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Very well said.
TANÁISTE LEO VARADKAR has warned political leaders not to enter any agreements with the British Government until they are confident it will keep its promises.
https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-warns-over-agreements-with-uk-5573510-Oct2021/?utm_source=twitter_short
Compare and contrast the much smoother progress over Gibraltar where the UK, Gibraltar & Spain led the work, referring back to the EU. Similarly fishing rights - decades of peace & agreement in the Channel Islands when done bilaterally now a clusterf*ck with the EU & UK involved.
Shame Dom edited it before we could all read it.
A bit like those people who were not getting wages paid through the books then suddenly furlough arrived and they have no income.
They also helped screw Theresa May's administration by their inflexibility so they really should take a look in the looking glass.
But that's all you've got.
Whereas all we actually have is the number of immigrants who did come and what happened to employment and wages. Unemployment has ebbed and flowed over the past 17 years and of course we had the GFC shock. Trying within that to determine that throughout those events it was this imaginary workforce poised, like a gazelle, to leap into action in the UK is, well, anecdotal.
Look how many people did come. Why do you suppose that ever more might have than did. Do we know that they were keeping tabs of the ONS wage data ready for the moment to mobilise? No of course we don't.
Is why it's a satisfying theory, but anecdotal at best.
And now you, amongst others, are lauding the fact that wages are rising now that there is a labour shortage but at least seem to have accepted the role of demand that the departed labour force played and hence we are likely to end up back where we started.
He does whatever works for HIM at any given time. Chooses the line of least resistance and minimum effort. Cross every other bridge when he comes to it.
This is his MO and his core technique in implementing it is lying. It comes as natural to him as swimming to a goldfish. He's a purveyor of lies. He opens that mouth of his and out they pour.
"Tell me lies tell me sweet little lies."
The Aggregate Demand in this is the people in this country yes and their spending (plus net exports, investment and government expenditure).
But Supply was not the people in this country and that is what you are failing to understand. Since hundreds of thousands of people per year could get a job from abroad and come here having already gained a job, the potential supply of labour was the people in this country plus millions of people abroad.
By severing our labour pool from the Single Market we are in a position where aggregate demand remains roughly exactly where it was but there is a permanent contraction in the supply pool of minimum wage labour. Thus we will permanently see an increase in wages. Not because of people leaving, but because in the future the option of them arriving has been restricted.
That is supply and demand in action. Only if you decide to exclude potential future labour from abroad as being part of our potential supply of labour pre-Brexit can you say there has been no change in supply - but we know as a matter of fact that they were a part of our potential supply.
And no people weren't keeping tabs of the ONS wage data, but they were keeping tabs of job vacancies etc. If you were placing a job in the JobCentre in the UK then it was just a case of ticking a checkbox and that job could appear in all JobCentre equivalents and job websites etc across the entire continent.
Had any of those not been the case, then we wouldn't have ended up in the mess. But Boris found a way to square the circle: get a deal that was 'good enough for now' to get us over the line, include an exit clause for the future, deal with everything else that's a higher priority, then come back to this later to deal with it in the proper sequencing it should have always been dealt with.
If the TT scheme was in place, we wouldn’t be having this row.
[Anyway I dispute that its bad faith. If the EU had operated in good faith and put in the Trusted Trader Scheme instead of acting like a bull in a china shop then tempers could have been calmed. They didn't, so that's that.]
Why didn't every Romanian come over here to work? As far as I can see per capita GDP in Romania has not caught up with the UK and hence according to you people should continue to come here until they have done (minus frictional costs).
But they have not. Regardless of UK job adverts posted in Romania Today.
Secondly, aggregate demand does not remain where it was because we have had those Romanians return home. Hence there is a labour shortage. Hence wages will rise. Hence prices will rise. Hence we are back where we started with an added hit to our exports.
Your premise is that there was a forever potential pool of available workers ready to jet over here to work once wages popped up over a certain amount. But that is sheer speculation.
I do enjoy discussing stuff with you Philip because you are rigorous and you make people 2x question their own assumptions. On this one, however, you are wrong. Simply.
There are far too many variables to be able to single out any one as a gotcha. You are trying to do just that. And it is not even observable. It is your estimation of a huge, unseen, bogeyman pool of labour. It is fantasy vaguely grounded in theoretical supposition.
"More sensitively implemented" = Trusted Trader Scheme etc
Granting HM Revenue & Customs a forfeiture order over five accounts at Nationwide building society at Cardiff magistrates’ court on Monday, District Judge Shomon Khan described the amounts involved as “eye-watering” and of “grave concern to the public”.
The accounts were controlled by Rajanish Garibe, believed to be a 44-year-old Indian national, who used four companies to access furlough funds. The court heard that Garibe allegedly invented seven employees when the UK’s £70bn furlough scheme was introduced in response to the Covid-19 crisis and then proceeded to use thousands of national insurance numbers that were either fake or stolen to gain access to state funds.”
https://www.ft.com/content/7596131c-a4bc-43f2-94a3-2fcf369bd518?fbclid=IwAR3K3Sn5eg45rrIEpdZXxAWkGUoudak5-2sd8ZOFADvaA3zUWzSXjvyud1k
It's more that he judges- brilliantly- what answer his audience wants, and serves it up with flourish and aplomb. It's an excellent way to make an excellent first impression, but not very helpful in working up which way is up and which is down.
There would be a labour shortage even if we were still in the EU the only difference is that there would be people immigrating to fill jobs in the short-term masking the labour shortage amongst the churn of the labour market.
The only thing that has changed in the pool of available labour has been cut-off meaning we have to face up to why there is a labour shortage.
There is no estimation of a "huge unseen pool of labour" (I won't distinguish the bogeyman comment) there was a literally real huge and seen pool of labour and it has a name: The Single Market. Free Movement of People is one of the four pillars of that market.
Finally "Why didn't every Romanian come over here to work?" is simply: because the UK never had enough jobs to attract every Romanian. But it had enough to attract a lot every year and every year that passed meant more able to come since it became a self-fullfilling prophecy that more arriving means more jobs created rather than filling shortages. The population of Romania has been consistently falling for years, its down on its peak by nearly 20% already.
Perhaps the Nationwide in Cardiff was an error in retrospect?
Since we seem to be on Dom's case this afternoon, here's his view...
No what Ive said does NOT mean 'the PM was lying in GE2019', he never had a scoobydoo what the deal he signed meant. He never understood what leaving Customs Union meant until 11/20. In 1/20 he was babbling 'Id never have signed it if Id understood it' (but that WAS a lie)
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1448059195807440902
https://twitter.com/bbcsport/status/1448268295367536642?s=21
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uEhdlIor-do
The Northern Ireland protocol seems like a massive fuck up that entirely destroys any credibility we had as a country to negotiate in good faith and abide by the law. To use Northern Ireland as a pawn to win a whopping majority is absolutely disgraceful.
I can’t help think that if Corbyn has even taken a few tentative steps down a similar road, the PB Tories would be frothing blood by now.
Oddly we seem to have signed a lot of trade deals over the last year (albeit most are rollovers) so our word can't be that lacking in credibility.
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2021/10/693_316953.html
It's similar to their smirking regard for his psychotic concupiscence. He behaves in a manner that transcends their middle class wussiness.
Many Extinction Rebellion activists are extremely wealthy people, or married to those who are, who use their privilege to exercise their own consciences and make names for themselves at the expense of everyone else.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-58871221
I think what the EU has proposed plus some kind of arbitration process where the ECJ has a role but doesn't have final say makes the most sense.