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Page not found – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 13 in General
Page not found – politicalbetting.com

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  • PhilPhil Posts: 616
    Maybe he’s referring to the polling for his preferred hard as nails Brexit?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,646
    The supply outages have even hit PB thread delivery.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    The page’s relatives have decided that it would not like the publicity and asks that PB respects this.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,646
    This page was originally called “Top Reasons to Love Brexit”, but sadly none could be identified.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,695
    Try Arizona?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    RobD said:

    Did Starmer try to post a guest thread?

    Very good. Very good.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561

    This page was originally called “Top Reasons to Love Brexit”, but sadly none could be identified.

    Amusing, I thought it was a list of all the cards Maroš Šefčovič has to play against Frost today.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Superb header.

    Very well said.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 570

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 570
    If Bozo wants to keep re-fighting Brexit at the next GE the best response from Labour is to simply say you told everyone Brexit Was Done so why are you still going on about it .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    BJ's marital & parenting motto 'this time it'll be different' now adopted as foreign policy by HMG.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
  • I'm impressed that OGH got Dominic Cummings to write a header for the blog.

    Shame Dom edited it before we could all read it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030
    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    Given the EU dismissed out of hand suggestions that would have helped minimise disruption to NI-GB trade, yet now appear open to them, there's been a fair degree of bad faith to go around.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
  • Whenever I try to remember how to code
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. 679, how's the EU coming along with the trusted trader programme?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,030

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    Given the EU dismissed out of hand suggestions that would have helped minimise disruption to NI-GB trade, yet now appear open to them, there's been a fair degree of bad faith to go around.
    Precisely this.

    They also helped screw Theresa May's administration by their inflexibility so they really should take a look in the looking glass.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,575
    About time we had a thread about Boris’s principles
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,026
    edited October 13
    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    Johnson has nothing to gain by Brexit becoming an issue and everything to lose.

    His Brexit majority is built on the fact he was best placed to "Get Brexit done".

    The less done it looks, the more shaky that majority looks.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1448230833622589440?s=20

    I disagree with that. I think it helps him if he can get the message over that the evil EU is still messing with us.

    Normally when one wins the losers are unhappy and the winners happy, but leavers seem more animated than remainers currently. It's as if they lost.
    Brexit was significantly driven by Grumpy Old Man syndrome, being perpetually angry about x, y and z, and things not being as good as they used to be. None of those things are changing, or ever will, so many Brexiteers will always be moaning about something or other, or just modernity.
    Brexit is a nasty bout of dyspepsia, fashioned into an economic and geopolitical policy.
    The fact is that those who support the EU failed to win the argument and have ever since acted like grumpy old men and continue their angst and have so far been unable to beat Boris so resort to name calling as everything else seems to have no effect on his popularity

    We had years of Remainers saying that Britain would face economic chaos of mass unemployment and that Europe would bind us to their sphere of influence as they were so big and we were so small.

    Now we have full unemployment and the UK is carving its own path and the same people are complaining about the full employment and the "disruption" to "alliances" with Europe.

    They might be less grumpy if they could just admit they were wrong.
    We already had full employment prior to Brexit. That's why closing the door to foreign drivers, care staff, and food pickers and packers wasn't such a great idea and is likely to cause economic damage to the UK.
    We're at full employment because the open door meant the market there was an effectively infinite supply of labour, dropping the market clearing rate for wages to the floor, meaning that there'd always be a shortage of minimum wage labour.

    Importing new "drivers, care staff, pickers and packers" etc would fill the vacancies at that moment but then new vacancies would appear as those new people would need their own drivers, food etc so the labour shortage was never filled.

    Which is why there's no economic damage to closing the door. What closing the door will do is sever the link between vacancies and infinite labour meaning that wages have to rise off the floor in order to see vacancies get filled.
    Wrong then and wrong now, Philip.

    You have chosen an intuitively satisfying but tiny part of the whole picture, itself anecdotal and incomplete, and projected it as explaining everything.
    Except its not anecdotal its factual and demonstrable - and I was wrong to dismiss it in 2016 and apologised recently to isam for calling this wrong. But I did call this wrong, the effect was real, so we should accept that and move on.

    If I'm making a mistake then point out the mistake. If you can't, then 'satisfying' will have to do. As will the expectation of real pay rises for millions of people to come.
    It is anecdotal because you are taking a situation "infinite immigration" (we'll forgive you the clumsy language) and projecting from that a theoretical situation whereby they are all ready to come at the merest hint of the minimum wage rising. And from that you assume that without that "infinite" PAW, as Alan Greenspan termed it, wages would have risen.

    But that's all you've got.

    Whereas all we actually have is the number of immigrants who did come and what happened to employment and wages. Unemployment has ebbed and flowed over the past 17 years and of course we had the GFC shock. Trying within that to determine that throughout those events it was this imaginary workforce poised, like a gazelle, to leap into action in the UK is, well, anecdotal.

    Look how many people did come. Why do you suppose that ever more might have than did. Do we know that they were keeping tabs of the ONS wage data ready for the moment to mobilise? No of course we don't.

    Is why it's a satisfying theory, but anecdotal at best.

    And now you, amongst others, are lauding the fact that wages are rising now that there is a labour shortage but at least seem to have accepted the role of demand that the departed labour force played and hence we are likely to end up back where we started.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
    What are the odds it'll be an old school chum and divers Tory donors?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,857
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    Depends on if you think this is a worse mess than he inherited. Personally I think we’re seeing a rare piece of expert realpolitik from this government. It’s pretty plain that the EU chose to weaponise the Irish problem, seems like the govt by luck or judgement found a way to muzzle that gun.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    And folk love him for it.
    "Tell me lies tell me sweet little lies."
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,026
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    It doesn't seem right from a Union Jack underpants sovereignty perspective for piddly little Ireland to eff up the Brexit Grand Projet but here we are.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    edited October 13
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    Johnson has nothing to gain by Brexit becoming an issue and everything to lose.

    His Brexit majority is built on the fact he was best placed to "Get Brexit done".

    The less done it looks, the more shaky that majority looks.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1448230833622589440?s=20

    I disagree with that. I think it helps him if he can get the message over that the evil EU is still messing with us.

    Normally when one wins the losers are unhappy and the winners happy, but leavers seem more animated than remainers currently. It's as if they lost.
    Brexit was significantly driven by Grumpy Old Man syndrome, being perpetually angry about x, y and z, and things not being as good as they used to be. None of those things are changing, or ever will, so many Brexiteers will always be moaning about something or other, or just modernity.
    Brexit is a nasty bout of dyspepsia, fashioned into an economic and geopolitical policy.
    The fact is that those who support the EU failed to win the argument and have ever since acted like grumpy old men and continue their angst and have so far been unable to beat Boris so resort to name calling as everything else seems to have no effect on his popularity

    We had years of Remainers saying that Britain would face economic chaos of mass unemployment and that Europe would bind us to their sphere of influence as they were so big and we were so small.

    Now we have full unemployment and the UK is carving its own path and the same people are complaining about the full employment and the "disruption" to "alliances" with Europe.

    They might be less grumpy if they could just admit they were wrong.
    We already had full employment prior to Brexit. That's why closing the door to foreign drivers, care staff, and food pickers and packers wasn't such a great idea and is likely to cause economic damage to the UK.
    We're at full employment because the open door meant the market there was an effectively infinite supply of labour, dropping the market clearing rate for wages to the floor, meaning that there'd always be a shortage of minimum wage labour.

    Importing new "drivers, care staff, pickers and packers" etc would fill the vacancies at that moment but then new vacancies would appear as those new people would need their own drivers, food etc so the labour shortage was never filled.

    Which is why there's no economic damage to closing the door. What closing the door will do is sever the link between vacancies and infinite labour meaning that wages have to rise off the floor in order to see vacancies get filled.
    Wrong then and wrong now, Philip.

    You have chosen an intuitively satisfying but tiny part of the whole picture, itself anecdotal and incomplete, and projected it as explaining everything.
    Except its not anecdotal its factual and demonstrable - and I was wrong to dismiss it in 2016 and apologised recently to isam for calling this wrong. But I did call this wrong, the effect was real, so we should accept that and move on.

    If I'm making a mistake then point out the mistake. If you can't, then 'satisfying' will have to do. As will the expectation of real pay rises for millions of people to come.
    It is anecdotal because you are taking a situation "infinite immigration" (we'll forgive you the clumsy language) and projecting from that a theoretical situation whereby they are all ready to come at the merest hint of the minimum wage rising. And from that you assume that without that "infinite" PAW, as Alan Greenspan termed it, wages would have risen.

    But that's all you've got.

    Whereas all we actually have is the number of immigrants who did come and what happened to employment and wages. Unemployment has ebbed and flowed over the past 17 years and of course we had the GFC shock. Trying within that to determine that throughout those events it was this imaginary workforce poised, like a gazelle, to leap into action in the UK is, well, anecdotal.

    Look how many people did come. Why do you suppose that ever more might have than did. Do we know that they were keeping tabs of the ONS wage data ready for the moment to mobilise? No of course we don't.

    Is why it's a satisfying theory, but anecdotal at best.

    And now you, amongst others, are lauding the fact that wages are rising now that there is a labour shortage but at least seem to have accepted the role of demand that the departed labour force played and hence we are likely to end up back where we started.
    You are showing your ignorance and misunderstanding supply and demand.

    The Aggregate Demand in this is the people in this country yes and their spending (plus net exports, investment and government expenditure).

    But Supply was not the people in this country and that is what you are failing to understand. Since hundreds of thousands of people per year could get a job from abroad and come here having already gained a job, the potential supply of labour was the people in this country plus millions of people abroad.

    By severing our labour pool from the Single Market we are in a position where aggregate demand remains roughly exactly where it was but there is a permanent contraction in the supply pool of minimum wage labour. Thus we will permanently see an increase in wages. Not because of people leaving, but because in the future the option of them arriving has been restricted.

    That is supply and demand in action. Only if you decide to exclude potential future labour from abroad as being part of our potential supply of labour pre-Brexit can you say there has been no change in supply - but we know as a matter of fact that they were a part of our potential supply.

    And no people weren't keeping tabs of the ONS wage data, but they were keeping tabs of job vacancies etc. If you were placing a job in the JobCentre in the UK then it was just a case of ticking a checkbox and that job could appear in all JobCentre equivalents and job websites etc across the entire continent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    The reason we're in the mess we're in is that Varadkar and Barnier weaponised Northern Ireland, Theresa May and Robbins were weak and caved in to "sequencing" and Grieves and co wouldn't let the UK out of the EU without a deal.

    Had any of those not been the case, then we wouldn't have ended up in the mess. But Boris found a way to square the circle: get a deal that was 'good enough for now' to get us over the line, include an exit clause for the future, deal with everything else that's a higher priority, then come back to this later to deal with it in the proper sequencing it should have always been dealt with.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    Depends on if you think this is a worse mess than he inherited. Personally I think we’re seeing a rare piece of expert realpolitik from this government. It’s pretty plain that the EU chose to weaponise the Irish problem, seems like the govt by luck or judgement found a way to muzzle that gun.
    He signed the deal in bad faith. Excuse it if you want.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    Depends on if you think this is a worse mess than he inherited. Personally I think we’re seeing a rare piece of expert realpolitik from this government. It’s pretty plain that the EU chose to weaponise the Irish problem, seems like the govt by luck or judgement found a way to muzzle that gun.
    He signed the deal in bad faith. Excuse it if you want.
    He signed the deal expecting a trusted trader scheme, on which the EU side have shown bad faith by not implementing.

    If the TT scheme was in place, we wouldn’t be having this row.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    IanB2 said:

    About time we had a thread about Boris’s principles

    His first principle is to wind up the Lefties on PB
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    kinabalu said:

    moonshine said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    Depends on if you think this is a worse mess than he inherited. Personally I think we’re seeing a rare piece of expert realpolitik from this government. It’s pretty plain that the EU chose to weaponise the Irish problem, seems like the govt by luck or judgement found a way to muzzle that gun.
    He signed the deal in bad faith. Excuse it if you want.
    OK. I excuse it. Why should we care?

    [Anyway I dispute that its bad faith. If the EU had operated in good faith and put in the Trusted Trader Scheme instead of acting like a bull in a china shop then tempers could have been calmed. They didn't, so that's that.]
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    The reason we're in the mess we're in is that Varadkar and Barnier weaponised Northern Ireland, Theresa May and Robbins were weak and caved in to "sequencing" and Grieves and co wouldn't let the UK out of the EU without a deal.

    Had any of those not been the case, then we wouldn't have ended up in the mess. But Boris found a way to square the circle: get a deal that was 'good enough for now' to get us over the line, include an exit clause for the future, deal with everything else that's a higher priority, then come back to this later to deal with it in the proper sequencing it should have always been dealt with.
    Pig meet lipstick. He lied and negotiated in bad faith to get the deal he needed to cement himself in power. You celebrate that if you want. It suits you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
    What are the odds it'll be an old school chum and divers Tory donors?
    I’ve had a wee search, even looking at Frosty’s bucket of word vomit, and can’t find anything other than wafty generalities about this independent arbitration. Not that these people avoiding doing any hard practical planning is necessarily unusual, but it bodes ill for any real intention to come up with a workable alternative.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,026

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    Johnson has nothing to gain by Brexit becoming an issue and everything to lose.

    His Brexit majority is built on the fact he was best placed to "Get Brexit done".

    The less done it looks, the more shaky that majority looks.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1448230833622589440?s=20

    I disagree with that. I think it helps him if he can get the message over that the evil EU is still messing with us.

    Normally when one wins the losers are unhappy and the winners happy, but leavers seem more animated than remainers currently. It's as if they lost.
    Brexit was significantly driven by Grumpy Old Man syndrome, being perpetually angry about x, y and z, and things not being as good as they used to be. None of those things are changing, or ever will, so many Brexiteers will always be moaning about something or other, or just modernity.
    Brexit is a nasty bout of dyspepsia, fashioned into an economic and geopolitical policy.
    The fact is that those who support the EU failed to win the argument and have ever since acted like grumpy old men and continue their angst and have so far been unable to beat Boris so resort to name calling as everything else seems to have no effect on his popularity

    We had years of Remainers saying that Britain would face economic chaos of mass unemployment and that Europe would bind us to their sphere of influence as they were so big and we were so small.

    Now we have full unemployment and the UK is carving its own path and the same people are complaining about the full employment and the "disruption" to "alliances" with Europe.

    They might be less grumpy if they could just admit they were wrong.
    We already had full employment prior to Brexit. That's why closing the door to foreign drivers, care staff, and food pickers and packers wasn't such a great idea and is likely to cause economic damage to the UK.
    We're at full employment because the open door meant the market there was an effectively infinite supply of labour, dropping the market clearing rate for wages to the floor, meaning that there'd always be a shortage of minimum wage labour.

    Importing new "drivers, care staff, pickers and packers" etc would fill the vacancies at that moment but then new vacancies would appear as those new people would need their own drivers, food etc so the labour shortage was never filled.

    Which is why there's no economic damage to closing the door. What closing the door will do is sever the link between vacancies and infinite labour meaning that wages have to rise off the floor in order to see vacancies get filled.
    Wrong then and wrong now, Philip.

    You have chosen an intuitively satisfying but tiny part of the whole picture, itself anecdotal and incomplete, and projected it as explaining everything.
    Except its not anecdotal its factual and demonstrable - and I was wrong to dismiss it in 2016 and apologised recently to isam for calling this wrong. But I did call this wrong, the effect was real, so we should accept that and move on.

    If I'm making a mistake then point out the mistake. If you can't, then 'satisfying' will have to do. As will the expectation of real pay rises for millions of people to come.
    It is anecdotal because you are taking a situation "infinite immigration" (we'll forgive you the clumsy language) and projecting from that a theoretical situation whereby they are all ready to come at the merest hint of the minimum wage rising. And from that you assume that without that "infinite" PAW, as Alan Greenspan termed it, wages would have risen.

    But that's all you've got.

    Whereas all we actually have is the number of immigrants who did come and what happened to employment and wages. Unemployment has ebbed and flowed over the past 17 years and of course we had the GFC shock. Trying within that to determine that throughout those events it was this imaginary workforce poised, like a gazelle, to leap into action in the UK is, well, anecdotal.

    Look how many people did come. Why do you suppose that ever more might have than did. Do we know that they were keeping tabs of the ONS wage data ready for the moment to mobilise? No of course we don't.

    Is why it's a satisfying theory, but anecdotal at best.

    And now you, amongst others, are lauding the fact that wages are rising now that there is a labour shortage but at least seem to have accepted the role of demand that the departed labour force played and hence we are likely to end up back where we started.
    You are showing your ignorance and misunderstanding supply and demand.

    The Aggregate Demand in this is the people in this country yes and their spending (plus net exports, investment and government expenditure).

    But Supply was not the people in this country and that is what you are failing to understand. Since hundreds of thousands of people per year could get a job from abroad and come here having already gained a job, the potential supply of labour was the people in this country plus millions of people abroad.

    By severing our labour pool from the Single Market we are in a position where aggregate demand remains roughly exactly where it was but there is a permanent contraction in the supply pool of minimum wage labour. Thus we will permanently see an increase in wages. Not because of people leaving, but because in the future the option of them arriving has been restricted.

    That is supply and demand in action. Only if you decide to exclude potential future labour from abroad as being part of our potential supply of labour pre-Brexit can you say there has been no change in supply - but we know as a matter of fact that they were a part of our potential supply.

    And no people weren't keeping tabs of the ONS wage data, but they were keeping tabs of job vacancies etc. If you were placing a job in the JobCentre in the UK then it was just a case of ticking a checkbox and that job could appear in all JobCentre equivalents and job websites etc across the entire continent.
    You are trying to conflate, or more likely misunderstanding different elements and arriving at a wrong-headed conclusion.

    Why didn't every Romanian come over here to work? As far as I can see per capita GDP in Romania has not caught up with the UK and hence according to you people should continue to come here until they have done (minus frictional costs).

    But they have not. Regardless of UK job adverts posted in Romania Today.

    Secondly, aggregate demand does not remain where it was because we have had those Romanians return home. Hence there is a labour shortage. Hence wages will rise. Hence prices will rise. Hence we are back where we started with an added hit to our exports.

    Your premise is that there was a forever potential pool of available workers ready to jet over here to work once wages popped up over a certain amount. But that is sheer speculation.

    I do enjoy discussing stuff with you Philip because you are rigorous and you make people 2x question their own assumptions. On this one, however, you are wrong. Simply.

    There are far too many variables to be able to single out any one as a gotcha. You are trying to do just that. And it is not even observable. It is your estimation of a huge, unseen, bogeyman pool of labour. It is fantasy vaguely grounded in theoretical supposition.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    And folk love him for it.
    "Tell me lies tell me sweet little lies."
    Yes, they seem to. The relationship between him and his fans is rather odd.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
    What are the odds it'll be an old school chum and divers Tory donors?
    I’ve had a wee search, even looking at Frosty’s bucket of word vomit, and can’t find anything other than wafty generalities about this independent arbitration. Not that these people avoiding doing any hard practical planning is necessarily unusual, but it bodes ill for any real intention to come up with a workable alternative.
    Whether or not you agree with either analysis - the facts on the ground are what matter above all. Maybe there is a world in which the Protocol could have worked, more sensitively implemented. But the situation has now moved on. We now face a very serious situation. The Protocol is not working. It has completely lost consent in one community in Northern Ireland. It is not doing the thing it was set up to do – protect the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. In fact it is doing the opposite. It has to change.

    "More sensitively implemented" = Trusted Trader Scheme etc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,519
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    It doesn't seem right from a Union Jack underpants sovereignty perspective for piddly little Ireland to eff up the Brexit Grand Projet but here we are.
    Tow them out to sea!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,260

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
    What are the odds it'll be an old school chum and divers Tory donors?
    I’ve had a wee search, even looking at Frosty’s bucket of word vomit, and can’t find anything other than wafty generalities about this independent arbitration. Not that these people avoiding doing any hard practical planning is necessarily unusual, but it bodes ill for any real intention to come up with a workable alternative.
    Whether or not you agree with either analysis - the facts on the ground are what matter above all. Maybe there is a world in which the Protocol could have worked, more sensitively implemented. But the situation has now moved on. We now face a very serious situation. The Protocol is not working. It has completely lost consent in one community in Northern Ireland. It is not doing the thing it was set up to do – protect the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. In fact it is doing the opposite. It has to change.

    "More sensitively implemented" = Trusted Trader Scheme etc
    Just you carry on answering questions in your own head.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097

    I'm impressed that OGH got Dominic Cummings to write a header for the blog.

    Shame Dom edited it before we could all read it.

    Given the length of his posts, no it isn't.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,550
    “Tax officials in the UK have managed to seize £26.5m previously claimed in furlough cash by an obscure self-styled entrepreneur whose non-existent business record was highlighted by the Financial Times last month.

    Granting HM Revenue & Customs a forfeiture order over five accounts at Nationwide building society at Cardiff magistrates’ court on Monday, District Judge Shomon Khan described the amounts involved as “eye-watering” and of “grave concern to the public”.

    The accounts were controlled by Rajanish Garibe, believed to be a 44-year-old Indian national, who used four companies to access furlough funds. The court heard that Garibe allegedly invented seven employees when the UK’s £70bn furlough scheme was introduced in response to the Covid-19 crisis and then proceeded to use thousands of national insurance numbers that were either fake or stolen to gain access to state funds.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/7596131c-a4bc-43f2-94a3-2fcf369bd518?fbclid=IwAR3K3Sn5eg45rrIEpdZXxAWkGUoudak5-2sd8ZOFADvaA3zUWzSXjvyud1k
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    Isn't the Channel Islands issue that the French have been fishing their dodgily and not using proper records, so now their records are being demanded they don't have any and its biting them in the arse?

    A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
    That's part of the problem - they're all in favour of a "Rules based organisation" until it applies to them.
    Which is why the UK side was so determined to have independent arbitration, rather than allow the EU court to interpret the rules.
    What is the 'independent arbitration' that Lord Frosty of Excellent Deal has proposed?
    What are the odds it'll be an old school chum and divers Tory donors?
    I’ve had a wee search, even looking at Frosty’s bucket of word vomit, and can’t find anything other than wafty generalities about this independent arbitration. Not that these people avoiding doing any hard practical planning is necessarily unusual, but it bodes ill for any real intention to come up with a workable alternative.
    Just perfectly set-up for another stand-off then.
  • dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    And folk love him for it.
    "Tell me lies tell me sweet little lies."
    It's not quite that BoJo lies as a matter of principle. If he did, it would be much easier to navigate, by adding a "not" to his every utterance. Like in those logic puzzles with guards guarding doors to the Sapphire City where the answer is "what would the other guard say?"

    It's more that he judges- brilliantly- what answer his audience wants, and serves it up with flourish and aplomb. It's an excellent way to make an excellent first impression, but not very helpful in working up which way is up and which is down.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    TOPPING said:

    kjh said:

    Johnson has nothing to gain by Brexit becoming an issue and everything to lose.

    His Brexit majority is built on the fact he was best placed to "Get Brexit done".

    The less done it looks, the more shaky that majority looks.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1448230833622589440?s=20

    I disagree with that. I think it helps him if he can get the message over that the evil EU is still messing with us.

    Normally when one wins the losers are unhappy and the winners happy, but leavers seem more animated than remainers currently. It's as if they lost.
    Brexit was significantly driven by Grumpy Old Man syndrome, being perpetually angry about x, y and z, and things not being as good as they used to be. None of those things are changing, or ever will, so many Brexiteers will always be moaning about something or other, or just modernity.
    Brexit is a nasty bout of dyspepsia, fashioned into an economic and geopolitical policy.
    The fact is that those who support the EU failed to win the argument and have ever since acted like grumpy old men and continue their angst and have so far been unable to beat Boris so resort to name calling as everything else seems to have no effect on his popularity

    We had years of Remainers saying that Britain would face economic chaos of mass unemployment and that Europe would bind us to their sphere of influence as they were so big and we were so small.

    Now we have full unemployment and the UK is carving its own path and the same people are complaining about the full employment and the "disruption" to "alliances" with Europe.

    They might be less grumpy if they could just admit they were wrong.
    We already had full employment prior to Brexit. That's why closing the door to foreign drivers, care staff, and food pickers and packers wasn't such a great idea and is likely to cause economic damage to the UK.
    We're at full employment because the open door meant the market there was an effectively infinite supply of labour, dropping the market clearing rate for wages to the floor, meaning that there'd always be a shortage of minimum wage labour.

    Importing new "drivers, care staff, pickers and packers" etc would fill the vacancies at that moment but then new vacancies would appear as those new people would need their own drivers, food etc so the labour shortage was never filled.

    Which is why there's no economic damage to closing the door. What closing the door will do is sever the link between vacancies and infinite labour meaning that wages have to rise off the floor in order to see vacancies get filled.
    Wrong then and wrong now, Philip.

    You have chosen an intuitively satisfying but tiny part of the whole picture, itself anecdotal and incomplete, and projected it as explaining everything.
    Except its not anecdotal its factual and demonstrable - and I was wrong to dismiss it in 2016 and apologised recently to isam for calling this wrong. But I did call this wrong, the effect was real, so we should accept that and move on.

    If I'm making a mistake then point out the mistake. If you can't, then 'satisfying' will have to do. As will the expectation of real pay rises for millions of people to come.
    It is anecdotal because you are taking a situation "infinite immigration" (we'll forgive you the clumsy language) and projecting from that a theoretical situation whereby they are all ready to come at the merest hint of the minimum wage rising. And from that you assume that without that "infinite" PAW, as Alan Greenspan termed it, wages would have risen.

    But that's all you've got.

    Whereas all we actually have is the number of immigrants who did come and what happened to employment and wages. Unemployment has ebbed and flowed over the past 17 years and of course we had the GFC shock. Trying within that to determine that throughout those events it was this imaginary workforce poised, like a gazelle, to leap into action in the UK is, well, anecdotal.

    Look how many people did come. Why do you suppose that ever more might have than did. Do we know that they were keeping tabs of the ONS wage data ready for the moment to mobilise? No of course we don't.

    Is why it's a satisfying theory, but anecdotal at best.

    And now you, amongst others, are lauding the fact that wages are rising now that there is a labour shortage but at least seem to have accepted the role of demand that the departed labour force played and hence we are likely to end up back where we started.
    You are showing your ignorance and misunderstanding supply and demand.

    The Aggregate Demand in this is the people in this country yes and their spending (plus net exports, investment and government expenditure).

    But Supply was not the people in this country and that is what you are failing to understand. Since hundreds of thousands of people per year could get a job from abroad and come here having already gained a job, the potential supply of labour was the people in this country plus millions of people abroad.

    By severing our labour pool from the Single Market we are in a position where aggregate demand remains roughly exactly where it was but there is a permanent contraction in the supply pool of minimum wage labour. Thus we will permanently see an increase in wages. Not because of people leaving, but because in the future the option of them arriving has been restricted.

    That is supply and demand in action. Only if you decide to exclude potential future labour from abroad as being part of our potential supply of labour pre-Brexit can you say there has been no change in supply - but we know as a matter of fact that they were a part of our potential supply.

    And no people weren't keeping tabs of the ONS wage data, but they were keeping tabs of job vacancies etc. If you were placing a job in the JobCentre in the UK then it was just a case of ticking a checkbox and that job could appear in all JobCentre equivalents and job websites etc across the entire continent.
    You are trying to conflate, or more likely misunderstanding different elements and arriving at a wrong-headed conclusion.

    Why didn't every Romanian come over here to work? As far as I can see per capita GDP in Romania has not caught up with the UK and hence according to you people should continue to come here until they have done (minus frictional costs).

    But they have not. Regardless of UK job adverts posted in Romania Today.

    Secondly, aggregate demand does not remain where it was because we have had those Romanians return home. Hence there is a labour shortage. Hence wages will rise. Hence prices will rise. Hence we are back where we started with an added hit to our exports.

    Your premise is that there was a forever potential pool of available workers ready to jet over here to work once wages popped up over a certain amount. But that is sheer speculation.

    I do enjoy discussing stuff with you Philip because you are rigorous and you make people 2x question their own assumptions. On this one, however, you are wrong. Simply.

    There are far too many variables to be able to single out any one as a gotcha. You are trying to do just that. And it is not even observable. It is your estimation of a huge, unseen, bogeyman pool of labour. It is fantasy vaguely grounded in theoretical supposition.
    Goodness gracious me, you're really not getting this are you? We do not have a labour shortage because people have gone home. Aggregate demand doesn't drop since emigration is not the reason we have a shortage. We have a labour shortage because this country has had a systemic and permanent labour shortage for years. That's how our population has added ten million people without going to ten million unemployment, because every year people are added and jobs created.

    There would be a labour shortage even if we were still in the EU the only difference is that there would be people immigrating to fill jobs in the short-term masking the labour shortage amongst the churn of the labour market.

    The only thing that has changed in the pool of available labour has been cut-off meaning we have to face up to why there is a labour shortage.

    There is no estimation of a "huge unseen pool of labour" (I won't distinguish the bogeyman comment) there was a literally real huge and seen pool of labour and it has a name: The Single Market. Free Movement of People is one of the four pillars of that market.

    Finally "Why didn't every Romanian come over here to work?" is simply: because the UK never had enough jobs to attract every Romanian. But it had enough to attract a lot every year and every year that passed meant more able to come since it became a self-fullfilling prophecy that more arriving means more jobs created rather than filling shortages. The population of Romania has been consistently falling for years, its down on its peak by nearly 20% already.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,524
    isam said:

    “Tax officials in the UK have managed to seize £26.5m previously claimed in furlough cash by an obscure self-styled entrepreneur whose non-existent business record was highlighted by the Financial Times last month.

    Granting HM Revenue & Customs a forfeiture order over five accounts at Nationwide building society at Cardiff magistrates’ court on Monday, District Judge Shomon Khan described the amounts involved as “eye-watering” and of “grave concern to the public”.

    The accounts were controlled by Rajanish Garibe, believed to be a 44-year-old Indian national, who used four companies to access furlough funds. The court heard that Garibe allegedly invented seven employees when the UK’s £70bn furlough scheme was introduced in response to the Covid-19 crisis and then proceeded to use thousands of national insurance numbers that were either fake or stolen to gain access to state funds.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/7596131c-a4bc-43f2-94a3-2fcf369bd518?fbclid=IwAR3K3Sn5eg45rrIEpdZXxAWkGUoudak5-2sd8ZOFADvaA3zUWzSXjvyud1k

    Wonder how many more of these we'll see?
    Perhaps the Nationwide in Cardiff was an error in retrospect?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,509
    A whole header on the benefits of Brexit?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097

    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    I see there's no tricky situation Varadkar cannot make worse:

    TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short

    He’s stating the obvious . Given the U.K. trashed a deal it signed under 2 years ago there’s very little trust in the EU that it will honour anything it signs upto. .
    The reason we're in this mess is that Varadkar trashed the work Enda Kenny had started and said "let Brussels sort it".

    Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
    The reason we're in this mess is that Boris Johnson, needing a Brexit deal for his Brexit general election, signed up to terms he always planned to renege on.

    He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.

    This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
    And folk love him for it.
    "Tell me lies tell me sweet little lies."
    It's not quite that BoJo lies as a matter of principle. If he did, it would be much easier to navigate, by adding a "not" to his every utterance. Like in those logic puzzles with guards guarding doors to the Sapphire City where the answer is "what would the other guard say?"

    It's more that he judges- brilliantly- what answer his audience wants, and serves it up with flourish and aplomb. It's an excellent way to make an excellent first impression, but not very helpful in working up which way is up and which is down.
    That seems to be the case, though he's quite prepared to lie when it suits.
    Since we seem to be on Dom's case this afternoon, here's his view...

    No what Ive said does NOT mean 'the PM was lying in GE2019', he never had a scoobydoo what the deal he signed meant. He never understood what leaving Customs Union meant until 11/20. In 1/20 he was babbling 'Id never have signed it if Id understood it' (but that WAS a lie)
    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1448059195807440902
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    Way offtopic, but William Shatner will boldly go to space in about 10 minutes, and become the oldest person to do so, onboard Blue Origin rocket.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uEhdlIor-do
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,503
    Government seems to be lurching from one crisis to the next tbh.

    The Northern Ireland protocol seems like a massive fuck up that entirely destroys any credibility we had as a country to negotiate in good faith and abide by the law. To use Northern Ireland as a pawn to win a whopping majority is absolutely disgraceful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,575
    edited October 13
    It is surprising that Conservatives aren’t more worried about our PM treating the rest of the world as he has treated his women, and so progressively destroying the centuries-old reputation our country has for keeping its word and respecting the rule of law and fair play.

    I can’t help think that if Corbyn has even taken a few tentative steps down a similar road, the PB Tories would be frothing blood by now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,598

    Government seems to be lurching from one crisis to the next tbh.

    The Northern Ireland protocol seems like a massive fuck up that entirely destroys any credibility we had as a country to negotiate in good faith and abide by the law. To use Northern Ireland as a pawn to win a whopping majority is absolutely disgraceful.

    The EU was happy to use NI as a stick to beat us with for 4 years too. Its a terrible problem, that can be solved by people not being dicks. On both sides.

    Oddly we seem to have signed a lot of trade deals over the last year (albeit most are rollovers) so our word can't be that lacking in credibility.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,575
    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, but William Shatner will boldly go to space in about 10 minutes, and become the oldest person to do so, onboard Blue Origin rocket.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uEhdlIor-do

    Hopefully he’ll also get the record for the oldest person to come back from outer space…. ;)
  • I'd love to see Corbyn put the rest of the world in his sidecar and drive it to a communist country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, but William Shatner will boldly go to space in about 10 minutes, and become the oldest person to do so, onboard Blue Origin rocket.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uEhdlIor-do

    Hopefully he’ll also get the record for the oldest person to come back from outer space…. ;)
    Well he boldly went. Let’s see if he can boldly return!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, but William Shatner will boldly go to space in about 10 minutes, and become the oldest person to do so, onboard Blue Origin rocket.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=uEhdlIor-do

    Isn't that oldie go ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,097
    Increased energy prices are helping S Korean steelmakers increase their profits...
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2021/10/693_316953.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    Boldly returned to Earth!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,561
    Really good to see the legendary Denny Crane go into space.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,919
    IanB2 said:

    It is surprising that Conservatives aren’t more worried about our PM treating the rest of the world as he has treated his women, and so progressively destroying the centuries-old reputation our country has for keeping its word and respecting the rule of law and fair play.

    The tories aren't worried about Johnson's dishonesty; they admire it.

    It's similar to their smirking regard for his psychotic concupiscence. He behaves in a manner that transcends their middle class wussiness.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    FPT - I'm not surprised to read that one of those arrested is the wife of a TfL executive director.

    Many Extinction Rebellion activists are extremely wealthy people, or married to those who are, who use their privilege to exercise their own consciences and make names for themselves at the expense of everyone else.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871
    Nigelb said:

    Increased energy prices are helping S Korean steelmakers increase their profits...
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2021/10/693_316953.html

    French steel producers will probably also benefit as global steel prices rise but French energy costs don't.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    This is exactly the sentiment of what the UK proposed in 2019, when the EU rejected it out of hand. So why now and not then?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58871221
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Royale, be fair. You have to be bloody wealthy to be able to afford socialism.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,871

    This is exactly the sentiment of what the UK proposed in 2019, when the EU rejected it out of hand. So why now and not then?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58871221

    Varadker has been sidelined in the Irish government, the EU has lost its no deal leverage over the UK and most of all the EU completely misunderstood the need to keep both sides happy and have been shocked that the loyalists are happy to arm themselves and bomb/shoot EU officials. It's something lots of people in the UK said would be likely in the event of this settlement with the blame in NI falling on the EU.

    I think what the EU has proposed plus some kind of arbitration process where the ECJ has a role but doesn't have final say makes the most sense.
This discussion has been closed.