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Crouching tiger, hidden dragon – politicalbetting.com
Crouching tiger, hidden dragon – politicalbetting.com
Working families lose 75% of their assets, millionaires keep 75% plus of their assets. Sir Humphrey would call this a "bold" reform. Guess the question is – will voters understand it? And if they don't: can Labour get them to understand it? https://t.co/TQuNZSIN3d
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The problem with the May plan was it mean only the first £100,000 of your estate was exempt from care costs, beyond that your entire estate could be liable, hence it lost her the support of the average voter and lost her the election.
There are very few Tory seats with an average house price of just £105,000 in the Dilnot chart who would see no benefit from he government's reforms and still see most of their assets consumed in care costs. Indeed the median Redwall house price is £160,000 and the median house price of Conservative seats held in 2019 is an even higher £270,000 and therefore both areas as the Dilnot chart shows will benefit considerably compared to the current system. Both Redwall and Conservative seats would see less than half the average estate lost in care costs under the government's proposed reformed. A significant improvement from now.
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/without-a-cap-on-social-care-cost-former-red-wall-seat-residents
I believe in the idea of disruption bringing great potential opportunities. Hard brexit was always going to be hard (it's in the name), but there were - and still are - great opportunities for the country in it.
The last few months have consolidated my view that whilst many leavers in this government did see Brexit as a disruptor, they did not see it as an opportunity to build a better country. They seem to have been more interested in using the disruption to enrich themselves, rather than the country.
And that's why I can't vote for a Conservative government with Boris, JRM et al in it. They're not bothered about the country: it's about enriching themselves.
From a high base.
Surely it would be better to raise the total amount payable (say to £150k) but then taper the contribution to care costs based on the total value of the estate, so people would only contribute on average 50% towards it, and with the wealthy paying more. Whats the argument against that?
The policy fails even if it was conceived as a bung to the tory client vote.
The only adviser at Number 10 who he trusted (Eddie Lister) was forced out and now he is surrounded by the second rate.
It is hard not to sense that the support of Tory
MPs is ebbing away. Boris is starting to be regarded as a political liability. He needs to remember just how ruthless the Tory Party can be.
This story doesn’t need to have a sad ending. Boris simply needs to put an end to the court of Carrie and her anti Tory agenda, appoint a strong political chief of staff and reset the government’s agenda to one that is Tory. Otherwise the game is up.
Interesting to note that when Boris is floundering, Sunak, Javid and Gove are nowhere to be seen. Reminds me of Berbatov during his second season at Fulham. Boris needs to protect his front let alone his back. How has it come to this?
Amazingly, there are some Tories who believe that Liz Truss is their best hope. Let’s get real. She makes Gavin Williamson look like a statesman. Unbelievable …
So what happens next? I know what I would do. I also know just how hopeless the people are who surround the PM. Desperate times …
Sums it up. From a PR guy on Linkedin.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6867118818771238912/
At the end of the day though the cost has to be paid somehow and in reality that just means even more tax on working people.
The problem is that no-one who’s any good, will be interested in competing for the PM’s attention with the top man’s own wife.
But like all essentially lazy people, he fobs off as much responsibility as possible to other people. Hence the endless catalogue of appalling political judgements. He really doesn’t care. As long as Jack’s alright.
The winter is not going to be full of stories of how the UK is the only country is Western Europe not facing severe restrictions, except for a few minor notes about how the journalists’ skiing holidays are affected.
I agree with @HYUFD
It’s a bit like inheritance tax. It might seem odd that some less rich people don’t like it, but it’s the reality.
And I think HYUFD is probably right regarding the wealth of Tory voters. There’s this idea that the Tories won the last election by securing the votes of the destitute poor in the north. They didn’t.
Personally, I thought May’s proposals were pretty good, but the problem was she sprung them during an election.
This will only be an issue at the next election if Labour go for something radically different.
Grimsby 132k
Scunthorpe 135k
Redcar 151k
Burnley 114k
Blackpool 174k
Source Plumpilot
You might not like it, but after 2017, I think Labour and the Lib Dems deserve it if the Tories turn the tables on them.
“Tories are all liars. You can’t believe anything they say.”
I’m intrigued, Mr Eagles. Who do you know who’s done that?
On topic, yet another stupid policy from Johnson. Prepare for a massive rise in fridgemakers’ stocks as he buys more places to hide…
“We’ll make Brexit work”
Open goals everywhere.
F1: Verstappen, Bottas, and Sainz all set to see the stewards for not slowing under yellows.
Reasonable chance they all get penalties. May happen close to the start time, so bear in mind if you're betting.
The point about social care is 95% of people don't have a clue how it works - so the best thing to do politically is to say nothing and do nothing.
Theresa May raised it in 2017 and it was disastrous for her.
How many times was Social care mentioned in the 2019 GE Campaign? Almost never - and Con won a majority of 80. So the current system was no bar to electoral success.
Just by talking about it you draw attention to it - which can only be a downside politically. And the higher profile you make it the more votes you will lose.
Cummings is a liar and fantasist of limited intellect (albeit unshakeably convinced of his own genius) whose every business venture has failed due to his ineptitude at administration and management and whose every decision has not merely proven to be wrong but was obviously wrong at the time.
‘Another Dominic’ is about the only way things could get worse. Remember, we all noticed a distinct improvement when he was finally fired.
Seb Vettel is quoted as saying they removed the yellow flags for Gasly’s car at the end of the session “Because Max was coming”. After all the controversy last week, it looks like the race director is quickly losing control of the situation.
Presumably Lewis will be getting a grid penalty, for driving too quickly in the qualifying session?
I’m done betting on F1 this season, it’s turning into WWE with all the off-track bollocks and inconsistent application of the rule book.
Of course, that's contingent on penalties.
‘You made him look like a bloody idiot sir. But that ain’t difficult on account of the fact that he is a bloody idiot.’
https://twitter.com/DustbinDaz/status/1462119481468235776
Honestly, Michael Massi is a bigger **** than Nigel Farage and Mark Reckless combined.
Charlie Whiting would never have allowed this situation to occur.
I'm looking at the policy announced this week so the reality is somewhat different to the fantasy, as evidenced by these links in the thread header
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/17/englands-poorest-oaps-face-same-care-costs-as-wealthier-elderly-analysts-suggest
and
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/amended-social-care-plans-will-cost-most-people-more-p6gcsdfxd
But I'm a generous sort, and I'll accept my article is ridiculous, then why are Tory MPs publicly revolting on this policy announcement?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/20/boris-johnson-told-dump-plan-for-social-care-charges-or-face-tory-rebellion
It’s worth noting that there are no support races at this event, which is likely to massively favour the odd numbers on the grid, because the track is clean on that side and dirty on the ‘even’ side.
The one you can’t bet on, is the most likely outcome - Bernd Mayländer to lead the first lap, it’s likely to be carnage at the start!
Betting postF1: Backed Alonso at 5.75 to be best of the rest. Of 'the rest' only Gasly is ahead of him on-track, and Alonso's rather good at lap 1 overtakes.
The time difference in qualifying was a few-hundredths only.
Also, some betting suggestions for those with free bets or who like adding a bottle top here or there.
Smart - not dumb - politics.
But it doesn't deal with the fundamental problem in British politics (and indeed, the politics of the developed world): how do you pay for ageing populations?
The Conservative Party seems to have decided that the right thing to do is to become the party of the newly (and soon to be) retired. Hence their choice to raise National Insurance over Income tax, and now these reforms to social care costs. Every pound that does not come out of the recipient of the care's pocket needs to come out of a worker's pocket.
And that's the choice the government is making (and making repeatedly) - to tax the workers to pay for the retirees.
That has consequences - specifically, it means that of every hour of work, a greater proportion of your income is going to be spent on the support, health care and pensions of the old. And it starts a negative feedback loop too, as it encourages emigration. If the UK is following the taxation policies of the 1960s and 1970s, why not go somewhere where the government won't pick the pocket of workers?
Cummings is a curious figure. He has a lot of interesting ideas but seems to seriously over estimate his own abilities. I am doubtful that he can really learn from other people or react positively to feedback. Brexit is probably going to be his high water mark in terms of his political career.
But for it to hurt the Tories, it would need Labour to grow a spine and tell pensioners they’ve had it and got it too good.
The other thing in all this. The key metric is the asset wealth of the old. I don’t own my own house, but my parents do.
Clouds limited, sun's coming up; looks as though it's going to be quite a pleasant day.
One of the problems with this area of social care policy is that for many people it's academic; for (probably) Big G and myself it's something we have to think about every so often.
Mrs C and I would like to leave something to our children & grandchildren and, as we approach infirmity it becomes something of a direct concern.
I shall have to do some modelling (again) and see how a new scheme would affect us. Current objective, of course, is to have a few more years then get something quick and nasty!
If an opposition party gets traction - and so far none have - I suspect it will be on the subject of intergenerational conflict. Someone will manage to frame it as the Future vs the Past.
It's also worth noting that once a society has aged to a certain extent, it becomes very hard not to make decisions for the benefit of the old (who, after all, are much more likely to vote). Look at Italy: the oldies have completely captured the political system, choosing to protect their pensions via staying in the Euro, while screwing over the workers. And the young and the talented have responded by leaving the country.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/nov/20/ole-gunnar-solskjr-admits-united-players-are-in-a-terrible-place
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/11/20/ole-gunnar-solskjaer-brink-man-utd-sack-david-de-gea-admits/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/manchester-united-talking-exit-terms-with-ole-gunnar-solskjaer-after-emergency-board-meeting-gr0j9v5ht
Steven Gerrard, please take note.
They assumed any three bed semi anywhere in England was at lest £450k.
(Incidentally don't know what it's like round your way but it's been weirdly warm this month so far. Just one frost and most trees still have their leaves due to the lack of wind.)
Edit - although house prices have gone mad round here. Just checking, a three bed terrace in the next street, no off street parking, around £85,000 when I moved here in 2014, now offers over £180,000.
I need to get my house revalued next month so I can remortgage. I have no idea what it's worth but I'm thinking the 190k I assumed is going to be a significant underestimate.
Edit; We have got quite a lot of parking space though.
No, I’m actually in great form. Out walking the dog prior to an ice hockey match in half an hour. Got to inspect my NHL investment.
The £86 000 cap only applies to personal care, with "hotel costs" of board and lodging excluded. In addition only costs after October 2023 count to the cap, so at £1 000 per week, with £200 per week on hotel costs, no one will reach the new cap before late autumn 2025. Note that this is well after the next GE, though we will be paying the new levy from April 2022.
She died in September after 30 months there. She was generally quite happy in the home, enjoying the company and the arts and crafts, even though lockdown was difficult for visiting. It was her savings and money well spent as far as we were concerned. Mrs Foxy inherits a modest sum of about £27 000, as does her sister.
Start at 1.15.
My sense is this policy will get dropped and so limited political impact. Agree that Labour will want to keep the narrative on sleaze/can't trust the Tories.
Both are designed to keep Government costs as low as possible so how is Boris going to scrap either policy now he is just a figurehead with the Treasury back in full control?
Put like that I'm surprised that Johnson is proposing a variation on reform, rather than simply quietly pushing back any implementation date and slowly forgetting about it.
The REAL problem, as Foxy points out, is that hotel costs are not covered. So even people with large houses in the south will tend to lose them anyway from their estates. Nobody I know thinks this is a serious problem, but nobody I know is against IHT - the universal sentiment in my circle is "kids can make their own way, what parents leave is just a possible bonus, and we certainly don't want to live in Mum's house when she goes". But polls show that lots of people think differently.
So far, so sensible.
The problem, as so often, is that the government is trying to save money while implementing this sensible policy. The £86 000 cap wasn't chosen by accident. It's a year or so of nursing home fees, which happens to be the average length of a stay. Lottery losers with fewer assets will fall back on the state under current rules once their money runs out. The net change of this policy is to protect the assets of a small number of wealthy people.
The poor judgment is almost certainly Sunak's, not Johnson's. It doesn't matter though. Sunak is a very skilled blame-shifter.
https://twitter.com/simongallant7/status/1462156768134549524?s=20
I also think this idea that it's OK for the government to take 50% of your labour income but terrible for them to take 50% of your (potentially unearned windfall) housing equity *to pay for your own care* a bit weird.
One reason for charging "rent" is so they don't get any shocks when they leave home and suddenly have £x00 less pounds a month to live on.
People in Hartlepool will be clobbered in a way which people in Epping simply will not. So it's fair game for the LDs to get in the mud with the Tories on this issue.
I wonder if the opposition is mainly from the old folks rather than the potential recipients; I guess they feel like they've already paid a lot of tax on it, and taking out another chunk when they die feels unsporting. This doesn't apply to the heir, for whom its income that they only pay tax on once.
Maintaining the current Covid restrictions through the summer would only delay a wave of hospitalisations and deaths rather than reduce them, the chief medical officer for England has warned.
Prof Chris Whitty told a Downing Street briefing that while scientific opinion was mixed on when to lift the last remaining restrictions in the government’s roadmap out of lockdown, he believed that doing so in the summer had some advantages over releasing in the autumn.
“At a certain point, you move to the situation where instead of actually averting hospitalisations and deaths, you move over to just delaying them. So you’re not actually changing the number of people who will go to hospital or die, you may change when they happen,” he said.
“There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons,” he added.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/chris-whitty-keeping-covid-restrictions-will-only-delay-wave
Yet how this can be done without alienating other components such as northern red waller voterts is an increasingly tricky matter.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/21/has-boris-johnson-crashed-the-tory-car
"Last week, an announcement on social care further infuriated Tory MPs from less well-off areas, as it meant poorer pensioners paying the same as wealthier people. The idea that a government led by Johnson would be progressive had fallen victim again to lack of money and the Treasury’s wariness of further tax rises. Senior backbenchers such as Damian Green and former health secretary Jeremy Hunt criticised the plan as unprogressive. A Commons rebellion is brewing ahead of a vote on the issue early this week.
Many of the Tory party’s recent problems can be put down to poor judgments and poor presentation. But as Johnson struggles to keep a grip, it is also becoming clearer that a core problem is that of how to govern for a new, post-2019 coalition of Tory voters that is so wide and disparate, and includes Tory conquests behind the red wall."
Boris's real problem now is that he changed the Tory party from having rich Southern Pensioners at it's core to targetting northern seats. The Lib Dems are going to do well targeting those Southern votes via NIMBYISM and social care, and Labour will focus on look at everything Boris promised and failed to deliver.
This is effectively catastrophe insurance which is frequently provided at the government level.
Does catastrophe insurance offer more protection to the rich? Yes. But that’s only incidental. It’s designed to offer 100% protection regardless of wealth
It does start to sound a lot like Mrs May's 2017 manifesto proposal...
Edit – I had to spend a lot of time in London when I was doing my PhD because all my research was in the British Library, the National Archives or the London Metropolitan Archives. My favourite sight in London is a big blue sign that says 'Reading and the West M4.' I stand by my statement that it is a shitheap.
Ordinary hard working people with families live in these areas and are the salt of the earth
Who on earth do you think you are