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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    " they share the same disfunctionality(sic)."

    No, Dave never chased Obama through a kitchen.

    NewsSense™, just making shit up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Just read whole of EM Progress speech. Rubbish. Drivel. Embarrassing. Random phrases just thrown together. What is he doing at the moment.

    Note to creepy stalker, this is not a retweet...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Scott_P said:

    Is there any footage of Gordo chasing Obama through the kitchen?

    I don't think so - you'll have to make do with this:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K68THqDqPKc
    That was just so crass. Guido had Obama kitchen footage...

    I wonder where it went - I assume the copyright holder insisted on it being removed from YouTube - its was very amusing and used the Laurel and Hardy theme tune as background music IIRC :^ )
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    When any Labourites seek to mock anyone re the USA and Obama - remember Obama Beach... ;^ )

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgG8nX58gnA
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    (and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).

    I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.

    Lest we forget.
    Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner

    David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
    Not quite how things turned out, was it? ;^ )

    If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    (and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).

    I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.

    Lest we forget.
    Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner

    David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
    Not quite how things turned out, was it? ;^ )

    If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.


    Vote SNP get Pound Sterling/NATO/Monarchy/English language/etc?

    :)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    " they share the same disfunctionality(sic)."

    Dave been 'marker-penning' the Jag, and chucking phones and printers at the Garden Girls?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    What are you pretending to be today Sunny? A tory or a Kipper?

    :)

    One thing we know for certain is that you are a proud trainspotter and as such this should brighten your day.

    For those unaware of it the most 'enthusiastic' trainpotters become full fledged "foamers".

    Here's one to gladden Sunny's heart.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqvwnxgxazY

    :)


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    edited May 2013
    The Co Op story is rumbling on. This is by far the most popular comment in the UKIPograph about the story:

    One of the Co-op banks major debtors is – surprise, surprise – none other than the Labour Party themselves. Of the £3,580,000 borrowed in 1999, only £189,000 has been repaid, meaning Labour still owe their troubled lender £3,391,000. Maybe they could pay them back to help them out a bit…

    H/T Guido Fawkes


    Will it be a case of "Brother can you spare me a dime/£3m?"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    @Mick_Pork

    My avatar's still purple!

    :)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    If you've bet on a Labour majority in 2015 then I suggest you read this Peter Kellner article.

    He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.

    And this isn't some wild hypothetical - it is the lead required if the first term MP incumbency bonus is in line with past experience.

    http://labourmajority.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Majority-Rules1.pdf

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeL said:


    He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.

    7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.

    Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    Neil said:

    MikeL said:


    He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.

    7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
    Read Kellner's article. He is one of the most knowledgeable people in the country on this stuff.

    Just because people trot out UNS projections day after day after day doesn't mean they are right.

    As Mike S has demonstrated, the boundaries are only very slightly unfair. If Con can't get a majority with 7% lead, it's perfectly possible Lab might need a 7% lead.

    Kellner has done the analysis - read the article.
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Neil said:

    MikeL said:


    He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.

    7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
    For the last two elections the electoral calculators under estimated the Tory seat haul significantly. Do we need 7% for a Labourite majority? Possibly. And more believable than the 1% lead.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "particularly with the prospect of Ed Miliband signing up to five more years of Euro-socialism"

    What on Earth is "Euro-socialism"? Europe is dominated by the right, and has been for years. Just shows how absurdly right-wing the centre of gravity is at Westminster that anyone could say such a thing.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring."


    As someone once said, "unspoofable".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear

    @JohnRentoul: Now EdM is not "doing politics differently", he is "reinventing the old-fashioned town meeting, the way politics used to be done".

    Forward, to the past!!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeL said:


    Read Kellner's article.

    I did. He said that on the basis of some assumptions Labour could need a lead of 7% to get an overall majority. I dont think he was hanging his hat on that as a prediction at this stage. Based on no analysis whatsoever I find it difficult to believe that a Labour 39% - Tory 34% result wouldnt give Labour an overall majority.

    ps just because the boundaries are only slightly unfair doesnt mean that the threshold for a Labour majority (or lead) isnt a lot lower than for the Tories all else being equal
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Plato said:

    The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.

    Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.

    1079 posts?

    :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Peter_2 said:


    For the last two elections the electoral calculators under estimated the Tory seat haul significantly.

    Careful, if that's right (is it?) it may be another way of saying that an opposition gaining vote share from a government gets more seats than UNS would predict...

    That said, as well as the double-incumbency issue I wonder if there's a risk of double-counting left-leaning voters who are now moving from LibDem to Lab in the polls. A lot of them may already have been voting Labour in the Con/Lab marginals where it matters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyBet: 1/50. RT @KennaSAFC #RequestaBet @skybet odds on the pundits mentioning the wigan chairman injuring himself in the final over 10 times?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Bit disappointed with the Vergne bet. Ironically, the Massa one (which was just plain wrong) had the hedge matched and finished ahead. So, red (even with hedging) but only by a small margin.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053

    @Mick_Pork

    My avatar's still purple!
    :)

    You can get ointment for that..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You can get ointment for that..

    @GuidoFawkes: He should try penicillin >> @Markfergusonuk Tom Baldwin has the loudest clap in politics #pac13

    Surely Ed (SuperHero) didn't need his spinner to lead applause for the greatest speech ever made by SuperHero Ed , ever?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    You can get ointment for that..

    He doesnt need a cream - he just needs to loosen his grip.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,722
    The key point is this:

    The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.

    We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.

    Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.

    And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.

    Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @MikeL

    It seems we have our latest version of the "tactical unwind" debate to keep us busy until 2015 ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: I think Ed's Progress speech was written by Sarah Palin.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    (and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).

    I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.

    Lest we forget.
    Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner

    David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
    Not quite how things turned out, was it? ;^ )

    If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.


    I think you misunderstand me - it was a statement of fact rather than anything else.

    Personally I think 'vote X, get Y' is a faintly insulting argument. People are voting X because they prefer X to you. To claim that they don't understand the likely logical outcome of their decision is implying that they are stupid and/or reckless.

    Far better to figure out why they are voting X and then decide how / whether to address those concerns.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    @Mick_Pork

    My avatar's still purple!
    :)

    You can get ointment for that..
    Are you and Mick pretending to be Labour or SNP today?

    :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Great speech by rEd. Awesome. 6 weeks of that should nail it on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969
    Plato said:

    The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.

    Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.

    That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TGOHF

    It cant have been that good - there havent been hundreds of posts about what a game changer it was like we had after Dave's euro speech.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Great speech by rEd. Awesome. 6 weeks of that should nail it on.

    @rafaelbehr: So far Ed said nothing that close students of Milibandism don't know already and nothing anyone else would understand.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013
    EdM comes out against democracy. He thinks the British are too thick to have a referendum on Europe . King Edward knows best.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/11/ed-miliband-europe-referendum-weak-cameron-_n_3258785.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    MikeL said:

    The key point is this:

    The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.

    We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.

    Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.

    And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.

    Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.

    There are some snags in that analysis:

    1. Marginal seats aren't necessarily packed with wavering centrists. They just happen to have similar number of voters for two parties. My seat was classic commuter belt, and I lost lots of votes to the LibDems (and some Greens) from people who believed them to be more left-wing than me.

    2. By 2010, the Blair effect had disappeared, but Labour was still doing well in marginals.

    3. There are a number of marginal seats where the previous MP is standing again - so there may be a single incumbency bonus for the Tory MP there, but not a double one.

    4. Not all the 2010 crop have endeared themselves to their constituents - without being personal about it, some are really more interested in Westminster. That was clearly true with some Labour MPs too, but by 2010 the careerists in marginals had mostly lost already.

    So yes, I'd expect the efficiency bonus to be lower, but not to disappear. Journalists propser by writing provocative arguments and predicting close races...

    By the way, aren't we getting any new threads today?
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    Or indeed Tories lose votes in Bucks but win them in suburbia. IMO not sure the master strategy will work but a vote lost in the shires is not like one lost in suburbia. Still it makes the next election closer and more interesting. All to play for!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    Afternoon all. I see there's total silence as to what UKIP actually want to do in terms of key policies.

    Meanwhile, here in East Sussex the Conservative group are setting up a minority administration (they lost a net 9 seats, leaving them with 20 out of 49). This is quite interesting because the numbers are such that either a Con/LD or Con/UKIP coalition was theoretically possible, but it seems UKIP don't want to join any coalitions:

    Philip Howson, the newly elected leader of the UKIP group, said: “It’s a minority council but we will support them as much as possible as long as it’s in the best interests of the people of Sussex.

    “There was absolutely never any talk of a coalition.

    "The message from head office is ‘no deals’.”


    http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10412425.Conservatives_set_to_keep_control_of_East_Sussex_County_Council/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    "The message from head office is ‘no deals’.”

    Probably sensible.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Neil said:

    Probably sensible.

    Yes, politically and also practically, since the vast majority of UKIP's councillors will be complete novices. On the other hand, it may mean they are pretty invisible - opposition councillors have very little say under the cabinet system.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeL said:

    The key point is this:

    The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.

    We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.

    Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.

    And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.

    Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.

    And with all the above forgetting the cuckoo in the nest, UKIP.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Afternoon all. I see there's total silence as to what UKIP actually want to do in terms of key policies.

    Meanwhile, here in East Sussex the Conservative group are setting up a minority administration (they lost a net 9 seats, leaving them with 20 out of 49). This is quite interesting because the numbers are such that either a Con/LD or Con/UKIP coalition was theoretically possible, but it seems UKIP don't want to join any coalitions:

    Philip Howson, the newly elected leader of the UKIP group, said: “It’s a minority council but we will support them as much as possible as long as it’s in the best interests of the people of Sussex.

    “There was absolutely never any talk of a coalition.

    "The message from head office is ‘no deals’.”


    http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10412425.Conservatives_set_to_keep_control_of_East_Sussex_County_Council/

    Yep, as Lannisters pay their debts, so Kippers keep their promises

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. K, not sure you necessarily want to link your party to a family of [moderated for spoilers].
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Plato said:

    OT I'm a teeny bit tempted to try to watch The Wire again - I gave in a few episodes into S1 - it was largely macho aggressive shouty swearing and filmed in the dark.

    Whilst I can take a bit of this sort of nonsense - my boredom chip overrode and I pressed Off.

    I've read reviews on IMDb that says its the BESTEST THING EVAH and ones that seemed to agree with my first impressions. It got as far as S5 so I assume it must have some merit.

    Opinions welcome here. I've found the IMDb Most Recommended tables a strange beast - things I thought were mediocre/tedious have gained much higher reviews than I'd expect. I can only assume their demographic isn't mine.

    Probably a bit of a late reply, but we too found The Wire hard to get into. But we persevered, and it's not at all bad. We're currently in series 3.

    The characterisations aren't at all bad, for instance D'Aneglo in the first series, teaching some junior gang members how to play chess - absolute genius (warning, clip audio NSFW)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1HUlTKvDUI

    It's not the best thing ever, but it's worth watching IMHO.

    We find it helps to have subtitles on so we can understand what's being said at times. ;-)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @NickPalmer re Beijing - too long since I was there to offer a sensible hotel recommendation - but I can recommend a book about Peking on the eve of the Japanese take over:

    http://us.midnightinpeking.com/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Neil said:



    You can get ointment for that..

    He doesnt need a cream - he just needs to loosen his grip.

    Oooh! You are awful, but I like you!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    Plato said:

    The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.

    Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.

    That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
    @Plato

    I agree, there is less and less genuine debate and much more posting by trolls who are only interested in point scoring, sneering at other posters, endless repetition of their previous posts and smearing anyone who stands up to them. If the moderators used a bit more of a heavy hand then there would be more genuine and fruitful debate.

    Thankfully there are some polite and respectful posters who have interesting knowledge and experience and engage in genuine debate, but they are likely to be driven away by the trolls.

    Perhaps posts by any PBer should be limited to a maximum of say 10 in any 24 hours - that may help the problem.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited May 2013
    Footie's about to start - on ITV!

    EDIT
    Sorry just the warm-up programme - kick off's at 5.15!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mr. K, not sure you necessarily want to link your party to a family of [moderated for spoilers].

    There are no swords or axes in UKIP's coffers, just good solid policies - some still being hammered out in the smithy.

    BTW have you read Game of Thrones and not just seen the series on TV?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Just read Ed's speech.

    He makes Dave PR Cameron seem like Bertrand Russell ; buzzword bingo.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    Financier said:

    RobD said:

    Plato said:

    The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.

    Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.

    Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.

    That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
    @Plato

    I agree, there is less and less genuine debate and much more posting by trolls who are only interested in point scoring, sneering at other posters, endless repetition of their previous posts and smearing anyone who stands up to them. If the moderators used a bit more of a heavy hand then there would be more genuine and fruitful debate.

    Thankfully there are some polite and respectful posters who have interesting knowledge and experience and engage in genuine debate, but they are likely to be driven away by the trolls.

    Perhaps posts by any PBer should be limited to a maximum of say 10 in any 24 hours - that may help the problem.
    Maybe we could have one day a week where people can only post positive stuff about their party with no derogatory stuff about others allowed

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Financier, not in favour of post limitations, but I do agree that there's more and more astroturf.

    Mr. K, I read the books long before the TV series came out! I very much enjoy the series (although the delayed DVD release irks me), however.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415
    Mike K, some friends of mine who live nearby a very good-looking pair of twins in their twenties, who share a house, have started referring to them as Cersei and Jamie, which is rather rude.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    Sean_F said:

    Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).

    Clearly Mr F the only sensible course of action is for conservatives of all stripes to join UKIP. :-)

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,558
    Sean_F said:

    Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).

    That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues. UKIP are no fans of the banks and the City, and although I haven't seen any figures I suspect they are not as hostile to a "mansion tax" or similar as the Tories are.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Off-topic:

    I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.

    Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.

    This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.

    How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?

    A little more on the original story at: http://www.actionforme.org.uk/get-informed/news/policy-and-campaigns/atos-pay-disability-discrimination-claim
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Jessop, that does seem bananas.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Sean_F said:

    Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).

    That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues.
    ...and many UKIP voters were not voting for policies.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sean_F said:

    Mike K, some friends of mine who live nearby a very good-looking pair of twins in their twenties, who share a house, have started referring to them as Cersei and Jamie, which is rather rude.

    After late lunch:
    I hope those twins don't understand the connotation.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Betting Post

    Backed Raikkone for the win at 4.8, hedge set up at 2.2. More detail here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/spain-pre-race.html
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    'Victory for campaigners as MOD withdraw plans'

    Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.

    Rob Gibson MSP said:

    "This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    'Victory for campaigners as MOD withdraw plans'

    Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.

    Rob Gibson MSP said:

    "This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans

    I assume that the opposition was driven by the MoD as distant landlord rather than MoD as military?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    'Victory for campaigners as MOD withdraw plans'

    Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a

    victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.

    Rob Gibson MSP said:

    "This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans


    SNP's Gibson claims victory for Cape Wrath " community ".

    The sole inhabitants of the cape are now John and Kay Ure who leased the main building in 2009.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The sole inhabitants of the cape are now John and Kay Ure who leased the main building in 2009."

    The depopulation of the Highlands being another key part of the 'Union Dividend'?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    'Victory for campaigners as MOD withdraw plans'

    Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.

    Rob Gibson MSP said:

    "This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans

    I assume that the opposition was driven by the MoD as distant landlord rather than MoD as military?
    The MoD already own 25,000 acres of Cape Wrath that's used as a bombing range. The 50 acres in question surround a lighthouse that is visited by 2000 people a year.

    I wonder how much revenue they bring to the area versus the military?

    Anyway, I'm sure the Scottish government will roll over and allow someone to build a golf club there shortly.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    edited May 2013

    Off-topic:

    I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.

    Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.

    This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.

    How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?

    A little more on the original story at: http://www.actionforme.org.uk/get-informed/news/policy-and-campaigns/atos-pay-disability-discrimination-claim

    A friend last week received a rude phone call from ATOS for failure to attend their assessment. The following day two letters arrived:-

    one criticising them for not attending the appointment.
    the other was the original appointment letter. The letter dated 26th April was for an appointment at 10am on April 26th.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,558

    "The sole inhabitants of the cape are now John and Kay Ure who leased the main building in 2009."

    The depopulation of the Highlands being another key part of the 'Union Dividend'?

    It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Now listening to Gotterdammerung on BBC Radio 3. (only second part though)
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited May 2013
    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 25,000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2013

    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 50.000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.


    In a better , saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Charles said:

    'Victory for campaigners as MOD withdraw plans'

    Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.

    Rob Gibson MSP said:

    "This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."


    http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans

    I assume that the opposition was driven by the MoD as distant landlord rather than MoD as military?
    This is absolutely stellar news; I actually posted on the problem on here a few weeks ago. Cape Wrath and the areas around it - such as Kearvaig and Sandwood Bay - are superb. Access from the east (Durness) is currently restricted for much of the time, and although the MOD denied it, the sale could have prevented all access by the public to the cape itself.

    In answer to your question, 23 square miles of the Parph is currently a NATO training area, the only place in the Northern Hemisphere where half-ton live bombs and shells can be used. It is therefore of vast use to NATO's navies and air forces. There is also extensive army use of the inland areas, meaning that all three services can perform joint operations.

    The rumoured story behind the following incident is funny and, to a layman, believable:
    A shell fired during exercises caused concern in 2002 when it landed 8 miles (13 km) off target near the mouth of Loch Eriboll and around 1 mile (1.6 km) from houses
    It is also a quite magical place. Sandwood Bay, seven miles to the south, was the location of the last sighting of a Mermaid in Britain, and also the place I discovered a whisky-fairie one night.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Wrath

    As I said, great news. I signed an on-line petition to prevent the sale. I have no great problems with the MOD using their current land, but access to the cape itself is vital.

    It's been too long since I was last up there.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    MikeK said:

    Now listening to Gotterdammerung on BBC Radio 3. (only second part though)

    You might like this

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/features/desert-island-discs/castaway/562ed690
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "In a better saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld."

    Adding genocidal impulses to the list of your finer qualities, Moniker?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @James

    Hi. I see Mark McDonald is the likely candidate in Donside. I guess it's more a move thinking about the future rather than not having anybody else to field. Except for Aberdeen Central, no other NE seat is at risk for SNP in 2016 and so a small drop in SNP's share could have put his list seat at risk.

    Labour candidate already collapsed on Day 1

    Ian Duncan got top spot in Tory Euro list.

    The Labour candidate to ranked after the 2 sitting MEP s are: Asim Khan, Derek Munn, Katrina Murray and Kirsty O’Brien.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    "In a better saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld."

    Adding genocidal impulses to the list of your finer qualities, Moniker?


    Aesthetic rather than genocidal impulses. Cumbernauld is a wart on the bonnie face of Scotland.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4519084.stm
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,558

    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 25,000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.

    Highland Council area is 6,000,000+ acres.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Andrea - it's a slightly risky tactic, because the SNP only have one remaining person on the Northeast list, and so if a list MSP from the region was to die or resign there would be no replacement.

    But there are obviously advantages to having a reasonably well-known candidate with parliamentary experience, and given the complexities of Aberdeen local politics maybe it's just as well not to be going with a councillor.

    From Mark McDonald's own point of view it's an absolute no-brainer.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413

    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 50.000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.


    In a better , saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld.

    Or maybe London and the south east. Where they site all their crap tells the story.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413

    @James

    Hi. I see Mark McDonald is the likely candidate in Donside. I guess it's more a move thinking about the future rather than not having anybody else to field. Except for Aberdeen Central, no other NE seat is at risk for SNP in 2016 and so a small drop in SNP's share could have put his list seat at risk.

    Labour candidate already collapsed on Day 1

    Ian Duncan got top spot in Tory Euro list.

    The Labour candidate to ranked after the 2 sitting MEP s are: Asim Khan, Derek Munn, Katrina Murray and Kirsty O’Brien.

    It will be a walkover
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Highland Council area is 6,000,000+ acres."

    So the Cape Wrath bombing range covers almost half of 1% of the entire region? Wow. I genuinely didn't realise it was that much.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    "In a better saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld."

    Adding genocidal impulses to the list of your finer qualities, Moniker?


    Aesthetic rather than genocidal impulses. Cumbernauld is a wart on the bonnie face of Scotland.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4519084.stm
    Good grief. The MoD would be doing everyone a favour.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Cumbernauld_Shopping_Centre_(2).jpg


  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Cumbernauld is a wart on the bonnie face of Scotland."

    On the plus side, I'm slightly further away from you here than I would be in Dumfries.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    eek said:

    Off-topic:

    I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.

    Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.

    This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.

    How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?

    A little more on the original story at: http://www.actionforme.org.uk/get-informed/news/policy-and-campaigns/atos-pay-disability-discrimination-claim

    A friend last week received a rude phone call from ATOS for failure to attend their assessment. The following day two letters arrived:-

    one criticising them for not attending the appointment.
    the other was the original appointment letter. The letter dated 26th April was for an appointment at 10am on April 26th.
    ATOS got the contract under the Labour govt of Gordon Brown.

    A typical combination of ineptness and contractual incompetence.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "ATOS got the contract under the Labour govt of Gordon Brown."

    Most of the worst things in life have the fingerprints of both Tory and New Labour on them.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 50.000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.


    In a better , saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld.

    Or maybe London and the south east. Where they site all their crap tells the story.
    Clearly they do not think much of Salisbury plain or South Dorset, both closed areas for military use in the South of England.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    "In a better saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld."

    Adding genocidal impulses to the list of your finer qualities, Moniker?


    Aesthetic rather than genocidal impulses. Cumbernauld is a wart on the bonnie face of Scotland.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4519084.stm
    Good grief. The MoD would be doing everyone a favour.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Cumbernauld_Shopping_Centre_(2).jpg


    It's a cruel quirk of fate that James Kelly , whose ancestors hail from the most gorgeous regions of Ireland , France and North America , should end up in Cumbernauld. It's no wonder he's bitter and angry.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971

    "Highland Council area is 6,000,000+ acres."

    So the Cape Wrath bombing range covers almost half of 1% of the entire region? Wow. I genuinely didn't realise it was that much.

    Everything about Cape Wrath is amazing, including the scale of the range. But AIUI the vast majority of the range is not used by the military and access is unfettered.

    I once had a conversation with an ecologist on the much more heavily-used Lulworth Ranges in Dorset (used for tank training). He actually loved the military use: only small areas were used, and the rest was very low-intensity livestock farming.

    Indeed, he actually claimed that MOD guardianship was great for the ecology, as alternative uses would have destroyed the ecology to a much greater degree. For instance, no pesticides have ever been used on the Lulworth Ranges, and there are plenty of rare flora and fauna that do not thrive elsewhere. Or so he claimed.

    However he did say that the MOD paid for ecologists to study the flora and fauna, so that might have skewed his opinion...

    A few notes on Cape Wrath's ecology at http://www.durness.org/Military Connections.htm

    If you want to know more about the history of the Cape, there is an excellent book "A light in the Wilderness" by David M. Hird that goes into it, including the building of the eponymous lighthouse.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    malcolmg said:

    "It's not Westminster that stops the Highlands being re-populated - it is local NIMBYs."

    Well, 50.000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.


    In a better , saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld.

    Or maybe London and the south east. Where they site all their crap tells the story.
    Clearly they do not think much of Salisbury plain or South Dorset, both closed areas for military use in the South of England.
    Or the ranges at Shoeburyness, Pirbright and Longmoor.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "It's a cruel quirk of fate that James Kelly , whose ancestors hail from the most gorgeous regions of Ireland , France and North America , should end up in Cumbernauld. It's no wonder he's bitter and angry."

    If I don't have the faintest idea what part of France my ancestors came from, it seems to me a relatively safe bet that you don't either, Moniker.

    Please don't fret on my account - I have a gorgeous view outside my window. A mixture of forest, farmland and sheep.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Sean_F said:

    Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).

    That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues. UKIP are no fans of the banks and the City, and although I haven't seen any figures I suspect they are not as hostile to a "mansion tax" or similar as the Tories are.

    Farage was a stockbroker. Has he denounced his former employment?

  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 664
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