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YouGov MRP poll in “red wall” seats finds CON to LAB swing of 4.5% – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    Leon said:

    Good news week on week. A modest huzzah
    Let#s wait till tommorow to break out the champers...

    4 October 2021
    LOG CATEGORY:DATA ISSUE
    England deaths within 28 days of positive test affected by delay
    Daily counts of deaths in England rely on multiple data sources. Data from one source was delayed on 4 October 2021.

    This will have a small impact on the total number of deaths reported today. Any additional deaths related to this delay will be included in the numbers published on 5 October 2021.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    This will be a good day to bury bad news:

    "US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space."
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,279

    That you couldn't see the broken social fracture here before Brexit is the reason Brexit happened.
    I'm not sure I can take sole responsibility!
    I'm not saying there were no problems in the UK - far from it. But I'd moved back from the US about 5 or 6 years earlier and the US was just a much more obviously broken place, to me at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539

    The day of the week effect is irrelevant as it's always quoted as a week-on-week rate.
    Not necessarily, since the weekend "shadow" on reporting is variable. Some weekends a lot is dropped in on Tuesday, others not so much.
  • Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    Westminster Voting Intention (4 Oct):

    Conservative 40% (-1)
    Labour 37% (+2)
    Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 27 Sept

    Conference bounce!
  • Why shouldn't the new hypothecated tax for NHS and social care be charged to pensioners as well as employees?

    Should we exclude pensioners eligibility to the NHS and social care if they're not prepared to pay for it? I don't think so.

    I'm afraid no I can not respect the view of a generation of pensioners who had it all voting to see income taxes they'd be liable to getting cut, while national insurances they're not liable to is increased. It is disgusting and I have zero respect for it. Reverse rates back to what they were previously and I'd be happy to meet you in the middle, otherwise I'll continue to campaign for it to be charged equitably to everyone.

    I know you feel strongly on this and you will need to persuade the parties to agree with you for it to happen
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994
    Pulpstar said:

    Let#s wait till tommorow to break out the champers...

    4 October 2021
    LOG CATEGORY:DATA ISSUE
    England deaths within 28 days of positive test affected by delay
    Daily counts of deaths in England rely on multiple data sources. Data from one source was delayed on 4 October 2021.

    This will have a small impact on the total number of deaths reported today. Any additional deaths related to this delay will be included in the numbers published on 5 October 2021.
    The key metric for me is hospitalisations. They have now been falling for some time
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2021
    Tory lead cut in half in the Redfield and Wilton Poll today, from 6 to 3

    Con 40 (-1)
    Lab 37 (+2)
    LD 10
    Green 4 (-1)
    SNP 4
    Reform 3

    Leader Ratings
    Boris 36/42
    Sir Keir 25/36 (+2)

    Best PM
    Boris 41 (+1)
    Sir Keir 32 (+!)
  • Labour are finished
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,804
    edited October 2021

    Conference bounce!
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -6%, a figure which has not changed in the last week. This week’s poll finds 42% disapproving (no change) of his overall job performance, against 36% approving (no change).


    Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -11%, a two-point increase from last week’s poll. 36% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 25% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    Leon said:

    Watching a bit of the Sunak speech. Hmm. He's not very inspiring. Lucid and sensible, but lacks that pzazz

    I suspect Chancellor is maybe the peak of his career, and the right place for him

    Yes, he is basically the Tory David Miliband.

    Good in one of the Great Offices of State but PM and party leader may be beyond him

  • I know you feel strongly on this and you will need to persuade the parties to agree with you for it to happen
    Hopefully it happens. Its disreputable to not have equal taxation across society. It is an absolute travesty that right now four different people on the exact same income can be on 0%, 20%, 50% or 75% income tax depending upon how they're getting their incomes.

    The same rates should apply to everyone. Any party, even Labour, that embraced flat taxes would earn my vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    Leon said:

    The key metric for me is hospitalisations. They have now been falling for some time
    Just reread what I wrote, it's deaths which are a bit undercounted today - not cases which is what I thought I'd written. All good.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Let#s wait till tommorow to break out the champers...

    4 October 2021
    LOG CATEGORY:DATA ISSUE
    England deaths within 28 days of positive test affected by delay
    Daily counts of deaths in England rely on multiple data sources. Data from one source was delayed on 4 October 2021.

    This will have a small impact on the total number of deaths reported today. Any additional deaths related to this delay will be included in the numbers published on 5 October 2021.
    It's not going to make much of a material difference – the overall deaths figure today is -18%, so it's still going to be comfortably in the green zone by my maths.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, he is basically the Tory David Miliband.

    Good in one of the Great Offices of State but PM and party leader may be beyond him
    David Miliband is an apt comparison. Bright but geeky. A good technocrat, not a leader
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,804
    edited October 2021
    RedfieldWilton

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which has increased marginally from 41% last week. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).



    More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (41% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (41% to 32%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 27%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (39% to 29%).

    Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 27%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (36% to 30%). Starmer also now leads for best embodying ‘represents change’ (38% to 31%).

    Substantial proportions of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘is creative’ (45%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061

    I'm not sure I can take sole responsibility!
    I'm not saying there were no problems in the UK - far from it. But I'd moved back from the US about 5 or 6 years earlier and the US was just a much more obviously broken place, to me at least.
    No, we've had a chat, taken a vote - and it was you alone that caused Brexit.

    Some folk want you knighted. Others however......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Just reread what I wrote, it's deaths which are a bit undercounted today - not cases which is what I thought I'd written. All good.
    I made the same slip earlier (but didn't post) – I read it as positive tests initially before I re-read it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,371

    Labour are finished

    I'm sure many thought that in the 80's too. They are not, but not enough at the top of labour have grasped that you need to actually get voted in to be able to enact new laws and change the country. The need to be prepared to stop revelling in the internal fights and frame a vision of the country that the centre of the nation can vote for. Frankly, people like me. Don't have a joke candidate in charge - Corbyn, for all his passion, seems a fairly stupid person. I don't particularly like Kier Starmer, but as least his is a sensible, erudite person. He needs more such people around him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010

    It's not going to make much of a material difference – the overall deaths figure today is -18%, so it's still going to be comfortably in the green zone by my maths.
    One thing about the cases, they look like they're at a plateau which won't drop for love nor money - but it's a bit of a false enemy because the kids are sky high within the current case count so there is loads of potential to drop. We might hit endemic oscillation at some point in the future, but we're not there yet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which has increased marginally from 41% last week. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).

    So much for all that Conference self-congratulation, New Labour types.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324

    This will be a good day to bury bad news:

    "US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos's space travel company Blue Origin confirmed that William Shatner would be blasting off from Texas on 12 October.

    Aged 90, the actor will become the oldest person to have flown into space."

    It's only going to last a few minutes, so perhaps not.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,371
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the cases, they look like they're at a plateau which won't drop for love nor money - but it's a bit of a false enemy because the kids are sky high within the current case count so there is loads of potential to drop. We might hit endemic oscillation at some point in the future, but we're not there yet.
    The rate at which covid is going through the schools suggest that the U18 ages cannot be sustained that high for long. I strongly suspect that by christmas almost all the kids will have had this and that rates in those ages will have crashed. The danger is probably if we get too much leak out to the parents and grandparents.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just reread what I wrote, it's deaths which are a bit undercounted today - not cases which is what I thought I'd written. All good.
    Cases marginally down but essentially flat.

    Hospitalisations down 10%.

    Funny, I seem to recall 'the smartest person in the room' adamantly insisting that there was a fixed relationship between cases and hospitalisations. Doesn't look like it looking at the charts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    isam said:

    Tory lead cut in half in the Redfield and Wilton Poll today, from 6 to 3

    Con 40 (-1)
    Lab 37 (+2)
    LD 10
    Green 4 (-1)
    SNP 4
    Reform 3

    Leader Ratings
    Boris 36/42
    Sir Keir 25/36 (+2)

    Best PM
    Boris 41 (+1)
    Sir Keir 32 (+!)

    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers with the Conservatives on 314 and Labour on 249.

    So Boris would need DUP and Unionist support to stay PM
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=37&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I'm sure many thought that in the 80's too. They are not, but not enough at the top of labour have grasped that you need to actually get voted in to be able to enact new laws and change the country. The need to be prepared to stop revelling in the internal fights and frame a vision of the country that the centre of the nation can vote for. Frankly, people like me. Don't have a joke candidate in charge - Corbyn, for all his passion, seems a fairly stupid person. I don't particularly like Kier Starmer, but as least his is a sensible, erudite person. He needs more such people around him.
    He does have one major flaw –– PBers, with all their certificates, professional accreditations and degrees, are seemingly incapable of spelling his name correctly!


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  • WhatsApp down.

    Is there any point to life now?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers with the Conservatives on 314 and Labour on 249.

    So Boris would need DUP and Unionist support to stay PM
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=37&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Haha
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, he is basically the Tory David Miliband.

    Good in one of the Great Offices of State but PM and party leader may be beyond him
    And gosh does he sound like Ed Miliband when he speaks.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,371

    He does have one major flaw –– PBers, with all their certificates, professional accreditations and degrees, are seemingly incapable of spelling his name correctly!


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    I thought it was Kier Is Exactly Right? Weird. Or is it Wierd?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a hung parliament on those numbers with the Conservatives on 314 and Labour on 249.

    So Boris would need DUP and Unionist support to stay PM
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=37&LIB=10&Reform=3&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=22.3&SCOTLAB=18.3&SCOTLIB=6.3&SCOTReform=0.7&SCOTGreen=0.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=48.3&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
    Yes, but what would that mean for SCOTLAND? And the chances of another indyref?

    You constantly avoid this question. It's beyond a joke now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    Nigelb said:

    It's only going to last a few minutes, so perhaps not.
    Still be wall to wall coverage. Even if it goes well....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the cases, they look like they're at a plateau which won't drop for love nor money - but it's a bit of a false enemy because the kids are sky high within the current case count so there is loads of potential to drop. We might hit endemic oscillation at some point in the future, but we're not there yet.
    Indeed, thousands of children appear in the data because of compulsory schools testing: in many case, they'd be none the wiser were it not for the test. Lots of schoolchildren around here have picked up a positive test without any symptoms whatsoever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,073

    He does have one major flaw –– PBers, with all their certificates, professional accreditations and degrees, are seemingly incapable of spelling his name correctly!


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    Well one of his own shadow Cabinet can't get it right either, what chance the rest of us.
    https://twitter.com/MikeAmesburyMP/status/1444629893187244033
  • If Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer want my vote and thus a landslide at the next election then they will pass a law allowing drivers run over the insulate Britain types.

    I just interviewed Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion.

    Discussing the incident of the Insulate Britain protesters blocking a woman in tears trying to get to a hospital - he says he’d do the same.

    … and he would block an ambulance.


    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1445004052232867843
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,380
    isam said:

    I think that name would be a burden on him.
    A bit old-fashioned, you mean? Ok, but such names are making a comeback. Still, I suppose you don't really need my input on the matter. I'll butt out.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I thought it was Kier Is Exactly Right? Weird. Or is it Wierd?
    Ha! I bloody love it when a meme takes off, especially one as subversive as that.

    That was a bit of mischeif from mio.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, he is basically the Tory David Miliband.

    Good in one of the Great Offices of State but PM and party leader may be beyond him
    His accent sounds very much like Ed Miliband on the radio. I'd be hard pushed to tell the two apart.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    If Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer want my vote and thus a landslide at the next election then they will pass a law allowing drivers run over the insulate Britain types.

    I just interviewed Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion.

    Discussing the incident of the Insulate Britain protesters blocking a woman in tears trying to get to a hospital - he says he’d do the same.

    … and he would block an ambulance.


    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1445004052232867843

    The Government really needs to make blockading roads a criminal offence given the way Insulate Britain are behaving. They're utterly scummy and abusing the 'right' to protest to the point that it should be criminal.

    Protest at the side of the road etc, but no blockading ambulances. People could die from this.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    And crucially - with no restrictions...
    I'm in isolation until Friday. There are still restrictions that you don't get for flu.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,073

    If Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer want my vote and thus a landslide at the next election then they will pass a law allowing drivers run over the insulate Britain types.

    I just interviewed Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion.

    Discussing the incident of the Insulate Britain protesters blocking a woman in tears trying to get to a hospital - he says he’d do the same.

    … and he would block an ambulance.


    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1445004052232867843

    In a way I respect him for admitting that. If you only think a mild disruption that doesn't do more than annoy some people is enough then perhaps the issue is not all that serious. "I'm prepared to contribute to people dying as a result of my actions" at least shows he probably believes in what he says, even if he's nutty.
  • His accent sounds very much like Ed Miliband on the radio. I'd be hard pushed to tell the two apart.
    Has anyone ever seen Sunak eat a bacon sarnie?
  • Leon said:

    Watching a bit of the Sunak speech. Hmm. He's not very inspiring. Lucid and sensible, but lacks that pzazz

    I suspect Chancellor is maybe the peak of his career, and the right place for him

    Pretty certain the next leadership election will see Truss defeat Sunak.

    My only question is whether it is before or after the next election.
  • kle4 said:

    In a way I respect him for admitting that. If you only think a mild disruption that doesn't do more than annoy some people is enough then perhaps the issue is not all that serious. "I'm prepared to contribute to people dying as a result of my actions" at least shows he probably believes in what he says, even if he's nutty.
    I'd have more respect if he were prepared to be incarcerated for a year or go on a hunger strike.

    He just wants to go on his jollies and have others die, not himself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335

    His accent sounds very much like Ed Miliband on the radio. I'd be hard pushed to tell the two apart.
    William Hague was more Ed Miliband
  • Everything under the Facebook umbrella is down.

    No WhatsApp, no Insta, and no Facebook.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Cases marginally down but essentially flat.

    Hospitalisations down 10%.

    Funny, I seem to recall 'the smartest person in the room' adamantly insisting that there was a fixed relationship between cases and hospitalisations. Doesn't look like it looking at the charts.
    Leaving TSPITR aside for one moment, one of the my nominees for Innumerate Mantra of the Pandemic award is the oft trotted "the link between cases and hospitalisations has been weakened, but it has not been severed".

    It can never be severed.

    In order to record one Covid hospitalisation, one must also record a Covid case! Sure, the rate of conversion from case to hospitalisation can vary (and seems to be falling as you say), but it is mathematically and logically impossible for the link to be severed!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    To form a stable government Starmer certainly needs Labour to win most seats, agreed, even if not a majority. If Labour has more seats than the Tories he can afford to ignore the SNP as the SNP will not vote with the Tories on most legislation.

    If the Tories lose their majority but still have most seats however then Starmer could become PM but the SNP would demand a high price for their support for a Labour minority government, including devomax and indyref2
    You are a bright guy. Which of these two do you think the SNP would want from a minority Labour Govt:

    a) calm, stable Government for the whole of the UK, such that Starmer can call an early election where he gets a working majority and hence no longer any need of the SNP - or of any further independence referendum: or

    b) an absolute shit show?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,426

    Everything under the Facebook umbrella is down.

    No WhatsApp, no Insta, and no Facebook.

    How will the world cope?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kle4 said:

    Well one of his own shadow Cabinet can't get it right either, what chance the rest of us.
    https://twitter.com/MikeAmesburyMP/status/1444629893187244033
    :D fair point!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    The Government really needs to make blockading roads a criminal offence given the way Insulate Britain are behaving. They're utterly scummy and abusing the 'right' to protest to the point that it should be criminal.

    I can’t believe they didn’t get punched here

    https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1444948339359879171?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,073

    I'd have more respect if he were prepared to be incarcerated for a year or go on a hunger strike.

    He just wants to go on his jollies and have others die, not himself.
    I did say 'in a way', it doesn't make mean on balance I respect him, there's plenty in the disrespect column. I just appreciate he didn't fudge there.

    I do find it odd when they plead not guilty to things or whinge about being arrested, when the whole point is they say they are prepared to do that to get attention on the cause.
  • If Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer want my vote and thus a landslide at the next election then they will pass a law allowing drivers run over the insulate Britain types.

    I just interviewed Roger Hallam, co-founder of Extinction Rebellion.

    Discussing the incident of the Insulate Britain protesters blocking a woman in tears trying to get to a hospital - he says he’d do the same.

    … and he would block an ambulance.


    https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1445004052232867843

    Time for Priti to step up to the plate. Henry Brooke would have topped them all by now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    Leon said:

    Yes, but what would that mean for SCOTLAND? And the chances of another indyref?

    You constantly avoid this question. It's beyond a joke now.
    Still no indyref2 obviously if Boris forms a government with DUP support.

    Probably also direct rule from London over NI, even more funds for NI and definitely invocation of the Article 16 safeguarding clause of the NI Protocol
  • tlg86 said:

    How will the world cope?
    WhatsApp is my primary communication tool.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    William Hague was more Ed Miliband
    Hague was obviously from South Yorkshire. Ed is obviously not, and he likes to keep it that way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK local R

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    edited October 2021

    Hague was obviously from South Yorkshire. Ed is obviously not, and likes to keep it that way.
    Ed represents a seat in South Yorkshire.

    2 intelligent nerds who became Cabinet ministers then party leader but lost the subsequent general election.

    David Miliband and Rishi Sunak are a bit cooler than Hague and Ed but still geeky
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,073

    The Government really needs to make blockading roads a criminal offence given the way Insulate Britain are behaving. They're utterly scummy and abusing the 'right' to protest to the point that it should be criminal.

    Protest at the side of the road etc, but no blockading ambulances. People could die from this.
    I find it somewhat hard to believe, given that non negligible risk, that there is no existing offence they could reasonably be charged with.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK case summary

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    image
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,697

    Labour are finished

    Labour majority government is finished for at least the next 6 years, and perhaps more, but Labour are not remotely finished. They are placed as one of only two parties who could plausibly lead a government and are likely to be the only party that could lead an alliance/rainbow/ coalition. It is obviously that towards which they are aiming, and their chance of achieving it are high - about 40% in my view.

    If we get inflation and interest rate rises that figure of 40% will rise.

    All this has virtually nothing to do with policy - the parties have no major differences on non-unicorn issues. It's about being able to occupy a remaining chair when the music stops.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK hospitals

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    HYUFD said:

    Ed represents a seat in South Yorkshire.

    2 intelligent nerds who became Cabinet ministers then party leader but lost the subsequent general election
    I'm well aware Ed is the MP for Doncaster North. That was my point. He lives in Islington.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK deaths

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779
    edited October 2021
    kjh said:

    From my point of view I can see rational reasons for voting Tory and although many who voted leave I think did so for irrational* reasons, there are clearly many who did for completely rational reasons.

    It is difficult to see any rational reason for voting for Trump, which is why the scale of his vote is so scary.


    * Two of my favourites from personal conversations were: There are too many 'coloureds' here already and the criminal gangs are all Albanian.
    Reasons given by voters for going Trump were (a) that America was going in the wrong direction and needed shaking up (kick ass). Trump was an outsider who could do this. (b) Trump was a successful businessman, who could get the deals and make stuff happen.

    I would say the motivations for voting Trump and voting Brexit were not so different. The voters may be misinformed, but rational.

    The bit that bothers me are the majority that stuck with Trump and Brexit/Tories long after their original rationales were clearly shown to be nonsense.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    UK R

    image
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061

    Everything under the Facebook umbrella is down.

    No WhatsApp, no Insta, and no Facebook.

    Just rejoice at that news.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    edited October 2021

    You are a bright guy. Which of these two do you think the SNP would want from a minority Labour Govt:

    a) calm, stable Government for the whole of the UK, such that Starmer can call an early election where he gets a working majority and hence no longer any need of the SNP - or of any further independence referendum: or

    b) an absolute shit show?
    They will want indyref2, which Starmer will have to give them as they will string him along until he does, unless there is a sudden shift in the polls he would be unlikely to get a working majority from a snap election anyway.

    Though I would enjoy the sight of a Starmer government being as pitiful as the May government from 2017-2019 Labour did so much to destroy, poetic justice
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,231
    edited October 2021
    4:40pm

    Environment minister Victoria Prentis tries to reassure MPs on WhatsApp that government is working to resolve abattoir workers shortage.

    But she admits: "This is a very difficult time for the pig world."


    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1445051180338622468

    Shortly thereafter WhatsApp went down, coincidence?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Cases marginally down but essentially flat.

    Hospitalisations down 10%.

    Funny, I seem to recall 'the smartest person in the room' adamantly insisting that there was a fixed relationship between cases and hospitalisations. Doesn't look like it looking at the charts.
    You need to break it down by country to get a better view.

    Scotland hospitalisations have been high but steeply falling (matching the steep fall in cases)
    England hospitalisations have been flat since 20th of September when cases have also been flat.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    WhatsApp is my primary communication tool.
    You could Instagram about it?

    WhatsApp is a pita, you join groups you don't much want to join and then can't leave without looking rude cos it tells everyone you left. Also it does that creepy last seen at stalking thing. Also you think your girlfriend has dumped you during her dubai stopover because you don't realise its illegal there.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    You could Instagram about it?

    WhatsApp is a pita, you join groups you don't much want to join and then can't leave without looking rude cos it tells everyone you left. Also it does that creepy last seen at stalking thing. Also you think your girlfriend has dumped you during her dubai stopover because you don't realise its illegal there.
    Regarding the groups, just mute them.

    As for the last seen, I disable that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    They will want indyref2, which Starmer will have to give them, unless there is a sudden shift in the polls he would be unlikely to get a working majority from a snap election anyway
    If Labour looked like they had left behind Corbyn and his nutty followers and were indeed something much more akin to Blair's New Labour, then I don't see why a majority would be at all unlikely. It would partly depend on whether the Tories went bat-shit crazy and booted Boris for Nadine, but Labour in power and looking sensible - I reckon folk would vote to continue that.

    IndyRef 2 that sees Scotland depart might not be such a good look for Labour - especially if they then faced a Tory Party with a majority of seats. Labour therefore needs to win more seats than the Tories, IMHO.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited October 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Still no indyref2 obviously if Boris forms a government with DUP support.

    Probably also direct rule from London over NI, even more funds for NI and definitely invocation of the Article 16 safeguarding clause of the NI Protocol
    https://www.dieselarmy.com/engine-tech/engine/significant-engines-in-history-how-the-napier-deltic-diesel-works/

    Very nice video included - highlighting a subtlety I had completely missed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    If the chunks of DNA were small enough then the law of large numbers would apply, but they aren't, so it doesn't. See this blog post on it, which also mentions a difference between male and female genetic inheritance variability.

    https://gcbias.org/2013/10/20/how-much-of-your-genome-do-you-inherit-from-a-particular-grandparent/amp/
    Thanks for that! I realised later my reply was silly - I was assuming very high levels of recombination despite your warning. The law of large numbers won't compensate for lumpy chromosomal recombination right at the start, which is what counts here. But your reply has been much more specific than that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    kle4 said:

    I find it somewhat hard to believe, given that non negligible risk, that there is no existing offence they could reasonably be charged with.
    Constable Savage would have found one.....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    They will want indyref2, which Starmer will have to give them as they will string him along until he does, unless there is a sudden shift in the polls he would be unlikely to get a working majority from a snap election anyway.

    Though I would enjoy the sight of a Starmer government being as pitiful as the May government from 2017-2019 Labour did so much to destroy, poetic justice
    In any case the SNP wouldn't vote on English-only matters, so Westminster would be a midden right from the start simply because of that abstention (compare UK vs English matters).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    edited October 2021

    If Labour looked like they had left behind Corbyn and his nutty followers and were indeed something much more akin to Blair's New Labour, then I don't see why a majority would be at all unlikely. It would partly depend on whether the Tories went bat-shit crazy and booted Boris for Nadine, but Labour in power and looking sensible - I reckon folk would vote to continue that.

    IndyRef 2 that sees Scotland depart might not be such a good look for Labour - especially if they then faced a Tory Party with a majority of seats. Labour therefore needs to win more seats than the Tories, IMHO.
    If Labour had to give the SNP indyref2 as they were second on seats in a hung parliament and even despite a devomax offer etc then Scotland voted Yes then once SNP MPs left the Commons, the Tories would automatically return to government without a general election as they would almost certainly have a majority in rUK.

    English voters would also want as hard a line as possible taken with the SNP government in Edinburgh in Scexit talks, just as EU voters wanted as hard a line as possible taken with the UK government in London in Brexit talks
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,539
    Carnyx said:



    https://www.dieselarmy.com/engine-tech/engine/significant-engines-in-history-how-the-napier-deltic-diesel-works/

    Very nice video included - highlighting a subtlety I had completely missed.
    The opposite rotation on one crankshaft?

    The Germans had looked at a similar layout, but until a chap came up with that simple change, the timing was a puzzle....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994
    Brilliant. Got my first 5G phone

    "at the moment there is no 5G coverage in your area"
  • I know the police have been behaving disgracefully but is that language appropriate for a government minister?
    After the Damian Green arrest and the trying to fit up Andrew Mitchell such language is appropriate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    HYUFD said:

    If Labour had to give the SNP indyref2 as they were second on seats in a hung parliament and even despite a devomax offer etc then Scotland voted Yes then once SNP MPs left the Commons, the Tories would automatically return to government without a general election as they would almost certainly have a majority in rUK
    Which is why I say Labour needs more seats than the Tories. Or else the SNP will know Labour won't deliver on indyref 2. To go back into Opposition???
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    After the Damian Green arrest and the trying to fit up Andrew Mitchell such language is appropriate.
    Do you suppose Mr Johnson got his porcines mixed up on the Marr Show? He seemed very relaxed about cutting 120K porkers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779

    RedfieldWilton

    Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which has increased marginally from 41% last week. Conversely, 32% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).



    More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (41% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (41% to 32%), ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 27%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (39% to 29%).

    Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 27%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (36% to 30%). Starmer also now leads for best embodying ‘represents change’ (38% to 31%).

    Substantial proportions of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘is creative’ (45%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%).

    Polling says Johnson is better at ruining the economy than Starmer. Which is a joke...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    Carnyx said:

    In any case the SNP wouldn't vote on English-only matters, so Westminster would be a midden right from the start simply because of that abstention (compare UK vs English matters).
    Yes it would be 2 governments, Starmer PM of the UK government but the Tories still effectively governing England and deciding English domestic policy.

    The West Lothian question would come to the fore and on current polls it is very possible
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,231
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    Brilliant. Got my first 5G phone

    "at the moment there is no 5G coverage in your area"

    Get two sims into your phone.

    Are you on Vodafone or Three?

    I have o2 and EE in my phone and between those two I get 5G coverage in most of the big towns and cities.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    Farooq said:

    Where can I get my vaccine misinformation now, please?
    Make it up. Print it out. Put it in bus shelters.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994

    Get two sims into your phone.

    Are you on Vodafone or Three?

    I have o2 and EE in my phone and between those two I get 5G coverage in most of the big towns and cities.
    I have a dual device strategy

    My main phone is Vodafone which gets an upgrade in a few weeks. This is my secondary device, which has just been upgraded to 5G and iPhone 13. But no 5G in my area

    It's not exactly The Somme, as disasters go
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335

    Which is why I say Labour needs more seats than the Tories. Or else the SNP will know Labour won't deliver on indyref 2. To go back into Opposition???
    Only if Labour lose indyref2, Starmer will believe he can win indyref2 with devomax, he will have to to get SNP support to become PM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,231
    edited October 2021
    Leon said:

    I have a dual device strategy

    My main phone is Vodafone which gets an upgrade in a few weeks. This is my secondary device, which has just been upgraded to 5G and iPhone 13. But no 5G in my area

    It's not exactly The Somme, as disasters go
    Pointless, your iPhone 13 can take two SIMs, just use that rather than carrying two devices.

    I broke my phone right at the start of lockdown, I was without my phone for 4 days, it felt like The Somme for me.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,697
    SKS should, in terms of objectivity and truth, of course make it clear what he would do about Ref2 (Scotland) if he needed SNP support to form a government. Which is exactly why he will run a mile away from doing so.

    This next GE is going to be about brutal politics, not gentlemanly conduct.

    Tax rises? How much will be needed to pay off the debt? What tax rise would make the NHS happy? I don't think we shall hear a lot of non-unicorn policies on those.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,163
    Facebook is not just down, it's gone...

    A bunch of Facebook networks has just disappeared from the internet: https://twitter.com/g_bonfiglio/status/1445056923309649926/photo/1
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,994

    Pointless, your iPhone 13 can take two SIMs, just use that rather than carrying two devices.

    I broke my phone right at the start of lockdown, I was without my phone for 4 days, it felt like The Somme for me.
    Well, you've just explained why I have two phones, two sims and two different networks.

    It's a total backup if one phone fucks up. So not exactly "pointless"
  • Pointless, your iPhone 13 can take two SIMs, just use that rather than carrying two devices.

    I broke my phone right at the start of lockdown, I was without my phone for 4 days, it felt like The Somme for me.
    But do the wife SIM and mistress SIM share info that way?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Yes it would be 2 governments, Starmer PM of the UK government but the Tories still effectively governing England and deciding English domestic policy.

    The West Lothian question would come to the fore and on current polls it is very possible
    Wrong way round. Clue: it'd not be the SNP majority in Scotland fouling up the Westminster Parliament right form the start.

    Call it the West Epping Question and you would be getting warmer.
This discussion has been closed.