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What Now? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalu said:
    Starmer has had a good week. Came across better and more relaxed than previously. If Jones et al want another twenty years of Tory rule they are having a good week with their actions too.
  • kinabalu said:
    Starmer only lied to lunatics, trots and entryists in order to take over the party. He will be practically applauded by ex-Labour voters for having now told said trots where to get off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    tlg86 said:

    Of course, in reality, all that happens is that the parole board gets to deal with the problem. Look at some of these individuals...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole-life_orders#Quashed_whole-life_orders

    In particular...

    Anthony Entwistle...[redacted as it's not very nice] In 2009, Mr. Justice Davis ruled at the High Court that Entwistle could be considered for release after 25 years (less 10 months spent on remand) if he was judged to no longer be a threat to the public, rather than imposing a whole life tariff, saying that "He can only be released if ever (and it may be never) he is assessed as no longer a danger to the public." The parole board turned down his request for release in June 2013.

    And who's going to agree to release Roy Whiting?
    Good Lord, this chap is out in three years !

    Donald Andrews had received a whole-life term for rape and kidnapping in 2012, while having two previous convictions for manslaughter. This was reduced to a twelve-year minimum when he appealed in 2015, making him eligible for release in 2024.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,553

    https://vimeo.com/232132907

    Here's one where the cops get there in time.

    Fun fact: Sparta, Mississippi, where In the Heat of the Night is set is actually 130 miles away from the state line with Arkansas. The bridge featured is actually in Sparta, Illinois, where the picture was filmed. That is indeed on the state line over the Mississipi River, albeit across the water from Missouri, not Arkansas.



    The Next Three Days - Russell Crowe. Good film. Don't want to give away any spoilers, that said.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554

    In the long run, what you need is a very active anti-corruption investigative unit. Preferably from outside the police.
    Can I be its first boss please?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:

    2021

    Lab 1,258 44.7%
    IND (Geddis) 554 19.7%
    Con 545 19.4%
    UKIP 313 11.1%
    Green 81 2.8%
    LD 63 2.2%

    2814 votes

    LAB: 31.6% (-13.1)
    LDEM: 30.3% (+28.1)
    IND (Geddis): 18.5% (-1.2)
    CON: 14.5% (-4.9)
    IND (Allen): 3.2% (+3.2)
    GRN: 2.0% (-0.8)

    2092 votes
    OGH so nearly won his 9/1 bet.
  • TimS said:

    That's where democracy steps in. Those councillors are accountable to their electorate for the MP's actions, rather than just the state of bin collections or potholes. If they select a crap MP then they'll lose their council seats.
    Will they? There are various reasons why you might get rid of your councillor, but the fact that they chose someone as MP who you wouldn't personally have chosen probably isn't high on the list. People relatively rarely get rid of poorly performing MPs under the current system, where at least the selection of an MP is the choice on the ballot - that would be LESS likely if the question is effectively a combined one including the identity of the MP plus local services and so on.

    Also, I didn't say the MP would be "crap". Councillors might well chose a diligent, personable individual... who they consider, when push comes to shove, likely to act in the best interests of their electorate (i.e. councillors).

    I also just don't think it would play out as you describe in terms of local links. I suspect non-local candidates would do extremely well in the system you describe, as they will have avoided becoming embroiled in local rivalries and disputes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,602
    Farooq said:

    It was me, and it's not "wishful thinking". How is it when someone makes a prediction it's assumed that they want that outcome too?
    I don't know who I will vote for next time, so I can't possibly have a preference for others to switch their votes or not. My prediction may be right or wrong, but it's no reflection of my preference.
    Perhaps in Scotland the Green voters might not move so much to Labour - though it is a good question. The Starmer speech some months back, and the SNP-SG agreement more recently, undoubtedly both reflect the existence of the SNP alternative (the LDs seemingly not being convincing enough as an alternative except in their specialist c onstituencies).
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    Phil said:

    I thing the point Morris_Dancer is that cat-calling is part and parcel of a sub-culture within the UK population that tolerates the mistreatment of women & treats them as objects to be interacted with for the pleasure of the man in question, not as actual people.

    The experience of cat-calling is completely different for men and women - the men that do it think that it’s harmless banter, but for many women it’s an implied threat: “be nice about me making sexual comments about you, or maybe I’ll come after you” is the message they hear loud & clear. To be oblivious to this reality is do deny the humanity of half the planet - to say that it’s OK for women to have to grin & bear this stuff whether they like it or not.

    We know that Couzens was part of a WhatsApp group with other police officers where they shared misogynistic messages with each other & that he committed other offences before he was caught. When he was younger he had a relationship with a 14 year old girl.

    Yet, if any of these things had been used as justification for sacking him before the horrific events of last year, you can bet that the usual subjects would be out defending these actions: The WhatsApp group would be “just banter”, the sex offences would be “just stress” & he’d be given a minor slap on the wrist & back at work in no time, the relationship would have been her fault somehow & not his. And so on and on and on.

    Cat-calling is seen a part of this culture of tolerance of low level abuse of women that convinces people like Couzens that their actions are in some way supported by the society around them - that everyone would do these things if they thought they could get away with them. That’s why it’s being called out alongside everything else.
    Absolutely excellent post, if I may say so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited October 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Of course, in reality, all that happens is that the parole board gets to deal with the problem. Look at some of these individuals...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole-life_orders#Quashed_whole-life_orders

    In particular...

    Anthony Entwistle...[redacted as it's not very nice] In 2009, Mr. Justice Davis ruled at the High Court that Entwistle could be considered for release after 25 years (less 10 months spent on remand) if he was judged to no longer be a threat to the public, rather than imposing a whole life tariff, saying that "He can only be released if ever (and it may be never) he is assessed as no longer a danger to the public." The parole board turned down his request for release in June 2013.

    And who's going to agree to release Roy Whiting?
    Fascinating if grisly article. I see there is one guy who did 18 years inside for murder, then got released and murdered AGAIN. That is exceptionally rare, but shows it can happen

    Also worth noting how many of these ‘whole life’ prisoners end up committing suicide, or die at the hands of other convicts, or die weirdly young ‘after a fall in prison’

    That’s what awaits Couzens
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited October 2021

    Ah - so a (probably) conservative Independent replaced by a Conservative?
    The reason I doubt that is that, at the last election, he had a Conservative opponent but no Lib Dem or Labour. I am not local to the area so don't know, but the sign I take from that is the independent was relatively progressive.

    Of course, that does mean a pretty Conservative area may well have been returning an independent who was actually to the left of the electorate. But that's no great shock - West Sussex is very safe Tory territory, so the area could pretty safely choose a "local champion" who was no doubt personally popular and would make some noise to get their slice of the Council pie, without needing to worry too much about it fundamentally changing who was in charge.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TOPPING said:

    The Next Three Days - Russell Crowe. Good film. Don't want to give away any spoilers, that said.
    Not heard of it – will check it out. Thanks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,904

    Starmer only lied to lunatics, trots and entryists in order to take over the party. He will be practically applauded by ex-Labour voters for having now told said trots where to get off.
    I am no fan of Starmer but he has had a decent week, his speech was too long, but if he is antagonising the likes of Owen Jones he cannot be doing anything wrong.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,153
    Carnyx said:

    Perhaps in Scotland the Green voters might not move so much to Labour - though it is a good question. The Starmer speech some months back, and the SNP-SG agreement more recently, undoubtedly both reflect the existence of the SNP alternative (the LDs seemingly not being convincing enough as an alternative except in their specialist c onstituencies).
    When thinking about Green to Labour switchers you have to bear in mind how pathetically weak Starmer and Labour are on environmental issues. The landscape has changed even since 2019 and climate issues are very prominent now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,294
    Leon said:

    On investigation, it turns out the average life sentence actually served in the UK is 16.5 years. That seems a bit low to me. 20 is more imposing. But I don’t believe every murderer needs to be banged up til they croak. Couzens is an unusual case that DOES demand that

    There are about 60 "life means life" convicts in the UK, I believe. That's actually more than I would have guessed. I'd thought it was just a handful.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712

    Young men are more at risk of physical assault than young women.
    In public settings, I'd agree. In domestic settings, it's the reverse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    edited October 2021
    I don't think 16.5 years is inappropriate for an "ordinary" murder. To give one example, my wife knows a man who will shortly be released after 18 years. He stabbed a man to death, after being worked up to it, over the course of several weeks, by his father. He did something terrible, but he's not irredeemable, IMHO. He was 19 when he did it, so he's lost a fair chunk of his life.

    OTOH, sex killers, torture killers, contract killers should be inside for decades IMHO.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Latest French Opinion Poll making things look a bit more interesting.

    Macron 23%

    Le Pen 16%

    Bertrand 14%

    Melenchon 13%

    Zemmour 13%

    (Harris 24-27th Sept.)

    https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/09/Rapport-Harris-Vague-15-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf

    Zemmour isn't a confirmed candidate but he is really eating into Le Pen's vote so somebody who could actually beat Macron might make the final two (unless it's Zemmour himself).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403
    Leon said:

    Ironically, Dworkin went mad at the end and started fabricating fake rape attacks on herself. Quite a sad life

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Dworkin
    Yes, best not to follow the same path. Stick to dildo knapping.
  • In public settings, I'd agree. In domestic settings, it's the reverse.
    Men are mostly killed by "friends" and strangers. Women are mostly killed by partners and family.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think 16.5 years is inappropriate for an "ordinary" murder. To give one example, my wife knows a man who will shortly be released after 18 years. He stabbed a man to death, after being worked up to it, over the course of several weeks, by his father. He did something terrible, but he's not irredeemable, IMHO. He was 19 when he did it, so he's lost a fair chunk of his life.

    OTOH, sex killers, torture killers, contract killers should be inside for decades IMHO.

    Did his Dad get anything ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,294
    HYUFD said:

    I would imagine Keir Starmer has also had it with Owen Jones!
    But has he? If he's decided to do a muscular performative facedown of the left, and I reckon he has, then the likes of OJ kicking off might be precisely what he wants.

    Floating voter: "Hmm, if all those types are mad at him, maybe he's on the right track."

    This sort of thing. Not that I support doing this, I find it a bit sad and am skeptical of the benefit. We don't want to lose a ton of support to the Greens or Abstain. Still, the mood music on policy from the Conf was pretty encouraging. I think it could be a good manifesto that will score mid to high 30s at the GE.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    edited October 2021
    kinabalu said:

    There are about 60 "life means life" convicts in the UK, I believe. That's actually more than I would have guessed. I'd thought it was just a handful.
    Its a pretty extreme sentence. But necessary in some cases

    There have been attempts to get these sentences deemed inhumane: at the ECHR

    https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/fs_life_sentences_eng.pdf
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420

    Latest French Opinion Poll making things look a bit more interesting.

    Macron 23%

    Le Pen 16%

    Bertrand 14%

    Melenchon 13%

    Zemmour 13%

    (Harris 24-27th Sept.)

    https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/09/Rapport-Harris-Vague-15-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf

    Zemmour isn't a confirmed candidate but he is really eating into Le Pen's vote so somebody who could actually beat Macron might make the final two (unless it's Zemmour himself).

    Melenchon wouldn't beat Macron, would he?

    And is that Plastic Bertrand in third place?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,245
    edited October 2021

    Starmer only lied to lunatics, trots and entryists in order to take over the party. He will be practically applauded by ex-Labour voters for having now told said trots where to get off.
    It's all revisionist crap from Corbynists, in my view.

    The choice in the 2020 leadership election was really clear. Want continuity Corbyn? Vote RLB. Sure, Starmer has hardened the language and approach since then, but nobody was under any illusion that Starmer was going to stick with the approach of the previous four years - a period which had ended in very decisive failure.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I see SKS said he thinks the next James Bond should be a woman

    Dont tell Rosie Duffield
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,505
    edited October 2021

    Absolutely excellent post, if I may say so.
    Sir is most kind, etc.

    As an aside, I’ve been struck by the outpouring of posts on Twitter from people detailing their own personal disturbing experiences with the police. It’s clear that the utterly tone-death response of the MET to this case has aroused a lot of anger.

    (Edit: tone-deaf!)
  • kinabalu said:

    There are about 60 "life means life" convicts in the UK, I believe. That's actually more than I would have guessed. I'd thought it was just a handful.
    Question for me is whether it works. If we go too far down the line of vengeful justice, and obviously there is a place for that, we will end up like America with half the population banged up and 200-year sentences, and it is not like the US is now crime-free.

    Maybe we should take another look at countries in Europe and see how they do things.

    More important than sentencing is detection and conviction and it is there that things have got far worse in recent years.

    There is a 2-year backlog of criminal cases, and detectives are increasingly bogged down by the huge amount of data that surrounds every crime. Get murdered and in the old days, it was a few hours' door-to-door and a quick sweep of the ground. Now, it is that plus a call for cctv images for weeks before and from dozens of cameras, and umpteen mobile phones. Just think of the amount of police manpower taken up searching through all those images. Cctv does not watch itself (though I dare say the AI boffins are working on it).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816

    Men are mostly killed by "friends" and strangers. Women are mostly killed by partners and family.
    Which is why, when the reverse happens, it is always a big news story. (Woman killed by stranger, man killed by family). Much more if you are white, professional and good-looking.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,078
    First time in years - I’ve written an actual news story.

    The government has written to thousands of Germans in the UK, begging them to ‘return’ to HGV driving, even if they’ve never driven one before.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hgv-lorry-driver-shortage-germans-b1930558.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1443890011116613635/photo/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,294

    Starmer has had a good week. Came across better and more relaxed than previously. If Jones et al want another twenty years of Tory rule they are having a good week with their actions too.
    Yes, clear betting fav for Next PM now. Soon have a 3 handle, I think. Love my long @ 8.

    I hope Owen stays onboard though. The tent should be big enough. And the left is needed for ideas.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397

    I see SKS said he thinks the next James Bond should be a woman

    Dont tell Rosie Duffield

    Isn't that just the easiest laziest answer to a completely irrelevant question for a politician to be asked.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think 16.5 years is inappropriate for an "ordinary" murder. To give one example, my wife knows a man who will shortly be released after 18 years. He stabbed a man to death, after being worked up to it, over the course of several weeks, by his father. He did something terrible, but he's not irredeemable, IMHO. He was 19 when he did it, so he's lost a fair chunk of his life.

    OTOH, sex killers, torture killers, contract killers should be inside for decades IMHO.

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think 16.5 years is inappropriate for an "ordinary" murder. To give one example, my wife knows a man who will shortly be released after 18 years. He stabbed a man to death, after being worked up to it, over the course of several weeks, by his father. He did something terrible, but he's not irredeemable, IMHO. He was 19 when he did it, so he's lost a fair chunk of his life.

    OTOH, sex killers, torture killers, contract killers should be inside for decades IMHO.

    I have a number of patients in Gartree Prison, which is entirely lifers.

    Generally the prison officers like it there as lifers tend to behave, as major misbehaviour means that they stay inside. Someone on say a 3 year tariff can get away with much more, short of being convicted again, once they have done their time they are out.

    Most of the lifers I meet are rather pathetic individuals, and don't ooze threat. If you sat next to them at the bus stop you wouldn't know what they have done. Mind you, when I see them, they are chained to an escort, with a second one to hand.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    Phil said:

    Sir is most kind, etc.

    As an aside, I’ve been struck by the outpouring of posts on Twitter from people detailing their own personal disturbing experiences with the police. It’s clear that the utterly tone-death response of the MET to this case has aroused a lot of anger.

    (Edit: tone-deaf!)
    Given the personal experiences surely it's highlighting that the issue is a fundament issue, not just a one off rogue person.
  • kinabalu said:

    But has he? If he's decided to do a muscular performative facedown of the left, and I reckon he has, then the likes of OJ kicking off might be precisely what he wants.

    Floating voter: "Hmm, if all those types are mad at him, maybe he's on the right track."

    This sort of thing. Not that I support doing this, I find it a bit sad and am skeptical of the benefit. We don't want to lose a ton of support to the Greens or Abstain. Still, the mood music on policy from the Conf was pretty encouraging. I think it could be a good manifesto that will score mid to high 30s at the GE.
    Totally agree. I think it's great for Starmer if the right people are disagreeing with him. Similarly, I think he'd be very relaxed about Corbyn standing as an independent against Labour next time - even though it'd probably mean Labour losing that seat. He has to nail the message "this is not the Labour Party you decisively rejected in 2019" and nothing says it more clearly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Pulpstar said:

    Did his Dad get anything ?
    He fled the country, unfortunately. The man was a complete arsehole.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Pub chain Wetherspoon reports record loss

    Oh dear how sad never mind
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    Leon said:

    Its a pretty extreme sentence. But necessary in some cases

    There have been attempts to get these sentences deemed inhumane: at the ECHR

    https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/fs_life_sentences_eng.pdf
    Since the death penalty isn't allowed, how about fitting a catheter, food tube, colostomy bag/system, oxygen and CO2 clearing system and burying Couzens alive for a hundred years ?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    tlg86 said:

    Melenchon wouldn't beat Macron, would he?

    And is that Plastic Bertrand in third place?
    Sadly not Plastic.

    Last 2 polls had Macron narrowly beating Bertrand in round 2 but a couple of earlier ones had the reverse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Question for me is whether it works. If we go too far down the line of vengeful justice, and obviously there is a place for that, we will end up like America with half the population banged up and 200-year sentences, and it is not like the US is now crime-free.

    Maybe we should take another look at countries in Europe and see how they do things.

    More important than sentencing is detection and conviction and it is there that things have got far worse in recent years.

    There is a 2-year backlog of criminal cases, and detectives are increasingly bogged down by the huge amount of data that surrounds every crime. Get murdered and in the old days, it was a few hours' door-to-door and a quick sweep of the ground. Now, it is that plus a call for cctv images for weeks before and from dozens of cameras, and umpteen mobile phones. Just think of the amount of police manpower taken up searching through all those images. Cctv does not watch itself (though I dare say the AI boffins are working on it).
    There are people who it would be far too dangerous to allow back into society.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think 16.5 years is inappropriate for an "ordinary" murder. To give one example, my wife knows a man who will shortly be released after 18 years. He stabbed a man to death, after being worked up to it, over the course of several weeks, by his father. He did something terrible, but he's not irredeemable, IMHO. He was 19 when he did it, so he's lost a fair chunk of his life.

    OTOH, sex killers, torture killers, contract killers should be inside for decades IMHO.

    Yes I basically agree. Imagine a boy who joins a south London gang at 15 then stabs a rival to death in a fracas, age 20. If he gets out 17 years later I’d say that’s probably fair. He did a terrible thing and has lost the best years of his life as a result. Now he gets a chance to be a decent citizen and repay

    Any murder accompanied by, say, rape, should be 25 years minimum. Likewise terrorism

    I remember reading a study of jail sentences. There is a length of sentence after which almost no one ever reoffends, I believe it is about 15 years (but I need to check). In essence, if you spend that long in prison it changes you - breaks you, perhaps. You never want to go back inside. Psychos are different of course, they cannot be helped

    That’s why I was surprised by the guy who did 18 years then murdered again. Incredibly unusual

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,260
    tlg86 said:

    Melenchon wouldn't beat Macron, would he?

    And is that Plastic Bertrand in third place?
    If someone prevents Le Pen getting into the second round that is bad news for Macron.
  • .
    Scott_xP said:

    First time in years - I’ve written an actual news story.

    The government has written to thousands of Germans in the UK, begging them to ‘return’ to HGV driving, even if they’ve never driven one before.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hgv-lorry-driver-shortage-germans-b1930558.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1443890011116613635/photo/1

    How's it an actual news story?

    The government is writing to everyone licenced to drive 7.5t+ vehicles.

    If they're licenced to do so and decline the invitation, so be it. But some of those who read the letter will think "I'd like the opportunity actually" and take it up. Especially if the pay on offer is good.

    Yes some caught up in a mass mailing may not be interested, but so frigging what?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    eek said:

    Isn't that just the easiest laziest answer to a completely irrelevant question for a politician to be asked.
    He was asked who his favourite Bond was (didn't answer) and then volunteered that he thought it was about time there was a female Bond.
  • Irvine Welch is looking like a prescient novelist. The main character in 'Filth' now seems far less cartoonish, and didn't Welch also have a Jimmy Savile-esque character long before that truth came out?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,904

    .

    How's it an actual news story?

    The government is writing to everyone licenced to drive 7.5t+ vehicles.

    If they're licenced to do so and decline the invitation, so be it. But some of those who read the letter will think "I'd like the opportunity actually" and take it up. Especially if the pay on offer is good.

    Yes some caught up in a mass mailing may not be interested, but so frigging what?
    Its not news, it is just more FBPE lunatics making everything about Brexit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403
    Scott_xP said:

    First time in years - I’ve written an actual news story.

    The government has written to thousands of Germans in the UK, begging them to ‘return’ to HGV driving, even if they’ve never driven one before.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hgv-lorry-driver-shortage-germans-b1930558.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1443890011116613635/photo/1

    My licence allows me to drive C1 (up to 7.5 tons plus a 750 kg trailer) too.

    Though even a LWB Transit was enough for me when collecting Grandma's furniture!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    kinabalu said:
    It is a powerful piece. But I think Owen Jones is being rather naïve. There are two views about Starmer's leadership campaign:

    1. He lied through his teeth.
    2. He did what he needed to do to win (i.e. not alienate the left too much).

    I'm not comfortable with either, but the proof of the pudding..... He won.
  • dixiedean said:

    Which is why, when the reverse happens, it is always a big news story. (Woman killed by stranger, man killed by family). Much more if you are white, professional and good-looking.
    Sabina Nessa, the murdered schoolteacher, has also been extensively in the news, despite pb saying she would not get the coverage for not being White. Professional, yes.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816
    Leon said:

    Yes I basically agree. Imagine a boy who joins a south London gang at 15 then stabs a rival to death in a fracas, age 20. If he gets out 17 years later I’d say that’s probably fair. He did a terrible thing and has lost the best years of his life as a result. Now he gets a chance to be a decent citizen and repay

    Any murder accompanied by, say, rape, should be 25 years minimum. Likewise terrorism

    I remember reading a study of jail sentences. There is a length of sentence after which almost no one ever reoffends, I believe it is about 15 years (but I need to check). In essence, if you spend that long in prison it changes you - breaks you, perhaps. You never want to go back inside. Psychos are different of course, they cannot be helped

    That’s why I was surprised by the guy who did 18 years then murdered again. Incredibly unusual

    Most psychopaths go through life without offending. You probably know one or two.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403

    .

    How's it an actual news story?

    The government is writing to everyone licenced to drive 7.5t+ vehicles.

    If they're licenced to do so and decline the invitation, so be it. But some of those who read the letter will think "I'd like the opportunity actually" and take it up. Especially if the pay on offer is good.

    Yes some caught up in a mass mailing may not be interested, but so frigging what?
    The German licences are up to 7.5 tons in the article, not over that.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,260
    Farooq said:

    But good news for France.
    I guess that depends! I think Macron is okay.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Taz said:

    Its not news, it is just more FBPE lunatics making everything about Brexit.
    I don't get it. There's a shortage of HGV drivers and the government is being criticised for trying to address that shortage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Foxy said:

    I have a number of patients in Gartree Prison, which is entirely lifers.

    Generally the prison officers like it there as lifers tend to behave, as major misbehaviour means that they stay inside. Someone on say a 3 year tariff can get away with much more, short of being convicted again, once they have done their time they are out.

    Most of the lifers I meet are rather pathetic individuals, and don't ooze threat. If you sat next to them at the bus stop you wouldn't know what they have done. Mind you, when I see them, they are chained to an escort, with a second one to hand.
    In prison parlance, people given a life sentence are said to have been ‘lifed away’. They have dead eyes and grey skin. They are inert. All hope is extinguished. Psychopaths aside they lose any sense of menace after a decade or so, and turn to human dust

    I have a friend who does NA meetings in HMP Dartmoor (which now houses just the saddest old cases, the prison is due to shut entirely, soon). He says the lifers there are absolutely pitiful. They often look 10-20 years older than their actual age

    A life sentence is a pretty scary thing
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,602
    edited October 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    When thinking about Green to Labour switchers you have to bear in mind how pathetically weak Starmer and Labour are on environmental issues. The landscape has changed even since 2019 and climate issues are very prominent now.
    Of course, yes, that too: the SNP reluctance to support Cambo is useful in that sense, as is more generally such things as opposition to fracking (probably a factor in Jo Swinson's defeat given her funding) and the row with Mr Trump over the offshire windfarm. .

    Edit: this is for FPTP GEs of course, and the Holyrood constituency vote; quite different for the Holyrood list where your SG list vote is much less likely to be wasted. Though Slab have vocally opposed tthe Cambo oilfield, tbf.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    tlg86 said:

    Melenchon wouldn't beat Macron, would he?

    And is that Plastic Bertrand in third place?
    Plastic - free Bertrand. Courting the Green vote.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,294
    edited October 2021

    Starmer only lied to lunatics, trots and entryists in order to take over the party. He will be practically applauded by ex-Labour voters for having now told said trots where to get off.
    Depends on the policies. If they are timid, small, insubstantial, he will have lied to the whole party and people will be entitled to be pissed off. And if he loses the election on top of that, to be VERY pissed off.

    But hopefully neither of these things will happen. My hunch is he knows what he's doing and he's serious both about becoming PM and doing something with the job if he makes it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    Foxy said:

    The German licences are up to 7.5 tons in the article, not over that.
    Quite an innocent explanation:

    The Department of Transport has said that data protection rules meant they were unable to filter the results, so as to remove ambulance drivers or in this case, Germans.

    So it was either no mailshot, or everyone got it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    Foxy said:

    I have a number of patients in Gartree Prison, which is entirely lifers.

    Generally the prison officers like it there as lifers tend to behave, as major misbehaviour means that they stay inside. Someone on say a 3 year tariff can get away with much more, short of being convicted again, once they have done their time they are out.

    Most of the lifers I meet are rather pathetic individuals, and don't ooze threat. If you sat next to them at the bus stop you wouldn't know what they have done. Mind you, when I see them, they are chained to an escort, with a second one to hand.
    This may seem a strange thing to say, but I suspect the average murderer is not an especially bad person. I think that in the wrong circumstances, many of us could do the same.

    But, there are people who are truly wicked, soulless really, and a real danger to the public, and not necessarily murderers, either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    edited October 2021
    eek said:

    Isn't that just the easiest laziest answer to a completely irrelevant question for a politician to be asked.
    My answer would be more circumspect: "I'm excited to find out who the next Bond will be, it would be fun to see what they could do with a woman in the role, but I'm sure there are many male actors who would also be great choices."
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,260

    Irvine Welch is looking like a prescient novelist. The main character in 'Filth' now seems far less cartoonish, and didn't Welch also have a Jimmy Savile-esque character long before that truth came out?

    Wasn't the main character in Filth a tapeworm? (great book, BTW. Welsh is a genius).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816

    Irvine Welch is looking like a prescient novelist. The main character in 'Filth' now seems far less cartoonish, and didn't Welch also have a Jimmy Savile-esque character long before that truth came out?

    Short story. "Lorraine goes to Livingston."
    Welch denies having had any knowledge, or even heard rumours, about Savile. Filth is very much how the Police have always been viewed amongst those on the edges of legality.
    That this view is spreading to the general public ought to concern them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,602
    edited October 2021

    Wasn't the main character in Filth a tapeworm? (great book, BTW. Welsh is a genius).
    Ingteresting thing about tapeworms - they have a set of genitalia on each segment. IIRC the 'younger' sewgments near the head are male and the older ones near the end female, so after fertilisation between segments of the same or other worms cohabiting the gut, the final segments drop off and pass aweay into the faeces. I can't remember if Mr Irvine, or indeed any other artist, has riffed on this, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403

    My answer would be more circumspect: "I'm excited to find out who the next Bond will be, it would be fun to see what they could do with a woman in the role, but I'm sure there are many male actors who would also be great choices."
    My answer would be that being a politician doesn't qualify me as a movie director, and I am happy to leave the task to the experts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Sean_F said:

    This may seem a strange thing to say, but I suspect the average murderer is not an especially bad person. I think that in the wrong circumstances, many of us could do the same.

    But, there are people who are truly wicked, soulless really, and a real danger to the public, and not necessarily murderers, either.
    A friend of mine nearly murdered someone. He’s a big chap, 6 foot 5, genial, clever, engineering type. Likes cricket.

    But he has this terrible temper which, about every 15 years, descends into lunatic rage. I once saw him pick up a deeply irritating stupid person by the neck and ram him against a wall. Because of my friend’s size and strength he nearly strangled the fool to death. It’s only coz others pulled him away that he didn’t commit murder. Instead the victim meekly slipped away, my friend had a few days of mortified shame, and life went on

    Otherwise he’s a fine upstanding member of society. Father, hard worker, pays his taxes, etc
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816
    See a ban on "conversion therapy" has re-surfaced. This has the potential to cause ructions on the Right of politics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,602
    dixiedean said:

    Short story. "Lorraine goes to Livingston."
    Welch denies having had any knowledge, or even heard rumours, about Savile. Filth is very much how the Police have always been viewed amongst those on the edges of legality.
    That this view is spreading to the general public ought to concern them.
    In the book Ecstacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecstasy:_Three_Tales_of_Chemical_Romance
  • Foxy said:

    The German licences are up to 7.5 tons in the article, not over that.
    7.5t counts within 7.5t+ does it not?

    If a bookie says 18+ then they don't exclude 18 year olds.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    kinabalu said:
    Disagree. It's weak stuff from him and much less thoughtful than what he normally produces.
    What are the promises that Starmer has broken? He doesn't really say.

    All it amounts to is complaints that the left have been frozen out of certain positions and some desperately dull internal rule changes. Then he restates criticisms of whether Starmer is electable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Sean_F said:

    He fled the country, unfortunately. The man was a complete arsehole.
    I can think of a chap, who after getting out of prison for manslaughter... well, he organised the drugs trade in half of Oxford.

    It was very quiet, orderly and no-one sold anything strong to the middle class kids or the university students.

    The police seemed happy with him - they arrested his rivals (including quite a number of students) but never him. Opinion is divided on the reason for that - corruption or an acceptance of stable situation.....

    Reformed or what?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403
    Sean_F said:

    This may seem a strange thing to say, but I suspect the average murderer is not an especially bad person. I think that in the wrong circumstances, many of us could do the same.

    But, there are people who are truly wicked, soulless really, and a real danger to the public, and not necessarily murderers, either.
    Yes the ones that I have met are mostly fairly dim and easily led, impulsive and often illiterate. The TV idea of intelligent super villains is not very close to reality. Or possibly those ones don't get caught.
  • RobD said:

    I don't get it. There's a shortage of HGV drivers and the government is being criticised for trying to address that shortage.
    Because Scott is so desperate to see us fail, as he wants vindication and the UK back in Europe.

    So fixing the issue without us failing is a disaster for Scott.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816
    edited October 2021

    Wasn't the main character in Filth a tapeworm? (great book, BTW. Welsh is a genius).
    Not only that.

    MASSIVE SPOILER ALERT!!!!!

    Doesn't he dress as a woman to commit his crimes ISTR?

    The Jungian view would be a man unable to acknowledge, let alone integrate his anima. So he goes to War with it.
    Hence the tapeworm.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,986

    Latest French Opinion Poll making things look a bit more interesting.

    Macron 23%

    Le Pen 16%

    Bertrand 14%

    Melenchon 13%

    Zemmour 13%

    (Harris 24-27th Sept.)

    https://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2021/09/Rapport-Harris-Vague-15-Intentions-de-vote-Presidentielle-2022-Challenges.pdf

    Zemmour isn't a confirmed candidate but he is really eating into Le Pen's vote so somebody who could actually beat Macron might make the final two (unless it's Zemmour himself).

    Barnier?
  • Leon said:

    A friend of mine nearly murdered someone. He’s a big chap, 6 foot 5, genial, clever, engineering type. Likes cricket.

    But he has this terrible temper which, about every 15 years, descends into lunatic rage. I once saw him pick up a deeply irritating stupid person by the neck and ram him against a wall. Because of my friend’s size and strength he nearly strangled the fool to death. It’s only coz others pulled him away that he didn’t commit murder. Instead the victim meekly slipped away, my friend had a few days of mortified shame, and life went on

    Otherwise he’s a fine upstanding member of society. Father, hard worker, pays his taxes, etc
    What did this guy do to irritate him, out of interest?
  • kinabalu said:

    Depends on the policies. If they are timid, small, insubstantial, he will have lied to the whole party and people will be entitled to be pissed off. And if he loses the election on top of that, to be VERY pissed off.

    But hopefully neither of these things will happen. My hunch is he knows what he's doing and he's serious both about becoming PM and doing something with the job if he makes it.
    Trouble is, Starmer has given a shield to the Prime Minister. CCHQ will be taking notes to repel a charge that Boris is a pathological liar, or simply that the government broke several manifesto pledges. Starmer can't be trusted either, they will say.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    Leon said:

    In prison parlance, people given a life sentence are said to have been ‘lifed away’. They have dead eyes and grey skin. They are inert. All hope is extinguished. Psychopaths aside they lose any sense of menace after a decade or so, and turn to human dust

    I have a friend who does NA meetings in HMP Dartmoor (which now houses just the saddest old cases, the prison is due to shut entirely, soon). He says the lifers there are absolutely pitiful. They often look 10-20 years older than their actual age

    A life sentence is a pretty scary thing
    Which is why I think there's no need for the death penalty.

    A life sentence also takes your life but forces you to live it as well - arguably worse.
  • dixiedean said:

    Not only that.

    MASSIVE SPOILER ALERT!!!!!

    Doesn't he dress as a woman to commit his crimes ISTR?
    Like a certain wascally wabbit.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712
    On the excellent header, I'm inclined to agree that Cressida Dick needs to go, and quickly. This is a necessary, but not sufficient, start to reforming the Met.

    Obviously top leadership is crucial to shaping organisational culture. But so also is the leadership provided by second and third tier managers/leaders, who have to give expression to the values and behaviours demanded by The Leader.

    Now I'm only guessing, so apologies for that, but I have a strong suspicion that in an organisation as large as, and with the history of, the Met, the problem lies as much with other leaders as it does with the Top Leader. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Met needs a root and branch clear-out of all those managers/leaders that are more supportive of the Met's dodgy canteen culture than they are of the values and behaviours demanded by the top.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,294
    edited October 2021
    Taz said:

    I am no fan of Starmer but he has had a decent week, his speech was too long, but if he is antagonising the likes of Owen Jones he cannot be doing anything wrong.
    This is the sentiment I was referring to. The more the left complains the better, is how I think he's looking at things. I don't like it myself, then again what I'd like even less is several more years of Boris Johnson, so if Keir is calling this right, electorally, and so long as the policies are not insipid, I'm happy enough. Didn't vote for him as leader, my pref was Nandy, but I hope he can succeed, pull off the trick of winning on a platform worth winning on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881

    What did this guy do to irritate him, out of interest?
    Its a long time back but IIRC he cheated at cricket, and was then loutishly smug about it. No joke

    My friend is a stickler for fair play. So decided to throttle him
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Which is why I think there's no need for the death penalty.

    A life sentence also takes your life but forces you to live it as well - arguably worse.
    I think that being forced to stew with your own regrets for years on end is an underrated punishment.

    I think I'd opt for execution in preference to life in a US Super-Max prison.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,003
    Leon said:

    Its a long time back but IIRC he cheated at cricket, and was then loutishly smug about it. No joke

    My friend is a stickler for fair play. So decided to throttle him
    Obviously not a stickler for consistent morals!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,137
    Leon said:

    In prison parlance, people given a life sentence are said to have been ‘lifed away’. They have dead eyes and grey skin. They are inert. All hope is extinguished. Psychopaths aside they lose any sense of menace after a decade or so, and turn to human dust

    I have a friend who does NA meetings in HMP Dartmoor (which now houses just the saddest old cases, the prison is due to shut entirely, soon). He says the lifers there are absolutely pitiful. They often look 10-20 years older than their actual age

    A life sentence is a pretty scary thing
    One of the reasons I'm against the death penalty. I think life can be a harsher sentence.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712

    Trouble is, Starmer has given a shield to the Prime Minister. CCHQ will be taking notes to repel a charge that Boris is a pathological liar, or simply that the government broke several manifesto pledges. Starmer can't be trusted either, they will say.
    "Vote Boris! He's no worse a liar than Starmer!"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816
    Foxy said:

    Yes the ones that I have met are mostly fairly dim and easily led, impulsive and often illiterate. The TV idea of intelligent super villains is not very close to reality. Or possibly those ones don't get caught.
    The stats for brain injuries are quite shocking from what I am told.
  • "Vote Boris! He's no worse a liar than Starmer!"
    The opinion polls frequently have the public rating Boris as more honest than Starmer.

    Quite right too.
  • Sean_F said:

    I think that being forced to stew with your own regrets for years on end is an underrated punishment.

    I think I'd opt for execution in preference to life in a US Super-Max prison.
    I don't think we should have the death penalty. But if a prisoner opted to end their own live, Dignitas-style, then I think that should be facilated as their own free choice.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Barnier?
    poll offered 3 different options for the LR candidate assuming only 1 stood.. Bertrand scored 14%, Pecresse 12%, Barnier 8%. I only gave the Bertrand numbers above as he scored most and the selection method they have chosen is thought to favour him getting the nod.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,003
    edited October 2021
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_prison_sentences

    Bentura Ruiz Flores
    1971
    1,800 years
    United States
    Convicted of selling $20 worth of heroin to an undercover narcotics agent in Odessa, Texas

    Seems a bit harsh :D
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    On the excellent header, I'm inclined to agree that Cressida Dick needs to go, and quickly. This is a necessary, but not sufficient, start to reforming the Met.

    Obviously top leadership is crucial to shaping organisational culture. But so also is the leadership provided by second and third tier managers/leaders, who have to give expression to the values and behaviours demanded by The Leader.

    Now I'm only guessing, so apologies for that, but I have a strong suspicion that in an organisation as large as, and with the history of, the Met, the problem lies as much with other leaders as it does with the Top Leader. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Met needs a root and branch clear-out of all those managers/leaders that are more supportive of the Met's dodgy canteen culture than they are of the values and behaviours demanded by the top.

    Yes - one issue with binning Dick is that people will say "Well we had the big resignation. Job jobbed. Onward!".

    We need a full enquiry, independent. For example - Who was doing his annual security checks? Why didn't anything get flagged? Who was his boss? Who did his performance appraisals?

    Lots of blame to share around....
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,904
    Leon said:

    Its a long time back but IIRC he cheated at cricket, and was then loutishly smug about it. No joke

    My friend is a stickler for fair play. So decided to throttle him
    Your mate sounds like a tool.
  • Foxy said:

    Yes the ones that I have met are mostly fairly dim and easily led, impulsive and often illiterate. The TV idea of intelligent super villains is not very close to reality. Or possibly those ones don't get caught.
    In the last Inspector Morse, another copper decries Morse's over-elaborate theorising, saying murder comes down to "stupid people doing stupid things to each other".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,816

    On the excellent header, I'm inclined to agree that Cressida Dick needs to go, and quickly. This is a necessary, but not sufficient, start to reforming the Met.

    Obviously top leadership is crucial to shaping organisational culture. But so also is the leadership provided by second and third tier managers/leaders, who have to give expression to the values and behaviours demanded by The Leader.

    Now I'm only guessing, so apologies for that, but I have a strong suspicion that in an organisation as large as, and with the history of, the Met, the problem lies as much with other leaders as it does with the Top Leader. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Met needs a root and branch clear-out of all those managers/leaders that are more supportive of the Met's dodgy canteen culture than they are of the values and behaviours demanded by the top.

    Trouble is. That is a decades long process.
    Unless you bring in leaders outwith the Police force. And I can't see that being practically feasible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,234

    Barnier?
    Likely won't get the centre right nomination, Bertrand will likely win the support of Les Republicains in their party convention to pick their candidate in December.

    Bertrand v Macron would be neck and neck in the second round, whereas Le Pen v Macron would still see Macron win by about 10%

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,881
    Selebian said:

    One of the reasons I'm against the death penalty. I think life can be a harsher sentence.
    Especially in Dartmoor. What a depressing place.

    It’s due to shut forever in 2023. God knows what they will do with it. The architecture is kind of imperious, in a 200-year-old, Satanic way. And it’s listed. So they can’t knock it down. A hotel?!

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,078
    RobD said:

    I don't get it. There's a shortage of HGV drivers and the government is being criticised for trying to address that shortage.

    No, they are being criticised for fucking it up, again.

    Sending letters to Germans who are not going to drive HGVs doesn't solve the problem.

    “Global Britain” https://twitter.com/daantjehug/status/1443695175600050176
This discussion has been closed.