politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their w

Time is running out for the Tories. Once we get past conference season we are on the home straight.

FPT - The constituencies in the Ashcroft poll only account for down to number 20 on Labour's list of targets from the Tories. I don't think they're sufficient basis to say Labour is heading for a working majority, as if Labour took their top 20 targets, Tories would still be the largest party.

Doesn't this show that some Kippers are former Lab voters?

Thanks for the various comments regarding Southampton Itchen on the last thread!

Topping

Please keep making the excuses. Wages fell last time the stats came out. That's what the public feels.

IOS said:

I am fairly sure that Rod's model had the Tories regularly posting leads by now. Just as inaccurate as that Fisher projection. He was so far off with the council election results I am surprised anyone takes it seriously.

Well you can't criticise him for putting his prediction out there. I am keeping track of PBers (and a few others) seat predictions to see both how they evolve, and who called it right:

http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

Love it when I come onto pb for the first time all day and it's a new thread! Sad I know. Not as sad as Cameron, Osborne, Hodges etc will all be feeling when they see this mind.

Does it seem as if Miliband truly has the marginals magic? Too early to say but the Ed is useless stuff needs to stop.

Rob

Good stuff. But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority! Rod also had a 0% chance of a Labour majority.

IOS said:

Rob

Good stuff. But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority! Rod also had a 0% chance of a Labour majority.

Well their model has been revised somewhat ;-)

IOS said:

I am fairly sure that Rod's model had the Tories regularly posting leads by now. Just as inaccurate as that Fisher projection. He was so far off with the council election results I am surprised anyone takes it seriously.

While perhaps too nuanced for the GBP (Great British Public) I would have expected you to understand that such is the nature both of freedom of movement and of globalisation. Wages will increase as innovation and productivity increases but there are some pretty powerful forces ranged against increases in wages for many Brits. Perhaps we need to reinvent ourselves (we are certainly doing hugely so in key industries, but that needs to broaden).

It might be an unsayable message for any political party. But the good times are not over, but are more demanding.

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

IOS said:

Time is running out for the Tories. Once we get past conference season we are on the home straight.

Yep that pesky improving economy is really going to work against the Tories, come May 2015.

It may be that the Blues lose in spite of a good economy. A fickle lot, the British public.

Yep absolutely agree. "What was all the fuss about" might easily be a reaction. As they say, no good deed goes unpunished and the Tories might have been too successful.

Huge shame if so but that's life. Luckily even loons like Ed Balls now realise that the mistakes of 1997-2010 cannot be repeated without consequences.

IOS said:

Rob

Rods hasn't. Fisher did revise his between his first and second output. However it is still built on a massive fault that anyone can see - let alone a professor of politics - that is the assumption that a coalition government with 4 main political parties will follow the exact same pattern as previous two party single government elections!

Oh, sorry I was just referring to Fisher's model. I couldn't find predictions from him before April this year, so couldn't add them to the list. He must have been predicting 330, 340 Tory seats?

Edmund

A good analogy would be Labour voters in Scotland who were saying SNP in the polls before the general. Still feel right back behind Labour when it mattered.

Sages of PB: are we expecting any polls tonight, other than the daily YouGov?

strikes me is that Lord Ashcroft is succeeding in his one man effort to undermine the Conservative party. I'm sure David Davis is appreciative.

Flightpath said:

strikes me is that Lord Ashcroft is succeeding in his one man effort to undermine the Conservative party. I'm sure David Davis is appreciative.

I'd hardly call getting more information on marginals as undermining the Tories, CCHQ are probably glad for the free numbers.

edmundintokyo said:

IOS said:

Edmund

Not so sure on that. I can see a lot of Lab voters in safe Labour seats saying they are UKIP now but when it comes to a straight up choice between Labour and Tory trudging to the polling stations and voting Labour.

Also, Labours ground game should mean we work those voters hard in marginals to get them back round.

You're probably right that UKIP will get squeezed from both ends, especially in the marginals. Con may still benefit more than Lab from that, though. Although there are some problems with the idea of a referendum promise bringing a lot of them to Con - firstly that they don't really care that much about the EU, and secondly that they don't believe the promise - it's probably better for Con than nothing.

But the thing is, when you look at Kippers' answers on the "issues" questions, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win them over. On most economic issues, the average Kipper is literally at the polar opposite of the Tories policies. So it's hard to see how on earth a Tory campaign based on "economic competence" is going to win them over.

It seems to me the only way the Tories could win them back is by somehow announcing they're stopping all immigration from Eastern Europe, or some other sort of symbolic anti-EU gesture like the 2011 "veto". And even something like that risks alienating more moderate Tory voters.

FormerToryOrange said:

FPT - The constituencies in the Ashcroft poll only account for down to number 20 on Labour's list of targets from the Tories. I don't think they're sufficient basis to say Labour is heading for a working majority, as if Labour took their top 20 targets, Tories would still be the largest party.

Sure. But these findings combined with the others show pretty clearly that Labour is doing at least as well in marginals as nationally, and the gaps here are fairly substantial, Itchen aside. It would be odd if the next tranche upwards showed a different pattern.

However. This week has had a lot of Cameron in the media - defying ISIS, denouncing sexy videos, offering parental guidance, etc. Perhaps it will help? It'll be interesting to see if there's another relatively good Tory poll tonight.

Ed M could well get in. All he has to do is to say very little and run a few scare stories about the NHS.

All Ed Balls has to do is to say very little but orchestrate an outbreak of sensible and moderate economic non-sequiturs by the shadow cabinet.

Hmm ... seems like that's Plan A (and B and C, and plan D is to sound tough on immigration).

Like the Independence referendum, once you win, you can adjust as you want.

Nick

I actually think we would be doing better in the marginals that are 40 - 80 for Labour. That is at least where the party will be throwing its most central resources.

Danny565 said:

edmundintokyo said:

IOS said:

Edmund

Not so sure on that. I can see a lot of Lab voters in safe Labour seats saying they are UKIP now but when it comes to a straight up choice between Labour and Tory trudging to the polling stations and voting Labour.

Also, Labours ground game should mean we work those voters hard in marginals to get them back round.

You're probably right that UKIP will get squeezed from both ends, especially in the marginals. Con may still benefit more than Lab from that, though. Although there are some problems with the idea of a referendum promise bringing a lot of them to Con - firstly that they don't really care that much about the EU, and secondly that they don't believe the promise - it's probably better for Con than nothing.

But the thing is, when you look at Kippers' answers on the "issues" questions, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win them over. On most economic issues, the average Kipper is literally at the polar opposite of the Tories policies. So it's hard to see how on earth a Tory campaign based on "economic competence" is going to win them over.

It seems to me the only way the Tories could win them back is by somehow announcing they're stopping all immigration from Eastern Europe, or some other sort of symbolic anti-EU gesture like the 2011 "veto". And even something like that risks alienating more moderate Tory voters.

Traditionally the move would be to come up with some kind of right-wing populist pander on social issues, designed to offend some element of the Labour coalition enough to prevent them from matching it.

Assuming that's what they do, I think the downside for them is not so much alienating moderate Tories as riling up Labour sympathisers who couldn't otherwise be arsed to vote.

murali_s said:

RobD said:

IOS said:

I am fairly sure that Rod's model had the Tories regularly posting leads by now. Just as inaccurate as that Fisher projection. He was so far off with the council election results I am surprised anyone takes it seriously.

Well you can't criticise him for putting his prediction out there. I am keeping track of PBers (and a few others) seat predictions to see both how they evolve, and who called it right:

http://goo.gl/h6wlj9

Thanks for compiling Rob

The MEF had an update on the 2nd August - not much change....

C 296
L 298
LD 28
UKIP 28
OTH 28

Thanks, I'll try to keep an eye out!

PS. I assume the UKIP seats are a typo ;-)

Iraq:

I reported last week that Nouri Al Maliki decided to step aside after the Iranians gave assurances that he would be safe from prosecution and would have a continuing role in Iraqi politics. Talk is that that a Vice Presidential or ministry post may well be in the offing.

On the floor, ISIS hasn't wasted any time trying to retake the Mosul Dam and has sent out forces to counter attack near the facility. The US priority as communicated to the Iraqis and Kurds is to secure the Dam then try to get hold of Mosul city. This militarily and symbolically makes sense. Holding Mosul is important to ISIS. As a major urban centre at one end of the Caliphate it helps make the Caliphate real, its a source of wealth, raw cash from banks and other facilities, a logistical hub and also of a lot of seized military kit and other tricky goods that the US really don't want being out in the wild. Much of it is still believed to be within the immediate vicinity of Mosul. It represents the right flank of what is, relatively, friendly territory for ISIS in its control zone between Iraq and Syria.

I mentioned the other day the idea of a find and fix operation where you locate and then fix the opponents into a zone where you can deliver focussed attacks with all the advantages the US can bring..in short lots of heavy air munitions. By doing so you deliver a decisive blow that knocks a considerable hole in the enemies resource in one area that isn't easily replaced across the overall front. Mosul represents such a fix location.

ISIS will not however make it easy and their acute awareness of economic levers has seen them attacking near to be both the Haditha and Taqba Dams in Iraq and Syria respectively and control considerable oil trafficking

Fully expect the US (or possibly an ally) to announce its killed a senior/high profile ISIS official soon enough.

The graphic is also an indication of where those UKIP voters came from, as well as an indication of the direction in which they may return. The thing which saves the ConservativeParty from defeat is the normal process of swingback from Lab to Con, from mid-term to GE day, which has been happening already for some time and will continue to happen. How many votes UKIP gets in the meantime is somewhat irrelevant, if those UKIP votes come from different directions in the first place.

"Beauty of Anatomy" episode 2 on BBC4 now:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04dq8j7

Alanbrooke said:

Interesting article on the shift from oil to other energy sources.

Raises all sorts of question re iScotland and the future of Arab states with drastically reduced income.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11046842/Oil-industry-on-borrowed-time-as-switch-to-gas-and-solar-accelerates.html

As you said the other day, Mr. Brooke, the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones and the oil age won't end because we run out of oil (though I think you might have been quoting a Saudi chap).

That said, when I looked into solar for my place, I have a very large South facing roof, I couldn't get the figures to work, at least not during my expected lifetime.

Something keeps jumping out at me from the seat polls and varied GE forecasts: The LDs are being beasted. Ashcroft has their Lab-LD marginals going Red by huge margins. Steve Fisher estimates they'll get 31 seats, based on 12.8% of the vote. ElectionForecast.co.uk predicts 25 seats on 14.7% (which is slightly odd, but whatever). Yet 21-30 seats is still 3/1. My biggest prediction for the election is that at some point between now and then, probably in early 2015, there will be a sharp correction in LD expectations as it suddenly hits us they are going to get ~10% of the votes.

tl;dr - Bet the LDs will win fewer than 30 seats, the value is insane.

Quincel said:

Something keeps jumping out at me from the seat polls and varied GE forecasts: The LDs are being beasted. Ashcroft has their Lab-LD marginals going Red by huge margins. Steve Fisher estimates they'll get 31 seats, based on 12.8% of the vote. ElectionForecast.co.uk predicts 25 seats on 14.7% (which is slightly odd, but whatever). Yet 21-30 seats is still 3/1. My biggest prediction for the election is that at some point between now and then, probably in early 2015, there will be a sharp correction in LD expectations as it suddenly hits us they are going to get ~10% of the votes.

tl;dr - Bet the LDs will win fewer than 30 seats, the value is insane.

I agree. Even as a Lib Dem voter I can see that sub 30 seats is likely.

The rise of government shakedowns continues - Bank of America has reached a deal with states and federal officials to pay $17 billion over miss-selling mortgages

Hugh said:

Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.

Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.

Well this PB Tory said down-thread that the Tories may lose in spite of the economy. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it... ;-)

matt said:

Alanbrooke said:

matt said:

Alanbrooke said:

Interesting article on the shift from oil to other energy sources.

Raises all sorts of question re iScotland and the future of Arab states with drastically reduced income.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11046842/Oil-industry-on-borrowed-time-as-switch-to-gas-and-solar-accelerates.html

It's Evans-Pritchard. He's the new Anatole Kaletsky in terms of a sh1te:sense ratio. Checks his conclusions vs reality. Still, a stopped clock is right twice a day.....

reading his article I suspect he's summarising someone else's research, but make your own mind up. If hes even half right we face a much changed world.

Yes, that's correct and I'm sympathetic with many of the conclusions: the oil industry won't disappear but super-deep has always been a risky proposition economically and technologically. It's the messenger, though. Having said that, it's an interesting article given the Telegraph demographic and the predispositions of its readers (at least online).

Mr. Matt, I don't think anyone is sating that the Oil industry will disappear, or even shrink very much in the immediate future. Just that over time, and quite a long time it will gradually become less important.

One of the things that always makes me chuckle when people start talking about energ is how the seem to assume that gas, oil and electricity are interchangeable. They aren't of course, each does a different job. One day we may have electric cars worth a damn outside a big city but I doubt it in my lifetime and maybe heating our homes with electricity rather than gas might be worth doing (night storage heaters anyone?) but again I doubt if I'll see it.

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

both. In the same way in 2010 the Tories at one time polled 52% it was never going to end up that way, just as this polling isn't going to be how it is on polling day.

Its a guess at best. Ed could romp home , or Dave could benefit from swingback , either way, extrapolating from this data only tells is about now, not May 2015.

JosiasJessop said:

Hugh said:

Oh and the PBTories hang on RodCrosby's every calculation

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Sinclair_ZX_Spectrum.jpg

A Spectrum? Really? It always sounded a little too much like speculum for my linking.

No, there's only one early-1980s computer worth having:
http://www.bygonebytes.co.uk/images/BBCB.jpg

Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.

The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.

Someone's written an article reflecting what I've been thinking about London recently, which is that it's a fantastic place to live - as long as you're either rich, famous, powerful, etc:

http://technicallyron.com/2014/08/20/how-to-live-in-london/

"Commuting is bloody awful. Everyone on the tube or bus looks like they’ve just been dumped, when it rains everyone smells like a wet bear covered in moss, when the sun is out everyone smells like a kebab left under the folds of a sweaty Jabba the Hut. Nobody likes to touch anyone else, nobody likes to make eye contact with anyone else, yet they purposefully throw themselves onto trains even though there is another in 1 minute."

Hugh said:

Sean_F said:

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.

Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.

We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.

If you only look at headline VI numbers rather than understanding political dynamics by looking at polls.

And if you believe in the crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media (most of which happens of course to be Tory)

Then you Tories have reasons for hope.

There is always hope.

While I expect to see a small blip in the polls in various directions at conference season and referendum result time, I would not anticipate anything dramatic and sustained this year.

Late January February is the earliest time significant ans permanent movement may start, with more motion in the polls during the last month as we become a late swinging nation.

What strikes me about the graph is that 25% of UKIP voters would prefer the next government to have the LIb Dems as part of it.

Does that mean that many UKIP inclined voters in Lib Dem marginal seats might be up for grabs?

Sean_F said:

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.

Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.

We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.

OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)

1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.

2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.

Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.

The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

Hugh said:

Oh and the PBTories hang on RodCrosby's every calculation

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Sinclair_ZX_Spectrum.jpg

A Spectrum? Really? It always sounded a little too much like speculum for my linking.

No, there's only one early-1980s computer worth having:
http://www.bygonebytes.co.uk/images/BBCB.jpg

Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.

The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.

Then you might be interested in the new version, Elite: Dangerous, by one of the co-creators of the original game. It's great fun despite being in Beta, but sadly I've not got enough free time to play it extensively. Which is annoying, as I've waited thirty years for it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISR4ebdGlOk

I nearly called myself 'Cmdr Jameson' on PB, but decided that would be a little too sad. So I settled for a nineteenth century canal engineer instead ...

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.

Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.

We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.

OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)

1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.

2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.

Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bad - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.

The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

The lead isn't solid though. We're getting a fair number of polls giving Labour vote shares of under 35%. That seems a very flimsy basis on which to predict a Labour victory.

UKIP will poll well in 2015, but not at their current level (I say 9-10%, rather than 13-14%).

Sean_F said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.

Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.

We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.

OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)

1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.

2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.

Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bad - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.

The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

The lead isn't solid though. We're getting a fair number of polls giving Labour vote shares of under 35%. That seems a very flimsy basis on which to predict a Labour victory.

UKIP will poll well in 2015, but not at their current level (I say 9-10%, rather than 13-14%).

Oh and I forget the third point that has it in the bag for Labour - The boundaries.

Labour could sink to 30%, but as long as Con is no more than 3% ahead, Labour still get's a majority. Apparently.

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

Hugh said:

Oh and the PBTories hang on RodCrosby's every calculation

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Sinclair_ZX_Spectrum.jpg

A Spectrum? Really? It always sounded a little too much like speculum for my linking.

No, there's only one early-1980s computer worth having:
http://www.bygonebytes.co.uk/images/BBCB.jpg

Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.

The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.

Ah, a fellow-sufferer - I gave up on Elite altogether for that reason. Too many games nowadays also depend on manual dexterity. I totally sympathised with the American designer who got monstered for suggesting that games should include an optional pass-through for combat, for players who just enjoy engaging with the plot and don't want to get stuck on how to jump the crevasse or win the light sabre duel. (She got so much abuse that her company had to officially ask fans to lay off.)

Hugh said:

GIN1138 said:

Sean_F said:

Hugh said:

SquareRoot said:

I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion.
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.

You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?

I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.

Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.

We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.

OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)

1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.

2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.

Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.

The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

There's also the small matter of what's happening in the country. People feel Cameron and the Tories have shafted them a bit, they're not feeling this so called "economic recovery" but the Cameron and Osbornes mates are.

"Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.

Of course according to Labour there was never going to be a recovery in the first place, LOL!

And the argument is still that you shouldn't let the folks who crashed the car back in the driving seat...

RobD said:

Hugh said:

Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.

Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.

Well this PB Tory said down-thread that the Tories may lose in spite of the economy. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it... ;-)

Rob if you think you will alter the image the lefters have of the nasty posho Tories I believe you are wasting your time...

NickPalmer said:

HurstLlama said:

JosiasJessop said:

Hugh said:

Oh and the PBTories hang on RodCrosby's every calculation

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Sinclair_ZX_Spectrum.jpg

A Spectrum? Really? It always sounded a little too much like speculum for my linking.

No, there's only one early-1980s computer worth having:
http://www.bygonebytes.co.uk/images/BBCB.jpg

Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.

The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.

Ah, a fellow-sufferer - I gave up on Elite altogether for that reason. Too many games nowadays also depend on manual dexterity. I totally sympathised with the American designer who got monstered for suggesting that games should include an optional pass-through for combat, for players who just enjoy engaging with the plot and don't want to get stuck on how to jump the crevasse or win the light sabre duel. (She got so much abuse that her company had to officially ask fans to lay off.)

But surely that was what made Elite a ground-breaking game: you could choose what to do, whether that was combat or trading.

And some things in life are worth persevering with. Like manual docking in Elite. ;-)

(I've actually seen David Braben manually dock on an original BBC B version of Elite. Which is a fairly sad and dubious claim to fame)

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Hugh said:

Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.

Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.

Well this PB Tory said down-thread that the Tories may lose in spite of the economy. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it... ;-)

Rob if you think you will alter the image the lefters have of the nasty posho Tories I believe you are wasting your time...

I thought this post was delightfully ironic given that you have a top hat as an avatar. LOL!

I believe it's called "flooding" or "exposure therapy"; I'm here to help, @Hugh‌.