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The Conservative Party is one of the oldest and most successful political parties across the world. It is so partly because it has had in the past displayed a surprisingly flexible approach in adapting to defeat, and partly because it has ensured it dominated the political field on the centre-right, either by eliminating or allying with rivals. So can it do so against in response to the rise of U…
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Wishful thinking i'm afraid. UKIP is full of people that you just can't reason with. Take immigration. London - where most immigrants head - has become the worlds best city. If only the rest of the UK had these hard working people. We could may be more like China, a successful economy.
Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future..... UKIP voters. The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country,
Yup the right won't realign until the right deal with its bunch of never never land idiots.
Something PB Tory's just don't understand.
SDP?
Will if UKIP win any MPs play a part in how things turn out. I'd still think they won't manage it, and might the bubble burst immediately if they win nothing despite all the noise and support they had, out of disappointment, and would a couple of MPs being present manage to sustain it longer?
Hard to argue that leadership could be decided based on policy on EU withdrawal, given being too pro-europe was already a concern in the past in such contests I believe, it not critical.
Seems a bit harsh to exile people just for being arseholes
The Tory party could ditch Cameron and move towards UKIP first, but they'd have to go well to the right of where Willam Hague positioned them, and the constituency for that is worth 30% tops.
Con+LD+Ind to run Lincolnshire
Con got the support of 3 Independents to run Oxfordshire.
Industrial scale child abuse covered up for years by the political class. Good to see the BBC very very slowly being forced by the scale of the problem into giving this issue 1% of the airtime they enthusiastically gave to the Catholic priests.
And still not one word from any member of the political class or any kind of inquiry into how this was covered up for years.
"The court was told one of the other victims was regularly sold for sex to workers at two Telford restaurants and a Wellington fish and chip shop, as well as to associates of the two brothers."
I wonder if those men were in this country and working illegally and sending their money home hence the exponential explosion in the demand for virtually free prostitution which can only be supplied through exploiting children.
People are just grumpy, Labour are not providing an outlet for that grumpiness, and the LibDems can't do because they are in government. UKIP's voters on the 2nd May, and in Eastleigh, were by no means necessarily to the right of the Conservative Party. A lot of them just wanted to give the establishment a kick, and were quite explicit about this.
No realignment, or change of leadership, can alter the basic facts of life, and it is those that people are grumpy about.
The only question is whether they'll cut off their noses to spite their faces in May 2015. If so, we'll all soon have much better reason to be grumpy.
Meanwhile, it really does look as though the economy is improving.
What might be interesting is if UKIP's rise drives down the Conservatives' numbers to the point that the LDs see a short term electoral advantage in forcing a GE.
Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
Chris Christie (R) 41%
Chris Christie (R) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 40%
Cleveland Police has agreed to pay £550,000 in damages after prominent defence lawyer James Watson was falsely imprisoned, BBC Newsnight has learned.
...
The force admits falsely imprisoning Mr Watson and his family when the lawyer was arrested in 2009, wrongful interference with his belongings and trespass.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22452157
David Herdson is barking up the wrong tree this time. UKIP as a party and as a force is here to stay. It will, to put it bluntly, stay as an independent party, free of any tory links or grand alliances. I believe that if Nigel Farage even proposed a minor pact with the blues, over half the present membership of UKIP would leave: chick, chuck! So against this proposition happening are the majority, that except for local arrangements, it's a non starter.
Indeed the desire of UKIP is to supplant the Tories as the leading party of the liberal right.
Everything, even political parties have a life span. There is no doubt now that after 80 years of first, appeasement to Germany, Then many in the party wanting to surrender to Hitler, (saved only by Churchills bravery and stubbornness), then after the war, surrendering to social democracy, and then the final surrender, to the common market; that the conservatives have run their course.
The Blues are a decaying party, they are dying bit by little bit.
Except they don't apply at all. The North Wales case is on its 4th or 5th inquiry. The industrial scale child abuse that was going on out in plain sight all over the country and covered up for years hasn't even a whisper of one.
The only similarity between the two cases is political resistance. The various inquiries into North wales were borked because they led back to a few MPs. An inquiry into the cover-up of the industrial scale child abuse called grooming would lead back to 30-40 Labour constituencies.
The biggest barrier to a reunification of the right is the very nature of the Conservative Party.
OK - how about some serious policy answers then. The following would be good places to start:
(1) Is it, or is it not, the policy of the UKIP that the UK should stay in the EEA? Yes or no? This is a pretty basic question for a party which advocates leaving the EU, so presumably there's a well-argued paper somewhere which gives us the answer.
(2) Is it, or is it not, the policy of UKIP to have a flat tax rate incorporating National Insurance?
(3) UKIP's aspirations appear to be both to reduce taxes and to reduce borrowing, whilst increasing spending on defence. Sounds great. How would UKIP manage this?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/telegram/100215993/after-the-earthquake-is-dave-dancing-to-ukips-tune/
Perhaps you don't want an In/Out referendum. That is the only possible explanation.
http://order-order.com/2013/05/10/des-lynam-endorses-ukip/
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2011/10/the-79-conservative-mps-who-voted-for-a-referendum.html
Edit: Anyway, I'm off the bed. I look forward to reading the definitive answers to my questions in the morning.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/25/mp-voted-for-eu-referendum
The conservative party is now Labour - desperate to hang on to gains made. This also explains why they are doing better with the women's vote - traditionally more conservative with a small "c" (Tim please note). Now Labour is even claiming to be a "One Nation" party - how conservative is that. It is no longer the party of the poor fighting the rich - it can't be if it is for "One Nation".
All the new ideas are on the right. The right wing now has the parties of change. Hence they are more divided - all the ideas are on the right. The argument is not whether we are a left wing or a right wing country - only at what speed do we become a right wing country.
It would be better if Labour and Liberal Democrats embraced this, as I would prefer right wing policies to be enacted by them rather than the Tories.
This is a good article and pretty much what I have been saying for a long time now. A strong UKIP vote in the next election makes it likely the next leader will support withdrawal. Now that big beasts from Lawson to Healey have backed the position, it can no longer be seen as extreme, which makes it more likely still. I also imagine that the next government will have a mandate that is very wide, but not deep at all, and is likely to disappoint centrists and the Left alike. 2020 will be a very interesting election, but it could well be the one that sees the first ever UK government that advocates leaving the EU.
I think they are displaying a remarkably high degree of ideological certainty and inflexibility. You just have to consider the way in which Thatcher was talked about recently.
I don't know how this quibble affects the rest of your analysis, but I thought it was worth raising.
"The biggest division would be the question of the EU but the Conservative Party is now heavily EU-phobic and while that might not be obvious at parliamentary level it’s more openly so in the voluntary party. Were UKIP to take, say, 10%+ in the 2015 election, that would be taken as a green light by many to advocate EU withdrawal (irrespective of whether that was really the factor that had pushed voters that way). It is far from unrealistic to believe that adopting such a policy could be decisive for a leadership contender"
As was pointed out quite some time ago. When Cammie couldn't win a majority there were quite a few tories who immediately pointed at the UKIP 3.1% and said that had been enough to cause crucial losses in marginals and cost the majority. Any figure above that will cause the precise same voices to be joined by all those who have moved OUTwards since the Eurocrisis. OUT is going to be at or near the top of any future leadership battle.
"With the EU question resolved "
That makes it sound relatively simple when the truth is such a battle concentrated on IN or OUT has the power to split the tories and cause carnage that would make all previous Europe splits look tame in comparison. BOO tories will not have it all their own way because so many in the leadership and party heirarchy (including funders) are not going to give up without a fight. BOO might well hold sway in the tory membership and party as a whole but it is far from assured that they can get a majority of MPs onside.
If UKIP continues to gather momentum it has an opportunity to rebuild the Thatcher coalition between the aspirational working class and business, but it will need to become much more self-assured in advocating small state liberal economic policies.
The Cameroon spinners could of course revert to saying the next election is only a choice between Cammie and little Ed. That Cammie will be saying so after being in coalition with the lib dems will obviously be the source of much hilarity, but they can still try. I believe this is sincere. Cameroons really don't have a clue why the tory right are so fiercely Eurosceptic and it comes as a genuine surprise to them that they are. Portillo confirmed this when he recounted that when he had told those around Cameron that he supported OUT their response was shock and disbelief. The leadership has now spent years insulated from the reality that Euroscepticism was increasingly hardening into BOO. Clear warning signs like EU rebellions were simply put down to tory MPs being grumpy and not happy with Cammie anyway.
Cammie still has the numbers on his side however. Current Eurosceptics may well be far more inclined to BOO but they also prefer posturing to toppling a leader. Cammie can still take advantage of their innate gullibility and spin them ever more nonsense on his Cast Iron referendum and they will just have to swallow it, no matter how preposterous.
French academia in war of words over plan to teach in English
Socialist ministers accused of sabotaging French language by relaxing ban on English being used in French universities
Just like Boris I'm a Conservative who fully welcomes migration. Those who wish to come here and work are not the problem, those born and bred here who think living a lifetime on benefits is normal are the problem.
More migrants. Less socialism.
If the Conservatives turned anti-immigration they'd lose my membership and my vote. Its not just the likes of Boris and I, personally I know many right-wing economically Conservatives in business who value hard-working immigrants and their contributions to society just the same too.
This is the problem with trying to get unity by giving concessions to the right. It doesn't matter how far you go, there's always another position further to the right.
Just been VI'd by You Gov.
Also a load of questions on energy policy, carbon capture and green taxes etc.
What a week chez Jack W !!
Firstly I had to derail the attempts of Man Utd to prevail upon me to take over from Sir Alex. Tempting as it was to have a Jacobite in charge of Manchester for the first time since 1745, I had to point out that having another elderly titled Scot in charge for another 26 years might be a wee bit too much !!
Next I had a most unpleasant experience in the newly opened Harpenden library in casually coming across biographies of Paddy Ashdown and the history of the LibDems .... After a fit of the vapours I was forced to recover at a local hostelry for several hours !!
And finally I have grave concerns for the health of Mrs Jack W after she returned from some expected retail therapy in Bond Street without a new pair of shoes to her name !! .... A most disturbing trend - a bit like finding your favourite dog no longer fetches small hedgehogs into the home with such a sense of pride !!
To bring some sense of normality to proceedings I shall be issuing the latest ARSE 2015 GE Projection a little later.
If you start with 1000 UKIP votes in a Con/L*b marginal, you assume maybe 400 would otherwise have voted Con, 200 L*b and 400 other or none, so UKIP's presence has only meant net -200 for Con, or 20% of their total. You can play with those numbers and plug in different assumptions, but even in the most extreme case you probably need the UKIP vote to be double the size of the majority before you start thinking they may have cost Con the seat.
I know ..... been there already.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/10/uk-co-op-bank-ceo-idUKBRE94906U20130510
How long can the Silence of The Eds last?
Tories have always been an uneasy coalition of factions on the right - this time Cameron isn't doing enough to balance them and he has been caught wanting.
Mad Nad has always been a couple of Ukip policies short of a manifesto but this gay marriage malarkey is weird. If she doesn't want gay marriage then she simply shouldn't marry a lesbian !!
"Truth is this country is full of lazy half wits that are scared of the future.....
The Tories should represent people that are pro gay marriage simply because WHY THE HELL NOT. And they should support the importation of hard working Romanians and support throwing out the useless lazy bigoted homophobes to some other country"
I'm not sure what the evidence is that Romanian are less homophobic than the British.
I suspect IoS only wants to apply his exile policy to the White British.
Orwell on the British Left's contempt for Britain and its people;
" In left-wing circles it is always felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of standing to attention during 'God save the King' than of stealing from a poor box. All through the critical years ( prior to WW 2 ) many left-wingers were chipping away at English morale, trying to spread an outlook that was sometimes squashily pacifist, sometimes violently pro-Russian, but always anti-British. It is questionable how much effect this had, but it certainly had some. "
F1: Horner claiming there are no dark clouds over Red Bull is about as convincing as the Iraqi Information Minister:
http://www.formula1.com/news/interviews/2013/5/14538.html
IOS wants to throw out of the country large numbers of people who live in Hackney, Haringay, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark and Tower Hamlets.
Many being immigrants and the children and grandchildren of immigrants. Still it should leave some more room for the next lot of immigrants which IOS calls for, though I would hope the next lot would be selected more carefully. No Muslims or African Christians for one thing if IOS wants homophobes banned.
My Dear JackW, No one needs to travel in person to Bond Street these days. Ordering for the jolly jacobite is done on the internet these days. Or are the secrets of the latest ARSE prediction so sensitive, that you've locked away the tartan lap-top from Mrs JackW?
Horner: "And to say, ‘this one, yes’ and, ‘this one, no’ was never Sebastian’s style, to dictate, ‘I must have this or that’."
*cough* The whole world heard Vettel say on the radio that Webber was 'too slow' and to get him to move out of the way.
The last answer's the most telling:
"Q: Any dream result?
CH: A one-two - and no aggro!"
Horner's an incredibly weak team principal. Vettel ignored him blatantly and publicly and suffered no penalty. That may be due to Marko getting in the way, but it's still pretty feeble.
This could have an impact down the line on the title race. It depends whether Webber wants to stay at Red Bull or not. If he doesn't and a title rival (Alonso/Raikkonen) is breathing down his neck he might just let them by.
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Briturn of the Jedi - Star Wars is coming back to Britain. http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4923331/New-Star-Wars-movies-to-be-made-in-the-UK-after-Chancellor-meets-with-franchise-owners-Lucasfilm.html
1992: 76%
1997: 74%
2001: 73%
2005: 68%
2010: 65%
Looks like the voters are ready for four party politics.
I must lack his sharp eye for such things as I couldn't see the vast improvement which caused it:
2010Q1 -7.462bn
2011Q1 -3.934bn
2012Q2 -7.889bn
2013Q1 -9.067bn
Perhaps he could say whether he expects a monthly trade surplus before May 2015 ?
It would be somewhat embarrassing for the government not to manage at least one month's trade surplus over a whole five years when its stated economic aims were to end the budget deficit and rebalance the economy.
Now I come to think of it, the present situation's different not only due to the Coalition but also because there's been a more gradual return of the Liberals (as Lib Dems, alas). It'll be interesting to see whether UKIP also increases gradually or has more substantial gains like they enjoyed in the locals.
Without power (or the promise of power) the Tories are nothing.
http://unlockdemocracy.org.uk/blog/entry/donor-of-the-week-the-co-operative-group
Loans or donations from Co-Op.
Ethical Banking model Ed M was proposing looks as if it is well and truly screwed. Was it as predatory as all the others, or just plain incompetent?
However, given Balls' pathetic whining when he completely buggered up his Commons response to Osborne (Autumn Statement, I think) one might suspect that he'd be alright until he got struck, at which point he'd cry about the nasty man hitting him.
...because he doesn't think they will win outright ...
Voting UKIP is a concious and deliberate act---nobody votes UKIP 'because his father always did', or 'because he always has'.
Often, PB is in a bubble, albeit usually a slightly different one from Westminster. But AFA UKIP is concerned, the uncomprehending and dismissive attitude is similar And while that continues, and our political 'betters' claim to know what is good for us, UKIP will continue to attract voters.
Gay marriage is a case in point. How has campaigning against it become UKIP party policy? Was this through focus groups, or from private polling evidence? Or was from listening to people's concerns on the streets?
UKIP does not want to treat voters with with contempt, and is happy to reflect their attiutdes on a range of social issues. You don't want a wind farm next door to you, or on your horizon? Who listens to that worry? UKIP voters are as concerned about the enviroment as any other subset of the population. They are just as willing to make personal sacrifices. Equally, they are not so dim that they can't see that these 'renewables' represent poor value for money. They want neither British industry nor British pensioners to be disadvataged by significantly increased electricity costs, solely to meet some external and artificial 'clean energy target'.
I'll get my blazer.
My dear old thing, you may wish to order multiple copies of Farage's "My Life As An Ordinary Millionaire" and other Ukip bestsellers over the inter web whilst scratching your ARSE and chomping on jam sandwiches but Mrs Jack W prefers the delight of the retail chase and then some light luncheon refreshment at the Connaught, Savoy or Le Gavroche.
To each their own .... as they say and do in some parts of rural Norfolk !!
Ed, the Superhero ...
Reflecting attitudes on a range of social issues is the very definition of treating voters with contempt if they can't actually be delivered
Did anyone ask Diane Abbott?