Betting on another CON majority – Part 2 – politicalbetting.com

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Betting on another CON majority – Part 2 – politicalbetting.com

This is the second part of a thread on estimating Conservative seat numbers at the next election.  It contains statistical analysis: those not interested can skip to the Conclusion.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am trying to work out which is more dull, the world bore draw due to super computer championship of Chess or the Beatles documentary.

Dunno. Does the Beatles documentary consist of exactly the same piece of footage repeated fourteen times?

Does the incomplete chorus of the same song being tootled on a guitar inbetween Paul McCartney ordering this lunch count?

Depends on what else (if anything) happens and how often this is repeated. One would need to see the Beatles documentary to offer a truly informed opinion. And no, I'm not volunteering.

NB Chess championship game three ends in a draw. I'm shocked.

I don't see the point of human chess championships now we know that computers can play the game better, more elegantly, more cleverly and creatively

It's a bit like favouring the Paralympics over the Olympics

Computers also can, or shortly will be able to, knap flint or, random example, write novels better than us too. The human element may at least add some drama.

I have recently purchased some fantastic 1/1 art that was generated after I told an AI what sort of picture I wanted.

I was so impressed, I actually bought the ability to work with the AI on a monthly basis to create more.

Do you have a link for the AI art ?

https://www.artaigallery.com/

https://www.artaigallery.com/collections/all-items/nature

It is particularly good at landscape.

They have now pivoted to crypto / NFT space, where you can basically purchase a token to interface with their AI machine to generate your own. It is a fantastic, if expensive, experience, where you can type in a phrase and some modifiers about roughly describing what you want, and it pumps out some fantastic stuff.

Some of that is crap, some is kitsch, some is compelling and some is properly beautiful - and drawn by a computer?

It is also quite scary. And jolly interesting. Ta

GPT4 or 5 will give such a good impression of real general AL we will, for all intents and purposes, consider them conscious and intelligent, while not quite knowing whether they actually are, or not

Yes, its not perfect, some of it is rubbish, like GPT-x, you have to select from some rubbish, but it can produce some great stuff. I have had access for about a month and they people behind it have already significantly improved it.

Having spoken to them, basically they said if say all we did was train it for landscape of a certain limited set of styles it would be far better, but we have tried to develop a generalized system that can do all sorts of styles and subjects and all via some word / phrase input.

I should make it clear as well, this isn't my new venture that has kept me offline from PB or anything. I am not here trying to plug my own thing.

Do they train against human art?

Yes.

Do you know roughly what metrics it uses to build up an image? Does it 'repaint' a photo or is taking the essence of a chunk of works and use that to produce another?

Although the developers are obviously some what secretive about their exact approach, as their algorithm is not open-source or a copy of anything out there, it is not trying to repaint a photo, no. You can provide any text you like, including foreign languages and things like emoji's and it will produce a 1/1 painting. It is a combination of two learning algorithms, one which has learned to paint from 10,000 of existing art, combined with an AI that has learned the meaning of words / phrases.

GPT3 can, infamously, draw surreal but accurate images - never drawn before - simply from hearing a verbal description

https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1346554999241809920?s=20

What is so striking here is that the developers of GPT3 never expected it to have this facility. It just emerged

This is basically the same as this AI I have access to, but you get the subtly of art e.g. things like the brush strokes. Also, I have full ownership of the IP of any art I generate. If I wanted I could start selling a load of prints / posters etc, but I actually got it because I was interested in the project and in the market for some unique art, as I move into a new house early next year and office based now.

FrancisUrquhart

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to address the nation on coronavirus at 8 p.m. (1 p.m. ET)

NEW: UK reports 3rd confirmed case of new coronavirus variant, along with "dozens" of suspected cases - FT

maaarsh

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

FrancisUrquhart

Officials said the case was linked to travel to southern Africa, where the variant was identified, but the individual was no longer in the UK. The agency said the individual spent time in Westminster, central London.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59453744

Malmesbury

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

The rate of increase of cases has been tailing off for a while. Hence -



Running the latest numbers now....

FrancisUrquhart

Cardiff's hopes of flying out of South Africa on Sunday are over after two positive Covid-19 cases were confirmed in their squad.

The club confirmed one of the cases is suspected to be the Omicron variant that sparked travel restrictions on flights from South Africa to the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/59453328

Wasn't some politician demanding they were repatriated immediately before the ban can into place?

JBriskin3

So five more years of Bozo!

Suck it up lefties.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

maaarsh

Malmesbury said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

The rate of increase of cases has been tailing off for a while. Hence -



Running the latest numbers now....

Yep, I noticed Monday the 22nd was struggling to get above the 15th, sort of surprised we didn't get reporting day falls earlier than we have. Just have to hope they were early enough that they won't be concocted in to a claimed success of the latest infrigements on people's liberties.

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date

TOPPING

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Just been out and about. In a provincial shopping centre (don't ask). No mask wearing (10%) in and out of shops. Can't see how people will be motivated/threatened to start wearing them again.

Malmesbury

UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

Malmesbury

Local R

FrancisUrquhart

Chess Grandmaster Dutch #1 World Top 10....

RIP Classical Chess
(born 1500CE - died every press conference of the World Championship match after a short draw)

https://twitter.com/anishgiri/status/1464988214142410761?s=20

Malmesbury

Case summary

Malmesbury

Hospitals

pigeon

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

Malmesbury

Deaths

Malmesbury

Age related data

Malmesbury

Age related data scaled to 100K

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

MightyAlex

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am trying to work out which is more dull, the world bore draw due to super computer championship of Chess or the Beatles documentary.

Dunno. Does the Beatles documentary consist of exactly the same piece of footage repeated fourteen times?

Does the incomplete chorus of the same song being tootled on a guitar inbetween Paul McCartney ordering this lunch count?

Depends on what else (if anything) happens and how often this is repeated. One would need to see the Beatles documentary to offer a truly informed opinion. And no, I'm not volunteering.

NB Chess championship game three ends in a draw. I'm shocked.

I don't see the point of human chess championships now we know that computers can play the game better, more elegantly, more cleverly and creatively

It's a bit like favouring the Paralympics over the Olympics

Computers also can, or shortly will be able to, knap flint or, random example, write novels better than us too. The human element may at least add some drama.

I have recently purchased some fantastic 1/1 art that was generated after I told an AI what sort of picture I wanted.

I was so impressed, I actually bought the ability to work with the AI on a monthly basis to create more.

Do you have a link for the AI art ?

https://www.artaigallery.com/

https://www.artaigallery.com/collections/all-items/nature

It is particularly good at landscape.

They have now pivoted to crypto / NFT space, where you can basically purchase a token to interface with their AI machine to generate your own. It is a fantastic, if expensive, experience, where you can type in a phrase and some modifiers about roughly describing what you want, and it pumps out some fantastic stuff.

Some of that is crap, some is kitsch, some is compelling and some is properly beautiful - and drawn by a computer?

It is also quite scary. And jolly interesting. Ta

GPT4 or 5 will give such a good impression of real general AL we will, for all intents and purposes, consider them conscious and intelligent, while not quite knowing whether they actually are, or not

Yes, its not perfect, some of it is rubbish, like GPT-x, you have to select from some rubbish, but it can produce some great stuff. I have had access for about a month and they people behind it have already significantly improved it.

Having spoken to them, basically they said if say all we did was train it for landscape of a certain limited set of styles it would be far better, but we have tried to develop a generalized system that can do all sorts of styles and subjects and all via some word / phrase input.

I should make it clear as well, this isn't my new venture that has kept me offline from PB or anything. I am not here trying to plug my own thing.

Do they train against human art?

Yes.

Do you know roughly what metrics it uses to build up an image? Does it 'repaint' a photo or is taking the essence of a chunk of works and use that to produce another?

Although the developers are obviously some what secretive about their exact approach, as their algorithm is not open-source or a copy of anything out there, it is not trying to repaint a photo, no. You can provide any text you like, including foreign languages and things like emoji's and it will produce a 1/1 painting. It is a combination of two learning algorithms, one which has learned to paint from 10,000 of existing art, combined with an AI that has learned the meaning of words / phrases.

You can point it toward wanting basically a new monet style painting, or be more general e.g. luminism but you can also let it choose.

Cheers!

If I was an artist I would be feeling a little aggrieved that some micro-aspect of my works was being used from their database. Maybe royalties are due to the long suffering creatives?

There are millions of images of art that are royalty free to use and they aren't trying to sell those images, so I image any issues of royalties are null and void.

Yes, for sure. What interests me in painting is you can almost see some reflection of the artists brain in their work. Their thought patterns and styles. When I paint I see similar patterns appearing and further reinforcing themselves. But also new ones being developed when I have to think about about a new idea.

I'm, sure the AI does simillar things. Yet, it has been designed to do so. Say a bridge appears in its work that looks similar to a bridge on one of the database paintings is it copying? Does it amalgamate all the pictures of bridges it sees and produce some average?

HYUFD

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

maaarsh

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

FrancisUrquhart

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MightyAlex said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

another_richard said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

pigeon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am trying to work out which is more dull, the world bore draw due to super computer championship of Chess or the Beatles documentary.

Dunno. Does the Beatles documentary consist of exactly the same piece of footage repeated fourteen times?

Does the incomplete chorus of the same song being tootled on a guitar inbetween Paul McCartney ordering this lunch count?

Depends on what else (if anything) happens and how often this is repeated. One would need to see the Beatles documentary to offer a truly informed opinion. And no, I'm not volunteering.

NB Chess championship game three ends in a draw. I'm shocked.

I don't see the point of human chess championships now we know that computers can play the game better, more elegantly, more cleverly and creatively

It's a bit like favouring the Paralympics over the Olympics

Computers also can, or shortly will be able to, knap flint or, random example, write novels better than us too. The human element may at least add some drama.

I have recently purchased some fantastic 1/1 art that was generated after I told an AI what sort of picture I wanted.

I was so impressed, I actually bought the ability to work with the AI on a monthly basis to create more.

Do you have a link for the AI art ?

https://www.artaigallery.com/

https://www.artaigallery.com/collections/all-items/nature

It is particularly good at landscape.

They have now pivoted to crypto / NFT space, where you can basically purchase a token to interface with their AI machine to generate your own. It is a fantastic, if expensive, experience, where you can type in a phrase and some modifiers about roughly describing what you want, and it pumps out some fantastic stuff.

Some of that is crap, some is kitsch, some is compelling and some is properly beautiful - and drawn by a computer?

It is also quite scary. And jolly interesting. Ta

GPT4 or 5 will give such a good impression of real general AL we will, for all intents and purposes, consider them conscious and intelligent, while not quite knowing whether they actually are, or not

Yes, its not perfect, some of it is rubbish, like GPT-x, you have to select from some rubbish, but it can produce some great stuff. I have had access for about a month and they people behind it have already significantly improved it.

Having spoken to them, basically they said if say all we did was train it for landscape of a certain limited set of styles it would be far better, but we have tried to develop a generalized system that can do all sorts of styles and subjects and all via some word / phrase input.

I should make it clear as well, this isn't my new venture that has kept me offline from PB or anything. I am not here trying to plug my own thing.

Do they train against human art?

Yes.

Do you know roughly what metrics it uses to build up an image? Does it 'repaint' a photo or is taking the essence of a chunk of works and use that to produce another?

Although the developers are obviously some what secretive about their exact approach, as their algorithm is not open-source or a copy of anything out there, it is not trying to repaint a photo, no. You can provide any text you like, including foreign languages and things like emoji's and it will produce a 1/1 painting. It is a combination of two learning algorithms, one which has learned to paint from 10,000 of existing art, combined with an AI that has learned the meaning of words / phrases.

You can point it toward wanting basically a new monet style painting, or be more general e.g. luminism but you can also let it choose.

Cheers!

If I was an artist I would be feeling a little aggrieved that some micro-aspect of my works was being used from their database. Maybe royalties are due to the long suffering creatives?

There are millions of images of art that are royalty free to use and they aren't trying to sell those images, so I image any issues of royalties are null and void.

Yes, for sure. What interests me in painting is you can almost see some reflection of the artists brain in their work. Their thought patterns and styles. When I paint I see similar patterns appearing and further reinforcing themselves. But also new ones being developed when I have to think about about a new idea.

I'm, sure the AI does simillar things. Yet, it has been designed to do so. Say a bridge appears in its work that looks similar to a bridge on one of the database paintings is it copying? Does it amalgamate all the pictures of bridges it sees and produce some average?

My experience is I have seen it do different things. Sometimes it definitely looks quite similar / inspired by, others it is an average, and some times it goes too far and makes a massive blurry mess as it is clearly trying to average a number of competing ways of painting / drawing an object e.g. I have seen this specific issue when trying to paint sail boats, it is common for it to make a bit of a blurry mess of the sails and not in an "artistic style" kind of way.

FrancisUrquhart

Awkward....on the first day of the Jewish festival Hanukkah...

Asked if West Ham boss David Moyes had selected a defensive side against the Premier League champions, Cole replied: "You can say he has gone a bit negative. Why not?

"You've got to give Man City some respect otherwise you're going to get picked off.

"Otherwise it will be a Holocaust and you don't want that."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/59448567

SandyRentool

37681 cases. You know what that means...

https://www.class37.co.uk/imagepage.aspx?strnumber=jp37681

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

moonshine

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward....on the first day of the Jewish festival Hanukkah...

Asked if West Ham boss David Moyes had selected a defensive side against the Premier League champions, Cole replied: "You can say he has gone a bit negative. Why not?

"You've got to give Man City some respect otherwise you're going to get picked off.

"Otherwise it will be a Holocaust and you don't want that."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/59448567

It would have been more controversial if he had said you do want a Holocaust.

Carnyx

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue doesn't tell you that at all.

You're forgetting employees and staff. Who mostly live there and will show up.

Remember Cheltenham races and the discussion here.

Edit: just seen your caveat about timing. Quite so.

The above however also applies to local pubs, hotels, etc.

JBriskin3

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

isam

Tend to agree with the thread header

The onslaught of anti govt tweets in the comments and Opinium based thread headers would make an impartial observer think this was done and dusted, and the Tories goners - you only have to have been a PBer from 2010-15, or look at the 83, 87, 92, 15 GE polling to see how these narratives are usually just noise

Malmesbury

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

Because of the way the colour ranges work, as you zoom in and out on that map, all kinds of patterns appear and disappear.

FrancisUrquhart

Carnyx said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue doesn't tell you that at all.

You're forgetting employees and staff. Who mostly live there and will show up.

Remember Cheltenham races and the discussion here.

I doubt most minimum wage employees who staff those events can afford to live next to Twickers. They will be travelling to the event like most of the punters, most likely from a range of poorer areas of London.

pigeon

maaarsh said:

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

Many if not most people detest masks and the Government knows it. They are a nuisance to wear and to carry about; businesses don't want the burden of having customers stay away as a result, or being obliged to force people who turn up without them either to wear them or to go away.

Once ministers no longer feel the need to transmit this is serious/something must be done-type signals then they'll be gone again.

moonshine

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

HYUFD

JBriskin3 said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.

Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again

JosiasJessop

SandyRentool said:

37681 cases. You know what that means...

https://www.class37.co.uk/imagepage.aspx?strnumber=jp37681

Pwwoooahh! Pure Porn!

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

Cheltenham was surely a super-spreading event. Not because of the actual races, they were outdoors, but because of all the crowding-into-bars and restaurants and trains, and so on, in and around the venue

Ditto the euros this year. All that gathering in bars and homes. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this?

What we don't know is whether the Saffers at Twickers had Omicron, in any great amount. Were there even that many there?

FrancisUrquhart

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

Realistically, how many South Africans flew all the way over to watch an Autumn friendly which is nearly impossible to get a ticket for if you don't already have contacts within the UK rugby scene / sponsors? And how many are rather those that already live in London?

Leon

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

Because of the way the colour ranges work, as you zoom in and out on that map, all kinds of patterns appear and disappear.

Yes, I've noticed that. Intriguing

Nonetheless even at the highest resolution southwest London is positively enpurpled with cases, like an engorged and throbbing gland, unlike the cheerful, Covid free blues of beautiful north London, which resemble perfect winter skies

JosiasJessop

TOPPING said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Just been out and about. In a provincial shopping centre (don't ask). No mask wearing (10%) in and out of shops. Can't see how people will be motivated/threatened to start wearing them again.

This is an occasion where anecdata seems to match an individual's views. In the shops I go in, mask usage seems to be well over 50% - much more in the local supermarket.

Monkeys

JBriskin3 said:

So five more years of Bozo!

Suck it up lefties.

He might get bored and wander off, midway through PMQ's. I expect he might in the next parliament.

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

Cheltenham was surely a super-spreading event. Not because of the actual races, they were outdoors, but because of all the crowding-into-bars and restaurants and trains, and so on, in and around the venue

Ditto the euros this year. All that gathering in bars and homes. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this?

What we don't know is whether the Saffers at Twickers had Omicron, in any great amount. Were there even that many there?

If I remember correctly though when you actually looked at the spike in cases, it wasn't in the area directly around the race course, because punters and staff travel to the location. In fact wasn't there a fake map that somebody "leaked" and the media ran with that had to be corrected.

Charles

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward....on the first day of the Jewish festival Hanukkah...

Asked if West Ham boss David Moyes had selected a defensive side against the Premier League champions, Cole replied: "You can say he has gone a bit negative. Why not?

"You've got to give Man City some respect otherwise you're going to get picked off.

"Otherwise it will be a Holocaust and you don't want that."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/59448567

It would have been more controversial if he had said you do want a Holocaust.

Who uses that simile thought?

“A massacre” would be a normal way of describing the sentiment

Malmesbury

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

Because of the way the colour ranges work, as you zoom in and out on that map, all kinds of patterns appear and disappear.

Yes, I've noticed that. Intriguing

Not really - just an artefact of the way that, to reduce computational load, as you zoom out, smaller scale stuff is not computed.

moonshine

HYUFD said:

JBriskin3 said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.

Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again

If that had happened, who would the tories have chosen in 1992 as leader and how would they have fared in the 1997/8 election?

Would Kinnock have chosen brown as chancellor after John Smith’s death? Would he have snaffled Blair’s career before it has barely begun?

What price would Pants Down have extracted for support in the coalition? Might he have had a path to PM in an election or two?

another_richard

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

Given that the match was on 20/11 and the period covered on the map is w/e 23/11 then there wouldn't be an effect yet.

Not to mention that many of MSOAs around Twickenham show falling levels of infection.

moonshine

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

Realistically, how many South Africans flew all the way over to watch an Autumn friendly which is nearly impossible to get a ticket for if you don't already have contacts within the UK rugby scene / sponsors? And how many are rather those that already live in London?

Dunno. I know someone that did.

Anabobazina

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Indeed this is a clear and present risk to offering concessionary restrictions: those who advocate for restrictions always agitate for more.

FrancisUrquhart

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

Realistically, how many South Africans flew all the way over to watch an Autumn friendly which is nearly impossible to get a ticket for if you don't already have contacts within the UK rugby scene / sponsors? And how many are rather those that already live in London?

Dunno. I know someone that did.

Realistically it has to be absolutely tiny number. Also, those that did, they surely would have have come as part of an organized tour for more than one of the matches, so if they had the nu nu variant on arrival, I imagine they will have already done their spreading before that, as played a number of games over the course of November.

moonshine

Charles said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward....on the first day of the Jewish festival Hanukkah...

Asked if West Ham boss David Moyes had selected a defensive side against the Premier League champions, Cole replied: "You can say he has gone a bit negative. Why not?

"You've got to give Man City some respect otherwise you're going to get picked off.

"Otherwise it will be a Holocaust and you don't want that."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/59448567

It would have been more controversial if he had said you do want a Holocaust.

Who uses that simile thought?

“A massacre” would be a normal way of describing the sentiment

Someone without media training (or much in the way of formal education) looking for a hyperbolic thing to say on telly. Hopefully that’s the end of it anyway, I’m sure the lad meant no harm.

moonshine

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

Realistically, how many South Africans flew all the way over to watch an Autumn friendly which is nearly impossible to get a ticket for if you don't already have contacts within the UK rugby scene / sponsors? And how many are rather those that already live in London?

Dunno. I know someone that did.

Realistically it has to be absolutely tiny number. Also, I would have though those that did, would they not have come for all the matches?

People like doing intercontinental jollies at their employers expense so often these trips are short. No jetlag from SA either so it’s very doable.

Alphabet_Soup

FPT

Leon said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

We have relatives from the USA arriving on 23rd December. What are they supposed to do? It will be just as tricky for them returning on 28th as the US requires a negative test 48 hours beforehand.

I really really hope I am wrong, but my honest guess is that they won't be coming. In about 3 weeks no one will be going anywhere.

Maybe prepare yourself for that possibility, practically and emotionally, and if I am wrong (yay!!) then feel free to come on here and mock me, mercilessly. I won't mind because I will be knee deep in champagne, celebrating the fact that Omicron was a needless mass panic

You're almost certainly correct. It was a daft idea to come to the UK for 4 days over xmas. We will also be knee-deep in champagne. Every cloud...

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

Cheltenham was surely a super-spreading event. Not because of the actual races, they were outdoors, but because of all the crowding-into-bars and restaurants and trains, and so on, in and around the venue

Ditto the euros this year. All that gathering in bars and homes. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this?

What we don't know is whether the Saffers at Twickers had Omicron, in any great amount. Were there even that many there?

If I remember correctly though when you actually looked at the spike in cases, it wasn't in the area directly around the race course, because punters and staff travel to the location. In fact wasn't there a fake map that somebody "leaked" and the media ran with that had to be corrected.

No one disputes that the euros caused a surge in cases. The pattern was repeated in various places across Europe. Because of all the people crowding into bars and living rooms (where it was allowed)

"Covid: surge in Scottish cases raises Euro 2020 safety concerns
Public Health Scotland data shows 1,991 people who later tested positive had attended one or more Euro 2020 events"


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/30/surge-in-scottish-covid-cases-raises-euro-2020-safety-concerns

"Surge in Covid cases among English men in their 20s - coinciding with Euro 2020"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-covid-cases-among-english-24546468

Why should Cheltenham be uniquely different, do they not drink at the Cheltenham Festival? I am sure I can recall Topping post from there, completely pissed to the gills, so I suspect it is not a teetotal event

These things cause surges, they just do

Foxy

Some interesting work by @Fishing but don't the stats require event outcomes to be independent? And is that true of General Elections?

There are some exceptions (2010, 1997, 1966, 1945) but mostly elections are pretty correlated with the previous one. In those 4 years there was a shift in the zeitgeist.

If we reckon the result is one of the normal years then Con majority is under valued, but if it is a change of tide against Johnson perhaps not. I am not betting on this market yet.

JBriskin3

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

JBriskin3 said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.

Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again

If that had happened, who would the tories have chosen in 1992 as leader and how would they have fared in the 1997/8 election?

Would Kinnock have chosen brown as chancellor after John Smith’s death? Would he have snaffled Blair’s career before it has barely begun?

What price would Pants Down have extracted for support in the coalition? Might he have had a path to PM in an election or two?

Ashdown, like Clegg, had no route to No 10

Junior coalition partners always get shafted at the polls.

FrancisUrquhart

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

I imagine lots of people that live in the area watch the match in pubs and bars near the stadium. Which before and after the match would have been filled with visiting saffas. But so far no sign of Xi Variant in west London.

Realistically, how many South Africans flew all the way over to watch an Autumn friendly which is nearly impossible to get a ticket for if you don't already have contacts within the UK rugby scene / sponsors? And how many are rather those that already live in London?

Dunno. I know someone that did.

Realistically it has to be absolutely tiny number. Also, I would have though those that did, would they not have come for all the matches?

People like doing intercontinental jollies at their employers expense so often these trips are short. No jetlag from SA either so it’s very doable.

I still think we are talking tiny numbers, this isn't like a Champions League match in the footy where the club gets 1000s of tickets and all the hardcore supporters get flown out for the day or a race festival that goes on for a couple of weeks and people pop over from Ireland.

Anabobazina

maaarsh said:

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

It’s a fair point. I mean, I’m not personally that bothered about mask mandates in shops, as I don’t shop for pleasure. I only go into shops to buy food and - once a year - gifts. But, I’m conscious that shopping is for many millions of people a leisure activity. As you say, those sorts of relatively minor restrictions can hang around for ever.

Couldn’t we just have made mask wearing in shops advisory, and offered FF3s to the vulnerable? I still see lots of old ladies with flimsy fabric masks - which only have a moderate effect.

another_richard

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

Expect to hear ever shriller claims that hospitals are 'overrun' and 'swamped' with covid patients.

Plus straight lies about the number of covid patients currently compared with a year ago.

isam

Charles said:

moonshine said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward....on the first day of the Jewish festival Hanukkah...

Asked if West Ham boss David Moyes had selected a defensive side against the Premier League champions, Cole replied: "You can say he has gone a bit negative. Why not?

"You've got to give Man City some respect otherwise you're going to get picked off.

"Otherwise it will be a Holocaust and you don't want that."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/59448567

It would have been more controversial if he had said you do want a Holocaust.

Who uses that simile thought?

“A massacre” would be a normal way of describing the sentiment

Joey Barton used it the other day too - I reckon they meant "horror show", or at least Carlton Cole did

FrancisUrquhart

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

Cheltenham was surely a super-spreading event. Not because of the actual races, they were outdoors, but because of all the crowding-into-bars and restaurants and trains, and so on, in and around the venue

Ditto the euros this year. All that gathering in bars and homes. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this?

What we don't know is whether the Saffers at Twickers had Omicron, in any great amount. Were there even that many there?

If I remember correctly though when you actually looked at the spike in cases, it wasn't in the area directly around the race course, because punters and staff travel to the location. In fact wasn't there a fake map that somebody "leaked" and the media ran with that had to be corrected.

No one disputes that the euros caused a surge in cases. The pattern was repeated in various places across Europe. Because of all the people crowding into bars and living rooms (where it was allowed)

"Covid: surge in Scottish cases raises Euro 2020 safety concerns
Public Health Scotland data shows 1,991 people who later tested positive had attended one or more Euro 2020 events"


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/30/surge-in-scottish-covid-cases-raises-euro-2020-safety-concerns

"Surge in Covid cases among English men in their 20s - coinciding with Euro 2020"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-covid-cases-among-english-24546468

Why should Cheltenham be uniquely different, do they not drink at the Cheltenham Festival? I am sure I can recall Topping post from there, completely pissed to the gills, so I suspect it is not a teetotal event

These things cause surges, they just do

That wasn't my point....my point was you can't say that from looking at a small region surrounding a venue a few days after. And we didn't see that at Cheltenham, there was a fake map that alleged to show it, but it was debunked.

another_richard

Malmesbury said:

Age related data scaled to 100K

Significant booster effect on the oldies there.

Anabobazina

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Just been out and about. In a provincial shopping centre (don't ask). No mask wearing (10%) in and out of shops. Can't see how people will be motivated/threatened to start wearing them again.

This is an occasion where anecdata seems to match an individual's views. In the shops I go in, mask usage seems to be well over 50% - much more in the local supermarket.

Hardly anyone wears them in the shops around me in London, but when I visited a countryside friend the Waitrose was almost fully masked! I think it varies a hell of a lot from place to place.

pigeon

Monkeys said:

JBriskin3 said:

So five more years of Bozo!

Suck it up lefties.

He might get bored and wander off, midway through PMQ's. I expect he might in the next parliament.

Either bored or skint, whatever comes first.

HYUFD

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

JBriskin3 said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.

Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again

If that had happened, who would the tories have chosen in 1992 as leader and how would they have fared in the 1997/8 election?

Would Kinnock have chosen brown as chancellor after John Smith’s death? Would he have snaffled Blair’s career before it has barely begun?

What price would Pants Down have extracted for support in the coalition? Might he have had a path to PM in an election or two?

In 1992. probably Heseltine given Tory MPs still had the final say and he was already by far the most charismatic figure in the Cabinet the Tories had at that time. Probably Howard, Lilley or Lamont would have stood as the candidate of the Right but Major's defeat would also have been their defeat (remember in 1990 Major was the Thatcherite candidate v Heseltine once Thatcher bowed out).

It is therefore possible Leader of the Opposition Heseltine would have beaten PM Kinnock in 1997 and then Brown would have taken over as Leader of the Opposition after that.

We may never have seen Blair become Labour leader let alone PM. If Pantsdown had demanded PR as the price of his support, the Heseltine wing would likely have kept control of the party and may even have done a future deal with the LDs like Cameron did in 2010. The Eurosceptic wing of the party may have formed their own breakaway Thatcherite party by 1997 if there was PR, perhaps led by Redwood or Portillo.

It is an interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had Major lost in 1992 and Kinnock won enough seats to become PM

kinabalu

On topic. Again very interesting. And as it happens my opposite flavour 'intuition 1st analysis 2nd' method for the next GE also rates a Con majority as about a 50% chance. So coming at it either way this is where you arrive.

Conclusion: The Cons have a 50/50 chance of a majority and that's a stone cold FACT.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

moonshine said:

HYUFD said:

JBriskin3 said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Managing expectations - canny

Indeed, after all in the one exception, 1992, John Major won a narrow majority when most polls and commentators expected a Kinnock led minority government propped up by Ashdown's LDs.

Better to say the odds favour a Starmer minority government than be too complacent and say the Tories will win another majority again

If that had happened, who would the tories have chosen in 1992 as leader and how would they have fared in the 1997/8 election?

Would Kinnock have chosen brown as chancellor after John Smith’s death? Would he have snaffled Blair’s career before it has barely begun?

What price would Pants Down have extracted for support in the coalition? Might he have had a path to PM in an election or two?

In 1992. probably Heseltine given Tory MPs still had the final say and he was already Deputy PM and by far the most charismatic figure in the Cabinet the Tories had at that time.

It is therefore possible Leader of the Opposition Heseltine would have beaten PM Kinnock in 1997 and then Brown would have taken over as Leader of the Opposition after that.

We may never have seen Blair become Labour leader let alone PM. If Pantsdown had demanded PR as the price of his support, the Heseltine wing would likely have kept control of the party and may even have done a future deal with the LDs like Cameron did in 2010. The Eurosceptic wing of the party may have formed their own breakaway Thatcherite party by 1997 if there was PR, perhaps led by Redwood or Portillo.

It is an interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had Major lost in 1992 and Kinnock won enough seats to become PM

Everything would have been arrr'right.

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?

Leon

Anabobazina said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Just been out and about. In a provincial shopping centre (don't ask). No mask wearing (10%) in and out of shops. Can't see how people will be motivated/threatened to start wearing them again.

This is an occasion where anecdata seems to match an individual's views. In the shops I go in, mask usage seems to be well over 50% - much more in the local supermarket.

Hardly anyone wears them in the shops around me in London, but when I visited a countryside friend the Waitrose was almost fully masked! I think it varies a hell of a lot from place to place.

Yes. In Camden mask wearing has shot back up in the last fortnight or so. In supermarkets it is around 80%? Whereas in early November it was about 30%. At a very rough guess

No idea why, possibly just random fluctuation, or the approach of winter making people more cautious, perhaps

Fishing

Foxy said:

Some interesting work by @Fishing but don't the stats require event outcomes to be independent? And is that true of General Elections?

There are some exceptions (2010, 1997, 1966, 1945) but mostly elections are pretty correlated with the previous one.

Here I demonstrated the exact opposite!

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/18/how-steep-is-starmers-mountain/

JBriskin3

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?

Managing expectations - canny

Leon

Will Americans obey, all over again?

Reuters Politics
@ReutersPolitics
U.S. should be prepared to do "anything," including lockdowns, to fight Omicron - Fauci http://reut.rs/3pdODGy

JBriskin3

kinabalu said:

On topic. Again very interesting. And as it happens my opposite flavour 'intuition 1st analysis 2nd' method for the next GE also rates a Con majority as about a 50% chance. So coming at it either way this is where you arrive.

Conclusion: The Cons have a 50/50 chance of a majority and that's a stone cold FACT.

Fill Yer Boots

Con Majority 2.6

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?

There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re elected

HYUFD

Leon said:

Will Americans obey, all over again?

Reuters Politics
@ReutersPolitics
U.S. should be prepared to do "anything," including lockdowns, to fight Omicron - Fauci http://reut.rs/3pdODGy

Certainly not in the Trumpite South and especially where they have GOP Governors and state legislatures.

They have enough trouble there getting everyone to get vaccinated, they would openly rebel rather than impose further lockdowns

FrancisUrquhart

Anabobazina said:

maaarsh said:

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

It’s a fair point. I mean, I’m not personally that bothered about mask mandates in shops, as I don’t shop for pleasure. I only go into shops to buy food and - once a year - gifts. But, I’m conscious that shopping is for many millions of people a leisure activity. As you say, those sorts of relatively minor restrictions can hang around for ever.

Couldn’t we just have made mask wearing in shops advisory, and offered FF3s to the vulnerable? I still see lots of old ladies with flimsy fabric masks - which only have a moderate effect.

The government advice on this is very poor. We all understand the initial advice over masks, because there was worry people would hoard them and medical staff wouldn't be able to get them, but now, if you are vulnerable and concerned, a poorly fitting fabric mask ain't doing shit about Delta, let alone teenage mutant ninja variant.

FFP3 masks aren't very costly and widely available.

kinabalu

isam said:

Tend to agree with the thread header

The onslaught of anti govt tweets in the comments and Opinium based thread headers would make an impartial observer think this was done and dusted, and the Tories goners - you only have to have been a PBer from 2010-15, or look at the 83, 87, 92, 15 GE polling to see how these narratives are usually just noise

You're on at evens, aren't you?

"To top up or not to top up", this is the question you are no doubt asking yourself - and indeed might have answered for all I know.

stodge

Afternoon all

Have to say the Pfizer booster I had yesterday has caused me a few minor problems today. Very tired and aching limbs early but alleviated somewhat by paracetamol and gradually easing. I doubt I can use it as an excuse to skip work tomorrow.

I had no reaction to the two AZ vaccinations - Mrs Stodge had a bad arm after the first AZ but so far she's had no problem with the Pfizer booster.

Just like trying to predict the result of the next election....

Anabobazina

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

maaarsh said:

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

It’s a fair point. I mean, I’m not personally that bothered about mask mandates in shops, as I don’t shop for pleasure. I only go into shops to buy food and - once a year - gifts. But, I’m conscious that shopping is for many millions of people a leisure activity. As you say, those sorts of relatively minor restrictions can hang around for ever.

Couldn’t we just have made mask wearing in shops advisory, and offered FF3s to the vulnerable? I still see lots of old ladies with flimsy fabric masks - which only have a moderate effect.

The government advice on this is very poor. We all understand the initial advice over masks, because there was worry people would hoard them and medical staff wouldn't be able to get them, but now, if you are vulnerable and concerned, a poorly fitting fabric mask ain't doing shit about Delta, let alone teenage mutant ninja variant.

FFP3 masks aren't very costly and widely available.

Welcome back Francis, good to see you back on the site sir.

Yes, I was having this conversation with a mate… he had no idea that these things were available for a tenner. As you say, if you are vulnerable or worried about covid, this is the one to get!

FrancisUrquhart

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Andy_JS said:

"Fears Twickenham rugby match may have been omicron superspreader event

Covid cases in south-west London have risen sharply and concerns are growing over passengers from Gauteng who left airport without testing"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/fears-twickenham-rugby-match-may-have-omicron-superspreader/

That’s such shitty journalism. Consider when the match was, and then consider the range of dates plotted on the chart. Unless a mutation includes time travel, I think we can rule it out.

Somethings during this pandemic never change....

Hmm. If you look at HMG's excellent interactive map of UK cases, there ARE darker patches indicating higher cases in southwest London. Richmond and the like. Twickers!

Also mid Sussex. Why there? Gatwick workers?

Is this early evidence of Omicron? I do not know. Probably Malmesbury would be able to tell us. But worth a look

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

But just like the supposed super spreading event at the horse racing based, most people going to those big sporting events don't actually live there. So analysis of the very small region around a venue a couple of days after doesn't tell you that at all.

Cheltenham was surely a super-spreading event. Not because of the actual races, they were outdoors, but because of all the crowding-into-bars and restaurants and trains, and so on, in and around the venue

Ditto the euros this year. All that gathering in bars and homes. I don't think anyone seriously disputes this?

What we don't know is whether the Saffers at Twickers had Omicron, in any great amount. Were there even that many there?

If I remember correctly though when you actually looked at the spike in cases, it wasn't in the area directly around the race course, because punters and staff travel to the location. In fact wasn't there a fake map that somebody "leaked" and the media ran with that had to be corrected.

No one disputes that the euros caused a surge in cases. The pattern was repeated in various places across Europe. Because of all the people crowding into bars and living rooms (where it was allowed)

"Covid: surge in Scottish cases raises Euro 2020 safety concerns
Public Health Scotland data shows 1,991 people who later tested positive had attended one or more Euro 2020 events"


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/30/surge-in-scottish-covid-cases-raises-euro-2020-safety-concerns

"Surge in Covid cases among English men in their 20s - coinciding with Euro 2020"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-covid-cases-among-english-24546468

Why should Cheltenham be uniquely different, do they not drink at the Cheltenham Festival? I am sure I can recall Topping post from there, completely pissed to the gills, so I suspect it is not a teetotal event

These things cause surges, they just do

That wasn't my point....my point was you can't say that from looking at a small region surrounding a venue a few days after. And we didn't see that at Cheltenham, there was a fake map that alleged to show it, but it was debunked.

Just to be clear, I am not saying big events don't act as spreading event, more it is about how it shows up.

another_richard

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

Just been out and about. In a provincial shopping centre (don't ask). No mask wearing (10%) in and out of shops. Can't see how people will be motivated/threatened to start wearing them again.

This is an occasion where anecdata seems to match an individual's views. In the shops I go in, mask usage seems to be well over 50% - much more in the local supermarket.

Hardly anyone wears them in the shops around me in London, but when I visited a countryside friend the Waitrose was almost fully masked! I think it varies a hell of a lot from place to place.

Yes. In Camden mask wearing has shot back up in the last fortnight or so. In supermarkets it is around 80%? Whereas in early November it was about 30%. At a very rough guess

No idea why, possibly just random fluctuation, or the approach of winter making people more cautious, perhaps

Mask usage fell below 10% in Yorkshire months ago.

Yet they're the parts of England with the lowest current levels of infection.

In particular the inner urban parts of Bolton and Bradford have very current low infection rates.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

I suspect that levels of acquired immunity are far more relevant to current infection levels than levels of mask wearing.

FrancisUrquhart

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

maaarsh said:

pigeon said:

maaarsh said:

2nd day in a row of cases falling.

Give it a week and the usual suspects will be saying cases are falling due to the mask requirement that hasn't started yet, demanding the rules are extended.

And I don't have much faith that con won't work.

What happens in the coming months depends to a great extent, of course, on how overloaded the hospitals become. So long as they're not in a complete state of collapse then there is a decent chance that the Government will resist any really harsh measures.

It's not that I trust Johnson not to pull any lockdown levers if the scientists with dodgy computer models scream loud enough - the man is directionless and spineless along with it - but Sunak won't acquiesce to yet more business support and furlough spending unless matters are desperate.

I'm pretty hopeful there won't be any more real basis for restrictions. It's just the continued use of the precautionary principle (where certain costs are justified by doubtful potential benefits) that worries me we'll drift back to needless low level measures without quite getting round to getting ride of them.

It’s a fair point. I mean, I’m not personally that bothered about mask mandates in shops, as I don’t shop for pleasure. I only go into shops to buy food and - once a year - gifts. But, I’m conscious that shopping is for many millions of people a leisure activity. As you say, those sorts of relatively minor restrictions can hang around for ever.

Couldn’t we just have made mask wearing in shops advisory, and offered FF3s to the vulnerable? I still see lots of old ladies with flimsy fabric masks - which only have a moderate effect.

The government advice on this is very poor. We all understand the initial advice over masks, because there was worry people would hoard them and medical staff wouldn't be able to get them, but now, if you are vulnerable and concerned, a poorly fitting fabric mask ain't doing shit about Delta, let alone teenage mutant ninja variant.

FFP3 masks aren't very costly and widely available.

Welcome back Francis, good to see you back on the site sir.

Yes, I was having this conversation with a mate… he had no idea that these things were available for a tenner. As you say, if you are vulnerable or worried about covid, this is the one to get!

My visit is only fleeting...back to the office and the grindstone tomorrow.

Fishing

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes,

26 is not particularly tiny for a time series regression like this!

FrancisUrquhart

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

Fishing

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?

There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re elected

That is something I plan to analyse in a future thread as it is a statistical question.

eristdoof

The main article implicitly implies the resuts of each election is independent from the last one and does not take into account the very strong autocorrelation in the Conservative party's results over the years. Someone looking forward from July 1983 would estimate the probability of a conservative majority in the next election would be much greater than someone looking forward from July 1997.
We are in a similar position to the 1987-1992 election cyle.

Leon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

It is incredible how this pseudo-News has gone viral. Everyone is so desperate to believe this one single optimistic SA GP.

Even now people are tweeting it out, urgently and ardently

Andy_JS

Latest video from Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdkCVeWc1pQ

FrancisUrquhart

Andy_JS said:

Latest video from Dr John Campbell.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdkCVeWc1pQ

In my absence, he has gone a bit weird....he is always seems to banging on about ivermectin.

JBriskin3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

How many many heads in a row out of interest?

I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.

kinabalu

JBriskin3 said:

kinabalu said:

On topic. Again very interesting. And as it happens my opposite flavour 'intuition 1st analysis 2nd' method for the next GE also rates a Con majority as about a 50% chance. So coming at it either way this is where you arrive.

Conclusion: The Cons have a 50/50 chance of a majority and that's a stone cold FACT.

Fill Yer Boots

Con Majority 2.6

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249195

It's value, I think. But my preferred play is Con most seats.

FrancisUrquhart

JBriskin3 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

How many many heads in a row out of interest?

I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.

Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising

https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf

Here is a more accessible take,

https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html

TheValiant

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

37681 cases. You know what that means...

https://www.class37.co.uk/imagepage.aspx?strnumber=jp37681

Pwwoooahh! Pure Porn!

Even filthier:

NSFW (obviously): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merseyrail#Current_fleet

JBriskin3

FrancisUrquhart said:

JBriskin3 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

How many many heads in a row out of interest?

I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.

Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising

https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf

Would 93 cause suspision ?

JBriskin3

FrancisUrquhart said:

JBriskin3 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

How many many heads in a row out of interest?

I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.

Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising

https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf

Here is a more accessible take,

https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html

Hmmmmm-

"What about a run of 10 heads? We begin again with the minimum number of coin flips. In this case it's ten. The probability of getting 10 heads in a row = 0.510 = 0.0009765625. And so the probability of not getting 10 heads in a row is its complement or 1 - 0.0009765625 = 0.9990234375."

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

I have this discussion earlier with HYUFD on the question of politics and small sample size of elections.

Even with a fair coin getting four or more of the same outcome out of five coin tosses would happen 12/32 of the time.

There's a reason why you need a minimum sample size before you can start doing a proper statistical analysis.

another_richard

FrancisUrquhart said:

JBriskin3 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Why GP from South Arica / media amplifying her statement are talking nonsense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDkC21Dm0Hk

I like the analogy of tossing coins, where we as humans are terrible as analyzing if it is a rigged coin or if it is natural sequence of randomness, hint it is totally normal to get many many heads in the row without a rigged coin.

How many many heads in a row out of interest?

I've always wanted to know the answer this stat.

Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising

https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/stoppard_final.pdf

Here is a more accessible take,

https://apollo.neocities.org/math/runofheads.html

A 92-0 pattern is just as likely as any other 92 stage pattern.

But a 92-0 result is a lot less likely than a 46-46 or 47-45 or 45-47 etc.

moonshine

I am fairly sure I must have Rona. I can barely taste the Zimbabwean hot sauce recommended some time back by Leon.

Also what are people’s views on seeing a rat in the garden? Something to nip in the bud or live and let live?

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

Yes but again we are ignoring the fact that the next general election will be after 10 years of a Conservative government in power.

Of those such elections since universal suffrage in 1918 ie 1945, 1964 and 1992 and 1997 the Conservatives got 30% of the seats, 48% of the seats, 51% of the seats and 25% of the seats respectively.

In all cases bar 1992 below the 49.5% average number of seats the Conservatives have won at general elections over the last century.

Mmm, true, but the sample is even tinier than Fishing's century of outcomes, and the Consercvatives are notably good at changing leader and pretending it's an exciting new government. These are fun exercises, but they impose a statistical model on a score of very different events. I'm not convinced that looking at the very different Conservative Party against the very different Labour Party in the wildly different circumstances of, say, 1935, tells us anything at all. Virtually all the voters from then are now no longer with us, and issues that excited them like German rearmament are entirely irrelevant now. Do we expect whatever happens in 2023 to be a useful guide to what will happen in 2122?

There are differences of course but it always holds true I think that the longer a party has been in power, the more difficult it is for it to get re elected

Shouldn't be difficult if you actually do what you promise