Betting on another CON majority – Part 2 – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD0 -
If I start tossing a coin and the 1st 100 are heads, ok, so that exact sequence HHHHHHH etc is no more unlikely with a fair coin than any other exact sequence HTHHTHHT etc. Nevertheless I'd strongly suspect a bent coin. Are you saying I'd be wrong to suspect that?FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html0 -
Ace-kinabalu said:
If I start tossing a coin and the 1st 100 are heads, ok, so that exact sequence HHHHHHH etc is no more unlikely with a fair coin than any other exact sequence HTHHTHHT etc. Nevertheless I'd strongly suspect a bent coin. Are you saying I'd be wrong to suspect that?FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html
This could thread could turn out like the 3 door goat question.0 -
Absolutely, the lockdown fascists will 100% say that the mask wearing is why cases are falling and then call for more restrictions.Anabobazina said:
Indeed this is a clear and present risk to offering concessionary restrictions: those who advocate for restrictions always agitate for more.maaarsh said:2nd day in a row of cases falling.
Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.
And I don't have much faith that con won't work.1 -
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This is quite important. Suggestions by BNO that all the 61 cases on the Dutch SA planes are actually Omicron, 13 confirmed, 48 "probable"
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/
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We are about 2 weeks from having any idea as to the chances of catching Omicron and the risk of serious illness for those that catch it.Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
At the moment all we have is a number of people extrapolating from a very incomplete dataset1 -
Well given they are say 90% of new cases in a particular region of SA have become acquainted with Mike Ron, it wouldn't be that surprising to find that those who have COVID on a plane from there have it.Leon said:This is quite important. Suggestions by BNO that all the 61 cases on the Dutch SA planes are actually Omicron, 13 confirmed, 48 "probable"
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/0 -
Just heading to a bar because why not, summary - people are panicking over nothing right now. The flight bans are sensible, other measures had less consensus.3
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Yes, a lot of speculation, and hers is some of the wooliesteek said:
We are about 2 weeks from having any idea as to the chances of catching Omicron and the risk of serious illness for those that catch it.Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
At the moment all we have is a number of people extrapolating from a very incomplete dataset
However I reckon we will know more sooner than 2 weeks. There will be hospital/death data from SA, and we will be following cases now caught in Europe and elsewhere
A picture will grow, incrementally
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"As I argued here, there is no evidence that the 2019 result will be a good predictor of the 2023/4 outcome – those that argue that a large majority of seats make it significantly more likely that the Conservatives will win a majority next time are simply wrong."
This argument from part 1 is interesting; if correct it means that the starting point at the last election is not a significant factor in what will happen next time. Does that mean that the 1997 result, for example, does not help in deciding who will win in 2001?
If that is correct then the fact that a party has more ground to make up (as the Tories did after 1997, and Labour do now) should have no bearing on the betting.
I do not feel convinced.
I do however come to a similar conclusion about a Tory majority - the odds understate it by taking into account temporary factors right now which will probably have no bearing on the result in 23/24.0 -
The planes were both from Gauteng? Then yes, that is predictableFrancisUrquhart said:
Well given they are say 90% of new cases in a particular region of SA have become acquainted with Mike Ron, it wouldn't be that surprising to find that those who have COVID on a plane from there have it.Leon said:This is quite important. Suggestions by BNO that all the 61 cases on the Dutch SA planes are actually Omicron, 13 confirmed, 48 "probable"
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/
Hopefully they all have a tickly cough, and nowt else, and we can relax0 -
On topic - the header has some interesting analysis but I'm not sure that the conclusion necessarily follows. The historical distribution of results corresponds to a kind of naive prior over the distribution of potential results at the next election. It would only be a reliable guide to the result if there were no information contained in any other signal, such as the picture from opinion polls or the economic or Covid outlook. I'm not sure we can simply ignore all this other information, and so it's not obvious to me that the naive prior is more likely to be right than the betting markets. In my opinion the betting markets look more or less right.0
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Waste of space.
The probability of any given sequence of M tosses of a fair coin is (1/2)^M . Thus if M is large this can be small. But there are (2)^M such cases, so the probability of some sequence or other occurring is their product, namely unity.0 -
Most people don’t like to admit they were wrong about anything. So it’s much harder to get them to reverse their vote in one election cycle. Stay at home, sure. But I think that’s why a swing from an emphatic majority to an opposition workable majority is so tricky to achieve.algarkirk said:"As I argued here, there is no evidence that the 2019 result will be a good predictor of the 2023/4 outcome – those that argue that a large majority of seats make it significantly more likely that the Conservatives will win a majority next time are simply wrong."
This argument from part 1 is interesting; if correct it means that the starting point at the last election is not a significant factor in what will happen next time. Does that mean that the 1997 result, for example, does not help in deciding who will win in 2001?
If that is correct then the fact that a party has more ground to make up (as the Tories did after 1997, and Labour do now) should have no bearing on the betting.
I do not feel convinced.
I do however come to a similar conclusion about a Tory majority - the odds understate it by taking into account temporary factors right now which will probably have no bearing on the result in 23/24.0 -
Who picked the Goat?Toms said:Waste of space.
The probability of any given sequence of M tosses of a fair coin is (1/2)^M . Thus if M is large this can be small. But there are (2)^M such cases, so the probability of some sequence or other occurring is their product, namely unity.1 -
Comparing 2019 and 1997 (and 2019 to 2024 and 1997 to 2001, for that matter) is very difficult as the circumstances could hardly be more different.algarkirk said:"As I argued here, there is no evidence that the 2019 result will be a good predictor of the 2023/4 outcome – those that argue that a large majority of seats make it significantly more likely that the Conservatives will win a majority next time are simply wrong."
This argument from part 1 is interesting; if correct it means that the starting point at the last election is not a significant factor in what will happen next time. Does that mean that the 1997 result, for example, does not help in deciding who will win in 2001?
If that is correct then the fact that a party has more ground to make up (as the Tories did after 1997, and Labour do now) should have no bearing on the betting.
I do not feel convinced.
I do however come to a similar conclusion about a Tory majority - the odds understate it by taking into account temporary factors right now which will probably have no bearing on the result in 23/24.
One could make the case that one of the most important factors in our politics is the third party, which is curious given we have first past the post. The presence of the Lib Dems gave a fair degree of predictability to the structure of our politics. Their fall and the rise of the SNP has radically altered the dynamics.0 -
Another 45 more minutes without conceding and they'll be offering Michael Carrick a five year contract0
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Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD0 -
Ten year......0
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Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD1 -
There is a paradox in cryptography: the only theoretically unbreakable code is the One Time Pad method, and the theory only says it is undecipherable provided you don't tamper with or moderate its output in any way. There is no reason why its output should not be the same as the plaintext: so you put in D Day will be on 6 June, and that is also, according to the rules, your ciphertext. What do you do?kinabalu said:
If I start tossing a coin and the 1st 100 are heads, ok, so that exact sequence HHHHHHH etc is no more unlikely with a fair coin than any other exact sequence HTHHTHHT etc. Nevertheless I'd strongly suspect a bent coin. Are you saying I'd be wrong to suspect that?FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html
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...
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No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
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Germany 2021?JBriskin3 said:
Ashdown, like Clegg, had no route to No 10moonshine said:
If that had happened, who would the tories have chosen in 1992 as leader and how would they have fared in the 1997/8 election?HYUFD said:
Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.JBriskin3 said:
Managing expectations - cannyHYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again
Would Kinnock have chosen brown as chancellor after John Smith’s death? Would he have snaffled Blair’s career before it has barely begun?
What price would Pants Down have extracted for support in the coalition? Might he have had a path to PM in an election or two?
Junior coalition partners always get shafted at the polls.2 -
Denialism. What is autumnal about today, with leaves and fruit and harvests a distant memory?algarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
"In Scandinavia, winter in one tradition begins on 14 October and ends on the last day of February" which sounds about right to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter#Astronomical_and_other_calendar-based_reckoning
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To put the likelyhood of that sequence of a fair coin into some real world context - the most reds in a row at roulette in any casino since records began is 32 .Now strictly speaking getting red is slightly less than even at roulette due to the green zero but not much less . You really woudl have to wait to the end of the universe to get 92 in a rowanother_richard said:
A 92-0 pattern is just as likely as any other 92 stage pattern.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html
But a 92-0 result is a lot less likely than a 46-46 or 47-45 or 45-47 etc.0 -
I'm in the softy south and it's snowing here. Winter.algarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD0 -
Derren Brown got to 10 heads in a row...eventually:state_go_away said:
To put the likelyhood of that sequence of a fair coin into some real world context - the most reds in a row at roulette in any casino since records began is 32 .Now strictly speaking getting red is slightly less than even at roulette due to the green zero but not much less . You really woudl have to wait to the end of the universe to get 92 in a rowanother_richard said:
A 92-0 pattern is just as likely as any other 92 stage pattern.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html
But a 92-0 result is a lot less likely than a 46-46 or 47-45 or 45-47 etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc0 -
Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.0 -
Aberdeenshire schools all closed for the next two days. Too much damage to assess to have schools make individual decisions, so they've shut them all0
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11/8 - I didn't have one big bet, just had £25-£50 a week for a while. Managed to back 2.8 last week, I don't really get why they have come in to 2.6 nowkinabalu said:
You're on at evens, aren't you?isam said:Tend to agree with the thread header
The onslaught of anti govt tweets in the comments and Opinium based thread headers would make an impartial observer think this was done and dusted, and the Tories goners - you only have to have been a PBer from 2010-15, or look at the 83, 87, 92, 15 GE polling to see how these narratives are usually just noise
"To top up or not to top up", this is the question you are no doubt asking yourself - and indeed might have answered for all I know.0 -
BBC News - SNP to table Boris Johnson 'no confidence' motion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-594534880 -
a 1 in 1024 chance or half that if he would have accepted 10 in a row of wither side of the coin. To get 32 reds in a row at roulette is about a 5 billion to one chance and to get 92 heads in a row is well impossible unless you have monkeys doing at least a page of Hamlet.tlg86 said:
Derren Brown got to 10 heads in a row...eventually:state_go_away said:
To put the likelyhood of that sequence of a fair coin into some real world context - the most reds in a row at roulette in any casino since records began is 32 .Now strictly speaking getting red is slightly less than even at roulette due to the green zero but not much less . You really woudl have to wait to the end of the universe to get 92 in a rowanother_richard said:
A 92-0 pattern is just as likely as any other 92 stage pattern.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html
But a 92-0 result is a lot less likely than a 46-46 or 47-45 or 45-47 etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzYLHOX50Bc
A slight aside is that every time you shuffle a deck of cards and lay them out in a order you are making history as the number of combinations means it is almost certian it has never been done before in that order0 -
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very oftenalgarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful0 -
-6c overnight, snow covering the hills and no water for 36 hours… feels like winter in the Yorkshire Dales right now…algarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
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Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
No they aren't, because I can guarantee we had the concepts of the seasons tens of thousands of years before we understood what an equinox or a solstice are. There is a fit of a sort, but it's crops which have mattered to mankind since forever. Winter is the bit between when you've harvested everything, and you can start planting stuff again.Anabobazina said:Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.
ETA and thermal lag is a lag; "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens", which would push your thermal winter later, not earlier, than the solstice.0 -
Utterly pathetic. Eighty seat majority, just grandstaninding. Wankers. Debate serious issues.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - SNP to table Boris Johnson 'no confidence' motion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-594534881 -
If you ever see one in the house, that is when you really have to worry, as it more than likely means it has become part of the route for a big pack of them. We had this issue a few years ago.moonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?
Its a bit like covid, when you think you might have a problem, you got a massive problem.
Try and nip it in the bud early.1 -
Live and let live. There are lots of rats around anyway - you can knock yourself out buying poison etc. (which is incidentally quite nasty - they die from internal bleeding) and temporarily dent the population, but others will move in. You don't want rodents breeding inside the house, but outside, it's just normal life.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
never read James Herbert?NickPalmer said:
Live and let live. There are lots of rats around anyway - you can knock yourself out buying poison etc. (which is incidentally quite nasty - they die from internal bleeding) and temporarily dent the population, but others will move in. You don't want rodents breeding inside the house, but outside, it's just normal life.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
Paul Embery
@PaulEmbery
·
4h
Snowfall where I am. And freezing! The kids have been staring through the patio doors shouting 'It's a blizzard; it's a blizzard.' If it gets any worse, I'll let them back in.8 -
Probability is why bookies love accas in that people overestimate massively say 6 plausible results all coming in at once and thus think they are worth betting on . They get stung once in a blue moon - Dettori day being one occasion of course2
-
Mr. Peach, not in the Dales but even here (near Leeds) it's hovering around the edge of needing the heating on overnight.0
-
And 'tis a freebie for the man from the council to come and fix them, provided you are purely domestic and don't have chickens or whatevermoonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?
0 -
JohnsonIan Governments have only been in play for two years, so the longevity clause doesn't apply. What went on before felt very, very different.HYUFD said:
There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re electedNickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.2 -
Yes, if you're observing a specific thing. The underlying question is whether they're the same thing at all. For example, you're including an election when universal franchise didn't yet exist (I think female non-property owners only got the vote in 1927?).Fishing said:
26 is not particularly tiny for a time series regression like this!NickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes,HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
Clearly the previous election is relevant, though - it's a starting point and mostly the same people are still around, so it is indeed almost the same thing. Hence why we all agree that a Labour overall majority is unlikely. Beyond that, I don't think any of us have much clue, and the betting markets reflect that.1 -
In which case, I think we can reasonably assume that the 'cron is decently well seeded outside South Africa.Leon said:This is quite important. Suggestions by BNO that all the 61 cases on the Dutch SA planes are actually Omicron, 13 confirmed, 48 "probable"
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/
Wake me up when we know whether it:
(a) Has significant escape from those who are triple jabbed
and
(b) Has significantly higher mortality than Delta, etc.
1 -
I think too that the confidence intervals for the number of Conservative seats is so wide that it isn't a very helpful when predicting what happens next.NickPalmer said:
Yes, if you're observing a specific thing. The underlying question is whether they're the same thing at all. For example, you're including an election when universal franchise didn't yet exist (I think female non-property owners only got the vote in 1927?).Fishing said:
26 is not particularly tiny for a time series regression like this!NickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes,HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
Clearly the previous election is relevant, though - it's a starting point and mostly the same people are still around, so it is indeed almost the same thing. Hence why we all agree that a Labour overall majority is unlikely. Beyond that, I don't think any of us have much clue, and the betting markets reflect that.0 -
Always winter and never Christmas.Leon said:
Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very oftenalgarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
And weeks of Things 1 and 2 plugged into laptops for Zoom lessons.
Even if what is coming is bad, it can't be that bad, can it?0 -
They'll try to get rid of him, the effort will fail, they'll say that this proves how broken Westminster is and that independence is therefore an immediate and vital necessity.turbotubbs said:
Utterly pathetic. Eighty seat majority, just grandstanding. Wankers. Debate serious issues.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - SNP to table Boris Johnson 'no confidence' motion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59453488
That's all this is about. That's all they're for.1 -
yes its interesting isn't it that elections rapidly fade into insignificance with regard to predicting future ones . Its a bit like using Man Utds perfomance in 2000 against Chelsea to see if they are going to beat them today (yes I know they are currently leading!)NickPalmer said:
Yes, if you're observing a specific thing. The underlying question is whether they're the same thing at all. For example, you're including an election when universal franchise didn't yet exist (I think female non-property owners only got the vote in 1927?).Fishing said:
26 is not particularly tiny for a time series regression like this!NickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes,HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
Clearly the previous election is relevant, though - it's a starting point and mostly the same people are still around, so it is indeed almost the same thing. Hence why we all agree that a Labour overall majority is unlikely. Beyond that, I don't think any of us have much clue, and the betting markets reflect that.0 -
Seemingly my council “no longer offers this service”.IshmaelZ said:
And 'tis a freebie for the man from the council to come and fix them, provided you are purely domestic and don't have chickens or whatevermoonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
She is of course an anthropologist.Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD0 -
Yes the more tax we pay the less service we get !moonshine said:
Seemingly my council “no longer offers this service”.IshmaelZ said:
And 'tis a freebie for the man from the council to come and fix them, provided you are purely domestic and don't have chickens or whatevermoonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?2 -
With LPG at >60p per litre, heating will be switched on for Christmas Day morning and possibly New Years Eve… lack of water since Friday means the loo is increasingly resembling one I remember using in a road side cafe in Yugoslavia in about 1974… refusing to sanction the use of Evian for flushing purposes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Peach, not in the Dales but even here (near Leeds) it's hovering around the edge of needing the heating on overnight.
0 -
Yes that is what I’m saying - it’s thermal lag that makes the solstices a good stab… otherwise ‘winter’ would be the three darkest months (mid Nov to mid Feb)IshmaelZ said:
No they aren't, because I can guarantee we had the concepts of the seasons tens of thousands of years before we understood what an equinox or a solstice are. There is a fit of a sort, but it's crops which have mattered to mankind since forever. Winter is the bit between when you've harvested everything, and you can start planting stuff again.Anabobazina said:Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.
ETA and thermal lag is a lag; "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens", which would push your thermal winter later, not earlier, than the solstice.0 -
That's what shrinking the state looks likestate_go_away said:
Yes the more tax we pay the less service we get !moonshine said:
Seemingly my council “no longer offers this service”.IshmaelZ said:
And 'tis a freebie for the man from the council to come and fix them, provided you are purely domestic and don't have chickens or whatevermoonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
Which it is. QED.Anabobazina said:
Yes that is what I’m saying - it’s thermal lag that makes the solstices a good stab… otherwise ‘winter’ would be the three darkest months (mid Nov to mid Feb)IshmaelZ said:
No they aren't, because I can guarantee we had the concepts of the seasons tens of thousands of years before we understood what an equinox or a solstice are. There is a fit of a sort, but it's crops which have mattered to mankind since forever. Winter is the bit between when you've harvested everything, and you can start planting stuff again.Anabobazina said:Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.
ETA and thermal lag is a lag; "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens", which would push your thermal winter later, not earlier, than the solstice.
0 -
I have entered my first half-marathon on March 6th. This means that (at least) one of two things really should happen:Leon said:
Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very oftenalgarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
1. Lockdown, wiping out the event
2. Atrocious Winter weather extending into March, also wiping out the event
But no, I'm going to be optimistic. We're going to have a mild Winter with lots of sunshine, Spring will come early, the Omega variant won't have arrived to massacre everybody over the age of 20, and everything will be wonderful.
And we absolutely will not be onto Storm Seán by that point. Oh no. Definitely, certainly not.0 -
Lord, I hope not. Lockdown 3 damn near broke meStuartinromford said:
Always winter and never Christmas.Leon said:
Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very oftenalgarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
And weeks of Things 1 and 2 plugged into laptops for Zoom lessons.
Even if what is coming is bad, it can't be that bad, can it?
I am genuinely unsure I could do a repeat. Not without cracking0 -
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful0 -
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
0 -
Nope. Because the coldest three months are 10 Dec to 10 Mar. And as I have stated above the seasons are set by the cosmos, not blokes on the internet. November is not winter.IshmaelZ said:
Which it is. QED.Anabobazina said:
Yes that is what I’m saying - it’s thermal lag that makes the solstices a good stab… otherwise ‘winter’ would be the three darkest months (mid Nov to mid Feb)IshmaelZ said:
No they aren't, because I can guarantee we had the concepts of the seasons tens of thousands of years before we understood what an equinox or a solstice are. There is a fit of a sort, but it's crops which have mattered to mankind since forever. Winter is the bit between when you've harvested everything, and you can start planting stuff again.Anabobazina said:Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.
ETA and thermal lag is a lag; "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens", which would push your thermal winter later, not earlier, than the solstice.0 -
Yes, this administration has actively prioritised reversing policies of the 2010-2015 administration.Mexicanpete said:
JohnsonIan Governments have only been in play for two years, so the longevity clause doesn't apply. What went on before felt very, very different.HYUFD said:
There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re electedNickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
FTPA, Triple Lock, 0.7% GNP for overseas aid etc.1 -
Normally, I head out to hot sunshine for at least 6 weeks of the wintry 12. Usually Bangkok for 3-4 weeks with a fortnight somewhere weirderstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
Last winter was the first full British winter I have endured for probably 2 decades. So it was a shock anyway. Then add in lockdown, and the particularly miserable weather....0 -
Just as I'd throw the 'suspect' coin away - or use it for a con on someone who deserves it - I think I'd bin that too. Go with 'plain commonsense' over ideology in other words. Which is not usual for me. I hate plain commonsense.IshmaelZ said:
There is a paradox in cryptography: the only theoretically unbreakable code is the One Time Pad method, and the theory only says it is undecipherable provided you don't tamper with or moderate its output in any way. There is no reason why its output should not be the same as the plaintext: so you put in D Day will be on 6 June, and that is also, according to the rules, your ciphertext. What do you do?kinabalu said:
If I start tossing a coin and the 1st 100 are heads, ok, so that exact sequence HHHHHHH etc is no more unlikely with a fair coin than any other exact sequence HTHHTHHT etc. Nevertheless I'd strongly suspect a bent coin. Are you saying I'd be wrong to suspect that?FrancisUrquhart said:
Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not SurprisingJBriskin3 said:
How many many heads in a row out of interest?FrancisUrquhart said:Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk
I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.
I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf
Here is a more accessible take,
https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html0 -
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says no new restrictions will be imposed "at this stage" after Omicron discovery0
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In Norway they say they do have 4 seasons, but winter is 6 months and the others 2 months each.IshmaelZ said:
Denialism. What is autumnal about today, with leaves and fruit and harvests a distant memory?algarkirk said:
No; next winter, 21-22, starts either on Wednesday (1 Dec) or (my preferred date) 21 Dec. As of today we are in late autumn. Winter is long enough without extending it.Leon said:
Yes. Indeed. Whenever she writes I just get a vision of perpetual winter. That's probably the reasonrcs1000 said:
Won't next winter be 22/23?Leon said:The eldritch doctor from Edinburgh has spoke
"Last winter was particularly bad. This winter will be bad, but not to the same degree. The hope is that by the spring, and definitely by next winter, we will be in a strong position to manage this disease through testing, vaccines and antiviral therapies. But, if nothing else, Omicron has shown that all humans on this planet are in the same boat (albeit in different cabins with differential access to vaccines), and the pandemic will only be over when it’s over in all parts of the world. Not just in Britain."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/28/omicron-covid-variant-britain-southern-africa
Nothing to worry about, this will probably be over, or at least manageable, by NEXT winter, ie 2024
On the other hand, she is arguably being too cheerful. We have no idea how this winter will pan out. It could be BAD BAD BAD
"In Scandinavia, winter in one tradition begins on 14 October and ends on the last day of February" which sounds about right to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter#Astronomical_and_other_calendar-based_reckoning0 -
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful0 -
Well of course they are, but moderated by human experience and culture and language, which way predate any understanding of how the cosmos might work, never mind the internet. What privileges your literal-minded reductionism over the multitude of other possible approaches here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter#Astronomical_and_other_calendar-based_reckoningAnabobazina said:
Nope. Because the coldest three months are 10 Dec to 10 Mar. And as I have stated above the seasons are set by the cosmos, not blokes on the internet. November is not winter.IshmaelZ said:
Which it is. QED.Anabobazina said:
Yes that is what I’m saying - it’s thermal lag that makes the solstices a good stab… otherwise ‘winter’ would be the three darkest months (mid Nov to mid Feb)IshmaelZ said:
No they aren't, because I can guarantee we had the concepts of the seasons tens of thousands of years before we understood what an equinox or a solstice are. There is a fit of a sort, but it's crops which have mattered to mankind since forever. Winter is the bit between when you've harvested everything, and you can start planting stuff again.Anabobazina said:Winter and the seasons generally are set by the cosmos and neither government agencies nor blokes on the internet.
Winter therefore begins on 21 Dec, the winter solstice. It’s not a bad stab at the thermal seasons either, which would run roughly 10th Dec to 10th Mar due to seasonal lag.
That it is snowing today is irrelevant: snow is possible in autumn just as heatwaves and blizzards are possible in spring.
ETA and thermal lag is a lag; "as the day lengthens, the cold strengthens", which would push your thermal winter later, not earlier, than the solstice.
0 -
The first two of those I support dumping even if I don't support this Government. The triple lock is simply a bribe to a client vote. The FTPA was always a waste of time anyway. The Overseas Aid changes are unsupportable.No_Offence_Alan said:
Yes, this administration has actively prioritised reversing policies of the 2010-2015 administration.Mexicanpete said:
JohnsonIan Governments have only been in play for two years, so the longevity clause doesn't apply. What went on before felt very, very different.HYUFD said:
There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re electedNickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
FTPA, Triple Lock, 0.7% GNP for overseas aid etc.3 -
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
0 -
Well that looks like a lame political stunt. There's a lot of sympathy for the view MPs should have less confidence in him, but the explanation does not even make senseFrancisUrquhart said:BBC News - SNP to table Boris Johnson 'no confidence' motion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59453488
The Conservative administration has a working majority of 77 seats in the House of Commons, meaning it is unlikely Mr Blackford's motion will pass.
However, the SNP MP said it was important the prime minister was held to account, saying: "Unless he faces consequences for his disastrous actions, he won't just think he's gotten away with the mess he has made of the last few months - he will think he can do it all over again".
If he will win the vote he won't have been 'held to account' or 'faced consequences' for his actions, so presumably the vote will in fact prove to him he can 'do it all over again'.
Most of the non-discretionary spending with local councils is taken up with increasing adult social care costs.state_go_away said:
Yes the more tax we pay the less service we get !moonshine said:
Seemingly my council “no longer offers this service”.IshmaelZ said:
And 'tis a freebie for the man from the council to come and fix them, provided you are purely domestic and don't have chickens or whatevermoonshine said:
Yeah that’s what I figured. And if they’re in the garden and we get snow, they might rather like coming indoors to find some warmth and cheese.Foxy said:
If you see one rat, there are probably a dozen unseen.moonshine said:I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.
Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?0 -
There’s nothing, in theory, wrong with accas- you just need to make sure you’re getting decent odds. Beware bookies who cream additional juice from multiple odds. Currently I’m having fun with “kwiff” - on weekends they boost odds on PL accas above the market (betfair) odds.state_go_away said:Probability is why bookies love accas in that people overestimate massively say 6 plausible results all coming in at once and thus think they are worth betting on . They get stung once in a blue moon - Dettori day being one occasion of course
0 -
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb0 -
Ah ok, the drip drip. Maybe I was confusing it with you wanting evens privately on here. That being the one we didn't do as opposed to the one we did on how the GE plays for Starm ... sorry I should talk your language when I'm in your space ... for "Sir Keir".isam said:
11/8 - I didn't have one big bet, just had £25-£50 a week for a while. Managed to back 2.8 last week, I don't really get why they have come in to 2.6 nowkinabalu said:
You're on at evens, aren't you?isam said:Tend to agree with the thread header
The onslaught of anti govt tweets in the comments and Opinium based thread headers would make an impartial observer think this was done and dusted, and the Tories goners - you only have to have been a PBer from 2010-15, or look at the 83, 87, 92, 15 GE polling to see how these narratives are usually just noise
"To top up or not to top up", this is the question you are no doubt asking yourself - and indeed might have answered for all I know.0 -
That’ll do. Typical English summer weather.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful0 -
If Xi Variant renders the vaccines ineffective meaning we will need new lockdowns, no one has told Cyril. Pretty much his only response in his speech to the nation is to beg and cajole his people into getting vaccinated. Hopefully this means Leon can relax a bit on this Sunday evening.FrancisUrquhart said:South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says no new restrictions will be imposed "at this stage" after Omicron discovery
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/breaking-will-lockdown-laws-change-south-africa-cyril-ramaphosa/0 -
Would be sailing so a feature not bug. Never been tho.Leon said:
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb
I once swam in an unheated pool in Luxor in January and FCUK it was cold.
0 -
I agree that a Labour overall majority is unlikely in 2024, but not because of what happened in 2019. I think it is because they have an unconvincing leader, no obvious program, have nothing whatever to say to Scotland, are facing an unhelpful boundary review and are up against a pretty talented if flawed political operator.NickPalmer said:
Yes, if you're observing a specific thing. The underlying question is whether they're the same thing at all. For example, you're including an election when universal franchise didn't yet exist (I think female non-property owners only got the vote in 1927?).Fishing said:
26 is not particularly tiny for a time series regression like this!NickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes,HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
Clearly the previous election is relevant, though - it's a starting point and mostly the same people are still around, so it is indeed almost the same thing. Hence why we all agree that a Labour overall majority is unlikely. Beyond that, I don't think any of us have much clue, and the betting markets reflect that.0 -
Not for me. If I am gonna make the enormous effort of fighting Omicron Era Travel Regs and escaping the Lockdown 4 Gestapo I want a proper reward. Tropical sunshine. Shirtsleeve evenings. Gin and tonic under the starsMoonRabbit said:
That’ll do. Typical English summer weather.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
Oh god, I've missed it
*sob*
0 -
I watched Red Notice today. Fine action movie! Just before an obviously brilliant chase through Rome in Alfa Romero suddenly something so bloody hilarious happens that I’m still laughing.
Netflix make cool stuff.1 -
I would spend December and January in Palm Springs if I could - plenty of sunshine, low 20s by day, the evenings can be cool but nothing of any concern.Leon said:
Normally, I head out to hot sunshine for at least 6 weeks of the wintry 12. Usually Bangkok for 3-4 weeks with a fortnight somewhere weirderstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
Last winter was the first full British winter I have endured for probably 2 decades. So it was a shock anyway. Then add in lockdown, and the particularly miserable weather....0 -
Some number crunching on Omicron the Vengeful
Bad but not awful
Forecasts from
@metaculus
on Omicron:
R0 7.38
14.5% daily growth rate advantage over Delta
Dominant (>50%) strain in the US 28 March
33% chance that it's deadlier than Delta
55% chance the US, UK, or EU authorise Omicron-specific booster before 2023
https://twitter.com/StefanFSchubert/status/1465017996246667265?s=20
0 -
Here you go @Leon 3 Jan to 8 March in the Caribbean, tax-free bars throughout - right up your street!Leon said:
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb
https://www.pocruises.com/find-a-cruise/R401/R4010 -
Yes they didn't go nearly far enough. Giving any aid at all through taxes while there are any number of charities that people can give to if they want is unsupportable.Richard_Tyndall said:
The first two of those I support dumping even if I don't support this Government. The triple lock is simply a bribe to a client vote. The FTPA was always a waste of time anyway. The Overseas Aid changes are unsupportable.No_Offence_Alan said:
Yes, this administration has actively prioritised reversing policies of the 2010-2015 administration.Mexicanpete said:
JohnsonIan Governments have only been in play for two years, so the longevity clause doesn't apply. What went on before felt very, very different.HYUFD said:
There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re electedNickPalmer said:
Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?HYUFD said:Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.
Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.
In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.
FTPA, Triple Lock, 0.7% GNP for overseas aid etc.1 -
Same in Bangkok. Dark cooler nights can make unheated swimming pools remarkably chilly. Even if it hits 28C by day (which it will do, in both places)IshmaelZ said:
Would be sailing so a feature not bug. Never been tho.Leon said:
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb
I once swam in an unheated pool in Luxor in January and FCUK it was cold.
Price you pay for pleasant, unsticky evenings0 -
We should stick with 'Omicron' until it earns its spurs as a real frightener. If we've gone OMICRON already we leave ourselves nowhere to go.Leon said:
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb1 -
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1464881114108022785
Does anyone seriously want to try and defend this?1 -
Yes, pros do singles.state_go_away said:Probability is why bookies love accas in that people overestimate massively say 6 plausible results all coming in at once and thus think they are worth betting on . They get stung once in a blue moon - Dettori day being one occasion of course
One exception: If you can get an acca on with events that are subtly linked.0 -
Rather than moral high horsing about it, the left would do well to help come up with workable solutions. Because if none are found, those numbers indicate you might before too long end up with a government that you find to be multiples less to your liking than the current one.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1464881114108022785
Does anyone seriously want to try and defend this?2 -
My reaction was, what relevance do the HRA and treaties have to your actual refugee casting off from near Wimereux if there is little or no border control in the way of boots on the ground?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1464881114108022785
Does anyone seriously want to try and defend this?0 -
Those views are almost certainly majority views in the whole electorate, but luckily for you none of the political parties will ever take real action to address those wishes.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1464881114108022785
Does anyone seriously want to try and defend this?0 -
Lack of ambitione there - we've got:kinabalu said:
We should stick with 'Omicron' until it earns its spurs as a real frightener. If we've gone OMICRON already we leave ourselves nowhere to go.Leon said:
Hah. I have just been looking at the same!IshmaelZ said:
Was thinking Cape Verde in Feb until 4 days ago. A bugger to get to though.Leon said:
Even the Canaries are iffy in Jan or Feb. Often overcast, coolish, drizzlyIshmaelZ said:
Spain is way too far north, unless you count the Canariesstodge said:
Winter has been at this time of year for quite a while - if you loathe it so much, as a man of means by no means, can't you abscond for three months to somewhere warmer - southern Spain or Palm Springs?Leon said:Oh, I hate winter with a passion. Having it kick off in late Nov is not great. It also extends into early March, very often
Remember last winter/spring? Jesus fuckin Christ. That endless cold and grey which crept into May..... Awful
I've never been. Google says it is windy?
Back to Egypt maybe. OMICRON willing. Quite easy to get to. Outstanding climate in Luxor and Aswan in Jan and Feb
OMICRON0 -
It's not difficult to do, if you wanted to. For example: the treaties are clearly counterproductive, because all they're doing is putting money in the pockets of people smugglers, while making it much harder for genuine refugees to get a hearing. Ergo, the treaties need to be overhauled, and if that can't be done quickly, ignored.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1464881114108022785
Does anyone seriously want to try and defend this?1
