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Kamala Harris is over-priced in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 6 in General
imageKamala Harris is over-priced in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com

From the point that Biden announced that Harris was to be his VP nominee the former Senator from California has been strong in the betting for the WH2024 nomination. In my view punters are over-stating her chances.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925
    Vice-first.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why is that an issue when it didn't prevent Al Gore or George HW Bush from being the nominee after their President chose not to run again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited October 6
    Harris' chances of the nomination in 2024 have improved in recent months as Biden's approval rating has declined, making it less likely he will run for re election, while her ratings have improved slightly.

    However she still has an approval rating under 50%.

    I agree with OGH though that if Biden does not run again a younger, more charismatic candidate like Buttigieg would be a better bet for the Democrats. They could then be Macron to Biden's Hollande to keep out Trump as the GOP's Sarkozy trying to regain their lost Presidency (in that case of course Sarkozy's PM Fillon ended up the centre right candidate so do not rule out ex VP Pence on the GOP side either)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376

    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why is that an issue when it didn't prevent Al Gore or George HW Bush from being the nominee after their President chose not to run again?
    Clinton and Reagan were constitutionally barred from running again but yes your security point is correct
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,961

    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why is that an issue when it didn't prevent Al Gore or George HW Bush from being the nominee after their President chose not to run again?
    Gore was a much bigger figure than Harris
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    We don’t know that yet
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    I think the biggest problem that Harris has is that she might be seen as not holding the Bidden coalition together.

    The Democratic party is quite disparate (at least in American political terms) - From the AOC left, to the Joe Manchin DINOs (Democrats In Name Only). Biden was extremely successful in uniting these groups behind him. In part he was chosen because of his career skills in reaching out to all sides.

    Harris built her career to appeal in both directions - a Black woman yet a ferocious prosecutor. In theory she should appeal from the Left to the Right.

    The problem is that the left wants more than tokens, and her history as a prosecutor includes some very shameful acts. In the Black community (crucial for Democratic hopes) there is little enthusiasm for her and much anger. In the past, such sentiments would have been swept under the rug, for the joy of overcoming racism and a black woman reaching the heights.... but in the age of George Floyd she has a problem.

    On the right, she doesn't seem to have much traction, despite the prosecutorial history.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why is that an issue when it didn't prevent Al Gore or George HW Bush from being the nominee after their President chose not to run again?
    Gore was a much bigger figure than Harris
    I'm sure in both cases Gore and George HW Bush had almost a free run for the nomination. And if that isn't the case things get expensive quickly.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    We don’t know that yet
    Well we do. An immediate increase of unemployment by about half a million was the Project Fear warning.

    Instead we have full employment, rising wages (at last!) and job vacancies.

    And James O'Brien and Scott have the temerity to claim Project Fear was right? Laughable!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957
    A fairly trivial one in the big scheme of things but a classic example of one of the reasons our justice system can't cope.

    We are criminalising essay mills: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-58811822

    Are essay mills bad? Sure
    Should be they be stopped in an ideal world? Yes
    With many crimes already being dropped in the system and the average case taking 1.5 years from an offence being committed to a court outcome should this be a priority? No

    Why do we keep creating endless laws that result in the implementation of more important laws becoming worse?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why is that an issue when it didn't prevent Al Gore or George HW Bush from being the nominee after their President chose not to run again?
    Gore was a much bigger figure than Harris
    I'm sure in both cases Gore and George HW Bush had almost a free run for the nomination. And if that isn't the case things get expensive quickly.

    In both cases, they were the anointed successors of 2 term presidents, chosen well in advance, with their popular Presidents raising a great deal of cash for them and making sure that their selection was a coronation. The last point massively reduced the issue, since they could dramatically reduce the primary stuff.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465

    We don’t know that yet

    ...

    How many can you spot?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    A lot of people are worried about stagflation these days, but Brexit-era British people actually have good reason to worry.

    Who needs Squid Game when you live in constant fear of a lifeless economy and skyrocketing prices?!

    https://trib.al/922WgLp https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1445654835517263876/photo/1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    That Brexiteer Stuart Rose was the first to mention it, on Day 1 of the campaign.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837
    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Flint knapping admin?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Flint knapping admin?
    Highly lucrative I hear, good shout
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    So, how does the Tory party still worship the Blessed St Margaret, who fought inflation as the demon of the British economy, triggered a house price boom to spread prosperity, faced down demands from workers for higher pay and was the architect of the Single Market?

    Is it possible to dance on the grave while she spins below?

    I was never a fan, having lived through the Eighties, but nice to see PB Tories have learned to despise her policies. Slow learners these Tories be.

    Tories want power. Nothing more, nothing less. If being in power now means pissing all over Thatcherism, that's what they'll do. Anyway, who knows what they will actually do. For a professional gaslighter like Johnson saying one thing while doing the exact opposite is second nature.
    The second most successful Tory leader electorally after WW2 after Thatcher was Macmillan, Boris on domestic policy is more Macmillan than Thatcher.

    In aligning with the US and Anglosphere more than the EU though abroad he is still very much in the Thatcher mould
    Macmillan and Thatcher and all Tory leaders in between and subsequently until 2019 sought to maintain close relations both the US and other European powers as the twin pillars of our security and prosperity. It's only Johnson that has decided to throw all our eggs into the trans-Atlantic basket. Let's see how that works out.
    If Johnson is throwing all eggs into the Transatlantic basket, it looks like some of them are getting broken.

    It's noteworthy how "Global Britain", now it's moving from merely a slogan, begins and ends with Australia.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406
    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Film productions always need brilliant administrators. But with the hide of a rhino.

    Less niche - Amazon? They like ex-military for more senior roles, but I reckon helping run the NHS might interest them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Executive Assistant (what we used to call a PA). Needs to be very organised, good at planning someone else’s time and movements.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Flint knapping admin?
    Highly lucrative I hear, good shout
    If she has good nhs experience and contacts and is willing to take a chance perhaps starting up an NHS recruitment/temp agency could be interesting? I understand there are franchise models available if starting from scratch is too daunting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009

    A fairly trivial one in the big scheme of things but a classic example of one of the reasons our justice system can't cope.

    We are criminalising essay mills: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-58811822

    Are essay mills bad? Sure
    Should be they be stopped in an ideal world? Yes
    With many crimes already being dropped in the system and the average case taking 1.5 years from an offence being committed to a court outcome should this be a priority? No

    Why do we keep creating endless laws that result in the implementation of more important laws becoming worse?

    1) Something must be done.
    2) This is something.
    3) Therefore we will do this.

    Multiply this by the thinking that Parliament is a law *creating* engine, and to all those with hammers, all problems look like nails...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Not sure how 'out there' this is, but research support/project support or administrator in a department doing clinical or epi research? Most of our research support officers do have degrees, but the administrators definitely don't need one. Admin for a research group can be quite interesting, you get involved a bit in all the projects. Ours handles our plain English research summaries, handles a lot of the interfacing with NHS Trusts on research, helps organise conferences and events etc. It's an interesting job.

    Otherwise, all kinds of charities would need a good administrator - anything health related would probably see the NHS experience as very relevant. Children's/Adult Hospices? Charities dealing with particular health conditions (a lot of those do, unfortunately, tend to be London based, which I guess would be a problem - you're still NE?).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,225

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    We don’t know that yet
    Well we do. An immediate increase of unemployment by about half a million was the Project Fear warning.

    Instead we have full employment, rising wages (at last!) and job vacancies.

    And James O'Brien and Scott have the temerity to claim Project Fear was right? Laughable!
    I expect Boris to hint at an increase in the minimum wage today and that Rishi will confirm increases in the minimum wage taking it to well over £10 by GE24 and it is the best way to address the loss of the UC £20 uplift when taking into account the £500 million that Rishi has handed to Councils to protect the worst hit by the loss of the uplift

    I believe we are seeing the most profound shift in a political party that I can remember as Boris takes the conservative party sharply left and looks at occupying the ground that labour was hoping to move onto

    The demands for employers to pay more, increases in minimum wages, higher taxes to pay for NHS and social care, huge investments in the NHS and possible changes to IHT and even addressing the tax benefit of higher rate tax payers contributions to pensions as has been suggested to a level 25%, would round off a remarkable change and would no doubt leave @HYUFD struggling to keep up

    It should leave labour very worried indeed
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675
    edited October 6
    FPT:
    Foxy said:

    So, how does the Tory party still worship the Blessed St Margaret, who fought inflation as the demon of the British economy, triggered a house price boom to spread prosperity, faced down demands from workers for higher pay and was the architect of the Single Market?

    Is it possible to dance on the grave while she spins below?

    I was never a fan, having lived through the Eighties, but nice to see PB Tories have learned to despise her policies. Slow learners these Tories be.

    On inflation, it is no longer the government's responsibility. In my opinion, it bloody well should be. But it isn't. It will be interesting to see how it plays out politically. Will Starmer call for the BoE to put up interest rates to curb inflation? Or will he call for the BoE to be nationalised?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,258

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    PB site moderator?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884
    edited October 6

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    Boris: Brexit is not responsible for shortages, supply issues, mass pigocide, etc
    Also Boris: The economy is experiencing stresses and strains which you'd expect from Brexit.

    If this is all part of his Grand Plan and the plan said there would be a difficult transition period that's fine, but I didn't see it on the bus and I'm sure there will be some out there who are suprised.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead...

    Seems unlikely.
    If she runs, she'll be able to raise the money, I think.
    Winning us another matter (I'm already on Buttigieg for the nomination at around 60).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,258

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    PB site moderator?
    Serious answer - working for an MP.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    edited October 6

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain gauge by measuring with a ruler ?

    It would be betting than just guessing, but would not be very accurate. It depends on how accurate you want though. If you want to know within say +/- 20%, it'll probably be fine. If you want +/- 1%, then no. Generally you want a reasonably large catching area then funnelled into a measuring cylinder (that is calibrated to the difference in area of the catch vs the area of the cylinder. Also your jar will likely not be a perfect cylinder.

    But for a rough idea it works.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Not really, would be surprisingly inaccurate because of the issue of the lip and pouring the water out loses alot to surface adhesion.

    Unless you are measuring the rainy season in the tropics, of course.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,575

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Flint knapping admin?
    Highly lucrative I hear, good shout
    Can be tricky, depending on the employer. Sometimes its like they are a completely different person from day to day...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    Disappointingly this is absolutely the case.

    Not that I like pessimists with no plan, just that I like liars less.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead...

    Seems unlikely.
    If she runs, she'll be able to raise the money, I think.
    Winning us another matter (I'm already on Buttigieg for the nomination at around 60).
    Pete even at 25-1 is a good bet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    Sandpit said:

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Executive Assistant (what we used to call a PA). Needs to be very organised, good at planning someone else’s time and movements.
    They still are PAs where I work (in wokademia! Are we being un-PC? :open_mouth: )

    Good suggestion though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    "There is real panic and despondency"

    Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need


    https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492
    There was no grand plan, they're blagging their way through this whole situation, but I have to give it to them they are brilliant and completely unscrupulous political opportunists. Spotted an excuse that could actually become a vote winner, and jumped on it.

    Labour are politically lumbering and slow on their feet by comparison.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    It's hardly as if Brexit was the start of Year Zero, prior to which no shit things ever happened in this country.

    If the majority had thought they were living in a land of milk of honey, they would never have gone for Brexit.

    We now have politicians who will stand or fall by the decisions they make, the implementation of those decisions.

    Whilst the EU has the execrable Ursula von der Leyen, still in place and with no chance of being booted out. Against her, Boris is a titan.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 569
    Scott_xP said:

    "There is real panic and despondency"

    Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need


    https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1

    Is this the same Wolfson that backed Brexit ? How can you get to be a CEO and yet be so fxcking stupid !
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957
    edited October 6
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    Boris: Brexit is not responsible for shortages, supply issues, mass pigocide, etc
    Also Boris: The economy is experiencing stresses and strains which you'd expect from Brexit.

    If this is all part of his Grand Plan and the plan said there would be a difficult transition period that's fine, but I didn't see it on the bus and I'm sure there will be some out there who are suprised.
    Boris: Brexit is not responsible for shortages, supply issues, mass pigocide, etc
    Also Boris: Brexit is responsible for high pay from shortages, supply issues, pigocide etc

    But eh, Brexit is a religion and he is the high priest so shall be believed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.
    It will be a cladding expert we need these days not a Thatcher.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Amazon opens its first UK non-food store in Dartford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58806762
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Project manager where healthcare policy experience is required. eg clinical trials manager. They tend to ask for a huge set of experience that they don't find in one individual, so your girlfriend might get the job even if she misses out on other experience.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465

    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.

    We need a Conservative to clean up the mess of a Brexit government
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    Scott_xP said:

    A lot of people are worried about stagflation these days, but Brexit-era British people actually have good reason to worry.

    Who needs Squid Game when you live in constant fear of a lifeless economy and skyrocketing prices?!

    https://trib.al/922WgLp https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1445654835517263876/photo/1

    Scaremongering
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited October 6

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.
    Ironically a Labour-LD government under PM Starmer would likely be more fiscally conservative than a Johnson majority government (although clearly not a Labour majority government or Labour-SNP government).

    Remember Ed Davey was a Cabinet Minister in the Cameron-Clegg coalition unlike Boris.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.
    It will be a cladding expert we need these days not a Thatcher.
    A thatcher would be good for fixing the roof while the sun is shining (as our former COE used to like to say). However, I do not think the sun will be shining. Probably we'll need a former stable-boy/girl - someone with plenty of experience of shovelling shit.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,406

    Scott_xP said:

    So we’re clear…

    It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net

    Nor for it to disrupt market forces

    Nor for it to fix supply chain issues

    Nor for it to provide health & social care

    Nor for it to implement human and workers rights

    So…

    What TF is it for?


    https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444

    Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street

    NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?

    Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists."
    https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/

    Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?

    An optimist with no plan to deliver is just a liar.
    But still at an electoral advantage over a pessimist with no plan to deliver.
    I think the electorate may be ready for a dose of sober realism by the time Johnson has finished with them. As for the plan - any good ideas announced now will just get nicked by the government.
    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.
    No doubt that will be their next pivot. Perhaps the plan all along is to have Johnson talk up state intervention, do nothing to deliver on it, then claim his failure as evidence that a dose of hair-shirt Thatcherism is what's actually needed.
    Who am I kidding, there is no fucking plan. It's just a remorseless conveyor belt of mindless slogans powered by blind, power-hungry opportunism.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,654
    edited October 6

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957
    HYUFD said:

    Amazon opens its first UK non-food store in Dartford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58806762

    Since when does Bluewater qualify as the "High Street"? Is this an error or has all physical retail space become the "High Street" now?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    edited October 6
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58804594

    The 8am speed dial race has been going on for years, in many surgeries.

    For those who don't have the joy - At 8am, the surgery switches the phone system from a pre-recorded "go away" to live. So people sit there, at 8am, repeat speed dialling. To get one of a tiny handful of appointments for that day.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634
    Scott_xP said:

    It's a tasty irony that the UK may need another Thatcher to clear up the mess of 11 years & counting of Tory government.

    We need a Conservative to clean up the mess of a Brexit government
    Keep whistling for that outcome. The Brexiteers own your party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,451
    Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    Executive Assistant (what we used to call a PA). Needs to be very organised, good at planning someone else’s time and movements.
    They still are PAs where I work (in wokademia! Are we being un-PC? :open_mouth: )

    Good suggestion though.
    What about events organising ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    Scott_xP said:

    A lot of people are worried about stagflation these days, but Brexit-era British people actually have good reason to worry.

    Who needs Squid Game when you live in constant fear of a lifeless economy and skyrocketing prices?!

    https://trib.al/922WgLp https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1445654835517263876/photo/1

    Scaremongering
    You are behind the curve on this. Far from scaremongering, this is the Brexiteer master plan. It has been in place ever since 2016. They didn't really talk about it much before last week, but apparently if you dig you can find the earlier references to it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    edited October 6

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    See my post above - I reckon it will be +/- 20%, but you can help yourself by using a straight sided vessel, with as large a circumference as possible. Jam jars may not be best. Think about a saucepan, and then use a ruler without a dead section at the end (i.e. the measuring starts at the tip).

    Edit - If you want to know than buy a rain gauge and compare to your jar method. But then as you have a rain gauge, you won't need the jar...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    It's hardly as if Brexit was the start of Year Zero, prior to which no shit things ever happened in this country.

    If the majority had thought they were living in a land of milk of honey, they would never have gone for Brexit.

    We now have politicians who will stand or fall by the decisions they make, the implementation of those decisions.

    Whilst the EU has the execrable Ursula von der Leyen, still in place and with no chance of being booted out. Against her, Boris is a titan.
    You could remove the 'an' from a word in your last sentence and many more would agree with the statement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971
    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58804594

    The 8am speed dial commendation has been going on for years, in many surgeries.

    For those who don't have the joy - At 8am, the surgery switches the phone system from a pre-recorded "go away" to live. So people sit there, at 8am, repeat speed dialling. To get one of a tiny handful of appointments for that day.

    Quite - one wonders how this is news for the BBC. This is the same as Cameron (?) being astonished that perverse incentives distort how GP's provide service.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,589

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    See my post above - I reckon it will be +/- 20%, but you can help yourself by using a straight sided vessel, with as large a circumference as possible. Jam jars may not be best. Think about a saucepan, and then use a ruler without a dead section at the end (i.e. the measuring starts at the tip).
    You could test the error by putting known amounts of water in it (50ml, 100ml, etc.) and seeing how linear the relationship is.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Does anyone else find the exactitude of the 100,000 claim a little too precise? I mean if they said 97,000 or 103,000 I'd probably be happy, but it just looks plucked out of the air (as does 500,000 across Europe).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    Are you kidding? Lots and lots of Brexiteers like @isam highlighted an end to mass immigration undercutting wages as a benefit at the time. If you didn't put 2+2 together to realise what that meant in the transition to higher wages then I'm not sure how that's on Brexiteers to explain.

    As a man of scrupulous integrity I'll always be one of the first to put my hand up and acknowledge when I was wrong and I will admit that isam was right and I was wrong on this. I didn't care whatsoever about immigration in the Referendum, indeed I viewed Free Movement as a positive. I'll put my hands up and acknowledge that isam etc were right and I was wrong. I won't hold my breath on waiting for James O'Brien, Scott etc to do the same.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    Very very rough.

    What you could try is calculate the area of the opening at the top - Pi x R2 etc

    Then use an actual measure to pour in water of various amounts - again using Pi x R2 to work out how much for how many mm of rain.

    Then scribe the glass with a sharp point to mark various rain levels......
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,624
    Scott_xP said:

    "There is real panic and despondency"

    Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need


    https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1

    Heard this - an interesting idea. See if it flies.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    eek said:

    Your 5th paragraph shows why Harris instantly loses if Biden decides to complete his first time but decides not to run for a second term. The security costs would kill the campaign dead.

    The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.

    Why would the campaign have to cover all the security cost? Surely there would be an allocation between VP and campaign?

    So each campaign stop have 1 VP stop & the feds cover the cost of the plane etc?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,128
    TimS said:

    There was no grand plan, they're blagging their way through this whole situation, but I have to give it to them they are brilliant and completely unscrupulous political opportunists. Spotted an excuse that could actually become a vote winner, and jumped on it.

    Labour are politically lumbering and slow on their feet by comparison.

    It is truly remarkable how they have turned the failure of a decade of Conservative governments to increase wages into a positive political story!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    See my post above - I reckon it will be +/- 20%, but you can help yourself by using a straight sided vessel, with as large a circumference as possible. Jam jars may not be best. Think about a saucepan, and then use a ruler without a dead section at the end (i.e. the measuring starts at the tip).
    You could test the error by putting known amounts of water in it (50ml, 100ml, etc.) and seeing how linear the relationship is.
    That would miss the disparity between the size of the opening though. That's a key issue with jars.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    edited October 6

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    Very very rough.

    What you could try is calculate the area of the opening at the top - Pi x R2 etc

    Then use an actual measure to pour in water of various amounts - again using Pi x R2 to work out how much for how many mm of rain.

    Then scribe the glass with a sharp point to mark various rain levels......
    Or buy a cheap rain gauge...
    https://amazon.co.uk/Tildenet-Gardenware-Rain-Gauge/dp/B00HWUOLJC/ref=sr_1_5?dchild=1&keywords=rain+gauge&qid=1633508468&sr=8-5
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191

    HYUFD said:

    Amazon opens its first UK non-food store in Dartford

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58806762

    Since when does Bluewater qualify as the "High Street"? Is this an error or has all physical retail space become the "High Street" now?
    The "High Street" has become a synonym for all physical retail space now. Especially in discussions related to Amazon or 'High Street retailers'

    When Debenhams collapsed that was spoken about as the High Street, I can't think of many High Street Debenhams stores they're primarily in large shopping centres too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "There is real panic and despondency"

    Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need


    https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1

    Heard this - an interesting idea. See if it flies.

    Scumbag alert..... They want to tie workers to a visa and a job. So that if they leave the job, the visa is no longer valid....

    I had a friend who was in this situation. Strangely, she couldn't be promoted or paid more (recruited at the top pay for her level, apparently) - "Would break the visa" was the excuse.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Does anyone else find the exactitude of the 100,000 claim a little too precise? I mean if they said 97,000 or 103,000 I'd probably be happy, but it just looks plucked out of the air (as does 500,000 across Europe).
    It's a guesstimate - so probably covers a range from 80,000 to 120,000.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,884

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Brexit is responsible for 50% of our variable driver shortage is a useful way to look at it.

    We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743
    rkrkrk said:

    TimS said:

    There was no grand plan, they're blagging their way through this whole situation, but I have to give it to them they are brilliant and completely unscrupulous political opportunists. Spotted an excuse that could actually become a vote winner, and jumped on it.

    Labour are politically lumbering and slow on their feet by comparison.

    It is truly remarkable how they have turned the failure of a decade of Conservative governments to increase wages into a positive political story!
    The one thing Boris is good at is remembering that people's long term memories are dire except for random real circumstances.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    It was happening immediately after

    - the referendum
    - Article 50
    - Brexit

    What a flimsy & transparent lie for him to pretend otherwise
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Does anyone else find the exactitude of the 100,000 claim a little too precise? I mean if they said 97,000 or 103,000 I'd probably be happy, but it just looks plucked out of the air (as does 500,000 across Europe).
    It's a guesstimate - so probably covers a range from 80,000 to 120,000.
    = no real idea?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes, if it is straight-sided and has a flat bottom, and you take measurements before the water evaporates.

    More usual is to use a small jam jar with a large funnel, say 5x the surface area of the jar, which makes it easier to calibrate, as 2mm of rain will fill 1cm in the jar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    Scott_xP said:

    "There is real panic and despondency"

    Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need


    https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1

    Wolfson's plan would seem to answer all the criticisms of Brexiteers regarding the hiring of foreign workers.
    That he is yet to receive any response at all from government (today was not its first airing) is ... interesting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    Yes, I see the FBPE mob are pleasuring themselves furiously over that this morning.

    We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
    Does anyone else find the exactitude of the 100,000 claim a little too precise? I mean if they said 97,000 or 103,000 I'd probably be happy, but it just looks plucked out of the air (as does 500,000 across Europe).
    There probably is a precise figure but it's just reported as "over" 100,000 drivers.

    You can see in this graph here that vacancies across Europe have tracked a similar trend over Covid:


  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,377

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    It's hardly as if Brexit was the start of Year Zero, prior to which no shit things ever happened in this country.

    If the majority had thought they were living in a land of milk of honey, they would never have gone for Brexit.

    We now have politicians who will stand or fall by the decisions they make, the implementation of those decisions.

    Whilst the EU has the execrable Ursula von der Leyen, still in place and with no chance of being booted out. Against her, Boris is a titan.
    No, he is just a different type of crap to von der Leyen. Here we have the underlying truth of why some people voted Brexit. They just don't like foreigners. However crap he is, "Boris" as they like to call him is British. However crap Brexit turns out to be, however many lies by Leave are proven to be lies, and however much damage is done to businesses, some Brexit voters just want to believe it is all worth it because, perhaps, "Boris" is not as crap as von der Leyen. Well that's OK then. Well done!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,025
    Anyone know whether the two Pfizer vaccination doses are the same - I mean contain exactly the same stuff?

    I ask because my daughter (16) has had the first Pfizer jab away from school at a walk-in but the school have got a jabber team visiting to give first Pfiser doses to pupils.

    While my daughter is not eligible to have a second dose because she doesn't fit one of the NHS criteria exemptions, we think there is a chance that school jabbers won't be organised enough to twig she's had her first jab and will give a her a second first jab (if you see what I mean).

    Given that my daughter is very cross that she can't have the second jab she is very keen for this error to happen.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,971
    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    It was happening immediately after

    - the referendum
    - Article 50
    - Brexit

    What a flimsy & transparent lie for him to pretend otherwise
    James O'Brien is desperate to always "be right" and is secretly delighted at these supply chain challenges now as it gives him a chance to argue he's been finally vindicated.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833

    Talking of jobs, can the PB brains trust think of any ‘out there’ niche jobs that most people may not of thought of that would suit someone with no degree but nearly 10 years nhs admin experience? (My Girlfriend)

    HCIT?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A lot of people are worried about stagflation these days, but Brexit-era British people actually have good reason to worry.

    Who needs Squid Game when you live in constant fear of a lifeless economy and skyrocketing prices?!

    https://trib.al/922WgLp https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1445654835517263876/photo/1

    Scaremongering
    You are behind the curve on this. Far from scaremongering, this is the Brexiteer master plan. It has been in place ever since 2016. They didn't really talk about it much before last week, but apparently if you dig you can find the earlier references to it.
    Far from scaremongering or the Brexiteer master plan its what we've had for the past two decades.

    CPI is based upon owner occupiers costs, but for non-owner occupiers housing is the biggest element of their budget even bigger than food and that has been inflated by 6.2% per annum since 1999 but wages have gone up by 2.8% inflation since then.

    So spare me any crocodile tears about inflation now please. Some people have 'enjoyed' inflicting inflation upon this country for over two decades and only now are scared it might affect them instead of others.

    Karma's a Bitch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,009

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58804594

    The 8am speed dial commendation has been going on for years, in many surgeries.

    For those who don't have the joy - At 8am, the surgery switches the phone system from a pre-recorded "go away" to live. So people sit there, at 8am, repeat speed dialling. To get one of a tiny handful of appointments for that day.

    Quite - one wonders how this is news for the BBC. This is the same as Cameron (?) being astonished that perverse incentives distort how GP's provide service.
    At a certain level in life, the jobs come with private medical care.

    I don't mean the stuff that middle management in banks gets - x thousand a year of consultants. I mean a full, private version of NHS cover. Private GPs who will come to your house or office when you decide etc.

    The "would make a dog laugh" bit is that senior managers in the NHS were demanding this. I recall a couple, who were friends of a friend. They were consultants in the NHS. Management consultants. And were quite furious that a coalition government rule change had cut off their full private medical which was paid for by the NHS.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,925

    Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    It was happening immediately after

    - the referendum
    - Article 50
    - Brexit

    What a flimsy & transparent lie for him to pretend otherwise
    James O'Brien is desperate to always "be right" and is secretly delighted at these supply chain challenges now as it gives him a chance to argue he's been finally vindicated.
    One of a number of commentators, who will be loudly cheering every minor problem in the economy, if it thinks it vindicates their view on the UK leaving the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931

    IshmaelZ said:

    Request for info...
    Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?

    Yes. Needs to be straight sided.
    The curve at the bottom would make measuring most British rain fall impossible by ruler. Let alone the size of the lip vs the size of the rest of the jar.
    Sure but i only want a rough idea... how rough is my rough idea?
    See my post above - I reckon it will be +/- 20%, but you can help yourself by using a straight sided vessel, with as large a circumference as possible. Jam jars may not be best. Think about a saucepan, and then use a ruler without a dead section at the end (i.e. the measuring starts at the tip).

    Edit - If you want to know than buy a rain gauge and compare to your jar method. But then as you have a rain gauge, you won't need the jar...
    A large saucepan without a lip sounds good, preferably with a minimal curve at the bottom.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,177
    edited October 6

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    There are supply problems and energy problems right across the world, including in Brussels, China and the USA.

    It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
    Genuine question, are there verifiable examples of other first world economies with queues at the pumps, culled excess livestock and empty supermarket shelves?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887

    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Even by Brexit standards, “You should have been prepared for the stuff we swore would never happen” is a remarkable position to take. Never underestimate the seductive power of a lie that lets people deny that they’ve been duped. However flimsy & transparent the lie may be. https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1445378612585185282

    What are you talking about Scott?

    The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.

    Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.

    Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
    I certainly don't recall Brexiteers highlighting queues for petrol, pigs being culled because they can't be butchered, empty supermarket shelves etc as a Brexit benefit PRIOR to the vote.

    But they are now.
    It's hardly as if Brexit was the start of Year Zero, prior to which no shit things ever happened in this country.

    If the majority had thought they were living in a land of milk of honey, they would never have gone for Brexit.

    We now have politicians who will stand or fall by the decisions they make, the implementation of those decisions.

    Whilst the EU has the execrable Ursula von der Leyen, still in place and with no chance of being booted out. Against her, Boris is a titan.
    Seriously. I don't expect Brexit to be overturned. Never have since 2016. But you can't deal with problems unless you accept they exist. That's the debilitating situation we're in. No-one is interested in damage limitation because either they didn't think they voted for damage or they thought the whole thing was a big mistake.

    The fact Brexiteers still go on about Von Der Leyen rather than dismissing her as an irrelevance indicates an unwillingness to deal with reality. I accept a lack of reality also applies on the other side of argument.
This discussion has been closed.