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Latest voting split GE2021 CON voters – politicalbetting.com
Latest voting split GE2021 CON voters – politicalbetting.com
The chart is based on the latest poll from Opinium and shows the current voting intentions of GE2019 CON voters.
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Yesterday morning the Riksdag voted in the country’s first woman prime minister, Magdalena Andersson - Social Democrat - with the backing of coalition partner the Greens, plus the Centre and Left parties.
In the afternoon that very same Riksdag voted through the Opposition centre-right Budget.
So the Greens immediately resigned from the governing coalition.
If there is an extraordinary GE now then at least one parliamentary party - the Liberals - is going to fall below the 4% threshold. Perhaps up to 3 of the 8 parliamentary parties. The Greens are very wobbly now without Social Democrats tactical votes.
Admittedly the Tories should never have adopted it and it’s their own fault they did, but even so…
And Good Morning one and all. Non-political, social, day ahead for me!
The energy cap was a stupid idea when Miliband proposed it (as I said at the time), and was stupid when it got introduced. As many people predicted.
We have been here before in history. When the Black Death killed off half the peasantry, the other half suddenly found that they were in a workers' market. Lords who were willing to pay premium wages to get their land worked continued to get it worked. Those who weren't found all their peasants ran away to work for lords with a better grasp of the new economic realities, and their estates went fallow. The feudal system collapsed. Nobody apart from scalper lords thought the collapse of feudalism to be a bad thing.
What will now happen is that businesses that are desperate for staff will have to work out ways to manage with fewer staff; or they'll have to pay their staff more, and find efficiencies elsewhere so that the bill doesn't get passed on to the customer; or they'll need to pay their staff more, pass the cost onto the customer, and provide a good enough service that the customer is willing to pay a premium; or they'll have to close.
If you want people to be paid decent wages then a period of wage inflation can only be a good thing. The fact that there is a certain strand of supposedly left-leaning opinion (particularly amongst wealthy metropolitans) that is utterly desperate to reopen the borders to limitless migratory flows therefore exposes the hollowness of their ideological posturing. They don't care about low paid workers at all - they just want to indulge in internationalist virtue signalling, and to keep their cheap lattes, cheap cleaners, cheap nannies and cheap plumbers.
We all like cheap, but if it is to continue in future it must be achieved through lean working practices and automation, not through paying people naff all and flogging them to death. If that means that some concerns that previously relied on chefs working 12-hour shifts for the minimum wage find that said chefs are leaving, and nobody else is willing to labour under such rotten conditions, then hurrah.
Otherwise nah
Also becoming clear that there is not going to be a replacement before a GE.
It's him or Johnson the buffoon at the next election, at least for those in marginal seats. Mine is a safe seat, so I am free to waste my vote as I see fit.
What the government needs is a bit of quiet where we see our relative performance on Covid once again rise back to the top of the class, where the good economic news continues to filter through and where there are fewer self inflicted wounds like Owen Paterson and Peppa Pig. The last of these is by far the hardest with a media that smells blood in the water.
SKS thinks the real enemies are in Labour hence he is expelling them at record rates particularly if they are Jewish
Powerless really it's a view.
He is the one doing the expelling of jews
5 times more likely to be expelled from Labour if you are Jewish.
That's why I'm wondering what you're on.
That this was disguised for many years, by a high turnover of foreigners willing to sleep in bunk beds for a couple of years, doesn’t mean it’s not a huge problem. The only way it gets fixed is if wages rise to meet demand, and restaurants invest in training.
Here is one example of a fancy, high-profile restaurant offering £12 an hour for a trained and qualified chef.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10155957/Salt-Baes-London-restaurant-hiring-chefs-hourly-wage-price-mashed-potato-menu.html
Re there's "one in every CLP"
Membership in Chesterfield down from 832 to 671 since SKS came to power.
161 reduction in that CLP is a small number (19%) vast majority of those will not vote Labour under SKS though.
If it takes one man hour to clean your car, and you’re paying a tenner to someone who has to rent space and employ staff, there is precisely zero chance they’re paying minimum wage to those staff.
Takes him a day and a half to clean a car properly, and costs about a grand.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=CK_heJ7oKl8
Right wingers don't do hard work like canvassing in my experience.Not even at the 2021 LEs
Anyway, more importantly I am worried about you. I advise getting off those fringe LP social forums and news feeds. It’s good for the soul. They’re pretty toxic and a complete waste of time. Let others do the outrage thing.
PB is far better and it’s worth talking more to real LP people in the flesh.
The idea that SKS is "expelling Jews" is weaponised levels of wrong. A small number of members expelled for their association with proscribed bodies happen to be Jewish. They're expelled for supporting things like Labour against the Witchhunt, not because they are Jewish. To purport that to be the case is pretty twisted.
Whereas in Corbyn's day the doors were opened wide to the cranks and hardcore anti-semites. Then Labour members who were Jewish left in their droves having been targeted by the party for being Jewish.
Anti-semitism seems to be the racism that doesn't get counted as racism. As David Baddiel's awful/brilliant book puts it, "Jews Don't Count". The quicker the anti-semites and their supporters are removed from Labour the better.
I do talk to many people in the flesh most don't disagree with my views on Starmer. Perhaps they are being polite.
There's a reason for that: in high value add countries, the native population is well skilled. Singaporean kids are well educated - they don't want to work as cleaners, nannys or bottom wipers.
It's not that natives are priced out of the care home market, it's that natives have got better jobs than working in care homes.
It would be great if there were no low skill jobs in the future, and everything was automated away. But the reality is that there are lots of jobs where automation is tough. Old people who are losing their marbles don't want to be looked after by robots. People make better cappuccinos than machines. And yes, your car will look better (and have the inside vacuumed and the trash thrown away) if it is cleaned by people rather than a machine.
And that's why Switzerland and Singapore import lots of low skilled labour. It's because there's lots of demand for it, and the natives are off doing the well paid jobs.
It is curious that the UK has had such a very different experience to these other rich countries.
And I think the thing is that you need to look at ultimate causes, and not proximate ones. British wages of low skilled workers have been affected by immigrants, because the British workers were no better educated (or skilled) than the immigrants. That's a problem that hasn't affected most other very rich countries. It's a problem that hasn't affected - for example - Germany or Switzerland with their extremely strong vocational training programmes.
We also need to look at the British system of tax and benefits: because (as @Philip_Thompson has noted), the UK system seems designed to discourage people at the lower end of the scale from working. Marginal tax rates in the 60 to 70% range (when you include the removal of benefits) for those at the bottom of the pyramid are a massive disincentive to work.
To solve the issue of an economy addicted to immigration, you need to understand why it's addicted to immigration, not simply to assume that if you ban it, all will be well. And I find it profoundly depressing that the current government - or most of the ones in the recent past - has done nothing to really understand why so many young people leave school in the UK without the right skills. (Instead, we obsess over whether we should reintroduce grammar schools when the UK produces lots of talented people at the top end already.) And we need to overhaul the tax and benefits system to encourage people to work. Those on or around minimum wage should have marginal tax rates as close to zero as possible.
Anyway: this may be all too nuanced for PB at 7:51am in the morning. So I'm going to grab a quick shower and head out for the day.
In "Track 1" - schemes to progress this decade - the funding went to a pair of projects in England, with Banff and Buchan's St Fergus scheme relegated to potential future consideration for "Track 2" in the 2030s.
David Duguid - the only Scottish Tory to vote to scrap the same Standards Commissioner who had already censured him - not only thinks this is a Good Thing but even stood and praised Peppa at PMQs, thanking him for not awarding part of the £1bn government funding to the constituency.
Apparently my consideration that he shouldn't praise the government for "binning off" the project is "SNP doom-mongering". The project apparently has a "great future". At some unspecified point in the next decade assuming it ever gets funded.
Is it a special kind of mindset where you bid for something, lose that bid, then seek to praise the person saying no for their brilliant decision-making whilst telling people that the bid is going brilliantly? Even better he will then get to ask us all for our vote to give thanks for the non-funding of this scheme he so successfully secured.
To which people duly do.
I think the events of 2019 show a disastrous 2nd referendum policy and an unpopular leader will result in a Tory landslide.
I think the events of 2024 will show that being Tory lite and having a useless leader will result in 2019 rather than 2017 type result
See also Brexit where the imaginary (everyone's personal flavour) won over Remain.
And it's worth saying that in all 3 post 2015 votes, the optimistic / change vote won over more of the same.
2016 Leave was change, Remain more of the same
2017 May was more of the same (+ bad idea), Corbyn was change,
2019 Corbyn was more of the same, Boris was change.
Leaving the rights or wrongs of Starmer aside those social media forums do seem to be pretty toxic and drive people to a pretty dark place. It feels pretty nasty and manipulative. I switched the whole lot off over the summer and feel a million times better, I recommend anyone to do the same.
The problem with the 2017 arguments is that however much of an increase Labour secured, they lost. However much that increase was, the threat of Corbyn drove a 20% surge in the Tory vote. Wasn't very efficient in England hence the temporary loss of seats, but the maths is clear.
There is another basic reality here. Your fight for your version of socialism in the Labour Party is lost. There isn't going to be a "one more heave" type moment where you finally dispatch Keir and replace him and all those throughout the party like him with true socialists.
I know that in your case that has delivered you into a position of punishment voting, saying you will vote Tory - the very thing you despise - to somehow punish the Labour party for disagreeing with you. In reality the people who disagree are the voters.
Whats worse is that none of you in your part of the left spectrum can agree on what true socialism is, hence the myriad of splinter groups and parties. Would be best if you all coalesced into a single group with a single identity and went out there offering your version of socialism to the electorate.
Like the leader of the Government calling a premature election but then not bothering to do the debates.
After 2019 it'd take a small swing for the seat to end up Tory.
Corbyn nearly lost Tony Benn's old constituency to the Tories.
Correct
Let people do it individually. If employers are providing a bad wage then workers can withdraw their labour individually by going to a new employer.
The problem with striking etc is its trying to compel a better wage even from those who are paying good wages already and then putting picket lines up trying to stop others from taking the jobs.
I think someone mentioned the French system of child-linked personal tax allowances, though I don't see any government being brave enough to try that out.
More 2019 Labour voters have also gone Green than Conservative.
There is still little movement between Conservative and Labour, even if slightly more 2019 Conservative voters have gone Labour than the reverse
As you know most people vote on National politics Blair was so unpopular in Chesterfield Labour lost in 2001 and 2005.
You should stick to Constituencies you know about mate..
Those voters were not socialist, they lent their votes to Corbyn in 2017 to try and stop a hard Brexit, he failed to do so, so they went LD in 2019. Most of them are now back voting Labour under Starmer even if those 2017 Labour voters who voted for Boris or Farage in 2019 to get Brexit done are still not voting Labour
262: Most number of MPs won by Jeremy Corbyn at a general election
Your vote is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
Rishi Sunak losing patience with ‘maelstrom of chaos’ at No 10
Rishi Sunak is increasingly frustrated with Boris Johnson’s “chaotic” No 10 operation, his allies said last night.
The chancellor believes that there needs to be greater professionalism after a succession of damaging Tory rebellions and government reversals.
The fallout landed on the Treasury this week as Liam Booth-Smith, Sunak’s chief of staff, was accused of briefing that there was “a lot of concern in the building about the PM”.
The claim has been denied by the Treasury but allies believe that Sunak will need to protect Booth-Smith because senior figures in Downing Street are “gunning for him”. They highlighted the fact that Sajid Javid quit as chancellor after No 10 attempted to remove his advisers.
One ally of Sunak said: “Rishi is not confrontational but he takes things seriously. He goes through them logically and thinks things through. He’s frustrated with the operation in No 10. Things are chaotic in No 10.”
Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, and Dan Rosenfield, the No 10 chief of staff, came in for criticism. “Case and Rosenfield act like starry-eyed junior researchers who are trying to make him [Johnson] feel good. But it’s very difficult to challenge him when someone’s political star is based on being bumbling and chaotic,” the ally said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-losing-patience-with-maelstrom-of-chaos-at-no-10-qlwnschx9
Rishi Sunak is the new pound shop Gordon Brown.
Blair lost it twice out of 3
What I do recognise is that Starmer is the only real alternative to the current clowning sleazebags. He may not be the best, but he is the best that there is.
And I have to concede that he is getting better. As the election gets closer (probably just 2 years away) the differences will become more stark, and the policy differences more clear.
In order to get majority support in Parliament a leader needs to draw on wider support than a narrow faction. That was why Corbyn lost two elections.
The poll also gives the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Swedish Democrats combined more than the Social Democrats, Greens and Left Party and Centre Party certainly if the Greens fall below the threshold like the Liberals however given as in Germany the centre right will not work with the populist right although the right combined will have more seats the centre left will likely stay in power but without the votes to get its budget through. Hence you had what occurred last night and a Social Democrat PM elected in office but not in power who swiftly has to resign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Swedish_general_election
Benefit scrounger and father of three tells the Africans to stop having so many kids.
https://inews.co.uk/news/prince-william-human-population-growth-africa-harming-wildlife-1315378
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/priti-patel-anti-protest-powers-stuffed-policing-bill-1316830?ito=twitter_share_article-top
Chesterfield doesn't do Tory Lite but will go Tory IMO
We need to invade France...
Minister Kevin Foster says Britain is “keen” to put boots on the ground in France to patrol the borders.
But he says the U.K. cannot “force” Macron to let us #today
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1463785287755218947
Labour invest in HS2E / NPR and other projects to ensure we hit carbon neutral (to hit that the Government needs to be investing £12bn a year in transport infrastructure projects). Also the dementia tax.
Lib Dems - target the seats where they are closer than Labour with Nimby policies as required (it's the south, that's what they want alongside no money being spent).