The German election looks very tight – politicalbetting.com

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

Some come back from the SPD.

22.52 score - looks pretty firm now - SPD 26, CDU 24.5, Greens 13.9, FDP 11.5, AfD 11.5, Linke 5.0 (probably just safe but the main remaining uncertainty). That makes Red-Green-Red mathrmatically impossible, so SPD-Green-FDP still the most likely.

Sounds good to me.

OT We've had visitors this weekend so I have not been following politics but has Starmer actually won today?

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

Now that I'm sufficiently recovered from last night - London is bouncing. At least Camden is, I don't think it's fresher's week either because everyone looked sort of around 25-30 rather than of student age. We went to two bars and eventually a late night one with a dancefloor playing 90s grunge. Absolutely fucking packed. Queue at the bar was at least 3 people deep and the dancefloor was just rammed. Got offered coke and mandy at least three times as well so London's party drug dealers are definitely back in business as well.

The whole conversation about masks to stop spread just seems so irrelevant when places like this are open.

All in all the old normal is back, if you want to experience it. People are out there living the old normal and that is going to become more and more common over the next few months until there's just a few holdouts banging on about stopping the virus and tutting behind their masks at the rest of society.

Milton Keynes was heaving too. Well the Tesco fuel stop was..

Based on my conversations with friends and family and passing acquaintances in the last week or so I would say that as the school reopening has not led to a huge iSAGE-level surge, most peeps are sayings 'ok, great, that's it, this is over', 'I'm going full speed from now on'.

may we get Freshers Weeks out of the way first please.

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

And I think what polling on this we have the general population back on on this Big G.

However, where HY might be right, an important section of Tory support may be in the oppose column?

As long as it keeps them in their seats they will not complain but what @HYUFD is blinded on, is that the country have moved as a body left wanting more covid regulations and lockdowns if necessary and absolutely spending on the NHS and social care, and listening to him at the UN he is really pushing climate change for all its worth which is very much today's topic

For all his faults, Boris understands this and is moving onto that agenda and if some of his right wingers complain then he will just carry on anyway

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Charles said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

dixiedean said:

FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.

Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.

It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?

Indeed, his marriage to an underage American has faded into history, alongside his Seventies slot "Schoolgirl of the week". That many of his groupies were young, and indeed underage is not something he has ever hidden, and while she was 15 he did actually marry her.

http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.

Cor. Did you really mean that.

Paedophilia is “sexual misbehaviour”

His ability to spot good music transcends it?

FFS

And Ezra Pound was just funky with his Fascism. As was Dali. And D'Annunzio.

One can only imagine what would happen in Mao had been a poet of note.... Or Hitler a genius painter.....

Latest total of votes actually counted in Germany, with 140 of 299 constituencies counted:

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

I am not a free market liberal and nor is Boris

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

Farooq said:

gealbhan said:

Farooq said:

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

I said that earlier, but HY and others disagreed with me. HY said some rubbish about its not an international yardstick, but yardstick for each nation. Which is rubbish and it means US Dems are ‘left’ on basis they are to the left of GOP.

You are absolutely right Big G, Boris is nationalising, Biden will never consider, that is the sort of thing the yardstick is measured on.

You can choose one metric to compare two politicians on, and make one appear more left than the other.
But taken across the piece, Biden is to the left of Boris, no question.

I’m definitely questioning that! You are wrong. It’s who you vote with on economics, tax and spend, nationalise privatise, welfare or cut welfare that really matters, and that puts Biden and most Dems much to the right of Boris.

Who you vote with is entirely irrelevant, what you vote for is what counts.
Look down this nice summary. Much of what's in there falls into the first two categories:
1. Yes, I could imagine Boris doing that.
2. No, that's probably too left wing for Boris.
3. No, that's probably too right wing for Boris.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Joe_Biden#Tax

Thanks I had a look. I stand by what I said. UK and US in different place as nations. The US more right wing, more capitalist. They don’t have a left right split in politics like we have, two right of centre parties in relation to capitalism and socialism GOP and Dem voting actually come from the Civil War.

Boris Downing Street is to the left economically to Biden’s White House.

No it isn't, Biden is left of Boris. Though you could equally make the argument that the Nordic countries conservative parties are sometimes left of the UK Labour Party, certainly New Labour let alone the Tories.

The US is the most rightwing nation in the western world on most issues (apart from maybe Switzerland) so obviously its politics are more rightwing. I would accept Boris is left of Trump however he is not left of Biden and certainly not left of Sanders.

When we had Thatcher as PM though she was so rightwing in UK terms she was even right of the GOP president in her final term, Bush Snr

Would you call New Labour centre left or centre? They were without doubt centre right on the economic yardstick.

Blair was centrist, Brown was certainly centre left

Andy_JS said:

Freiburg has been won by the Greens.

I was there just last Wednesday and am not surprised. The town claims to generate more solar power than the entire UK.

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

I suggest that Boris Johnson’s political positions are designed to ensure Boris Johnson’s personal advantage. The fact that he is a member of the Conservative Party is because his social circle was, not because of any loyalty to whatever principles the Conservative Party may have.

He was briefly in the centrist SDP at Oxford in the 1980s which he used as a vehicle to get elected President of the Oxford Union when the SDP was more fashionable at university than the Tories but then so were a few Tory MPs, he is though certainly not centre left

Personal advantage again; at the time it looked the SDP was going to sweep the board. And he was quite happy to lie to the Queen.

IanB2 said:

Andy_JS said:

Freiburg has been won by the Greens.

I was there just last Wednesday and am not surprised. The town claims to generate more solar power than the entire UK.

Hah! But I bet we beat them hollow on wind.

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

I suggest that Boris Johnson’s political positions are designed to ensure Boris Johnson’s personal advantage. The fact that he is a member of the Conservative Party is because his social circle was, not because of any loyalty to whatever principles the Conservative Party may have.

He was briefly in the centrist SDP at Oxford in the 1980s which he used as a vehicle to get elected President of the Oxford Union when the SDP was more fashionable at university than the Tories but then so were a few Tory MPs, he is though certainly not centre left

Keep digging…

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

OldKingCole said:

I suggest that Boris Johnson’s political positions are designed to ensure Boris Johnson’s personal advantage. The fact that he is a member of the Conservative Party is because his social circle was, not because of any loyalty to whatever principles the Conservative Party may have.

I have no doubt that is spot on and we are witnessing it

Benpointer said:

OT We've had visitors this weekend so I have not been following politics but has Starmer actually won today?

He’s ensured the Greens get a Labour conference boost, and said that some men have cervixes I think

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

Then why is your party raising all the taxes mate?

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

I am not a free market liberal and nor is Boris

Do you believe in anything other than ‘inherited wealth’?

The monarchy and the Church of England and the Union.

I am also mildly socially conservative, and relatively hawkish in foreign policy and support choice in public services.

Otherwise I am generally centrist economically

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

Farooq said:

gealbhan said:

Farooq said:

gealbhan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

I said that earlier, but HY and others disagreed with me. HY said some rubbish about its not an international yardstick, but yardstick for each nation. Which is rubbish and it means US Dems are ‘left’ on basis they are to the left of GOP.

You are absolutely right Big G, Boris is nationalising, Biden will never consider, that is the sort of thing the yardstick is measured on.

You can choose one metric to compare two politicians on, and make one appear more left than the other.
But taken across the piece, Biden is to the left of Boris, no question.

I’m definitely questioning that! You are wrong. It’s who you vote with on economics, tax and spend, nationalise privatise, welfare or cut welfare that really matters, and that puts Biden and most Dems much to the right of Boris.

Who you vote with is entirely irrelevant, what you vote for is what counts.
Look down this nice summary. Much of what's in there falls into the first two categories:
1. Yes, I could imagine Boris doing that.
2. No, that's probably too left wing for Boris.
3. No, that's probably too right wing for Boris.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Joe_Biden#Tax

Thanks I had a look. I stand by what I said. UK and US in different place as nations. The US more right wing, more capitalist. They don’t have a left right split in politics like we have, two right of centre parties in relation to capitalism and socialism GOP and Dem voting actually come from the Civil War.

Boris Downing Street is to the left economically to Biden’s White House.

No it isn't, Biden is left of Boris. Though you could equally make the argument that the Nordic countries conservative parties are sometimes left of the UK Labour Party, certainly New Labour let alone the Tories.

The US is the most rightwing nation in the western world on most issues (apart from maybe Switzerland) so obviously its politics are more rightwing. I would accept Boris is left of Trump however he is not left of Biden and certainly not left of Sanders.

When we had Thatcher as PM though she was so rightwing in UK terms she was even right of the GOP president in her final term, Bush Snr

Would you call New Labour centre left or centre? They were without doubt centre right on the economic yardstick.

Really? So introducing the minimum wage, pumping huge amounts of money into the public sector (schools, hospitals, Sure Start etc. etc.) and increasing the state pension significantly is centre right economics?

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

Then why is your party raising all the taxes mate?

They aren't, NI is not a tax it is National Insurance, income tax and IHT are not going up

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

I never said he was near Corbyn or Rayner, but he is left of centre no matter what you may claim

He isn't. if he was he would be increasing immigration, increasing welfare spending, increasing income tax and IHT and very woke

Visa quotas increasing immigration, pension and benefits rises in Apri, of approximately 3.4%, NI increases and rumours of inheritance tax changes rather contradicts your view

A points system to replace EU free movement, triple lock ended and pensions frozen, NI raised to avoid income tax and IHT rises and most nations fund healthcare through insurance anyway

Pensions are not frozen, they rise by cpi in April if above 2.5% and current forecast is 3.4%

NI rise is not connected to the rumoured rise in IHT and is nowhere near enough for social care

And I have no idea what you are talking about most fund health care through insurance, a privileged few maybe

I cannot believe you write such nonsense

Most US and continental healthcare is funded via insurance

To compare the US and European systems.... just no. They are not even vaguely similar. Apart from the fact that some part of the European systems use an insurance principle.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

People relying on inheritance or family handouts does not 'improve social mobility'. It makes it harder for those from poorer backgrounds to get on!

😠

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

I am not a free market liberal and nor is Boris

Do you believe in anything other than ‘inherited wealth’?

The monarchy and the Church of England and the Union.

I am also mildly socially conservative, and relatively hawkish in foreign policy and support choice in public services.

Otherwise I am generally centrist economically

What would be to the right of you economically?

Malmesbury said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

dixiedean said:

FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.

Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.

It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?

Indeed, his marriage to an underage American has faded into history, alongside his Seventies slot "Schoolgirl of the week". That many of his groupies were young, and indeed underage is not something he has ever hidden, and while she was 15 he did actually marry her.

http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.

Cor. Did you really mean that.

Paedophilia is “sexual misbehaviour”

His ability to spot good music transcends it?

FFS

And Ezra Pound was just funky with his Fascism. As was Dali. And D'Annunzio.

One can only imagine what would happen in Mao had been a poet of note.... Or Hitler a genius painter.....

Yes, but Peel was fairly typical of his time in the music business. There are fairly well authenticated similar stories about David Bowie with a 14 year old for example. Plenty more with still living musicians too, which I shall not mention but easy to find if you look, including some of the biggest names of British music.

My point was that some things considered wrong now were not then (and vice versa too).

It is like cancelling Churchill because he was a racist and white supremacist, or Orwell for anti-semitism and homophobia. None of these were unusual views for their time.

I am not saying that John Peels musical influence permits such behaviour, so much as saying that life was different back then, and that plenty of historical figures did things that would be considered very differently if done today.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

You may have to withdrawn that post next month

Money has to come from somewhere

I'm sure that they can squeeze a bit more out of poor kids, don't worry.

No - this budget has to start tackling wealth and I have reason to believe Rishi will step up

Let's see

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

I am not a free market liberal and nor is Boris

That was a hair's breadth away from being "I am not a number, I am a free man"

Johnson is coming over as a high taxation interventionist. I might be warming to his politics.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

I am not a free market liberal and nor is Boris

Do you believe in anything other than ‘inherited wealth’?

The monarchy and the Church of England and the Union.

I am also mildly socially conservative, and relatively hawkish in foreign policy and support choice in public services.

Otherwise I am generally centrist economically

What would be to the right of you economically?

I opposed cutting spending to 35% of gdp for example as Osborne wanted, 35-40% is fine by me.

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

@HYUFD and other PB Tories:

"UK suspends competition law to boost fuel supplies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

But wait... I thought competition was the solution to everything?

You must admit the circumstances aren't normal!

?? If market competition only works in 'normal' circumstances who determines 'normal'?

It's why governments have contingency plans for a whole range of different eventualities. to deal with circumstances that aren't "normal". A run on fuel is not normal. Makes sense things might have to be done different temporarily until things revert back to normal.

Yes. I don't really have views on market competition and the like - I don't really understand such things - but as hard as it may be to determine what is normal sometimes, it seems pretty self evident that just because you do something in an extreme moment, or stop doing something in an extreme moment, it doesn't prove that thing must be right to do/ not do in normal times.

Boris Johnson is NOT a left of centre politician. C'mon. We know this game. It just seeks to redefine the right as being centre ground and the true left as being something totally extreme and off the scale.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

Then why is your party raising all the taxes mate?

They aren't, NI is not a tax it is National Insurance, income tax and IHT are not going up

😂

This is a banker

Of the merchant variety?

MikeL said:

After 159/299 seats:

CDU/CSU 30.0
SPD 26.4

Is that right? Seems contrary to narrative?

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Function of fact that constituencies in areas favoring the Union (for example Bavaria) have been counted and reported quicker.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

I never said he was near Corbyn or Rayner, but he is left of centre no matter what you may claim

He isn't. if he was he would be increasing immigration, increasing welfare spending, increasing income tax and IHT and very woke

Visa quotas increasing immigration, pension and benefits rises in Apri, of approximately 3.4%, NI increases and rumours of inheritance tax changes rather contradicts your view

A points system to replace EU free movement, triple lock ended and pensions frozen, NI raised to avoid income tax and IHT rises and most nations fund healthcare through insurance anyway

Pensions are not frozen, they rise by cpi in April if above 2.5% and current forecast is 3.4%

NI rise is not connected to the rumoured rise in IHT and is nowhere near enough for social care

And I have no idea what you are talking about most fund health care through insurance, a privileged few maybe

I cannot believe you write such nonsense

Most US and continental healthcare is funded via insurance

Irrelevant as that is not the case in the UK

The NI rise is mainly to fund health and social care.

Lloyd George set up NI to fund healthcare, the state pension and unemployment benefits

FT reporting that the treasury is considering lowering the student loan repayment threshold to below 20k. If that goes through this government will have cut my take home pay as a new grad by ~£150/month between that and the NI tax hike.

The treasury desperately needs some young people in it, if so they'd cotton on to just how deeply popular, and fiscally beneficial putting pensioners into the thunderdome would be.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

Then why is your party raising all the taxes mate?

They aren't, NI is not a tax it is National Insurance, income tax and IHT are not going up

Yet

They aren't, Tory voters would defect en masse to RefUK in the home counties and London if IHT went up or stay at home at the next election. Thus bang goes the Tory majority.

Boris knows that and would sack Sunak if he tried, he will not repeat the disaster of May's dementia tax that lost her her majority

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

.

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

JosiasJessop said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Just seen that Kwasi is set to approve the RR mini-nuke reactors.

I wonder if any of them will ever actually get built.

I think they're based on the PWR3 design that RR did for the Dreadnought class submarines.

(And yes, I know that a chunk of the design of PWR3 is American.)

Which is interesting because that's a highly enriched uranium reactor. The safety implications of that in a civilian nuclear programme will be extremely negative.

Perhaps not:

"It would use 4.95% enriched fuel"

From this:
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx
and this:
https://aris.iaea.org/PDF/UK-SMR_2020.pdf

So if they are correct, then the RR SMR would use low-enriched uranium.

Show me a Tory MP that wants a RollsRoyce mini-nuke in their constituency.

You don't need to distribute them widely, the national grid still exists. The point of these is that they are manufactured on a production line (sort of) and then shipped to a location. One imagines you'd put 10-15 of these in a single location, probably those places where nuclear power plants already exist, given the infrastructure also already exists there.

And if one goes up - they all go up! (Or at the very least, go offline....for a few hundred years.)

It does nothing on security of supply.

That's not quite true.

Let's not forget, the other reactors are Chernobyl kept working for a surprisingly long time after the... accident.

Well that's reassured me here in the Hinkley Point 30km blast zone.

Don't be such a wuss.

You should be proud to live near such a monument to French engineering, Chinese money, and British procurement.

French you say. So the engineering sophistication and reliability of an early Citroen DS.

Where's my tin hat?

IIRC the sketches of the deployment of the mini-nuke reactors showed them a few hundred yards apart, with berms around them.

The locations were indeed planned for existing nuclear plants.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

I never said he was near Corbyn or Rayner, but he is left of centre no matter what you may claim

He isn't. if he was he would be increasing immigration, increasing welfare spending, increasing income tax and IHT and very woke

Visa quotas increasing immigration, pension and benefits rises in Apri, of approximately 3.4%, NI increases and rumours of inheritance tax changes rather contradicts your view

A points system to replace EU free movement, triple lock ended and pensions frozen, NI raised to avoid income tax and IHT rises and most nations fund healthcare through insurance anyway

Pensions are not frozen, they rise by cpi in April if above 2.5% and current forecast is 3.4%

NI rise is not connected to the rumoured rise in IHT and is nowhere near enough for social care

And I have no idea what you are talking about most fund health care through insurance, a privileged few maybe

I cannot believe you write such nonsense

Most US and continental healthcare is funded via insurance

Irrelevant as that is not the case in the UK

The NI rise is mainly to fund health and social care.

Lloyd George set up NI to fund healthcare, the state pension and unemployment benefits

Employee NI is not hypothecated though; it's just a tax on (earned) income. If you cannot see that NI is just another income tax you're even denser than I thought.

Andy_JS said:

The AfD seem to be doing surprisingly well in Saxony and Thuringia. They've picked up a number of constituencies in those areas.

Furchtbar! (=appalling)

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

I never said he was near Corbyn or Rayner, but he is left of centre no matter what you may claim

He isn't. if he was he would be increasing immigration, increasing welfare spending, increasing income tax and IHT and very woke

Visa quotas increasing immigration, pension and benefits rises in Apri, of approximately 3.4%, NI increases and rumours of inheritance tax changes rather contradicts your view

A points system to replace EU free movement, triple lock ended and pensions frozen, NI raised to avoid income tax and IHT rises and most nations fund healthcare through insurance anyway

Pensions are not frozen, they rise by cpi in April if above 2.5% and current forecast is 3.4%

NI rise is not connected to the rumoured rise in IHT and is nowhere near enough for social care

And I have no idea what you are talking about most fund health care through insurance, a privileged few maybe

I cannot believe you write such nonsense

Most US and continental healthcare is funded via insurance

Irrelevant as that is not the case in the UK

The NI rise is mainly to fund health and social care.

Lloyd George set up NI to fund healthcare, the state pension and unemployment benefits

It does not go anywhere near funding it

dixiedean said:

FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

Savile - like all sexual predators - hid in plain sight. He groomed the police, the BBC and senior politicians. He used the law to ensure that people did not speak up. He cloaked himself in virtue. This is what many predators and fraudsters do. I could give you lots of examples. The IICSA reports detail many in a large number of institutions. See here - https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/07/29/two-lessons-learnt/

They still do it. And yet we are either incapable or unwilling to learn the lessons. As to why whistleblowers don't speak up, even though they know ought to know or suspect, well let me ask the men amongst you this. Every woman I know has suffered sexual harassment of some kind, some of it the most serious there is. Statistically, you must know men who have raped or sexually harassed women. How often have you blown the whistle about their conduct? And, if not, why not?

The fact is that society needs whistleblowers. But it does not love people who do blow the whistle. And the tension between the two is why whistleblowers are much less frequent than they should be and why wrongdoers get away with their crimes and appalling behaviours.

PS For any who might be wondering, I think for myself. Anyone telling me what to think or thinking that I mouth other people's talking points is a fool. Though I find it amusing to watch. Disagree with me, by all means, but do me the credit of engaging with my arguments

MikeL said:

After 159/299 seats:

CDU/CSU 30.0
SPD 26.4

Is that right? Seems contrary to narrative?

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

The headline figures are done on the list vote. I think the numbers you quote is the constituency vote.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

I never said he was near Corbyn or Rayner, but he is left of centre no matter what you may claim

He isn't. if he was he would be increasing immigration, increasing welfare spending, increasing income tax and IHT and very woke

Visa quotas increasing immigration, pension and benefits rises in Apri, of approximately 3.4%, NI increases and rumours of inheritance tax changes rather contradicts your view

A points system to replace EU free movement, triple lock ended and pensions frozen, NI raised to avoid income tax and IHT rises and most nations fund healthcare through insurance anyway

Pensions are not frozen, they rise by cpi in April if above 2.5% and current forecast is 3.4%

NI rise is not connected to the rumoured rise in IHT and is nowhere near enough for social care

And I have no idea what you are talking about most fund health care through insurance, a privileged few maybe

I cannot believe you write such nonsense

Most US and continental healthcare is funded via insurance

Irrelevant as that is not the case in the UK

The NI rise is mainly to fund health and social care.

Lloyd George set up NI to fund healthcare, the state pension and unemployment benefits

Employee NI is not hypothecated though; it's just a tax on (earned) income. If you cannot see that NI is just another income tax you're even denser than I thought.

He knows it’s a tax it just doesn’t fit the narrative

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

Then why is your party raising all the taxes mate?

They aren't, NI is not a tax it is National Insurance, income tax and IHT are not going up

Yet

IFS calls NI a "tax". So I don't think @HYUFD is correct.

rottenborough said:

Rayner is a bit AOC isn't she?

Looks like self-promotion wise she has played a blinder this weekend.

Last 2 Saturday Times, big profile Wes Streeting, big profile Angela Rayner, both overt personal promo pieces. We make of this what we will.

Quincel said:

Holy cow: Berliners have voted for this law to seize at 'well below market rates' over 200k properties from corporate landlords. The ballot is non-binding and the law may well be unconstitutional, but a dramatic moment nonetheless.

https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-faces-expropriation-vote-what-happens-if-the-people-say-yes/a-59070328

They've clearly been taking political advice from the missus.
Baulked at the executions, mind. Lightweights.

HYUFD said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

People relying on inheritance or family handouts does not 'improve social mobility'. It makes it harder for those from poorer backgrounds to get on!

😠

No it doesn't, you don't improve social mobility by taking peoples' family homes you just end up with even lower home ownership.

Thatcher's council house sales was a measure that actually did improve social mobility, as did the expansion of white collar jobs in the 1950s and 1960s and as did many grammar schools

Who is talking of taking peoples homes..

Inheritance tax is taken after death and there is £325,000 threshold which for most people outside London would exempt them

You need to get real about this

MikeL said:

After 159/299 seats:

CDU/CSU 30.0
SPD 26.4

Is that right? Seems contrary to narrative?

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

Think a lot of Bavaria reported early.

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

Foxy said:

turbotubbs said:

dixiedean said:

FPT Re Jimmy Saville.
He groomed an entire nation's Establishment. Using him to have a pop at just the BBC is a bit reductive.
Strangely. It was widely rumoured about amongst the younger generation. We knew not to go to his club in Manchester. Don't know anyone my age who thought him other than a total creep.
But our elders and betters couldn't contain their gushing enthusiasm for the living saint amongst us.
Any forensic dramatisation might expose the hypocrisy of an entire generation.

His fundamental weirdness was hidden in plain sight. You’d never go near a random who looked like that in the street, but because he was Jimmy Saville, somehow he was ok. I’d love to know the full truth of who new what about him. I know attitudes have changed, and for the better, but you’d have to think some who knew what he did wish they’d tried to do something back then.

Sex with young groupies was considered a bit of a perk in those days, in a way we would not tolerate now.

It should not have been 'tolerated' then. The Summer of Love and the swinging sixties have a great deal to answer for. It was often great for men; less so for women.

On a related note: how the heck is John Peel still revered?

Indeed, his marriage to an underage American has faded into history, alongside his Seventies slot "Schoolgirl of the week". That many of his groupies were young, and indeed underage is not something he has ever hidden, and while she was 15 he did actually marry her.

http://andywalmsley.blogspot.com/2014/10/peel-reveals.html?m=1

I think the difference is one of scale, but also of emphasis. Peel had a transparent excellence at spotting new musical trends that transcends his sexual misbehaviour. His evening show in the Eighties was a cornucopia of the brilliant and the avant garde alongside stuff like The Fall, which no matter how much I listen, I cannot get.

Cor. Did you really mean that.

Paedophilia is “sexual misbehaviour”

His ability to spot good music transcends it?

FFS

And Ezra Pound was just funky with his Fascism. As was Dali. And D'Annunzio.

One can only imagine what would happen in Mao had been a poet of note.... Or Hitler a genius painter.....

Yes, but Peel was fairly typical of his time in the music business. There are fairly well authenticated similar stories about David Bowie with a 14 year old for example. Plenty more with still living musicians too, which I shall not mention but easy to find if you look, including some of the biggest names of British music.

My point was that some things considered wrong now were not then (and vice versa too).

It is like cancelling Churchill because he was a racist and white supremacist, or Orwell for anti-semitism and homophobia. None of these were unusual views for their time.

I am not saying that John Peels musical influence permits such behaviour, so much as saying that life was different back then, and that plenty of historical figures did things that would be considered very differently if done today.

The age of consent was not 14 in the Sixties and Seventies, was it?

HYUFD said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

londonpubman said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Per betfair SPD have won. Thanks to @NickPalmer for the tip when it was 1.3.

If true then Boris will indeed be the only conservative leader left in the G7 apart from Japan (if you count the LDP as conservative which is debatable given their name).

The last time there was only 1 conservative in the G7 was Chirac from 1998-2000, again an equally charismatic figure like Boris able to defy the western tide to the centre left

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Boris has moved noticeably to the left so there is only Japan left then

He is still the leader of the main Conservative Party in the UK and his cut to UC and ending of free movement from the EU for example are hardly centre left actions.

Though yes he has positioned himself generally in the relative centre ground

Time for for Rishi to ameliorate the UC cut but he is left of centre and some distance from the right of the party

He is not left of centre, he is centrist on economics, populist on culture and social issues, he is miles away from Rayner and Corbyn.

He is not a pure Thatcherite but then most Tory PMs aren't

Social issues not even etched on the yardstick. Kate Hoey went hunting, but was rightly in the Labour Party for how she voted on economic questions.

Social issues are the yardstick which makes you a conservative as well as support for inheritance, being economically Thatcherite could make you a classical liberal as much as a conservative

I hope the rumours that Rishi is looking at inheritance tax are true

If they are he can kiss goodbye to any chance of any hope of being Tory leader and PM, there would be a revolution amongst Tory MPs and grassroots and we would lose our poll lead.

As May discovered in 2017 threatening to take peoples' inheritance is electoral suicide.

As Osborne discovered in 2007 however IHT cut proposals are extremely popular

Another nonsense post to be rowed back on when it happens

A rise in inheritance tax is a red line, the Tory Party has always been the party that has supported inherited wealth no matter what.

There would be a huge revolt from members and MPs in the home counties and posh parts of London and rightly so, Boris would probably have to sack him. Hence he will not do it

Can I ask you a hypothetical question.

If it was proveable that a rise in inheritance tax resulted in better social mobility and economic growth, would you still oppose it?

Yes because it is not conservative and anti family and anti preservation of wealth within the family.

Not that it would anyway, you improve social mobility by improving education standards and choice and getting more middle class jobs available not by taking peoples houses. You get economic growth by cutting taxes across the board not raising them

People relying on inheritance or family handouts does not 'improve social mobility'. It makes it harder for those from poorer backgrounds to get on!

😠

No it doesn't, you don't improve social mobility by taking peoples' family homes you just end up with even lower home ownership.

Thatcher's council house sales was a measure that actually did improve social mobility, as did the expansion of white collar jobs in the 1950s and 1960s and as did many grammar schools

We are not talking about 'taking people's homes'. Those fortunate enough to have these inheritances which they have got worked for ie unearned wealth need to pay a fair share in tax.

Also applies to those getting large capital transfers from mummy and daddy eg to buy properties etc.

We need to sort out the state of the nation's finances and proper tax on unearned wealth needs to be a key part of that.

You are talking about most under 65s in London and the SE here, south of Watford the average paid worker can only buy a property or get a deposit to buy a property with parental assistance or inheritance now.

Remove that and the Tories would face a 1997 style wipeout as their heartland vote collapsed.

Estates over £1 million still pay IHT anyway

The vast majority of people don't inherit much.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8522389/Parents-secretly-plan-leave-bigger-inheritance-children-expect.html

"...recent government statistics show the average inheritance is £11,000, but among those aged 55-64 it is £33,000 and among over-65s it is £20,000."