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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One election defeat then the Right will realign
The Conservative Party is one of the oldest and most successful political parties across the world. It is so partly because it has had in the past displayed a surprisingly flexible approach in adapting to defeat, and partly because it has ensured it dominated the political field on the centre-right, either by eliminating or allying with rivals. So can it do so against in response to the rise of U…
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HA!
Wishful thinking i'm afraid. UKIP is full of people that you just can't reason with. Take immigration. London - where most immigrants head - has become the worlds best city. If only the rest of the UK had these hard working people. We could may be more like China, a successful economy.
Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future..... UKIP voters. The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country,
Yup the right won't realign until the right deal with its bunch of never never land idiots.0 -
Personally I would welcome a split on the right, and on the left too for that matter, British politics would be far healthier if we had 5 main parties, Greens/Respect on the left, Labour on the centre-left, the LDs in the centre, the Tories on the centre-right and UKIP on the right. It would need PR to accelerate it, but it is a trend which is beginning to happen across Europe and globally too0
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Oh and also. UKIP are helping to destroy the Tory membership base.
Something PB Tory's just don't understand.0 -
"For the first time in over a century, the right is more split than the left."
SDP?0 -
The Conservatives have had a long term problem with winning in urban areas. UKIP doesn't seem to have this problem.0
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Wait is that a black door to no 10th ? Surprised Cam hasn't painted it white...0
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Hope springs eternal I suppose. Although that the easiest or more likely way to 'heal' the right will be following a Conservative defeat apparently, shows how they are already preparing themselves for opposition despite 2 years left in power.
Will if UKIP win any MPs play a part in how things turn out. I'd still think they won't manage it, and might the bubble burst immediately if they win nothing despite all the noise and support they had, out of disappointment, and would a couple of MPs being present manage to sustain it longer?
Hard to argue that leadership could be decided based on policy on EU withdrawal, given being too pro-europe was already a concern in the past in such contests I believe, it not critical.0 -
support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country
Seems a bit harsh to exile people just for being arseholes0 -
Sounds good to me, although it seems clear the LDs don't really want to be in the dead centre, as they might like to think, given how many jumped ship the second they started working with the enemy. They want to go left I think.HYUFD said:Personally I would welcome a split on the right, and on the left too for that matter, British politics would be far healthier if we had 5 main parties, Greens/Respect on the left, Labour on the centre-left, the LDs in the centre, the Tories on the centre-right and UKIP on the right. It would need PR to accelerate it, but it is a trend which is beginning to happen across Europe and globaly too
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On topic, Europe isn't the only thing dividing the Tories from UKIP. Climate change, gay marriage, human rights, immigration, you name it: Cameron is closer to Ed Miliband than Nigel Farage.
The Tory party could ditch Cameron and move towards UKIP first, but they'd have to go well to the right of where Willam Hague positioned them, and the constituency for that is worth 30% tops.0 -
First deals emerging in NOC County Councils
Con+LD+Ind to run Lincolnshire
Con got the support of 3 Independents to run Oxfordshire.0 -
They just got 23% in the local elections, and demonstrated a pattern of support that looks concentrated enough to win Westminster seats.kle4 said:
Will if UKIP win any MPs play a part in how things turn out. I'd still think they won't manage it, and might the bubble burst immediately if they win nothing despite all the noise and support they had, out of disappointment, and would a couple of MPs being present manage to sustain it longer?
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-19181714
Industrial scale child abuse covered up for years by the political class. Good to see the BBC very very slowly being forced by the scale of the problem into giving this issue 1% of the airtime they enthusiastically gave to the Catholic priests.
And still not one word from any member of the political class or any kind of inquiry into how this was covered up for years.
"The court was told one of the other victims was regularly sold for sex to workers at two Telford restaurants and a Wellington fish and chip shop, as well as to associates of the two brothers."
I wonder if those men were in this country and working illegally and sending their money home hence the exponential explosion in the demand for virtually free prostitution which can only be supplied through exploiting children.
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I think there's a danger of over-analysis.
People are just grumpy, Labour are not providing an outlet for that grumpiness, and the LibDems can't do because they are in government. UKIP's voters on the 2nd May, and in Eastleigh, were by no means necessarily to the right of the Conservative Party. A lot of them just wanted to give the establishment a kick, and were quite explicit about this.
No realignment, or change of leadership, can alter the basic facts of life, and it is those that people are grumpy about.
The only question is whether they'll cut off their noses to spite their faces in May 2015. If so, we'll all soon have much better reason to be grumpy.
Meanwhile, it really does look as though the economy is improving.0 -
While building a membership base of their own.IOS said:Oh and also. UKIP are helping to destroy the Tory membership base.
Something PB Tory's just don't understand.
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EdmundinTokyo - You can add grammar schools to that list too!0
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Interesting to see what the LDs would do in this world. In some ways they're ideally placed to supplant the Tories if the latter goes on a rightward adventure.0
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kle4 - Some left-wing LDs could join a more SDP-style Labour under such a system, if some of the left of Labour joined the Greens/Respect under PR. The LDs would then be a more FDP style Liberal Party, although maybe closer to the Canadian Liberals and less economically libertarian0
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http://www.skegnessstandard.co.uk/news/local/lincolnshire-s-conservatives-form-county-council-coalition-with-liberal-democrats-and-independents-1-5077483?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeedtim said:
Cue UKIP saying "see they prefer to be in office with the LDs than proper Conservatives" re Lincolnshire.AndreaParma_82 said:First deals emerging in NOC County Councils
Con+LD+Ind to run Lincolnshire
Con got the support of 3 Independents to run Oxfordshire.
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No they aren't.Jonathan said:Interesting to see what the LDs would do in this world. In some ways they're ideally placed to supplant the Tories if the latter goes on a rightward adventure.
What might be interesting is if UKIP's rise drives down the Conservatives' numbers to the point that the LDs see a short term electoral advantage in forcing a GE.
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NBC New Jersey
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Chris Christie (R) 41%
Chris Christie (R) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 40%0 -
You mean the case which is on its fifth inquiry (or is it 4th)?tim said:@MrJones
All arguments that could apply to the North Wales children's homes, with white perpetrators and victims no one cared about.
Looking at the BNP polling the British people are far too sensible to fall for the racial propaganda on child abuse.0 -
Wishful thinking David. UKIP is here to stay and it will take a new voting system for the Tories to get back into power with them now.0
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Can we quote you as an official spokesman for the Labour Party?IOS said:HA!
Wishful thinking i'm afraid. UKIP is full of people that you just can't reason with. Take immigration. London - where most immigrants head - has become the worlds best city. If only the rest of the UK had these hard working people. We could may be more like China, a successful economy.
Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future..... UKIP voters. The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country,
Yup the right won't realign until the right deal with its bunch of never never land idiots.0 -
This is pretty horrifying:
Cleveland Police has agreed to pay £550,000 in damages after prominent defence lawyer James Watson was falsely imprisoned, BBC Newsnight has learned.
...
The force admits falsely imprisoning Mr Watson and his family when the lawyer was arrested in 2009, wrongful interference with his belongings and trespass.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-224521570 -
And with such condescending dismissiveness is it any wonder people are turning their back on the Conservative Party in disgust......RichardNabavi said:I think there's a danger of over-analysis.
People are just grumpy, Labour are not providing an outlet for that grumpiness, and the LibDems can't do because they are in government. UKIP's voters on the 2nd May, and in Eastleigh, were by no means necessarily to the right of the Conservative Party. A lot of them just wanted to give the establishment a kick, and were quite explicit about this.
No realignment, or change of leadership, can alter the basic facts of life, and it is those that people are grumpy about.
The only question is whether they'll cut off their noses to spite their faces in May 2015. If so, we'll all soon have much better reason to be grumpy.
Meanwhile, it really does look as though the economy is improving.0 -
David Herdson is barking up the wrong tree this time. UKIP as a party and as a force is here to stay. It will, to put it bluntly, stay as an independent party, free of any tory links or grand alliances. I believe that if Nigel Farage even proposed a minor pact with the blues, over half the present membership of UKIP would leave: chick, chuck! So against this proposition happening are the majority, that except for local arrangements, it's a non starter.
Indeed the desire of UKIP is to supplant the Tories as the leading party of the liberal right.
Everything, even political parties have a life span. There is no doubt now that after 80 years of first, appeasement to Germany, Then many in the party wanting to surrender to Hitler, (saved only by Churchills bravery and stubbornness), then after the war, surrendering to social democracy, and then the final surrender, to the common market; that the conservatives have run their course.
The Blues are a decaying party, they are dying bit by little bit.0 -
"All arguments that could apply to the North Wales children's homes, with white perpetrators and victims no one cared about."tim said:
Griffin is too thick to have even one inquiry into the BNPs vote falling off a cliff.MrJones said:
You mean the case which is on its fifth inquiry (or is it 4th)?tim said:@MrJones
All arguments that could apply to the North Wales children's homes, with white perpetrators and victims no one cared about.
Looking at the BNP polling the British people are far too sensible to fall for the racial propaganda on child abuse.
Is that what you meant?
Except they don't apply at all. The North Wales case is on its 4th or 5th inquiry. The industrial scale child abuse that was going on out in plain sight all over the country and covered up for years hasn't even a whisper of one.
The only similarity between the two cases is political resistance. The various inquiries into North wales were borked because they led back to a few MPs. An inquiry into the cover-up of the industrial scale child abuse called grooming would lead back to 30-40 Labour constituencies.
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On this I think David Herdson is wrong. The EU is only one aspect on it. Far more important I suspect is that the Tories are a broken party with a trashed brand and a lousy reputation but seem not to realise it. We saw how people reacted to the Libdems cozying up to them. Why would UKIP taint themselves by doing the same thing?
The biggest barrier to a reunification of the right is the very nature of the Conservative Party.0 -
Good lord, are people really suggesting UKIP should be taken seriously as a political party?
OK - how about some serious policy answers then. The following would be good places to start:
(1) Is it, or is it not, the policy of the UKIP that the UK should stay in the EEA? Yes or no? This is a pretty basic question for a party which advocates leaving the EU, so presumably there's a well-argued paper somewhere which gives us the answer.
(2) Is it, or is it not, the policy of UKIP to have a flat tax rate incorporating National Insurance?
(3) UKIP's aspirations appear to be both to reduce taxes and to reduce borrowing, whilst increasing spending on defence. Sounds great. How would UKIP manage this?0 -
Mr Farage was interviewed by The Telegraph yesterday. As I recall, when pressed, he said any deal on joint Conservative-UKIP candidates would be up to the local association, but that UKIP standing aside in a whole chunk of Tory marginals was just not going to happen.MikeK said:
I believe that if Nigel Farage even proposed a minor pact with the blues, over half the present membership of UKIP would leave: chick, chuck! So against this proposition happening are the majority, that except for local arrangements, it's a non starter.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegram/100215993/after-the-earthquake-is-dave-dancing-to-ukips-tune/0 -
The only thing a political party needs to be taken seriously is for the alternative parties to be taken less seriously.RichardNabavi said:Good lord, are people really suggesting UKIP should be taken seriously as a political party?
OK - how about some serious policy answers then. The following would be good places to start:
(1) Is it, or is it not, the policy of the UKIP that the UK should stay in the EEA? Yes or no? This is a pretty basic question for a party which advocates leaving the EU, so presumably there's a well-argued paper somewhere which gives us the answer.
(2) Is it, or is it not, the policy of UKIP to have a flat tax rate incorporating National Insurance?
(3) UKIP's aspirations appear to be both to reduce taxes and to reduce borrowing. Sounds great. How would UKIP manage this?0 -
Indeed so.MrJones said:The only thing a political party needs to be taken seriously is for the alternative parties to be taken less seriously.
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Oh dear. Well how about the Tory Party coming clean and telling us exactly what powers they intend to recover from Brussels?RichardNabavi said:Good lord, are people really suggesting UKIP should be taken seriously as a political party?
OK - how about some serious policy answers then. The following would be good places to start:
(1) Is it, or is it not, the policy of the UKIP that the UK should stay in the EEA? Yes or no? This is a pretty basic question for a party which advocates leaving the EU, so presumably there's a well-argued paper somewhere which gives us the answer.
(2) Is it, or is it not, the policy of UKIP to have a flat tax rate incorporating National Insurance?
(3) UKIP's aspirations appear to be both to reduce taxes and to reduce borrowing, whilst increasing spending on defence. Sounds great. How would UKIP manage this?0 -
As many as we can, and then there will be an In-Out referendum on the amended terms. Of course, we can't know what our EU friends are prepared to accept, but if you genuinely want to leave the EU, what does it matter? You'll get the referendum you claim to want, if you all vote Conservative.smithersjones2013 said:
Oh dear. Well how about the Tory Party coming clean and telling us exactly what powers they intend to recover from Brussels?
Perhaps you don't want an In/Out referendum. That is the only possible explanation.
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Des Lynam comes out for UKIP
http://order-order.com/2013/05/10/des-lynam-endorses-ukip/0 -
Funnily enough, there was a referendum vote in 2011. The majority of the parliamentary Conservative party voted against it. They were whipped to vote against it by the party leadership.RichardNabavi said:
As many as we can, and then there will be an In-Out referendum on the amended terms. Of course, we can't know what our EU friends are prepared to accept, but if you genuinely want to leave the EU, what does it matter? You'll get the referendum you claim to want.smithersjones2013 said:
Oh dear. Well how about the Tory Party coming clean and telling us exactly what powers they intend to recover from Brussels?
Perhaps you don't want it.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2011/10/the-79-conservative-mps-who-voted-for-a-referendum.html
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What as cop out! I say again. What powers is David Cameron going to recover? None? Is he going to recommend that we stay in (as her said he will whatever) despite failing to recover any powers?RichardNabavi said:
As many as we can, and then there will be an In-Out referendum on the amended terms. Of course, we can't know what our EU friends are prepared to accept, but if you genuinely want to leave the EU, what does it matter? You'll get the referendum you claim to want.smithersjones2013 said:
Oh dear. Well how about the Tory Party coming clean and telling us exactly what powers they intend to recover from Brussels?
Perhaps you don't want it.0 -
Of course, because (a) it would be stark raving mad for a Eurosceptic party to hold a referendum before renegotiation, given that a Stay In result would cement in place all the worst aspects of the being in the EU for a generation, and (b) we didn't have a majority, remember? What's the point of a futile losing vote?anotherDave said:unnily enough, there was a referendum vote in 2011. The majority of the parliamentary Conservative party voted against it. They were whipped to vote against it by the party leadership.
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OK, but you are the ones claiming UKIP should be taken seriously. OK, I'm happy to play along. Stop bitching about the Tories, and answer my three basic questions about why we should take UKIP seriously, rather than regarding them as a load of moaners who just bitch about the Tories but haven't actually got a fag-paper of an idea of what they would do differently.smithersjones2013 said:
What as cop out! I say again. What powers is David Cameron going to recover? None? Is he going to recommend that we stay in (as her said he will whatever) despite failing to recover any powers?
Edit: Anyway, I'm off the bed. I look forward to reading the definitive answers to my questions in the morning.
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With the non-Conservative Party MPs who voted along with the Conservative rebels, there were enough votes to pass.RichardNabavi said:
Of course, because (a) it would be stark raving mad for a Eurosceptic party to hold a referendum before renegotiation, given that a Stay In result would cement in place all the worst aspects of the being in the EU for a generation, and (b) we didn't have a majority, remember? What's the point of a futile losing vote?anotherDave said:unnily enough, there was a referendum vote in 2011. The majority of the parliamentary Conservative party voted against it. They were whipped to vote against it by the party leadership.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/25/mp-voted-for-eu-referendum
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David, you are applying an old and out of date paradigm. All that stuff about being historically the most successful party etc etc
The conservative party is now Labour - desperate to hang on to gains made. This also explains why they are doing better with the women's vote - traditionally more conservative with a small "c" (Tim please note). Now Labour is even claiming to be a "One Nation" party - how conservative is that. It is no longer the party of the poor fighting the rich - it can't be if it is for "One Nation".
All the new ideas are on the right. The right wing now has the parties of change. Hence they are more divided - all the ideas are on the right. The argument is not whether we are a left wing or a right wing country - only at what speed do we become a right wing country.
It would be better if Labour and Liberal Democrats embraced this, as I would prefer right wing policies to be enacted by them rather than the Tories.0 -
Another nonsense theory: really they havent a clue how much UKIP have grown and developed in the last eight months.anotherDave said:
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Until they thought it involved a "Senior Tory of the Thatcher era" - then we heard about it all the time. When it turned out not to be said person it went very quiet...tim said:white perpetrators and victims no one cared about.
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Thoughtful piece as usual, Mr H.0
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David Herdson,
This is a good article and pretty much what I have been saying for a long time now. A strong UKIP vote in the next election makes it likely the next leader will support withdrawal. Now that big beasts from Lawson to Healey have backed the position, it can no longer be seen as extreme, which makes it more likely still. I also imagine that the next government will have a mandate that is very wide, but not deep at all, and is likely to disappoint centrists and the Left alike. 2020 will be a very interesting election, but it could well be the one that sees the first ever UK government that advocates leaving the EU.0 -
The polling evidence is that not much of the swing to UKIP is being driven by Europe. There is much more which divides the right and even if the European question were settled, UKIP would be best placed to represent a very significant coalition of views.0
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It is so partly because it has had in the past displayed a surprisingly flexible approach in adapting to defeat
Can this be said to be true of the present Conservative party?
I think they are displaying a remarkably high degree of ideological certainty and inflexibility. You just have to consider the way in which Thatcher was talked about recently.
I don't know how this quibble affects the rest of your analysis, but I thought it was worth raising.0 -
http://youtu.be/aLlrfEYtqFUtim said:The big division on the right is between neo liberal Thatcherites and scared little Englander protectionists.
Camerons inability to decide which side of that fence he is on, and his cowardice in not facing down what he should be opposing deserves to condemn him to the dustbin of history.
The man who split the right because he hasn't got a spine.
Scared of Bulgarians, scared of golf cub bores in blazers, scared of building a runway.
What a pathetic sight he is.0 -
On Topic.
"The biggest division would be the question of the EU but the Conservative Party is now heavily EU-phobic and while that might not be obvious at parliamentary level it’s more openly so in the voluntary party. Were UKIP to take, say, 10%+ in the 2015 election, that would be taken as a green light by many to advocate EU withdrawal (irrespective of whether that was really the factor that had pushed voters that way). It is far from unrealistic to believe that adopting such a policy could be decisive for a leadership contender"
As was pointed out quite some time ago. When Cammie couldn't win a majority there were quite a few tories who immediately pointed at the UKIP 3.1% and said that had been enough to cause crucial losses in marginals and cost the majority. Any figure above that will cause the precise same voices to be joined by all those who have moved OUTwards since the Eurocrisis. OUT is going to be at or near the top of any future leadership battle.
"With the EU question resolved "
That makes it sound relatively simple when the truth is such a battle concentrated on IN or OUT has the power to split the tories and cause carnage that would make all previous Europe splits look tame in comparison. BOO tories will not have it all their own way because so many in the leadership and party heirarchy (including funders) are not going to give up without a fight. BOO might well hold sway in the tory membership and party as a whole but it is far from assured that they can get a majority of MPs onside.0 -
You're usually quite perceptive on Tory splits but I don't think this rings true, if only because the Thatcherites are more likely to be found on what you'd call the little Englander side of the fence. This feels more like a rerun of Heath versus Thatcher with Cameron representing the aimless consensus style of politics.tim said:The big division on the right is between neo liberal Thatcherites and scared little Englander protectionists.
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Adding to my previous comment, the faction which rejects this consensus in many ways still hasn't found its driving purpose, but in Europe it has a concrete issue on which to fight.
If UKIP continues to gather momentum it has an opportunity to rebuild the Thatcher coalition between the aspirational working class and business, but it will need to become much more self-assured in advocating small state liberal economic policies.0 -
Good of you to remind people what Cammie and Osbrowne's master strategy used to be for the lib dems. Remember Cammie saying that his favourite joke was Nick Clegg? Almost as funny as Cammie running to Clegg to save him after failing to win a majority.RichardNabavi said:Good lord, are people really suggesting UKIP should be taken seriously as a political party?
The Cameroon spinners could of course revert to saying the next election is only a choice between Cammie and little Ed. That Cammie will be saying so after being in coalition with the lib dems will obviously be the source of much hilarity, but they can still try.
I believe this is sincere. Cameroons really don't have a clue why the tory right are so fiercely Eurosceptic and it comes as a genuine surprise to them that they are. Portillo confirmed this when he recounted that when he had told those around Cameron that he supported OUT their response was shock and disbelief. The leadership has now spent years insulated from the reality that Euroscepticism was increasingly hardening into BOO. Clear warning signs like EU rebellions were simply put down to tory MPs being grumpy and not happy with Cammie anyway.RichardNabavi said:Lord only knows why they are behaving as they are. It's bonkers.
Cammie still has the numbers on his side however. Current Eurosceptics may well be far more inclined to BOO but they also prefer posturing to toppling a leader. Cammie can still take advantage of their innate gullibility and spin them ever more nonsense on his Cast Iron referendum and they will just have to swallow it, no matter how preposterous.
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Thanks for the info, Andrea.AndreaParma_82 said:
First deals emerging in NOC County Councils
Con+LD+Ind to run Lincolnshire
Con got the support of 3 Independents to run Oxfordshire.0 -
Maybe Ukip would rather not be associated with a tarnished brand.tim said:
Cue UKIP saying "see they prefer to be in office with the LDs than proper Conservatives" re Lincolnshire.AndreaParma_82 said:First deals emerging in NOC County Councils
Con+LD+Ind to run Lincolnshire
Con got the support of 3 Independents to run Oxfordshire.0 -
First time ever I think I can fully 100% agree with you.IOS said:HA!
Wishful thinking i'm afraid. UKIP is full of people that you just can't reason with. Take immigration. London - where most immigrants head - has become the worlds best city. If only the rest of the UK had these hard working people. We could may be more like China, a successful economy.
Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future..... UKIP voters. The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country,
Yup the right won't realign until the right deal with its bunch of never never land idiots.
Just like Boris I'm a Conservative who fully welcomes migration. Those who wish to come here and work are not the problem, those born and bred here who think living a lifetime on benefits is normal are the problem.
More migrants. Less socialism.
If the Conservatives turned anti-immigration they'd lose my membership and my vote. Its not just the likes of Boris and I, personally I know many right-wing economically Conservatives in business who value hard-working immigrants and their contributions to society just the same too.0 -
Here's the other problem with this:
Were UKIP to take, say, 10%+ in the 2015 election, that would be taken as a green light by many to advocate EU withdrawal (irrespective of whether that was really the factor that had pushed voters that way). It is far from unrealistic to believe that adopting such a policy could be decisive for a leadership contender, particularly with the prospect of Ed Miliband signing up to five more years of Euro-socialism.
Adopting a BOO position doesn't actually resolve the issue of splits on Europe. Now they'd be saying "out", but what kind of "out"? At that point they're going to start arguing about whether they still want to be in the EEA.
With the EU question resolved...
This is the problem with trying to get unity by giving concessions to the right. It doesn't matter how far you go, there's always another position further to the right.0 -
They've got nothing on the Quebec language police. I particularly enjoyed this cartoon about the recent pastagate scandal which led to the resignation of the chief of the organisation... http://i.imgur.com/yCx2mLh.pngold_labour said:0 -
Were there any seats where the UKIP vote exceeded the Lab or LD majority?Mick_Pork said:On Topic.
"
As was pointed out quite some time ago. When Cammie couldn't win a majority there were quite a few tories who immediately pointed at the UKIP 3.1% and said that had been enough to cause crucial losses in marginals and cost the majority. Any figure above that will cause the precise same voices to be joined by all those who have moved OUTwards since the Eurocrisis. OUT is going to be at or near the top of any future leadership battle.
"With the EU question resolved "
That makes it sound relatively simple when the truth is such a battle concentrated on IN or OUT has the power to split the tories and cause carnage that would make all previous Europe splits look tame in comparison. BOO tories will not have it all their own way because so many in the leadership and party heirarchy (including funders) are not going to give up without a fight. BOO might well hold sway in the tory membership and party as a whole but it is far from assured that they can get a majority of MPs onside.
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Morning all.
Just been VI'd by You Gov.
Also a load of questions on energy policy, carbon capture and green taxes etc.0 -
Good morrow fair PBers.
What a week chez Jack W !!
Firstly I had to derail the attempts of Man Utd to prevail upon me to take over from Sir Alex. Tempting as it was to have a Jacobite in charge of Manchester for the first time since 1745, I had to point out that having another elderly titled Scot in charge for another 26 years might be a wee bit too much !!
Next I had a most unpleasant experience in the newly opened Harpenden library in casually coming across biographies of Paddy Ashdown and the history of the LibDems .... After a fit of the vapours I was forced to recover at a local hostelry for several hours !!
And finally I have grave concerns for the health of Mrs Jack W after she returned from some expected retail therapy in Bond Street without a new pair of shoes to her name !! .... A most disturbing trend - a bit like finding your favourite dog no longer fetches small hedgehogs into the home with such a sense of pride !!
To bring some sense of normality to proceedings I shall be issuing the latest ARSE 2015 GE Projection a little later.0 -
IIUC there were a couple, but not by enough for UKIP's presence to have plausibly swung it.OldKingCole said:
Were there any seats where the UKIP vote exceeded the Lab or LD majority?Mick_Pork said:On Topic.
"
As was pointed out quite some time ago. When Cammie couldn't win a majority there were quite a few tories who immediately pointed at the UKIP 3.1% and said that had been enough to cause crucial losses in marginals and cost the majority. Any figure above that will cause the precise same voices to be joined by all those who have moved OUTwards since the Eurocrisis. OUT is going to be at or near the top of any future leadership battle.
"With the EU question resolved "
That makes it sound relatively simple when the truth is such a battle concentrated on IN or OUT has the power to split the tories and cause carnage that would make all previous Europe splits look tame in comparison. BOO tories will not have it all their own way because so many in the leadership and party heirarchy (including funders) are not going to give up without a fight. BOO might well hold sway in the tory membership and party as a whole but it is far from assured that they can get a majority of MPs onside.
If you start with 1000 UKIP votes in a Con/L*b marginal, you assume maybe 400 would otherwise have voted Con, 200 L*b and 400 other or none, so UKIP's presence has only meant net -200 for Con, or 20% of their total. You can play with those numbers and plug in different assumptions, but even in the most extreme case you probably need the UKIP vote to be double the size of the majority before you start thinking they may have cost Con the seat.0 -
@JW She's hiding something. Something will be delivered for sure.., its the season for frocks... and you should start to get worried.... can your wallet take the strain..
I know ..... been there already.0 -
She's smarter than she looks, that's quite a decent prediction of what's going to happen either way.tim said:@NadineDorriesMP: If David Cameron wants Conservative party to lose as many as fifty seats at next election he must push forward with the gay marriage bill
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o/t. Plenty of headlines over Co Op Bank trying to reassure depositors - fine but no FD, No CEO.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/uk-co-op-bank-ceo-idUKBRE94906U20130510
How long can the Silence of The Eds last?
Tories have always been an uneasy coalition of factions on the right - this time Cameron isn't doing enough to balance them and he has been caught wanting.0 -
Don't advertize it's the season for delivered new frocks, else I'll have Peter the Punter camping out at the main gates or hijacking Post Office delivery vans Harpenden wide !!SquareRoot said:@JW She's hiding something. Something will be delivered for sure.., its the season for frocks... and you should start to get worried.... can your wallet take the strain..
I know ..... been there already.
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IOS's comment from yesterday is a charming reminder of how sections of the Labour party view some of their countrymen. It deserves to be noted.
"Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future.....
The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country"
I'm not sure what the evidence is that Romanian are less homophobic than the British.
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Big rEd speech today no ?0
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Throwing out bigoted homophobes is an interesting idea, perhaps borrowed from the BNP. AbuQatata can have the first seat on the plane.Fat_Steve said:IOS's comment from yesterday is a charming reminder of how sections of the Labour party view some of their countrymen. It deserves to be noted.
"Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future.....
The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country"
I'm not sure what the evidence is that Romanian are less homophobic than the British.
I suspect IoS only wants to apply his exile policy to the White British.0 -
Like every country, the wide-ranging demographic of Britain encompasses morons. And democracy decrees that they too have the right to vote - and sometimes they use their votes. However, it's not really a good idea to pander to their views.Fat_Steve said:IOS's comment from yesterday is a charming reminder of how sections of the Labour party view some of their countrymen. It deserves to be noted.
"Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future.....
The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country"
I'm not sure what the evidence is that Romanian are less homophobic than the British.0 -
Fat_Steve said:
IOS's comment from yesterday is a charming reminder of how sections of the Labour party view some of their countrymen. It deserves to be noted.
"Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future.....
The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country"
I'm not sure what the evidence is that Romanian are less homophobic than the British.
Orwell on the British Left's contempt for Britain and its people;
" In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during 'God save the King' than of stealing from a poor box. All through the critical years ( prior to WW 2 ) many left-wingers were chipping away at English morale, trying to spread an outlook that was sometimes squashily pacifist, sometimes violently pro-Russian, but always anti-British. It is questionable how much effect this had, but it certainly had some. "
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@DPJHodges: Read extracts of Ed's Progress speech. If representative he needs to get away, have a break and ask himself "Do I want to be PM or not".TGOHF said:Big rEd speech today no ?
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Good morning, everyone.
F1: Horner claiming there are no dark clouds over Red Bull is about as convincing as the Iraqi Information Minister:
http://www.formula1.com/news/interviews/2013/5/14538.html0 -
What a fascinating rant.IOS said:HA!
Wishful thinking i'm afraid. UKIP is full of people that you just can't reason with. Take immigration. London - where most immigrants head - has become the worlds best city. If only the rest of the UK had these hard working people. We could may be more like China, a successful economy.
Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future..... UKIP voters. The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country,
Yup the right won't realign until the right deal with its bunch of never never land idiots.
IOS wants to throw out of the country large numbers of people who live in Hackney, Haringay, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark and Tower Hamlets.
Many being immigrants and the children and grandchildren of immigrants. Still it should leave some more room for the next lot of immigrants which IOS calls for, though I would hope the next lot would be selected more carefully. No Muslims or African Christians for one thing if IOS wants homophobes banned.
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Good morning all:JackW said:
Don't advertize it's the season for delivered new frocks, else I'll have Peter the Punter camping out at the main gates or hijacking Post Office delivery vans Harpenden wide !!SquareRoot said:@JW She's hiding something. Something will be delivered for sure.., its the season for frocks... and you should start to get worried.... can your wallet take the strain..
I know ..... been there already.
My Dear JackW, No one needs to travel in person to Bond Street these days. Ordering for the jolly jacobite is done on the internet these days. Or are the secrets of the latest ARSE prediction so sensitive, that you've locked away the tartan lap-top from Mrs JackW?
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F1: from the link below:
Horner: "And to say, ‘this one, yes’ and, ‘this one, no’ was never Sebastian’s style, to dictate, ‘I must have this or that’."
*cough* The whole world heard Vettel say on the radio that Webber was 'too slow' and to get him to move out of the way.
The last answer's the most telling:
"Q: Any dream result?
CH: A one-two - and no aggro!"
Horner's an incredibly weak team principal. Vettel ignored him blatantly and publicly and suffered no penalty. That may be due to Marko getting in the way, but it's still pretty feeble.
This could have an impact down the line on the title race. It depends whether Webber wants to stay at Red Bull or not. If he doesn't and a title rival (Alonso/Raikkonen) is breathing down his neck he might just let them by.0 -
I blame Osborne
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Briturn of the Jedi - Star Wars is coming back to Britain. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4923331/New-Star-Wars-movies-to-be-made-in-the-UK-after-Chancellor-meets-with-franchise-owners-Lucasfilm.html0 -
Con + Lab vote share:
1992: 76%
1997: 74%
2001: 73%
2005: 68%
2010: 65%
Looks like the voters are ready for four party politics.0 -
Good to see Avery in such jubiliant mood over yesturday's trade deficit figures.
I must lack his sharp eye for such things as I couldn't see the vast improvement which caused it:
2010Q1 -7.462bn
2011Q1 -3.934bn
2012Q2 -7.889bn
2013Q1 -9.067bn
Perhaps he could say whether he expects a monthly trade surplus before May 2015 ?
It would be somewhat embarrassing for the government not to manage at least one month's trade surplus over a whole five years when its stated economic aims were to end the budget deficit and rebalance the economy.
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Mr. Dave, although the historical nature of the data means we can't use it as a direct comparison it'd still be interesting to see how the Liberal/Labour change affected the percentage voting for the two main parties.
Now I come to think of it, the present situation's different not only due to the Coalition but also because there's been a more gradual return of the Liberals (as Lib Dems, alas). It'll be interesting to see whether UKIP also increases gradually or has more substantial gains like they enjoyed in the locals.0 -
So Ed Balls could give Yvette Cooper, H.Harman or EdM a hell of a physical beating. So what ?tim said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 2m
EXCL: Raging Balls - bruiser Ed would win a Commons punch up, poll says. Osborne and Hunt most likely to lose. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4923296/Shadow-Chancellor-Ed-Balls-would-win-Parliament-punch-up-according-to-new-poll.html …
Surprised that the Regency fop and Jeremy Chum didn't score higher.
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Cons are under attack from all sides. If they lose in 2015, it could be goodnight. The failure of the once great Tory party to win a majority in 2010 may have been a signal.
Without power (or the promise of power) the Tories are nothing.0 -
But EdM is a superhero ...MonikerDiCanio said:So Ed Balls could give ... EdM a hell of a physical beating. So what ?
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Silence of The Eds:
http://unlockdemocracy.org.uk/blog/entry/donor-of-the-week-the-co-operative-group
Loans or donations from Co-Op.
Ethical Banking model Ed M was proposing looks as if it is well and truly screwed. Was it as predatory as all the others, or just plain incompetent?0 -
Miss DiCanio, it's better to be the bruiser than the bruised.
However, given Balls' pathetic whining when he completely buggered up his Commons response to Osborne (Autumn Statement, I think) one might suspect that he'd be alright until he got struck, at which point he'd cry about the nasty man hitting him.0 -
@politicshomeuk: Labour must begin seriously preparing for coalition talks with the Lib Dems after the next election, Lord Adnois says http://polho.me/12kq5uu
...because he doesn't think they will win outright ...0 -
Ed Balls is the quintessential bully. He can intimidate weaklings but caves in under pressure.Morris_Dancer said:Miss DiCanio, it's better to be the bruiser than the bruised.
However, given Balls' pathetic whining when he completely buggered up his Commons response to Osborne (Autumn Statement, I think) one might suspect that he'd be alright until he got struck, at which point he'd cry about the nasty man hitting him.
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LOL - if only we could export Spinanother_richard said:Good to see Avery in such jubiliant mood over yesturday's trade deficit figures.
I must lack his sharp eye for such things as I couldn't see the vast improvement which caused it:
2010Q1 -7.462bn
2011Q1 -3.934bn
2012Q2 -7.889bn
2013Q1 -9.067bn
Perhaps he could say whether he expects a monthly trade surplus before May 2015 ?
It would be somewhat embarrassing for the government not to manage at least one month's trade surplus over a whole five years when its stated economic aims were to end the budget deficit and rebalance the economy.0 -
without FPTP, the Tories are nothing. Same goes for Labour.Jonathan said:Cons are under attack from all sides. If they lose in 2015, it could be goodnight. The failure of the once great Tory party to win a majority in 2010 may have been a signal.
Without power (or the promise of power) the Tories are nothing.
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UKIP sneered at again on PB? This has taken over from 'Ed is crap' as the favourite theme.
Voting UKIP is a concious and deliberate act---nobody votes UKIP 'because his father always did', or 'because he always has'.
Often, PB is in a bubble, albeit usually a slightly different one from Westminster. But AFA UKIP is concerned, the uncomprehending and dismissive attitude is similar And while that continues, and our political 'betters' claim to know what is good for us, UKIP will continue to attract voters.
Gay marriage is a case in point. How has campaigning against it become UKIP party policy? Was this through focus groups, or from private polling evidence? Or was from listening to people's concerns on the streets?
UKIP does not want to treat voters with with contempt, and is happy to reflect their attiutdes on a range of social issues. You don't want a wind farm next door to you, or on your horizon? Who listens to that worry? UKIP voters are as concerned about the enviroment as any other subset of the population. They are just as willing to make personal sacrifices. Equally, they are not so dim that they can't see that these 'renewables' represent poor value for money. They want neither British industry nor British pensioners to be disadvataged by significantly increased electricity costs, solely to meet some external and artificial 'clean energy target'.
I'll get my blazer.0 -
@MikeK
My dear old thing, you may wish to order multiple copies of Farage's "My Life As An Ordinary Millionaire" and other Ukip bestsellers over the inter web whilst scratching your ARSE and chomping on jam sandwiches but Mrs Jack W prefers the delight of the retail chase and then some light luncheon refreshment at the Connaught, Savoy or Le Gavroche.
To each their own .... as they say and do in some parts of rural Norfolk !!
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@tnewtondunn: ...Other Commons fight poll stats: Cameron the likely winner of a punch up with Ed Miliband, by 36% to 23%.
Ed, the Superhero ...0 -
This is what the Lib Dems did, right up until the point they got into Government and found out that telling different people different things they wanted to hear is not compatible with actually being in power.david_kendrick1 said:UKIP does not want to treat voters with with contempt, and is happy to reflect their attiutdes on a range of social issues.
Reflecting attitudes on a range of social issues is the very definition of treating voters with contempt if they can't actually be delivered0 -
“The pollster asked [Team Cameron] what kept them awake at night and... someone said 'school fees’”
Did anyone ask Diane Abbott?0
