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  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited August 2014
    There will not be a sustained conflict on UK soil based on what we know:

    1. The actual hard core of willing to go out and shoot, bomb and knife people is proportionally very small and lacking central organisation.

    2. The sympathiser network is undoubtedly large enough to support a sustained terror campaign but its quite diverse and disorganised and also lacks 'active' sympathisers providing logistics, locations, money.

    3. The current approach used by Islamic radicals in home grown attacks results in self-managing terror capability, because those who are game to go out do it once, kill themselves or get lifted.

    The only way to bring a country to its knees by terror is to sustain it, week in, week out and to do that you need your better, willing operatives to stay alive to start with.

    Curiously, ISIS military approach is different in that regard than their globalist ex-mates in Al Qaeda. They do do the odd suicide bomber alright but they also like to live. Whether that somewhat obvious point rubs off on those suitably inspired by ISIS is anyones guess. ISIS does, however, offer the possibility of keeping its imported members in because its interest is actually making a state, Al Qaeda tendency is to make statements.





  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800



    OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)

    1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.

    2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.

    Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.

    The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2


    Absolutely. There's also the small matter of what's happening in the country. People feel Cameron and the Tories have shafted them a bit, they're not feeling this so called "economic recovery" but the Cameron and Osbornes mates are.

    "Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.

    What is Ed's plan?

    Stop Cameron's Cost of Living Crisis by making sure that ordinary people feel the benefits of economic recovery and not just the few.

    For example by freezing energy prices, reversing the millionaires tax cut, and stopping the sell-off of the NHS.

    Bit vague that isn't it, but think about it, and bear in mind polling, it might be compelling....

    Fixing energy prices takes us back to the good old 70's, millionaires pay more in tax than they did for all but a few weeks under 13 years of Labour, and Burnham started the NHS privatization contracts.

    If that is all Ed has got he is well and truly fucked.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @nigel4england

    'Please explain why he is wrong and also enlighten me as to how multiculturalism has been a success.'

    You surely aren't expecting an answer from wee Hughie,he only does slogans.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    AndyJS said:

    Hugh said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    And that would mean what for this country mr T ?

    I think the West would win. But it would mean ferocious civil strife as we rooted out Islamic extremism in the UK. Internment and expulsion would be commonplace. The same would hold for many European countries with significant Muslim populations.

    I fear the multicultural experiment has failed in the most catastrophic of ways. And liberal western democracy is simply incompatible with Muslim populations above about 1-2% max.

    Above 10-20% and you have the perfect recipe for violent civil war.

    I hope, for my daughter's sake, that I am utterly and laughably wrong.
    You are laughably wrong. Go have a kebab, you insecure little posh boy flower. And stop lifting your smalls to the dull Rightwing masses and do something worthwhile you shameless hussey!
    "Dull rightwing masses"?
    Had loads of them at my Catholic School.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    john_zims said:

    @nigel4england

    'Please explain why he is wrong and also enlighten me as to how multiculturalism has been a success.'

    You surely aren't expecting an answer from wee Hughie,he only does slogans.

    And wine tasting....
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    "The coming world war"

    Oh God.

    We'll get Enoch lovers here any moment.

    Your work is done Sean, let them roll!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    The burning question is......Should I be wearing a bullet proof vest when I go to the local newsagents?
    Yours paranoidelly
    Me.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Hugh said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    "The coming world war"

    Oh God.

    We'll get Enoch lovers here any moment.

    Your work is done Sean, let them roll!
    Can you answer my question please
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @nigel4england

    'If that is all Ed has got he is well and truly fucked.'

    You missed out trashing the private sector rental market,it's all 70's retro with Ed.

    Just need Ed's mate McCluskey to deliver on the strikes..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    Reading PB these days convinces me more than ever that there are countless apartheids in British society between people who have almost nothing in common with each other. (Disclaimer: I'm not talking about race, religion, ethnicity, etc).
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Smarmeron said:

    The burning question is......Should I be wearing a bullet proof vest when I go to the local newsagents?
    Yours paranoidelly
    Me.

    I doubt Sean "Bear Grylls" T does "local newsagents".

    Unless they double as a deli that does goats cheese and ciabatta with a cheeky white rioja that is simply to DIE FOR!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AndyJS
    Lack of social cohesion? It is one of the downsides of "individualism", we become self centered and egotistical.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    AndyJS said:

    Reading PB these days convinces me more than ever that there are countless apartheids in British society between people who have almost nothing in common with each other. (Disclaimer: I'm not talking about race, religion, ethnicity, etc).

    PB may not be entirely representative of British society....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    Reading PB these days convinces me more than ever that there are countless apartheids in British society between people who have almost nothing in common with each other.

    It took the PB comments section to prove that?

    On this bizarre debate that has broken out, even if one quibbles over the phrase 'world war' or something like 'Islam vs the West', the conflicts and dangers from the hardline extremists doe feel like it is rising, not diminishing, which seems like it has the chance to expand further as a result. That might not happen, but it has to be a possibility given recent years.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
    I take it you think it is then.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Hugh
    We were discussing ISIS and the middle east in general.
    Mo is with Sean and thinks we should nuke them, Ali just wishes they would all just stop.
    I fear neither of them have the qualifications necessary for violent Jihad
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    AndyJS said:

    Chilling interview on Newsnight with an ISIS fighter from the UK.

    Grotesque
    But we get chillingly ignorant comments on interweb newsites all the time; ISIS have no monopoly in it. Chilling ignorance is common. The chillingly ignorant ISIS fighter still lives in a medieval mindset and has been given the opportunity to vent his ignorance; this is the key difference. Does dissolving into equally crass stupidity help us?
  • Smarmeron said:

    Lack of social cohesion? It is one of the downsides of "individualism", we become self centered and egotistical.

    Can you name a society at any point in history in which "individualism" did not exist, save where it was repressed by brute force? Your tedious clichés would disgrace a Junior Common Room at Cambridge.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @nigel4england

    ''cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?'

    Hugh and the rest of the Tunbridge Wells set think so.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    john_zims said:

    @nigel4england

    ''cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?'

    Hugh and the rest of the Tunbridge Wells set think so.

    Smarmeron said:

    Lack of social cohesion? It is one of the downsides of "individualism", we become self centered and egotistical.

    Can you name a society at any point in history in which "individualism" did not exist, save where it was repressed by brute force? Your tedious clichés would disgrace a Junior Common Room at Cambridge.
    Socialism?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reading PB these days convinces me more than ever that there are countless apartheids in British society between people who have almost nothing in common with each other.

    It took the PB comments section to prove that?

    On this bizarre debate that has broken out, even if one quibbles over the phrase 'world war' or something like 'Islam vs the West', the conflicts and dangers from the hardline extremists doe feel like it is rising, not diminishing, which seems like it has the chance to expand further as a result. That might not happen, but it has to be a possibility given recent years.
    Yeah but it's got cock all to do with racial politics in the UK. Or the failure, as the Enochs have learned to politely put it, of "multiculturalism ".
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
    I take it you think it is then.
    Multiculturism is fine. We do not have problems with Sikhs, Hindus, Bhuddistsor African Pentacostals or Brazillian gays beheading people and suicide bombing.

    The problem is that political Islam rejects multiculturism, as shown by Hamas and ISIS.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: ISIS have killed 700 tribesmen this week so far.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
    I take it you think it is then.
    Multiculturism is fine. We do not have problems with Sikhs, Hindus, Bhuddistsor African Pentacostals or Brazillian gays beheading people and suicide bombing.

    The problem is that political Islam rejects multiculturism, as shown by Hamas and ISIS.

    So what do you suggest we do about that?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Smarmeron said:

    @Hugh
    We were discussing ISIS and the middle east in general.
    Mo is with Sean and thinks we should nuke them, Ali just wishes they would all just stop.
    I fear neither of them have the qualifications necessary for violent Jihad

    I went for a curry the other night. The bloke who served me was An Islam (I think he was, he had one them things on his head?).

    Anyway he said he thought we should Nuke Baghdad to get it all over and done with, stop them coming here and bombing our jobs.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Reading PB these days convinces me more than ever that there are countless apartheids in British society between people who have almost nothing in common with each other.

    It took the PB comments section to prove that?

    On this bizarre debate that has broken out, even if one quibbles over the phrase 'world war' or something like 'Islam vs the West', the conflicts and dangers from the hardline extremists doe feel like it is rising, not diminishing, which seems like it has the chance to expand further as a result. That might not happen, but it has to be a possibility given recent years.
    Yeah but it's got cock all to do with racial politics in the UK. Or the failure, as the Enochs have learned to politely put it, of "multiculturalism ".
    How would you know that as a member of the Billy Bragg society (A person who talks a good game on immigration/multiculturalism but lives as far away as possible from it)

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited August 2014
    @Life_ina_market_town
    Their has always been a certain amount of "individualism" in a society.
    Our modern way of though, life precludes the old "social fabric" and leaves us creating a substitute community.
    ( your parent being put in a nursing home would not have been possible or remotely ethical at one time)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IOS said:

    But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority!

    Really?

    Citation needed.

    You've made this claim several times. Each time I've seen you make it I've asked for a link.

    So, here goes again: please provide a link to back this up.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    IOS said:

    But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority!

    Really?

    Citation needed.

    You've made this claim several times. Each time I've seen you make it I've asked for a link.

    So, here goes again: please provide a link to back this up.
    Fisher admits it's an experiment.

    Is his stuff really all you have left in your Bunker? You really do think Brown and Blair are the masters don't you!
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited August 2014
    SeanT said:

    Y0kel said:

    There will not be a sustained conflict on UK soil based on what we know:

    1. The actual hard core of willing to go out and shoot, bomb and knife people is proportionally very small and lacking central organisation.

    2. The sympathiser network is undoubtedly large enough to support a sustained terror campaign but its quite diverse and disorganised and also lacks 'active' sympathisers providing logistics, locations, money.

    3. The current approach used by Islamic radicals in home grown attacks results in self-managing terror capability, because those who are game to go out do it once, kill themselves or get lifted.

    The only way to bring a country to its knees by terror is to sustain it, week in, week out and to do that you need your better, willing operatives to stay alive to start with.

    Curiously, ISIS military approach is different in that regard than their globalist ex-mates in Al Qaeda. They do do the odd suicide bomber alright but they also like to live. Whether that somewhat obvious point rubs off on those suitably inspired by ISIS is anyones guess. ISIS does, however, offer the possibility of keeping its imported members in because its interest is actually making a state, Al Qaeda tendency is to make statements.





    Unless they get hold of chemical weapons, nukes, dirty bombs or weaponised Ebola. And this is presuming ISIS are a normal army with normal soldiers who aren't incoming sociopathic weirdos, brutalised by exceptional cruelty, who will ignore any orders and go home to kill their infidel British ex-neighbours, who laughed at them in the past.

    Ah, yes. You see the problem. Isis is where columbine meets al-qeada-in-Iraq, times Twitter, with nukes. Not good.
    It doesn't presume any of this, in fact it presumes ISIS inspired individuals turning up in the UK are more of a potential problem not less because of the practicality behind the philosophy. ISIS fundamentally have a winners mentality, a power mentality.

    Just as a note there are stories that they got hold of some interesting gear when they over ran two large Iraqi army facilities, one of which is in Mosul the other in Muthanna.


    US apparently attempted rescue of US hostages in Syria. We assume this is the White House response to the allegation that they knew all about the ISIS threat over two journos in the last week.
  • US secret military mission tried to free James Foley and other hostages in Syria this summer, but failed - Pentagon

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28875827
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST



    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
    I take it you think it is then.
    Multiculturism is fine. We do not have problems with Sikhs, Hindus, Bhuddistsor African Pentacostals or Brazillian gays beheading people and suicide bombing.

    The problem is that political Islam rejects multiculturism, as shown by Hamas and ISIS.

    So what do you suggest we do about that?
    The other groups are our allies against political Islam, do not make the same error as ISIS.

    Freedom and respect for others is the answer, not the problem.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    US secret military mission tried to free James Foley and other hostages in Syria this summer, but failed - Pentagon

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28875827

    http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/james-foley-us-military-launched-secret-rescue-operation/story?id=25060796
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Islamic State militants seize four more foreign hostages in Syria" - 2 Italians, a Dane and a Japanese:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/20/islamic-state-isis-foreign-hostages-syria-aleppo
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    Bit harsh to judge Fisher on the basis of his first prediction. Maybe he improved the model shortly afterwards.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What does DK stand for in the pie chart? Don't Kare?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: ISIS have killed 700 tribesmen this week so far.

    Isnt that in Syria not Iraq?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    My dear children. I know you are confused about this swingback theory, arguing about whether a swing to the Conservatives is inevitable, or impossible, about whether Steve Fisher is an idiot or a genius.

    It really isn't very complicated. There is one, and only one, point you need to understand.

    It is this: Opinion polling nine months out from a General Election is a poor predictor of the final result.

    Learn this lesson well, most especially if you bet on politics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    isam said:

    What does DK stand for in the pie chart? Don't Kare?

    Don't Now. ;-)
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    isam said:

    What does DK stand for in the pie chart? Don't Kare?

    Damn Kashmiris
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    My dear children. I know you are confused about this swingback theory, arguing about whether a swing to the Conservatives is inevitable, or impossible, about whether Steve Fisher is an idiot or a genius.

    It really isn't very complicated. There is one, and only one, point you need to understand.

    It is this: Opinion polling nine months out from a General Election is a poor predictor of the final result.

    Learn this lesson well, most especially if you bet on politics.

    It was "mid term" polls a while ago. How long do you go on dismissing polls in your Bunker?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST



    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    There is no coming world war. There is no 'Islam' planning anything. Am I right in thinking you profess to be literate?
    'cos that whole multiculturalism thing is going swimmingly, right?
    Congratulations on winning first prize in the summarise Breivik contest!
    I take it you think it is then.
    Multiculturism is fine. We do not have problems with Sikhs, Hindus, Bhuddistsor African Pentacostals or Brazillian gays beheading people and suicide bombing.

    The problem is that political Islam rejects multiculturism, as shown by Hamas and ISIS.

    So what do you suggest we do about that?
    The other groups are our allies against political Islam, do not make the same error as ISIS.

    Freedom and respect for others is the answer, not the problem.

    For the political Islam you mentioned?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Y0kel said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: ISIS have killed 700 tribesmen this week so far.

    Isnt that in Syria not Iraq?
    Yes it is. Don't know whether the count would be even higher in Iraq.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Hugh
    I would agree with Richard, a lot can happen in politics, and polls are mainly to give us something to argue about.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited August 2014
    Hugh said:

    My dear children. I know you are confused about this swingback theory, arguing about whether a swing to the Conservatives is inevitable, or impossible, about whether Steve Fisher is an idiot or a genius.

    It really isn't very complicated. There is one, and only one, point you need to understand.

    It is this: Opinion polling nine months out from a General Election is a poor predictor of the final result.

    Learn this lesson well, most especially if you bet on politics.

    It was "mid term" polls a while ago. How long do you go on dismissing polls in your Bunker?
    The polls gradually become a good predictor of the final result. I shall be using them for betting prediction purposes to tune my optimal betting position from around February. Before that I shall obviously looking for systematic shifts (after the Conference season). Currently I'm all green for any outcome, but optimised for hung parliament, Con most seats. I'll tune that as we get closer.

    The most important number to watch on polling at the moment is the confidence level on Steve Fisher's Conservative vote share model. Note well: not the central forecast, but the error bars. The current error is +/- 7.4% (95% confidence).

    Or, in plain English, the current polls tell you very little.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    This seems like a no-win situation for the US. They'll look weak and impotent if they don't take action against ISIS but if they do Muslims around the world will be angered by what they will see as American aggression and imperialism.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Meanwhile, back in Ferguson -

    all the news channels are reporting - unconfirmed I stress - that Officer Darren Wilson was very badly beaten by Michael Brown. He was apparently taken to hospital and has a fractured eye socket.

    IF this is true it's a game changer.

    The fact that all outlets are reporting it does tend to make it feasible.

    The way info comes out like this in dribs and drabs and disjointedly - hardly surprising they're rioting in the streets. It's terrible PR.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 2014
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Islamic State militants seize four more foreign hostages in Syria" - 2 Italians, a Dane and a Japanese:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/20/islamic-state-isis-foreign-hostages-syria-aleppo

    I fear that if you are now captured by ISIS you have to accept you are as good as dead. Ain't no one coming for you. The sooner ISIS realise that butchering westerners/foreigners on liveleak ensures nothing but more loathing for their creed, the better. And if all they want is global hatred and contempt and ultimate destruction then let us afford them the pleasure.
    I don't think it is as simple as that. As the article mentions ISIS do this for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it is for the cash, sometimes for the propaganda.

    Let remember, although many of their acts are barbaric, but they have built up a lot of money from robbing banks, hostages for ranson, stealing oil, etc.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    This seems like a no-win situation for the US. They'll look weak and impotent if they don't take action against ISIS but if they do Muslims around the world will be angered by what they will see as American aggression and imperialism.

    They already see American aggression and imperialism.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Islamic State militants seize four more foreign hostages in Syria" - 2 Italians, a Dane and a Japanese:

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/20/islamic-state-isis-foreign-hostages-syria-aleppo

    I fear that if you are now captured by ISIS you have to accept you are as good as dead. Ain't no one coming for you. The sooner ISIS realise that butchering westerners/foreigners on liveleak ensures nothing but more loathing for their creed, the better. And if all they want is global hatred and contempt and ultimate destruction then let us afford them the pleasure.
    This has been cleared by their marketing department. Its asymmetric PR, call it what you will.

    I'm curious about this claim that the US sought to rescue James Foley. How far did that attempt go, did anyone actually take off on an operation to do it?

    One thing that looks very likely. US airpower will be used in Syria.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 2014
    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, back in Ferguson -

    all the news channels are reporting - unconfirmed I stress - that Officer Darren Wilson was very badly beaten by Michael Brown. He was apparently taken to hospital and has a fractured eye socket.

    IF this is true it's a game changer.

    The fact that all outlets are reporting it does tend to make it feasible.

    The way info comes out like this in dribs and drabs and disjointedly - hardly surprising they're rioting in the streets. It's terrible PR.

    If this is true, why the hell didn't the police release photo's of the police officer badly beaten face*? That would have stopped most of this in it tracks from the beginning.

    * They could have still hidden his identify while doing this if required.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SeanT
    Armageddon at last?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IMO the Syrian government is to blame for the rise of ISIS more than anyone else. For example they shut down the so-called "Damascus Spring" which lasted from 2000 to 2001 thus blocking the development of peaceful opposition.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damascus_Spring
  • AndyJS said:

    IMO the Syrian government is to blame for the rise of ISIS more than anyone else. For example they shut down the so-called "Damascus Spring" which lasted from 2000 to 2001 thus blocking the development of peaceful opposition.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damascus_Spring

    That's like blaming Israel for the rise of Hamas!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited August 2014

    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, back in Ferguson -

    all the news channels are reporting - unconfirmed I stress - that Officer Darren Wilson was very badly beaten by Michael Brown. He was apparently taken to hospital and has a fractured eye socket.

    IF this is true it's a game changer.

    The fact that all outlets are reporting it does tend to make it feasible.

    The way info comes out like this in dribs and drabs and disjointedly - hardly surprising they're rioting in the streets. It's terrible PR.

    If this is true, why the hell didn't the police release photo's of the police officer badly beaten face*? That would have stopped most of this in it tracks from the beginning.

    * They could have still hidden his identify while doing this if required.
    We're still waiting for 2 of 3 autopsy results on Brown. There's no medical info released on Wilson either. It's just incompetence.

    To make it worse, the governor of the state came on TV and in scripted remarks said that Wilson must be prosecuted and we need justice for the Brown family. No mention of justice for the officer.

    To make things even worse, Eric Holder is in town, no doubt to help up the racist content of the case.

    Even worse the prosecutor's father was a cop shot dead by a black man.

    Following the beheading of an American, Cameron cuts his vacation short. Obama steps on a hastily erected platform where he's vacationing, makes a few bland remarks, then goes off to play 18 holes with a basketball player, Alonzo Mourning. Not going to give up his trip or his golf for anything
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    IMO the Syrian government is to blame for the rise of ISIS more than anyone else. For example they shut down the so-called "Damascus Spring" which lasted from 2000 to 2001 thus blocking the development of peaceful opposition.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damascus_Spring

    The Obama foreign policy bears no small share of the blame for all this. Nature's not the only thing that abhors a vacuum.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    No Nighthawks tonight?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And so the answer to who exactly captured dead journalist James Foley in the first place becomes no more clear but it appears that connections to Foley were aware that it was no longer the case that he was in Assad forces hands (if he ever was) back in late 2013.

    Isn't it odd that a publicity seeking outfit like ISIS didn't make play of having fought US troops that came to attack it on Syrian soil a mere few weeks back? Those guys like announcing that kind of thing.
  • Maurice Glasman back with more helpful suggestions for Ed

    Labour doesn't value family life says Ed's ex-aide

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2730349/Labour-doesn-t-value-family-life-says-Ed-s-ex-aide-Party-support-couples-stay-together.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    2 of the 6 are almost household names: Jean Charles de Menezes, and Mark Duggan.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited August 2014
    Y0kel said:

    And so the answer to who exactly captured dead journalist James Foley in the first place becomes no more clear but it appears that connections to Foley were aware that it was no longer the case that he was in Assad forces hands (if he ever was) back in late 2013.

    Isn't it odd that a publicity seeking outfit like ISIS didn't make play of having fought US troops that came to attack it on Syrian soil a mere few weeks back? Those guys like announcing that kind of thing.

    News networks here are saying that he was originally captured by the Free Syrian Army then handed over later
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited August 2014
    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    I'd be interested to see both the per capita rate, and the per gun-owning-capita rate.

    Edit: I'm an idiot, the numbers you have given are basically the per-capita rate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    I'd be interested to see both the per capita rate, and the per gun-owning-capita rate.

    Edit: I'm an idiot, the numbers you have given are basically the per-capita rate.
    It wouldn't surprise me if 6 people have been shot dead by police in Chicago in a single day at some stage in the last 13 years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    I'd be interested to see both the per capita rate, and the per gun-owning-capita rate.

    Edit: I'm an idiot, the numbers you have given are basically the per-capita rate.
    It wouldn't surprise me if 6 people have been shot dead by police in Chicago in a single day at some stage in the last 13 years.
    I'm going to Chicago a little later this year, that doesn't fill me with confidence!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another Wiki page gives the number as 11 rather than 6. No cases since March 2012:

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_killed_by_law_enforcement_officers_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    According to that list police in Britain have fatally shot 19 people since 1922.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited August 2014
    Tim_B said:

    Y0kel said:

    And so the answer to who exactly captured dead journalist James Foley in the first place becomes no more clear but it appears that connections to Foley were aware that it was no longer the case that he was in Assad forces hands (if he ever was) back in late 2013.

    Isn't it odd that a publicity seeking outfit like ISIS didn't make play of having fought US troops that came to attack it on Syrian soil a mere few weeks back? Those guys like announcing that kind of thing.

    News networks here are saying that he was originally captured by the Free Syrian Army then handed over later
    One confusing episode. For about a year the family were under the distinct impression it was Assad's forces. Today I've heard the Nusra front might have had him at one time, an Al Qaeda-ish offshoot on the insurgent side. Whether they are considered synonymous with the FSA over there I do not know.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    I'd be interested to see both the per capita rate, and the per gun-owning-capita rate.

    Edit: I'm an idiot, the numbers you have given are basically the per-capita rate.
    It wouldn't surprise me if 6 people have been shot dead by police in Chicago in a single day at some stage in the last 13 years.
    You cannot really compare US and UK police. They are not even remotely similar. US police are highly militarized. Even on a traffic stop if you even slightly argue or show resistance some cops will either arrest and cuff you immediately or call for backup.
  • Assad is fighting against ISIL in Syria.

    The PKK (Kurd terrorists fighting for Turkish Kurdistan) is fighting against ISIL in Iraq.

    If my enemy's enemy is my friend then the US and the UK are friends with Assad and terrorist PKK.


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently Ferguson is 67% black and has a white mayor and 5 out of 6 councillors are white.

    There must be a very low voter turnout and registration of black voters for that to be so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 2014
    Great shots of Obama taking the crisis, what crisis? seriously..nubs....imagine if Bush had done this. Now watch this drive.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2730122/The-entire-world-appalled-We-relentless-Obama-vows-punish-ISIS-beheading-American-journalist-James-Foley-said-stood-stark-contrast-cowardly-killers.html

    Sure the family of the beheaded journalist wouldn't want their sons gruesome death to stand in the way of a good golf trip. I mean leader of the free world and all that, not like he has any responsibilities.
  • AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ferguson is 67% black and has a white mayor and 5 out of 6 councillors are white.

    There must be a very low voter turnout and registration of black voters for that to be so.

    In the 1970s Ferguson was mostly white. Since then black people have arrived from LA.

    The white people occupied positions like being union leaders, who ensure benefits for their members who are now mostly black. So it is in the interests of the balck workers to continue to vote into Council their union leaders and white associates.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    IOS said:

    I am fairly sure that Rod's model had the Tories regularly posting leads by now. Just as inaccurate as that Fisher projection. He was so far off with the council election results I am surprised anyone takes it seriously.

    The Tories are "regularly posting leads", and have done since May, as I predicted in September 2013...

    Labour still has the upper hand though. I predicted the Tories would not gain the upper hand until January 2015.

    We shall see...

    [I don't understand the reference to council results btw]
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Great shots of Obama taking the crisis, what crisis? seriously..nubs....imagine if Bush had done this. Now watch this drive.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2730122/The-entire-world-appalled-We-relentless-Obama-vows-punish-ISIS-beheading-American-journalist-James-Foley-said-stood-stark-contrast-cowardly-killers.html

    Sure the family of the beheaded journalist wouldn't want their sons gruesome death to stand in the way of a good golf trip. I mean leader of the free world and all that, not like he has any responsibilities.

    I listened in vain for "we will get you" or "you can run but you can't hide". Just usual Obama platitudes.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    "The biggest problem for for blues, I contend, is that too many people don’t see it as the party “for people like us” – which is the negative perception which it always gets the worse numbers."

    And yet Cameron and Osborne are now consistently out polling Miliband and Balls on Leadership and on the economy in the polls? If Thatchers term in Office taught us one thing about the UK electorate, you don't have to like or always agree with someone on all issues to respect them as a PM/Leader. In this current febrile polling age, we forget just how many working class folk have voted Tory over the years and why, and it was never about them being the party "for people like us". It was always about the more competent way they ran the economy and the financial stability it brought to ordinary working families.

    Biggest consideration at the next GE for most voters, who is best able to keep the UK economy growing with the added security and stability that brings for high employment and low interest rates. Do we go for the competent 'Bullingdon lads' who have delivered, or do we risk it all because those son's of socialism Ed Miliband and Ed Balls contrived to pretend they are more like us?

    Anecdote from a non Tory voter I was chatting to earlier today up here in Scotland, he is in fact one of the now rare lesser spotted Scottish Libdem voters. And his view of Cameron, 'I like him, his heart is in the right place when it comes to trying to do the best by us, he just hasn't always been well advised on some of the issues effecting us'. PS, he is a voter in Danny Alexander's constituency, and he has also been totally turned off by the SNP/Yes campaign in that patch.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    PClipp said:

    What strikes me about the graph is that 25% of UKIP voters would prefer the next government to have the LIb Dems as part of it.

    Does that mean that many UKIP inclined voters in Lib Dem marginal seats might be up for grabs?

    A forced choice when people are hostile to all the choices doesn't tell you anything. If i was polled with that I wouldn't want to put "don't know" because i definitely know i wouldn't vote for any of them so i'd probably put labour even though there's 0% chance of it happening simply for reasons of past voting. Stick a "none" option in the list and see what the numbers are then.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Y0kel said:

    There will not be a sustained conflict on UK soil based on what we know:

    1. The actual hard core of willing to go out and shoot, bomb and knife people is proportionally very small and lacking central organisation.

    2. The sympathiser network is undoubtedly large enough to support a sustained terror campaign but its quite diverse and disorganised and also lacks 'active' sympathisers providing logistics, locations, money.

    3. The current approach used by Islamic radicals in home grown attacks results in self-managing terror capability, because those who are game to go out do it once, kill themselves or get lifted.

    The only way to bring a country to its knees by terror is to sustain it, week in, week out and to do that you need your better, willing operatives to stay alive to start with.

    Curiously, ISIS military approach is different in that regard than their globalist ex-mates in Al Qaeda. They do do the odd suicide bomber alright but they also like to live. Whether that somewhat obvious point rubs off on those suitably inspired by ISIS is anyones guess. ISIS does, however, offer the possibility of keeping its imported members in because its interest is actually making a state, Al Qaeda tendency is to make statements.

    "There will not be a sustained conflict on UK soil based on what we know:"

    Not before France at least.

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    BETTING POST

    I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.

    And I wish I was joking.

    It isn't just "The West".

    Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
    This is one reason I think Islam is going to lose the coming world war, if it should happen (inshallah, it will not). They have made enemies of the two richest superpowers, the US and China, and the two coming superpowers, India and the EU (however spineless the latter)

    In the end they are loathed by the powers-that-be, and the powers-that-will-be, plus the majority of Mongol horsemen sorry Muslims who are "peace loving", law abiding, blah blah blah
    The trouble with that is there's more than one world war.

    There's already the early days of the BRICS vs dollar world conflict brewing and the ongoing regional petrodollar war where countries like Libya, Iraq, Syria and Iran want (or wanted) to break away from the petrodollar and the US allied with the Gulf States has been bombing them back into line then there's China vs India

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Chinese-troops-enter-25km-deep-into-Indian-territory-Sources/articleshow/40375103.cms

    and China vs Japan, the ongoing neocon attempt to destabilize Russia (partly due to the previously mentioned dollar and petrodollar conflicts but also partly simply because of the Wolfowitz doctrine), regional conflicts all over the place brought on by the bankstas screwing up the global economy (and the consequences of the US exporting inflation via the dollar) etc etc etc etc etc etc

    The point of all that is in all these interwoven conflicts i think the various sides are likely to end up funding the jihadists attacking the other side in exactly the same way the Gulf States funded al Nusra and Isis to attack Assad not expecting them to come back into Iraq or the US training thousands of fighters in Jordan originally to attack Syria as part of the FSA but most of them probably now fighting with Isis plus all the weapons the US gave to the Iraqis which are now being used by Isis etc.

    So you could have India funding jihadists in China and China funding jihadists in India and US funding jihadists in Chechnya (which they've been doing for years) and Russia funding jihadists in the US etc so i don't think there'll be a united front - on the surface maybe but under the table i think they'll all be funding their enemy's jihadists like a global version of the US funding the mujahideen to fight the Sovs in Afghanistan.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452

    Assad is fighting against ISIL in Syria.

    The PKK (Kurd terrorists fighting for Turkish Kurdistan) is fighting against ISIL in Iraq.

    If my enemy's enemy is my friend then the US and the UK are friends with Assad and terrorist PKK.

    You have to factor in other players as well, such as the Syrian PYD, an 'official' offshoot of the PKK that does their business in Syria:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Union_Party_(Syria)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,703
    To those who think that being regarded as a “Good Leader” is an automatic gateway to becoming (or staying) PM I would say; Remember Churchill in 1945!"
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    According to Wikipedia, police in the UK have shot dead 6 people so far in the 21st century. That would be the equivalent of about 30 people in the United States.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_use_of_firearms_in_the_United_Kingdom

    I'd be interested to see both the per capita rate, and the per gun-owning-capita rate.

    Edit: I'm an idiot, the numbers you have given are basically the per-capita rate.
    It wouldn't surprise me if 6 people have been shot dead by police in Chicago in a single day at some stage in the last 13 years.
    You cannot really compare US and UK police. They are not even remotely similar. US police are highly militarized. Even on a traffic stop if you even slightly argue or show resistance some cops will either arrest and cuff you immediately or call for backup.
    Interesting quote on R4 morning news the other day, I can't remember exactly, so I apologise if I paraphrase : "Last year in Germany, 84 bullets were fired by the police. In New York, a young black man was shot 85 times"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Back in the real world (the one not occupied by MrJones), UKIP has announced their tax plans.

    They seem to be a little bit of the Liberal Democrats (raise the threshold for paying taxes), and a little bit of the Conservatives (end the 45% tax rate).

    Nothing very much to object to: the very ordinariness of the proposals indicates the extent to which UKIP is becoming a grown up political party. That being said, I preferred UKIP's more gutsy 2010 proposals, but I guess I'm in a minority of one.

    I would note that - from what we know - these proposals would certainly increase the deficit, which (at 5.3% of GDPin 2014) is only beaten by Spain and Japan in the OECD. Hopefully, we'll see more on spending plans in the next 24 hours.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    rcs1000 said:

    Back in the real world (the one not occupied by MrJones), UKIP has announced their tax plans.

    They seem to be a little bit of the Liberal Democrats (raise the threshold for paying taxes), and a little bit of the Conservatives (end the 45% tax rate).

    Nothing very much to object to: the very ordinariness of the proposals indicates the extent to which UKIP is becoming a grown up political party. That being said, I preferred UKIP's more gutsy 2010 proposals, but I guess I'm in a minority of one.

    I would note that - from what we know - these proposals would certainly increase the deficit, which (at 5.3% of GDPin 2014) is only beaten by Spain and Japan in the OECD. Hopefully, we'll see more on spending plans in the next 24 hours.

    UKIP want people on minimum wage to be tax free, but do not deal with minimum wage escalation. The 40% top tax rate would start at 45k.

    Also they want immigrants to have paid 5 years of Tax and NI before being eligible for any benefits.

    UKIP outlined plans to ensure people who have worked for a long time before becoming unemployed would be entitled to a higher job seeker's allowance.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28876122
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Good News for Russian Waistlines

    Russia's main consumer watchdog has temporarily shut four McDonald's restaurants in Moscow as part of an investigation into food standards.

    Watchdog Rospotrebnadzor claimed the restaurants had breached "numerous" sanitary laws.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28867784
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited August 2014
    The poor gays, they get blamed for everything, from the floods to national debts.

    Spanish senator blame €1 trillion national debt on homosexuals

    Luz Elena Sanín, a senator from Spain's ruling conservative party, blames Spain's national debt on "subsidies offered to homosexuals"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/11046412/Spanish-senator-blame-1-trillion-national-debt-on-homosexuals.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    The poor gays, they get blamed for everything, from the floods to national debts.

    Spanish senator blame €1 trillion national debt on homosexuals

    Luz Elena Sanín, a senator from Spain's ruling conservative party, blames Spain's national debt on "subsidies offered to homosexuals"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/11046412/Spanish-senator-blame-1-trillion-national-debt-on-homosexuals.html

    Some people are idiots. The same applies to senators.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited August 2014
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm confused and what to learn more (as one schoolboy said to another): what homosexual subsidies are available in Spain? Why do they need subsidies? How many gay men and women are there in Spain and how much are they getting for the nation to accrue debt of around £1,000,000,000,000?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rennard latest

    www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/20/call-bar-lord-chris-rennard-liberal-democrats-house-lords-nick-clegg
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, I'm confused and what to learn more (as one schoolboy said to another): what homosexual subsidies are available in Spain? Why do they need subsidies? How many gay men and women are there in Spain and how much are they getting for the nation to accrue debt of around £1,000,000,000,000?

    Well there is the power of the pink pound, so I wonder if there is the power of the Pink Euro as well

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/142998.stm
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: the great Murray Walker ruminates about the Hamilton/Rosberg title fight, and who might win it:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28864982
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited August 2014
    Sir,

    Has anyone else noticed that Owen Jones and Geoffrey from Rainbow appear to be one and the same? I shall resist the temptation to compare the rather sad individual spouting childish nonsense, surrounded by muppet-like creations, and a fondly remembered children’s television presenter.

    Yours,

    BOB SPEARING

    http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=lookalikes&issue=1372
  • Did someone mention Rainbow?

    Which gives me an excuse to post this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgbcQIT7BMc
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Entertaining snipe from Angela Eagle on Lord Rennard: "He must be the only person in the whole country who would take legal action in order to become a Liberal Democrat."

    AE is obviously hostile, but I think the LibDems really are moving from having a transitional problem to seriously alienating regular supporters. I'm now meeting lots of ex-LibDems beyond the longstanding Red Liberals who are peeling off: the new ones generally say they're not sure how they'll vote but they definitely won't vote LibDem. My guess is that this group will split four ways: Lab/Con/UKIP/abstain. Unlike the Red Liberals they're not much tempted by the Greens.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Tim_B said:

    Meanwhile, back in Ferguson -

    all the news channels are reporting - unconfirmed I stress - that Officer Darren Wilson was very badly beaten by Michael Brown. He was apparently taken to hospital and has a fractured eye socket.

    IF this is true it's a game changer.

    The fact that all outlets are reporting it does tend to make it feasible.

    The way info comes out like this in dribs and drabs and disjointedly - hardly surprising they're rioting in the streets. It's terrible PR.

    Will it make any difference to those media who want to portray Ferguson as Birmingham or Selma
    c. 1963?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,703

    Entertaining snipe from Angela Eagle on Lord Rennard: "He must be the only person in the whole country who would take legal action in order to become a Liberal Democrat."

    AE is obviously hostile, but I think the LibDems really are moving from having a transitional problem to seriously alienating regular supporters. I'm now meeting lots of ex-LibDems beyond the longstanding Red Liberals who are peeling off: the new ones generally say they're not sure how they'll vote but they definitely won't vote LibDem. My guess is that this group will split four ways: Lab/Con/UKIP/abstain. Unlike the Red Liberals they're not much tempted by the Greens.

    I don’t think there’s much doubt that Nick Clegg is seriously damaging the LibDems. He’s seen to have shilly-shallied over both Rennard and Hancock which, as NP reports, has angered long term supporters. Why on earth didn’t he just bite the bullet and tell them both to sort themselves out? Outside the Party!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Entertaining snipe from Angela Eagle on Lord Rennard: "He must be the only person in the whole country who would take legal action in order to become a Liberal Democrat."

    AE is obviously hostile, but I think the LibDems really are moving from having a transitional problem to seriously alienating regular supporters. I'm now meeting lots of ex-LibDems beyond the longstanding Red Liberals who are peeling off: the new ones generally say they're not sure how they'll vote but they definitely won't vote LibDem. My guess is that this group will split four ways: Lab/Con/UKIP/abstain. Unlike the Red Liberals they're not much tempted by the Greens.

    The LD's struggle to retain 30% of their 2010 VI (down 5% this year), really illustrates the fact that, except their diehard loyalists, people are finding it very hard to find a reason to vote LD.

    If Rennard attends the LD autumn conference, then that could dominate the news and further depress their VI. Best for him to go on a long holiday (or on retreat) and to disappear for the next 10 months.
This discussion has been closed.