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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Miliband’s Achilles’ heel: those who backed Brown

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  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Blair, the man you regard as Britain's classiest PM, set the gold standard for vacuity and negligence;

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706941/He-Middle-East-not-UK-Peace-envoy-Tony-Blair-blasted-throwing-surprise-birthday-party-wife-Cheries-60th-6million-mansion-Gaza-death-toll-passes-1-000.html
    Don’t begrudge Cherie celebrating her 60th, just baffled by the guest list of tacky celebs etc.

    As for the middle east peace envoy, words fail me.
  • The voters of Uxbridge & South Ruislip welcome the prospect of Boris Johnson as their next MP, according to my latest poll. My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would vote for in a general election tomorrow, 42 per cent named the Conservatives, 28 per cent Labour and 19 per cent UKIP: a 14-point Tory lead.

    But when asked how they would vote if Boris Johnson were their Conservative candidate, the margin extended to 29 points: the Tory share grew by ten points to 52 per cent, with Labour down five to 23 per cent and UKIP down three to 16 per cent.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/lord-ashcroft-uxbridge-backs-boris-but-local-voters-divided-on-being-both-mp-and-mayor.html
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    I agree with David up to a point. I cannot see a positive case for voting Labour at the moment. The only reason to do so would be to keep out a Tory. And if you are in a seat where the Tories are guaranteed to win or are definitely not going to win, why bother? However, I would expect that most traditional Labour voters will, in the end, go to the polls in the numbers they did last time. Throw in the red Liberals and we are going to see a Labour vote of up to around 35% - but certainly no more. In Labour areas UKIP's best chance is among those who gave up on Labour prior to 2010, but as they are people who probably have not voted for a while they may be tricky to get out on the day, especially when resources are stretched. I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with. One that appeals to traditional Labour voters may not sit easily with UKIP's libertarian, Thatcherite leadership or their disaffected Tory followers. You can only go so far with social conservatism in my view.

    Apart from Southam's second sentence, I'd agree with his comments more or less.

    One thing most PBers are also not taking into account.partly because most don't suffer it, is the massive reduction in living standards for the low waged, in the public sector certainly but also private. The BoE's projection to halve [ where were they all this time ? ] expected wage growth rate shows people are really suffering. *ankers maybe raking in, but the poor sods at the bottom half are suffering. They won't be voting Tory, I can assure you and, on the day, will come out and vote anti Tory. UKIP will get some of those votes.

    This will be the first election in decades when people will be worse off than 5 years ago. THanks to austerity.
    Thanks to the people who made austerity essential!, and polling suggests that most still blame the Brown government, and his acolyte Balls.

    And when we look at France or at Japan, where we see a 1.7% contraction in GDP last quarter, we see no real alternative to living within our means. Borrowing for stimulus is an epic fail.
    I find your logic strange. We are only talking about people who voted Brown / Labour in 2010. Then, in the aftermath of the biggest credit crunch the world had seen for 60 years and all the Tory propaganda, they still voted Labour. Now, five years later, they will blame Labour ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Previous topic: UKIP smashed to a pulp in Lambeth.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Blair, the man you regard as Britain's classiest PM, set the gold standard for vacuity and negligence;

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706941/He-Middle-East-not-UK-Peace-envoy-Tony-Blair-blasted-throwing-surprise-birthday-party-wife-Cheries-60th-6million-mansion-Gaza-death-toll-passes-1-000.html
    Don’t begrudge Cherie celebrating her 60th, just baffled by the guest list of tacky celebs etc.

    As for the middle east peace envoy, words fail me.
    Peace envoy ? The bas**** is the biggest warmonger of them all. Netayahunu's friend. Criminals both.
  • Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Blair, the man you regard as Britain's classiest PM, set the gold standard for vacuity and negligence;

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706941/He-Middle-East-not-UK-Peace-envoy-Tony-Blair-blasted-throwing-surprise-birthday-party-wife-Cheries-60th-6million-mansion-Gaza-death-toll-passes-1-000.html
    Don’t begrudge Cherie celebrating her 60th, just baffled by the guest list of tacky celebs etc.

    As for the middle east peace envoy, words fail me.
    Since Orwell's original name was Blair, " Middle East Peace Envoy " can be seen as a typically Blairite abuse of language.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Innocent Abroad -- come off it. ''in the pay of drug companies and the US healthcare industry''??
    What a quite pathetic comment.
    And of course Miliband in the pay and in the thrall of trade unions IS the right man is he??
    Labour are the political arm of and in the pay of a narrow, bigoted, economically illiterate, socially prejudiced trade union movement that in no way reflects the wider country.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28814555

    Great man !

    Did a great job 60 years ago and again now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    surbiton said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28814555

    Great man !

    Did a great job 60 years ago and again now.

    Maybe this sort of things will make the Israeli government think. They are in serious danger of losing all the goodwill/guilt they’ve received from the West over the years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    At last someone permitted to debunk, slightly, this pb obsession about the LibDem 2010 voters. An excellent article David, and I wonder how long it will be before Mike disagrees?!

    I want to be cheeky and distil your argument into one word: churn.

    Churn is why the 2010 LibDem voter obsession is wrong. It's a static rather than dynamic approach to the electorate. It's a monolithic, highly simplistic, view of who voted historically, and who will do so, and how, in the present and future. Containing a grain of truth does not make it true.

    YouGov and IpsosMori now have the two main parties level pegging. I'm 90%+ certain the Tories are on course for outright Government in GE2015.

    Agree.

    In a previous life I worked in the fast moving consumer goods market where two brands dominated the market with over half between them and a handful of others on or under 10% each - we measured market share bimonthly, and when Brand A went up and Brand B down, we concluded that users had moved from one to the other, or sometimes from a smaller brand. We got quite a shock when we tracked what people actually did on a weekly basis - flitting around from brand to brand with gay abandon. But all this flitting about averaged out over millions of purchases into apparently pretty static market shares. The vast majority are not interested in politics and will probably only engage in the weeks before the GE - when as we observed in Scotland in 2011 polls can shift dramatically in the closing stages. As with Iain Grey in 2011, so too with Ed Miliband in 2015?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    edited August 2014

    The voters of Uxbridge & South Ruislip welcome the prospect of Boris Johnson as their next MP, according to my latest poll. My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would vote for in a general election tomorrow, 42 per cent named the Conservatives, 28 per cent Labour and 19 per cent UKIP: a 14-point Tory lead.

    But when asked how they would vote if Boris Johnson were their Conservative candidate, the margin extended to 29 points: the Tory share grew by ten points to 52 per cent, with Labour down five to 23 per cent and UKIP down three to 16 per cent.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/lord-ashcroft-uxbridge-backs-boris-but-local-voters-divided-on-being-both-mp-and-mayor.html

    The Cameroons really haven't got a clue how to use Boris to best advantage. I was out canvassing with a prominent member of that clan in 2005 when Boris came to help out. This MP was truly astounded when I said that Boris was hugely popular out there. Which he could see from the reaction of voters, who were much more inclined to come over to Boris for a chat...

    They should embrace him, let him loose, and much the same way that Heseltine wowed the Conferences of the seventies and eighties, I expect Boris to be able to rouse the rabble for the fight in May. Albeit, with a certain element of self-interest, as with Heseltine. But Boris would do well to reflect on how that panned out for Michael.....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    The voters of Uxbridge & South Ruislip welcome the prospect of Boris Johnson as their next MP, according to my latest poll. My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would vote for in a general election tomorrow, 42 per cent named the Conservatives, 28 per cent Labour and 19 per cent UKIP: a 14-point Tory lead.

    But when asked how they would vote if Boris Johnson were their Conservative candidate, the margin extended to 29 points: the Tory share grew by ten points to 52 per cent, with Labour down five to 23 per cent and UKIP down three to 16 per cent.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/lord-ashcroft-uxbridge-backs-boris-but-local-voters-divided-on-being-both-mp-and-mayor.html

    The Cameroons really haven't got a clue how to use Boris to best advantage. I was out canvassing with a prominent member of that clan in 2005 when Boris came to help out. This MP was truly astounded when I said that Boris was hugely popular out there. Which he could see from the reaction of voters, who were much more inclined to come over to Boris for a chat...

    They should embrace him, let him loose, and much the same way that Heseltine wowed the Conferences of the seventies and eighties, I expect Boris to be able to rouse the rabble for the fight in May. Albeit, with a certain element of self-interest, as with Heseltine. But Boris would do well to reflect on how that panned out for Michael.....

    Agree - he is a true rock star and people adore him.

    Thing is, his intentions need to be made clear. And if the answer is he wants to be PM then I don't think it can be managed. First because he will never be PM, he has created too much of a buffoon-like image around himself to the point where I couldn't care less how "serious" or intelligent he can be if he wants; and secondly the tension between him and Cam if he wants the latter's job will remind voters of the Blair/Brown debacle.

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Witan said:

    A significant number of soft supporters of any party need a strong positive reason to vote. Is the Miliband team giving them one? A few glittering policy-lite announcements at the autumn conference have to overcome three years or more of those cartoons of plasticine characters which devastatingly are supported by the reality. Labour really do seem to be the Wallace and Gromit of British politics.

    A travesty! Miliband's Labour would KILL to have Wallace's level of innovation and entrepreneurial spirit....or to be as savvy as Gromit.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    TOPPING said:

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.

    My take is that Boris only really has a career path to PM if Cameron succeeds in May and remains in Downing Street. Boris being an active part of that campaign and delivering some additional seats, especially in London, is the way to put down a marker. The party is more likely to countenance another Old Etonian if Cameron has shown the voters will back them. If Cameron loses in 2015, I just can't see the party going for more of the same, however much Boris has the ambition for the job. It will be ripe for a younger, grammar school-educated woman who has had a career outside politics first, would be my guess.

    And I speak as a member of that electorate!

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TOPPING said:

    The voters of Uxbridge & South Ruislip welcome the prospect of Boris Johnson as their next MP, according to my latest poll. My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would vote for in a general election tomorrow, 42 per cent named the Conservatives, 28 per cent Labour and 19 per cent UKIP: a 14-point Tory lead.

    But when asked how they would vote if Boris Johnson were their Conservative candidate, the margin extended to 29 points: the Tory share grew by ten points to 52 per cent, with Labour down five to 23 per cent and UKIP down three to 16 per cent.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/lord-ashcroft-uxbridge-backs-boris-but-local-voters-divided-on-being-both-mp-and-mayor.html

    The Cameroons really haven't got a clue how to use Boris to best advantage. I was out canvassing with a prominent member of that clan in 2005 when Boris came to help out. This MP was truly astounded when I said that Boris was hugely popular out there. Which he could see from the reaction of voters, who were much more inclined to come over to Boris for a chat...

    They should embrace him, let him loose, and much the same way that Heseltine wowed the Conferences of the seventies and eighties, I expect Boris to be able to rouse the rabble for the fight in May. Albeit, with a certain element of self-interest, as with Heseltine. But Boris would do well to reflect on how that panned out for Michael.....

    Agree - he is a true rock star and people adore him.

    Thing is, his intentions need to be made clear. And if the answer is he wants to be PM then I don't think it can be managed. First because he will never be PM, he has created too much of a buffoon-like image around himself to the point where I couldn't care less how "serious" or intelligent he can be if he wants; and secondly the tension between him and Cam if he wants the latter's job will remind voters of the Blair/Brown debacle.

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.
    I agree, Boris should take on enthusing the troops on the rubber chicken circuit and campaign, and not undermine Cameron. It is the role he is best suited for.

    The Conservative party tends to think highly of loyalty, and repayment would come in time I expect.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited August 2014

    Morning all and an excellent thread David.

    As Thomas Nashe has just mentioned, Labour's Achilles point next year will be Scotland. In 2010 there was an element of "We know he's an idiot but he's our idiot" about Brown and the Labour vote in Scotland. The following year they lost seats to the SNP they had held since WWII. Labour has not yet recovered in Scotland from 2011. The Tories in Scotland have suffered from having the most evenly spread votes so only 1 seat for 412,000 votes but 15 second places and currently Baxter is predicting 5 of those will become Tory gains.

    The Scottish Tories are rising from a very low base but 20 consecutive council by-elections with increased Tory vote share all across Scotland is very encouraging. In 1979 after the last NO vote we came close to wiping the SNP out (they went from 11 to 2 seats) so who knows what may happen if 5 weeks today we are reflecting on another No vote.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html
  • Morning all and an excellent thread David.

    As Thomas Nashe has just mentioned, Labour's Achilles point next year will be Scotland. In 2010 there was an element of "We know he's an idiot but he's our idiot" about Brown and the Labour vote in Scotland. The following year they lost seats to the SNP they had held since WWII. Labour has not yet recovered in Scotland from 2011. The Tories in Scotland have suffered from having the most evenly spread votes so only 1 seat for 412,000 votes but 15 second places and currently Baxter is predicting 5 of those will become Tory gains.

    The Scottish Tories are rising from a very low base but 20 consecutive council by-elections with increased Tory vote share all across Scotland is very encouraging. In 1979 after the last NO vote we came close to wiping the SNP out (they went from 11 to 2 seats) so who knows what may happen if 5 weeks today we are reflecting on another No vote.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%
    ...giggles...

    The tories won't even come second in at least two of these.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited August 2014

    Morning all and an excellent thread David.

    As Thomas Nashe has just mentioned, Labour's Achilles point next year will be Scotland. In 2010 there was an element of "We know he's an idiot but he's our idiot" about Brown and the Labour vote in Scotland. The following year they lost seats to the SNP they had held since WWII. Labour has not yet recovered in Scotland from 2011. The Tories in Scotland have suffered from having the most evenly spread votes so only 1 seat for 412,000 votes but 15 second places and currently Baxter is predicting 5 of those will become Tory gains.

    The Scottish Tories are rising from a very low base but 20 consecutive council by-elections with increased Tory vote share all across Scotland is very encouraging. In 1979 after the last NO vote we came close to wiping the SNP out (they went from 11 to 2 seats) so who knows what may happen if 5 weeks today we are reflecting on another No vote.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%
    ...giggles...

    The tories won't even come second in at least two of these.

    Well, quite!

    One only needs to look at the current Ladbrokes prices to see that all 5 are long shots for Ruth Davidson's bunch.

    The Lib Dems are FAV to hold three, Labour are FAV to gain one (Edinburgh West) and the SNP are FAV to gain one (Argyll and Bute).

    Baxter is well and truly out on a limb in this case. Mind you, it is astonishing how good Baxter's model has been in the past. Far better than pollsters this far out from polling days.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited August 2014

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Morning all and an excellent thread David.

    As Thomas Nashe has just mentioned, Labour's Achilles point next year will be Scotland. In 2010 there was an element of "We know he's an idiot but he's our idiot" about Brown and the Labour vote in Scotland. The following year they lost seats to the SNP they had held since WWII. Labour has not yet recovered in Scotland from 2011. The Tories in Scotland have suffered from having the most evenly spread votes so only 1 seat for 412,000 votes but 15 second places and currently Baxter is predicting 5 of those will become Tory gains.

    The Scottish Tories are rising from a very low base but 20 consecutive council by-elections with increased Tory vote share all across Scotland is very encouraging. In 1979 after the last NO vote we came close to wiping the SNP out (they went from 11 to 2 seats) so who knows what may happen if 5 weeks today we are reflecting on another No vote.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%
    ...giggles...

    The tories won't even come second in at least two of these.

    They have no chance in Edinburgh West, and are unlikely to finish second in Argyll and Bute, they should gain the first two and have a very outside chance of Fife. They might have a sniff at one of the SNP seats if the SNP suffer after a no vote - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus or Banff and Buchan, most likely the first of those, but it's just a sniff and I'm not punting on it, and it would be entirely dependant on a downtick in SNP fortunes amongst Tartan Tories following a no
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @murdo_fraser: Good to see @petewishart on his soapbox in Perth High St, driving lots of traffic to the @UK_Together stall for stickers, badges & flags
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Scott_P said:

    @murdo_fraser: Good to see @petewishart on his soapbox in Perth High St, driving lots of traffic to the @UK_Together stall for stickers, badges & flags

    Ha Ha Ha , you go look and the stall has tumbleweed rolling past, good old unionist liars they just cannot help themselves
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
  • SNIP.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%
    ...giggles...

    The tories won't even come second in at least two of these.

    They have no chance in Edinburgh West, and are unlikely to finish second in Argyll and Bute, they should gain the first two and have a very outside chance of Fife. They might have a sniff at one of the SNP seats if the SNP suffer after a no vote - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus or Banff and Buchan, most likely the first of those, but it's just a sniff and I'm not punting on it, and it would be entirely dependant on a downtick in SNP fortunes amongst Tartan Tories following a no
    The Tories need a 4.6 point swing to take Perth and North Perthshire from Pete Wishart. On paper, this is entirely feasible with the collapse of the SLD vote and the downturn in SLab fortunes. However, I know this constituency very well and have knocked many a door with Pete. IMHO the Tories will get spanked yet again, but I would love to see them pour resources into the area as it would weaken their efforts in more important seats nearby. For every SLD and SLab voter that switches to SCon at least one will switch to the SNP.

    Current Shadsy prices - Perth and North Perthshire

    SNP 1/10
    Con 8/1
    Lab 16/1
    100 bar
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!

    Nonsense, he knows every word written on Wings Over Somerset. How much closer to reality can you get...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So the women of Scotland (or at any rate a representative sample of around 1,000 of them) are "crap"?

    You don't foresee any problems with this approach?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2014
    Scott_P said:

    I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!

    Nonsense, he knows every word written on Wings Over Somerset. How much closer to reality can you get...
    Dear Dear , go back to playing with your dolls. What a big jessie.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    Right you think that's the explanation, Survation deliberately picked out partisan stupid people? I suspect you know yourself that that is bollocks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Just a week and 9 minutes until qualifying in Spa. Nyooooooooom!

    I don't anticipate a huge change in relative performance but given how close Williams and Red Bull are, a little change could make a big difference. Doubt Ferrari can hold onto third, although Massa needs to pull his weight.

    Also heard somewhere (I forget where) that Bottas and Button might swap seats. If I were Bottas, I'd be tempted to stay with Williams.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    This is where the leader of Project Fear cut his teeth. This is him talking about what Thatcherism would cause in 1981:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654
    edited August 2014

    TOPPING said:

    The voters of Uxbridge & South Ruislip welcome the prospect of Boris Johnson as their next MP, according to my latest poll. My survey of 1,000 residents of the constituency, completed on Thursday, found that when asked which party they would vote for in a general election tomorrow, 42 per cent named the Conservatives, 28 per cent Labour and 19 per cent UKIP: a 14-point Tory lead.

    But when asked how they would vote if Boris Johnson were their Conservative candidate, the margin extended to 29 points: the Tory share grew by ten points to 52 per cent, with Labour down five to 23 per cent and UKIP down three to 16 per cent.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/08/lord-ashcroft-uxbridge-backs-boris-but-local-voters-divided-on-being-both-mp-and-mayor.html

    The Cameroons really haven't got a clue how to use Boris to best advantage. I was out canvassing with a prominent member of that clan in 2005 when Boris came to help out. This MP was truly astounded when I said that Boris was hugely popular out there. Which he could see from the reaction of voters, who were much more inclined to come over to Boris for a chat...

    They should embrace him, let him loose, and much the same way that Heseltine wowed the Conferences of the seventies and eighties, I expect Boris to be able to rouse the rabble for the fight in May. Albeit, with a certain element of self-interest, as with Heseltine. But Boris would do well to reflect on how that panned out for Michael.....

    Agree - he is a true rock star and people adore him.

    Thing is, his intentions need to be made clear. And if the answer is he wants to be PM then I don't think it can be managed. First because he will never be PM, he has created too much of a buffoon-like image around himself to the point where I couldn't care less how "serious" or intelligent he can be if he wants; and secondly the tension between him and Cam if he wants the latter's job will remind voters of the Blair/Brown debacle.

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.
    I agree, Boris should take on enthusing the troops on the rubber chicken circuit and campaign, and not undermine Cameron. It is the role he is best suited for.

    The Conservative party tends to think highly of loyalty, and repayment would come in time I expect.
    If I was Cameron I'd put him in charge of the Tory campaign in London, since:
    1) It seems appropriate, what with him being mayor of it.
    2) The Tories probably won't do very well there.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    SNIP.

    Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory? I would want to look at the odds but seems a reasonable punt.

    A No vote will damage the SNP through a recrimination driven post mortem, and the most pro Union party may well get some bonus from the Scottish electorate freely backing the union in the first vote that they have had for independence.
    - "Which are the 5 seats in Scotland that Baxter thinks may go Tory?"

    (Baxter's % likelihood of CON Gain)

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (from LD) 71%
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (from LD) 66%
    Edinburgh West (from LD) 48%
    Argyll and Bute (from LD) 47%
    North East Fife (from LD) 39%
    ...giggles...

    The tories won't even come second in at least two of these.

    They have no chance in Edinburgh West, and are unlikely to finish second in Argyll and Bute, they should gain the first two and have a very outside chance of Fife. They might have a sniff at one of the SNP seats if the SNP suffer after a no vote - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus or Banff and Buchan, most likely the first of those, but it's just a sniff and I'm not punting on it, and it would be entirely dependant on a downtick in SNP fortunes amongst Tartan Tories following a no
    The Tories need a 4.6 point swing to take Perth and North Perthshire from Pete Wishart. On paper, this is entirely feasible with the collapse of the SLD vote and the downturn in SLab fortunes. However, I know this constituency very well and have knocked many a door with Pete. IMHO the Tories will get spanked yet again, but I would love to see them pour resources into the area as it would weaken their efforts in more important seats nearby. For every SLD and SLab voter that switches to SCon at least one will switch to the SNP.

    Current Shadsy prices - Perth and North Perthshire

    SNP 1/10
    Con 8/1
    Lab 16/1
    100 bar
    Like I said, long shot.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So the women of Scotland (or at any rate a representative sample of around 1,000 of them) are "crap"?

    You don't foresee any problems with this approach?
    Even allowing for it being inaccurate , it does show that we have a fair amount of dumplings in Scotland. Not confident that these unionist drones will be of much benefit in a dynamic independent country. They have been trained as sheeple far too well and seem incapable of individual rational thoughts.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There is a Phd just begging to be written by students of psychology on which stages of grief the various Nats are in regarding Eck's catastrophic fumbling of the campaign and the death of the dream

    Some are still in Denial and Isolation but others are clearly well into the Angry phase

    Bargaining and Depression will start on Sep 19th, but it may take years before they reach Acceptance
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    Right you think that's the explanation, Survation deliberately picked out partisan stupid people? I suspect you know yourself that that is bollocks.
    NO I said they had sampled partisan stupid people, however randomly they did it their database is obviously very limited.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    This is where the leader of Project Fear cut his teeth. This is him talking about what Thatcherism would cause in 1981:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
    Dire is it not , the man is a turnip.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Scott_P said:

    There is a Phd just begging to be written by students of psychology on which stages of grief the various Nats are in regarding Eck's catastrophic fumbling of the campaign and the death of the dream

    Some are still in Denial and Isolation but others are clearly well into the Angry phase

    Bargaining and Depression will start on Sep 19th, but it may take years before they reach Acceptance

    Ha Ha Ha , for sure you will not be writing it , I doubt you could tie shoe laces.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So the women of Scotland (or at any rate a representative sample of around 1,000 of them) are "crap"?

    You don't foresee any problems with this approach?
    Even allowing for it being inaccurate , it does show that we have a fair amount of dumplings in Scotland. Not confident that these unionist drones will be of much benefit in a dynamic independent country. They have been trained as sheeple far too well and seem incapable of individual rational thoughts.
    Lets get this right, YOUR the one complaining about people, 'dumplings', being ' incapable of individual rational thoughts.' ??

    ho ho ho... the fact that its YOU who is is trapped in groupthink is lost on you.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    This is where the leader of Project Fear cut his teeth. This is him talking about what Thatcherism would cause in 1981:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
    Dire is it not , the man is a turnip.
    So Alex Salmond lost a debate to a turnip. That must be utterly humiliating.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    So Alex Salmond lost a debate to a turnip. That must be utterly humiliating.

    No, no, he didn't lose.

    Sure, most people who watched the debate thought he lost, but 60% of a sub-sample of 22 people thought otherwise.

    Nat reality equilibrium restored
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So the women of Scotland (or at any rate a representative sample of around 1,000 of them) are "crap"?

    You don't foresee any problems with this approach?
    Even allowing for it being inaccurate , it does show that we have a fair amount of dumplings in Scotland. Not confident that these unionist drones will be of much benefit in a dynamic independent country. They have been trained as sheeple far too well and seem incapable of individual rational thoughts.
    Lets get this right, YOUR the one complaining about people, 'dumplings', being ' incapable of individual rational thoughts.' ??

    ho ho ho... the fact that its YOU who is is trapped in groupthink is lost on you.
    I see the loons are out of bed now, no more intelligent posts so time to think of heading out. Who taught you "Groupthink" , big word for you to be using.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people. I only hope that sane rational moderate people do not let them win any seats and vote accordingly. It will bring shame on our nation if UKIP win a single seat.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T

    I just about got over jet lag then came down with a stinking cold, I don't particularly like Chinese type food and I hate cities. I don't think I like Singapore very much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Rog, surely there's a fish and chip shop catering to homesick Britons?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2014

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    This is where the leader of Project Fear cut his teeth. This is him talking about what Thatcherism would cause in 1981:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
    Dire is it not , the man is a turnip.
    So Alex Salmond lost a debate to a turnip. That must be utterly humiliating.
    Another jessie, who cares about a TV show. Come into the real world. Try debating facts rather than pontificating on who did or did not come out best on a TV reality show. Fannies like you think Darling won , intelligent people like me understand it is of no importance.

    EG ,
    1.Explain to me the guaranteed extra powers Scotland will get when the vote is NO
    2.How much will Scotland's budget be cut in 2015 by Westminster after a NO vote
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Mr. Rog, surely there's a fish and chip shop catering to homesick Britons?

    Unless there from Burley in Warfedale, I don't particularly like fish and chips :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. G, would you be so disinterested in the debate and its perceived result had Salmond done better?

    I do think currency was and remains the telling issue. The very fact there's a huge question mark over what currency would be used is a tremendous problem for Yes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2014
    malcolmg said:

    intelligent people like me understand it is of no importance.

    ROFL:ROFL:ROFL:ROFL
    ____^____
    L __/ [x]\
    LOL====__ \
    L \__________]
    I I
    ----------/

    Ok, Vanilla does NOT like ROFLcopters.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    I just about got over jet lag then came down with a stinking cold, I don't particularly like Chinese type food and I hate cities. I don't think I like Singapore very much.

    Funnily enough I've just left Singapore with a stinking cold - it's very disconcerting because years of training have ingrained "keeping warm" - while in Singapore the challenge is keeping cool!

    Try ginger tea.....
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    Roger said:

    "For years I have been labouring under the delusion that it was just me, my mum, my sister, my gal pals, most of my aunts, the lady who bakes the cakes for the church in the village and my old boss, the Scottish commentator Deborah Orr, who couldn’t stand him."

    I do wonder on a day like this in a month like this when people are being massacred on a daily basis in the Middle East whether there could be a better way to draw attention to the vacuousness of yourself and your paper than Jan Moir has done?

    Roger

    Try this instead,
    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-omnibus-August-Daily-Record.pdf
    Some interesting contrasts with Darling:

    Salmond / Darling (net)

    Honest: -19 / -5
    Intelligent: + 20 / +36
    Arrogant: +52 / +18
    Must have been some real dullards that were polled, they obviously do not liv ein real world. Darling honest LOL
    Surely that illustrates the scale of Salmond's problem? Substantially less honest than Darling.....and less intelligent and substantially more arrogant.....

    Two more sets

    Salmond / Darling

    Ambitious: 52 / 25
    Principled: 22 / 34
    If you believe that crap you are sillier than I thought.
    So what's your evidence that these polls are 'crap' Malcolm. I'll be honest it doesn't strike me that you have a great insight into the reality of the campaign!
    My insight is that he is a no good expense flipping loser who bankrupted the country whilst lining his own pockets, he continues to do so today. I would not trust him to run a bath. So only explanation is that the people polled were partisan , stupid or both. If he is the benefit we get from the great union then god help us.
    Is that clear enough for you.
    This is where the leader of Project Fear cut his teeth. This is him talking about what Thatcherism would cause in 1981:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoVoBWjcXdU
    Dire is it not , the man is a turnip.
    So Alex Salmond lost a debate to a turnip. That must be utterly humiliating.
    Simply saying something and then repeating it ad infinitum does not actually make the original falsehood true.

    cf: "the settled will of the Scottish people"

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I think I'd call it Singapore flu - but it may have pandemic connotations!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people. I only hope that sane rational moderate people do not let them win any seats and vote accordingly. It will bring shame on our nation if UKIP win a single seat.
    Bow Locks.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I've even tried the Sean T remedy and had a couple of bottles of wine but I still feel cr4p - garrulous, but cr4p
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people. I only hope that sane rational moderate people do not let them win any seats and vote accordingly. It will bring shame on our nation if UKIP win a single seat.
    Another stupid crash of a statement by #Flightpath

    The only nasty person/s are you and your ilk.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Rog, tried whisky?
  • Mr. G, would you be so disinterested in the debate and its perceived result had Salmond done better?

    I do think currency was and remains the telling issue. The very fact there's a huge question mark over what currency would be used is a tremendous problem for Yes.

    Whereas the huge question mark over what "more powers" might mean is completely unimportant?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/referendum/article4172632.ece

    Long may Bitter Together continue to play to their core supporters. They simply do not have a clue about what attracts the large number of floating voters who are going to decide the outcome of this referendum.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Mr. G, would you be so disinterested in the debate and its perceived result had Salmond done better?

    I do think currency was and remains the telling issue. The very fact there's a huge question mark over what currency would be used is a tremendous problem for Yes.

    MD, I do not think TV reality shows make any difference, bit like watching Eastenders or Coronation street. The currency is the pound , only unknown is whether it is in or out of a currency union. The Westminster party leaders are famous for being economical with the truth and doing u turns and I agree with Salmond in that if it is YES and the pound heads downwards , their bluff will be called. Others think different but time will tell. Every other independent in the world manages with some kind of currency , why would Scotland be any different.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Dickson, weighed against not knowing what currency you might use, yes, uncertainty over more powers is insignificant.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Mr. Rog, tried whisky?

    I looked in the exec lounge but they only had crappy blended stuff! I've trained my palate to only accept single malts, in the best Jack W tradition. Saying that I probably couldn't tell the difference between a blended whisky and paraffin at the moment. God I feel rough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    intelligent people like me understand it is of no importance.

    ROFL:ROFL:ROFL:ROFL
    ____^____
    L __/ [x]\
    LOL====__ \
    L \__________]
    I I
    ----------/

    Ok, Vanilla does NOT like ROFLcopters.
    Better sticking to the dolls, you are only making yourself look even more stupid.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. G, because no currency union would (as well as making the divorce acrimonious) severely damage the Scottish financial sector due to the absence of a lender of last resort.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Mr. G, because no currency union would (as well as making the divorce acrimonious) severely damage the Scottish financial sector due to the absence of a lender of last resort.

    MD , there are varying opinions on that between economists, just depends on who you believe , the unionist lapdogs or the others. Again open to interpretation , there was a very good debate on the subject on Radio Scotland this morning. It is not a big enough minus to warrant not being independent, a few jobs in Edinburgh are no compensation for running your own country.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Mr. Dickson, weighed against not knowing what currency you might use, yes, uncertainty over more powers is insignificant.

    MD , we know what currency we will be using , lack of powers is our main concern.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2014
    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Rog, what's the China situation? The only stories I recall recently are them trying to claim the resource-rich southern seas and an anti-corruption drive.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people. I only hope that sane rational moderate people do not let them win any seats and vote accordingly. It will bring shame on our nation if UKIP win a single seat.
    Bow Locks.
    Sounds like we've got ourselves a democracy hater
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    With the greates respect, will the discussions stop if the decision goes against what the separatists want? In other referenda, once the question has been asked and answered, there's no chance of another question being put for at least a generation!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163



    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people.

    Don't be too hard on yourself, you're not that bad.


  • wumperwumper Posts: 35
    I have read some cack in my time but this column takes the biscuit, what a load of twaddle
  • Mr. Dickson, weighed against not knowing what currency you might use, yes, uncertainty over more powers is insignificant.

    The Sage of Uppsala will continue to use the Krona, for sure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited August 2014
    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    With the greates respect, will the discussions stop if the decision goes against what the separatists want? In other referenda, once the question has been asked and answered, there's no chance of another question being put for at least a generation!
    We would be gutted for a while, but there would soon be request for next referendum, if it was to be NO it would be by a whisker and so would not go away.
    However it will be YES and so you guys will be left to discuss what name your rump will be called and some will be whinging about the CU and lack of borders etc.

    PS, seriously , it is too late to stop now, it will go on until Scotland is independent , things will never go back to where they were, the union is finished regardless of this initial vote.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019


    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    You're right, going to the bar to spend some of my own money on malt! Beware, I may become incoherent and start chatting up anything in a skirt (or kilt?)
  • TOPPING said:

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.

    My take is that Boris only really has a career path to PM if Cameron succeeds in May and remains in Downing Street. Boris being an active part of that campaign and delivering some additional seats, especially in London, is the way to put down a marker. The party is more likely to countenance another Old Etonian if Cameron has shown the voters will back them. If Cameron loses in 2015, I just can't see the party going for more of the same, however much Boris has the ambition for the job. It will be ripe for a younger, grammar school-educated woman who has had a career outside politics first, would be my guess.

    And I speak as a member of that electorate!

    You speak of Priti Woman I assume. Good pick, although I fear her CV is one senior Government position short in terms of enabling her to be considered a serious candidate for Tory Party Leader.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Blue_rog said:



    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    You're right, going to the bar to spend some of my own money on malt! Beware, I may become incoherent and start chatting up anything in a skirt (or kilt?)

    Could be interesting , enjoy. I will have one and toast your health this evening. I have some nice Glenrothes 12 year old.
  • Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    - "being subjected to something they didn't want asked"

    Huh? You do realise that it was in the SNP's manifesto, don't you? A manifesto upon which we won an overall parliamentary majority.

    I do realise that manifesto promises mean little within the Westminister bubble, but Scots have a bit more respect for democracy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Right, off to do other things.

    Mind yourself, Scotsmen, in case Mr. Rog turns to inebriated sporran-foraging.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    Right, off to do other things.

    Mind yourself, Scotsmen, in case Mr. Rog turns to inebriated sporran-foraging.

    have fun MD, I too am off to upgrade my Sat Nav maps to 2014 version.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    @Southam Observer

    " I guess a lot will depend on the manifesto that UKIP eventually comes up with"

    There is much in what you say, but I think the UKIP manifesto will not be important to the people who are thinking of voting for that party. Few people will read it (does anyone who isn't paid to read any party's manifesto?) and any reports pointing out inconsistencies and items of silliness will be shrugged off. Look at the run up to the Euros earlier this year; there were a lot of stories about how awful some of the UKIP people were and how incompetent and unfit they were as a party, if it made a difference it was a very small one.

    UKIP is the party for the ignored, the disenfranchised and the fed up. In many ways it is analogous to the Labour Party in its early years, it exists to give a voice to those ignored by the big parties.

    UKIP are a classic populist party, picking up support from the disgruntled everywhere. Disgruntlement does not make for a coherent message or government, nor will it make a coherent campaign.

    At most they will take a handful of seats (I forecast zero) but may alter the outcomes in a number of others, so they will be able to stay disgruntled.

    Any fool or fruitcake can moan, but few can plan and deliver a coherent plan for government.
    I am not gong to argue with that, except to say I don't think anyone, not even their most ardent supporters expect them to need a coherent plan for government. UKIP may take a few seats, I'd be very pleased if they do, they may not. What for sure they are doing is giving a voice to those who the big parties want to ignore. I think they will continue to grow because of it.

    Oh, on the subject of a coherent plan for government I haven't seen one from any of the three major parties and as another coalition government seems to be on the cards I don't suppose we shall either.
    UKIP ae goiving a voice to some very nasty people. I only hope that sane rational moderate people do not let them win any seats and vote accordingly. It will bring shame on our nation if UKIP win a single seat.
    Probably not any nastier than some of the people in the other parties.
  • malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    With the greates respect, will the discussions stop if the decision goes against what the separatists want? In other referenda, once the question has been asked and answered, there's no chance of another question being put for at least a generation!
    We would be gutted for a while, but there would soon be request for next referendum, if it was to be NO it would be by a whisker and so would not go away.
    However it will be YES and so you guys will be left to discuss what name your rump will be called and some will be whinging about the CU and lack of borders etc.

    PS, seriously , it is too late to stop now, it will go on until Scotland is independent , things will never go back to where they were, the union is finished regardless of this initial vote.
    Once the oil is gone ( soon ), the SNP will return to its natural habitat on the lunatic fringe.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited August 2014

    TOPPING said:

    The reality is that this whole thing will only work (for the Cons) if BoJo is prepared to take one for the team, and campaign for a Tory victory for Cam.

    And I'm not sure that's in the great man's mind.

    My take is that Boris only really has a career path to PM if Cameron succeeds in May and remains in Downing Street. Boris being an active part of that campaign and delivering some additional seats, especially in London, is the way to put down a marker. The party is more likely to countenance another Old Etonian if Cameron has shown the voters will back them. If Cameron loses in 2015, I just can't see the party going for more of the same, however much Boris has the ambition for the job. It will be ripe for a younger, grammar school-educated woman who has had a career outside politics first, would be my guess.

    And I speak as a member of that electorate!

    You speak of Priti Woman I assume. Good pick, although I fear her CV is one senior Government position short in terms of enabling her to be considered a serious candidate for Tory Party Leader.
    As one of her constituents, I sincerely hope not. She appears to have a disregard for the less fortunate which would would result in a Tory paty with even less regard than Cameron/Osborne/IDS’s for those without loadsamoney!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2014
    surbiton said:

    Previous topic: UKIP smashed to a pulp in Lambeth.

    The beat the LDs in a ward they (the LDs) won two elections ago.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    With the greates respect, will the discussions stop if the decision goes against what the separatists want? In other referenda, once the question has been asked and answered, there's no chance of another question being put for at least a generation!
    We would be gutted for a while, but there would soon be request for next referendum, if it was to be NO it would be by a whisker and so would not go away.
    However it will be YES and so you guys will be left to discuss what name your rump will be called and some will be whinging about the CU and lack of borders etc.

    PS, seriously , it is too late to stop now, it will go on until Scotland is independent , things will never go back to where they were, the union is finished regardless of this initial vote.
    Once the oil is gone ( soon ), the SNP will return to its natural habitat on the lunatic fringe.

    Yes , we are doomed , they keep finding stuff and making our problems bigger
    https://twitter.com/ToniGiugliano/status/500300559480786944/photo/1
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    wumper said:

    I have read some cack in my time but this column takes the biscuit, what a load of twaddle

    I think it's a balanced article, it's just that people are picking out points from one side of it.

    The positives from Labour's point of view are that there is potential for their vote to go up from their current level, it isn't simply a case of trying to hang on as much as they can. The fact most of these unsure voters haven't really aligned themselves to another party (some fleeting losses to UKIP apart) bodes well that they can be won back. In a highly publicized, debate led campaign, there shouldn't be any trouble getting voters to turn out either.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Previous topic: UKIP smashed to a pulp in Lambeth.

    The beat the LDs in a ward they won two elections ago.
    That's a bit like saying Labour smashed to bits in Hans Town.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:



    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    You're right, going to the bar to spend some of my own money on malt! Beware, I may become incoherent and start chatting up anything in a skirt (or kilt?)
    Could be interesting , enjoy. I will have one and toast your health this evening. I have some nice Glenrothes 12 year old.

    OMG another reason to dislike Singapore - £ 40 for a double Highland Park. Mind you it is 25 yrs old! I'll sip instead of gulp. Sporrans safe - for now
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited August 2014
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Oh dear oh lord, has the thread been dominated by that decided question about a much loved part of the UK being subjected to something they didn't want asked?

    Why not discuss something of import - like the situation in Ukraine, or the inactivity of the Eurocrats, or what the hell China is going to do?

    Rog, Only 5 weeks more for you to suffer.

    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    With the greates respect, will the discussions stop if the decision goes against what the separatists want? In other referenda, once the question has been asked and answered, there's no chance of another question being put for at least a generation!
    We would be gutted for a while, but there would soon be request for next referendum, if it was to be NO it would be by a whisker and so would not go away.
    However it will be YES and so you guys will be left to discuss what name your rump will be called and some will be whinging about the CU and lack of borders etc.

    PS, seriously , it is too late to stop now, it will go on until Scotland is independent , things will never go back to where they were, the union is finished regardless of this initial vote.
    Once the oil is gone ( soon ), the SNP will return to its natural habitat on the lunatic fringe.

    Yes , we are doomed , they keep finding stuff and making our problems bigger
    https://twitter.com/ToniGiugliano/status/500300559480786944/photo/1
    God only knows why that Italian bloke thinks Shetland's resources belong to him.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Previous topic: UKIP smashed to a pulp in Lambeth.

    The beat the LDs in a ward they won two elections ago.
    That's a bit like saying Labour smashed to bits in Hans Town.
    Labour have never won Hans Town as far as I know. The LDs won Knight's Hill in 2006.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:



    One thing most PBers are also not taking into account.partly because most don't suffer it, is the massive reduction in living standards for the low waged, in the public sector certainly but also private. The BoE's projection to halve [ where were they all this time ? ] expected wage growth rate shows people are really suffering. *ankers maybe raking in, but the poor sods at the bottom half are suffering. They won't be voting Tory, I can assure you and, on the day, will come out and vote anti Tory. UKIP will get some of those votes.

    This will be the first election in decades when people will be worse off than 5 years ago. THanks to austerity.

    Thanks to the people who made austerity essential!, and polling suggests that most still blame the Brown government, and his acolyte Balls.

    And when we look at France or at Japan, where we see a 1.7% contraction in GDP last quarter, we see no real alternative to living within our means. Borrowing for stimulus is an epic fail.
    I find your logic strange. We are only talking about people who voted Brown / Labour in 2010. Then, in the aftermath of the biggest credit crunch the world had seen for 60 years and all the Tory propaganda, they still voted Labour. Now, five years later, they will blame Labour ?
    Labour ran some very effective PPBs in the second half of the campaign - featuring besuited Tories going around taking things away from normal middle class families (I remember the plaintive complaint from one of the characters - I think it was to do with child benefit - "but we need that").

    The question then becomes: (a) did those ads persuade anyone waverers to stick with Labour - I suspect they did; and (b) has their experience under the coalition really been as bad as they feared?

    Secondly, there is then the question of Scotland where Brown did far better than in the rest of the country. I suspect EdM has less fundamental appeal to Scots although, of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about what is going to happen in Scotland next year. That said Labour's risk is probably to the downside.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:



    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    You're right, going to the bar to spend some of my own money on malt! Beware, I may become incoherent and start chatting up anything in a skirt (or kilt?)
    Could be interesting , enjoy. I will have one and toast your health this evening. I have some nice Glenrothes 12 year old.
    OMG another reason to dislike Singapore - £ 40 for a double Highland Park. Mind you it is 25 yrs old! I'll sip instead of gulp. Sporrans safe - for now

    Hopefully a quarter gill measure and not the piddly metric dribble.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:

    malcolmg said:

    Blue_rog said:



    PS , those other topics you suggest are miniscule in importance compared to the big question.
    Get a few malts in you and you will feel better.
    You're right, going to the bar to spend some of my own money on malt! Beware, I may become incoherent and start chatting up anything in a skirt (or kilt?)
    Could be interesting , enjoy. I will have one and toast your health this evening. I have some nice Glenrothes 12 year old.
    OMG another reason to dislike Singapore - £ 40 for a double Highland Park. Mind you it is 25 yrs old! I'll sip instead of gulp. Sporrans safe - for now
    Hopefully a quarter gill measure and not the piddly metric dribble.

    30ml per I'm gutted
This discussion has been closed.