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Kamala Harris is over-priced in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
Kamala Harris is over-priced in the WH2024 nomination betting – politicalbetting.com
From the point that Biden announced that Harris was to be his VP nominee the former Senator from California has been strong in the betting for the WH2024 nomination. In my view punters are over-stating her chances.
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The only scenario that really works for Harris is for Biden to resign in year 3 and she takes over.
However she still has an approval rating under 50%.
I agree with OGH though that if Biden does not run again a younger, more charismatic candidate like Buttigieg would be a better bet for the Democrats. They could then be Macron to Biden's Hollande to keep out Trump as the GOP's Sarkozy trying to regain their lost Presidency (in that case of course Sarkozy's PM Fillon ended up the centre right candidate so do not rule out ex VP Pence on the GOP side either)
The "Project Fear" warning was that there'd be mass unemployment, not labour shortages.
Getting pay rises is what Brexiteers said would happen.
Project Fear was wrong, Brexiteers were right.
The Democratic party is quite disparate (at least in American political terms) - From the AOC left, to the Joe Manchin DINOs (Democrats In Name Only). Biden was extremely successful in uniting these groups behind him. In part he was chosen because of his career skills in reaching out to all sides.
Harris built her career to appeal in both directions - a Black woman yet a ferocious prosecutor. In theory she should appeal from the Left to the Right.
The problem is that the left wants more than tokens, and her history as a prosecutor includes some very shameful acts. In the Black community (crucial for Democratic hopes) there is little enthusiasm for her and much anger. In the past, such sentiments would have been swept under the rug, for the joy of overcoming racism and a black woman reaching the heights.... but in the age of George Floyd she has a problem.
On the right, she doesn't seem to have much traction, despite the prosecutorial history.
Instead we have full employment, rising wages (at last!) and job vacancies.
And James O'Brien and Scott have the temerity to claim Project Fear was right? Laughable!
We are criminalising essay mills: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-58811822
Are essay mills bad? Sure
Should be they be stopped in an ideal world? Yes
With many crimes already being dropped in the system and the average case taking 1.5 years from an offence being committed to a court outcome should this be a priority? No
Why do we keep creating endless laws that result in the implementation of more important laws becoming worse?
Would putting an empty glass jam jar outside provide a reasonably accurate rain guage by measuring with a ruler ?
How many can you spot?
Who needs Squid Game when you live in constant fear of a lifeless economy and skyrocketing prices?!
https://trib.al/922WgLp https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1445654835517263876/photo/1
It's noteworthy how "Global Britain", now it's moving from merely a slogan, begins and ends with Australia.
It’s not for our Govt to provide a welfare safety net
Nor for it to disrupt market forces
Nor for it to fix supply chain issues
Nor for it to provide health & social care
Nor for it to implement human and workers rights
So…
What TF is it for?
https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1445488817293586444
Now we know why they want a Clown in Downing Street
NEW: With everything going on in the country at large, why are the Conservatives so chipper?
Penny Mordaunt: “The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists." https://www.politico.eu/article/what-have-the-uk-tories-conservatives-are-so-happy-about/
Life may be shit, but you can have a laugh, eh?
Less niche - Amazon? They like ex-military for more senior roles, but I reckon helping run the NHS might interest them.
2) This is something.
3) Therefore we will do this.
Multiply this by the thinking that Parliament is a law *creating* engine, and to all those with hammers, all problems look like nails...
Otherwise, all kinds of charities would need a good administrator - anything health related would probably see the NHS experience as very relevant. Children's/Adult Hospices? Charities dealing with particular health conditions (a lot of those do, unfortunately, tend to be London based, which I guess would be a problem - you're still NE?).
I believe we are seeing the most profound shift in a political party that I can remember as Boris takes the conservative party sharply left and looks at occupying the ground that labour was hoping to move onto
The demands for employers to pay more, increases in minimum wages, higher taxes to pay for NHS and social care, huge investments in the NHS and possible changes to IHT and even addressing the tax benefit of higher rate tax payers contributions to pensions as has been suggested to a level 25%, would round off a remarkable change and would no doubt leave @HYUFD struggling to keep up
It should leave labour very worried indeed
Also Boris: The economy is experiencing stresses and strains which you'd expect from Brexit.
If this is all part of his Grand Plan and the plan said there would be a difficult transition period that's fine, but I didn't see it on the bus and I'm sure there will be some out there who are suprised.
If she runs, she'll be able to raise the money, I think.
Winning us another matter (I'm already on Buttigieg for the nomination at around 60).
But they are now.
But for a rough idea it works.
Unless you are measuring the rainy season in the tropics, of course.
Not that I like pessimists with no plan, just that I like liars less.
Good suggestion though.
Lord Wolfson, Tory peer and CEO of Next, says employers are very worried about a shortage of workers in the UK. He wants them to be able to pay a visa tax to hire someone from abroad if they need
https://bbc.in/3uLl9lA https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1445660073066315776/video/1
Labour are politically lumbering and slow on their feet by comparison.
If the majority had thought they were living in a land of milk of honey, they would never have gone for Brexit.
We now have politicians who will stand or fall by the decisions they make, the implementation of those decisions.
Whilst the EU has the execrable Ursula von der Leyen, still in place and with no chance of being booted out. Against her, Boris is a titan.
Also Boris: Brexit is responsible for high pay from shortages, supply issues, pigocide etc
But eh, Brexit is a religion and he is the high priest so shall be believed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58806762
Remember Ed Davey was a Cabinet Minister in the Cameron-Clegg coalition unlike Boris.
Who am I kidding, there is no fucking plan. It's just a remorseless conveyor belt of mindless slogans powered by blind, power-hungry opportunism.
The 8am speed dial race has been going on for years, in many surgeries.
For those who don't have the joy - At 8am, the surgery switches the phone system from a pre-recorded "go away" to live. So people sit there, at 8am, repeat speed dialling. To get one of a tiny handful of appointments for that day.
Edit - If you want to know than buy a rain gauge and compare to your jar method. But then as you have a rain gauge, you won't need the jar...
We'd have problems even if we were in the EU - it's just we'd be 80,000 drivers short (at best) as opposed to100,000 drivers short, and still have supply problems.
As a man of scrupulous integrity I'll always be one of the first to put my hand up and acknowledge when I was wrong and I will admit that isam was right and I was wrong on this. I didn't care whatsoever about immigration in the Referendum, indeed I viewed Free Movement as a positive. I'll put my hands up and acknowledge that isam etc were right and I was wrong. I won't hold my breath on waiting for James O'Brien, Scott etc to do the same.
What you could try is calculate the area of the opening at the top - Pi x R2 etc
Then use an actual measure to pour in water of various amounts - again using Pi x R2 to work out how much for how many mm of rain.
Then scribe the glass with a sharp point to mark various rain levels......
So each campaign stop have 1 VP stop & the feds cover the cost of the plane etc?
It's only in Britain it's blamed on Brexit rather than Covid.
https://amazon.co.uk/Tildenet-Gardenware-Rain-Gauge/dp/B00HWUOLJC/ref=sr_1_5?dchild=1&keywords=rain+gauge&qid=1633508468&sr=8-5
When Debenhams collapsed that was spoken about as the High Street, I can't think of many High Street Debenhams stores they're primarily in large shopping centres too.
I had a friend who was in this situation. Strangely, she couldn't be promoted or paid more (recruited at the top pay for her level, apparently) - "Would break the visa" was the excuse.
We have had an ongoing, longstanding (and sustainable, evidently) shortage of 50,000 and then Brexit (25,000) and Covid/testing (25,000) make up the difference.
- the referendum
- Article 50
- Brexit
What a flimsy & transparent lie for him to pretend otherwise
More usual is to use a small jam jar with a large funnel, say 5x the surface area of the jar, which makes it easier to calibrate, as 2mm of rain will fill 1cm in the jar.
That he is yet to receive any response at all from government (today was not its first airing) is ... interesting.
You can see in this graph here that vacancies across Europe have tracked a similar trend over Covid:
I ask because my daughter (16) has had the first Pfizer jab away from school at a walk-in but the school have got a jabber team visiting to give first Pfiser doses to pupils.
While my daughter is not eligible to have a second dose because she doesn't fit one of the NHS criteria exemptions, we think there is a chance that school jabbers won't be organised enough to twig she's had her first jab and will give a her a second first jab (if you see what I mean).
Given that my daughter is very cross that she can't have the second jab she is very keen for this error to happen.
CPI is based upon owner occupiers costs, but for non-owner occupiers housing is the biggest element of their budget even bigger than food and that has been inflated by 6.2% per annum since 1999 but wages have gone up by 2.8% inflation since then.
So spare me any crocodile tears about inflation now please. Some people have 'enjoyed' inflicting inflation upon this country for over two decades and only now are scared it might affect them instead of others.
Karma's a Bitch.
I don't mean the stuff that middle management in banks gets - x thousand a year of consultants. I mean a full, private version of NHS cover. Private GPs who will come to your house or office when you decide etc.
The "would make a dog laugh" bit is that senior managers in the NHS were demanding this. I recall a couple, who were friends of a friend. They were consultants in the NHS. Management consultants. And were quite furious that a coalition government rule change had cut off their full private medical which was paid for by the NHS.
The fact Brexiteers still go on about Von Der Leyen rather than dismissing her as an irrelevance indicates an unwillingness to deal with reality. I accept a lack of reality also applies on the other side of argument.