I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion. What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.
You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?
I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.
Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.
We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.
OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)
1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.
2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.
Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.
The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.
There's also the small matter of what's happening in the country. People feel Cameron and the Tories have shafted them a bit, they're not feeling this so called "economic recovery" but the Cameron and Osbornes mates are.
"Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.
Of course according to Labour there was never going to be a recovery in the first place, LOL!
And the argument is still that you shouldn't let the folks who crashed the car back in the driving seat...
Just one note regarding the death of journalist James Foley at the hands of ISIS.
Since his disappearance some time ago the assumption, pretty much unchallenged, was that he was in the hands of Assad's forces, with focus upon Air Force Intelligence, one of Bashar's most trusted outfits.
So how did he end up with ISIS? Was he always in their or other insurgent hands, was he captured from Assad forces custody or was he mysteriously handed over?
He isn't the only journalist assumed held by Assad's forces.
Lets see what the intelligence community assessment is or will they say nothing?
If you are into sci-fi video games I can't recommend Mass Effect enough, a great plot..
Absolutely. I was a Dragon Age addict - Mass Effect was good too, though a bit combat-heavy for my taste. I ran out of time to finish playing. Get Anna Soubry to beat me and I might be able to get back to it and we'd all be happy. Sort of.
Whilst walking through Cambridge earlier, a poster outside St John's College attracted my attention. It said, in large letters:
"Jeffrey Archer The Best Looking Man in England"
Only when I got closer did I see a small line of test in between: "Talks about George Mallory and Rupert Brooke"
Like him or loathe him, he knows how to get your attention.
As an aside, at the bottom it said: "Jeffrey has served five years in the House of Commons and twenty-two years as a member of the House of Lords." I am really, really surprised it did not include: "a month in Belmarsh".
If you are into sci-fi video games I can't recommend Mass Effect enough, a great plot..
Absolutely. I was a Dragon Age addict - Mass Effect was good too, though a bit combat-heavy for my taste. I ran out of time to finish playing. Get Anna Soubry to beat me and I might be able to get back to it and we'd all be happy. Sort of.
Good Evening. I still think that Morrowind and Oblivion were great RPG's and hard to beat.
If you are into sci-fi video games I can't recommend Mass Effect enough, a great plot..
Absolutely. I was a Dragon Age addict - Mass Effect was good too, though a bit combat-heavy for my taste. I ran out of time to finish playing. Get Anna Soubry to beat me and I might be able to get back to it and we'd all be happy. Sort of.
Okay, well if you ever get back to it make sure you buy the citadel expansion for the last game! It's such a good game, but it takes a loooong time, the second and third have far more things to do besides the main story.
As an aside, at the bottom it said: "Jeffrey has served five years in the House of Commons and twenty-two years as a member of the House of Lords." I am really, really surprised it did not include: "a month in Belmarsh".
Well he has written books on the subject, so I don't think he is especially shy about it!
Evening all. Invoking the spirit of young Cameron, I trust all you video game players are taking a short break after each hour of play. I'm surprised they don't pass a law about it.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Metro front page - "British Muslims join MI5 in hunt for executioners" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/Sy3v5UB3XF
I was thinking this today,this is one way we can infiltrate these murderous ba$tards organization.
Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.
Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.
Can you identify a single tory here who is convinced it will be "alright (that's how it is usual to spell it) on the night?" Thought not. The groupthink is yours: you believe what compouter tells you about the pb tories.
This strikes me as the most wide-open election since at least 1979, which is what makes it interesting. If you disagree, and have nothing to offer beyond frankly moronic "nyah-nyah-nyahnyahnyah you are going to lose" posts, why not save them up for a great big fat "I told you so" post after the election, and hold fire in the meantime?
Here's a sequence of numbers for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3. I don't know if they worry you, but I bet they worry ed miliband. Perhaps you have even more intellectual self-confidence than he does.
Aw bless.
Never mind, pump your numbers into the Swingback supercomputer see what happens. And don't forget Rupert is gonna "Kinnock" Ed to help his mate Dave, that'll save you!
It was Kinnock who Kinnocked Kinnock. There is no "crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media"; Swingback was a theory briefly espoused and now I think rejected by a single poster on here, and it was about movements in the last year before the General Election. Your theory that it is espoused by the mainstream media is exactly as valid and well-researched as your theory that the NHS has world-beating infant mortality statistics - you say it because it pops into your head, and for all you know it might be true. The trend in the figures above has run for twenty months. It doesn't need feeding into a computer to interpret. It may continue, plateau or reverse. The fact that you are incapable of understanding or discussing more than one of those three possibilities makes your posts a tiny bit monotonous.
Lol time to put the wine down mate!
I don't drink, I donate my spare cash to medical aid for all those poor little first world babies dying of lack of socialism on non-NHS labour wards.
Evening all. Invoking the spirit of young Cameron, I trust all you video game players are taking a short break after each hour of play. I'm surprised they don't pass a law about it.
Yep, I save all mine up and use them up at bed time!
Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.
Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.
Can you identify a single tory here who is convinced it will be "alright (that's how it is usual to spell it) on the night?" Thought not. The groupthink is yours: you believe what compouter tells you about the pb tories.
This strikes me as the most wide-open election since at least 1979, which is what makes it interesting. If you disagree, and have nothing to offer beyond frankly moronic "nyah-nyah-nyahnyahnyah you are going to lose" posts, why not save them up for a great big fat "I told you so" post after the election, and hold fire in the meantime?
Here's a sequence of numbers for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3. I don't know if they worry you, but I bet they worry ed miliband. Perhaps you have even more intellectual self-confidence than he does.
Aw bless.
Never mind, pump your numbers into the Swingback supercomputer see what happens. And don't forget Rupert is gonna "Kinnock" Ed to help his mate Dave, that'll save you!
It was Kinnock who Kinnocked Kinnock. There is no "crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media"; Swingback was a theory briefly espoused and now I think rejected by a single poster on here, and it was about movements in the last year before the General Election. Your theory that it is espoused by the mainstream media is exactly as valid and well-researched as your theory that the NHS has world-beating infant mortality statistics - you say it because it pops into your head, and for all you know it might be true. The trend in the figures above has run for twenty months. It doesn't need feeding into a computer to interpret. It may continue, plateau or reverse. The fact that you are incapable of understanding or discussing more than one of those three possibilities makes your posts a tiny bit monotonous.
Well if swingback is about movements in final 12 months the first 4 have shown a zero swingback so better hope it speeds up.
I am fairly sure that Rod's model had the Tories regularly posting leads by now. Just as inaccurate as that Fisher projection. He was so far off with the council election results I am surprised anyone takes it seriously.
Well you can't criticise him for putting his prediction out there. I am keeping track of PBers (and a few others) seat predictions to see both how they evolve, and who called it right:
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Metro front page - "British Muslims join MI5 in hunt for executioners" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/Sy3v5UB3XF
I was thinking this today,this is one way we can infiltrate these murderous ba$tards organization.
They've been involved for years. The majority of Security Service human intelligence is based within the Muslim community in the UK with further feeds via international leads.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Metro front page - "British Muslims join MI5 in hunt for executioners" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/Sy3v5UB3XF
I was thinking this today,this is one way we can infiltrate these murderous ba$tards organization.
Infiltration and supergrasses are what did for the IRA, not least because the hunt for moles and informers undermines an organisation.
Didn't the marginal polling at this time in the cycle in 2009 suggest a Tory majority of about 70?
The Tories were polling that nationally at the time.
Indeed. History shows that the Tories lose ground in the final 8 months. Inevitable, innit?
That's when they was in Opposition and Labour in government though (swingback from Opposition to government)
The last time they were in government, 1997, they gained ground (OK, not enough to save them from the worst defeat since Wellington, but they did gain ground in the last year from mid-term) and I don't need to remind you of 1992, 1987, etc... I'm sure.
There are valid arguments to say that it's already over Labour has it in the bag and there are valid arguments to say that Con could claw enough back in the final months to at least win most votes and seats.
None of us really know what's going to happen next year, do we?
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.
The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.
Then you might be interested in the new version, Elite: Dangerous, by one of the co-creators of the original game. It's great fun despite being in Beta, but sadly I've not got enough free time to play it extensively. Which is annoying, as I've waited thirty years for it...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISR4ebdGlOk
I nearly called myself 'Cmdr Jameson' on PB, but decided that would be a little too sad. So I settled for a nineteenth century canal engineer instead ...
Thanks for that, Mr. J, that might well be my game to buy in 2015 nowadays I normally only allow myself one or, maybe, two games a year and play the snot of of them. Elite was such fun (once you could dock automatically) and despite lots of people trying nobody had brought it off again.
Was it widely known in early July how vile ISIL were? I don't know when the media started reporting in detail, but it feels more recent than 6 weeks ago?
That's the whole point. They've been beheading and butchering in Syria from the get go, but our media preferred to turn a blind eye and just consider them the insurgents you don't really want around for dinner.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Give them a touch of the Edward Snowden treatment!
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Daily Mirror front page - "John the executioner" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cqCtWlugIG
It sounds like the mirror might have some clues to who the murdering ba$tard is.
Didn't the marginal polling at this time in the cycle in 2009 suggest a Tory majority of about 70?
The Tories were polling that nationally at the time.
Indeed. History shows that the Tories lose ground in the final 8 months. Inevitable, innit?
That's when they was in Opposition and Labour in government though (swingback from Opposition to government)
The last time they were in government, 1997, they gained ground (OK, not enough to save them from the worst defeat since Wellington, but they did gain ground in the last year from mid-term) and I don't need to remind you of 1992, 1987, etc... I'm sure.
There are valid arguments to say that it's already over and there are valid arguments to say that Con could claw enough back in the final months to at least win most votes and seats.
None of us really know what's going to happen next year, do we?
I know - I was just teasing the Inevitable Pattern merchants.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Daily Mirror front page - "John the executioner" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cqCtWlugIG
It sounds like the mirror might have some clues to who the murdering ba$tard is.
Etm, if he was beheaded using that tiny knife, it can't have been pretty, or quick... bleugh.
Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.
The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.
Ah, a fellow-sufferer - I gave up on Elite altogether for that reason. Too many games nowadays also depend on manual dexterity. I totally sympathised with the American designer who got monstered for suggesting that games should include an optional pass-through for combat, for players who just enjoy engaging with the plot and don't want to get stuck on how to jump the crevasse or win the light sabre duel. (She got so much abuse that her company had to officially ask fans to lay off.)
Nick, I thought the the thief series was so good because the games didn't rely on combat or being teenage fast with mouse/keyboard clicks - then they brought out the latest which has sequences dependent on exactly that. The best game on the market at the moment is I think Europa Universalis IV, winning is entirely dependent on brain power and it doesn't take a super computer to run it.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Is The Foreign Enlistment Act still on The Statue Book?
Nick Sutton @suttonnick · 2 mins Thursday's Daily Mirror front page - "John the executioner" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cqCtWlugIG
It sounds like the mirror might have some clues to who the murdering ba$tard is.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Thanks.. would have spotted it eventually, guv'nor!
Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.
Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.
Can you identify a single tory here who is convinced it will be "alright (that's how it is usual to spell it) on the night?" Thought not. The groupthink is yours: you believe what compouter tells you about the pb tories.
This strikes me as the most wide-open election since at least 1979, which is what makes it interesting. If you disagree, and have nothing to offer beyond frankly moronic "nyah-nyah-nyahnyahnyah you are going to lose" posts, why not save them up for a great big fat "I told you so" post after the election, and hold fire in the meantime?
Here's a sequence of numbers for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3. I don't know if they worry you, but I bet they worry ed miliband. Perhaps you have even more intellectual self-confidence than he does.
Aw bless.
Never mind, pump your numbers into the Swingback supercomputer see what happens. And don't forget Rupert is gonna "Kinnock" Ed to help his mate Dave, that'll save you!
It was Kinnock who Kinnocked Kinnock. There is no "crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media"; Swingback was a theory briefly espoused and now I think rejected by a single poster on here, and it was about movements in the last year before the General Election. Your theory that it is espoused by the mainstream media is exactly as valid and well-researched as your theory that the NHS has world-beating infant mortality statistics - you say it because it pops into your head, and for all you know it might be true. The trend in the figures above has run for twenty months. It doesn't need feeding into a computer to interpret. It may continue, plateau or reverse. The fact that you are incapable of understanding or discussing more than one of those three possibilities makes your posts a tiny bit monotonous.
Well if swingback is about movements in final 12 months the first 4 have shown a zero swingback so better hope it speeds up.
Swingback in my view is and always has been bollocks. My point was that it isn't even relevant bollocks.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Is The Foreign Enlistment Act still on The Statue Book?
It would have to be amended, because I don't think the UK government recognises ISIS as a state.
BBC News just ran a pretty offensive report on English nationalism, portraying ordinary English people as country bumpkins. Morris Dancing of course featured prominently despite it being a not particularly popular pastime. A bit like saying everyone in Scotland wears kilts.
If you are into sci-fi video games I can't recommend Mass Effect enough, a great plot..
Absolutely. I was a Dragon Age addict - Mass Effect was good too, though a bit combat-heavy for my taste. I ran out of time to finish playing. Get Anna Soubry to beat me and I might be able to get back to it and we'd all be happy. Sort of.
Okay, well if you ever get back to it make sure you buy the citadel expansion for the last game! It's such a good game, but it takes a loooong time, the second and third have far more things to do besides the main story.
Indeed. The focus on the characters and atmosphere in the second and third ones were jaw dropping, and the DLC for them were worth every penny, much like Dragon Age I felt (just finished up my fourth complete playthrough, or possibly fifth). Cannot recommend the ME series enough.
Given current polling nationwide, I don't think Nick will find the time though. Even if he doesn't make it in, Labour are set. Not out of strength, but the Conservative position is so weak, so divided, I just cannot see the things that might tilt things in their favour being enough.
I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion. What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.
You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?
I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.
Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.
We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.
OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)
1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.
2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.
Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.
The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.
Absolutely. There's also the small matter of what's happening in the country. People feel Cameron and the Tories have shafted them a bit, they're not feeling this so called "economic recovery" but the Cameron and Osbornes mates are.
"Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Thanks.. would have spotted it eventually, guv'nor!
No problem!
I suspect this 15 day period may be heading for an anomalous result - no Ashcroft, no ICM, no MORI - so it is going to be even more heavily dominated by YouGov and Populus than normal - which is going to mean high scores for both Lab and Con.
Only 4 polls so far so no average point yet on the graph - but when the average appears both Lab and Con are going to show very sharp jumps.
Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.
The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.
Then you might be interested in the new version, Elite: Dangerous, by one of the co-creators of the original game. It's great fun despite being in Beta, but sadly I've not got enough free time to play it extensively. Which is annoying, as I've waited thirty years for it...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISR4ebdGlOk
I nearly called myself 'Cmdr Jameson' on PB, but decided that would be a little too sad. So I settled for a nineteenth century canal engineer instead ...
Thanks for that, Mr. J, that might well be my game to buy in 2015 nowadays I normally only allow myself one or, maybe, two games a year and play the snot of of them. Elite was such fun (once you could dock automatically) and despite lots of people trying nobody had brought it off again.
Back in the late 1980s/early 1990s I wrote some code to generate star systems automatically, using astronomical data and procedural generation (the now-discredited Bode's Law and variants thereof). I gave up when I ran into the limits of computing power (or at least my capability of exploiting it), even when hand-coding some critical routines in assembler. Lack of memory (only 4MB) was the killer as I had a load of NPCs trading between locations in the systems.
Move on twenty years, and Elite Dangerous codes the entire galaxy, including 400 billion stars (although less systems due to multiple-star systems). The mind boggles.
Even more spectacularly, a lone Russian programmer has done similar in a project called SpaceEngine, from black holes to aurora and planetary surfaces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayaSFMy0I7I
There are some incredibly brilliant people out there. I am in awe.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Thanks.. would have spotted it eventually, guv'nor!
No problem!
I suspect this 15 day period may be heading for an anomalous result - no Ashcroft, no ICM, no MORI - so it is going to be even more heavily dominated by YouGov and Populus than normal - which is going to mean high scores for both Lab and Con.
Only 4 polls so far so no average point yet on the graph - but when the average appears both Lab and Con are going to show very sharp jumps.
Why so few polls, surely summer holidays are almost over?
I am rather bored with all this doom and gloom... the way its presented one might as well pack up now and not bother with the election as its a foregone conclusion. What people are saying now has little bearing IMHO on what they will do in May 2015.
You don't believe the polls, or you think something will happen to change peoples minds?
I must be missing something something really obvious, but I don't know how anyone can expect a Labour victory in May 2015, when the party has such a narrow lead at this stage.
Had the Conservatives been ahead by 3% in August 2009, I think most of us would have predicted they were heading for another defeat.
We may get something that comes out of the left field, but it seems pretty plain to me that the Conservatives will be the biggest party next year.
OK, this is the arguement (not saying I agree)
1. Labour's lead may be modest, but it's solid because it's made up, not by Tory to Lab switchers as you would normally expect (and as in the last Parliament when it was Lab to Tory switchers) but by 2010 Lib-Dems - Labour voters who abandoned Labour for Lib in 2005 and 2010 - And these voters are only concerned in getting the Coalition out, so they are 100%, dyed in the wool certain for Labour.
2. Conservatives have lost more support to UKIP than Labour, and Kippers no longer prefer Con to Lab because they think LibLabCon is all the same, so they won't return.
Add Con to Kippers and 2010 Libs to Lab and Ed has it in the bag - Labour could re-run the Sheffield victory rally tomorrow and it still wouldn't make any difference.
The only problem I can see with the theory is that Labour appears to have lost about 8% of their support since the spring of 2013 and it's not clear to me where that 8% has gone, but if it should finish in the Conservative column via UKIP maybe, then things look very different.
Absolutely. There's also the small matter of what's happening in the country. People feel Cameron and the Tories have shafted them a bit, they're not feeling this so called "economic recovery" but the Cameron and Osbornes mates are.
"Trust us a bit longer, we have a plan, then we promise you can feel as rich as we are" isn't a great message.
What is Ed's plan?
Stop Cameron's Cost of Living Crisis by making sure that ordinary people feel the benefits of economic recovery and not just the few.
For example by freezing energy prices, reversing the millionaires tax cut, and stopping the sell-off of the NHS.
Bit vague that isn't it, but think about it, and bear in mind polling, it might be compelling....
Nick, I thought the the thief series was so good because the games didn't rely on combat or being teenage fast with mouse/keyboard clicks - then they brought out the latest which has sequences dependent on exactly that. The best game on the market at the moment is I think Europa Universalis IV, winning is entirely dependent on brain power and it doesn't take a super computer to run it.
I was a big fan of the Hearts of Iron modern(ish) counterpart to that one - had nice WW2 political stuff too, with accurate historical characters down to American communists and British nazis if the game shifted that way. The economic system was rubbish, but a great game all the same. Got distracted by real life as per usual.
Good thread. PBTories seem convinced that everything will be allright on the night. Even though all the evidence says otherwise.
Their delusion seems to based on nothing more than groupthink, Murdoch and the rest of the friendly media love the Tories so the voters must too.
Can you identify a single tory here who is convinced it will be "alright (that's how it is usual to spell it) on the night?" Thought not. The groupthink is yours: you believe what compouter tells you about the pb tories.
This strikes me as the most wide-open election since at least 1979, which is what makes it interesting. If you disagree, and have nothing to offer beyond frankly moronic "nyah-nyah-nyahnyahnyah you are going to lose" posts, why not save them up for a great big fat "I told you so" post after the election, and hold fire in the meantime?
Here's a sequence of numbers for you: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3. I don't know if they worry you, but I bet they worry ed miliband. Perhaps you have even more intellectual self-confidence than he does.
Aw bless.
Never mind, pump your numbers into the Swingback supercomputer see what happens. And don't forget Rupert is gonna "Kinnock" Ed to help his mate Dave, that'll save you!
It was Kinnock who Kinnocked Kinnock. There is no "crock of sh!t that is "swingback" as peddled by the media"; Swingback was a theory briefly espoused and now I think rejected by a single poster on here, and it was about movements in the last year before the General Election. Your theory that it is espoused by the mainstream media is exactly as valid and well-researched as your theory that the NHS has world-beating infant mortality statistics - you say it because it pops into your head, and for all you know it might be true. The trend in the figures above has run for twenty months. It doesn't need feeding into a computer to interpret. It may continue, plateau or reverse. The fact that you are incapable of understanding or discussing more than one of those three possibilities makes your posts a tiny bit monotonous.
Well if swingback is about movements in final 12 months the first 4 have shown a zero swingback so better hope it speeds up.
Swingback in my view is and always has been bollocks. My point was that it isn't even relevant bollocks.
On that we can agree.
So we come back to the key point - what's going to save the Tories?
We know that Murdoch and most of the media are going to try to "Kinnock" Ed Milliband to save their Tory chums. But what else?
Nick, I thought the the thief series was so good because the games didn't rely on combat or being teenage fast with mouse/keyboard clicks - then they brought out the latest which has sequences dependent on exactly that. The best game on the market at the moment is I think Europa Universalis IV, winning is entirely dependent on brain power and it doesn't take a super computer to run it.
EU4 is great, and I also enjoy Crusader Kings 2, and Victoria 2 isn't too bad either.
Preferably with a disc drive (5.25 inch, naturally) and a copy of Elite.
The reason the BBC computer sold so well was not that it was that good but because so many of them got thrown through the window because trying to dock in Elite (before you earned enough money to buy the gizmo that made it automatic) was so frustrating. yet the game, for its time, was so good you went and bought another computer because docking just has to be possible. Once someone brought out a cheat that gave the player the Gizmo from the word go, sales fell off a cliff.
Ah, a fellow-sufferer - I gave up on Elite altogether for that reason. Too many games nowadays also depend on manual dexterity.
Really? I find that despite having been playing games for 20 years, I'm still pretty bad at most genres of game, so I thought they were getting less tricky in terms of manual skill. Except strategy games - I love to play them, but remain so bad at them I must leave on the easiest settings, so I don't think they've gotten much easier over the years.
LA Noire I think had optional combat for the most part, or at least allowed players to skip most action content for more investigation of crime scenes and suspect interrogations, if memory serves. Not everyone's cup of tea as I recall.
On topic, will there ever be a moment UKIP genuinely stops being seen as solely for Tory cast offs? Sometimes they maintain they are not solely centre-right (even if many Tories who wish they could be UKIP but for whatever reason - including not wishing to stand for a whole new party in our two party system - insist they are still), and they are picking up voters from all areas now, and as the polling shows many would prefer a Labour government (either as a next best option or need to punish the Tories option), but the general view is still they are Tory-hards (in the same way the LDs are Labour-lite).
I guess as their rise hurts the Tories the most (or at the very least first), even with such polling they are seen as a Tory problem.
Nick, I thought the the thief series was so good because the games didn't rely on combat or being teenage fast with mouse/keyboard clicks - then they brought out the latest which has sequences dependent on exactly that. The best game on the market at the moment is I think Europa Universalis IV, winning is entirely dependent on brain power and it doesn't take a super computer to run it.
By the way, what thief series? Might pick up one of the earlier ones in view of what you say.
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Thanks.. would have spotted it eventually, guv'nor!
No problem!
I suspect this 15 day period may be heading for an anomalous result - no Ashcroft, no ICM, no MORI - so it is going to be even more heavily dominated by YouGov and Populus than normal - which is going to mean high scores for both Lab and Con.
Only 4 polls so far so no average point yet on the graph - but when the average appears both Lab and Con are going to show very sharp jumps.
Why so few polls, surely summer holidays are almost over?
Ashcroft is having a break till early Sept.
We have had the monthly ICM and MORI polls in the first half of Aug.
So all we can expect is an Opinium (right at the end of the period) and a ComRes (I assume). Not sure about Survation or TNS.
So it may just be:
YouGov - 9 (one missing due to Bank Holiday) Populus - 4 Opinium - 1 ComRes - 1
I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.
And I wish I was joking.
It isn't just "The West".
Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
BBC Newsnight @BBCNewsnight · 2 mins .@SecKermani speaks to British ISIS jihadi: "I hate the UK. The only reason I would come back is to plant a bomb." #newsnight
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 6 mins We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Well we can't make them stateless, but we could legislate such that someone fighting for ISIS would be guilty of treason, for instance (not sure if that is the case currently).
Rob - you've got the LD and UKIP scores the wrong way round on yesterday's YouGov - pretty obvious really when you look at them!
Thanks.. would have spotted it eventually, guv'nor!
No problem!
I suspect this 15 day period may be heading for an anomalous result - no Ashcroft, no ICM, no MORI - so it is going to be even more heavily dominated by YouGov and Populus than normal - which is going to mean high scores for both Lab and Con.
Only 4 polls so far so no average point yet on the graph - but when the average appears both Lab and Con are going to show very sharp jumps.
Why so few polls, surely summer holidays are almost over?
Ashcroft is having a break till early Sept.
We have had the monthly ICM and MORI polls in the first half of Aug.
So all we can expect is an Opinium (right at the end of the period) and a ComRes (I assume). Not sure about Survation or TNS.
So it may just be:
YouGov - 9 (one missing due to Bank Holiday) Populus - 4 Opinium - 1 ComRes - 1
I think there will be two ComRes. One phone poll and one internet poll.
I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.
And I wish I was joking.
And that would mean what for this country mr T ?
I think the West would win. But it would mean ferocious civil strife as we rooted out Islamic extremism in the UK. Internment and expulsion would be commonplace. The same would hold for many European countries with significant Muslim populations.
I fear the multicultural experiment has failed in the most catastrophic of ways. And liberal western democracy is simply incompatible with Muslim populations above about 1-2% max.
Above 10-20% and you have the perfect recipe for violent civil war.
I hope, for my daughter's sake, that I am utterly and laughably wrong.
So do I,i live in a majority muslim area of Bradford - ;-)
I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.
And I wish I was joking.
And that would mean what for this country mr T ?
I think the West would win. But it would mean ferocious civil strife as we rooted out Islamic extremism in the UK. Internment and expulsion would be commonplace. The same would hold for many European countries with significant Muslim populations.
I fear the multicultural experiment has failed in the most catastrophic of ways. And liberal western democracy is simply incompatible with Muslim populations above about 1-2% max.
Above 10-20% and you have the perfect recipe for violent civil war.
I hope, for my daughter's sake, that I am utterly and laughably wrong.
You are laughably wrong. Go have a kebab, you insecure little posh boy flower. And stop lifting your smalls to the dull Rightwing masses and do something worthwhile you shameless hussey!
I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.
And I wish I was joking.
And that would mean what for this country mr T ?
I think the West would win. But it would mean ferocious civil strife as we rooted out Islamic extremism in the UK. Internment and expulsion would be commonplace. The same would hold for many European countries with significant Muslim populations.
I fear the multicultural experiment has failed in the most catastrophic of ways. And liberal western democracy is simply incompatible with Muslim populations above about 1-2% max.
Above 10-20% and you have the perfect recipe for violent civil war.
I hope, for my daughter's sake, that I am utterly and laughably wrong.
You are laughably wrong. Go have a kebab, you insecure little posh boy flower. And stop lifting your smalls to the dull Rightwing masses and do something worthwhile you shameless hussey!
Please explain why he is wrong and also enlighten me as to how multiculturalism has been a success.
Back in the late 1980s/early 1990s I wrote some code to generate star systems automatically, using astronomical data and procedural generation (the now-discredited Bode's Law and variants thereof). I gave up when I ran into the limits of computing power (or at least my capability of exploiting it), even when hand-coding some critical routines in assembler. Lack of memory (only 4MB) was the killer as I had a load of NPCs trading between locations in the systems.
Move on twenty years, and Elite Dangerous codes the entire galaxy, including 400 billion stars (although less systems due to multiple-star systems). The mind boggles.
Even more spectacularly, a lone Russian programmer has done similar in a project called SpaceEngine, from black holes to aurora and planetary surfaces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayaSFMy0I7I
There are some incredibly brilliant people out there. I am in awe.
Thanks for that, Mr. J, The SpaceEngine looks awesome., One chap did that you say? The power of the human mind never ceases to amaze me.
P.S. Got to feel sorry for the kid in the video, watching as her dad plays, but she will probably grow up a genius.
I now put the chances of all-out world war between the West and Fundamentalist Islam at about 7/2, within the next 5-10 years.
And I wish I was joking.
And that would mean what for this country mr T ?
I think the West would win. But it would mean ferocious civil strife as we rooted out Islamic extremism in the UK. Internment and expulsion would be commonplace. The same would hold for many European countries with significant Muslim populations.
I fear the multicultural experiment has failed in the most catastrophic of ways. And liberal western democracy is simply incompatible with Muslim populations above about 1-2% max.
Above 10-20% and you have the perfect recipe for violent civil war.
I hope, for my daughter's sake, that I am utterly and laughably wrong.
You are laughably wrong. Go have a kebab, you insecure little posh boy flower. And stop lifting your smalls to the dull Rightwing masses and do something worthwhile you shameless hussey!
Nick, I thought the the thief series was so good because the games didn't rely on combat or being teenage fast with mouse/keyboard clicks - then they brought out the latest which has sequences dependent on exactly that. The best game on the market at the moment is I think Europa Universalis IV, winning is entirely dependent on brain power and it doesn't take a super computer to run it.
By the way, what thief series? Might pick up one of the earlier ones in view of what you say.
Nick, Thief III i sprobably the best and can be had for peanuts these days.
Comments
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Con 34% Lab 38%, Lib Dem 9% and UKIP 11%
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Con 34% Lab 38%, Lib Dem 9% and UKIP 11%
http://beestonia.wordpress.com/
Or was it the bankers or, even, Blair and Brown?
EICIPM
*look Sam, a fish!*
Whilst walking through Cambridge earlier, a poster outside St John's College attracted my attention. It said, in large letters:
"Jeffrey Archer
The Best Looking Man in England"
Only when I got closer did I see a small line of test in between: "Talks about George Mallory and Rupert Brooke"
Like him or loathe him, he knows how to get your attention.
As an aside, at the bottom it said: "Jeffrey has served five years in the House of Commons and twenty-two years as a member of the House of Lords." I am really, really surprised it did not include: "a month in Belmarsh".
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2295
Lesson Two - Bringing Children Back From A Pub Lunch.
Thursday's Metro front page - "British Muslims join MI5 in hunt for executioners" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/Sy3v5UB3XF
I was thinking this today,this is one way we can infiltrate these murderous ba$tards organization.
Jarrow march receiving a great reception in Yorkshire from what I saw on Look North
We should legislate so that British nationals who fight for Islamic State lose their citizenship. Let them stay there.
Though having to cope with the loss of a severely disabled son, can't be easy for The Camerons.
The last time they were in government, 1997, they gained ground (OK, not enough to save them from the worst defeat since Wellington, but they did gain ground in the last year from mid-term) and I don't need to remind you of 1992, 1987, etc... I'm sure.
There are valid arguments to say that it's already over Labour has it in the bag and there are valid arguments to say that Con could claw enough back in the final months to at least win most votes and seats.
None of us really know what's going to happen next year, do we?
'Good stuff. But Fisher first prediction had the Tories on a 97% certainty for a majority! Rod also had a 0% chance of a Labour majority.'
Any reason to believe that the Ashcroft polls are any more reliable than the much lauded Angus Reid polls in 2010?
http://www.elitedangerous.com/
Edit:Sorry Josias. missed your post
Thursday's Daily Mirror front page - "John the executioner" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/cqCtWlugIG
It sounds like the mirror might have some clues to who the murdering ba$tard is.
NHS aren't even going to let me have any polling information whilst I spend time in their care
Anyway one final Ed is Crap is PM from me.
I hope to be out in time to put the polls I miss into next weeks BJESUS.
Reason 1 - they are not complete bullshit.
Best of luck John, and don't scare the nurses!
Given current polling nationwide, I don't think Nick will find the time though. Even if he doesn't make it in, Labour are set. Not out of strength, but the Conservative position is so weak, so divided, I just cannot see the things that might tilt things in their favour being enough.
December 2015 I reckon for proper crossover so should be OK!!!
I suspect this 15 day period may be heading for an anomalous result - no Ashcroft, no ICM, no MORI - so it is going to be even more heavily dominated by YouGov and Populus than normal - which is going to mean high scores for both Lab and Con.
Only 4 polls so far so no average point yet on the graph - but when the average appears both Lab and Con are going to show very sharp jumps.
Move on twenty years, and Elite Dangerous codes the entire galaxy, including 400 billion stars (although less systems due to multiple-star systems). The mind boggles.
Even more spectacularly, a lone Russian programmer has done similar in a project called SpaceEngine, from black holes to aurora and planetary surfaces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayaSFMy0I7I
There are some incredibly brilliant people out there. I am in awe.
For example by freezing energy prices, reversing the millionaires tax cut, and stopping the sell-off of the NHS.
Bit vague that isn't it, but think about it, and bear in mind polling, it might be compelling....
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls
All the best bigjohn, see you soon.
So we come back to the key point - what's going to save the Tories?
We know that Murdoch and most of the media are going to try to "Kinnock" Ed Milliband to save their Tory chums. But what else?
'Stop Cameron's Cost of Living Crisis by making sure that ordinary people feel the benefits of economic recovery and not just the few.
Bit vague that isn't it, but think about it, and bear in mind polling, it might be compelling....'
Surely all benefits restored plus an immediate 5% wage increase and public sector pension reforms reversed ?
LA Noire I think had optional combat for the most part, or at least allowed players to skip most action content for more investigation of crime scenes and suspect interrogations, if memory serves. Not everyone's cup of tea as I recall.
On topic, will there ever be a moment UKIP genuinely stops being seen as solely for Tory cast offs? Sometimes they maintain they are not solely centre-right (even if many Tories who wish they could be UKIP but for whatever reason - including not wishing to stand for a whole new party in our two party system - insist they are still), and they are picking up voters from all areas now, and as the polling shows many would prefer a Labour government (either as a next best option or need to punish the Tories option), but the general view is still they are Tory-hards (in the same way the LDs are Labour-lite).
I guess as their rise hurts the Tories the most (or at the very least first), even with such polling they are seen as a Tory problem.
We have had the monthly ICM and MORI polls in the first half of Aug.
So all we can expect is an Opinium (right at the end of the period) and a ComRes (I assume). Not sure about Survation or TNS.
So it may just be:
YouGov - 9 (one missing due to Bank Holiday)
Populus - 4
Opinium - 1
ComRes - 1
Never mind ISIS, sepsis might see you off first,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28870734
;-)
Islam has an "Eastern Front" too: India (Kashmir), China (Xinjiang), Burma (the Rohingas), Thailand (Malay borderlands), Indonesia (eg. the Molucca Islands), and the Philippines (Mindanao Islands).
.@SecKermani speaks to British ISIS jihadi: "I hate the UK. The only reason I would come back is to plant a bomb." #newsnight
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20959228
Best wishes
By "all out world war" do you mean people from these "sides" bombing and killing each other all over the place?
Golly what are the odds.
Like Christian/Jew/Hindu/Buddhist Vs Fundamentalist Islam?
Rather than The West Vs Fundementalist Islam?
Before they can engage in a World War, they need to sort out a few of the schisms in Islam first.
P.S. Got to feel sorry for the kid in the video, watching as her dad plays, but she will probably grow up a genius.