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Punters increasingly think Trump will be the WH2024 GOP nominee – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 28 in General
imagePunters increasingly think Trump will be the WH2024 GOP nominee – politicalbetting.com

We haven’t looked at the US for some time – maybe because President Biden makes it so much less newsworthy than his predecessor.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    please no.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    Well I certainly think he's got more chance than the pygmies below him in the betting combined. But it might yet be...... someone else.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 651
    I think it is somewhat less unlikely than those odds suggest that *neither* will be the candidate come election day.

    Whether it is sufficiently less unlikely to bet against...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    January 6th is all part of the Trump appeal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Trump is certainly favourite for the GOP nomination if he runs again for now but I would not rule out Pence either if he can get evangelicals out for him and win over independents to stop Trump.

    DeSantis trails Charlie Crist in the latest Florida 2022 governor polls so he may not even run therefore if he loses the governorship next year
  • TimSTimS Posts: 492
    God help America
  • Shit, I was having a nice day until I read that header
  • TimS said:

    God help America

    and the known universe
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    Lay the favourite!
  • Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

  • On a lighter note, it seems our government has plans to make the fuel crisis last a bit longer: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/revealed-government-s-emergency-plan-for-dealing-with-fuel-crises/ar-AAOUxam?ocid=entnewsntp
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    If it isn't Trump.
    Then it will be someone who wins by attacking Trump as a loser, sellout, traitor, and wet liberal, who didn't have the guts to go through with a coup.
    This wouldn’t surprise me at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    Soder wants to be Union chancellor candidate in 2025, he needs to ensure Laschet's political career is ended first by defeat and the Union's loss of the chancellorship for that however
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    TimS said:

    God help America

    He helps those who help themselves.

    That is, on your own chaps and chappettes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,833
    edited September 28
    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)
  • On topic - gives a shit. Let America vote for Trump if they want. The rest of us can go back to laughing.

    Off topic - terrible non-queues at the two petrol stations I passed in Fraserburgh earlier. Herd-like mentality as hardy north-easterners followed each other to not queue pointlessly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Pulpstar said:

    Well I certainly think he's got more chance than the pygmies below him in the betting combined. But it might yet be...... someone else.

    I think that's spot on.

    And this could be a very interesting primary. Donald Trump, born 1946, will be 78 years old. What chance that he stumbles over words, or slurs, or struggles with steps?

    I think the scenario that I am most intrigued by is one where Trump announces he's running, maybe makes it through the first primaries (narrow wins in Iowa and NH), before suffering from some issue.

    In those circumstances, what happens?

    There are other interesting questions - most notably what happens in the 2022 midterms. The Republicans should walk them. But if they are seen as *another* referendum on Trump, then they might be somewhat closer than you might expect.

    In just six weeks we have the Virginia Governors race. How close will it be? It was a 54:44 split in 2020. The Republicans would hope to run the Democrats pretty close, especially as Terry McAuliffe (their candidate) is not particularly popular. A Republican win (or very close result) would signal that they are really fired up.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    according to the graph, Trump's implied chance of winning has gone up about 13 points. The others shown look to have barely changed on aggregate.

    has a previously fancied runner disappeared from the race?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    edited September 28

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    If Laschet somehow cobbles together a coalition of the losers to become the next chancellor, a chance the CSU might start to lose Bavaria tbh.

    KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
    Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,268

    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Let them drink Evian.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    Sandpit said:

    Lay the favourite!

    To expand, I don’t think Donald Trump runs himself. I think he gets behind someone else, who could well be another total political unknown at this stage in the game.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    dixiedean said:

    If it isn't Trump.
    Then it will be someone who wins by attacking Trump as a loser, sellout, traitor, and wet liberal, who didn't have the guts to go through with a coup.
    This wouldn’t surprise me at all.

    I've got Noem, Greene or Flynn pencilled in as Trump's running mate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,268

    On topic - gives a shit. Let America vote for Trump if they want. The rest of us can go back to laughing.

    Off topic - terrible non-queues at the two petrol stations I passed in Fraserburgh earlier. Herd-like mentality as hardy north-easterners followed each other to not queue pointlessly.

    Presumably they had all filled up yesterday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,833
    Carnyx said:

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
    Indeed. Although the Wessex Water van just outside the village may have some knowledge of our latest crisis.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Let them drink Evian.
    No, no. That stuff from Derbyshire.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    HYUFD said:

    Trump is certainly favourite for the GOP nomination if he runs again for now but I would not rule out Pence either if he can get evangelicals out for him and win over independents to stop Trump.

    DeSantis trails Charlie Crist in the latest Florida 2022 governor polls so he may not even run therefore if he loses the governorship next year

    Yes, DeSantis was the big (non-Trump) favorite a year ago. He now looks much less likely. If he gets kicked out in Florida, then I can't see him winning the nomination. (Although he could always decline to run again, *because* he's going for the Presidency.)

    DeSantis's problem (and it's a problem for all the Trump mini me's), is that they daren't run against Trump. But they need to be well positioned in case Trump can't run.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Pulpstar said:

    Well I certainly think he's got more chance than the pygmies below him in the betting combined. But it might yet be...... someone else.

    I think I'm going to back trump for the Nom now.

    I think it is certain enough he runs and loyalty to Trump is a key component of being a Republican now according to polling.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362


    Former Starmer aide says he regrets supporting his bid for the leadership

    Simon Fletcher, who recently left his role as a senior strategic adviser to Sir Keir Starmer, has written an article saying he regrets helping him win the Labour leadership.

    Mr Fletcher's backing of Sir Keir was seen as crucial to his claim to be a unifying candidate, given he had previously worked as an adviser to Jeremy Corbyn.

    However, writing in the Guardian this afternoon Simon Fletcher said:

    "When I was approached to join Starmer’s campaign after working for left campaigns and politicians including Jeremy Corbyn, I saw the commitment to policies I strongly support as clear common ground between the two eras.

    "Unfortunately, the shortfall between what was promised and what has happened since raises some very big questions for thousands on the left and soft left who voted for Starmer to be leader.

    "It is very hard for me to say this because in politics people aren’t supposed to admit they got something wrong. But while the unifying pitch that Starmer put to the membership was open, conciliatory and correct – and explains the big vote he secured – it has not been delivered. It sadly proved to be the wrong thing, for me at least, to have supported that leadership campaign".

    You have to agree Big Nowls, haven’t the left beautifully coordinated their resignations, messaging and timing of announcements and articles with each other this week? They were never this on message or effective when they actually had the leadership, as the last manifesto and appalling election campaign amply shows. 😁

    Unfortunately for them, the policy and messaging from Team Starmer has been more than left wing enough this week, hasn’t it, leaving most of us thinking, what are the left on about? Reeves speech alone was full of enough left wing, green, Lexit appealing, Tory thumping policy than anything the left have said this week, you have to concede that?

    At least Burgon admitted 2019 was a Brexit election, but not 17, so he’s halfway to getting that right.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Pulpstar said:

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    If Laschet somehow cobbles together a coalition of the losers to become the next chancellor, a chance the CSU might start to lose Bavaria tbh.

    KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
    Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
    Not really a surprise. One has just won an election the other lost.
  • OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    My Tom Cotton tip looks like a bust.

    Republicans don't want a smooth face over the evil, the want nakedly evil.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    Pulpstar said:

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    If Laschet somehow cobbles together a coalition of the losers to become the next chancellor, a chance the CSU might start to lose Bavaria tbh.

    KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
    Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
    If Laschet tries to do a deal with the Greens and FDP, Soder could well threaten to take the CSU into opposition given he loathes Laschet who he believes cost him the top job. He would argue the SDP won most seats so has the right to lead the government and without CSU support a Union, Green, FDP government would not have a majority.

    The likeliest outcome however remains a Scholz led government with the Greens and FDP
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    So - the petrol station where I normally fill up has fuel again, but is imposing a £30 ration per motorist, which seems sensible under the circumstances.

    The petrol station where I finally found some fuel last Saturday had a delivery Saturday morning and has been closed for two solid days.

    This is not quite over yet…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    edited September 28

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
  • Carnyx said:

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
    Mains cut off. No bottled water on the shelves. No fuel to drive to the next village.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,524
    Carnyx said:

    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Let them drink Evian.
    No, no. That stuff from Derbyshire.
    Matlock's Bath Water?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    Alistair said:

    My Tom Cotton tip looks like a bust.

    Republicans don't want a smooth face over the evil, the want nakedly evil.

    Can you please not use the word ‘naked’ in threads about Trump? Particularly not when I’m trying to cook dinner.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    Not sure which is worse, Trump or the collection of turds trailing below...

    I mean, "Fucker" Carlson? Who could imagine *that* as President?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Just heard the PM's statement on fuel.
    Was calm, but wasn't particularly firm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Could Trump not run?

    Well, this happens for one of three reasons.

    Firstly, the Republicans could have bad midterm elections. If they failed to gain the House, then I think that would scupper his chances, because more people would put their head above the parapet. (Worth remembering that polling suggests that around half of Republicans think Trump is a drag on the party's electoral chances.)

    Secondly, there could be illness or death. Fred Trump lived until 93, so that's a clear sign of family longevity. But he's still going to be pushing 80 by the time of the next election, and people do occasionally get sick.

    Thirdly, he could end up in some kind of legal trouble that would overshadow his bid. There are numerous lawsuits pending. One of them could stick.

    (And I guess he could just decide not to... but that doesn't seem very likely.)

    What are the chances? 20% for one, 15% for two, and 10% for three, at a guess. Anyone else have any thoughts?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523

    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Let them drink Evian.
    They can have Buxton Water - and like it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    On COVID

    Where we are... an epidemic among the unvaccinated.

    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    Presumably they take over someone's bank account and use it for nefarious purposes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump is certainly favourite for the GOP nomination if he runs again for now but I would not rule out Pence either if he can get evangelicals out for him and win over independents to stop Trump.

    DeSantis trails Charlie Crist in the latest Florida 2022 governor polls so he may not even run therefore if he loses the governorship next year

    Yes, DeSantis was the big (non-Trump) favorite a year ago. He now looks much less likely. If he gets kicked out in Florida, then I can't see him winning the nomination. (Although he could always decline to run again, *because* he's going for the Presidency.)

    DeSantis's problem (and it's a problem for all the Trump mini me's), is that they daren't run against Trump. But they need to be well positioned in case Trump can't run.

    Laid my Santis long a week or so back. Now waiting for Trump's odds to shorten a bit more, so I can repeat the process with him.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,163
    I think Trump runs again. Why? Because he's desperate for the attention. Because it's vital to his self-image that he doesn't implicitly concede by walking away.

    If he runs I'm confident he will win the nomination again. Why? Most GOP politicians are so scared of Trump's relationship with his supporters that they have fallen into line on the lies about the election and January 6th. That suggests Trump has an unshakeable grip on the majority of GOP voters.

    I'm much attracted to @edmundintokyo's suggestion that centrist Primary voters will give the Republican nomination to a centrist because the Democratic primary will be a foregone conclusion with Biden as an incumbent. But I think Trump's position is strong enough to break that pattern.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    As any "Anyone by Trump"-er, I have to say that I am worried that Biden's rather disastrous few weeks have made the likelihood of President Trump Redux greater. Here is my reasoning.

    1. The only hope for the GOP is if the Trumpsters win primaries but fair badly in the mid-terms.
    2. But, with things as they stand, and the liberal wing of the Democrats about to shit all over the moderates, killing the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they can force through a $5 trillion combined package which will not have the support of the independents in the suburbs, those Trumpsters may well end up shellacking the Dems in the mid-terms, at least in the House.
    3. This kills any chance of reform from within for the GOP, meaning Trump is almost certainly its candidate in 2024.
    4. If the Dems push further left, as Biden seems intent on doing (to my surprise), then Trump has a chance in 2024, which should really have otherwise been unthinkable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,451

    Carnyx said:

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
    Mains cut off. No bottled water on the shelves. No fuel to drive to the next village.
    Oh dear. I do hope it doesn't last long.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well I certainly think he's got more chance than the pygmies below him in the betting combined. But it might yet be...... someone else.

    I think that's spot on.

    And this could be a very interesting primary. Donald Trump, born 1946, will be 78 years old. What chance that he stumbles over words, or slurs, or struggles with steps?

    I think the scenario that I am most intrigued by is one where Trump announces he's running, maybe makes it through the first primaries (narrow wins in Iowa and NH), before suffering from some issue.

    In those circumstances, what happens?

    There are other interesting questions - most notably what happens in the 2022 midterms. The Republicans should walk them. But if they are seen as *another* referendum on Trump, then they might be somewhat closer than you might expect.

    In just six weeks we have the Virginia Governors race. How close will it be? It was a 54:44 split in 2020. The Republicans would hope to run the Democrats pretty close, especially as Terry McAuliffe (their candidate) is not particularly popular. A Republican win (or very close result) would signal that they are really fired up.
    Trump may be old but he did not seem to be losing his faculties at that recent rally where he told his supporters to get jabbed. He spoke clearly and reacted immediately to the crowd's disapproval. The main risk to Trump might be not his own decline but Biden's, if that makes voters take age into account.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,355
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Lay the favourite!

    To expand, I don’t think Donald Trump runs himself. I think he gets behind someone else, who could well be another total political unknown at this stage in the game.
    Maybe he could find a candidate to get behind through the ultimate series of The Apprentice? ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Alistair said:

    My Tom Cotton tip looks like a bust.

    Republicans don't want a smooth face over the evil, the want nakedly evil.

    Tom Cotton / Ron DeSantis / Josh Hawley are the Trump mini-mes. If Trump doesn't run (and doesn't endorse a relative or Nakki Haley), I would expect one of them to win.

    But here's the thing. Trump doesn't want to be kingmaker, he wants to be king. And if he can't be king, he wants someone who he owns (i.e. a relative) to be king (or queen). He doesn't do loyalty.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,017
    edited September 28

    I think Trump runs again. Why? Because he's desperate for the attention. Because it's vital to his self-image that he doesn't implicitly concede by walking away.

    If he runs I'm confident he will win the nomination again. Why? Most GOP politicians are so scared of Trump's relationship with his supporters that they have fallen into line on the lies about the election and January 6th. That suggests Trump has an unshakeable grip on the majority of GOP voters.

    I'm much attracted to @edmundintokyo's suggestion that centrist Primary voters will give the Republican nomination to a centrist because the Democratic primary will be a foregone conclusion with Biden as an incumbent. But I think Trump's position is strong enough to break that pattern.

    Plus he is running into money issues. If he runs again, it is a bit like Caesar running for Pontifex Maximus - all the creditors realised that he was going to be a big cheese and backed off. Not to mention the way that Trump has syphoned money from his campaign stop himself before....

    EDIT: Further, if Trump doesn't run, that might signal he is finished. Which will have the creditors baying at the door. I think that he is pinning his hopes on running again.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    DeSantisvs problem is that to be competative nationally he needs to kill as many of his constiuents as possible to appease the key "anti-vax/Covid is a hoax" GOP demographic. But the more Floridians he kills the more likely he gets kicked out ending his Presidential ambitions.

    I suppose he could finesse stepping down before he is thrown out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    TimT said:

    As any "Anyone by Trump"-er, I have to say that I am worried that Biden's rather disastrous few weeks have made the likelihood of President Trump Redux greater. Here is my reasoning.

    1. The only hope for the GOP is if the Trumpsters win primaries but fair badly in the mid-terms.
    2. But, with things as they stand, and the liberal wing of the Democrats about to shit all over the moderates, killing the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they can force through a $5 trillion combined package which will not have the support of the independents in the suburbs, those Trumpsters may well end up shellacking the Dems in the mid-terms, at least in the House.
    3. This kills any chance of reform from within for the GOP, meaning Trump is almost certainly its candidate in 2024.
    4. If the Dems push further left, as Biden seems intent on doing (to my surprise), then Trump has a chance in 2024, which should really have otherwise been unthinkable.

    The combined package polls incredibly well in the suburbs and is key tp the Dems succeeding in the mid terms.

    It is the "moderate" Dems who are killing it and sinking the party's chances next year.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    As any "Anyone by Trump"-er, I have to say that I am worried that Biden's rather disastrous few weeks have made the likelihood of President Trump Redux greater. Here is my reasoning.

    1. The only hope for the GOP is if the Trumpsters win primaries but fair badly in the mid-terms.
    2. But, with things as they stand, and the liberal wing of the Democrats about to shit all over the moderates, killing the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they can force through a $5 trillion combined package which will not have the support of the independents in the suburbs, those Trumpsters may well end up shellacking the Dems in the mid-terms, at least in the House.
    3. This kills any chance of reform from within for the GOP, meaning Trump is almost certainly its candidate in 2024.
    4. If the Dems push further left, as Biden seems intent on doing (to my surprise), then Trump has a chance in 2024, which should really have otherwise been unthinkable.

    The combined package polls incredibly well in the suburbs and is key tp the Dems succeeding in the mid terms.

    It is the "moderate" Dems who are killing it and sinking the party's chances next year.
    I simply don't buy that. Elections are not won by opinion polls, or even by majority of the popular vote.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    edited September 28
    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,477

    Carnyx said:

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
    Indeed. Although the Wessex Water van just outside the village may have some knowledge of our latest crisis.
    Wessex water have a cool live info map on their website which will tell you whats going on. We had a nearby water main burst last year and it was really helpful to (a) not panic as it’s not just us and (b) tell us when fixed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,355
    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?
  • Alistair said:

    DeSantisvs problem is that to be competative nationally he needs to kill as many of his constiuents as possible to appease the key "anti-vax/Covid is a hoax" GOP demographic. But the more Floridians he kills the more likely he gets kicked out ending his Presidential ambitions.

    I suppose he could finesse stepping down before he is thrown out.

    As the China virus is an attack on American democracy it is only fair that those who are killed by the China virus can posthumously vote in future elections. Who better to allocate their votes on their behalf than the Governor himself? Simples.
  • Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    Well, far from me to suggest, but this KYC crap is just crap.

    Just a barrier to entry that the banks are happy to entertain but aren’t interested in actually doing anything with.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    Grover Cleveland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    Grover Cleveland. Defeated in 1888, re-elected in 1892.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    edited September 28
    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    And didn't succeed do you mean?

    Famously, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote three elections in a row, as he lost the Electoral College the second time.

    Edit: Wiki tells me he had much sway with the 'Mugwump' wing of the Republicans. Who names their political wing 'Mugwump'? Because more should.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    Grover Cleveland in 1892 after losing in 1888. He won.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    Grover Cleveland. Defeated in 1888, re-elected in 1892.
    You would have got there first if you hadn't typed your second sentence! :disappointed:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    "Covid has made us a nation of hysterics. It's time to get a grip
    There is no shortage of fuel, just an excess of moronic behaviour. How on earth would we respond to a real crisis?
    Robert Taylor" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/28/covid-has-made-us-nation-hysterics-time-get-grip/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,355
    edited September 28
    OK thanks everyone. There is precedent (president) then! :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    TimT said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    In US history has there ever been a one term President that ran for a second term after losing at the end of the first term?

    Grover Cleveland. Defeated in 1888, re-elected in 1892.
    You would have got there first if you hadn't typed your second sentence! :disappointed:
    Indeed, wanted to double-check the dates.

    One of my favourite pub quiz questions from last year was that Biden will become the 46th President, so how many people have been President before him? Answer, of course, 44.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    HYUFD said:

    Trump is certainly favourite for the GOP nomination if he runs again for now but I would not rule out Pence either if he can get evangelicals out for him and win over independents to stop Trump.

    DeSantis trails Charlie Crist in the latest Florida 2022 governor polls so he may not even run therefore if he loses the governorship next year

    It would be horribly and darkly ironic if DeSantis loses very narrowly and it's concluded that the differential death rates of his own supporters from his policies was the key to that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    edited September 28
    Also Martin Van Buren - President 1837-41, defeated in 1840, ran again in 1848.

    However, in 1848 he had split with the Democrats over Texas and slavery and was a candidate for the Free Soil Party, which polled 10% of the vote and won no EC votes.

    Edit - one thing we should perhaps consider is that Trump might try that if thwarted in seeking the Republican nomination. He’s just fool enough to think of himself as having Theodore Roosevelt’s charisma and popularity and believe he could go one better up against Biden at the head of an ego trip Party.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    Good news that some of the banks will allow customers to set their own contactless limit if they're not happy with the new £100 default limit.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,701
    edited September 28
    GIN1138 said:

    OK thanks everyone. The is precedent (president) then! :D

    As an aside, Cleveland is why the presidential number (eg Biden is 46) does not equal the number of presidents.

    ETA scooped by @Sandpit
  • Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    Well, far from me to suggest, but this KYC crap is just crap.

    Just a barrier to entry that the banks are happy to entertain but aren’t interested in actually doing anything with.

    That’s certainly how it comes across. Making everyone jump through hoops to tick all the boxes, while doing nothing about the actual fraud.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    I hope someone significant among the Republicans at least has the guts to run against Trump. They'll lose, but at least stand up and be counted if you think he is bad news, even if you are a Republican.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,743

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    As any "Anyone by Trump"-er, I have to say that I am worried that Biden's rather disastrous few weeks have made the likelihood of President Trump Redux greater. Here is my reasoning.

    1. The only hope for the GOP is if the Trumpsters win primaries but fair badly in the mid-terms.
    2. But, with things as they stand, and the liberal wing of the Democrats about to shit all over the moderates, killing the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they can force through a $5 trillion combined package which will not have the support of the independents in the suburbs, those Trumpsters may well end up shellacking the Dems in the mid-terms, at least in the House.
    3. This kills any chance of reform from within for the GOP, meaning Trump is almost certainly its candidate in 2024.
    4. If the Dems push further left, as Biden seems intent on doing (to my surprise), then Trump has a chance in 2024, which should really have otherwise been unthinkable.

    The combined package polls incredibly well in the suburbs and is key tp the Dems succeeding in the mid terms.

    It is the "moderate" Dems who are killing it and sinking the party's chances next year.
    That's what I thought and certainly that's how I understand Krugman's latest NYTimes piece.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,260
    "There's nowt so queer as folk", folks. For instance

    A friend's sister and husband have become "conspiricized", replaced most of their friends with online nutters, no longer talk to my friend, came down with covid, are using ventilators, still deny that covid exists, and have attacked a nurse. I can really sympathize with some of our overworked NHS staff who might occasionally query their motivation.

    I suspect that were the pair American they would probably be solid Trumpians. There are a lot of such specimens out there. God save us. It may be we can't do it on our own.
  • Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    If it did, the baddies would probably just set up fake company accounts for the last step. In practice, how many victims even realise they are victims within three days, rather than until they get their statement or a bill payment bounces?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,461
    Trump will be the nominee.

    Up to the American people then. Do they want to live in a democracy or not?

    I am not hopeful frankly. I hope there is a small unit somewhere in Whitehall planning what we do when this happens and America becomes a monarchy run by a total lunatic and his family.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    edited September 28
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
    The mules should be treated like drugs mules - 10 years minimum, unless you’re doing an awful lot of talking. Word would soon get around.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,716

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Would it be cynical to suggest the banks prefer fraudsters to steal from current accounts (ie our money) rather than from credit cards (ie the banks' money)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    Trump will be the nominee.

    Up to the American people then. Do they want to live in a democracy or not?

    I am not hopeful frankly. I hope there is a small unit somewhere in Whitehall planning what we do when this happens and America becomes a monarchy run by a total lunatic and his family.

    What are you thinking? He loses and actually seizes power. Or he wins and then he declares the end of democracy in the USA?
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    If Laschet somehow cobbles together a coalition of the losers to become the next chancellor, a chance the CSU might start to lose Bavaria tbh.

    KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
    Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
    If Laschet tries to do a deal with the Greens and FDP, Soder could well threaten to take the CSU into opposition given he loathes Laschet who he believes cost him the top job. He would argue the SDP won most seats so has the right to lead the government and without CSU support a Union, Green, FDP government would not have a majority.

    The likeliest outcome however remains a Scholz led government with the Greens and FDP
    I disagree on the basis the right wing libertarians the FDP neither have enough in common with greens and SPD, also know junior partner in coalition with them weakens their voice and electoral chances. The most likeliest outcome is CSU, FDP green or CSU SPD.

    Watch as FDP kill your most likely outcome stone dead.
  • Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
    The mules should be treated like drugs mules - 10 years minimum, unless you’re doing an awful lot of talking.
    What would they say that could be of the slightest use? The bank can already see where the payment went.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,963
    edited September 28
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
    My suggestion is that when the funds leave the first bank account the funds moved get highlighted as £x with a timestamp saying cannot leave the UK banking system until 1 Oct 17:45 or whatever (today + 3 days). This flag stays with the funds whatever account it moves to, and overrides the wishes of anyone receiving the funds.

    As long as the person defrauded notices within 3 days, and the banks/police act quickly any accounts its flowing through can be flagged, frozen and the money kept in the UK system.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Toms said:

    "There's nowt so queer as folk", folks. For instance

    A friend's sister and husband have become "conspiricized", replaced most of their friends with online nutters, no longer talk to my friend, came down with covid, are using ventilators, still deny that covid exists, and have attacked a nurse. I can really sympathize with some of our overworked NHS staff who might occasionally query their motivation.

    I suspect that were the pair American they would probably be solid Trumpians. There are a lot of such specimens out there. God save us. It may be we can't do it on our own.

    Yes. An old college friend has done similar. Hasn't got Covid, but wouldn’t believe it if he had.
    Wide ranging in loss of touch and trust with mainstream views. Can't do anything but refuse to engage.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,833
    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Jeremy Cliffe
    @JeremyCliffe
    1h
    As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20

    If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?

    If Laschet somehow cobbles together a coalition of the losers to become the next chancellor, a chance the CSU might start to lose Bavaria tbh.

    KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
    Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
    If Laschet tries to do a deal with the Greens and FDP, Soder could well threaten to take the CSU into opposition given he loathes Laschet who he believes cost him the top job. He would argue the SDP won most seats so has the right to lead the government and without CSU support a Union, Green, FDP government would not have a majority.

    The likeliest outcome however remains a Scholz led government with the Greens and FDP
    I disagree on the basis the right wing libertarians the FDP neither have enough in common with greens and SPD, also know junior partner in coalition with them weakens their voice and electoral chances. The most likeliest outcome is CSU, FDP green or CSU SPD.

    Watch as FDP kill your most likely outcome stone dead.
    Surely it would be SPD CDU/CSU?
  • Trump will be the nominee.

    Up to the American people then. Do they want to live in a democracy or not?

    I am not hopeful frankly. I hope there is a small unit somewhere in Whitehall planning what we do when this happens and America becomes a monarchy run by a total lunatic and his family.

    Is their plan pledge fealty and ask to be governor of the UK?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,927
    edited September 28

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
    The mules should be treated like drugs mules - 10 years minimum, unless you’re doing an awful lot of talking.
    What would they say that could be of the slightest use? The bank can already see where the payment went.
    Oh well, 10 years then.

    More importantly, lots of newspaper headlines that if someone asks you to receive £30k in your bank account and immediately transfer £25k abroad somewhere, it’s going to cost you 10 years.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,833

    Carnyx said:

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Not entirely impossible. Water treatment chemicals etc.
    Indeed. Although the Wessex Water van just outside the village may have some knowledge of our latest crisis.
    Wessex water have a cool live info map on their website which will tell you whats going on. We had a nearby water main burst last year and it was really helpful to (a) not panic as it’s not just us and (b) tell us when fixed.
    Yes thanks - seen that. So far it only says the equvalent of 'Houston, we have a problem'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Just hearing about flatworm penis fencing.
    Can go on for hours. The loser gets impregnated.
    Some have evolved more than one penis.
    Which is a tad unsporting.
  • Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Would it be cynical to suggest the banks prefer fraudsters to steal from current accounts (ie our money) rather than from credit cards (ie the banks' money)
    To be cynical, a lot of current security practices make it easier for the fraudsters. Just yesterday I upgraded my phone. To do so, I had to answer some security questions and give part of my password. This is to protect me so that you, for instance, cannot mess with my phone account. Trouble is, it also conditions me to answer unthinkingly anyone else asking similar questions.

    Your phone rings. Hello Mr Victim, I'm calling from your bank/isp/bookmaker. Before we go any further can I just check I'm speaking to the account holder? What is your pet cat's mother's first school? You get the picture. And if you won't fall for it, what about your old Aunt Betty who's in a care home?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,681
    On topic, if Trump wants the nomination, he will get it and it is increasingly clear he does. Also, he is playing a smart game by keeping relatively quiet. That might not be a popular idea on here given the consensus that Trump is a stupid buffoon but he is a lot smarter than many give him credit for.

    There was also a good piece by Conrad Black today, which won’t please many on here but the link is below. With regards to his comments on the 2020 election, they will make many here choke but, quite frankly, that’s not important - this is what the GOP is thinking about what happened in November:

    https://amgreatness.com/2021/09/27/democrats-repeat-the-mistakes-of-2016/

    Final point. I’m noticing a worrying trend on here that, if Trump does run again in 2024, the only way he will win is by fraud / illegitimate means ie his election will be illegitimate. Ironically, there is a fair bit of overlap between those who are the strongest in pushing this view and those who are most shrill about saying how the GOP’s conduct remains the biggest threat to American democracy. It doesn’t seem to occur to many on here that Trump may win because people will be sick of Biden’s incompetence but it is worrying that we are starting to see the building blocks being out in place to claim any Trump 2024 win is, by default, illegitimate.
  • Evening all :)

    Recovering from my cold slowly. Just got a nice 6K run in and feeling good.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58718835

    Keir Starmer gets it, it’s time to tell the left where to stick it.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    OT credit card fraud has been overtaken by APP (authorised push payments) for the first time.
    https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report

    APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
    https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)

    Given how much inconvenience the KYC stuff from banks imposes on all of us, how come they never appear to be able to identify the account holder recipients of all these scam transfers?
    @TheScreamingEagles might have a better idea. Aiui, the money will end up abroad, out of our jurisdiction. It is quite possible that intermediate payees are also victims that have been taken over by the fraudsters. And if I can steal your identity, why can't I take over your bank account or even set up a new one in your name under my control? As well as stealing your vote!
    Yes I think the money goes abroad very quickly and through multiple jurisdictions.

    I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.

    i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.

    Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
    Doesn't solve the problem as there are likely to be UK bank accounts as the first point of call and they will be opted out.

    Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
    The mules should be treated like drugs mules - 10 years minimum, unless you’re doing an awful lot of talking.
    What would they say that could be of the slightest use? The bank can already see where the payment went.
    Oh well, 10 years then.

    More importantly, lots of newspaper headlines that if someone asks you to receive £30k in your bank account and immediately transfer £25k abroad somewhere, it’s going to cost you 10 years.
    And when I set up an account in your name, under my control? Still happy with your 10 year sentence?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,086
    dixiedean said:

    Just hearing about flatworm penis fencing.
    Can go on for hours. The loser gets impregnated.
    Some have evolved more than one penis.
    Which is a tad unsporting.

    Where do they stand on self-identification?
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 477
    edited September 28
    What has happened in America?
    A few days before I was born in 1960, 43 year old John F Kennedy (Dem) narrowly beat 47 year old Richard Nixon (Gop)

    Sixty years on and there's almost exactly the same result for the parties, except that Nixon was a VP seeking election as President not a sitting President like Trump.

    The big difference is, the candidates last year were 74 and 77 and the older man won. How come people my age or maybe a bit younger couldn't win either party's nomination?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,705
    dixiedean said:

    Just hearing about flatworm penis fencing.

    Where?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,833

    O/T

    Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.

    (I blame Brexit 😜)

    Let them drink Evian.
    Eau no!
This discussion has been closed.