That was just so crass. Guido had Obama kitchen footage...
I wonder where it went - I assume the copyright holder insisted on it being removed from YouTube - its was very amusing and used the Laurel and Hardy theme tune as background music IIRC :^ )
(and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).
I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.
Lest we forget.
Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner
David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
(and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).
I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.
Lest we forget.
Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner
David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
Vote SNP get Pound Sterling/NATO/Monarchy/English language/etc?
The Co Op story is rumbling on. This is by far the most popular comment in the UKIPograph about the story:
One of the Co-op banks major debtors is – surprise, surprise – none other than the Labour Party themselves. Of the £3,580,000 borrowed in 1999, only £189,000 has been repaid, meaning Labour still owe their troubled lender £3,391,000. Maybe they could pay them back to help them out a bit…
H/T Guido Fawkes
Will it be a case of "Brother can you spare me a dime/£3m?"
He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.
7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.
7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
Read Kellner's article. He is one of the most knowledgeable people in the country on this stuff.
Just because people trot out UNS projections day after day after day doesn't mean they are right.
As Mike S has demonstrated, the boundaries are only very slightly unfair. If Con can't get a majority with 7% lead, it's perfectly possible Lab might need a 7% lead.
He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.
7% is the lead the Tories had in 2010 that they couldnt turn into an overall majority. I find it hard to believe that 1st term incumbency is going to almost completely reverse the situation.
For the last two elections the electoral calculators under estimated the Tory seat haul significantly. Do we need 7% for a Labourite majority? Possibly. And more believable than the 1% lead.
"particularly with the prospect of Ed Miliband signing up to five more years of Euro-socialism"
What on Earth is "Euro-socialism"? Europe is dominated by the right, and has been for years. Just shows how absurdly right-wing the centre of gravity is at Westminster that anyone could say such a thing.
I did. He said that on the basis of some assumptions Labour could need a lead of 7% to get an overall majority. I dont think he was hanging his hat on that as a prediction at this stage. Based on no analysis whatsoever I find it difficult to believe that a Labour 39% - Tory 34% result wouldnt give Labour an overall majority.
ps just because the boundaries are only slightly unfair doesnt mean that the threshold for a Labour majority (or lead) isnt a lot lower than for the Tories all else being equal
For the last two elections the electoral calculators under estimated the Tory seat haul significantly.
Careful, if that's right (is it?) it may be another way of saying that an opposition gaining vote share from a government gets more seats than UNS would predict...
That said, as well as the double-incumbency issue I wonder if there's a risk of double-counting left-leaning voters who are now moving from LibDem to Lab in the polls. A lot of them may already have been voting Labour in the Con/Lab marginals where it matters.
Bit disappointed with the Vergne bet. Ironically, the Massa one (which was just plain wrong) had the hedge matched and finished ahead. So, red (even with hedging) but only by a small margin.
The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.
We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.
Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.
And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.
Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.
(and under FPTP they just hand power to the left).
I would suggest that the Cameroons find something a bit less desperate than 'vote UKIP get labour' as you are actually in a coalition with the lib dems under FPTP.
Lest we forget.
Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner
David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
I think you misunderstand me - it was a statement of fact rather than anything else.
Personally I think 'vote X, get Y' is a faintly insulting argument. People are voting X because they prefer X to you. To claim that they don't understand the likely logical outcome of their decision is implying that they are stupid and/or reckless.
Far better to figure out why they are voting X and then decide how / whether to address those concerns.
The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.
Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.
Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.
That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.
We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.
Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.
And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.
Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.
There are some snags in that analysis:
1. Marginal seats aren't necessarily packed with wavering centrists. They just happen to have similar number of voters for two parties. My seat was classic commuter belt, and I lost lots of votes to the LibDems (and some Greens) from people who believed them to be more left-wing than me.
2. By 2010, the Blair effect had disappeared, but Labour was still doing well in marginals.
3. There are a number of marginal seats where the previous MP is standing again - so there may be a single incumbency bonus for the Tory MP there, but not a double one.
4. Not all the 2010 crop have endeared themselves to their constituents - without being personal about it, some are really more interested in Westminster. That was clearly true with some Labour MPs too, but by 2010 the careerists in marginals had mostly lost already.
So yes, I'd expect the efficiency bonus to be lower, but not to disappear. Journalists propser by writing provocative arguments and predicting close races...
By the way, aren't we getting any new threads today?
Or indeed Tories lose votes in Bucks but win them in suburbia. IMO not sure the master strategy will work but a vote lost in the shires is not like one lost in suburbia. Still it makes the next election closer and more interesting. All to play for!
Afternoon all. I see there's total silence as to what UKIP actually want to do in terms of key policies.
Meanwhile, here in East Sussex the Conservative group are setting up a minority administration (they lost a net 9 seats, leaving them with 20 out of 49). This is quite interesting because the numbers are such that either a Con/LD or Con/UKIP coalition was theoretically possible, but it seems UKIP don't want to join any coalitions:
Philip Howson, the newly elected leader of the UKIP group, said: “It’s a minority council but we will support them as much as possible as long as it’s in the best interests of the people of Sussex.
“There was absolutely never any talk of a coalition.
Yes, politically and also practically, since the vast majority of UKIP's councillors will be complete novices. On the other hand, it may mean they are pretty invisible - opposition councillors have very little say under the cabinet system.
The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.
We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.
Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.
And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.
Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.
And with all the above forgetting the cuckoo in the nest, UKIP.
Afternoon all. I see there's total silence as to what UKIP actually want to do in terms of key policies.
Meanwhile, here in East Sussex the Conservative group are setting up a minority administration (they lost a net 9 seats, leaving them with 20 out of 49). This is quite interesting because the numbers are such that either a Con/LD or Con/UKIP coalition was theoretically possible, but it seems UKIP don't want to join any coalitions:
Philip Howson, the newly elected leader of the UKIP group, said: “It’s a minority council but we will support them as much as possible as long as it’s in the best interests of the people of Sussex.
“There was absolutely never any talk of a coalition.
OT I'm a teeny bit tempted to try to watch The Wire again - I gave in a few episodes into S1 - it was largely macho aggressive shouty swearing and filmed in the dark.
Whilst I can take a bit of this sort of nonsense - my boredom chip overrode and I pressed Off.
I've read reviews on IMDb that says its the BESTEST THING EVAH and ones that seemed to agree with my first impressions. It got as far as S5 so I assume it must have some merit.
Opinions welcome here. I've found the IMDb Most Recommended tables a strange beast - things I thought were mediocre/tedious have gained much higher reviews than I'd expect. I can only assume their demographic isn't mine.
Probably a bit of a late reply, but we too found The Wire hard to get into. But we persevered, and it's not at all bad. We're currently in series 3.
The characterisations aren't at all bad, for instance D'Aneglo in the first series, teaching some junior gang members how to play chess - absolute genius (warning, clip audio NSFW)
@NickPalmer re Beijing - too long since I was there to offer a sensible hotel recommendation - but I can recommend a book about Peking on the eve of the Japanese take over:
The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.
Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.
Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.
That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
I agree, there is less and less genuine debate and much more posting by trolls who are only interested in point scoring, sneering at other posters, endless repetition of their previous posts and smearing anyone who stands up to them. If the moderators used a bit more of a heavy hand then there would be more genuine and fruitful debate.
Thankfully there are some polite and respectful posters who have interesting knowledge and experience and engage in genuine debate, but they are likely to be driven away by the trolls.
Perhaps posts by any PBer should be limited to a maximum of say 10 in any 24 hours - that may help the problem.
Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
The less I read PB the more I see how pointless and silly 90% of it is, when I do.
Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.
Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.
That is because people who post here tend to be really interested in politics, and are most likely set in their ways. Trying to convince someone here of your viewpoint is probably not worthwhile (as it wont work), but actually having the debate is, IMO.
I agree, there is less and less genuine debate and much more posting by trolls who are only interested in point scoring, sneering at other posters, endless repetition of their previous posts and smearing anyone who stands up to them. If the moderators used a bit more of a heavy hand then there would be more genuine and fruitful debate.
Thankfully there are some polite and respectful posters who have interesting knowledge and experience and engage in genuine debate, but they are likely to be driven away by the trolls.
Perhaps posts by any PBer should be limited to a maximum of say 10 in any 24 hours - that may help the problem.
Maybe we could have one day a week where people can only post positive stuff about their party with no derogatory stuff about others allowed
Mike K, some friends of mine who live nearby a very good-looking pair of twins in their twenties, who share a house, have started referring to them as Cersei and Jamie, which is rather rude.
Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
Clearly Mr F the only sensible course of action is for conservatives of all stripes to join UKIP. :-)
Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues. UKIP are no fans of the banks and the City, and although I haven't seen any figures I suspect they are not as hostile to a "mansion tax" or similar as the Tories are.
I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.
Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.
This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.
How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?
Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues.
...and many UKIP voters were not voting for policies.
Mike K, some friends of mine who live nearby a very good-looking pair of twins in their twenties, who share a house, have started referring to them as Cersei and Jamie, which is rather rude.
After late lunch: I hope those twins don't understand the connotation.
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a
victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
I assume that the opposition was driven by the MoD as distant landlord rather than MoD as military?
The MoD already own 25,000 acres of Cape Wrath that's used as a bombing range. The 50 acres in question surround a lighthouse that is visited by 2000 people a year.
I wonder how much revenue they bring to the area versus the military?
Anyway, I'm sure the Scottish government will roll over and allow someone to build a golf club there shortly.
I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.
Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.
This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.
How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?
A friend last week received a rude phone call from ATOS for failure to attend their assessment. The following day two letters arrived:-
one criticising them for not attending the appointment. the other was the original appointment letter. The letter dated 26th April was for an appointment at 10am on April 26th.
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
I assume that the opposition was driven by the MoD as distant landlord rather than MoD as military?
This is absolutely stellar news; I actually posted on the problem on here a few weeks ago. Cape Wrath and the areas around it - such as Kearvaig and Sandwood Bay - are superb. Access from the east (Durness) is currently restricted for much of the time, and although the MOD denied it, the sale could have prevented all access by the public to the cape itself.
In answer to your question, 23 square miles of the Parph is currently a NATO training area, the only place in the Northern Hemisphere where half-ton live bombs and shells can be used. It is therefore of vast use to NATO's navies and air forces. There is also extensive army use of the inland areas, meaning that all three services can perform joint operations.
The rumoured story behind the following incident is funny and, to a layman, believable:
A shell fired during exercises caused concern in 2002 when it landed 8 miles (13 km) off target near the mouth of Loch Eriboll and around 1 mile (1.6 km) from houses
It is also a quite magical place. Sandwood Bay, seven miles to the south, was the location of the last sighting of a Mermaid in Britain, and also the place I discovered a whisky-fairie one night.
As I said, great news. I signed an on-line petition to prevent the sale. I have no great problems with the MOD using their current land, but access to the cape itself is vital.
Hi. I see Mark McDonald is the likely candidate in Donside. I guess it's more a move thinking about the future rather than not having anybody else to field. Except for Aberdeen Central, no other NE seat is at risk for SNP in 2016 and so a small drop in SNP's share could have put his list seat at risk.
Labour candidate already collapsed on Day 1
Ian Duncan got top spot in Tory Euro list.
The Labour candidate to ranked after the 2 sitting MEP s are: Asim Khan, Derek Munn, Katrina Murray and Kirsty O’Brien.
Andrea - it's a slightly risky tactic, because the SNP only have one remaining person on the Northeast list, and so if a list MSP from the region was to die or resign there would be no replacement.
But there are obviously advantages to having a reasonably well-known candidate with parliamentary experience, and given the complexities of Aberdeen local politics maybe it's just as well not to be going with a councillor.
From Mark McDonald's own point of view it's an absolute no-brainer.
Hi. I see Mark McDonald is the likely candidate in Donside. I guess it's more a move thinking about the future rather than not having anybody else to field. Except for Aberdeen Central, no other NE seat is at risk for SNP in 2016 and so a small drop in SNP's share could have put his list seat at risk.
Labour candidate already collapsed on Day 1
Ian Duncan got top spot in Tory Euro list.
The Labour candidate to ranked after the 2 sitting MEP s are: Asim Khan, Derek Munn, Katrina Murray and Kirsty O’Brien.
I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.
Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.
This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.
How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?
A friend last week received a rude phone call from ATOS for failure to attend their assessment. The following day two letters arrived:-
one criticising them for not attending the appointment. the other was the original appointment letter. The letter dated 26th April was for an appointment at 10am on April 26th.
ATOS got the contract under the Labour govt of Gordon Brown.
A typical combination of ineptness and contractual incompetence.
It's a cruel quirk of fate that James Kelly , whose ancestors hail from the most gorgeous regions of Ireland , France and North America , should end up in Cumbernauld. It's no wonder he's bitter and angry.
So the Cape Wrath bombing range covers almost half of 1% of the entire region? Wow. I genuinely didn't realise it was that much.
Everything about Cape Wrath is amazing, including the scale of the range. But AIUI the vast majority of the range is not used by the military and access is unfettered.
I once had a conversation with an ecologist on the much more heavily-used Lulworth Ranges in Dorset (used for tank training). He actually loved the military use: only small areas were used, and the rest was very low-intensity livestock farming.
Indeed, he actually claimed that MOD guardianship was great for the ecology, as alternative uses would have destroyed the ecology to a much greater degree. For instance, no pesticides have ever been used on the Lulworth Ranges, and there are plenty of rare flora and fauna that do not thrive elsewhere. Or so he claimed.
However he did say that the MOD paid for ecologists to study the flora and fauna, so that might have skewed his opinion...
If you want to know more about the history of the Cape, there is an excellent book "A light in the Wilderness" by David M. Hird that goes into it, including the building of the eponymous lighthouse.
"It's a cruel quirk of fate that James Kelly , whose ancestors hail from the most gorgeous regions of Ireland , France and North America , should end up in Cumbernauld. It's no wonder he's bitter and angry."
If I don't have the faintest idea what part of France my ancestors came from, it seems to me a relatively safe bet that you don't either, Moniker.
Please don't fret on my account - I have a gorgeous view outside my window. A mixture of forest, farmland and sheep.
Southam, it's interesting that UKIP can reach voters that the Conservatives can't, despite being to the right of the Conservatives (and the same is true of new vs older right wing parties in Europe).
That's because UKIP aren't to the right of the Conservatives on all issues. UKIP are no fans of the banks and the City, and although I haven't seen any figures I suspect they are not as hostile to a "mansion tax" or similar as the Tories are.
Farage was a stockbroker. Has he denounced his former employment?
Comments
No, Dave never chased Obama through a kitchen.
NewsSense™, just making shit up.
Note to creepy stalker, this is not a retweet...
I wonder where it went - I assume the copyright holder insisted on it being removed from YouTube - its was very amusing and used the Laurel and Hardy theme tune as background music IIRC :^ )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgG8nX58gnA
Lest we forget. Not quite how things turned out, was it? ;^ )
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
Vote SNP get Pound Sterling/NATO/Monarchy/English language/etc?
Dave been 'marker-penning' the Jag, and chucking phones and printers at the Garden Girls?
What are you pretending to be today Sunny? A tory or a Kipper?
One thing we know for certain is that you are a proud trainspotter and as such this should brighten your day.
For those unaware of it the most 'enthusiastic' trainpotters become full fledged "foamers".
Here's one to gladden Sunny's heart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqvwnxgxazY
One of the Co-op banks major debtors is – surprise, surprise – none other than the Labour Party themselves. Of the £3,580,000 borrowed in 1999, only £189,000 has been repaid, meaning Labour still owe their troubled lender £3,391,000. Maybe they could pay them back to help them out a bit…
H/T Guido Fawkes
Will it be a case of "Brother can you spare me a dime/£3m?"
My avatar's still purple!
He suggests Lab may need a 7 PER CENT vote lead to get a majority - far, far higher than the 1% needed on UNS.
And this isn't some wild hypothetical - it is the lead required if the first term MP incumbency bonus is in line with past experience.
http://labourmajority.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Majority-Rules1.pdf
Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring.
Ho hum. I'll pop by as ever - but can't see much point otherwise until we're verging on the main elections.
Just because people trot out UNS projections day after day after day doesn't mean they are right.
As Mike S has demonstrated, the boundaries are only very slightly unfair. If Con can't get a majority with 7% lead, it's perfectly possible Lab might need a 7% lead.
Kellner has done the analysis - read the article.
What on Earth is "Euro-socialism"? Europe is dominated by the right, and has been for years. Just shows how absurdly right-wing the centre of gravity is at Westminster that anyone could say such a thing.
Largely partisan nonsense and trolling - and without even the ability to even agree with an opinion makes its all rather vacuum point-scoring."
As someone once said, "unspoofable".
@JohnRentoul: Now EdM is not "doing politics differently", he is "reinventing the old-fashioned town meeting, the way politics used to be done".
Forward, to the past!!
ps just because the boundaries are only slightly unfair doesnt mean that the threshold for a Labour majority (or lead) isnt a lot lower than for the Tories all else being equal
That said, as well as the double-incumbency issue I wonder if there's a risk of double-counting left-leaning voters who are now moving from LibDem to Lab in the polls. A lot of them may already have been voting Labour in the Con/Lab marginals where it matters.
Surely Ed (SuperHero) didn't need his spinner to lead applause for the greatest speech ever made by SuperHero Ed , ever?
The reason Labour's vote was so efficient in 2001/2005 was because Tony Blair got Tory voters. He lost left wing Lab voters (who didn't turnout in safe seats) but got the key Tory voters in marginals. Hence a massively efficient votes to seats conversion.
We are now reverting to a more "normal" or "traditional" vote distribution and EdM will reinforce this. He will get back left wing Lab voters in safe seats (who will be more determined to vote to get the Tories out). But he'll win far fewer Tory voters in marginals.
Hence the Labour efficiency bonus will largely disappear. Labour will still have some advantage but much less than before.
And then to all the above you add the MP double incumbency bonus.
Result: You end up with numbers roughly in line with Kellner.
It seems we have our latest version of the "tactical unwind" debate to keep us busy until 2015
If you don't want people to vote for the kippers it might just be a better idea to tell the voters exactly how and why you think the tories policies are better than theirs. It's an outlandish thought I know.
I think you misunderstand me - it was a statement of fact rather than anything else.
Personally I think 'vote X, get Y' is a faintly insulting argument. People are voting X because they prefer X to you. To claim that they don't understand the likely logical outcome of their decision is implying that they are stupid and/or reckless.
Far better to figure out why they are voting X and then decide how / whether to address those concerns.
It cant have been that good - there havent been hundreds of posts about what a game changer it was like we had after Dave's euro speech.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/11/ed-miliband-europe-referendum-weak-cameron-_n_3258785.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
1. Marginal seats aren't necessarily packed with wavering centrists. They just happen to have similar number of voters for two parties. My seat was classic commuter belt, and I lost lots of votes to the LibDems (and some Greens) from people who believed them to be more left-wing than me.
2. By 2010, the Blair effect had disappeared, but Labour was still doing well in marginals.
3. There are a number of marginal seats where the previous MP is standing again - so there may be a single incumbency bonus for the Tory MP there, but not a double one.
4. Not all the 2010 crop have endeared themselves to their constituents - without being personal about it, some are really more interested in Westminster. That was clearly true with some Labour MPs too, but by 2010 the careerists in marginals had mostly lost already.
So yes, I'd expect the efficiency bonus to be lower, but not to disappear. Journalists propser by writing provocative arguments and predicting close races...
By the way, aren't we getting any new threads today?
Meanwhile, here in East Sussex the Conservative group are setting up a minority administration (they lost a net 9 seats, leaving them with 20 out of 49). This is quite interesting because the numbers are such that either a Con/LD or Con/UKIP coalition was theoretically possible, but it seems UKIP don't want to join any coalitions:
Philip Howson, the newly elected leader of the UKIP group, said: “It’s a minority council but we will support them as much as possible as long as it’s in the best interests of the people of Sussex.
“There was absolutely never any talk of a coalition.
"The message from head office is ‘no deals’.”
http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10412425.Conservatives_set_to_keep_control_of_East_Sussex_County_Council/
The characterisations aren't at all bad, for instance D'Aneglo in the first series, teaching some junior gang members how to play chess - absolute genius (warning, clip audio NSFW)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1HUlTKvDUI
It's not the best thing ever, but it's worth watching IMHO.
We find it helps to have subtitles on so we can understand what's being said at times. ;-)
http://us.midnightinpeking.com/
I agree, there is less and less genuine debate and much more posting by trolls who are only interested in point scoring, sneering at other posters, endless repetition of their previous posts and smearing anyone who stands up to them. If the moderators used a bit more of a heavy hand then there would be more genuine and fruitful debate.
Thankfully there are some polite and respectful posters who have interesting knowledge and experience and engage in genuine debate, but they are likely to be driven away by the trolls.
Perhaps posts by any PBer should be limited to a maximum of say 10 in any 24 hours - that may help the problem.
EDIT
Sorry just the warm-up programme - kick off's at 5.15!
BTW have you read Game of Thrones and not just seen the series on TV?
He makes Dave PR Cameron seem like Bertrand Russell ; buzzword bingo.
Mr. K, I read the books long before the TV series came out! I very much enjoy the series (although the delayed DVD release irks me), however.
I'm not sure if most of us regularly read Private Eye, but the latest issue has a small article about ATOS. I won't reproduce it in full (it's on page 9), but the bare facts are, if true, astounding.
Allegedly, according to records kept by the DWP, 25 ATOS assessment centres lack wheelchair access, 62 have no parking or disabled parking facilities, and 33 have no public transport facilities nearby.
This came to light after a disabled man won £2000 plus costs in an out of court settlement after the assessment centre he was called to attend was inaccessible to many disabled people.
How can you have a disability assessment centre that has no wheelchair access?
A little more on the original story at: http://www.actionforme.org.uk/get-informed/news/policy-and-campaigns/atos-pay-disability-discrimination-claim
I hope those twins don't understand the connotation.
Betting PostBacked Raikkone for the win at 4.8, hedge set up at 2.2. More detail here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/spain-pre-race.html
Welcoming reports that the MoD have withdrawn their plans to take over 50 acres of land at Scotland’s iconic Cape Wrath for military activity – SNP MSP Rob Gibson said this was a victory for the community who have stood up to the MoD and put forward alternative plans to take over the land for the community.
Rob Gibson MSP said:
"This is a fantastic victory for the people of Durness and across the surrounding area of the North West Highlands. It shows the MOD can no longer try and get away with running roughshod over the people and land of rural Scotland."
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2013/may/victory-campaigners-mod-withdraw-plans
SNP's Gibson claims victory for Cape Wrath " community ".
The sole inhabitants of the cape are now John and Kay Ure who leased the main building in 2009.
The depopulation of the Highlands being another key part of the 'Union Dividend'?
I wonder how much revenue they bring to the area versus the military?
Anyway, I'm sure the Scottish government will roll over and allow someone to build a golf club there shortly.
one criticising them for not attending the appointment.
the other was the original appointment letter. The letter dated 26th April was for an appointment at 10am on April 26th.
Well, 25,000 acres worth of bombing range do tend to put a dampener on alternative uses of the land.
In a better , saner world the MoD would move it's bombing range south to improve Cumbernauld.
In answer to your question, 23 square miles of the Parph is currently a NATO training area, the only place in the Northern Hemisphere where half-ton live bombs and shells can be used. It is therefore of vast use to NATO's navies and air forces. There is also extensive army use of the inland areas, meaning that all three services can perform joint operations.
The rumoured story behind the following incident is funny and, to a layman, believable: It is also a quite magical place. Sandwood Bay, seven miles to the south, was the location of the last sighting of a Mermaid in Britain, and also the place I discovered a whisky-fairie one night.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Wrath
As I said, great news. I signed an on-line petition to prevent the sale. I have no great problems with the MOD using their current land, but access to the cape itself is vital.
It's been too long since I was last up there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/features/desert-island-discs/castaway/562ed690
Adding genocidal impulses to the list of your finer qualities, Moniker?
Hi. I see Mark McDonald is the likely candidate in Donside. I guess it's more a move thinking about the future rather than not having anybody else to field. Except for Aberdeen Central, no other NE seat is at risk for SNP in 2016 and so a small drop in SNP's share could have put his list seat at risk.
Labour candidate already collapsed on Day 1
Ian Duncan got top spot in Tory Euro list.
The Labour candidate to ranked after the 2 sitting MEP s are: Asim Khan, Derek Munn, Katrina Murray and Kirsty O’Brien.
Aesthetic rather than genocidal impulses. Cumbernauld is a wart on the bonnie face of Scotland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/4519084.stm
But there are obviously advantages to having a reasonably well-known candidate with parliamentary experience, and given the complexities of Aberdeen local politics maybe it's just as well not to be going with a councillor.
From Mark McDonald's own point of view it's an absolute no-brainer.
So the Cape Wrath bombing range covers almost half of 1% of the entire region? Wow. I genuinely didn't realise it was that much.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Cumbernauld_Shopping_Centre_(2).jpg
On the plus side, I'm slightly further away from you here than I would be in Dumfries.
A typical combination of ineptness and contractual incompetence.
Most of the worst things in life have the fingerprints of both Tory and New Labour on them.
I once had a conversation with an ecologist on the much more heavily-used Lulworth Ranges in Dorset (used for tank training). He actually loved the military use: only small areas were used, and the rest was very low-intensity livestock farming.
Indeed, he actually claimed that MOD guardianship was great for the ecology, as alternative uses would have destroyed the ecology to a much greater degree. For instance, no pesticides have ever been used on the Lulworth Ranges, and there are plenty of rare flora and fauna that do not thrive elsewhere. Or so he claimed.
However he did say that the MOD paid for ecologists to study the flora and fauna, so that might have skewed his opinion...
A few notes on Cape Wrath's ecology at http://www.durness.org/Military Connections.htm
If you want to know more about the history of the Cape, there is an excellent book "A light in the Wilderness" by David M. Hird that goes into it, including the building of the eponymous lighthouse.
If I don't have the faintest idea what part of France my ancestors came from, it seems to me a relatively safe bet that you don't either, Moniker.
Please don't fret on my account - I have a gorgeous view outside my window. A mixture of forest, farmland and sheep.