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The big speech reaction – politicalbetting.com

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  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    Benn was a good speaker for the Left too. Even better debater, even if I rarely agreed with any of his analysis or policy prescriptions.
    Apologies. I see that Benn has already been discussed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    OK, it must be me, a centrist woke w***** with no sense of humour.

    On the other hand I do find Mogg spontaneously witty.
    Mogg has a good dry sense of humour, and can laugh at himself
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313

    OK, it must be me, a centrist woke w***** with no sense of humour.

    On the other hand I do find Mogg spontaneously witty.
    Rees-Mogg is outstanding. Not a prospective PM though (as such told so).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    IshmaelZ said:

    Our own 79th Regiment of Foot fought in skirts throughout. Was the historian saying AH had bad ideas, or good ones he failed to implement?
    So the Black Shorts wasn't even closer to the knuckle than we thought?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Same reason you keep on banging on about the woke so often.

    It is important to them.
    Nah. They say it almost reflexively (unthinkingly) like please and thank you.

    It's odd.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Same reason you keep on banging on about the woke so often.

    It is important to them.
    Nah. They say it almost reflexively (unthinkingly) like please and thank you.

    It's odd.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    143 deaths today. Still quite a few people dying every day


    Who are they? Has anyone broken down the death stats? Is it the elderly, the co-morbid, or are young healthy people also succumbing? And how many are vaxed?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Leon said:

    Unpleasantly sharp rise in cases. Let's hope it's anomalous

    "33450. Wow. Up 15%. Not sure what that means"

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445766495825317892?s=20

    A lot of bad weather last week kept people indoors.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Leon said:

    Unpleasantly sharp rise in cases. Let's hope it's anomalous

    "33450. Wow. Up 15%. Not sure what that means"

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445766495825317892?s=20

    Cases by specimen data are down, again....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Seems a good summary...


    Torsten Bell
    @TorstenBell
    ·
    3h
    Conference season =
    Tories: so confident Boris doesn't bother to have anything to say, partly inspired by...
    Labour: attempts to dig themselves out of perpetual navel gazing via another week of... navel gazing
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    Foxy said:

    A lot of bad weather last week kept people indoors.
    As we head into winter..... hmm
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So the Black Shorts wasn't even closer to the knuckle than we thought?
    Well, it kind of was. I would have bet on that Hitler quotation being a fabrication, but it seems to be genuine.

    Just imagine, in the year of the Wannsee Conference, being comfortable banging on about leather shorts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296
    Nigelb said:

    I gave that a like, even though it comes from a perspective unduly generous towards the judgement of the pubic before they are 'infantilised'.

    This is a bit closer to the reality:
    https://chrishayes.org/articles/decision-makers/

    In particular, WRT the appeal of Boris, this bit:
    ...Political junkies tend to assume that undecided voters are undecided because they don't care enough to make up their minds. But while I found that most undecided voters are, as one Kerry aide put it to The New York Times, "relatively low-information, relatively disengaged," the lack of engagement wasn't a sign that they didn't care. After all, if they truly didn't care, they wouldn't have been planning to vote. The undecided voters I talked to did care about politics, or at least judged it to be important; they just didn't enjoy politics...
    Ok, I think I see what you mean. Rather than corrupting us is he providing what we want? I guess if what you're looking for in politics is an enjoyable spectacle you'll likely prefer Boris Johnson to most other proponents of the craft.

    Betting hat back on, I think he'll take a great deal of shifting. You can get 1.55 on Cons most seats at the next GE and that imo is spectacular. I'd put grannies and orphans into that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Leon said:

    Unpleasantly sharp rise in cases. Let's hope it's anomalous

    "33450. Wow. Up 15%. Not sure what that means"

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445766495825317892?s=20

    My daughter had Freshers week last week, after missing out last year. Was expecting a temporary surge as a result in the 18-24 age group.

    Thinking I'll go and visit her in mid-November when it should have passed the worst.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Yes, I think that Britain will survive whatever Johnson does to us. I just see his time in power as a huge missed opportunity, where we have all these terrible problems which he has no actual ideas about solving, so we will get all this empty rhetoric but nothing will really change. And of course I think Brexit is a mistake, and hold him responsible, but it's not the end of the world. Whereas I genuinely think there is a decent chance that America wouldn't survive as a liberal democracy if Trump got hold of power again.
    I’m more pessimistic than you.

    The financial crisis really screwed the U.K.

    The Coalition did a good job steadying the ship, but they were too aggressive on austerity, and QE (and some deliberate policy) further inflated housing into the stratosphere.

    On top of that unsteady equilibrium, Brexit has proved to be a major cultural and economic rupture, and has put permanent sandbags on the economy.

    Boris talks about improving living standards, but he is busy raising taxes, stoking inflation, and impeding business productivity.

    We now face the massive supply shock of the Covid hangover, and the government’s policy is to make it worse, not better.

    I expect the U.K. to be the “sick man” of the OECD until we have a government with something approaching a serious plan for growth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    39,851 cases

    141 deaths

    It is still out there
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    The PB Tories would cite it as evidence of BBC lefty bias that he wasn't given a go in the Radio 4 6:30pm comedy slot.

    The other day Smithson Jnr recommended a talk by a historian on why Hitler lost WWII, which included this quotation from the Nazi dictator:

    "having to change into long trousers was always a misery to me. Even with a temperature of 10 below zero, I used to go about in lederhosen. The feeling of freedom they give you is wonderful. Abandoning my shorts was one of the biggest sacrifices I had to make… Anything up to five degrees below zero I don't even notice. Quite a number of young people of today already wear shorts all the year round; it is just a question of habit. In the future, I shall have an SS Highland Brigade in lederhosen."

    I'm the sort of person who will wear shorts all year round. It shouldn't be of any consequence that I have this in common with Hitler, it has no bearing on anti-Semitism. And yet, it makes me feel a bit uncomfortable.
    Year round short wearers are deemed suspicious somehow, I know a few of that type.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Leon said:

    39,851 cases

    141 deaths

    It is still out there

    Leon: 1

    Equally worrying! :)

    Still out there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Leon said:

    39,851 cases

    141 deaths

    It is still out there

    Schoolkids and their parents.

    Our farrier got (1st I think) vaccinated yesterday, I expect to make travel easier for himself.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    IshmaelZ said:

    Our own 79th Regiment of Foot fought in skirts throughout. Was the historian saying AH had bad ideas, or good ones he failed to implement?
    It was cited by way of explanation for the Germans being unprepared for the entirely predictable Russian winter. One of the occasions when his ideology conflicted with more rational steps that would have helped Germany win.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    143 deaths today. Still quite a few people dying every day


    Who are they? Has anyone broken down the death stats? Is it the elderly, the co-morbid, or are young healthy people also succumbing? And how many are vaxed?

    And is it predominantly 'dying with' or 'dying of'?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Nah. They say it almost reflexively (unthinkingly) like please and thank you.

    It's odd.

    You do seem to run into these people.
    A bit like McCarthy and the Communists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    OK, it must be me, a centrist woke w***** with no sense of humour.

    On the other hand I do find Mogg spontaneously witty.
    He can be funny generally but not ticke everyone's funny bone. Some of his schtick works, some doesn't. I recall a John Oliver bit about the awkward feeling when Trump does something genuinely funny that makes him laugh, despite hating him so much - though in that case sometimes it is Trump intentionally joking, as when he mocked Rubio's sweating, and other times it is just when he does something really weird that is funny intentionally.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,211
    kle4 said:

    Year round short wearers are deemed suspicious somehow, I know a few of that type.
    Those that wear, or those who deem ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    TimT said:

    And is it predominantly 'dying with' or 'dying of'?
    Yes, indeed. Good question
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,152
    +328 deaths in Romania today (equivalent of 1k in the UK). It looks like the Eastern European countries with low vaccination rates will have a terrible winter.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    So the Black Shorts wasn't even closer to the knuckle than we thought?
    That's the other thing with Johnson, if you've read PG Wodehouse you know that the source material is so much better.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Reading through the thread a myriad of comments about Boris - many bemused about his appeal, some irritated that he's a toff, several detecting change in the public mood [ though not yet reflected in the polls apparently]. Seems overall as if the conference has done its job. Opponents no nearer understanding either him or his appeal - and flailing around with the usual snide remarks, belittling his supporters, waiting for the polls to turn, maybe hoping just a little for catatrophes ahead to derail the government.

    All in all a good result. Let's see what the future will bring..
  • Leon said:

    39,851 cases

    141 deaths

    It is still out there

    The good news is that 15% a week growth (if that's what it is) is a doubling time of 5 weeks- plenty of time to intervene. It's not the doubling in 3 days we had last spring.

    The bad news is that 1 doubling still takes us to 80k cases and over 250 deaths.

    We could have got the numbers a lot lower over the summer by being a bit more patient.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    +328 deaths in Romania today (equivalent of 1k in the UK). It looks like the Eastern European countries with low vaccination rates will have a terrible winter.

    And 929 in Russia (their highest yet? Officially?) and Ukraine also worsening, sharply

    Hurry up with the bloody boosters, Boris
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    The PB Tories would cite it as evidence of BBC lefty bias that he wasn't given a go in the Radio 4 6:30pm comedy slot.

    The other day Smithson Jnr recommended a talk by a historian on why Hitler lost WWII, which included this quotation from the Nazi dictator:

    "having to change into long trousers was always a misery to me. Even with a temperature of 10 below zero, I used to go about in lederhosen. The feeling of freedom they give you is wonderful. Abandoning my shorts was one of the biggest sacrifices I had to make… Anything up to five degrees below zero I don't even notice. Quite a number of young people of today already wear shorts all the year round; it is just a question of habit. In the future, I shall have an SS Highland Brigade in lederhosen."

    I'm the sort of person who will wear shorts all year round. It shouldn't be of any consequence that I have this in common with Hitler, it has no bearing on anti-Semitism. And yet, it makes me feel a bit uncomfortable.
    Fear not. I bet Hitler couldn't knit for toffee.

    On which point I will confess something shameful to you. For a long time, and because of that, you talking about knitting a lot, I thought you were a woman.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Nigelb said:

    Those that wear, or those who deem ?
    Both.

    Of course being serious no one thinks it is suspicious, but people wearing shorts is seen as irregular to a degree. It makes me reflect on what we will all wear as we age. In my head old people dress a certain way, but there's no reason for casual wear that I should change my clothing habits from age 30-80, so we surely will see a lot more elderly people in hoodies etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    It was cited by way of explanation for the Germans being unprepared for the entirely predictable Russian winter. One of the occasions when his ideology conflicted with more rational steps that would have helped Germany win.
    This is Andrew Roberts, I take it? I don't think it is a very strong point, given the prevalence of lederhosen/ kilts year round in notably cold highland areas. I'd invade Russia in good quality lederhosen provided the rest of my clothing was up to scratch.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    The good news is that 15% a week growth (if that's what it is) is a doubling time of 5 weeks- plenty of time to intervene. It's not the doubling in 3 days we had last spring.

    The bad news is that 1 doubling still takes us to 80k cases and over 250 deaths.

    We could have got the numbers a lot lower over the summer by being a bit more patient.
    By intervene you mean lockdown?

    I just can't hack another winter of lockdown. Nor can many people I know. We've discussed it. Just wouldn't do it

    Then what else?
  • I’m more pessimistic than you.

    The financial crisis really screwed the U.K.

    The Coalition did a good job steadying the ship, but they were too aggressive on austerity, and QE (and some deliberate policy) further inflated housing into the stratosphere.

    On top of that unsteady equilibrium, Brexit has proved to be a major cultural and economic rupture, and has put permanent sandbags on the economy.

    Boris talks about improving living standards, but he is busy raising taxes, stoking inflation, and impeding business productivity.

    We now face the massive supply shock of the Covid hangover, and the government’s policy is to make it worse, not better.

    I expect the U.K. to be the “sick man” of the OECD until we have a government with something approaching a serious plan for growth.
    And then the question is- how bad do things have to get for the public to want a government with such a plan?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    TimT said:

    And is it predominantly 'dying with' or 'dying of'?
    There were figures released a few weeks ago that had the breakdown as only 2% fully vaccinated (if I remember correctly). Given the relative sizes of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations it suggests that most deaths are dying of Covid, but to all intents and purposes only those refusing, or unable, to be vaccinated.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    kle4 said:

    Year round short wearers are deemed suspicious somehow, I know a few of that type.
    Yes, I see a fair number of men of a certain age who wear shorts whatever the weather. Usually saggy cargo shorts with full side pockets. It isn't a flattering look.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    Kinnock was a great orator, spine tingling to watch in his prime. But too much of a gasbag when answering questions. By contrast, Blair couldn't deliver a speech too well but was intensely persuasive and fluent in more normal conversation. He refused to talk down to people and could communicate complex ideas simply. Like Bill Clinton in that regard (but not as good). Cameron was a bit like this but too glib and I thought struggled to look empathetic. Thatcher was a bad orator but very good at communicating ideas conversationally and also never talked down to the audience. Johnson is funnier than any of them (especially Thatcher who didn't understand jokes and couldn't deliver them when they were written for her) but can't communicate ideas except the most facile ones, and uses language and humour mostly to deflect questions, not answer them. I think he is fundamentally dishonest, but I certainly understand the argument that he is entertaining.
    It often comes up when people talk about people being 'good' at making speeches, and various speakers who are popular and entertaining downgraded for various reasons to do with oratorical skill or whatever, but at the end of the day what counts is if people listen to them, and take something away from it, and there are various ways of achieving that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910

    There were figures released a few weeks ago that had the breakdown as only 2% fully vaccinated (if I remember correctly). Given the relative sizes of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations it suggests that most deaths are dying of Covid, but to all intents and purposes only those refusing, or unable, to be vaccinated.
    And age? And co-morbidity?

    There's an odd lack of such data (or I can't easily find it, anyhow)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Leon said:

    And 929 in Russia (their highest yet? Officially?) and Ukraine also worsening, sharply

    Hurry up with the bloody boosters, Boris
    Meanwhile, some US public health officials are leery of the emphasis on boosters

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/06/biden-covid-experts-boosters-515175
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Carnyx said:

    Interesting analysis, from the GRaun feed, that

    "In some respects Boris Johnson was presenting himself as the heir to Margaret Thatcher in his conference speech, as he claimed to have the “guts” to address problems bedevilling the British economy for decades (see 9.17am), but rightwing Thatcherites in thinktanks and campaign groups have been among the strongest critics of the speech.

    Mark Littlewood, who runs the Institute of Economic Affairs, accused Johnson of just offering “more state intervention and spending”. He said:

    'The prime minister says he wants a high wage economy. That requires gains in productivity, which we would see if the government started deregulating rather than over-regulating.

    He says he wants a low tax economy, but his government is likely to oversee the highest burden of tax since the Attlee post-war socialist government.

    Unnecessarily restricting the supply of labour may lead to wage increases, but these will be passed on in price increases. A strategy to make things more expensive will not create a genuinely high wage economy, merely the illusion of one.

    Boris Johnson’s rhetoric is always optimistic and enterprising, but insofar as there were actual policies behind it, they seemed to involve yet more state intervention and spending.'

    The Adam Smith Institute, another free market thinktank, said that Johnson’s speech was “vacuous and economically illiterate”, that it set out “an agenda for levelling down”, and that the PM’s policies were inflationary.."

    The TaxPayers’ Alliance and CBI also unhappy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/oct/06/boris-johnson-tory-conference-speech-economic-model-universal-credit-latest-updates-politics-live
    Is that the first time the Guardian have ever approvingly quoted Mark Littlewood from the IEA?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    You do seem to run into these people.
    A bit like McCarthy and the Communists.
    I got it thrown at my yesterday for asking about exfoliating facewash in Boots.

    I'm not making this up.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited October 2021

    And then the question is- how bad do things have to get for the public to want a government with such a plan?
    Dunno. But given the structure of British voting demography, it could be a v long time.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    Meanwhile, some US public health officials are leery of the emphasis on boosters

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/06/biden-covid-experts-boosters-515175
    BTW, an American reminded me that the proper spelling of 'booster' in British English is 'Borchestershire'.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Leon said:

    Unpleasantly sharp rise in cases. Let's hope it's anomalous

    "33450. Wow. Up 15%. Not sure what that means"

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445766495825317892?s=20

    It means the Uni's have gone back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Foxy said:

    Yes, I see a fair number of men of a certain age who wear shorts whatever the weather. Usually saggy cargo shorts with full side pockets. It isn't a flattering look.
    True, but should we not celebrate that people are comfortable with themselves and how they look, rather than caring about how they present to others?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Leon said:

    Yes, indeed. Good question
    ONS has data.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/


    Almost all deaths are age 60+ at moment.
  • Leon said:

    By intervene you mean lockdown?

    I just can't hack another winter of lockdown. Nor can many people I know. We've discussed it. Just wouldn't do it

    Then what else?
    A bit longer with the masks. A bit more active pushing of "It's summer. Enjoy yourself outside".

    But mainly being proactive at getting the holdouts and youngsters vaccinated. Send teams of jabbers door-to-door to persuade people.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    I got it thrown at my yesterday for asking about exfoliating facewash in Boots.

    I'm not making this up.
    I don’t believe you are making it up.

    Is there something in your appearance or demeanour that seems to trigger young women, do you think?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    kinabalu said:

    Fear not. I bet Hitler couldn't knit for toffee.

    On which point I will confess something shameful to you. For a long time, and because of that, you talking about knitting a lot, I thought you were a woman.
    Not being the sort of guy who shares pictures of his erect member with strangers on the internet it does create some doubt as to my gender and, since I have no reason to be offended, you should have no reason to feel ashamed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    TimT said:

    And is it predominantly 'dying with' or 'dying of'?
    It would also be interesting to know the average age of COVID deaths by vaccination status. The ONS give us the age split for all COVID deaths:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths#deaths-by-age

    Age \ Week ending: 12-Feb, 24-Sep
    Under 1 year: 0%, 0%
    1 to 14: 0%, 0%
    15 to 24: 0%, 0%
    25 to 44: 1%, 4%
    45 to 54: 3%, 5%
    55 to 64: 8%, 13%
    65 to 74: 16%, 17%
    75 to 84: 29%, 31%
    85+: 42%, 29%

    We can clearly see the effect of the vaccine with under 64s making up 22% of deaths in the most recent week of data compared with 12% back in February.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432

    You do seem to run into these people.
    A bit like McCarthy and the Communists.
    Yes, very weird circles. I have never heard anyone say patriarchy.

    CR is truly the Wokefinder General with his uncanny divining skills.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Leon said:

    143 deaths today. Still quite a few people dying every day


    Who are they? Has anyone broken down the death stats? Is it the elderly, the co-morbid, or are young healthy people also succumbing? And how many are vaxed?

    For England at least you can see over 60 vs under 60 and its pretty stark.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Looks like its the parents...



    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    Seems like a key driver might be Peak-Lifers. So if there's a genuine effect here it might be some modest additional spillover, arriving with a lag. Let's see if that Green line passes its early September peak before we start thinking it's important, eh?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    I'm on a bus. A group of acne-ridden 17 and 18-year old lads behind me. Chains around necks and England football team haircuts.

    I can confirm lads are the same they've ever been. Bragging to each other and taking the piss out of each other for failings with girls. Lots of swearing. And talking about how fit girls are, and how small their mates penises are.

    They talk to each other in this sort of Jafaican patois as well, but I'm not sure that's new either.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    Foxy said:

    Yes, I see a fair number of men of a certain age who wear shorts whatever the weather. Usually saggy cargo shorts with full side pockets. It isn't a flattering look.
    I'd never wear shorts in a professional capacity - you just feel better when smartly dressed. But I do tend to live in shorts in my free time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Leon said:

    143 deaths today. Still quite a few people dying every day


    Who are they? Has anyone broken down the death stats? Is it the elderly, the co-morbid, or are young healthy people also succumbing? And how many are vaxed?

    They're not dying of Covid-19. They're dying with it. And we have no idea what that actually means.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Foxy said:

    Yes, very weird circles. I have never heard anyone say patriarchy.

    CR is truly the Wokefinder General with his uncanny divining skills.
    Of course the thing about McCarthy is that he was right. There really were reds under all sorts of beds.

    But being right isn’t enough. McCarthy was a bully, a creep, and a demagogue.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    Andy_JS said:

    They're not dying of Covid-19. They're dying with it. And we have no idea what that actually means.
    The answers should be easily available. They are not. Frustrating
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    A bit longer with the masks. A bit more active pushing of "It's summer. Enjoy yourself outside".

    But mainly being proactive at getting the holdouts and youngsters vaccinated. Send teams of jabbers door-to-door to persuade people.
    Also need to accept that most cases are currently in the school age kids and that the latest 'bounce' will probably be due to Universities being back in full swing. We are in week 1 at Bath, after freshers week last week.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foxy said:

    Yes, very weird circles. I have never heard anyone say patriarchy.

    CR is truly the Wokefinder General with his uncanny divining skills.
    The Boots incident sounds a bit more pavilion end than patriarchal, though. Strange.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    I don’t believe you are making it up.

    Is there something in your appearance or demeanour that seems to trigger young women, do you think?
    I have no idea. Funnily enough I look and act totally normally in real life. I don't show every young woman my posting history on pb.com

    I note that @Leon 's wife (or ex wife?) used to say this a lot too so I'm interested in his views.

    He is strangely silent.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    I got it thrown at my yesterday for asking about exfoliating facewash in Boots.

    I'm not making this up.
    Exfoliating face wash is a bit woke isn't it? Real men don't moisturise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Leon said:

    By intervene you mean lockdown?

    I just can't hack another winter of lockdown. Nor can many people I know. We've discussed it. Just wouldn't do it

    Then what else?
    We do nothing, except vaccinate more people.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004
    Andy_JS said:

    They're not dying of Covid-19. They're dying with it. And we have no idea what that actually means.
    The basic maths doesn't point to that.
  • kinabalu said:

    Fear not. I bet Hitler couldn't knit for toffee.

    On which point I will confess something shameful to you. For a long time, and because of that, you talking about knitting a lot, I thought you were a woman.
    Talking of knitting they do a "Stitch and Bitch "session for women at my local pub which makes me chuckle
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Looks like its the parents...



    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    Seems like a key driver might be Peak-Lifers. So if there's a genuine effect here it might be some modest additional spillover, arriving with a lag. Let's see if that Green line passes its early September peak before we start thinking it's important, eh?

    WTF is a peak-lifer?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Farooq said:

    It's his shorts.
    No, no. The exfoliating mouthwash.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Leon said:

    By intervene you mean lockdown?

    I just can't hack another winter of lockdown. Nor can many people I know. We've discussed it. Just wouldn't do it

    Then what else?
    I've spoken to several people in last couple of weeks who aren't prepared to do lockdown again.

    I'm not doing it. If they shut the pubs and cafes I will have people around to the house. Everyone I know is double vaxxed and will probably get their booster.

    So, if the CMO is starting to think in that direction the government may have a problem on its hands.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    tlg86 said:

    It would also be interesting to know the average age of COVID deaths by vaccination status. The ONS give us the age split for all COVID deaths:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths#deaths-by-age

    Age \ Week ending: 12-Feb, 24-Sep
    Under 1 year: 0%, 0%
    1 to 14: 0%, 0%
    15 to 24: 0%, 0%
    25 to 44: 1%, 4%
    45 to 54: 3%, 5%
    55 to 64: 8%, 13%
    65 to 74: 16%, 17%
    75 to 84: 29%, 31%
    85+: 42%, 29%

    We can clearly see the effect of the vaccine with under 64s making up 22% of deaths in the most recent week of data compared with 12% back in February.
    Yeah. My hypothesis is that the deaths comprise largely of two groups: the unvaccinated dying of COVID, regardless of age, and primarily older, vaccinated people dying with COVID. But that is just conjecture, based on theory, not empirical data, and I find it hard to use the data from the ONS site to address the question properly.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited October 2021

    I have no idea. Funnily enough I look and act totally normally in real life. I don't show every young woman my posting history on pb.com

    I note that @Leon 's wife (or ex wife?) used to say this a lot too so I'm interested in his views.

    He is strangely silent.
    I think you are confusing Leon with a previous poster.

    I don’t know about patriarchy but all “young people” are decidedly more likely to be very left wing than they were “in my day”.

    But that’s a natural response to the existing capitalist set up.
  • ONS has data.

    https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/


    Almost all deaths are age 60+ at moment.
    I fear we are seeing the effects of the vaccine wearing off.

    Get those boosters people.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Not being the sort of guy who shares pictures of his erect member with strangers on the internet it does create some doubt as to my gender and, since I have no reason to be offended, you should have no reason to feel ashamed.
    As another male knitter, there is an odd prejudice out there. I have won prizes for my knitting at local shows, and design my own garments. My wife is a recipient of many fine jumpers.

    In one of my books is a lighthouse keeper who knitted his own ganseys all his life (a gansey is a traditional knitted jumper worn by fisherman around the UK and in the Netherlands). Historically, before framework knitting, men would be knitters in a profession.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137

    Looks like its the parents...



    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    8m
    Replying to
    @andrew_lilico
    Seems like a key driver might be Peak-Lifers. So if there's a genuine effect here it might be some modest additional spillover, arriving with a lag. Let's see if that Green line passes its early September peak before we start thinking it's important, eh?

    As a Peak-Lifer, I'm liking the term 'peak life' :smile: Isn't that what we used to call 'middle aged' (maybe with a later start around 40?)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    McCarthy didn't just go after "reds". He went after homosexuals. A pretty awful time in American history.
    In the 1950s so did pretty much everyone, everywhere. esp. here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK case by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK local R

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    Exfoliating face wash is a bit woke isn't it? Real men don't moisturise.
    Ok, even I laughed at that one!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    I've spoken to several people in last couple of weeks who aren't prepared to do lockdown again.

    I'm not doing it. If they shut the pubs and cafes I will have people around to the house. Everyone I know is double vaxxed and will probably get their booster.

    So, if the CMO is starting to think in that direction the government may have a problem on its hands.
    No evidence that the CMO is thinking of lockdowns. We are currently increasing the percentage of people with antibodies by the method of infection. Bit harsh on the kids who should be vaccinated (thanks JCVI) but fair for the vaccine refusniks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    All bullshit and no beef.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK case summary

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,296

    I suspect you will find those with similar views which held Cameron in higher esteem than Johnson were formed 5-10 years before the referendum. Perhaps made stronger because of their roles in Brexit, but (mostly) not formed because of it.
    I liked Cameron as PM but the recent lobbying revelations have caused me to move him down a whole drawer. He's not in the bottom drawer with Trump and ilk nor even the 2nd bottom one (where Farage and Johnson live) but he's now in the middle one. Farage, btw, used to be in the middle one (since despite his politics I found him engaging and sincere) but his craven Trumpery in recent times led to him being demoted to the drawer he's in now - the 2nd bottom one with Johnson. Most of the current cabinet are in there too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Leon said:

    Cat::Pigeons


    The most articulate public speaker in UK politics in the last 15 years is Daniel Hannan


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs


    In 3 minutes he tears Gordon Brown apart, eloquently, literately, and without a single pause or stumble, much better than any Tory in the Commons


    After him maybe Alex Salmond?

    Ooh, been a while since I saw that one! Dan Hannan is a seriously good public speaker, and the European Parliament debate rules, that let you speak uninterrupted for (in this debate) three minutes, play into those strengths.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    We do nothing, except vaccinate more people.
    Most of these infections are manifesting themselves as nothing worse than a cold. Either because they're in kids or in people who are vaxxed.

    We do not need 'interventions' to stop a cold going around.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK hospitals

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    I fear we are seeing the effects of the vaccine wearing off.

    Get those boosters people.
    Don't assume its vaccine wearing off. Older people are generally more frail, and even with the vaccine, some will die. The vaccines were never 100%. I think the boosters will help, but older folk dying after being vaccinated does not mean the vaccine effect is wearing down.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    UK deaths

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Farooq said:

    McCarthy didn't just go after "reds". He went after homosexuals. A pretty awful time in American history.
    It used to be a peculiar matter of patriotic pride that many of McCarthy’s victims fled to Britain where we seemed to care less about leftist leanings.

    Nowadays of course Patel would have them extraordinarily renditioned to a remote Atlantic outpost, allowing Johnson to make off-colour jokes about “Tristan de Cunha” at the Tory Party conference.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Leon said:

    The answers should be easily available. They are not. Frustrating
    We know why they won't explain it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    I think you are confusing Leon with a previous poster.

    I don’t know about patriarchy but all “young people” are decidedly more likely to be very left wing than they were “in my day”.

    But that’s a natural response to the existing capitalist set up.
    Well, it's certainly true that it's harder for them than it was for me.

    It's also possible that they use hyperbolic language "normally" now to communicate in a way I simply don't understand or recognise, and it's not as significant as I think it is because I take the words used at face value.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    edited October 2021
    Age related data

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  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    Leon said:

    Unpleasantly sharp rise in cases. Let's hope it's anomalous

    "33450. Wow. Up 15%. Not sure what that means"

    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445766495825317892?s=20

    The last confirmed rise in cases by sample date week on week is 27/9 being higher than 20/9, which has been the case for a few days, though the falls are settling as slight. Still think we're merely at a col with cases (and hospitalisations) before continuing upwards, and have at least 2-3 weeks of rises from university returns and the more gradual build up primary school cases in particular. But the longer we go, the weaker the coming case surge is likely to be, and the more October half term will gain us.

    I think the 7 day average case rates will saw tooth quite a bit yet, as different factors come into play (Xmas parties, returns to work, the move indoors), but those mini surges will be on a decaying, downward overall trend between October and Christmas, and though the New Year saw tooth will trend back up weakly, it will not be too long before dipping down again.

    I've said I would have gone for a national two week October half term which I'd have announced in August and I would have had more of a plan B to bring to bear on restrictions if needed. I've not changed my view on that, such a modest advanced notice restriction would have better ensured a good position in the run up to Christmas even if we might yet get away without it and it now looks like plan B would have sat untouched.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Talking of knitting they do a "Stitch and Bitch "session for women at my local pub which makes me chuckle
    My first knitting book was called "Stitch and Bitch". It introduced me to the concept of people being "knit-worthy".
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636
    Andy_JS said:

    They're not dying of Covid-19. They're dying with it. And we have no idea what that actually means.
    In any group of 38,000 people, unfortunately some of them will die within the next 28 days. Many simply fall into that category.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,910
    Andy_JS said:

    We know why they won't explain it.
    We do?! Why is it?

    Sincere question
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Farooq said:

    It's his shorts.
    I wouldn't inflict my legs on anyone.
This discussion has been closed.