YouGov MRP poll in “red wall” seats finds CON to LAB swing of 4.5% – politicalbetting.com
YouGov MRP poll in “red wall” seats finds CON to LAB swing of 4.5% – politicalbetting.com
We have now got the first YouGov MRP polling of this parliament which focuses on the so called “Red Wall” seats which were the foundation of BoJo’s big victory at GE2019. This is from the YouGov report:
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The Rare Breeds Survival Trust have been fretting about abattoir availability for quite some time now. I forget the details. But it is a real problem for some rare breeds, high quality premium food producers, who exemplify the kind of industry we should be encoiuraging (and I can at least afford to do so with my own pocket and patronage).
@DuncanWeldon
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5h
Feels like an, erm, “brave” call for the government to go so big on wages as a political dividing line given the short term inflation outlook.
Hard not to see real wages falling in the months ahead.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/final-2019-general-election-mrp-model-small-
Con 339 {311 - 369} 365
Lab 231 {206 - 256} 202
SNP 41 {24 - 55} 48
LD 15 {11 - 22} 11
PC 4 {2 - 5} 4
Green 1 {1 - 1} 1
Other 1 {1 - 2} 0 ? 1 ? Chorley ?
BXP 0 {0 - 1} 0
Sorry but that first box makes little sense - what has the second half of the paragraph have to do with anything as all EU meat will be arriving after slaughter - I don't think we have live imports (I'm sure @NickPalmer will know).
I have to say the dialogue I thought was absolutely horrendous, the worst of the Craig era for that. So clunky and just didn't flow at all. Flat delivery of the lines also did not help.
Still not the worst Craig film, that still goes to QoS for me.
I watched Casino Royale last night, that film is a 10/10 to this day, it's so much better than anything that came after it. I feel like it promised something that the films after never were quite able to match.
I hope they reboot it and bring it back to Casino Royale's gritty realism.
"Mr. Trump may never stop trying to undermine American democracy. Those who value that democracy should never stop using every measure at their disposal to protect it."
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/02/opinion/jan-6-trump-eastman-election.html
However as OGH states if the LDs pick up say 20 Tory seats in the South and the SNP gain most of the remaining 6 Tory seats in Scotland then even just 40 Labour gains could make Starmer PM in a hung parliament even if the Tories still win most seats
A very light and easy read. Exactly as a thriller should be.
BTW pics if anyone doesn't know what they look like -
https://oxfordsandypigs.co.uk/our-history/
If they can't trade without paying £9 per hour for a night shift and since it is you I'm responding to ...
1. For him a generation is 50 years
2. Epping, so probably a Spitalfields Huguenot - who came over here in 1570s or 1680s.
So let's say he's 21 and that gives us 6-8 generations = 1/2exp8 = 3.9 x 10exp-3 at worst = 0.4% say
That also assumes no endogamy within the Huguenot community, but there was in fact, so that could easily be doubled or quadrupled.
The President of the European Commission herself, Ursula von der Leyen, is of the opinion that we are not amongst the EU's closest allies.
This is the relevant section from her "State of the EU 2021" speech, made on 15/9/2021.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/soteu_2021_address_en_0.pdf
Honourable Members,
In a more contested world, protecting your interests is not only about defending yourself.
It is about forging strong and reliable partnerships. This is not a luxury – it is essential for
our future stability, security and prosperity.
This work starts by deepening our partnership with our closest allies.
With the US we will develop our new agenda for global change – from the new Trade and
Technology Council to health security and sustainability.
The EU and the US will always be stronger – together.
The same is true of our neighbours in the Western Balkans.
Before the end of the month, I will travel to the region to send a strong signal of our
commitment to the accession process. We owe it to all those young people who
believe in a European future.
This is why we are ramping up our support through our new investment and economic plan,
worth around a third of the region’s GDP. Because an investment in the future of the
Western Balkans is an investment in the future of the EU.
And we will also continue investing in our partnerships across our neighbourhood – from
stepping up our engagement in the Eastern Partnership to implementing the new Agenda
for the Mediterranean and continuing to work on the different aspects of our relationship
with Turkey.
Note that this is not part of the French submarine tantrum, and Brussels cutting its nose off in support, as AUKUS was announced on the 16/9/2021.
Con 335
Lab 230
SNP 55
DUP 8
SF 7
LD 7
PC 4
SDLP 2
All 1
Grn 1
Conservative majority of 20
Also… New Welsh Boundaries 2023: “Electoral Calculus has completed our analysis of these proposed new seats, including predictions, maps and key demographic and political indicators for each one.”
Lab -4
Con -2
PC -2
Wales -8
Dreadful for Plaid Cymru. Down 50%.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2023_wales_summary.html
“Please note that initial proposals for Scotland and Northern Ireland have not been published yet.”
If the GOP win both the House and Senate next year Trump might even win the EC anyway without needing objections
Like priests and nuns.
So. Clwyd has 5 seats, all nominally now Conservative. But they are all marginals. As is Ynys Mon.
On current PREDICTION, three Clwyd seats are Labour. As is Ynys Mon. The other two are ultra marginals.
So. It may be Con -2, Lab -4. But that changes rapidly with small swings.
Edit. Apologies for caps. Am not shouting. Couldn't get bold to work for some reason.
Con: 6
Lab: 1
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 4
Which is exactly what happened.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58784635
"Workers of England unite! You have nothing to lose but your prospects being blighted by cheapo immigrants coming over here and depressing your pay and clogging up housing lists and GP surgeries!"
It's quite the play. Will the base swallow it? What about floaters? We will see.
The SE gains more seats than the East Midlands, East and SW combined and a lot of those new SE seats will likely be LD target seats if the boundary changes are implemented. Under Cameron those extra SE seats would likely all be safe Tory seats, they will be more marginal under Boris as Chesham and Amersham showed.
Labour London also gains 2 seats.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57400901
I know they aren't the "real" working class, of course, but hey.
It's been said elsewhere. He's overweight and will be fighting the next election at the age of 78. I'm not convinced that William Sadler won't have a say in Trump's decision to run or not.
If the GOP win both chambers in a midterms landslide, then there is a strong chance Trump would win the 2024 election anyway even without needing both chambers to object to the EC results
(1) "In a recent report on academic freedom in the U.S., the U.K., and Canada for the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology, I found that 40 percent of American academics would not hire a known Trump supporter, and 33 percent of British academics would avoid hiring a known Brexit supporter. When it comes to refereeing papers, grant bids, and promotion applications, my own work and that of others indicates that the likelihood of an academic’s discriminating against an openly conservative submission is as high as 45 percent. On a four-person panel, that makes discrimination a near certainty."
(2) "In the 1960s there were only one and a half journalists and academics on the left for every one on the right. Today that ratio is between four to one and six to one, and considerably higher among political journalists and social-science and humanities academics. In a report on academia for the Manhattan Institute, I noted that left-leaning social-science and humanities academics now outnumber those on the right in Britain by nine to one, and in the U.S. by 14 to one. Work by Mitchell Langbert using voter-registration data for the top liberal-arts colleges and universities (for five disciplines) also shows lopsided ratios. At Harvard, for instance, a recent inquiry reported a $250-to-$1 Democrat-to-Republican donation ratio among the staff."
It's not enough for there to be "legal" protections - hard to access, prove and leverage - because an institutional culture of intolerance creates an environment that is suffocating to those already employed and inhibits any future recruitment to correct it. This means even fewer conservatives apply in the first place and thus reinforces a monoculture.
Those that are employed (like my friend at the University of Bath, for example, or me at the Woke firm I've just left) "fear losing (their) job or missing out on job opportunities if (their) political views became known.” And so, as in authoritarian regimes, dissenters keep their views to themselves through preference falsification. This has been precisely my experience.
It's a problem for all of us because these institutions form a large part of our civic society - arbitrating between the citizen and the state - and thus contributes to polarisation within it.
It needs to be addressed.
Sinema is even worse - she doesn't need to vote with the GOP on anything in particular; she could vote the same way as Kelly on everything and probably get back in.
So current EC prediction on new boundaries is
Lab +1, PC -2, Con -7 in Wales.
Remember Trump actually got a higher voteshare in 2020 than 2016, Biden only won by squeezing the over 3% Libertarian vote in 2016 to 1% in 2020 with almost all those fiscally conservative Libertarian voters voting for him.
If Biden had not won those 2016 Libertarian voters he would have lost Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia and the EC so the Democrats cannot afford to be too tax and spend or they will lose them again
They only want you when you're seventeen,
When you're 21, you're no fun.
They take a Polaroid and let you go
Say they'll let you know, so come on.
Biden only won in 2020 by getting small state voters who voted Libertarian Party in 2016 to vote for him in 2020
Sinema is just an absolute WTF! She stood on a platform of reducing Medicare prices by allowing medicare to negotiate with drugs companies. She is now saying she will vote against exactly that if it is the Reconciliation package.
It makes absolutely no sense unless she is doing it for pure narcissism to show show she has the power to blow anything up.
Biden only won Arizona in 2020 by 0.3% over Trump by squeezing the 4% Libertarian Party vote from 2016 down to 1.5% in 2020 and Sinema knows that. To be re elected she needs Libertarian Party voters and fiscally conservative Independents to vote for her.
Manchin is from West Virginia, a state that voted for Trump even in 2020.
If the voters were thinking about turfing the government out they would be largely swinging behind the Opposition - as under FPTP there's no other way to be rid of the government.
I stick by my prediction of an increased majority for the Tories at the next election. The opinion polls during this recent fuel crisis and Labour conference seem to bolster the case.
If you do think he'll be re-elected, or has a greater chance than Sinema please show your workings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona
When she tells you she wants you to [moderated] her more than the Tories [moderated] the mining communities then she's got me hooked.
Bring him back please.
To be more precise, I presume she genuinely opposes it for whatever reason and this isn't tactical. Because if it is tactical then it seems to be really iffy tactics.
I hear "there is no problem", "doesn't exist", or, "you're making it up!" an awful lot.
I'm sure a lot of their voters will vote otherwise at the next FPTP GE. Indeed that must have happened at the Holyrood election aforesaid as the Greens only got 1.29% in the constituency vote at the same time as that 8.1% list vote.
I suspect that some will vote LD, some Slab and some SNP - one reason for the recent pact between the SNP and SGs and for Mr Starmer some months ago trying to park his lawn on the SG's biofuel tanks.
In 2016 Georgia voted 50% Trump, 45% Hillary and 3% Libertarian.
In 2020 Georgia voted 49.4% Biden and 49.2% Trump and 1% Libertarian. So without gaining votes from the small state Libertarian Party Biden would have lost Georgia.
The American people did not give the Democrats a landslide in the Senate either for socialism, they only gave the Democrats control via the casting votes of Manchin and Sinema
But I'm not a cad.
First sub 2000 day since Mid August. Rate of decrease is slowing though. That's only 15% down week on week.
But there may be polling I've forgotten about which strongly suggests otherwise. Our intuitions about how voters behave are often wrong in my experience.
If they voted for Biden they did so to remove Trump not for socialism.
It was Democratic overreach after their wins in 1992 and 2008 which saw the GOP midterm landslides of 1994 and 2010 as fiscally conservative suburbanites revolted
https://benjaminlauderdale.net/publications/election-mrp-paper/
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/353582/public-opinion-trillion-senate-budget-plan.aspx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZFyPY7_vAg