a good candidate, despite London being a highly Labour city

    A sassy Tory woman, maybe BAME, would put Khan in great jeopardy. The first female London mayor
    London being such a Labour city that Labour has a 50 per cent success rate in Mayoral elections. Remember that Ken's first win was as an independent against the Labour candidate, Frank Dobson, who'd been Health Secretary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money

    I'm still instinctively a Londoner, and of course very interested in politics, but I really don't care where City Hall is located, and I shouldn't think most Londoners care either.

    Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
    You'd think they would at least get an office big enough to house their staff, wouldn't you?
    Not given the number who would probably refuse to go out to docklands on account of where they live.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money

    I'm still instinctively a Londoner, and of course very interested in politics, but I really don't care where City Hall is located, and I shouldn't think most Londoners care either.

    Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
    You'd think they would at least get an office big enough to house their staff, wouldn't you?
    Maybe they should take the hint, and have a good look at all the non-jobs and paper-shufflers that could be done away with or automated.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59451799

    He really is the Worst Mayor Ever, and this move will be his epitaph. It's terrible in every way

    Such a move would be emblematic of the decline of local / regional government. No status or confidence.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Covid update: One day prior to the introduction of compulsory face masks and no one in my carriage (long distance commuter train) is wearing one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    philiph said:

    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    AZ AZ Moderna
    No reaction to jab 1, 2 or 3
    Your immune system’s given up already?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Someone wanting “to try and make it to the UK for a better life” is an economic migrant, not a refugee.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Someone wanting “to try and make it to the UK for a better life” is an economic migrant, not a refugee.
    Depending on how bad their life is already.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Economic migrants, no?

    On the other hand, would they have come if the West had not decided to unseat Saddam? Do we get to leave a mess, rub our hands together, and say "well, not my fault"?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    Sandpit said:
    She's fighting Otto Wallin???
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Nothing quite so fun as repeatedly waking up during the night only to sleep in when you're actually meant to get up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    DavidL said:

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
    I get the impression each site has a supply on one type only, to keep things quick and simple. Getting something into as many arms as possible is the priority.
  • isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    AZ, AZ and Pfizer booster yesterday. So far OK.
    Snap.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    DavidL said:

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
    Interestingly, AZ followed by Pfizer is much better than Pfizer followed by AZ. Why? I don't know.

    If you had Pfizer-Pfizer, then you should (ideally) have had Moderna as your booster.
  • Sandpit said:
    The interviewer suggested SPotY was a fait accompli, to which she could obviously not agree. However, since she knew Hamilton was eight points behind Verstappen, we can see she really is following Formula 1. Fwiw, I've backed Emma and Lewis, and Lewis without Emma.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
    I get the impression each site has a supply on one type only, to keep things quick and simple. Getting something into as many arms as possible is the priority.
    Certainly one at a time, which I can understand the logic of. But it should still have been possible to have everyone who had Pfizer turn up on a day when Moderna was being handed out and everyone who had AZ turn up when, etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    rcs1000 said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Economic migrants, no?

    On the other hand, would they have come if the West had not decided to unseat Saddam? Do we get to leave a mess, rub our hands together, and say "well, not my fault"?
    As I keep saying - it's almost never 100% one or the other.

    My wife came here on a basis of about 70% economic and about 30% life-is-dangerous-and-crap, for example.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    isam said:

    So has anyone who had two AZs first then had a reaction to a Pfizer/Moderna booster?

    AZ, AZ and Pfizer booster yesterday. So far OK.
    Snap.
    My experience (with Moderna, I grant you) is that about 20 hours in you'll get his by a wave of tiredness and not feeling great.

    The next morning it will be gone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
    Interestingly, AZ followed by Pfizer is much better than Pfizer followed by AZ. Why? I don't know.

    If you had Pfizer-Pfizer, then you should (ideally) have had Moderna as your booster.
    Well, too late now. I do wonder if it means I might need a further booster faster than those that had AZ in particular.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074

    Sandpit said:
    The interviewer suggested SPotY was a fait accompli, to which she could obviously not agree. However, since she knew Hamilton was eight points behind Verstappen, we can see she really is following Formula 1. Fwiw, I've backed Emma and Lewis, and Lewis without Emma.
    I’ve not backed anyone, but done a lot of laying (as was discussed over the summer).

    I’m green on any winner with Betfair, but have a side bet lay of Emma with @Philip_Thompson which makes me slightly red overall if she wins.

    Sad news to hear this morning about Sir Frank Williams, one of the last remaining old-school privateers. God speed and fly high.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon insists Khan is the worst Mayor ever yet is more popular in every poll than Johnson ever was and won with a larger share of the vote both times

    Yes but London is a Labour city now and indeed the strongest Labour region in the UK.

    Boris therefore achieved more by being the only Tory ever elected to be Mayor of London than Khan did in simply holding the natural Labour majority there
    And Khan came quite close to losing last time, against a totally uninspiring Tory candidate with zero backing

    Khan would be foolish to run again (and Labour would be foolish to allow him); if he does, the Tories have a REAL chance if they can find a good candidate, despite London being a highly Labour city

    A sassy Tory woman, maybe BAME, would put Khan in great jeopardy. The first female London mayor
    London being such a Labour city that Labour has a 50 per cent success rate in Mayoral elections. Remember that Ken's first win was as an independent against the Labour candidate, Frank Dobson, who'd been Health Secretary.
    Which was a strange situation - Frank Dobson was Blair's forlorn attempt to stop Livingstone who was the favourite of Labour in London by a long sea mile. In reality that was Labour vs Labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    Leon said:

    Sadiq Khan's mayoralty in a nutshell. Moving City Hall from the iconic, purpose built Norman Foster-designed HQ right by Tower Bridge, to an anonymous, low slung glass thing somewhere in Newham, but no one knows where, a jagged blob that has few transport connections, thus degrading his office and the city governance in the eyes of voters, and not even saving that much money

    I'm still instinctively a Londoner, and of course very interested in politics, but I really don't care where City Hall is located, and I shouldn't think most Londoners care either.

    Locally in Surrey, we tried to get people indignant about the country being run from a County Hall actually outside the County. Sadly, I never met anyone other than activists who gave a toss.
    They are moving City Hall from a building they don’t own and isn’t big enough to just about the only building they do own.

    It’s convenient for the Emirates Airline and the DLR. there’s also a Tesco metro next door so Lunch is sorted.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Someone wanting “to try and make it to the UK for a better life” is an economic migrant, not a refugee.
    Depending on how bad their life is already.
    No. Economic migrant plain and simple. Any other interpretation would open the door to everyone - which might well suit your beliefs of course.
  • Mr. Sandpit, aye, sad to hear. Hope Williams can improve next year with the significant rule changes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59454243

    Rizgar's wife, Kajal Hussein, 45, and their children Hadia, 22, son Mobin, 16 and younger daughter Hesty, seven, all left from a Kurdish town in northern Iraq.

    Rizgar says that he didn't want his family to leave for Europe, and he would lose his job as a policeman if he joined them and the plan failed.

    But his family were adamant they wanted to try to make it to the UK for a better life. He promised to join them if they made it.

    "They wanted to go, everybody wants to live a good life, to have a peaceful heart and mind. But here, ask anyone from seven to 80 years old - nobody feels good," Rizgar says.

    Someone wanting “to try and make it to the UK for a better life” is an economic migrant, not a refugee.
    Its a question of degree isn't it? A better life might include not having your kids locked up and tortured at random for some perceived slight on someone important or being caught up in a random bomb. But if her husband is a policeman she is going to find it very difficult to persuade the Home Office that she is part of some oppressed minority.
    If they grant asylum to people like this - and to people who have lived in Germany for four years, as was discussed yesterday - then I might as well take my wife to Calais and bung a couple of grand to the man with the boat. Way cheaper than getting lawyers to write letters to the Home Office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the government really missed a trick with the booster programme not to ensure everybody got mix and match. We know it is the optimal approach and UK has enough of everything to be able to do it.

    I thought everyone did get mix and match. I have not heard of anyone getting the same jab for booster as they got for 1&2. All those I know like me who had Pfizer for 1&2 have had Moderna for booster.
    I've had Pfizer 3x. It's a bit disappointing. My wife, who is only slightly older than me, had AZ the first 2x and she got Pfizer the third time as well since we were done together. I do think that the evidence that a mix of vaccines was more efficacious was sufficiently strong for the NHS to have thought about this.
    I get the impression each site has a supply on one type only, to keep things quick and simple. Getting something into as many arms as possible is the priority.
    Certainly one at a time, which I can understand the logic of. But it should still have been possible to have everyone who had Pfizer turn up on a day when Moderna was being handed out and everyone who had AZ turn up when, etc.
    Possibly/. But you're probably underestimating the organisational consequences of extra complexity.
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