Punters increasingly think Trump will be the WH2024 GOP nominee – politicalbetting.com
Punters increasingly think Trump will be the WH2024 GOP nominee – politicalbetting.com
We haven’t looked at the US for some time – maybe because President Biden makes it so much less newsworthy than his predecessor.
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Whether it is sufficiently less unlikely to bet against...
DeSantis trails Charlie Crist in the latest Florida 2022 governor polls so he may not even run therefore if he loses the governorship next year
@JeremyCliffe
1h
As a rule of thumb, you can usually learn something about what is really going on in German politics by watching where Markus Söder's tactical sensors are leading him. And he seems to think that Armin Laschet is toast.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1442851399344271361?s=20
If Union get right into ein Aderlass is that the prospect of any sort of coalition oot the window, or would getting rid of Laschet improve their chances?
Then it will be someone who wins by attacking Trump as a loser, sellout, traitor, and wet liberal, who didn't have the guts to go through with a coup.
This wouldn’t surprise me at all.
That is, on your own chaps and chappettes.
Never mind petrol shortages, our mains water has been cut for the past hour.
(I blame Brexit 😜)
Off topic - terrible non-queues at the two petrol stations I passed in Fraserburgh earlier. Herd-like mentality as hardy north-easterners followed each other to not queue pointlessly.
And this could be a very interesting primary. Donald Trump, born 1946, will be 78 years old. What chance that he stumbles over words, or slurs, or struggles with steps?
I think the scenario that I am most intrigued by is one where Trump announces he's running, maybe makes it through the first primaries (narrow wins in Iowa and NH), before suffering from some issue.
In those circumstances, what happens?
There are other interesting questions - most notably what happens in the 2022 midterms. The Republicans should walk them. But if they are seen as *another* referendum on Trump, then they might be somewhat closer than you might expect.
In just six weeks we have the Virginia Governors race. How close will it be? It was a 54:44 split in 2020. The Republicans would hope to run the Democrats pretty close, especially as Terry McAuliffe (their candidate) is not particularly popular. A Republican win (or very close result) would signal that they are really fired up.
has a previously fancied runner disappeared from the race?
KANZLERFRAGE | Umfrage zur Kanzlerpräferenz Forsa/RTL/n-tv
Scholz (SPD): 56% (+28)
Laschet (CDU): 11% (-2) !
DeSantis's problem (and it's a problem for all the Trump mini me's), is that they daren't run against Trump. But they need to be well positioned in case Trump can't run.
I think it is certain enough he runs and loyalty to Trump is a key component of being a Republican now according to polling.
Unfortunately for them, the policy and messaging from Team Starmer has been more than left wing enough this week, hasn’t it, leaving most of us thinking, what are the left on about? Reeves speech alone was full of enough left wing, green, Lexit appealing, Tory thumping policy than anything the left have said this week, you have to concede that?
At least Burgon admitted 2019 was a Brexit election, but not 17, so he’s halfway to getting that right.
https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/policy-and-guidance/reports-publications/2021-half-year-fraud-report
APP is where the bad guys trick people into making payments or transfers from their own accounts. West Mercia Police describe how it worked in a recent case.
https://www.westmercia.police.uk/news/west-mercia/news/2021/september/victim-loses-30k-to-fake-bt-caller-fraud/ (ht el reg)
Republicans don't want a smooth face over the evil, the want nakedly evil.
The likeliest outcome however remains a Scholz led government with the Greens and FDP
The petrol station where I finally found some fuel last Saturday had a delivery Saturday morning and has been closed for two solid days.
This is not quite over yet…
I mean, "Fucker" Carlson? Who could imagine *that* as President?
Was calm, but wasn't particularly firm.
Well, this happens for one of three reasons.
Firstly, the Republicans could have bad midterm elections. If they failed to gain the House, then I think that would scupper his chances, because more people would put their head above the parapet. (Worth remembering that polling suggests that around half of Republicans think Trump is a drag on the party's electoral chances.)
Secondly, there could be illness or death. Fred Trump lived until 93, so that's a clear sign of family longevity. But he's still going to be pushing 80 by the time of the next election, and people do occasionally get sick.
Thirdly, he could end up in some kind of legal trouble that would overshadow his bid. There are numerous lawsuits pending. One of them could stick.
(And I guess he could just decide not to... but that doesn't seem very likely.)
What are the chances? 20% for one, 15% for two, and 10% for three, at a guess. Anyone else have any thoughts?
Where we are... an epidemic among the unvaccinated.
If he runs I'm confident he will win the nomination again. Why? Most GOP politicians are so scared of Trump's relationship with his supporters that they have fallen into line on the lies about the election and January 6th. That suggests Trump has an unshakeable grip on the majority of GOP voters.
I'm much attracted to @edmundintokyo's suggestion that centrist Primary voters will give the Republican nomination to a centrist because the Democratic primary will be a foregone conclusion with Biden as an incumbent. But I think Trump's position is strong enough to break that pattern.
1. The only hope for the GOP is if the Trumpsters win primaries but fair badly in the mid-terms.
2. But, with things as they stand, and the liberal wing of the Democrats about to shit all over the moderates, killing the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they can force through a $5 trillion combined package which will not have the support of the independents in the suburbs, those Trumpsters may well end up shellacking the Dems in the mid-terms, at least in the House.
3. This kills any chance of reform from within for the GOP, meaning Trump is almost certainly its candidate in 2024.
4. If the Dems push further left, as Biden seems intent on doing (to my surprise), then Trump has a chance in 2024, which should really have otherwise been unthinkable.
But here's the thing. Trump doesn't want to be kingmaker, he wants to be king. And if he can't be king, he wants someone who he owns (i.e. a relative) to be king (or queen). He doesn't do loyalty.
EDIT: Further, if Trump doesn't run, that might signal he is finished. Which will have the creditors baying at the door. I think that he is pinning his hopes on running again.
I suppose he could finesse stepping down before he is thrown out.
It is the "moderate" Dems who are killing it and sinking the party's chances next year.
Just a barrier to entry that the banks are happy to entertain but aren’t interested in actually doing anything with.
Famously, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote three elections in a row, as he lost the Electoral College the second time.
Edit: Wiki tells me he had much sway with the 'Mugwump' wing of the Republicans. Who names their political wing 'Mugwump'? Because more should.
There is no shortage of fuel, just an excess of moronic behaviour. How on earth would we respond to a real crisis?
Robert Taylor" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/28/covid-has-made-us-nation-hysterics-time-get-grip/
One of my favourite pub quiz questions from last year was that Biden will become the 46th President, so how many people have been President before him? Answer, of course, 44.
However, in 1848 he had split with the Democrats over Texas and slavery and was a candidate for the Free Soil Party, which polled 10% of the vote and won no EC votes.
Edit - one thing we should perhaps consider is that Trump might try that if thwarted in seeking the Republican nomination. He’s just fool enough to think of himself as having Theodore Roosevelt’s charisma and popularity and believe he could go one better up against Biden at the head of an ego trip Party.
ETA scooped by @Sandpit
I wonder if it would be worth implementing something like clearing for bank transfers.
i.e. Unless you specifically opt out of it, any bank transfers made by a consumer the funds are not allowed to leave the country for 3 days, regardless of how many banks the money flows through.
Could save hundreds of millions per year from getting to criminal gangs.
Remember that the first person is likely to be a mule using their bank account to receive and forward money in the hope of getting a few quid.
A friend's sister and husband have become "conspiricized", replaced most of their friends with online nutters, no longer talk to my friend, came down with covid, are using ventilators, still deny that covid exists, and have attacked a nurse. I can really sympathize with some of our overworked NHS staff who might occasionally query their motivation.
I suspect that were the pair American they would probably be solid Trumpians. There are a lot of such specimens out there. God save us. It may be we can't do it on our own.
Up to the American people then. Do they want to live in a democracy or not?
I am not hopeful frankly. I hope there is a small unit somewhere in Whitehall planning what we do when this happens and America becomes a monarchy run by a total lunatic and his family.
Watch as FDP kill your most likely outcome stone dead.
As long as the person defrauded notices within 3 days, and the banks/police act quickly any accounts its flowing through can be flagged, frozen and the money kept in the UK system.
Wide ranging in loss of touch and trust with mainstream views. Can't do anything but refuse to engage.
More importantly, lots of newspaper headlines that if someone asks you to receive £30k in your bank account and immediately transfer £25k abroad somewhere, it’s going to cost you 10 years.
Can go on for hours. The loser gets impregnated.
Some have evolved more than one penis.
Which is a tad unsporting.
Your phone rings. Hello Mr Victim, I'm calling from your bank/isp/bookmaker. Before we go any further can I just check I'm speaking to the account holder? What is your pet cat's mother's first school? You get the picture. And if you won't fall for it, what about your old Aunt Betty who's in a care home?
There was also a good piece by Conrad Black today, which won’t please many on here but the link is below. With regards to his comments on the 2020 election, they will make many here choke but, quite frankly, that’s not important - this is what the GOP is thinking about what happened in November:
https://amgreatness.com/2021/09/27/democrats-repeat-the-mistakes-of-2016/
Final point. I’m noticing a worrying trend on here that, if Trump does run again in 2024, the only way he will win is by fraud / illegitimate means ie his election will be illegitimate. Ironically, there is a fair bit of overlap between those who are the strongest in pushing this view and those who are most shrill about saying how the GOP’s conduct remains the biggest threat to American democracy. It doesn’t seem to occur to many on here that Trump may win because people will be sick of Biden’s incompetence but it is worrying that we are starting to see the building blocks being out in place to claim any Trump 2024 win is, by default, illegitimate.
Recovering from my cold slowly. Just got a nice 6K run in and feeling good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58718835
Keir Starmer gets it, it’s time to tell the left where to stick it.
A few days before I was born in 1960, 43 year old John F Kennedy (Dem) narrowly beat 47 year old Richard Nixon (Gop)
Sixty years on and there's almost exactly the same result for the parties, except that Nixon was a VP seeking election as President not a sitting President like Trump.
The big difference is, the candidates last year were 74 and 77 and the older man won. How come people my age or maybe a bit younger couldn't win either party's nomination?