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Crouching tiger, hidden dragon – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,678

    I'd have agreed with this up until the last week or so. Not so sure now. Really depends on the polling - if it becomes clear over a sustained period that the Tory poll lead has gone, I think they'll want to get Sunak in place in good time for the next election.
    I think the party would need to see Labour well ahead for a few months and Sunak polling way better than Johnson as regards impact on VI before they'd psyche up to possibly ditch him. Could happen but for me it's a long shot. Maybe around a 10% chance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    Aslan said:

    I find it hilarious that people use things like museums, theater, universities and music as a reason to live in London. How many hours do you spend each year doing them? The top 5% probably do 2 hours a week. The average Londoner probably 2 hours a month.

    Meanwhile how much do you have to deal with the shitty things about London? If you mainly drive, traffic congestion alone probably costs you 0.5-1 hours a day. Finding parking a similar amount. Being cramped like cattle into tubes would be even more. Living in cramped apartments and housing is something you have to deal with 50 hours plus each week. Crazy expensive gyms, terrible childcare, awful GP waiting lines... the list goes on.

    As I said above, you live there and tell people about things that, in reality, you enjoy just once or twice a year.

    I return to the city nowadays on average once a month, and make more out of central London as a visitor than ever I did as a resident of one of its outer suburbs.

    Which leaves the appeal of the suburbs being all the places you can drive to that aren’t actually London - in the same way that, talk to anyone who lives in Swindon, and they’ll be telling you of all the wonderful places that are within an hour or so’s drive whose principal virtue is that they aren’t Swindon.
  • IanB2 said:

    I lived and worked in London for thirty years and represented a part of it on my local council for twenty four of them, elected six times running, during which I got to see aspects that most people don’t see, and was involved in London-wide politics for a fair few years, as well as having a career involved with providing services to the capital.

    It was a privilege to represent a part of the capital and I did my best to make my local patch a better place to live. Yet it is the housing market that has ruined the city, for its residents. In the ‘90s, owner occupation was on the rise and the part of east london that I represented, a mix of terraced and semi-detached houses, was a settled community with a lot of young families. When I cashed in and moved away, owner occupation was plummeting (in just my own ward alone, a property moved from owner-occupied to private-rented every three days) and the sense of community had gone. So many properties had been converted to flats or bedsits, retained by their ‘boomer’ owners who had “moved to the country” and now occupied by younger people renting single rooms at extortionate rates, with a fast turnover of residents.

    The telling point about outer London for me was always when I returned from a holiday in some more attractive part of the world and returned home, seeing it through the eyes of a visitor. Which never felt good. London residents so easily turn a blind eye to the city’s unattractiveness, away from the centre.

    Central London is full of amazing attractions, but these can best be enjoyed as a visitor staying in a nice hotel and scheduling a few days to tour the museums and sights, as I am able to to nowadays. Living in outer London it was all too easy to extol the virtues of living in London without realising that, in reality, central London is mostly enjoyed by a few ultra-rich residents and by tourists. The number of times I actually went to the theatre or suchlike after work, or travelled into the centre at the weekend after a week of unpleasant daily commuting, don’t need to be counted because there were so few of them. Which leaves outer London residents consoling themselves with the places they can reach after a short drive that aren’t in London at all.

    Whilst I enjoyed my younger days in London, its pleasures are out of reach nowadays to all except the very rich, and even if I won the lottery I wouldn’t move back there. Indeed I drive through parts of the city that I used to call home, and, through the eyes of an outsider, wonder how it was that I ever managed put up with the squalor of the place.
    Great post. I worked in Kings Cross for 3 years and after a brief period in a delightful bedsit at the top of Grays Inn Road lived in Edmonton. I had to really plan to do things in London because otherwise it didn't happen. Sprawling suburban life was all the financial penalties of working in that London with few on the benefits of working in that London.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    eek said:

    Had is the operative word regarding the transporter bridge - the estimated repair costs are "Oh Boy" see https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/bringing-outdated-transporter-bridge-full-21941044
    That's a shame - but understandable. Is having an operable transporter bridge necessary when there are so many more demands on the council's purse? However, as the article says, it is iconic. I really hope it remains, even if inoperable.

    ISTR there's also another interesting lift bridge further upstream.

    (And apologies for mistyping Middlesbrough in my last post.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,678

    1) Is very much about local perceptions - in mining areas, as an example, the Conservative party was widely viewed as 'the enemy'. I think that has now gone. The Conservatives might still be viewed as incompetent, self-serving and out-of-touch but that's different from being actively malign. The opposite side of the coin might be university constituencies with the perception of the Conservatives now being that of 'the enemy' far more than it was in previous decades.

    4) I remember around 2010 posting here the demographics of some Lincolnshire constituency (South Holland perhaps) and those of a South Yorkshire constituency (maybe Rother Valley) - they were pretty much identical on age, education, race, home ownership. I suggested the different voting habits for seemingly similar places came from one traditionally digging potatoes out of the ground and the other coal. Well the coal is now gone so what's to stop the voting patterns of the two places becoming much closer.
    Ok, got you. On (1), though, being taken for a ride by a tory toff conman could reignite that 'malign' sentiment. If they see it that way, of course. Which, as per my OP, is what I'm hoping.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279

    That's fine, I never pay any attention to the views of anyone about the town who can't spell it correctly. Fwiw I live in London, absolutely love it, but I also know Middlesbrough well - and I am a lifelong supporter of its football team. The town and its people have many virtues (nowhere but Middlesbrough could have produced a character like Brian Clough in my view) - and the coastline is fantastic.
    Apologies for the misspelling.

    I must admit I've only ever visited once, walking through on my coastwalk in 2002. But that gave me the experience of the 'Black Path' down to Redcar, a long stroll between railway, steelworks and chemical plants. Crossing black chemical-filled puddles using fenceposts someone had thrown in.

    It was spectacular in a horrendously bleak way.
  • Am having difficulty following the metaphor: did the tide come from mainland Europe (going from country to country) before washing up in Rotherham?
    The excessively strained metaphor is (I think) suggesting that turning deaf ears to government covid repression swamping the continent and coming our way soon resembles how 'the uncounted numbers of girls raped and abused in Rotherham and other towns all over England' went ignored. Presumably this means that he's Nick Griffin in this scenario..
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Aslan said:

    I find it hilarious that people use things like museums, theater, universities and music as a reason to live in London. How many hours do you spend each year doing them? The top 5% probably do 2 hours a week. The average Londoner probably 2 hours a month.

    Meanwhile how much do you have to deal with the shitty things about London? If you mainly drive, traffic congestion alone probably costs you 0.5-1 hours a day. Finding parking a similar amount. Being cramped like cattle into tubes would be even more. Living in cramped apartments and housing is something you have to deal with 50 hours plus each week. Crazy expensive gyms, terrible childcare, awful GP waiting lines... the list goes on.

    Might just be me, but pre-Covid I'd spend 2/3 lunchbreaks a week in the Tate Britain. It's pretty much my favourite art gallery in the world.
  • Aslan said:

    I find it hilarious that people use things like museums, theater, universities and music as a reason to live in London. How many hours do you spend each year doing them? The top 5% probably do 2 hours a week. The average Londoner probably 2 hours a month.

    Meanwhile how much do you have to deal with the shitty things about London? If you mainly drive, traffic congestion alone probably costs you 0.5-1 hours a day. Finding parking a similar amount. Being cramped like cattle into tubes would be even more. Living in cramped apartments and housing is something you have to deal with 50 hours plus each week. Crazy expensive gyms, terrible childcare, awful GP waiting lines... the list goes on.

    The British Museum and National Gallery each get about two million UK visitors per year.

    Many of whom will be from outside London meaning that the average Londoner does close to sod all museum visiting.
  • eek said:

    Had is the operative word regarding the transporter bridge - the estimated repair costs are "Oh Boy" see https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/bringing-outdated-transporter-bridge-full-21941044
    That's a shame. I remember being very impressed and intrigued by the Transporter Bridge when I went through Middlesbrough as a kid.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Apologies for the misspelling.

    I must admit I've only ever visited once, walking through on my coastwalk in 2002. But that gave me the experience of the 'Black Path' down to Redcar, a long stroll between railway, steelworks and chemical plants. Crossing black chemical-filled puddles using fenceposts someone had thrown in.

    It was spectacular in a horrendously bleak way.
    I believe the drive along the A178 at night between Middlesbrough and Hartlepool was the inspiration for the opening shots of Bladerunner ...

    As you say a unique spectacle.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    Lovely phrasing here

    "The West is artificially whipping up hysteria with statements about the possible preparation of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Kremlin does not exclude the possibility of provocations in this regard,"- Peskov.

    https://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=560901&lang=RU
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,479
    Bottas again showing why Mercedes are letting him go....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,678
    dixiedean said:

    You seem to have a somewhat rosy view about the plentiful nature of social housing.
    I was reading a feature on it today which argues that the main pull factors for here are language, family ties and the (relative to other countries eg France) ease of getting casual work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    Aslan said:

    I find it hilarious that people use things like museums, theater, universities and music as a reason to live in London. How many hours do you spend each year doing them? The top 5% probably do 2 hours a week. The average Londoner probably 2 hours a month.

    Meanwhile how much do you have to deal with the shitty things about London? If you mainly drive, traffic congestion alone probably costs you 0.5-1 hours a day. Finding parking a similar amount. Being cramped like cattle into tubes would be even more. Living in cramped apartments and housing is something you have to deal with 50 hours plus each week. Crazy expensive gyms, terrible childcare, awful GP waiting lines... the list goes on.

    It always seems strange to me to want to convince others that they live in a shithole whilst waxing lyrical on one's own town or city; it's not as if you want to be invaded by emigre Londoners.

    Each to their own, I say.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,690
    Nigelb said:

    Bottas again showing why Mercedes are letting him go....

    at least 1 season too late though
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,103
    Bottas useless Lewis the GOAT
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,905
    Demerai Gray off Iwobi on.
    Sighs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080
    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    Boris Johnson: Tory MPs are tremendously angry with him. They are not quite so furious that they will pole-axe their number one this week, but they are sufficiently incensed to decline to sustain him and refuse to cover for him. Large numbers of them “withdrew their love” in a dramatically public fashion by disdaining to turn up to support him at the most recent prime minister’s questions.

    “Boris has still got a bit of capital in the bank, but a lot of it has gone,” says a Conservative MP representing a Yorkshire seat. “Boris doesn’t have a conviction in his body,” complains one veteran Thatcherite. “There’s a lot of us worrying: is this a Conservative government?”

    Liberal, internationalist Tories, the type who tried to stop the government’s savage cuts to the aid budget, don’t feel this is their kind of government either. They are angsty that moderate voters are repelled by sleaze, mendacity, incompetence and the crude bombast of the prime minister. “Many of us assumed that Boris was the One Nation Tory who ran London,” says a centrist Conservative MP who backed him for the leadership in 2019. “Unfortunately, we’ve learnt that this was just a persona to win London. We’ve learnt that this was not the genuine Boris.”

    He is a highly unusual prime minister in not having a strong body of committed supporters who will back him through thick and thin. It is a struggle to think of more than a handful of Tory MPs who might fight for him to the bitter end. He hasn’t got loyalists, only lackeys. He inspires no true believers, he simply attracts hangers-on. They will let go of his coat-tails the moment they conclude that his premiership is on an irreversibly downward trajectory.

    Boris Johnson is not yet in the pole-axe zone, but he is stumbling into its vicinity.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    It always seems strange to me to want to convince others that they live in a shithole whilst waxing lyrical on one's own town or city; it's not as if you want to be invaded by emigre Londoners.

    Each to their own, I say.
    There is no specific desire to convince people they live in a shithole. It is just the manifestation of a broader desire to debate an accurate picture of the world. Either someone provides an insight that I have overlooked and I come away wiser, or the poor Londoner can see the light and make choices to improve their life. Win-win I say.

    Having said that, I live an ocean away so am unlikely to be invaded by Londoners. But a few more Brits in the electorate would be a welcome source of moderation.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    eek said:

    Lovely phrasing here

    "The West is artificially whipping up hysteria with statements about the possible preparation of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Kremlin does not exclude the possibility of provocations in this regard,"- Peskov.

    https://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=560901&lang=RU

    Putin is the Kaiser Wilhelm of our time. Autocratic and annexationist. The best way to stop such people is to issue firm lines early and show we mean them. Otherwise their ambitions grow and the desire to avoid conflict results in it, with other countries inevitably pulled in over time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    Boris Johnson: Tory MPs are tremendously angry with him. They are not quite so furious that they will pole-axe their number one this week, but they are sufficiently incensed to decline to sustain him and refuse to cover for him. Large numbers of them “withdrew their love” in a dramatically public fashion by disdaining to turn up to support him at the most recent prime minister’s questions.

    “Boris has still got a bit of capital in the bank, but a lot of it has gone,” says a Conservative MP representing a Yorkshire seat. “Boris doesn’t have a conviction in his body,” complains one veteran Thatcherite. “There’s a lot of us worrying: is this a Conservative government?”

    Liberal, internationalist Tories, the type who tried to stop the government’s savage cuts to the aid budget, don’t feel this is their kind of government either. They are angsty that moderate voters are repelled by sleaze, mendacity, incompetence and the crude bombast of the prime minister. “Many of us assumed that Boris was the One Nation Tory who ran London,” says a centrist Conservative MP who backed him for the leadership in 2019. “Unfortunately, we’ve learnt that this was just a persona to win London. We’ve learnt that this was not the genuine Boris.”

    He is a highly unusual prime minister in not having a strong body of committed supporters who will back him through thick and thin. It is a struggle to think of more than a handful of Tory MPs who might fight for him to the bitter end. He hasn’t got loyalists, only lackeys. He inspires no true believers, he simply attracts hangers-on. They will let go of his coat-tails the moment they conclude that his premiership is on an irreversibly downward trajectory.

    Boris Johnson is not yet in the pole-axe zone, but he is stumbling into its vicinity.

    Was it Max Hastings who said that the people who think Boris is a nice guy are people who do not know him?

    We are getting to know him.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Might just be me, but pre-Covid I'd spend 2/3 lunchbreaks a week in the Tate Britain. It's pretty much my favourite art gallery in the world.
    So 30 minutes a time? 90 minutes a week? I would say you are a top five percenter in visitation, so on par for my estimate.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited November 2021
    Aslan said:

    So 30 minutes a time? 90 minutes a week? I would say you are a top five percenter in visitation, so on par for my estimate.
    Aslan said:

    So 30 minutes a time? 90 minutes a week? I would say you are a top five percenter in visitation, so on par for my estimate.
    Also pre-Covid, but I used to go to the theatre quite often, frequent independent cinemas (Curzon, BFI, Electric Cinema Notting Hill), visit the V&A and Natural History museums, the National Gallery, and National Portrait Gallery regularly. All-in-all I think I probably spent more time on such activities than even that I spent on PB.

    Edit: + classical concerts - at least a couple of proms each year.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley:

    Boris Johnson: Tory MPs are tremendously angry with him. They are not quite so furious that they will pole-axe their number one this week, but they are sufficiently incensed to decline to sustain him and refuse to cover for him. Large numbers of them “withdrew their love” in a dramatically public fashion by disdaining to turn up to support him at the most recent prime minister’s questions.

    “Boris has still got a bit of capital in the bank, but a lot of it has gone,” says a Conservative MP representing a Yorkshire seat. “Boris doesn’t have a conviction in his body,” complains one veteran Thatcherite. “There’s a lot of us worrying: is this a Conservative government?”

    Liberal, internationalist Tories, the type who tried to stop the government’s savage cuts to the aid budget, don’t feel this is their kind of government either. They are angsty that moderate voters are repelled by sleaze, mendacity, incompetence and the crude bombast of the prime minister. “Many of us assumed that Boris was the One Nation Tory who ran London,” says a centrist Conservative MP who backed him for the leadership in 2019. “Unfortunately, we’ve learnt that this was just a persona to win London. We’ve learnt that this was not the genuine Boris.”

    He is a highly unusual prime minister in not having a strong body of committed supporters who will back him through thick and thin. It is a struggle to think of more than a handful of Tory MPs who might fight for him to the bitter end. He hasn’t got loyalists, only lackeys. He inspires no true believers, he simply attracts hangers-on. They will let go of his coat-tails the moment they conclude that his premiership is on an irreversibly downward trajectory.

    Boris Johnson is not yet in the pole-axe zone, but he is stumbling into its vicinity.

    Includes this peach of a quote from a former minister:

    “What’s the mood? I’ll tell you: there’s been a big increase in the number of people who think Boris is a c**t.”

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1461766554228506628
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080

    Also pre-Covid, but I used to go to the theatre quite often, frequent independent cinemas (Curzon, BFI, Electric Cinema Notting Hill), visit the V&A and Natural History museums, the National Gallery, and National Portrait Gallery regularly. All-in-all I think I probably spent more time on such activities than even that I spent on PB.

    Edit: + classical concerts - at least a couple of proms each year.
    London is an amazing city. But it’s one to visit, not one to live.

    Unless you are part of the 2%, obvs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,536
    malcolmg said:

    Brilliant
    I note that that typical North-Easterner Graham Dury, is from Nottingham.
  • NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,479
    Mercedes strategists effed up again.
    Bottas could have come in a couple of laps back.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,536
    eek said:

    London's most immediate problem (and it's one that is going to scare Khan and TFL in the new future) is that there is no way Boris can agree to given TFL the money it needs to survive now.

    So TFL is going to have to start working out how to rapidly cut costs...

    Separately, the whole point of investing up North is that for a one off sum of money (albeit a lot) is that by making the north more efficient there should would be more tax revenue generated up north.
    Perhaps a serendipitous kick up the Rs will encourage Mayor Sadiq to discover some appropropriate moral courage, and first of all follow Paris in dealing with inefficiency in the tube system, and then to address the phalanxes of overpaid managers in TFL.

    They are at last a decade behind Paris.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-20985642
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/17/most-people-who-risk-channel-boat-crossings-are-refugees-report
    Nobody who is a refugee needs to risk criminal activity and danger of crossing the channel in a dinghy. They pass through lots of countries where they are safe.
    So it is not a holiday destination , I cannot pick and choose what country I want to move to just because they have great benefits etc. Therefore their is another reason they want to come to UK and it is not because they are refugees. That leads me to be absolutely certain they are economic migrants looking to exploit the UK system, can be no other reason. Time it was stopped. @OnlyLivingBoy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,026
    rcs1000 said:

    London is all those things. But it is also bustling, with world class museums, restaurants, music, theatre, and universities.

    You pay a high price to be there - in particular in terms of the price of housing. And it suits some people and at some times of life more than others.
    Yes most people swan about museums, fancy restaurants and the theatre all their lives.
This discussion has been closed.