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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON hopes that UKIP returners will eventually swing their way are undermined by this Lord Ashcroft finding
After the July round of Ashcroft marginals polling I highlighted the “preferred GE2015 outcome” polling which surprisingly had a CON government only 1% ahead of a LAB one.
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Thanks for the various comments regarding Southampton Itchen on the last thread!
Please keep making the excuses. Wages fell last time the stats came out. That's what the public feels.
http://goo.gl/h6wlj9
Does it seem as if Miliband truly has the marginals magic? Too early to say but the Ed is useless stuff needs to stop.
There was a big chunk of Tory support in 2010 who said even then that they identified more with Labour, but were just voting for the Tories that time because they trusted the Tories more on immigration, because they didn't like Gordon Brown or they simply thought it was "time for a change".
Good stuff. But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority! Rod also had a 0% chance of a Labour majority.
Not so sure on that. I can see a lot of Lab voters in safe Labour seats saying they are UKIP now but when it comes to a straight up choice between Labour and Tory trudging to the polling stations and voting Labour.
Also, Labours ground game should mean we work those voters hard in marginals to get them back round.
It might be an unsayable message for any political party. But the good times are not over, but are more demanding.
Rods hasn't. Fisher did revise his between his first and second output. However it is still built on a massive fault that anyone can see - let alone a professor of politics - that is the assumption that a coalition government with 4 main political parties will follow the exact same pattern as previous two party single government elections!
Huge shame if so but that's life. Luckily even loons like Ed Balls now realise that the mistakes of 1997-2010 cannot be repeated without consequences.
if you are writing a paragraph to make a political argument have lost.
1) Do you feel like you have benefited from the recovery?
2) Do you feel like Cameron and Osborne understand how tough things are for you?
British public say no to both.
A good analogy would be Labour voters in Scotland who were saying SNP in the polls before the general. Still feel right back behind Labour when it mattered.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100283493/so-why-dont-you-join-ukip-hannan
One batshit crazy kipper even suggests that Dan Hannan is a closet Muslim.
Start with ... 'it's only a tiny minority' ((some truth in this), then go on to 'we were just as bad' (historical event not supported by anyone in control) and then finally, probably tomorrow, 'it's all our fault anyway for invading, suppressing, demonising or not supporting diversity enough'.
But left wing politicians, with the exception of George Galloway and possibly Ken, will rapidly distance themselves.
Probably Ukip - small blip up, Tories neutral, and Labour small blip down - in the same way that NHS is good for them, home grown terrorists beheading random journalists can't be.
DC/GO have done extraordinarily well to coax the British economy (which is still too reliant on house prices) back to strong growth. But yes, wages have lagged plus both DC & GO are poshos.
And perhaps people will forget how very close we were to the edge. Perhaps some will think that "it could never (have) happened to us"; others will, as you say, think - to hell with the recovery, it doesn't affect me.
But such views will overlook the state we were in and the fact that had we stayed with Lab we would have had serious not to say catastrophic economic issues. I mean @Hugh thinks that nothing was broken and that we had sustainable growth in 2010 so you can see the level of understanding that we are dealing with.
But as to your point, yes you are right; people might not see the broader picture and after all they only vote a government in to benefit themselves personally, don't they? Even supposed socialists and those on the left.
It seems to me the only way the Tories could win them back is by somehow announcing they're stopping all immigration from Eastern Europe, or some other sort of symbolic anti-EU gesture like the 2011 "veto". And even something like that risks alienating more moderate Tory voters.
If you count reporting accurately how much trouble the Tories really are in, rather than the excessive cheer-leading from the press. Then yes. Yes he is.
However. This week has had a lot of Cameron in the media - defying ISIS, denouncing sexy videos, offering parental guidance, etc. Perhaps it will help? It'll be interesting to see if there's another relatively good Tory poll tonight.
The Tories need to play another card...
All Ed Balls has to do is to say very little but orchestrate an outbreak of sensible and moderate economic non-sequiturs by the shadow cabinet.
Hmm ... seems like that's Plan A (and B and C, and plan D is to sound tough on immigration).
Like the Independence referendum, once you win, you can adjust as you want.
The MEF had an update on the 2nd August - not much change....
C 296
L 298
LD 28
UKIP 28
OTH 28
I actually think we would be doing better in the marginals that are 40 - 80 for Labour. That is at least where the party will be throwing its most central resources.
Assuming that's what they do, I think the downside for them is not so much alienating moderate Tories as riling up Labour sympathisers who couldn't otherwise be arsed to vote.
PS. I assume the UKIP seats are a typo ;-)
I reported last week that Nouri Al Maliki decided to step aside after the Iranians gave assurances that he would be safe from prosecution and would have a continuing role in Iraqi politics. Talk is that that a Vice Presidential or ministry post may well be in the offing.
On the floor, ISIS hasn't wasted any time trying to retake the Mosul Dam and has sent out forces to counter attack near the facility. The US priority as communicated to the Iraqis and Kurds is to secure the Dam then try to get hold of Mosul city. This militarily and symbolically makes sense. Holding Mosul is important to ISIS. As a major urban centre at one end of the Caliphate it helps make the Caliphate real, its a source of wealth, raw cash from banks and other facilities, a logistical hub and also of a lot of seized military kit and other tricky goods that the US really don't want being out in the wild. Much of it is still believed to be within the immediate vicinity of Mosul. It represents the right flank of what is, relatively, friendly territory for ISIS in its control zone between Iraq and Syria.
I mentioned the other day the idea of a find and fix operation where you locate and then fix the opponents into a zone where you can deliver focussed attacks with all the advantages the US can bring..in short lots of heavy air munitions. By doing so you deliver a decisive blow that knocks a considerable hole in the enemies resource in one area that isn't easily replaced across the overall front. Mosul represents such a fix location.
ISIS will not however make it easy and their acute awareness of economic levers has seen them attacking near to be both the Haditha and Taqba Dams in Iraq and Syria respectively and control considerable oil trafficking
Fully expect the US (or possibly an ally) to announce its killed a senior/high profile ISIS official soon enough.
Not been in the best of health this week but was able to watch Australia win at York this afternoon. It's a really good year for the 3-y-o with Taghrooda and Kingman in Britain, Avenir Certain in France and Sea The Moon in Germany.
On topic, my vague recollection was 40% of UKIP supporters favouring a Conservative Government but that was nationally so not surprising to see the marginal number a little different. but interesting nonetheless.
Raises all sorts of question re iScotland and the future of Arab states with drastically reduced income.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11046842/Oil-industry-on-borrowed-time-as-switch-to-gas-and-solar-accelerates.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04dq8j7
That said, when I looked into solar for my place, I have a very large South facing roof, I couldn't get the figures to work, at least not during my expected lifetime.
Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Sinclair_ZX_Spectrum.jpg
tl;dr - Bet the LDs will win fewer than 30 seats, the value is insane.
I am coming round to a a Labour government myself. Shadsy's 326-350 band for Labour looks good.
http://www.aina.org/news/20140729115702.htm
What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.
No, there's only one early-1980s computer worth having:
http://www.bygonebytes.co.uk/images/BBCB.jpg
Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.
One of the things that always makes me chuckle when people start talking about energ is how the seem to assume that gas, oil and electricity are interchangeable. They aren't of course, each does a different job. One day we may have electric cars worth a damn outside a big city but I doubt it in my lifetime and maybe heating our homes with electricity rather than gas might be worth doing (night storage heaters anyone?) but again I doubt if I'll see it.
Its a guess at best. Ed could romp home , or Dave could benefit from swingback , either way, extrapolating from this data only tells is about now, not May 2015.
Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.
We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.
There are more than that who can't recall who they voted for last time, I suspect.
http://technicallyron.com/2014/08/20/how-to-live-in-london/
"Commuting is bloody awful. Everyone on the tube or bus looks like they’ve just been dumped, when it rains everyone smells like a wet bear covered in moss, when the sun is out everyone smells like a kebab left under the folds of a sweaty Jabba the Hut. Nobody likes to touch anyone else, nobody likes to make eye contact with anyone else, yet they purposefully throw themselves onto trains even though there is another in 1 minute."
And if you believe in the crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media (most of which happens of course to be Tory)
Then you Tories have reasons for hope.
This strikes me as the most wide-open election since at least 1979, which is what makes it interesting. If you disagree, and have nothing to offer beyond frankly moronic "nyah-nyah-nyahnyahnyah you are going to lose" posts, why not save them up for a great big fat "I told you so" post after the election, and hold fire in the meantime?
Here's a sequence of numbers for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3. I don't know if they worry you, but I bet they worry ed miliband. Perhaps you have even more intellectual self-confidence than he does.
While I expect to see a small blip in the polls in various directions at conference season and referendum result time, I would not anticipate anything dramatic and sustained this year.
Late January February is the earliest time significant ans permanent movement may start, with more motion in the polls during the last month as we become a late swinging nation.
Supporter of Party Y thinks Party Y will win / do better than expected.
What possible purpose is served by these posts?
It is like children in a primary school saying their favourite football team will win / their favourite pop group will top the charts / their favourite act will win X Factor.
Does that mean that many UKIP inclined voters in Lib Dem marginal seats might be up for grabs?
I suppose I'm just imagining that the Conservatives led by 14-18% in August 2009, and that lead gradually declined in the run up to the general election.
1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.
2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.
Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.
The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Any government supporters who think the NMW increase is going to get them out of a hole are going to be disappointed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISR4ebdGlOk
I nearly called myself 'Cmdr Jameson' on PB, but decided that would be a little too sad. So I settled for a nineteenth century canal engineer instead ...
Never mind, pump your numbers into the Swingback supercomputer see what happens. And don't forget Rupert is gonna "Kinnock" Ed to help his mate Dave, that'll save you!
UKIP will poll well in 2015, but not at their current level (I say 9-10%, rather than 13-14%).
Since his disappearance some time ago the assumption, pretty much unchallenged, was that he was in the hands of Assad's forces, with focus upon Air Force Intelligence, one of Bashar's most trusted outfits.
So how did he end up with ISIS? Was he always in their or other insurgent hands, was he captured from Assad forces custody or was he mysteriously handed over?
He isn't the only journalist assumed held by Assad's forces.
Lets see what the intelligence community assessment is or will they say nothing?
Labour could sink to 30%, but as long as Con is no more than 3% ahead, Labour still get's a majority. Apparently.
"Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.
Of course according to Labour there was never going to be a recovery in the first place, LOL!
And the argument is still that you shouldn't let the folks who crashed the car back in the driving seat...
And some things in life are worth persevering with. Like manual docking in Elite. ;-)
(I've actually seen David Braben manually dock on an original BBC B version of Elite. Which is a fairly sad and dubious claim to fame)